Peter Schiff & Jack Mallers Debate Bitcoin Vs. Gold, Collapse Of Dollar
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What is the best form of money? Which asset has the best risk-return profile? Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, joins Peter Schiff, Chief Market Strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, debate the monetary asset properties of Bitcoin and gold.
*This video was recorded on September 5, 2024
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0:00 - Intro 2:00 - U.S. sovereign debt crisis 5:34 - Bullish hard assets 7:19 - Outlook for gold 10:28 - Outlook for Bitcoin 14:00 - The "greatest money" 18:17 - Bitcoin vs gold's performance 23:00 - Risks of Bitcoin 28:00 - Properties of Bitcoin 32:00 - "Value" of money 35:20 - Intrinsic value of gold 39:30 - Intrinsic value of Bitcoin 43:40 - Bitcoin as medium of exchange 52:40 - Bitcoin strategic reserve 1:08:00 - What would crash Bitcoin? 1:11:00 - What would convince Peter to adopt BTC? 1:15:15 - Monetary asset properties 1:22:45 - Bitcoin adoption as money 1:23:20 - Peter Schiff 1:25:30 - Jack Mallers
#bitcoin #gold #investing
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Schiff and Mallers debate whether gold or Bitcoin is superior money: Schiff argues gold has intrinsic value from industrial use and historical monetary success, while Mallers contends Bitcoin's fixed supply, portability, and censorship resistance make it superior money for a globally connected world that gold failed to serve.
- Gold has 2,000+ years of proven monetary history and real industrial demand; Bitcoin is untested as actual currency
- Bitcoin enables trustless transactions across borders without government/central party control; gold requires intermediaries for settlement
- Both speakers agree the US faces currency debasement and inflation ahead; they differ on which asset provides better protection
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The US dollar has lost more than 99% of its value against gold since the Federal Reserve was created, declining from $20 per ounce in 1789 when the Constitution was ratified to requiring far more dollars per ounce today.
“when the Federal Reserve was first created uh you you only needed $20 to buy an ounce of gold and that's how many dollars you needed to buy an ounce of gold in in 1789 when we ratified the Constitution but once we got the federal government to print money uh dollars have lost better than 99% of their value uh against against gold”
Private companies historically issued their own currency backed by gold before governments did, with warehouse receipts for gold becoming more negotiable than physical gold, so gold tokenization could be reintroduced as private currency without government issuing it.
“remember um before governments issued paper currency private companies issued their own note [15:47] currency back by gold in fact going back to the old uh blacksmith and a warehouse receipt people found that it was easier to negotiate a receipt for gold than go to the blacksmith and actually get their gold”
Moneys emerge from barter systems because goods eventually need end users—cigarettes work as prison currency because someone in the jail actually wants to smoke them, providing the basis for others to accept them as money and eventually trade them for other goods.
“when gold became muddy because of all the properties that Bitcoin copied um people didn't need to use gold you didn't have to be a jeweler you didn't have to be a computer chip maker to accept the gold but ultimately it was that real demand that uh allowed it to be money for example you know in uh after the second world war or even more recently in prisons cigarettes are muddy”
People have successfully trusted counterparties for centuries to hold gold and insurance companies function based on counterparty trust, so the presence of necessary trust in monetary systems is not a flaw but a feature of capitalism.
“people trust counterparties that's part of capitalism it's the beauty of capitalism you have reputations you compete for reputations if people couldn't use counterparties there to be no insurance industry all insurance is based on a counterparty risk”
Under Bretton Woods, the world accepted the US dollar as reserve currency only because it was redeemable in gold on demand; without gold backing, Bretton Woods would not have happened and no country would have accepted the dollar as its reserves.
“the only reason that private companies don't provide an alternative is just because of the cost and the main cost is government regulation if you didn't have the the all these AML kyc all these laws it would be very easy very simple for gold to be reintroduced into the monetary system and it would be adopted almost immediately by everybody”
The uncertainty principle of human existence means we cannot predict the future, so demanding certainty about Bitcoin's longevity is actually requiring certainty about all future events—an impossible standard.
“the the state of being human is the future is permanently uncertain when I walked into my building today I could have taken the stairs of the elevator I made a calculated decision based on risk market assessment”
The US is facing a sovereign debt crisis because interest payments on the national debt now exceed $1 trillion annually, making it the third-largest budget line item after Social Security and Medicare, and these interest costs are spiraling out of control with pressure mounting on the Federal Reserve to return to quantitative easing.
