Andrew Boyd — State of Play: Cyber Warfare and Security | Prof G Conversations
What this covers
Andrew Boyd, a former CIA officer and distinguished expert in the fields of cyber operations and geopolitics, joins Scott to discuss the current cyber warfare environment. We also learn about Andrew’s background in the public sector and what it takes to be in the field of counterterrorism.
Timestamps: 00:00 In this episode 00:52 Walk us through your time in the public sector to where you are now? 02:08 What do people get right and wrong about the culture of the CIA? 03:35 Give us examples of where Hollywood accurately portrays CIA operations 04:35 What sorts of people thrive in the CIA? 05:49 What are the big forces shaping cyber warfare? 09:10 What happens when you can no longer trust anything? 10:46 Which nations are defending and deploying cyber threats most efficiently? 12:32 The role cybersecurity is playing in the conflict in the Middle East 14:28 What is the Kingdom’s involvement? 16:56 How does the US want interactions within the Middle East to play out? 18:55 Russia vs Ukraine. 21:04 China vs. USA 22:12 Make the case for working in the public sector
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Andrew Bustamante argues that successful national security service requires self-awareness and adaptability across ambiguous environments rather than specific technical skills, and that US security interests are best served through measured engagement with rivals rather than perpetual conflict or withdrawal.
- Self-awareness and ability to operate in ambiguity are more predictive of intelligence officer success than language skills or technical expertise
- US innovation capacity exceeds rivals despite open-society vulnerabilities, making strategic engagement with China preferable to escalation
- Sustained support for Ukraine is essential to NATO structure, but measured US-China relations and Iran-Saudi de-escalation serve broader regional stability
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CIA operations and culture bear little resemblance to Hollywood depictions; the reality involves very smart people doing challenging work, but the work itself is not fundamentally different from serious professionals in other disciplines, with the main distinction being a willingness to spend extended time overseas in difficult environments.
“CIA is a lot of very smart people doing some very challenging work but frankly they're not any different than any other professional in any other discipline who takes their job seriously and wants to be part of an an elite institution it takes a different you know sort of person who wants to spend the bulk of their adult life overseas uh potentially in the third world or the fourth world”
The Iraq War in 2003 created lasting chaos and regional instability by removing Saddam Hussein, who served as a buffer to Iranian expansion, thereby inadvertently creating conditions for Iran to move into Baghdad and consolidate regional power for years afterward.
“the invasion of Iraq in 2003 sort of flipped the boat on a whole lot of things um I mean I couldn't say this until the end of September uh of 2023 uh but the fact of the matter is I I wasn't a fan of the invasion of Iraq um It caused an enormous amount of chaos that is going to continue for for a generation at least”
Artificial intelligence and machine learning will be the primary shapers of cyber conflict in 2024, with particular impact on how criminal actors can now generate idiomatically correct phishing emails and build exploits without requiring advanced hacking skills.
“I mean I think AIML is going to shape where we are in in cyber conflict so to speak uh in 2024”
Iran uses cyber tools effectively for coercive diplomacy rather than large-scale disruption, as demonstrated by operations against Albanian computer systems to punish Albania for hosting a MEK (Mujahedin-e Khalq) opposition group, showing how cyber operations can achieve diplomatic objectives.
“the Iranians they use their cyber tools uh in a very different and you know again this is in a position of advocacy it's a position of strategic analysis very effectively in the realm of coercive diplomacy they took down Albanian computer systems to demonstrate their dissatisfaction with the albanians hosting the muad alh Hal an Iranian opposition group uh and demonstrated that you can use your cyber tools to achieve diplomatic ends”
A significant unresolved debate exists in the technological, policy, and strategy communities (particularly in Washington DC) about what constitutes 'cyber warfare' and how to define it, with different countries using cyber tools for fundamentally different purposes.
“you know this is a massive debate in the technological Community but also in the policy and strategy Community here here in Washington DC like what is cyber warfare and how do we Define it that debate is not resolved I mean different countries use their cyber tools for different things”
China's primary cyber strategy is intelligence collection and intellectual property theft across sectors from healthcare to the defense industrial base, in order to 'leapfrog' US technological advancement by utilizing American research and development.
“the CH Chinese you use their cyber tools for intelligence collection primarily in in the realm of a intellectual property theft from health care companies all the way to the defense industrial base um and and essentially trying to lead frog uh over the United States technologically by utilizing our our research and development”
The United States has a decisive advantage in cyber innovation capacity and ability to capitalize on academic research, despite public perception to the contrary, though this is offset by the vulnerability created by an open internet compared to countries that control network access like China and Russia.
