The World Is Changing Fast! Do This Now To Prepare - Neil Howe
What this covers
How can past crises teach us how to deal with challenges in today's world? Neil Howe is a renowned historian and generational theorist, known for co-authoring the seminal books "Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069" and "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy."
In this timely one-on-one conversation with Scott Harris -- a seasoned facilitator and trainer for Tony Robbins -- Neil discusses his latest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End."
Watch more from Neil Howe here: https://youtu.be/lX1Csk2vn5A
Drawing on his expertise in history and cycles, Neil reveals how different generations experience and shape our world. Howe also helps us better understand the multiple crises that we're facing today, and how upcoming challenges will affect each generation differently.
How can understanding generational cycles in "The Fourth Turning" help us prepare for today's societal and economic challenges? Neil offers insights on how individuals, communities, and families can effectively prepare for the future.
This discussion is particularly crucial, as we approach a critical juncture expected by the early 2030s. Join us for this insightful conversation and learn how to stay multiple steps ahead in business and life!
Watch more videos like this 👇 Joe Gebbia Took Airbnb from Failing Startup to $85 Billion/Year: https://youtu.be/isqikh4v51s From US Immigrant to Billion-Dollar Entrepreneur: Sam Nazarian's Success Blueprint: https://youtu.be/4qTLrc0nogg The Fourth Turning: What past generations can teach us about our future: https://youtu.be/lX1Csk2vn5A
0:00:00 Introduction 0:00:18 Scott’s Intro 0:02:42 The life cycles of society 0:05:01 What precedes a Fourth Turning 0:08:03 Win or fall apart as a country 0:10:22 How we broke out of the last Fourth Turning 0:13:44 Fourth Turning characteristics 0:15:05 The decline of Western Civilization 0:17:58 Golden Age after crisis 0:18:30 War included 0:21:30 Change to move forward 0:23:52 The cycles of social behavior 0:25:44 How younger generations can fix the world 0:28:20 Lost Generation vs. Millennials 0:31:00 Millennials and the rising economic inequality 0:33:52 Millennials post Fourth Turning 0:38:24 Prepping for what’s ahead economically 0:41:02 The importance of community virtues 0:46:30 Neil’s advice for secure geographical investments and promising industries 0:56:15 Why living standards haven’t improved 0:57:07 Awakenings vs. crisis 1:01:37 Question from David: How will the next year or two play out in this cycle? 1:07:09 Question from Michelle: What changes or shifts have you observed between your initial book and most recent one? 1:10:29 Michelle’s second question: What role does immigration play in awakenings? 1:15:57 Casey’s question about the origin of the word saeculum and its relevance to shorter lifespans in centuries past 1:18:30 Casey’s second question: With advancements in biosciences and longevity technologies leading to longer lifespans, will a saeculum consistently represent four generations, or will a fifth generation emerge? 1:21:38 Casey’s third question: Examining historical data and if regression analysis has been utilized to predict election outcomes 1:23:36 Jeffrey’s question: Relocating to safeguard one's family from impending turmoil on the planet 1:31:50 Scott signs off
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Neil Howe argues that Millennials, coming of age during the current Fourth Turning crisis (2020s-early 2030s), will lead a generational transformation that rewrites civic institutions and rebuilds community-oriented systems, replacing the individualism of previous eras with collective action and shared purpose.
- Fourth Turnings are crisis periods when generations remake society's outer institutions; Millennials are the civic generation destined to lead this transformation
- Historical pattern: after every Fourth Turning climax comes a resolution and a new golden age with restored institutional trust and communal values, as occurred after WWII
- Millennials' preference for community, institutional belonging, and collective action over Gen X individualism positions them as architects of a post-crisis society with rebuilt infrastructure, healthcare, education, and housing
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Wealth inequality in the West declined dramatically from the late 1930s through the late 1960s (during WWII and the post-war period) due to government full employment policies, new social safety nets, higher tax rates, and the Great Depression wiping out some large fortunes, but has risen sharply since the late 1970s.
“from the late 30s to the to the late 60s when throughout the West inequality declined a huge decline I mean if you look at almost every measure of gen Cici of income and wealth it declined it declined hugely during World War II and it declined during the 1950s and most of the 60s started Rising again at the end of the 70s”
In pre-modern societies and traditional cultures, life expectancy was lower but those who survived to adulthood often lived to old age, and the role of elders was to provide authority and direction; the concept of elderhood as a distinct life phase with specific social functions existed independent of life expectancy rates.