“now it's uh over a trillion a year it's the third biggest line item in the budget um more than National Defense but in another year or two it's going to be bigger than Social Security and Medicare”
Ride-sharing companies like Uber and package delivery companies like FedEx succeeded by competing against regulated monopolies (taxis, postal service), showing that free market alternatives can overcome government protection of incumbents.
“you know uh people [1:20:43] now a lot of people I use Uber instead of local taxis and that's you know taxes were expensive because governments were granting monopolies uh selling medallions and so Uber came in and exploited that uh FedEx and other delivery companies came in and undercut the post office”
Value is subjective—what you're willing to pay for water depends on your thirst level, and the same subjectivity applies to money, which emerges through market action when multiple people agree to use something for exchange.
“value is subjective meaning David if I were to say I'm going to sell you a bottle of water for 50 cents you say okay that sounds like a fair deal right if I say you need this bottle of water to survive because you're so parched and it's going to cost you your entire net worth you're going to buy the water because you want to live so you know an economy people make decision at the margins value is subjective”
Gold was demonetized not because it failed functionally but because politicians didn't want gold because it constrained their ability to run deficits and create inflation—gold acts like a 'chaperone at the prom' preventing the government from doing things it wants to do.
“the reason it got demonetized over time was that politicians didn't want gold because gold stood in the way of their grandio schemes to buy votes I mean gold is uh keeps government honest it's like the chaperon at the high school prom uh but you know the kids want to get rid of the shopone because they want to do stuff that the shop won't allow”
Value is entirely subjective; people subjectively value digital properties like cell phone data (emails, photos, files, passwords) that have no physical form, proving that value does not require physicality or consumability.
“if I were to say hand me your cell phone I'll keep it in the physical form that Dave or that uh that Peter value so much so physically your phone wouldn't change but I'm going to wipe all the data I'm going to delete all your emails all of your photos all of your file storage all of your passwords you would probably say no that's a value to you you're subjectively valuing something that's digital and isn't physically real”
Inflation is fundamentally quantitative easing and money printing by the Federal Reserve to monetize government deficit spending, and larger deficits under either Trump or Harris will force the Fed to create even more inflation to finance them.
“the inflation which is basically quantitative easing it's printing money to to monetize government deficit spending we're going to have bigger deficits under either Trump or uh Harris us and the FED is going to create even more inflation to finance them”
The Federal Reserve stopped hiking interest rates too soon not because it won the battle against inflation but because banks started to fail and the collateral damage in the financial sector became too great, creating pressure to lower rates despite inflation rising.
“the FED stopped hiking too soon it should have hiked rates more uh but it stopped because the banks started to fail uh not because it it won the battle against inflation but because the collateral damage in in the financial sector was too great”
We are in an early form of fiscal dominance where the Treasury is now driving monetary policy rather than the Federal Reserve, and Jerome Powell matters less than Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in determining economic outcomes.
“I think he maybe did up until you know covid but right now it's it's Janet Yellen I think we're living in some early form of fiscal dominance”
Gold has already succeeded at becoming world reserve money through Bretton Woods and historically pre-1971, so asking Mallers what would change his mind on Bitcoin is backward—gold has proven itself while Bitcoin is unproven.
“Gold's already done that Gold's already succeeded at becoming the you know the money of the world and uh you before uh Bretton Woods gold was the reserve for all paper currency”
The next global reserve currency will not be fiat currency like the Euro, Yen, Pound, or Chinese Yuan, but rather a return to gold as the anchor, restoring actual money to the monetary system.
“I think that the next Reserve currency is not a currency at all it's not going to be the Euro it's not going to be the Yen or the pound or the Chinese R&B it's going to be gold I think gold is going to be the anchor again and restore money to the monetary [1:11:51] system we have a monetary system with no money right now”
Many people buying Bitcoin through ETFs defeats the whole purpose of Bitcoin, which is supposed to enable self-custody and peer-to-peer transactions without third parties, as ETFs require storing Bitcoin with a custodian.
“now so many people are buying their Bitcoin through ETFs which defeats the whole purpose of the Bitcoin in the first place”
Governments don't like competition, privacy, free speech, and competing money because these threaten state control, so they erect regulatory barriers against gold while tolerat Bitcoin.