“I mean I I think the United States is is is Head and Shoulders above everyone else and in in in our Innovative capacity our ability uh to to capitalize on Academia and and all the work that they're doing despite you know the Press uh indicating otherwise”
The most important attribute for a successful operations officer in CIA is self-awareness and constructive self-criticism regarding one's professional skills and limitations, rather than specific technical competencies like foreign language proficiency or other domain expertise.
“the most important attribute for a you know a futur future successful uh operations officer is to be self-aware and to be you know not brutally so but to be self-critical when one has to be and to understand what your skills and your limitations are uh professionally that's really what I've always as a as a leader in CIA that's what I've really looked for I haven't looked for any specific skill set like this guy's a great Mandarin speaker this guy's a great uh Arabic speaker it's really that self-awareness thing”
October 7th will be viewed historically as one of the most critical moments in Middle Eastern history, and Hamas likely timed the attack because Arab states were normalizing relations with Israel (Saudi Arabia and UAE were on the cusp of recognition), which would have left Hamas geopolitically isolated and marginalized.
“October 7th I mean I think we'll look back historically you know a decade from now as being one of the most critical historical moments in the history of the Middle East and obviously specifically uh Israel uh as far as the Middle East itself goes I mean I think up until October 6th the Arab world was in a trajectory slowly but surely of recognizing the state of Israel I mean the Saudis were on the cusp of doing that uh the amadis uh you know were were very close to to to basically normalizing you know fully relationships with with with Israel”
Reducing trade friction and normalizing US-China economic relations represents the largest potential 'tax cut' (economic benefit) available to the US economy due to the structural complementarities between US inflation problems and China's low growth plus Chinese manufacturing capacity.
“the West is struggling with inflation uh China is struggling with low growth we have IP Capital they have unbelievable manufacturing might aren't there just a ton of incentives for a thaw in us China relations I think there are and I I think in your 2024 predictions you you may have addressed that that the the biggest I think you I forget exactly how you said it but I think you said that the biggest tax cut we could have in the United States was a thwing of the relationships between uh China and the United States”
Particular serious concerns in US-China relations include Chinese intellectual property theft, prepositioning of cyber tools in telecommunications networks (particularly Volt Typhoon operations in Guam), and these issues must be addressed even while pursuing rapprochement.
“there are you know very particular things things that the Chinese do you know again back to my point on intellectual property theft um you know prepositioning of cyber tools um what what Microsoft is called Vol tyone essentially the pre-positioning of tools and Telecommunications networks uh in Guam and elsewhere um I mean those are all very you know serious issues that we have to address”
North Korea uses cyber tools primarily to steal cryptocurrency and convert it into fiat currency to fund weapons programs, compensating for comprehensive international sanctions that cut off traditional funding sources.
“the North Koreans um they use their cyber tools to make up for the sanctions they don't have any money because they're sanctioned on on almost every front you could imagine so they use their cyber tools to steal cryptocurrency then attempt to convert it into fiat currency to fund their weapons programs uh and whatnot”
The October 7th events have caused Ukraine to lose media and political attention and momentum, and this represents a real risk that US Congress will lack sufficient political will to continue funding and military aid to Ukraine.
“the risk of of it going off the the the front page uh and and it has since October 7th you're correct uh and I I honestly think the trajectory will continue as you know we have our 2024 election cycle I mean the the main risk of that is that there's not enough moment on the hill to continue to fund uh the president's programs uh and the aid programs the military support programs to Ukraine”
Ukraine will ultimately prevail if the US continues to provide financial and military support, and Ukrainian success is essential to NATO's security structure and credibility; if Ukraine fails, the entire structure of NATO and European security will be upended.
“I mean I think ultimately if we can continue to write the checks uh as US government to support the ukrainians they're ultimately going to Prevail I think they have to Prevail I think the whole structure of NATO the whole structure of how we secure Europe will be upended if they don't succeed”
Russia uses cyber tools primarily for disruption of the Western-led international order, including intelligence collection, and attempted critical infrastructure disruption, but the efficacy of these tools has proven more limited than expected following Ukraine's experience.
“the Russians are are tornado uh the Russians really like to use their tools just to disrupt the the current order uh as we know it what western United States LED they've also use their cyber tools for intelligence collection but also attempting to disrupt critical infrastructure but they as we've learned since the they invaded Ukraine those tools aren't what what we thought they would be uh and they there are quite a few limitations”
Saudi Arabia under Muhammad bin Salman has made progress modernizing and opening the kingdom, though it has committed serious human rights abuses including the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and therefore should not be expected to become a progressive democracy but can be a productive economic partner.