“it's we actually discuss that in the book um I can tell you where to go they the average live expectancy was lower but it was mainly because of in High infant mortality and child mortality and IR mortality and something throughout your life but as I point out anyone in reachs you know age 20 or 25 even at high mortality premodern societies most of those people will still be alive uh by their mid AGS”
Millennials are becoming skeptical of democracy not because of anti-democratic ideology but because they see democracy as an excuse for older generations to talk endlessly without taking action, and they are instead drawn to populist leaders who promise decisive change regardless of ideology.
“Millennials are actually turning on Democracy itself uh you ask Millennials they're much less likely been older generations to think democracy is a good idea and and you know you asked them why and they just said well democracy is is an excuse for older people to talk about everything and then um uh you know through through process and procedures and lawsuits and whatever never do it”
Golden ages in history (like the Age of Augustus following civil war, or the American High following WWII) only occur after Fourth Turning crises, and they are characterized by institutional functionality, public trust, collective identity, and a sense of belonging that contrasts sharply with the individualism of the preceding Awakening.
“turning to ages as the only times at which we achiev those ays Asic crisis these these Golden Ages all occur after a crisis that the first golden age in history that people talk about was the age of Augustus and it followed this huge period of Civil War you know at the late Republic”
Healthcare, education (primary, secondary, and university), housing and community development, and social services represent roughly 50% of US GDP but have experienced negative or stagnant productivity growth over the past 30 years, unlike personal technology sectors which improved dramatically.
“but everything that was Community oriented in what we produce that is to say involves an element of sort of community cooperation and producing it actually separ negative productivity as one of the reasons why we we don't have we we just so poor eting pain grow it's not because we can't paper our walls with flat screen TVs uh or or you know new F of light bulbs and so on it's rather things like health care that's 18% of US GDP right there 18% uh education both primary secondary and University level education uh then we move on to um Housen land use development how we organiz our communities uh then we move on to things like social services and so on uh and how about Finance how do we organize Finance I think I'm up to 50% of GDP right there in healthc care”
China is demographically imploding with declining birth rates, while India has surpassed China in population as of 2022 and is projected to be twice China's size by 2100, making India a better long-term investment story than China.
“China is really imploding demographically and and obviously given the fact that globalization is now in Reverse right so global trade as a Shear Global GDP has been falling ups and downs but but ever since 2007 it's been falling”
Every Fourth Turning in recorded history (1929 crash, 2008 financial crisis, Civil War era, American Revolution era) has been accompanied by a total war, though the speaker expresses cautious optimism that future crises might be managed through organized conflict rather than total war.
“I I I I I just say historically total have always occurred in for turnings and every four turning has had a total war that's all I can it's a big S you can say that's accidental or coincidence or whatever I'm just saying that's been it but I the eternal optimist that I am I do not say it's necessary”
The FDR 1936 reelection represented a generational sea change where Democrats won overwhelmingly (300+ to 60-70 Republicans), signifying the triumph of the New Deal and the emergence of a new generation's values—FDR explicitly framed this as generational conflict between old 'money changers' and a new generation believing in cooperation.
“FDR when he was um when he was running for his reelection is is huge re-election this was 1936 by the way when their re-election was over uh Congress typ few were than I think only about 60 or 70 Republicans all the rest were Dem something 300 and something Democrats to maybe 60 or 70 Republicans that was the Wipeout election of all time the New Deal was utterly triump and FBR in his speeches he knew this was generational he said I see I see an America of that's been corrupted by an older generation of money changers who kep them saying it's up to you it's you know every man for himself I see a new generation coming along they believe in the broad Highway where we all you know cooperate with one another”
Globalization is in reverse since 2007 (with the possible exception of specific bilateral trade arrangements), and with modern sanctions regimes and geopolitical conflict, global trade will continue declining, making major multinational corporations vulnerable and favoring smaller, regional economies.
“globalization is now in Reverse right so global trade as a Shear Global GDP has been falling ups and downs but but ever since 2007 it's been falling and in this new age of sanctions and possibly geopolitical conflict it will fall even more is just sort of the general proposition now”
Peter Zeihan's book 'The End of the World is Just the Beginning' identifies that many countries (particularly China as the best example) face critical bottlenecks in commodity sourcing and energy that they depend upon, and no economy depends on globalism more than China, making China particularly vulnerable to de-globalization.