“the government doesn't like competition right I mean and so gold is competition for dollars or any other fiat currency so the government tries to erect barriers...the government doesn't like uh Free Speech they don't like privacy”
Every man-made product has been improved upon—the first airplane, automobile, computer, and television were never the best—so Bitcoin will eventually be replaced by better cryptocurrency, making current Bitcoin holdings potentially worthless.
“can you think of one example in human history where something that man made man did not later make better I mean gold was made by God right it's here [34:29] from The Big Bang but humans created bitcoin uh and they can create something better than Bitcoin I mean the first airplane was not the best airplane the first automobile was not the best automobile”
Gold had a major appreciation phase from 2001 to 2011, rising from $270 to $1,900, before sideways movement, so comparing Bitcoin's recent performance to gold's recent returns ignores this earlier gold cycle.
“yeah gold over that time period was going sideways because you forget get from 20 2001 to 2011 Gold went from 270 to 1900 so it had a huge move really before Bitcoin came on the [13:39] scene and then kind of digested that move”
Risk and volatility are not the same thing—risk is the probability of permanent loss of capital, while volatility is the frequency or magnitude of price fluctuations, and Bitcoin has extremely low risk because the code and network are sound, even though it has extreme volatility.
“risk is not the same thing as volatility risk refers to the probability of a permanent loss of capital risk would be that the Bitcoin code or the Bitcoin Network outright fails you can make an argument that Bitcoin is actually the least risky asset ever because it's the only asset you can store in your head Bitcoin is however extremely volatile”
Scarcity itself does not determine value—gold has value not because it's scarce but because it has unique physical properties, and similarly mercury is far more scarce than gold but has much lower price because it lacks gold's use cases.
“scarcity in it of itself doesn't mean anything I mean gold is not valuable because it's scarce...its value is not from its scarcity but from its [30:19] properties as a metal...Mercury is far more scarce than gold yet the price is much lower because it doesn't have the use case is gold”
Trump initially called Bitcoin a scam and fraud when he was president, but flipped his position once he became a candidate and had financial interest in supporting it, showing the Bitcoin stance is politically motivated pandering.
“I agree with what Trump said when he was president when he said it was a scam it was a fraud it was a Ponzi you know now that he's a candidate for president all of a sudden you know he's done the flip-flop”
To own a Van Gogh provides pride and personal enjoyment for wealthy collectors who display it, giving it value among art collectors—this use-value is what generates demand.
“to own a van go to hang a van go there's a lot of pride in that there's you know there's a lot of enjoyment that comes out of having a very scarce valuable painting that was pain hundreds of years ago by one of the most famous artists who have ever lived right there's there's value there among art collectors who who value that and when you have a lot of money and you got to figure out hey what am I going to do I've got billions of dollars what can I do I'll buy some of these uh great works of art and I can hang it up in my study and you know I could show it to my friends or just enjoy the beauty of this painting on a personal level”
Trump did nothing in his first term to really turn the tide on America's problems—budget deficits got bigger and trade deficits hit record highs—so there should be no expectation he will do anything different in a second term despite being better than the alternative.
“Trump did nothing in his first term uh to to Really Turn the tide and I'm hopeful but not uh you know don't expect him to do [5:17] anything different in a second okay”
All Bitcoin holders must eventually be sellers because they cannot buy goods and services with Bitcoin—they will have to convert it to dollars or other currencies, meaning there must be continuous inflow of new buyers for the price to stay high, creating a Ponzi-like structure.
“all the buyers are eventually going to be sellers there needs to be new buyers to come in to make that possible...like any uh pyramid scheme you know Ponzi Chain Letter you know I call Bitcoin a blockchain letter”
Bitcoin's value is derived the same way fiat currency value is derived—from belief and confidence that people will want it in the future—and the collapse of this belief poses a greater risk than counterparty risk in gold-backed systems.
“what we do have to worry about is something that's much riskier and that is that the confidence in Bitcoin collapses and there goes the price because Bitcoin derives its value from the same way that fiat currency does it's a belief system”
The US dollar is already at a 13-year low against the Swiss franc and is about 7% away from an all-time record low, signaling early breakdown of the dollar's reserve currency status.
“we're already at a 13year low against the Swiss frank about 7% away from an all-time record low uh the dollar is”
All major central banks including BRICS countries are buying gold, not Bitcoin, and El Salvador is the only country that owns Bitcoin as a reserve, showing real countries prefer gold while only one outlier adopted Bitcoin.
