GOLD & SILVER: Debt Crisis, China Warnings & Why Stocks Are Soaring
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In this video, I spoke with Cam Currie, Awalé Resources, and Western Exploration.
Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:31 - Cam Currie Interview 50:28 - Very important warning 54:44 - Awalé Resources CEO Interview (TSX-V: ARIC) 01:48:03 - Western Exploration CEO Interview (TSX-V: WEX)
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Gold and gold equities are significantly undervalued as central banks globally shift away from US dollar reliance through sustained gold accumulation, creating a stealth bull market opportunity in mining equities that will accelerate once Western investors recognize the macroeconomic shift.
- Central banks have accumulated gold continuously since 2008 and escalated purchases in the last 3 years due to dollar weaponization concerns and debt worries
- Gold is at all-time highs but remains a non-Western story with minimal ETF flows into mining equities despite strong fundamentals
- The gold bull market follows a predictable pattern where smart money enters first (already happening with stocks up 50-100%), retail/institutional flows come later, creating significant upside
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The world currently has only one currency with no political attachment, no debt obligation, and no printing press: gold; this makes it the only pure form of money and explains why central banks continue to accumulate it despite all other assets being available.
“you're looking at a currency in the world if you're looking down the world today and you to choose between different currencies there's only one currency that has no political attachment no debt obligation and no printing press That's gold”
Since 1925, there have been 15 market corrections of 35% or more, and in 14 of those 15 corrections, gold went up by 45%, indicating that gold provides reliable downside protection in equity drawdowns; this pattern is recognizable to sophisticated institutional investors.
“since 1925 there's been 15 Market Corrections where the Market's corrected by 35% and of those 15 14 gold went up by 45%”
Treasury auction demand from foreign buyers is becoming a concern topic at major financial media outlets, raising the question of who will continue to finance U.S. Treasury deficit spending if foreign buyers reduce participation.
“treasury auctions next year they have to refinance $7 trillion with the treasuries what happens if the treasury auctions aren't in big demand from foreign buyers you know who's going to keep on find financing the treasury market and those are the things that that the last couple weeks some some commentators in CNBC have been talking about conc conerns about the treasury markets”
Global debt has increased from $200 trillion to $300 trillion over the last 10 years while gold supply increases only 1% annually, making gold's purchasing power relative to other currencies very strong because central banks and governments abuse their currency privileges through spending
“Global debts gone from $200 to $300 trillion in the last 10 years and the printing presses of central banks has continued and so if you really look at it you know gold supply has increased 1% a year for the last 15 years and so gold has stood the test of time Gold's purchasing power relative to all the other currencies has done very very well because Central bankers and governments abuse the privilege of their currencies”
Price action creates narrative and narrative creates ETF flows, so current gold all-time highs with narratives emerging about Western investors needing to pay attention to gold will eventually drive ETF money flows into gold and gold equities
“price action creates narrative and narrative creates ETF flows so as you just said we have gold at all-time highs...we're hearing from uh a number of mediums and uh and financial people in the United States talking about the fact the Western World should be paying attention to what's happening in the gold market”
There are very few pure silver plays with over 52% silver production as primary silver because silver is typically a byproduct, and big cap expends aren't happening on big projects where silver is a byproduct of polymetallic deposits
“silver is a byproduct too A lot of times there's very few s pure silver plays when I say pure silver over 52% silver production it's primary silver but silver is typically a byproduct and you're still not being seeing big cap expends on these big projects uh where silver is a byproduct of a poly metallic deposit”
Labor costs remain a problem in gold mining, energy prices have come down which should help margin expansion, but quarterly results need to be analyzed year-on-year not quarter-on-quarter, and there is margin expansion of about 70% on average year-over-year despite weaker quarters in seasonal rain season areas
“labor costs are still a problem I mean I hear that time and time again um you know Energy prices have been coming down so that should help with margin expansion um I think you have to look at it from a year- on-year basis not a quarter-on-quarter basis um because a from a year ago we are seeing margin expansion about 70% on average”
Aali doesn't need permits to drill but needs social license to operate based on community relations, with first quarter 2025 drilling target pending IP results that will help understand optimal drilling locations
“we don't need um we don't need a permit to drill we just need a social license to drill so um we just it's all part of the community relations uh thing...drilling q1...permits locals and everyone's happy”