“there's a great book out if any was interested I in this aspect I thought it was a good book it's a book by Peter zean uh who it's it's called the the the end of the world is just the beginning uh and he's a demographer but more importantly he's an expert on um on metalurgy and and sort of the U uh the sourcing of uh of of Commodities and resources around the world he points out that many of these countries around the world some of them in the mid East but many of them in the uh in the far his best single example is China uh face all kinds of bottlenecks uh tumor things that they absolutely die if they don't have starting with energy”
The US healthcare system (costing 18% of GDP) is fundamentally broken because it allows doctors and hospitals to agree how to spend someone else's money (federal government via Medicare/Medicaid), creating massive moral hazard; Americans' health is more determined by non-medical factors than medical spending, yet the medical-industrial complex has convinced us spending more is the solution.
“I think we've had negative productivity over the past 30 years life expectancy in the United States last PE in 2014 and mortality rates were last their lowest about under n65 in 2010 and I mean that's how bad Healthcare we keep spending more and more money and people don't understand most of what influences your health it's not how much we spend on doctors and hospitals but I think somehow that that that medical industrial sector has convinced us that's true so you you need to let a doctor Hospital uh agree with his patient how to spend someone else's money but namely the federal government ensure his money and we think that's a that's a that's a great system and I think are you kidding uh but but but that's the system we're addicted to absolutely does not work”
US life expectancy peaked in 2014 and has declined since; mortality rates among young adults were lowest in 2010 and have worsened; obesity, diabetes, stress, and hypertension are increasing and uncontrolled in younger generations, suggesting their life expectancy will decline further as they age.
“life expectancy in the United States last PE in 2014 and mortality rates were last their lowest about under n65 in 2010 and I mean that's how bad Healthcare we keep spending more and more money”
Society, like individuals, moves through distinct life phases: spring, summer, autumn, and winter, and these societal seasons shape generational experiences based on the intersection between personal life phases and historical timing.
“Society also goes through basis right there's such a thing as a life cycle for society right uh and we all go through and Society itself has its has its spring summer winter and Autumn”
Crises are the only times major policy innovations occur; in calm, prosperous periods, institutional change is minimal because people are satisfied; institutions are only rebuilt when current trajectory becomes clearly hopeless, forcing comprehensive re-evaluation.
“this is a lesson so I think this is why so many uh Millennials... this is why creative destruction is so work and this is what crisis does we only make our huge new policy Innovations SC at times of Crisis yeah and this sounds completely counterintuitive to most people if you ask people they think well gee you know the the right time to make huge changes in our institutions is on a clear sunny day you know and we're all affluent we can think about it so we never do that you look back in all of American History you look back throughout his we never do that we always make our biggest most profound decisions for the future when we're backed into our Corner”
Young people with inherited wealth are drawn to ESG and similar frameworks not primarily because they believe in those specific criteria but because they feel guilty about their privilege relative to peers and want to signal belonging to their cohort—parents should recognize this underlying motivation rather than dismissing ESG frameworks.
“I would say there's one of the reasons why you find so many young people with money you know often sort of requests and so on sort of generational wealth as you put it uh and I known this from all investment advising stats they're the ones B to ESG right I mean that look oh my and I got why is that because they feel guilty about their worth versus their peers”
The good news of the Fourth Turning is that once we realize our current trajectory is hopeless and recognize we need huge transformation, this creates the conditions for positive change, because history cannot be rewound—we can only move forward and create something new.
“the reason I say that is this is the good news of the for attorney is that the for attorney in a way when you realize that our current trajectory is hopeless that we need some huge transformation in our society to to change the trajectory that's where the for turning becomes positive”
Fourth Turnings require more than just war—they require a sense of total public urgency that makes people realize the stakes are existential, similar to Benjamin Franklin's statement that 'we either all hang together or we all hang separately,' creating the adrenaline and commitment needed for societal transformation.