“central banks have been buying gold uh for years now they're accumulating gold none of them are buying Bitcoin all you got is El Salvador that's the one country that owns Bitcoin but all the real countries in the world are buying gold all the big brick countries they're not buying any Bitcoin right if Bitcoin was so great why aren't the Chinese buying it why aren't the Russians buying it right why aren't the Indians buying it they're buying gold they they're not buying Bitcoin”
Despite the fastest interest rate hike ever and banking system stress, gold, Bitcoin, and US stock markets have all reached all-time highs in the past few years, indicating that dollar liquidity remains ample despite rate increases.
“clearly there's dollar liquidity even though we've had the fastest rate hike ever they've tripped up Banks you've seen gold Bitcoin and US Stock markets all make highs Within last you know few years”
Bitcoin does not qualify as money because money must be the most marketable commodity and the commodity must have value unto itself, but Bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is only used for speculation with the hope that someone else will pay a higher price.
“I don't think it qualifies as as money at all uh because money has to be the most marketable commodity uh and the commodity has to have value unto itself and Bitcoin has none uh Bitcoin is used [14:44] uh to exchange and you could speculate on it you can buy it and maybe somebody else will pay a higher price but apart from that it's not used for anything”
Money is the market good that you acquire not to consume it but to exchange it for something later—it's what you take your time, energy, labor, and effort to trade so you can acquire the things you need in your life at a later point, and Bitcoin was designed and purpose-built to fulfill that market good function.
“I think David just as a reminder for the audience money was born out of barter money is the market good that you acquire not to consume it but to exchange it for something later it's what you take your time and energy your labor your effort and you trade it in so that you can acquire the things that you need in your life at a later point and Bitcoin was designed and purpose built to fulfill that market good that is not what Tesla stock was built for Te Tesla stock is an investment Tesla stock is equity and a business Bitcoin is supposed to be money”
Markets and money emerge from free markets to elect the best money, and historically Bitcoin has 'won at being money every single year,' with the market being the true judge of what constitutes good money.
“money emerges as a market good from the free market and the market elects the money that is best at being money and if you look at the data historically bitcoin's won at being money every single year”
The US has a debt problem where debt-to-GDP ratio is high, and Bitcoin offers 60-70% year-over-year growth that can literally 'buy growth off the shelf' to improve the debt ratio faster than economic growth alone.
“Bitcoin you can literally buy [55:13] growth off the shelf it's it's ridiculous so I want the United States to own the fastest growing Market good in the history of mankind and the scarcest market good in the history of mankind”
All of Schiff's arguments against Bitcoin could equally apply to gold, including the claims about needing government/central parties, lack of use cases, volatility risk—demonstrating his arguments are contradictory and attack-driven rather than logically consistent.
“all of his claims against Bitcoin are the same with gold again like what's the confidence that someone will value Bitcoin tomorrow what's the confidence someone will value gold tomorrow”
Bitcoin equals technology plus fiat liquidity—Bitcoin's adoption is driven not just by its properties but by fiat currency debasement, which creates demand for alternatives.
“I look at Bitcoin Bitcoin to me equals technology plus Fiat liquidity and so the Fiat liquidity were to slow down because for whatever reason government spending went way down”
Gold can be tokenized and serve as the basis for a better digital monetary system than Bitcoin because gold can be infinitely divided, sent globally quickly and cheaply, and carries intrinsic value from industrial and jewelry use, without needing to sacrifice those use cases.
“with the internet and with blockchain or without blockchain gold can actually function as much better money than it ever has in the past and and it did a pretty good job for hundreds or thousands of years [15:15] because you could take gold you could tokenize it and now I could uh divide it infinitely into tiny little specs I can send it across the world as quickly in fact I can send it faster than I can send Bitcoin can send it for less money than I can set Bitcoin”
Politicians want votes and money, so Bitcoin group is a great risk-reward because bitcoiners have wealth and could be single-issue voters—government support for Bitcoin doesn't lose non-Bitcoin voters because Bitcoin is not divisive like abortion; it gains Bitcoin votes without losing others.
