Peter Zeihan: Why Europe & China Won't Survive the Next Decade

India never joined the globalized order after World War II because it saw itself as non-aligned or leaning pro-Soviet, and only started integrating around 1990 for similar reasons to Mexico's late entry into global trade.

“India never joined the globalized order after World War II because it saw itself as either non-aligned or somewhat leaning pro- Soviet and it saw the United States plan for what it was a security program so it didn't really start this process until about 1990”

Japan has altered its economic structure by offshoring most industrial production to third countries with healthier demographic stories (Southeast Asia, Mexico, US South), allowing it to do design and specific component manufacturing at home while production happens elsewhere.

“they've also altered their economic structure in way I don't think China can they've offshored most of their industrial production to third countries that have healthier demographic stories so in many ways that is part of the story of the Renaissance of the American South where country companies like Toyota have basically gone into places like Kentucky and North Carolina and built massive production facilities”

California's economic model of the last 40 years has been deindustrialization and focus on services, using the capital and intellectual resources of Silicon Valley to imagine the future while simultaneously using its ports to import Chinese finished goods and distribute them throughout the US, while Silicon Valley helped build out the Chinese industrial plant.

“the California economic model the last 40 years has been it's been de-industrialized focus on Services you take the capital of the American system with the blendal of the American system to imagine the future in a place like Silicon Valley and then you use your ports to take Chinese finished goods and distribute them to the United States all the same time that Silicon Valley is helping build out the Chinese industrial plant”

Japan is unique among aging societies because unlike everyone else who ignored demographic decline, Japan has been working on it in bits and pieces since the 1980s through keeping workers longer and encouraging younger families to have children, so while still aging, they're no longer the fastest aging society in the world.

“the they're the original story of demographic Decay but unlike everyone else who's been ignoring it they've been working on it in bits and pieces since the 80s so they found ways to keep people in the workforce longer they found ways to encourage younger families to have children and so while they're still old and they're still aging they're no longer the fastest aging Society in the world”

At least 15 countries are aging faster than Japan, ranging from Spain, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Thailand, Taiwan, China, and Korea.

“there's 15 countries that are aging faster ranging from Spain to Germany to Italy to Belgium to Thailand to Taiwan China of course and Korea”

If you're young and can work remotely, it's not easy to get into Australia anymore because the government just reduced inward migration visa approvals by 80%; for the settler states (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, etc.), the smart move would be to have the doors as open as possible with rational immigration systems because labor is in short supply and skilled labor is on the move.

“the smart thing on the part of the settler States at the moment would be to have the doors as open as possible uh with an admitting immigration system because labor is in short supply and skilled labor is on the move”

Russia has been sidelined in the globalized system but plays the role of antagonist; the logic of the Ukraine war is that Russia is trying to reach a more defensible external perimeter similar to the Soviet period, reducing its open borders from 4,000 miles to about 500 miles to make it more manageable for a country with a falling population.

“the whole logic of the Ukraine war is that the Russians are trying to reach a more defensible external perimeter something much more similar to what they had in Soviet period right now they've got about 4,000 miles of open terrain on their borders if they can get to the Vista and the danu and the Baltic they shrink that 4,000 to about 500 miles and that's a lot more manageable for a country with a falling population”

Germany's demographic situation is awful, its industry was designed for a different world, it's having an energy crisis shutting down its entire chemical sector, and Zeihan sees no path for Germany to work unless someone pays them to exist—making Germany 'the new Greece'.

“the German demographic is awful their industry was designed for a different world they're having an energy crisis was shutting down their entire chemical sector which is feing through through a manufacturing system I don't see how that works unless someone pays them to exist Germany is the new Greece”

Turkey is the only country among Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel that has the industrial plant, political unity, and infrastructure to become a new regional superpower.

“there's one country out of those four that matters and that's turkey it's got the industrial plant it's got the political Unity it's got the infrastructure in place if there is going to be a new superpower of the region it will not be Iran it will not be Saudi Arabia they are not intellectually capable that's not a racial thing I'm just saying they don't have the workforce necessary to even try much less the infrastructure”

India needs to massively expand its industrial plant to prepare for a post-China world, but every country that borders India hates India and India hates them, leaving India to industrialize alone unlike the US which can rely on Korea, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and hopefully the UK.