“it does require a sense of total public urgency to for us in other words you need something to raise that adrenaline level and make everyone realize that we either you know as as Benjamin Franklin put it after signing the the Declaration in Independence we either all hang together or we all hang separately you know what I mean and and that's the moment you you need that it turns out war is very effective to Des got it say”
Linear historical progress is a modern invention rooted in monotheistic religions and Enlightenment thought, but this belief in progress contrasts with the cyclical social behaviors societies actually exhibit, as each generation tries to correct the previous generation's excesses.
“I think we're used to thinking about that as our general frame of reference I think what's really interesting and what I do point out in the book is that before mity uh and this is certainly very common in primitive Societies or just simply traditional societies ancient societies you know Pagan societies polytheistic societies that they didn't really share that the ancient Greeks as brilliant as they were with Plato and Aristotle and and and and Socrates they had no concept of the of of linear progress history was simply about infinite repetition all things are a circle”
The Fourth Turning will create investment volatility; crisis eras produce sharp boom-bust cycles, so investors should avoid momentum, high leverage, and high beta strategies, diversify geographically, and focus on asset classes like commodities, manufacturing, materials, and defense that will be valuable during reconstruction.
“in any gr of Crisis we expect volatility of the economy will usually speed up one thing I con to remind people is everyone aware how how serious the great crash was and how great the Great Depression was I have an answer what was it what was the second worst economic downturn of the 20th century and no one knows what that is J Dy it's the recession of 1937”
China is facing severe demographic decline (fertility crisis, population declining rapidly), which has closed the long-term historical tailwind that previously made waiting an attractive Chinese strategy; this is accelerating China's potential timeline for geopolitical action (particularly on Taiwan) because the strategic window is narrowing.
“uh it passed China and population as many of you know in 2022 uh and it is is expected to be this the end projection by the end of by 2100 it will be twice as large as China in terms of population China will be declining rapidly that's a whole another discussion we could go into as what it's happening to Chinese birth rate and so on uh but that's an actual mess right right uh China is really imploding demographically”
The GI Generation (Greatest Generation) learned during their youth that altruism was the winning strategy and maintained that throughout their lives, which is why they prioritized fitting in, government service, sacrifice, and team orientation—a strategy that persisted until much later generations with different childhood experiences.
“how did the how did the GI generation you know the greatest chers came out of World War II how did they become such team players how did that where did that come from you know the Jimmy Stewarts and all those be of the a Shucks kind of you know that attitude that came out of these people were B pilots and splashing a sh Tero would where did they get that well they get that because as they were coming of age a very different reality struck them that it wasn't about individuals getting ahead of each other it was the fact that their entire group was in danger and then suddenly the whole strategy changes and for the rest of their lives the GI generation always thought that altruism was the better strategy”
The Millennials represent a civic generation coming of age during the Fourth Turning crisis, and their experience will be empowering because they will have the opportunity to remake the world and lead the construction of a new social order, contrasting with Gen X's experience of being 'throw-away kids' in the Fall season of history.
“it's going to be empowering ultimately and I think that's the message I would give but for all the Millennials out there you know for people who were born in the in the 80s or 90s um this is this is going to be your chance to remake the world”
Business leaders should ask themselves what they would do if demand for their products dropped 50%, build safety nets for their industries, and make the case to government and public about why their sector deserves protection during the Fourth Turning.
“I think why you want to re realize I guess is what I'm saying is their their passion for ESG isn't so much that they care about ESG per se they really want want to feel that they're bonding with their own peers yeah and that's kind of what I'm getting at well which is so different to our generation exactly I me they want to be part of the Big Brand Jed xers wanted to be away from the Big Brand because they were going to survive better if they weren't part of the mainstream and I and I think Millennials realize the opposite and and and one way I explain that is by saying that if you grw up in a time where big institutions seem to be working okay uh that the winning strategy is selfishness because you you do better off you know just getting for yourself”
Wealthy parents should involve their children in the family's wealth management and community vision, teaching them through example rather than lectures, and showing them how their personal wealth and privilege can contribute to solving community problems.
“there's some broader to and and one is um of letting your children know first of all this is just ancient advice of of what you believe in by by your example right I think kids always get that I mean if if you are managing the family's wealth and you have some real interest in life in the country and you are pursuing it in a very Earnest way and you have a vision for what this where this country out to go and you're trying to do it you know and you're trying to look at a practicable broad vision of how we move forward and involve your kids in that”
Millennials are 'collaborationists' and 'norm core' players who prioritize fitting in with their peer group and want to be part of institutions that provide belonging, contrasting fundamentally with Gen X's individualism and desire for independence from institutional structures.