“obviously politicians want two things they want votes and they want money and a lot of bitcoiners have money thanks to the big gain and there's a lot of them that could vote and so it makes sense to me that politicians who care most about getting reelected and to do that you need money and votes that they're going to Pander to a special interest group and I think the crypto group is a great uh you know risk reward because there's probably a lot of people that would be a single-issue voter whichever side promises to buy up a bunch of Bitcoin and make me Rich you know just like somebody promises to forgive a student loan if I got a lot of student loans that's my candidate whoever's going to forgive my debt they got my vote right if I'm a single-issue voter you can get a lot of votes by pandering to the bitcoiners but what's great about it is you don't necessarily lose any votes because the people who don't own Bitcoin probably couldn't care less they don't even pay attention it's not divisive like pro-life pro-choice”
More companies were advertising Bitcoin acceptance in 2017 than now, showing Bitcoin has not successfully become a currency despite 13 years of existence and the lack of real merchant adoption proves it cannot function as money.
“I think more companies were advertising that they accepted Bitcoin in 2017 than now I mean b Bitcoin nowhere do I see I don't go into any stores H and you know I'm in Puerto Rico [43:46] now where there's a lot of you uh bitcoiners around me I mean it's not like people here aren't in Bitcoin but I don't go into any stores where they say you know here paying Bitcoin”
Gold cannot achieve transaction finality without the help of a government or central party, whereas Bitcoin creates a scarce bearer instrument with a network that achieves finality without reliance on any government or central party, which is why Bitcoin solved what gold failed to do.
“the real problem with gold is that unfortunately it has to centralize the problem is that gold can't achieve transaction finality without the help of a government or a central party...that's fundamentally what Bitcoin solved is that you were able to create a scarce Bearer instrument and a network that can achieve finality in transactional settlement without the Reliance on any government or Central party”
Government adoption of Bitcoin through a strategic reserve bill requiring the US to buy 1 million Bitcoin (5% of total supply) is not a legitimate policy goal but rather a government bailout for Bitcoin holders who are running out of retail buyers to push prices higher.
“I know that bitcoiners realize that they're running out of individuals that are dumb enough to buy Bitcoin so now let's get the politicians to do it cuz it's not even their money right it's somebody else's money”
Bitcoin's need for more history and proof before adoption is a personal bias problem for Schiff, similar to being late in adopting email over traditional mail because you want more evidence that email is better—the technology properties are already proven.
“I think that sounds like a personal problem for you Peter like that I I think you need more evidence and that's you being slow to recognize reality right like if you were to need the internet to prove that email is better than traditional mail you would just be late to adopting better technology”
A Van Gogh painting is scarce and not divisible or portable, and its value comes from Van Gogh's historical importance as artist, not from scarcity alone—Peter Schiff's original painting would be far more scarce but worthless because he's not Van Gogh.
“when I talk about scarcity I yes a van go painting is not going to function as money um but it has value part of the value comes from the scarcity but most of the value comes from the fact that van go painted it and Van go is a historic figure recognized as one of the greatest painters that ever existed I don't know how many van go exist you know whether there's 100 of them 200 I don't really know that the quantity right but I know this I can paint a Peter Shi original and it could be the only one I ever paint it could be far more scarce than all the van go yet I can't sell it for hardly anything doesn't matter how scarce my original painting is because who cares about a Peter ship painting right I'm not van go”
Strike and Jack Mallers could reintroduce gold as money by using their existing infrastructure, economy of scale, and AML/KYC capabilities to offer gold-based money for commerce and payment.
“but you're actually in a position that you may be able to reintroduce gold as money you might already have the infrastructure you might already have some economies of scale and have the the AML kyc to offer uh to your customers a a a gold money that they can use in Commerce instead of dollars Euros Yen uh that Merchants can use that they can price their products in that they can receive payment in”
Bitcoin's young age (12-13 years) means 25% of its history is being evaluated when someone analyzes three-year periods, making such analysis statistically weak and insufficient for trend characterization.
“Bitcoin doesn't really have a long term it's only been around what 12 13 years so you're talking about you know 25% of the history of Bitcoin uh when you're talking about three years”
Sellers of goods and services would prefer to be paid in gold as inflation picks up and they worry that fiat collapse, making gold better money to accept than paper.
“most sellers of goods and services would prefer to get paid in Gold I mean gold is a better way to get paid uh especially as inflation really starts to pick up and you start to worry that if I sell these products and I take paper what happens if you know the paper collapses and I can't even Reby my inventory because the prices have gone up so I think as inflation really becomes entrenched uh Merchants are going to look for to accept real value in exchange for whatever goods or services they have to sell”
It's impossible to argue against doomsday scenarios like 'what if the world ends tomorrow' because any asset loses value if civilization fails, making Schiff's crash predictions unfalsifiable speculation.
