Why Geography Explains the Ukraine War, China's Expansion and Everything Else

Population, culture, and geography are intertwined such that human geography (population patterns and cultural formation) is influenced by physical geography; for example, regions with tsetse flies cannot support beasts of burden for trade, while regions without them can, affecting economic development and cultural traits.

“if you're born in a certain part of the world uh you come out often with certain ways of thinking um certain parts of the world don't have the tsy fly and so can have Beasts of burden to carry Goods to allow trade and some parts of the world do have the tsy fly”

In Syria, while Assad's government appeared to have lost half the country, geographic analysis reveals he only lost half the desert; because 90% of Syria's population lives on either side of a single highway running north-south through the spine of the country connecting Aleppo to the Jordanian border via Homs and Damascus, the populated areas remained largely under his control.

“when we were in Syria and there was a narrative going on that Assad had lost half of the country and you factually perhaps that was correct but when he' studied the geography as part of understanding what was going on on you realize that what he' lost was half of the desert half of the sand because there's only one Motorway in the country and it runs through the spine of the country in the center of it connecting Aleppo all the way down to the Jordanian border via Hammer homes and Damascus and the bulk of the population live relatively close each side of that Motorway”

China historically was not an expansionist global power; a great Chinese admiral in the 1500s sailed across the Indian Ocean trading with Madagascar and African peoples, but a later emperor decided the Middle Kingdom was self-sufficient and withdrew from external expansion, unlike European powers.

“you probably know the history of the great Chinese Admiral in the 1500s they they actually sailed right across the Indian Ocean and they used to be trading um with Madagascar and all the African um peoples along that side of the African continent and then one of the Emperors just said n we don't want to do that we're the Middle Kingdom we're big enough”

Geography creates structural constraints on state behavior and policy options that leaders must navigate; understanding geopolitics requires recognizing what choices are genuinely available to leaders given their geographic position.

“I'm not a geographic determinist and and I actually in one of the books prisoners of geography I think I say six or seven times I'm not a geographic determinist that it is one of the elements which goes up to try to understand and explain uh what has happened”

Canada cannot become a superpower like the US despite similar oceanic protection because the Canadian Shield (permafrost and hard ground) covers most of Canada, making agriculture and settlement impossible in the interior; nearly 90% of Canadians live within a few miles of the US border, severely limiting geographic advantage.

“if you look at the population of Canada and then you impose it upon a map of Canada you will see that close to 90% probably more live within just a few miles of the American Border so yeah Canada is a massive country you look where everybody lives and it's nearly entirely along just a few mon miles above the border and that's because of the Canadian Ice Shield um it's hard ground you can't grow anything in most of it”

Geography is often overlooked in contemporary analysis of international relations because geopolitics fell out of fashion after World War II when it was partially co-opted by Nazi ideology, leading analysts to underestimate its effects through the 1950s-1990s, though it has since returned to prominence after the Cold War and 9/11.

“geopolitics as an idea uh really fell out of fashion after World War II and that was because it had been partially um bastardized by the Germans by the Nazis I should say the ideas about lean Ram Etc and it it was considered to be overly deterministic and um with sort of fascistic underpinnings”

Leadership matters significantly in shaping outcomes; Zelenskyy's decision to stay in Kyiv rather than flee made a substantial difference in the Ukraine conflict, whereas if he had accepted the American offer to evacuate, events would have unfolded differently.

“leadership clearly matters a great recent example if zalinski had actually taken the American offer and run away instead of saying what he said what was it I need missiles not a lift something like that um things would have gone differently”

The Kurds, a singular ethnic group distributed across mountainous terrain, have survived as a distinct cultural entity for centuries because mountainous and difficult terrain provides isolation, allowing them to cling to and preserve cultural traits that would be diffused in flatter, more integrated regions.

“the Kurds are um I know there's different factions within the Kurds but there are singular people you know with an identity Kurdish where do they live mountains what is the history of mountainous people because it's mountains and its difficult terrain they are more isolated often and therefore cling uh and and hold on to their cultural traits they are not as diffused as other parts of the world”

China views Taiwan as critical to the motherland emotionally and nationalistically, even though mainland China has only controlled Taiwan for less than a decade historically—the Japanese controlled it longer; nonetheless, Chinese leadership and population believe it belongs to the mainland.