West Africa exploration provides better value than Nevada due to much lower production costs and quicker timeline to production (7 years vs 18 years in Nevada), though it comes with geopolitical risk, but people overestimate West African risk based on recent events
“West Africa comes with its geopolitical risk but timeline risk is much much better and costs to put in production is much much lower...West Africa you can discover a deposit and have it in production in seven years whereas in Nevada be 18 years so West Africa comes with its geopolitical risk but timeline risk is much much better and costs to put in production is much much lower”
A discovery for Aali Resources is defined as economic drill intercepts within early stage program that are coherent across at least couple of lines or few holes, not a geochemical anomaly alone, making the 3.5 km footprint a geochemical anomaly but not yet a discovery
“a discovery is um after drilling you have got economic drill intercepts within an early stage duel program so um and and hopefully they're coherent across at least say a couple of lines or a few holes so that that that is for us what might constitute a discovery um but g g you know a geochem anomaly for us doesn't constitute a discovery”
IP survey planned for November-December after rice harvest to avoid damaging subsistence crops that people rely on for family feeding, with hope to pick up structural trend matching geochemistry and provide confidence for drilling targeting in Q1 2025
“Harvest for that would usually be in late October through November so uh we'll probably do it after that...we when you do I you walk lots of lines...to walk lots and lots of lines through subsistence crops is not really not pricket in Australian terms...we we'll wait for the Harvest to get going and then and then do the op when's that I mean if you had to be specific October November is Harvest so we would be looking at the I in in in you know November December”
The U.S. dollar is still the global reserve currency because the U.S. has the strongest capital markets and debt markets, which enables the U.S. to carry $34 trillion in debt that the rest of the world continues to finance; however, this privileged position is eroding as the rest of the world develops alternatives.
“not the depth of the US dollar US dollar is still is a reserve currency in the world because we have the strongest Capital markets debt markets and us has has enjoyed that privilege and that's why they've been able to escalate their debt to 34 trillion because the rest of the world buys their debt and transacts in US Dollars”
Western Exploration has two permanent water wells sufficient for exploration, with both expandable for future production; the company is in an area with good snowfall in winter that regenerates aquifers, and has water-sharing rights with Nevada Gold Mines joint venture.
“we've got two permanent water wells one that we use for expiration at Dolby George...our water wells have delivered water to us...we also have rights for some some uh drainages nearby that we share with Nevada gold mines joint venture”
From first drill hole to first ounce of production in a junior exploration company takes on average 18 years, making it extremely capital-intensive; constant shareholder issuance is required because junior companies with no cash flow must repeatedly return to capital markets every 5-6 months for funding.
“from first drill hold to First ounce now on average is 18 years...they have to come back to the Wicket five you know six months later and raise more money right”
China is increasing its gold reserves strategically by pulling bids and waiting for price softening before buying, and they view gold as creating their own gold standard as an alternative to holding US dollars backed by $34 trillion in debt
“China is is increasing their gold reserves what they report when they actually probably have are two different numbers...they're looking at creating an old their own gold standard because if you look at it you can own the US dollar which has $34 trillion in debt...so they in essence are increasing the gold reserves because they view gold as...they're looking at creating an old their own gold standard”
In August India lowered their import tax on silver from 15% to 8%, opening up the ability for their citizens to buy more silver because gold price was moving higher, representing another component of physical side demand
“in August we had a situation where India um lowered their import tax on Silver from 15 to 8% opening up the for their citizens to buy more silver because gold price was moving higher and so that's another component of physical side”
A major transition has occurred in the mining capital management industry where wealth management firms now buy ETFs instead of doing stock picking, even institutional firms like CalPERS said they do more ETF investing than managed investments, and speculative investors have shifted away from mining to digital and cannabis
“we've seen a major transition in the industry a lot of wealth management now are um are wealth management who buy ETFs you know you don't see the stock Pickers like we used to have even you know cper California pension fund they said about six months ago they do more ETF investing than than than managed uh Investments...speculative investor chase you know digital and cannabis and all these other sectors”
The 3.5 kilometer Ceno anomaly contains values over 37 ppb (parts per billion) that are coherent across 10 kilometers of total strike length when combined with the BBM anomaly, and the midpoint of the new anomaly is roughly 4 kilometers away from BBM, making structural continuity likely.