“my my problem with a lot of this is Peter's painting these like Doomsday scenarios I'm trying to you know no jokes no fighting here but it's impossible to argue with like Doomsday scenarios where what if the world ends tomorrow then everything that you know of and believe in”
Even if Bitcoin crashes to $10,000 (90% decline from peak), Bitcoin would still technically be true to have outperformed everything from inception, demonstrating the logical fallacy of using inception-to-present returns as a meaningful metric.
“and as I said even if in a year Bitcoin is down at 10,000 right which would be what a 90% decline from its peak right whatever that is and where most people have been wiped out in Bitcoin you'll still be able to say well over the last 18 years or 16 it's the best performing asset”
If you could take any asset that has outperformed the stock market like Tesla, which has greatly outperformed gold in the last five years, you could theoretically transport Tesla stock virtually over countries and borders, yet we don't use Tesla stock as money, so Bitcoin outperformance doesn't prove it's better money.
“well you could take any other thing that has outperformed the stock markets gold let's say Tesla Tesla has greatly outperformed the stock markets gold in the last five years it's greatly outperformed gold why don't we use Tesla as a form of money why is Tesla not a Tesla stock not a currency you know we could in theory transport Tesla stock virtually over you know over countries and borders um you know the point I'm making right it has a lot of the properties that you talked about yet we don't consider that money so the point that just because Bitcoin has outperformed everything else doesn't make it a better form of money”
Historically, gold ETF assets under management have maintained positive correlation with gold prices as price rises bring inflows and price falls bring outflows, but this correlation broke down starting in 2022 and went negative in late 2023, only recently turning positive again.
“historically at least going back to the formation of uh the gold ETFs uh the price of gold and the assets under management of the gold ETFs have have gone in a positive correlation with one another as the price of gold goes up more people want to buy and so there's [7:54] more money that's coming into these ETFs”
Gold is at an all-time record high above $2,500 per ounce and is poised to move significantly higher, reflecting the beginning of a breakdown in the global fiat currency system.
“gold at an all-time record high uh above 2500 getting ready to move quite a bit higher”
Bitcoin has averaged annual returns of around 60% over the past decade, while gold has inflation-adjusted annual returns of around 2% over the same period, making Bitcoin vastly superior as an investment.
“over the last decade Bitcoin has an average annual return of around 60% um gold has an inflation adjusted [13:08] return of annually around 2% over that same duration”
Gold has not outperformed other commodities or Bitcoin, making it a poor performing asset, and the data does not support the ideas that Peter Schiff embodies regardless of what time period you select.
“it does not act in Gold's favor it does not promote the ideas that Peter Peter embodies um not an investment data's bad for gold”
Senator Cynthia Lummis' Bitcoin strategic reserve bill proposes to establish a decentralized network of secure Bitcoin vaults operated by the US Treasury, implement a 1 million unit Bitcoin purchase program paid for by diversifying existing funds within the Federal Reserve and Treasury, and affirm self-custody rights of private Bitcoin holders.
“establish the decentralized network of secure Bitcoin vaults operated by the United States Treasury Implement a 1 million unit Bitcoin purchase program over a set period of time be paid for by diversifying existing funds within the Federal Reserve System and Treasury Department affirm self- custody rights of private Bitcoin holders and emphasize that the Strategic Bitcoin preserve shall not infringe upon individual Financial freedoms”
Retail investors have been selling gold ETFs starting in January when Bitcoin ETFs launched, likely switching from gold ETFs to Bitcoin ETFs, while institutions and foreign central banks bought the gold retail was selling.
“I thought that maybe there were a lot of people ETF investors who were making the switch they were selling uh gold ETFs and buying the Bitcoin ETFs uh but I thought that was a great contran indicator because when retail is selling uh it's generally a bullish indicator but the question is if you had all these retail investors selling their gold why' the price go up so much somebody was buying [8:56] and it was the institutions mainly foreign central banks that were buying the gold that retail investors were selling”
If Trump implements a Bitcoin strategic reserve and Bitcoin appreciation benefits the US government's fiscal position, this could influence Mallers' long-term Bitcoin outlook, but his core case rests on Bitcoin technology not government policy.
“it is a strategic Reserve in the same way that countries strategically...if Bitcoin is the hardest money of all time...the United States would want to back their deficits their future promises and it would give them a tremendous amount of credibility if they owned 5% of the future of money”
Schiff claims Bitcoin would need to crash to $100-$50 to shake his conviction that it will fail, but his broader skepticism about Bitcoin history length is a personal belief rather than a principled critique.