“Millennials are really trying to create a different world uh one which is much more Community oriented one in which institutions look after them and they contribute to the institution this is very alien the exra mind and I think that is a that is a u a generational contrast to will age as these two generations grow older”
Immigration patterns across American history show predictable cycles: rising during Awakenings (weak institutions), high during Unraveling phases, declining during crises, and at low levels during First Turnings, reflecting institutional strength and cultural assimilation pressures.
“I think there is a pattern of of fertility Rises and Falls there's also a pattern of migration generally we have Rising immigration after Awakenings in our history because typically Awakenings weaken public institutions”
During Fourth Turnings, government representation and political voice become more important because government makes life-or-death decisions about which industries and sectors survive, making political presence essential for business leaders who previously could avoid government.
“in fourth turnning representation in our political system becomes more important a lot of gen xers Scot and this say is a kind of a generational thing but a lot of gen xers came of age thinking I don't want any regulation I want nothing to do with government when it comes to government I just want to stay out play radar screen and I'm just going to do my thing totally competitive environment but in a for turning uh those are the people who get crushed”
The current fourth turning (crisis era) will likely reach its climax at the very end of the 2020s with resolution in the early 2030s, with a baseline estimate of 2033, though resolution is unlikely before 2026 or after 2036—this timeline is specific enough to guide personal and business planning.
“the likelihood of a climax is going to be at the very end of the 2020s I mean if you were ask actually ask me when it is uh and the the conclusion the resolution of the crisis being in the early 2030s we are our B against year is 2033 but that's just simply you know simply in a bell curb that's kind of the one that we think is likely as positive ability by running the numbers but I think it's it's unlikely to PE you know uh you know before 2026 that would be that would be that would be so unusual that would be almost um an an you know and it and but it but it would be also very unlikely to to to Peak and resolve you know after you know 2036”
An emerging phase of life called 'Late Elder' is appearing as people live into their 90s and 100s; the 2020 US government had three octogenarians in top posts (Biden, Pelosi, McConnell) simultaneously for the first time in history, suggesting the life cycle itself is extending.
“I'm sorry I do raise on the new book I talk about late Elder that's an emerging phase of life um and uh and the fact that we have you know at the end of 2020 cend year 2020 for the first time obviously the first time in history not only America I think any any any Nation we had oxygenarian at the head of the Senate the house and the white house right at the same time we had Biden uh Pelosi and Mitch mcod they were all 80 or 81 years old I mean just absolutely extraordinary right”
The Philippines is an attractive investment due to its English-speaking workforce, demographic growth through the end of the 21st century, growing population, and absence of the fertility decline plaguing China and other East Asian nations.
“as much as the economy is malign today I like the Philippines a lot it uh it's uh it's a you know it's a it's a an angle phone country a lot of English speakers um and it's uh it's has great Workforce potential and it's going to be growing demographically through the end of the 21st century uh so it's a big player in my book”
The first book (Generations, 1991) was impressionistic about the Fourth Turning because it could not have known specific details like who would be elected president, what red state/blue state would mean, or what geopolitical actors would emerge; the second book (2024) is more specific because these contingencies have now materialized.
“when we wrote the book in 1997 again that was almost science fiction that was like where out in the world we didn't even know what was going to be happening in America that I mean this is before this was before Obama and before uh uh uh certainly before well actually we did know Donald Trump back then he was already in the news uh but but my point is is that No One Believes you know if if you would ask back there with Donald Trump President we would have just thought what you got to be kidding right”
The Awakening phase of history (e.g., 1960s-1970s) is characterized by intense cultural revolution and destruction of outer-world civic institutions, with people focused on inner world, personal values, and cultural change rather than building infrastructure or communities.
“in between these we have the Awakenings and the Awakenings are when we rebuild the inner world right this is one is we come up with new values new culture new religion new perceptions just new ways of new vocabulary new ways of speaking um the last time we went in awaken in this pure was the late 60s and 70s”
Howe does not predict elections outcome directly (like other data analysts do) because that's not his comparative advantage; his advantage is identifying long-term thematic patterns no one else studies; he uses past as guide to think thematically about longer periods rather than crunching electoral data.