“that 37 ppb anomaly is is coherent over you know um well with this three and a half kilm so over over 10 kilm now...midpoint of that anomaly it's roughly 4 kilm away from BBM”
Grassroots exploration is getting no money right now as evidenced by junior companies unable to afford registration fees at Beaver Creek conference, indicating lack of investors in the resource market space despite historical lottery ticket success stories like Great Bear
“Grassroots exporation I'm not touching at this point there's just no money going the ground uh at Beaver Creek uh uh conference you can see a lot of these Junior Juniors walking around they aren't even registered for the conference because they can't afford the registration fee”
Mountain City has mining history with Riotinto copper mine operating post-WWII through 1980s and Jericho Canyon operations, with local population having prior mining experience, providing favorable social context for Western's development plans
“that region as well is known as a mining area a lot of people from Jared Canyon live in Mountain City or in these ranches they've worked at Jarrett Canyon in the past and then back in I want to say post World War II up until about the 80s there was a copper mine called riotinto that was just north of us but near the community...there's a lot of mining history there um from those operations both jarich Canyon and riotinto”
Interest cost on US debt has surpassed military spending and with Medicaid and Social Security being increasingly taxed by the aging of America, there is growing concern about deficit sustainability, yet both candidates in the 2024 election don't talk about deficits because they can't change them and will keep spending
“interest cost on the debt has surpassed on um military spending and when you have Medicaid and Social Security you know getting more tax by the Aging of of America there's a greater concern about the deficit asss...we have an election coming up in 10 days and either one of the candidates they don't talk about the deficits because they can't they can't change the deficits they're going to keep on spending”
PAA will be important milestone to understand water usage, land usage, environmental issues and power issues, with power line coming down main access road within 5 km of both Gravel Creek and Dolby George providing power infrastructure advantage
“paa is going to be an important Milestone to understand you know water usage land usage environmental issues as well as power issues we do have a power line that comes down the main access road to within 5 km of both gravel Creek and Doby George”
Multiple senior mining companies are paying 4-5% dividend yields and throwing out significant cash flow that weren't seen in previous cycles, and sector has never been in better shape despite Newmont hiccups, with many great companies doing well at better valuations
“number of my senior mining companies are paying me four or 5% dividend yields in the last cycle we didn't see those type of dividend returns number of companies comp are debt free um throwing out significant cash flow we didn't see that previous Cycles the sector has never been in better shape despite the new mons hiccups...there's so many great companies that are doing so so well and so you know you're buying Great Value now”
Metallurgical samples for Gravel Creek came from same drilling location (456 and 457) showing similar alteration signature as current drilling, with flotation test recovering 95% gold and silver to concentrate and gravity recovery adding 22% at higher grades
“those recoveries that we reported the samples from that or the samples for that metallurgical test work came from the drilling last year on that Discovery section full 456 and 457 so it was identical to what we're seeing this year...we're getting about 22% of the recovery of the gold in a gravity con before the float so as we see higher grades we're seeing more um recoverable Gold by gravity methods rather than flotation”
Gravel Creek mineralization is dated identical age (15.4 million years old) as Midas and Sleeper epithermal deposits by USGS in February, representing same rocks, mineralization style, and mineralogy, with Midas and Sleeper being high-grade most productive epithermal deposits
“the gravel Creek System um is I think related and comparable to two of the highest grade most productive epithermal deposits in Nevada and north northeastern Nevada which were Midas and sleeper our mineralization was dated by the United States Geological Survey in February is identical age as mid sleeper 15.4 million years old it's the same rocks the same style of mineralization the same minerology”
Regolith is variable with some transported zones masking geochemical signatures and other areas with shallower cover showing clear anomalies, with soil sampling showing core values of 100+ ppb gold up to 4500 ppb, providing multiple layers of evidence for continuity of structure and mineralization trend
“regali is variable so there is some transported zones where the the soils get um sort of um masked if you like...there's other areas where you know we're getting uh you know not a shallow or a shallower cover and then they're then they're showing up as as cerent anomalies...soil samples are plus 100 there's up you know the core of them are plus 100 or getting into that range but also up to 4 500 PBB”