“if Bitcoin were to go to $100 $50 um I I think that that would likely be you know a catastrophic blow that would further set it back”
Most people who bought Bitcoin in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 did so with real money, not play money as early adopters did, so when Bitcoin crashes most modern holders will be down significantly more than early holders ever gained.
“most people who bought Bitcoin you know back then you know bought it with play money people weren't putting their retirement Savings in the Bitcoin when it first showed up uh but you have a lot of that that's happened now so a lot more money has been invested at much higher prices”
Bitcoin is fundamentally a blockchain chain letter—the same characteristics as a Ponzi scheme or chain letter—except it's on blockchain technology, which is just repackaging the same old scheme for the modern internet era.
“I call Bitcoin a blockchain letter you know because it's it's got the same characteristics of a chain letter except it's on the blockchain that's what's new about it right it's it's the same old scheme that doesn't work it's just repackaged on the internet for the modern day”
Jack proposes Bitcoin should not be worried about adoption at merchant level (Papa John's accepting it) because that's not what determines how people save and exchange value—that's up to individual decision, not merchant acceptance.
“I just violently disagree that whatever a merchant accepts at their storefront is what's defined as the best way to store save and exchange your labor uh that's just not like it's not up to Papa John's how I should exchange my hard work and store it and further exchange it for the things I need in the marketplace I don't really care what Papa John's wants to accept at their storefront that's not how I make that decision”
In a hypothetical where Bitcoin becomes actual money and prices are expressed in satoshis globally, drives out all other currencies, and people use Bitcoin for insurance policies and rent, then Peter would concede he was wrong.
“if if Bitcoin actually becomes money if I start traveling around and every place I go prices are expressed in Satoshi if people don't want my dollars or my Euros they if they want they want to sell me a dinner in a restaurant and and they they just take Bitcoin right if if Bitcoin is actually succeeding his money and driving out all the other uh inferior forms of money you know gresham's Law whatever everybody is just using Bitcoin and Bitcoin is the winner and prices are in Bitcoin if you know I can buy insurance policies and they have Bitcoin uh uh uh benefits I pay my premiums in Bitcoin I get my my benefits if rents are in Bitcoin if everything is expressed in a quantity of Satoshi then I guess I was wrong right”
If gold were able to achieve what it was designed to do (become a neutral global world reserve currency), Bitcoin adoption would slow significantly, though Bitcoin would still likely be superior technology.
“I think that you know if if gold were able to achieve what it was set out to achieve which is be the neutral Global World Reserve currency and money then Bitcoin would have a slower adoption cycle I still think it's Superior technology but what I mean by this is that I look at Bitcoin Bitcoin to me equals technology plus Fiat liquidity and so the Fiat liquidity were to slow down because for whatever reason government spending went way down and that gold was able to break out of the censorship resistance and the centralized control of Banks and governments and such and that there was a more competitive World Reserve currency I think it would slow Bitcoin adoption down”
A strategic Bitcoin reserve makes no sense because you cannot 'run out' of Bitcoin the way you run out of petroleum—Bitcoin is software that cannot be depleted, so a strategic reserve has no function.
“what do we need it for I can understand a strategic petroleum Reserve in case we run out of petroleum how are we gonna run out of Bitcoin there's no nobody needs it”
Bitcoin is the scarcest monetary asset in human history with a fixed supply of 21 million units that cannot be increased, the most portable asset that can be teleported over the internet, the most divisible asset measured in satoshis, and the only monetary asset that is censorship resistant to governments and central parties.
“for one it's the scarcest money in human history it's the only monetary asset of all time that has a fixed Supply it's the most portable asset of all time it's the only monetary asset that you can teleport over a Communications Channel like the internet it's the most divisible asset of all time it can measure an asset that's the size of a grain of sand it can also measure assets the size of sports [12:37] franchises it is infinitely divisible because is bites of data it's durable it's portable it's actually censorship resistant to governments and Central parties which gold unfortunately is not”
Stock-to-flow ratio matters for money: if you have 10 total units producing 1 per year, and you consume half the supply, you now have worse money because the total supply is down to 5 while new production continues at 1 per year, reducing the monetary properties.