“the Indians need to do the same thing that we need to do in North America they need to grossly EXP expand their industrial plant to prepare for a post China world but everyone who borders India hates India and India hates them there are no Partners so Americans can rely on Korea and Japan Mexico Canada hopefully the United Kingdom if they can figure out what brexit means and there's a constellation of powers that can work together to build a regional future India is going to do it on on its own it's an Indian story”

The US has gone through eight elections in a row choosing more economically nationalist candidates, including the transition from Trump to Biden, indicating structural loss of interest in maintaining the globalized system.

“we've now had eight elections in a row where we've gone with the more economic Ally nationalist candidate and that includes the transition from Trump to Biden”

The US Navy has been stretched to the breaking point just patrolling the Red Sea to stop missile attacks from the Houthis, which Zeihan describes as arguably the world's least competent terror group, so if an actual country got involved, the system would break.

“the US Navy has been stretched to the breaking point just to patrol the Red Sea just to stop missile attacks for what is arguably the world's least competent terror group can you imagine if an actual country got involved”

Building the North American industrial plant will look different from 1950s factories—it will incorporate extensive automation and robotics, and will rely on Mexico as a key partner (especially Central Mexico for labor-intensive work) alongside new manufacturing techniques like 3D printing in Amazon warehouses; power grid expansion of 50% is necessary because manufacturing processes (stamping, welding) are electricity-intensive.

“what do we build and how does it use humans because you look at the new Tesla factories they're just all robots exactly it's going to look different it's not your 1950s Factory anymore it's all going to look different especially the Stu 30 and 40 years ago and remember we don't have to do this by ourselves Mexico is right there columb we already have a free trade deal with we're going to find new ways to put things together”

Xi has purged the Russian system of anyone not in his circle, so all of them see the world through the same lens; a change in Russian leadership would not change the strategic logic unless Russian forces suffered a catastrophic public humiliation defeat (like Crimean War or World War One), which would trigger political revolution and end unified Russia.

“Putin has so purged the system of anyone who's not in this circle that everybody basically sees the world through the same lens so we might have some differences on the margin but I don't think a new leader in Russia would make a difference what what would theoretically make a difference is if Russian forces such suffered a catastrophic public humiliating defeat like they did in the Crimean War like they did in World War War one that would trigger a political revolution which would tear the system down and then that's the end of unified Russia”

Renewable energy supply chains are extremely complex (second only to semiconductors) and extremely vulnerable to any changes in the economic order, so their continued scaling depends on system stability.

“the renewable story is the second most complex manufacturing supply chain we have ever had so you know from from your lips to God's years but those things are very vulnerable to any changes in the economic order”

A North American-centric regional system has most of the pieces already in place (energy, food, finance, youth, and demand) and only needs to build out manufacturing capacity over a multi-trillion-dollar timeframe.

“a North American Centric system that attaches to a few pieces elsewhere that does very well for itself... the energy is there the food is there the finance there most importantly the youth and the demand is there so you can have a North American Centric system that attaches to a few pieces elsewhere that does very well for itself”

Every economic sector will have to be restructured to wrap itself around new geopolitics, transforming from a globalized system to a series of regional systems that might have some connections but for the most part will trade within their own network.

“every economic sector is going to have to be restructured to wrap itself around the new geopolitics so instead of having a globalized system we're going to have a series of regional systems that might have some connections among them but for the most part it going be trading with their in their own network”

China's demographic data collection has been deliberately dismantled by Xi as part of forming his Cult of Personality—the Chinese bureaucracy no longer collects data they think their boss will find inconvenient, not that they collect and hide it but they don't collect it at all, with no archive anywhere, across metrics including youth unemployment, death data, college dissertations, and the bond market.

“the Chinese bureaucracy which has been completely gutted by XI as part of his the formation of his Cult of Personality they just stop collecting any any data that they think their boss is going to find inconvenient it's not that they collect it they don't publish it there's no archive anywhere they just don't collect it anymore whether it's youth unemployment death data College dissertations the bond market it just doesn't exist anymore”

The US hasn't had real industrial policy since the 1940s, so with the exception of Biden, no one alive today has any memory of it, and the idea that the US will get industrial policy right within 2-3 years is unrealistic.