“briefly back on Ukraine um Putin believes that there's no such place believes that they're all actually really Russian and again I mean it's it's complete nonsense the Chinese leadership and actually from my experience in China I would say I didn't speak to all 1.2 billion of them but the Chinese population believe it to be um Chinese the motherland you know facts and uh emotion are very different things factually I think the mainland of China has only ever controlled Taiwan for less than a decade uh the Japanese have controlled it for longer than than than than China but in in in the in their heads it's it belongs to the motherland that's nationalism”

Water scarcity is an emerging flashpoint, particularly between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Blue Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; Egypt is heavily dependent on Nile water with 110 million people living along the Nile banks, and if water supplies are cut off by upstream dams, Egypt would be forced to go to war despite potentially being unable to military defeat Ethiopia.

“I'm not convinced the Egyptians could go to war with Ethiopia but it is an existential matter and if the waters were cut off they would go to war um they would find a way um probably down the Red Sea”

Understanding US global power requires mapping where US military concrete bases are located globally—Navy bases in Bahrain, Air Force bases in Qatar, listening posts in Australia, etc.—which together represent the true geopolitical map of US power projection capacity.

“if you want to really understand a map of America a map of United States don't just look at the map of America look at a map of the world and if you've got on it where American Concrete is that's the real map of America by that where by concrete I mean look at the Navy base in Bahrain look at the Air Force Base in Qatar look at theist ing posts in Australia”

China has practiced a form of colonialism in its region by incorporating Manchuria, Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet into its sphere, but does not pursue a global empire like the European powers; instead it seeks global economic empire through trade to ensure markets for its goods.

“I would argue that they have been colonialist in the sense of taking Tibet taking jinhang taking Mongolia taking Manchuria colonist in that sense but that's just sort of their region and they I think that they are satisfied with that antiwan they're satisfied with that um you know they don't seek more territory but they do seek an economic Empire globally in order to ensure their um market for their goods because if we don't buy their goods they collapse”

The United States has significant geographic advantages that enabled its rise to superpower status: the greatest farmland in the world, the greatest internal river system (Mississippi), protection from 3,000 miles of ocean on one side and 7,000-8,000 miles on the other, friendly neighbors, and access to major ports like New Orleans.

“once you had gone from sea to shining sea you are made um because uh you have the greatest Farmland in the world the greatest expanse of it the greatest river system internal river system sorry all the rivers are internal the greatest river system in the world going down to one of the great ports New Orleans uh you have the protection of 3,000 miles one way 7 or 8,000 mies the other way of the oceans”

Over 70% of China's entire population lives east of the Hu Line because the geography east of the line is flatter, wetter, and better for farming, including allowing double-cropping (two crops per year), which historically enabled population growth and economic power.

“it's something like 70% of the entire population of China which is a lot of people uh live on the uh Eastern side of that line and the reason is the hola is the is is the the rainfall basically so again Western mountains plateaus CER less rain less soil far far fewer people”

Conflict is not the abnormal state of human affairs; throughout recorded history wars have occurred regularly; the European intellectual elite's belief in the 'end of history' after WWII was based on discarding centuries of evidence that conflict persists.

“it is a sad fact of life that that all of our recorded history we we have had conflict I mean it's not the normal State of Affairs most of the time we're not fighting each other but I go back to this thing about Francis fukiyama and the end of history in the and and and also even even without fukiyama that that intellectual Trend That Grew pretty much at the turn of the last century with a European intellectual Elite genuinely seemed to think that that was it Europe has got is postwar Europe has gone past those centuries and centuries of fighting why why would you think that why would you disregard all of our recorded history and think that we're now settled um I mean I know that sounds like a fairly Bleak view but I just think it's a fairly realistic View”

Colonial borders in the Middle East and Africa that were drawn without regard to natural geographic or ethnic boundaries have created persistent conflict and are unlikely to be redrawn, despite widespread recognition that more organic borders would be more stable.

“the lines that were drawn by the colonialists again did not necessarily always match the organic Geographic uh borders which grew up in Europe not entirely but if you look at France it is framed by fairly natural geographic areas a SE on one side a big river on the other and uh mountains at at the bottom you know there's a there's a geographic reason why Francis is the shape it is so Middle East didn't have that and wasn't allowed to grow more organically and so we are still seeing the ramifications of syes Pico”

African leaders wisely agreed not to change borders by force after independence, recognizing that unpicking colonial borders would lead to endless wars given the dozens of ethnic, cultural, and linguistic groups within artificially drawn nation-state boundaries; despite this constraint, African nations have made reasonable progress building nation-states from what are effectively multiple ethnic groups within single borders.