Pxrf does not produce false positives for geochemistry at elevated element levels that are many times above detection limit, but requires care at high grades where it may underreport, and geochemistry is valued for trends rather than precision matching that labs achieve
“you don't get false positives really with geochemistry because the levels that you're talking about you know for copper and Arsenic and and all those things they're many times above um detection limit of the pxrf...lab analysis tends to be more precise So within much closer um standard deviations from from what the value actually is...when you're looking for geochemistry you're looking for Trends in the data”
Aali's exploration success reflects a philosophy of understanding geology thoroughly and drilling systematically rather than broadly, allowing drilling cost optimization and maximization of drilling meters done relative to budget through higher success rate
“by being prudent with your expiration dollars you can drill more meters in the end and and uh and make more discoveries because like I said before discoveries are actually made at the drill bit and the drill and the drilling is the most expensive thing that we really do in in in expiration”
Gold has outperformed all three main US indices over the last 25 years by a significant margin, even when counting dividends on some indices
“gold has outperformed all three of the main us indices over the last uh 25 years really and and by a significant margin too even if you count dividends on um some of these indices it's it's still done better”
Western is permitted on Forest Service land through 2028 for Dolby George exploration and 2029 for Gravel Creek, with continuous permitting since 1997 without interruption creating good relationship with Forest Service who nominated company for Reclamation award won in 2019
“we're permitted to the end of 2028 at Dolby George for expiration and to the end of 2029 at gravel Creek...we've been permitted on a continuous basis by the forest service on this project since 1997 without interruption...they've nominated us to the state for several Awards we won a Reclamation award in 2019 on nomination from the forest service”
Aali Resources news release focused on using termites to generate new gold exploration targets and make previous discoveries cheaper and faster, with termite mound sampling revealing geochemical anomalies over 3.5 kilometer footprint on 100% owned ground adjacent to BBM discovery on joint venture
“you've just had a news release sometime last week I believe and it was a very interesting news release because you had an accompanying video with it that talked about termites...you've uncovered 3 and 1 half kilm gold footprint on your 100% own ground...BBM Discovery was uh 75 meters of 2.4 grams gold equivalent”
Major Drilling's stock was down 15% one day because of lower revenues from junior companies not having money for drilling programs at $2750 gold, which is shocking and shows lack of money in exploration space
“I was talking to U denil Rock from major Drilling and their stock was down 15% one day because of lower revenues because these Junior companies don't have any money for drilling right that's 2750 gold which is shocking”
Dolby George silification in host rock and fine-grain gold may be limiting 72% recovery versus potential 80%, but finer grinding doesn't show recovery improvement justifying additional capital, representing optimization to be studied in PAA
“some of the fine grain gold in the silica could be the reason that you're seeing 72% recovery instead of 80% um know we can do a finer grind but um we didn't see a lot of recovery improvement with a finer grind so or a finer Crush so I don't know that you get the payback on the extra Capital to do that crushing um but that's definitely work that'll be done in the Pea”
Silver is a leverage play on gold, finally catching up here, but one problem with silver is that when prices hit $31-32 there were lots of legacy positions and physical holdings that broke even causing investors to exit, forcing the market to eat through that level before continuing
“silver is a leverage play on gold and we're F finally seeing catchup here and one of the problems with silver is when you got to that 3132 price point there's a lot of Legacy positions physical positions held and so typical investors when you get back to break even and people you know get out of investment so we had to eat through that”
Western Exploration's most pressing immediate priority is completing current high-grade vein discovery drilling adjacent to Gravel Creek resource which is only 250 meters away and expected to be near-term connection, with updated resource planned that could add significant grade to 5-6 g/ton baseline
“the most pressing one is that drill program we're doing right now uh last year we discovered a very highgrade um vein system adjacent the gravel Creek resource it's only 250 MERS away...we think it can upgrade the current resource but add significant grade that goes to the bottom line for economics of an underground deposit”
Dolby George is Carlin-type oxide deposit with 525,000 ounces at 1 gram per ton right at surface 95% oxidized, representing straightforward heap leach opportunity that can be advanced quickly with PAA showing economic viability
“Dolby George is a Carlin type deposit it's right at surface it has over 800 drill holes in it it's about 525,000 oun starting right at surface the majority of it 95% oxide at 1 gram per ton...straightforward half-inch crush and Heap bleach”