“now Saudi Arabia is not perfect uh I mean they are the Muhammad bin Salan has has made a lot of progress uh has opened up the kingdom to to this to a great degree but um there are certain human rights issues that I do think you know are worth considering uh you know we can go back to a few years ago on Jamal kogi and what that all meant and and the murder of Jamal kogi so I mean it's it's not as if if the Kingdom's going to become a a a progressive you know jump foring democracy I mean it's just not going to happen is it going to be a productive economic partner uh for Israel for the United States uh for the rest of the Arab world absolutely”
The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement and dialogue, initiated by Saudi Arabia, may be one of the most important developments for preventing conflict between the two countries and avoiding a destabilizing cross-Persian Gulf conflict that would disrupt the entire region and world.
“the Saudis have initiated a reproach not not a full one but at least a dialogue with Iranian I think that may be one of the most important things to to to at least nip in the bud the potential for conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran and a a cross Persian Gulf conflict because that that you know would actually precipitate a a larger uh conflict that that just would be disruptive uh to the entire region if not the world”
Government service, including CIA and State Department work, offers opportunities to live multiple lifetimes of experience, with overseas assignments providing experiences far beyond what most Americans encounter, and this experiential value outweighs the financial opportunity cost of not pursuing private sector career.
“giving me an extraordinary opportunity over the course of three plus decades to live multiple life lifetimes really a day in Baghdad uh was like worth two weeks back here in Washington I mean the things that I would experience the things that I would see um just you know only an infantes small group of Americans get to get to experience those are they dangerous Have I Lost friends of mine in situations like that yes but that doesn't negate from the impact that it had on my life”
Sufficient economic and strategic interests exist that maintaining US-China adversarial relationship serves neither party, and both should seek stability even if they are not allies.
“there's too much at stake economically there's too much at stake from a just a a well-being of our our respective societies and and the Chinese Comm econom is in in Decline as you've noted and I think it's probably in their interest as well”
Saudi-Israeli normalization will resume by end of 2024 or beginning of 2025 despite October 7th conflict disruption, as long as Israel does not remain in prolonged war in Gaza, because both Saudi Arabia and Israel have deep mutual interests in economic partnership and technological collaboration.
“the idea that the the S Saudi Israeli reproach m is put on Ice in perpetuity I don't think that's true I think by the end of 2024 beginning to 2025 those discussions will reopen as long as Israel is not in all that war in Gaza”
The Israeli government (specifically Netanyahu administration) and other Middle Eastern governments will not survive the current conflict due to its scale and consequences, and a political reset is necessary in which any successor Israeli government must address both Israeli security and Palestinian rights for lasting peace.
“I think you know there are going to be governments in the Middle East principally the N Yahoo government who do not survive this um I think there's going to be a reset in politics I I and I hope for the sake of Peace uh in the future that it's a government that that looks at not only defending Israeli territory but the rights uh of the Palestinian people destroy Hamas okay okay but the rights of the of the Palestinian people have to be addressed um otherwise you know it'll be again an Epoch of inata and non-stop conflict”
Breiterman was not publicly allowed to criticize the Iraq War invasion until the end of September 2023, when he retired from the CIA, suggesting prior institutional constraints on critical speech by active intelligence officers.
“I couldn't say this until the end of September uh of 2023 uh but the fact of the matter is I I wasn't a fan of the invasion of Iraq um it caused an enormous amount of chaos”
Arab nations have remained relatively quiet in response to October 7th because they are planning to let the conflict cool down and then re-engage in broader regional discussions, indicating a pragmatic approach focused on long-term interests rather than immediate solidarity with either side.
“the kingdom has been oddly quiet and it strikes me that that the two largest economies just have a lot of mutual interest in tying up together and uh what I have seen um I've been struck by how quiet uh some of uh the Arab nation states have been around this and that strikes me is that they're planning to hopefully let this cool down and then and then re-engage”
Public service professionals should not focus on maximizing income in their youth (20s-30s) but should instead exercise different skills and contribute to their country, as wealth can be acquired later in life after service.
“don't don't burn your youth your 20s and your 30s making money you you can make money later uh do something that where you really you know exercise muscles that you wouldn't exercise otherwise and give give back to your country uh and and be in a position of federal service however you define that”
Defensive capacity in cybersecurity advances in parallel with offensive capacity, and companies and government agencies are already deploying defensive tools and services to protect businesses against AI-enabled cyber threats.
“as technology advances in offensive capacity for criminal entities or nation states so does the defensive capacity and and I do think we're going to have you know plenty of companies and they're already coming above the water line uh attempting uh to come up with defensive software uh and or you know Security Services for small businesses large Enterprises uh to Def defend against this”
The US intelligence community serves policymakers and Congress and does not independently advocate for specific foreign policies like perpetual Saudi-Iran conflict; if US intelligence appears to favor conflict escalation, it reflects policy decisions from elected officials, not intelligence community preference.