“if you had a money that had 10 total units and you were producing one [32:24] unit per year so that's the stock to flow ratio the new Supply Dynamic let's just for example sake if you were to take half of that total Supply and you were to demonetize it and commercialize it and consume it that makes it a worse money because now the total money supply of that monetary good is now five still being produced at one per year”
Peter's been claiming Bitcoin collapse is coming for over a decade now but he's been consistently wrong, so people can judge whether this time he's right based on his track record.
“but the problem Peter is you've been claiming that for over a decade now and you've been consistently wrong so people can make their own judgments as to whether this time you're right”
Lawsuits against Bitcoin promoters will likely follow any major price crash, as Americans sue whenever they lose money, making Bitcoin promoters legally vulnerable.
“they may lawyer up and try to sue a lot of the uh people who were involved in the promotion of Bitcoin I I know that's coming uh you know whenever people lose a lot of money in America uh [1:22:16] the lawyers come in and that was good conclusion be no exception”
Bitcoin has been the best performing asset for the small number of people who bought it 13 years ago, but for people who bought it 1-5 years ago many other assets performed better—you must go back to inception to get the great track record.
“Bitcoin has been the best performing asset for the small number of people who bought it 13 years ago but for the people who bought it one two 3 four five years ago there are a lot of other assets that they could have bought that did much better than Bitcoin right so you have to go back to its Inception in order to get this great track record”
Bitcoin is forecast to reach between $250,000 to $1 million within the next 12-18 months based on currency debasement trends and gold's continued underperformance as world reserve currency.
“I'm on record saying I think Bitcoin hits 250,000 to a million on the show David at some point within the next 12 to 18 months”
Bitcoin is down since the end of February, contradicting Mallers' claims about strong performance and showing the momentum has shifted recently.
“Bitcoin is down since febru the end of February just not data doesn't back the claims that you're making”
Bitcoin has made three-year bear markets when priced in gold: late 2013 through 2017, late 2017 through 2020, and now from 2021 to present, each lasting about three years, but these cycles show adoption patterns rather than indicating Bitcoin is losing to gold.
“Bitcoin made a local high when priced in gold in late 2013 it entered a what Peter's calling a gold be Market all the way until 2017 where it hit smashing new highs that was a three-year gold bare Market Bitcoin was in it then made another smashing high in December of 2017 remained in what Peter describes as a gold bear market up until 2020 where it [11:34] made new smashing highs and so now we're in what Peter's describing another gold bare market for another three years”
Trump's promise to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve will likely never be implemented because politicians break campaign promises, and in any case the Bitcoin the government currently holds will be sold by the Biden-Harris administration before Trump takes office.
“I doubt that bill that Senator Luma introduced is ever going to go anywhere uh I don't think there's going to be a Bitcoin Reserve all Donald Trump promised to do was not sell the Bitcoin that the US government has and I think before he takes office whatever Bitcoin the government has are going to be sold by the Biden Harris Administration”
Bitcoin ETFs are up about 16.5% since they opened in January, but gold is up 24% in the same period, and Bitcoin has never made a new high when priced in gold—it remains 30% below its 2021 peak when measured in gold terms.
“since the opening trade they're up about you know 16 and a half% but Gold's up 24% during the same time period And if you actually look even though Bitcoin made a new uh nominal record high this year in dollars [9:28] it never made a new high in Gold the the the high for Bitcoin priced in gold was still back in 2021 and we're more than 30% below that high now”
If Bitcoin were to drop to $100-$50, it would represent a catastrophic blow to Bitcoin that would further set back adoption prospects, though Mallers stops short of saying this would necessarily take Bitcoin to zero.
“if Bitcoin were to go to $100 $50 um I I think that that would likely be you know a catastrophic blow that would further set it back”
Peter owned some Bitcoin at one point that was gifted to him—he never actually bought any—and he had maybe 30-40% of a Bitcoin; the person who created the wallet never told him the seed phrase or password, only gave him a PIN which eventually stopped working, and the Bitcoin was lost in cyberspace forever.
“no I I I owned some Bitcoin at one point that was gifted to me I never actually bought any and I didn't even have a whole Bitcoin I think I had maybe 30 or 40% of a Bitcoin yeah and uh the person who created the wallet for me and that I had an address that I gave out and then I got the gifts sure sure when he did that he never told me my seed phrase or even the password I just had the pin that's all I had and I I had this pin and then one day I woke up and the pin didn't work and I even contacted the company that owned the wallet I mean the there's nothing I could do the Bitcoin had been lost in cyberspace for years and I'll never see him again”