“we've had in the country is that we haven't really had an industrial policy since the 40s and so with the exception of Joe Biden there is no one alive today who has any memory of it uh and we're new at it and the idea that we're going to get it right within two or three years I'm kind of like yeah right”

The Chinese birth rate has dropped by 60% in the last 6 years, which has never happened before, not even during the Black Death.

“the Chinese are in a demographic freefall they're now admitting that their birth rate dropped by 60% in the last 6 years which has never happened not even in the black death”

India is now aging very quickly despite its average age of 26, and its birth rate has dropped by 2/3 over the last 30 years; while it does have a demographic dividend that is real and persistent, it is not permanent and will not prevent a population crunch within 30 years if current trends continue.

“I wouldn't say it's the anti antithesis of the world anymore it is Asing very very quickly its birth rate has drown by 2/3 over the last 30 years uh now if it keeps going at this rate it's not going to have a population crunch within 30 years it's 0 there's the dividend is real and it's persistent but it's not permanent”

Countries blocking Chinese cars from their markets because of product dumping include pretty much every country in the world including Russia, with Britain being the one European exception because it doesn't have a car industry.

“pretty much every country in the world including the Russians now uh are basically blocking Chinese cars from access to their markets the one exception is the one European country that doesn't have a car industry Britain which is kind of hilarious when you think about it”

High-end semiconductor chip production cannot happen at the speed required for rapid AI deployment; getting a proper AI chip design to production requires at least 4-5 years (design finished end of next year, first production run in two years, enough for first server farm in another 2-3 years puts us at 2029-2030), and we are already building 100,000 server plants with current GPUs which have vulnerable supply chains.

“we are unlikely to have our first hard copy of it before the end of next year and as soon that works then it'll be another two years before we have our first production run in the Fab and assuming that works it'll be another two to three years before we have enough to build our first server F out of these things so you're already talking 2029 2030”

The Eastern Mediterranean (Turkey, France) and Western Europe will form demographically stable advanced regional systems, with Turkey as the central node for its immediate neighborhood.

“we'll probably see something somewhat similar in the Eastern Mediterranean and in Western Europe with turkey and France demographically stable Advanced countries being their own Central nodes for their own immediate neighborhood”

Trades, specifically welding and electricians, will be the single most in-demand jobs for the next 5-10 years, and with 1-2 years of experience you can earn six figures very easily.

“trades specifically welding and electricians those are going to be the single most in demand jobs for the next 5 to 10 years and basically we're already in a situation where about one or two years of experience you can be elting six figures very very easily”

If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, they will not stop there—they will come for Romania, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, leading to either a direct NATO-Russia conflict or a conflict between a Scandinavian-Central European bloc and Russia if NATO is defunct.

“so if the Russians do succeed in Ukraine they will be coming for Romania and Poland and Estonia laia and Lithuania and we will get a straightup fight between either NATO and Russia if NATO is still around or the Scandinavian Central American Central European block and Russia”

The European Union in its current form is at an end, specifically when the Germans realize they will be a net giver to EU funds (not a net receiver), which will happen within years; this doesn't mean there can't be some sort of European Association in the future, but the economic structure is fundamentally broken.

“there's four Futures I mean keep in mind as soon as the Europeans realize that the Germans are going to be a net benefici incen of a net Giver to EU funds when when do you think that happens what time hor within years years right yeah yeah so it's the the EU and its current form is at the ad that doesn't mean there can't be some sort of European Association in the future I think there will but economically there's four different stories”

Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, and Sweden are also hard currencies with similar political structures to the US and are beneficiaries of capital flows, but only the US is the global store of value.

“Australia Taiwan uh New Zealand Sweden these are also hard currencies that have a very similar political structure governing them they're all being net beneficiaries but only one of them is the global store Val”

The previous Trump administration was very pro-tariffs but never used the income from tariffs to do anything constructive, so it just messed up economic activity.