“I can say you know again this is as a private citizen but based on my experience I don't think anyone in the US intelligence Community would be wanting that sort of conflict to be perpetuated I mean the the US intelligence Community serves the policy maker and and the legisl branch in other ways um um if that is the policy of the United States which it isn't uh that may be the case”
Breiterman spent his entire Foreign Service career in the Arab world, learned Arabic, and spent a decade as a State Department Foreign Service Officer at various Middle Eastern embassies.
“fell in love with the overseas environment so took the foreign service exam joined the foreign Services you noted um and spent all of it uh learned Arabic spent all of it in the Arab world”
Ukraine has a potential advantage from reduced media coverage in that it can conduct quiet offensive operations against Russia without constant public scrutiny, allowing more operational freedom.
“there is certain Advantage uh for the ukrainians not being on the front page every day and that they can you know not quietly in Ukraine because everybody in Ukraine knows what's going on there U but they can continue uh their quiet offensive against the Russians and and you know attempt to succeed”
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has stalled and this stalling coincided with the October 7th conflict, but this stalling should not be considered permanent; Ukrainians are innovative and have successfully applied new technologies, particularly in drone operations.
“there's a lot of press on the offensive the Ukrainian counter offensive uh stalling that is a real thing that that seemed to coincide with with the October 7th incidents I don't think that's a permanent condition I think ukrainians are Innovative uh theyve applied technology that hasn't really been used particularly in drone space”
The speaker served as director of the CIA Center for Cyber Intelligence at the time of retirement and held the rank of Senior Intelligence Service (SIS 5), the most senior rank for career CIA professionals, earning recognition including the Intelligence Medal of Merit and Presidential Rank Award.
“Andrew Bo is a distinguished expert in intelligence cyber operations and geopolitics he most recently served as the director of the CIA Center for cyber intelligence where he oversaw operations against foreign cyber threats upon retirement from the CIA Andy held the rank of senior intelligence service five the most senior ranked for career CIA Professionals in addition Andy has earned a number of recognitions including the intelligence medal of Merit and the presidential rank award”
Encouraging Ukraine to come to a negotiating table with Russia is an absurd proposition unless Ukraine independently decides to do so, and the US should not pressure Ukraine toward negotiations it doesn't seek.
“this idea that we're going to encourage the ukrainians to come to the negotiating table with the Russians is frankly an absurd proposition unless the ukrainians decide on their own to do so”
The events of September 11, 2001 transformed the speaker's professional trajectory and led him to conclude that his life's work should be in the national security arena, particularly counterterrorism.
“but 911 happened that transformed obviously you know much of my generation uh but for me personally just changed the trajectory of my professional life and what I wanted to do and by the end of of September 11th 2001 I concluded what I wanted my life life's work to be uh to work in the National Security Arena and at least for a major portion of my career in the counterterrorism space”
Individuals who serve in government, regardless of duration (2-3 years to 30+ years), leave satisfied that they had meaningful impact and made a difference for people, providing psychological reward beyond compensation.
“you leave very satisfied that you had an impact on people you weren't getting paid enough but you can always make money so what I would say is you know don't don't burn your youth your 20s and your 30s making money”
The 2023 AI executive order from the White House is an unusually technical document for presidential guidance, which indicates serious policy recognition of both AI opportunities and risks to business security, societal governance, election integrity, and disinformation.
“an an AI executive order went out which I think it's an extremely technical document for a document coming from the White House but what it demonstrates is a recognition of not only the promise of this sort of Technology but the threat it could pose”
The speaker served five years as an intelligence officer in the Air Force before transitioning to the Foreign Service, indicating a career path from military intelligence to diplomatic work.
“spent uh five years as an intelligence officer in the Air Force I fell in love with the overseas environment so took the foreign service exam joined the foreign Services you noted um and spent all of it uh learned Arabic spent all of it in the Arab world”
The Air Force Academy is a competitive institution to which the speaker applied as one of two college choices, reflecting high academic standards and prestige.
“I decided to only apply to two schools much to my mother shrin uh the Naval Academy and the Air Force Academy I ended up attending the Air Force Academy”
Zero Dark Thirty is an accurate depiction of CIA work because while it amalgamates multiple storylines into a single movie narrative, each individual storyline portrayed in the film is historically accurate.
“So Zero Dark 30 the movie that came after the bin Laden operation yeah you know the only fictitious part of it it it amalgamates a whole bunch of storylines uh into one you know two-hour movie script um but each one of the story lines you know for the most part was pretty accurate”