Aali has portable pxrf lab arriving in next couple of weeks after shipping delays from Australia, with training scheduled for end of November, expected to be operational before Christmas and providing gold and silver results within 48 hours of drilling collection
“it is on the water and due to arrive um in the next sort of couple in the next couple of in the next I don't know might be only a week now...training booked in toward the end of November and then the lab will be up and running uh to um to go like between you know in you know before I would hope Before Christmas”
Darcy Morid CEO of Western Exploration is a geologist with 41 years industry experience starting in uranium in 1980s, moving to gold with Homestake Mining, making important El Pinon discovery in Chile producing 5 million ounces and 120 million ounces silver
“who am I I'm a geologist by training I've been in the industry for 41 years now um so as we were talking earlier Antonio I started in uranium...I moved over to Gold I started with home stake Mining Company...in 94 I joined Meridian gold and we made an important Discovery called the El penan deposit in Chile um pan has currently produced about 5 million ounces of gold and probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 120 million ounces of silver”
Morid worked as VP Exploration for Meridian Gold and then Senior VP Exploration for Yamana Gold where he ran worldwide exploration portfolio and became EVP in charge of strategy putting together exploration/development/mind plans for growth
“moved on to Argentina to run some projects as VP of exploration for Meridian um and in 2007 the company was acquired by yanana gold where I became senior vice president of expiration for Yana I'm running their worldwide portfolio of expiration and then ultimately Executive Vice President is part in charge of strategy”
Western Exploration team keeps GNA as low as possible while rewarding management through future success via options and shares rather than cash, trying to keep cash going into the ground
“I'll add on to it as well that we're very prudent um we try to keep our GNA as low as possible um we reward our management through future success through options and shares rather than cash at the door um so we try to keep our cash going into the ground”
Western Exploration royalties are held by third parties but one 1% royalty is buyable by the company for $5 million ramping to maximum $10 million after 10 years, providing optionality for management
“there is one that is buyable there's a 1% overall royalty held by igno eagle that we can buy out at any time I think it's a 5 million and then it ramps up to a maximum 10 million after 10 years”
Morid doesn't own service companies delivering to Western Exploration and doesn't have royalty personally on the project, maintaining clear separation of interests
“no no not not at all okay that's easy do you have any other positions...no no not at all okay that's easy”
Western has observed no faulting or shearing at depth so far with mineralization and alteration appearing where expected, suggesting continuity rather than structural disruption, though 3D modeling will provide clear indication once all results are back
“to this point no we're not but again once we 3D model this that'll give us a clear indication but the current drilling that we've seen we're getting mineralization and alteration where we thought we should get it”
Drilling costs in West Africa are roughly $170-180 USD per meter drilled and assayed, with assay costs around $40, making total cost per hole approximately $180 USD per meter including drilling and assay
“per meter drilled in assade um it's about 180 drillen assade Canadian 100 no us 170 180 roughly something like that yeah 170 180 drilled and assay okay drill costs about 130 and assay cost around you know 40”
The gold market is not a western story market but a market for the BRICS nations and autocracies of the world, with central banks creating a new gold standard, yet the gold equity story in North America is largely unknown with funds not coming into gold equity markets because investors are transfixed on Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft
“the gold market is not a western story Market it's a it's a it's a market for the Tes and and Bricks Nations and what we're seeing is a movement or um not dollarization but a a new gold standard being created by the bricks Nations and the autocracies of the Western World...the gold Equity story in North America is largely unknown um again you know I when I talked to a lot of my corporate clients you know the the funds are not coming in”
When a freighter changes direction in an ocean it usually goes in that direction for a long period of time, and we're just seeing a change in direction among central bankers globally since 2008 where they've been big buyers and escalated in the last 3 years due to weaponization of the US dollar
“when a freighter changes Direction in an ocean uh it usually goes in that direction for a long period of time and we're just seeing a change in Direction among Central Bankers in the world since '08 Central Bank has been big buyers of gold and they've escalated up the last three years you know the weapon weaponization of US dollar is one of the major reasons”
Most junior exploration company CEOs have an exit strategy focused on acquisition by larger companies, leading to pressure to find something 'worthwhile' for takeover rather than building sustainable businesses; this creates a structural misalignment between CEO and shareholder incentives.