“the problem is it's different kind of event it's little like predicting stock market it's a very particular event that could go one way the other um I think what what I can do is predict what what and a lot of people can do that other words they crunch all the data by the way I have someone on my team who does um you know neural network machine learning and and we actually we actually try to do multi-day brations on stock market data so I I'm involved in that but that's completely different what I do here is I think thematically uh uh using the past as my guide to think about thematically about much longer term periods and nobody else does that and I feel my compartive advantage is looking at at at um at teachers that no one else has any idea about”
Fourth Turnings are crisis eras lasting a generation (roughly 20-25 years) characterized by dramatic deterioration of institutions, rising societal pessimism, and eventually culminating in a climactic moment that forces a fundamental reshaping of society's civic institutions and power structures.
“when we talk about a crisis era Scott we're talking about a generation long era it's kind of like talking about winter as a season there will be great days you know there will be calm days there'll be days of good”
Young people cannot afford housing, university education, or healthcare not because of personal choice but because these core community infrastructure sectors are dysfunctional, and this infrastructure failure (not gadget insufficiency) is the real reason Millennials are not reaching their parents' living standards at the same age.
“but but that's the system we're addicted to absolutely does not work and Americans hate it but if you want to ask most Americans and ask any Millennial in particular why living standards are no longer growing and why you are not reaching the living standard of your parents at the same age it's not because they can't buy the next cell phone it's because they aord and I just got to lose I just said they can't afford out here they can't afford a University degree and they can't afford to live anywhere”
The 1920s were characterized by 'it's up to you' ethic (coined by Lost Generation as young adults), weak government, high individualism—same era pattern as Gen X in 1990s-2000s; this historical parallel suggests Gen X's individualistic economic/political model will be decisively rejected post-2033, similar to how 1920s laissez-faire was rejected for New Deal.
“that was the idea everything was up to you you know back in the 1920s and that's again an era a very weak government and we were a very individualistic Society Millennials are really trying to create a different world uh one which is much more Community oriented one in which institutions look after them and they contribute to the institution this is very alien the exra mind and I think that is a that is a u a generational contrast to will age as these two generations grow older”
There is tremendous untapped potential in America that has been caged by institutional dysfunction, and once those dysfunctional institutions are dismantled during the Fourth Turning, the nation will experience an incredible boom as collective capacity is unleashed.
“I believe that there's tremendous untapped potential in America right that's just been compl completely caged by the fact that so many institutions don't work but but if once that's untapped that that causes the the the opposite not not the crash but the but the incredible bones to take place”
During the Fourth Turning crisis, economic demand will exceed production capacity as the nation mobilizes collectively for reconstruction, causing inflation (as seen in 1943-1945 and the Korean War era) even though personal expenditures are curtailed in favor of national priorities.
“inflation takes off and suddenly even though we're we're asked to peir back on all our personal expenditures the nation as a whole wants much more almost than what we can possibly deliver even if we're all working to the same goal and really what you saw 1943 44 45 and and and and then going on through the Korean War inflation simply caused by the fact that this nation was growing so big so massive so quickly and enhancing its power to change the world so quickly we couldn't even keep up right”
Wealth holders should bond with family—particularly extended family—and build strong family connections, because family relationships are the only reliable long-term insurance against health crises and aging, since the US has no viable long-term care insurance system and government support may be unpredictable during the Fourth Turning.
“your best investment for missoury down the road particularly in a and a turning s situation is to bond with your family particularly your extended family you know we have no workable uh uh long-term care insurance in this country and the whole idea so right with with moral hazard and and inability to negotiate a fair price it's never going to work you know your your long-term Health your long-term care insurance is your family”
In Awakenings, government becomes weaker and less capable of action due to institutional critique and cultural fragmentation; in crisis eras, government becomes stronger and more capable of decisive action because society unites around collective purpose.
“there is a pattern of of fertility Rises and Falls there's also a pattern of migration generally we have Rising immigration after Awakenings in our history because typically Awakenings weaken public institutions that protect”
During a fourth turning (crisis era), as traditional institutions lose legitimacy, people first retreat into family and small community units ("small platoons"), then gradually organize into larger tribal political and ideological communities—this process is visible in the 1930s New Deal era when Americans coalesced around competing visions (left vs. fascist vs. other ideologies).