“the African leaders uh after they got their freedoms because the African Union decided we are not we will all agree we're not changing borders by force because they realize or or or we're not going to unpick these ridiculous lines that were drawn because they knew that if they tried it would just be endless war”

Iraq was artificially unified by the British into a single geographic area despite being three relatively distinct regions: the Kurdish mountains in the north, the majority-Sunni Arab middle section, and the Shia marshlands in the south, creating persistent conflict as these groups do not naturally share political identity.

“look at Iraq which until only when the British showed up uh did anybody think of it as a single geographic area because it isn't it's three relatively distinct areas there's the Kurdish area at the top and this is very broad brush there's the middle section which for historic reasons was majority Sunni Arab and at the bottom you've got uh the marshlands shatal Arab Waterway which is majority Shia um when you try to draw lines as the British did and said this is actually one space it's a recipe for uh problems”

Turkey controls water supplies to Syria and Iraq by building dams on the Euphrates across the Anatolian Plateau, giving Turkey significant geopolitical leverage, as does Ethiopia's control of the Blue Nile dam affecting Egypt's water supply.

“the dams that turkey has built in the Euphrates across the Anatolian plane um again they have their hand on the tap now uh and you know water is an existential issue”

China's primary geographic vulnerability was historically invasions from the north by Mongols and others from the Central Asian steppes; once China became powerful enough, it built the Great Wall as a defense and then began expanding outward to create buffer zones by incorporating Manchuria, Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet.

“the disadvantage was those pesky Mongols and others who kept coming down um from the great steps above them and um which is one of the reasons why the Great Wall of China was built when they became powerful enough they then started pushing out and they took for example Manchuria now Manchuria only 150 years ago was 90% Manchurian and now it's 90% ham so they pushed out and basically incorporate it push up into Mongolia uh push up into Xin Jang Province uh where the Muslim wegers live and eventually push out into Tibet”

China is replicating the British imperial strategy of establishing coaling stations (now ports and bases) worldwide—the 'String of Pearls'—building ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan (Gwadar), Djibouti on the Red Sea, and establishing military bases across the world to project power and protect economic interests.

“the Chinese saw well the British did this in in previous centuries you know all the coing stations that they had and you know the Chinese know how this works and they are doing the same thing both militarily and economically hence um strategically they uh when they could took control of the the port at the southern tip of uh Sri Lanka not for the Navy yet but they have um yeah they they control it basically they're building the well they've built the porting guada in Pakistan um they're making friends with everybody they can uh along the way uh the port in jibuti on the Red Sea”

In the Philippines, China and the Philippines have overlapping territorial claims in the Spratly Islands; the Philippines can maintain its territorial position only because of its treaty alliance with the US and US military basing rights, demonstrating how geographic disputes are resolved through alliance structures.

“Philippines and China have a number of um overlapping claims to territory the spratly islands being the best known and the Philippine says Nope those are ours and China says no those are ours and Philippines says don't try anything because we've got a friend over here called the United States of America and that's why we've just given them basing rights in five more bases and we're a treaty Ally of theirs”

China's soft underbelly is its coastline where colonialists historically arrived; China is determined to prevent future vulnerability by building many short-range ship missiles to push foreigners away from its coastline, treating this as the last weak spot in its geographic position.

“the soft underbelly of China is the coastline or it was and that's where most of the colonialists the Brits and others arrived and imposed the centy of humiliation upon them and that's never going to happen again because they are now back on the world stage as a superpower and when you look at um the military the amount of money they're spending on shorter ship missiles to just push the foreigners away from the coastline because that's the last uh weak spot in China”

Taiwan is strategically critical to China because it sits in front of China's coastline; if the US and its allies (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines) remain arrayed against China, they can blockade China's access to global markets, which would force China's factories to close and cause unemployment to spike—China's greatest fear.

“you look at out from China and in front of you what you see with Taiwan in the middle are all these friends of America South Korea Japan Taiwan Philippines and uh you could very easily blockade China which is their greatest fear because you blockade them they're not getting their goods out to Market their the factories closed unemployment Rockets”

Alfred Mackinder's Heartland Theory and Rimland Theory are 'great theories' but cannot be proven; they remain useful conceptual frameworks even though empirical verification is impossible

“as an aside it's a bit like Alfred mackinder's Heartland theory you know it's a great Theory you know he who controls the Heartland controls the world well the rimland theory but you can't actually prove them”