“a lot of these guys I talk to most of these guys really I talked to with you know CEOs of exploration companies their exit strategy is M and and they're like oh we're going to get Acquired and we want to find something that's worthwhile for a bigger company”
Gold ETFs in the United States hold about 2,600 tons, down from 3,500 tons, showing that the US investor hasn't come in to the gold bull market yet, and the big swing play will happen when US investors recognize why gold and silver are trading the way they are
“the gold ETFs in the United States they're still I think it's 2600 tons it was 3,500 tons so the US investor hasn't come in...the big swing play is going to happen when us investors recognize why gold and silver are trading the way they are”
Western completed 1.7 million Canadian financing in September specifically for Dolby George oxide deposit resource update and PAA to be completed in Q1 2025 with pre-feasibility study target end of 2025
“you mentioned a 1.7 million Canadian uh financing that we completed in September um that was done specifically for the Dolby George deposit...we brought in another 1.7 we've spent about I would say three million on the drilling to date...that 1.7 million we raised is going right into updating the resource and getting a paa completed in first quarter of next year”
Western Exploration's Aura project in Nevada is a 6,000-hectare land package containing three zones: Dolby George (Carlin-type sediment-hosted deposit, open-pit heap leach, 525,000 oz oxide at 1 g/t), Gravel Creek (volcanic-hosted epithermal sulfide, underground mine, 650-700k oz indicated), and Wood Gulch (smaller epithermal deposit); the combined resource is 665,000 oz gold equivalent at 1.7 g/t.
“aura project which is a 6,000 Hector land package that houses the uh tobby George gravel Creek and wood Gulch um deposits whicher three zones making up the company's MRE which was published in 2021”
We've had 40 years since 1981 when Volcker ended inflation of continued asset appreciation in bonds, stocks, and real estate despite speed bumps, but three years ago money was free which created bad behavior with people overpaying and overleveraging for assets, and we still have highly leveraged and overpriced assets today
“we've got 40 years since 1981 when vulker put the stamp out on on inflation we've had 40 Years of an asset appreciation market...three years ago as I was saying to clients...money was free and it's created bad behavior people overpaid for assets and overleveraged for those assets well we still have an environment where you know we have assets that are very leveraged and overpriced”
India is transacting in oil with Russia using gold as collateral, indicating that gold is being redeployed as a settlement medium for bilateral trade outside the dollar system.
“India transacting in oil with Russia they're using gold as collateral for those transactions”
Canada's real estate market is showing signs of weakness and the US consumer has stayed strong due to 30-year mortgages at 2.5% from the prior era, but global debt worries remain concerning with China's economic situation deteriorating, Germany not reporting guidance next year, England in recession, making it impossible for the US to have a strong economy when other nations are suffering
“Canada for example our real estate market is definitely showing signs of weakness here but we have fiveyear mortgages the United States 30-year mortgages 2 and a half% that's what's been one of the major reasons why the consumer stayed strong but I still look at the debt worries of the world...China's economic situation deteriorating Germany you know next year they're not reporting on their guidance England's back into recession and it's I think it's impossible for the us to have a strong economy when all these other nations are are suffering”
The biggest bull markets start in stealth fashion and we've been in a stealth bull market for the last number of years with money flow coming in over the last 6 months to a year, with lots of stocks up 50-100% but the narrative hasn't created money flows into passive funds yet and Main Street hasn't recognized the bull market
“the biggest bll markets start in a stealth fashion and I would argue we've been in a stealth bow market for the last you know well number of years here but uh in the last six months to a year we have money flow coming in...a lot of our stocks are up 100% here and uh so it is happening and the sure fact that you're saying when's it going to happen exemplifies my point about the narrative hasn't created the real money flows into the passive fund yet”
In previous cycles when cannabis was bull market, passive funds sprayed money into limited number of companies creating nonsensical valuations (like Tilray going to $260 then down to $2), and same finite amount and leverage will happen with mining when passive funds get involved
“when you looked at the Cannabis cycle when it went it was all passive funds that sprayed into the stocks and it was a finite amount of companies and you saw stocks like tillay go to $260 a share now $2 a share valuations made no sense whatsoever so we will get money flows coming in through passive funds”