“we feel um AGN phobia we're out there there no boundaries there no limits we don't know where anything's going to go we all feel helpless how are we re going to reorganize our public lives and so we start refining ourselves as members of small platoons at first and then we started joining these larger tribal communities um well we saw that in the 1930s new jate tribal you know we had different points of view about where America should go to uh to people on one side uh the 1930s with a red decade you know that was a people people who believed in that thought of the president as as uh Franklin stalino Roosevelt that was his name right uh people the left saw that as a fascist decade I mean democracies around the world were fallowing to fascist Str James”
Seculum (generating cycle) is approximately 100 years, composed of four generational archetypes each lasting ~20-25 years; as life expectancy increases, generational cohorts and saecula dilate somewhat, extending the complete cycle.
“so what what's actually causing though the the dilation of Life faces meaning the phase of life will be slightly longer what that means is the generations would be slightly longer and it means actually the the the culum will actually expand somewhat”
Beyond economic inequality statistics, there was an ethic of equality in the 1950s where even wealthy people hid their wealth rather than flaunting it, and today's culture of displaying luxury wealth and privilege is already beginning to shift as Millennials view wealth flaunting as shameful.
“and but was not just the fact of economic inequality can't measure it you know and actually number but it was the ethic of equality even people that were Rich during the 1950s kind of hid their wealth you know what I mean you didn't flaunt it like you did today”
Political leaders during fourth turnings often emerge not from the expected cohorts but through rapid change; both Trump and Biden were incumbent-adjacent candidates no one particularly wanted, but the system locked them in due to path dependency; rapid leadership change could occur due to dissatisfaction.
“we've got two we've got a a politically leaderless Nation uh but unbelievably we have no effort to find new leaders but these two incumbents that no one really wants there but they just feel faded they have to go with because the political system is operating no choice there tremendous dissatisfaction about it I I do think that events Could Happen very rapidly in which neither of the uh the people that are currently talking about that either either Joe Biden or Donald Trump will end up as the candidates 2024”
The immediate near-term risks for the Fourth Turning include political leadership vacuums (no compelling candidates), hardening partisan polarization, potential systemic breakdown if either political side decides to 'spike the system,' and geopolitical tensions (particularly around Taiwan) that could accelerate conflict timelines.
“in the United States this just the huge Flash B coming up which is um uh November of 2024 right uh in fact then they got everyone in America sort of gradually their knackles are gting white was thinking about it uh uh we've got um we've got two we've got a a politically leaderless Nation uh but unbelievably we have no effort to find new leaders but these two incumbents that no one really wants”
The practice of hiring by generation and understanding which generations you're hiring can help leaders align organizational culture with generational strengths and anticipate needs during the Fourth Turning.
“now I'm hiring now I'm thinking of desk assessments I'm thinking of cycles of history I'm thinking of the diversity of my employees by 76 people which Generations they are so I understand how they thinking and now I have another piece that I have to put in there because I work with International people”
Internal combustion engine cars have not meaningfully changed since Howe's childhood, suggesting no material progress despite claims about rapid technological change; the issue is institutional/systemic problems (healthcare, education, housing) not consumer gadgetry.
“I'm living in the same stupid kind of internal combustion engine car that I grew up in as a kid I see no progress at all people are constantly talking about the world is changing so fast my God in history is speeding up when you look at our material life our institutional life I see no change”
Howe was bullish on the 1997-1998 predictions from the Generations/Fourth Turning framework because subsequent 25 years of history have validated the basic pattern (crisis arriving when predicted, generational archetypes playing out as described).
“couple of things I want to ask you um one is Je it's got to feel good to be so right doesn't it I mean it's got to feel good you know when I was going through the list of things that were in the early books of Generations I mean that's 1991 for God's sake generations and then uh and then obviously for turity and so forth that that's got so they bet trays my own generation”
Wealthy people moving to rural, remote areas with self-sufficient properties during the Fourth Turning should be understood as personal lifestyle preference (introversion, need for solitude) rather than 'survivalism,' reflecting individual temperament rather than panic.
“look um I'll be honest with you and just don't get alarm but I've actually moving uh with with my family U I Live Now in Grace Falls Virginia Which do of you who knows right outsite DC I'm sort of part of that big you know DC area uh but we're moving to West Virginia a large a large property at the top of the mountain you know with its own Orchard on it and so on and now we're not we're not I'm not going survival mode here so don't get me wrong”