There are very few wealth management people in Canada who specialize in metals and mining because they moved on to passive fund managing or other sectors, which is why Curry is extremely bullish because despite gold at all-time highs he's in the same position as in 2002-2003 when no one was paying attention
“there's very few uh wealthmanagement people in the country that specializ in metals of mining because they moved on you know to passive fund mesing or other sectors and that's why you know I'm extremely bullish as well because you know I remember being 2002 2003 buying these gold that reason no one was paying attention and I find it unique to think that I'm in the same position right now despite gold at alltime highs”
Western's exploration philosophy is to understand what economics are needed for minability and then test if potential exists to reach that number, avoiding exploration that identifies something that will never become economic
“there's that balance between the Greenfield's expiration of committing drilling to making that new discovery but once you've made it how do you advance that Discovery because at the end of the day you're there to make you know money for your shareholders and the best way to do that is make a discovery that ultimately becomes a m”
The market is disconnected from the fundamentals of the economy as evidenced by retail sales decline impacting companies like Starbucks while market stays elevated driven by mega-7 tech stocks despite Boeing down from $400 to $150, Disney at $95, and other major companies showing weakness
“the market is disconnected from the fundamentals of the economy you look at the retail sales numbers have been coming out in companies like Starbucks and other other other um middle income in uh consumers and it's not a strong economy...the mega7 driving valuations but you start looking at the fact that Boeing has gone from $400 to 150 you know Disney's trading at $95 a lot of these companies...Starbucks down 15%”
Gold at all-time highs and silver outperforming gold on a year-on-year and year-to-date basis with five-year performance of both metals basically the same having doubled, while the GDX gold miners ETF is only up about 50% in that five-year period but miners are outperforming metal on a year-on-year basis
“Golds at all time highs and the markets not recognizing it...silver isn't but it is performing very nicely and it's actually outperforming gold on a year-on-year basis year-to dat basis too with the five-year performance of both the medals being basically the same they've about doubled Over The Last 5 Years whereas the GDX gold miners ETF is only up about 50% in that 5year period but interestingly enough the miners are outperforming the metal on a year- on-year basis”
Comstock Mining (Lendine Gold) has gone debt-free, pays 4% dividend yield, and will have $1 billion on balance sheet in a year, representing a real success story in margin expansion and deleveraging, showing the difference between selective stock picking and broad ETF exposure
“a company like lendine gold for example now it's debt-free pays you I think a 4% dividend yield and a year from now they're going to have a billion dollars in their balance sheet so there's a there's a real real success story in terms of margin expansion and deleveraging on their debt”
Cisco taken over by Goldfields for $4 billion and Silver Crest taken over representing numerous recent takeovers showing M&A is taking place in exploration space, with $25 per ounce in the ground offering attractive valuations for quality assets marching toward permits
“Cisco I mean take over by goldfields we just closed last week you know that's a 4 $4 billion takeover net right look at Silver cust just taken over we've seen numerous takeovers taking place um you just never know...when you can buy some of these companies at $25 an ounce in the ground and they're marching towards permits and they're significant there will be significant producers that's attractive”
Morid's 500,000 shares have average cost basis of ~$1.50-$1.70 after purchasing some shares on open market last year when stock was underperforming, with previous entry at >$2 when private
“it's about 500,000 shares and my average cost would be about a150 to $1.75 okay when we were when we were private it was well over $2 the entry um...some of the on uh some of the public market purchases I did last year when the stock was underperforming”
Newmont delivered disappointing numbers with higher costs and lower production, and Barrick's production has gone from 8 million to 4 million ounces, both companies operating in expensive labor pools in US and Australia, making it hard to manage costs compared to more nimble senior and mid-tier companies
“newon as a barometer is a bad barometer...higher costs lower production um soccer was down 15% that day and it was really disappointing to see...beric's gone from 8 million to 4 million oun production...beric and numont you know beric's Coster RSE they're they also operate in two of the biggest most expensive labor pools uh United States and Australia which are very expensive labor pools”
Central bank gold holdings relative to euro holdings have shifted such that central banks now hold more gold than euros, indicating a structural shift in how reserve currency baskets are composed globally.
“central banks in the world now hold more gold than they do the Euro...US Dollar's role amongst the bricks Nations the autocracies for transaction it's getting less and less”
In 2001 El Dorado and Bemuld were $5 per ounce in the ground with nobody paying attention, establishing precedent that currently $25 per ounce valuations are dirt cheap considering timeline and money spent to get to resource
“I remember in 2001 I was buying El Dorado and be mold at the time and they were like $5 an ounce in the ground and nobody's paying attention to them...timeline spent and all the money spent to get there is just just represents how Dirt Cheap the uh some of these opportunities are”
Ounces per EV metric shouldn't be used by majors who should focus on return on capital, but historical use of $50 per ounce in ground valuations has merit for understanding relative cheapness of current opportunities
“it shouldn't be shouldn't be yeah it should it should be return on Capital you know that's the other thing too A lot of these resources that come out I mean there's resources and there's real resources”
Curry's best performers are at companies with preferred stock positions and tight radar tracking, avoiding entry points where there is 1.5+ years to permitting creating dead zone with no sense of urgency
“I've got probably five or six that I've got on very very very tight radar right now that I'm very interested in but I'm just looking at the entry points is again it's timeline if you're if you're a year and a half way from permitting you know there's a dead zone of of NS and so there's no sense of urgency”
As senior and intermediate companies look 3 years ahead for replacement and growth without current tension in boardrooms, there will be tension when fewer assets are available as you're starting now to see, creating M&A opportunity for companies with de-risked assets
“when you're when you're a senior or an intermediate company you're now starting to look three years out and going okay what are we doing for replacement what are we doing for growth there's no tension in the boardrooms yet but there will be tensions because there's fewer and fewer assets available”
High quality discoveries are the ones that will attract the most attention first, trading at reasonable valuations now, so there's no need to go into pounds or ounces in the ground type stories when high grade discoveries are available
“right now is the time to get involved in the high quality discoveries because they're already trading at reasonable valuations but they're the one that are going to attract the most attention first so there's no need to go into the to the pounds in or ounces in the ground type of stories right now”
Curry focuses on manager teams he has worked with in the past who know what they're doing, having had three or four assets taken over and sold eight companies in M&A to tenors and seniors with major shareholder positions, making formula based on proven management track record rather than arm-waving
“I deal with manager teams I've worked with in the past and I know they know what they're doing I mean to be an Explorer and just to arm wave something you know you actually have to make it work eventually and uh you know there's manager teams I've worked with where we've had three or four assets taken over last cycle we sold eight companies and M Tenors and seniors and we are major shareholders”
Money managers in the gold space are not touching exploration, with Greg Orel of OCM Gold Fund with 30+ years experience saying the same thing, indicating broad shift toward cash-flowing companies and away from early-stage exploration
“I spoke to one of the one of the few long-standing gold money managers in the space Greg Orel of the um ocm gold fund he's been at it for over 30 years um and he gave me a comparable answer to yours he said I'm not touching exploration in that way um that's basically what it came down to”
In 2003 gold was bought when it was $360-380 and when it went through $400 while the Dixie US dollar index broke 100, gold took off and the gold stocks really took off, and now with Dixie at 103 it touched 107 a few weeks ago before long rates started rising causing dollar to rally, showing that equities and gold are still to be bought especially equities because no one's paying attention
“in 2003 we were buying gold at you know gold equities when gold was at two uh 360 380 down to 340 and when it went through $400 in the Dixie US dollar Index uh broke a 100 that's when gold took off...the Dixie right now is at 103 it touched. a few weeks ago then long rates started to riseing so the dollar rallied so I think what you've got here is a phenomena where um you know I think the equities and gold right now are still to be bought”
Western's marketing approach is selective, spending ~$20,000 monthly from $50,000 GNA budget on marketing primarily when news catalysts exist, building awareness before hits while hitting marketing harder when results released to maximize context understanding
“um we tend not to expose ourselves maybe as much as some other companies do um when we're marketing it's because we have something to say...we do have a marketing budget that is significant I think of that $50,000 monthly that we spend on GNA there's probably 35 to 40,000 that that um no not that much maybe 20,000 it's going to marketing um so we try to get the story out there so that people are aware when news comes they're prepared for it”
Buying individual mining stocks rather than ETFs allows to avoid being slammed by Newmont when it's a heavy weight on gold ETF, and stock picking during gold bull market is more important than before
“if you buying ETFs and Newmont was a heavy weight on it uh you just got slammed but I don't own Newmont...well this is also a good argument for being a stock picker now absolutely ever more so than than before absolutely”
Best performers in portfolio are discoveries or equities approached from bottom-up starting at asset level, with exploration stocks that haven't moved in 2-3 years still showing weak charts while cannabis saw absolutely unhinged valuations making no sense
“my best performers are discoveries or equities that I've approached from the bottom up perspective starting at the asset level...the average boring company if you want to call it that that hasn't moved in in two or three years...specifically on the lower market caps whereas with these cannabis companies for example again you saw absolutely unhinged valuations that made no sense whatsoever”