“Team Trump was very Pro tariffs but then never used the income from the tariffs to do anything constructive so all that did was [ __ ] uh economic activity here”

The US will likely continue to absorb the world's capital at an accelerating pace because there is really no other option, resulting in probably a multi-decade US dollar run and a stronger dollar.

“there's really no other option and that's a much stronger dollar as well I guess probably we're probably looking at the beginning of a multi-decade US dollar run”

Australia will probably replicate its 30-year success story of avoiding recessions by working with Southeast Asia rather than China, with healthier growth profiles and longer runway due to better demographics, though a painful housing market adjustment (10% headline GDP hit) will likely occur and be necessary.

“Australia is probably going to replicate its success of the last 30 years just working with C with southeast Asia rather than China uh they're not as debt driven it's a much healthier growth profile and honestly has a lot longer to run because the demographics are better so it might not be the break break net growth they've seen since the 80s but it's still going to be a really good story there's probably needs to be an adjustment but here and there we probably do need to have that recession and oh my God their housing markets a nightmare and uh the sooner that is adjusted the better but that is going to knock easily 10% off of headline GDP when it happens and that'll be rough but on the other side of this it's a pretty good story”

The demographic decline means demand and capital go away, so every economic model designed by humans (fascism, communism, socialism, capitalism) is about distribution of goods and balance between supply, demand, labor, and capital—all based on assumptions that no longer hold.

“we're on the verge of every economic model we have ever designed as a species no longer working I mean basically fascism communism socialism capitalism they're all about distribution of goods and the balance between supply and demand and labor and capital I mean they all differ on how it should be done but that's the core format the demographic decline means demand goes away in capital go away so we need to admit something new”

Raoul Pal's thesis is that artificial intelligence and robotics represent an infinite supply of human labor in both knowledge and physical forms, arriving at exactly the right time to offset population collapse and the aging crisis—this technology is happening fast and drives urgency for faster AI/robot development because aging populations increase the desperate need for workers.

“the answer to depopulation Is I say it it is AI and robots you're creating infinite humans in every form from infinite knowledge to infinite physical labor and it's happening fast and it feels to me that this is the solution that is on the table and the Aging population and the falling population growth essentially drives the urgency of this faster and faster that we create a bunch of outcomes we don't even know AGI being one of them because the desperate need for workers”

In the short term, trade warfare (product dumping) is the dominant mode of engagement between deglobalizing regions, not kinetic conflict, because countries facing demographic collapse cannot consume what they produce and must dump products somewhere.

“in the short term def definitely trade Warfare uh one of the problems you have when you face demographic collapse um is that you can no longer consume what you produce that is certainly the situation the Chinese and the Germans are in today uh both of those countries have about the same number of people over age 50 as under uh and so product dumping is the only way to work”

New economic models are usually introduced when there is geopolitical pressure, so countries under pressure (Germany, Korea, China) will be forced to invent new models, while countries with better demographics (Southeast Asia, North America, Argentina) can still use old models to drive growth and observe what the pressured countries do—hopefully learning from their mistakes.

“if you're in Southeast Asia or North America or Argentina where the demographic picture is better and you can still use the old models to underpin some very strong growth this isn't your problem yet we're going to be able to look at the Germany of the world the koreas of the world maybe the China of the world and see what they do and hopefully learn a few things even if it's just from their mistakes”

Indians will industrialize inefficiently and take longer than other regions because of their geographic isolation, but this is not new—India has looked this way for 1500 years and will continue to do it its own way, not as part of a new global order.

“it'll be inefficient it'll take longer it'll be dirty but if you think that Indie is about to turn the page no it's looked like this for 1500 years”

Argentina will likely do better in a world where transport is difficult, finance is hard to come by, and rule of law breaks down, because the Argentines are already accustomed to these conditions on an average Tuesday.

“just keep in mind that in the world we're moving into where transports more difficult and finance is hard to come by and rule of law breaks down you know the argentines just call that an average Tuesday they know how to work in that world”

Despite being wasteful and stupid in many respects, the Inflation Reduction Act was worth supporting because it's building industrial plant domestically, and even if built in the wrong place or wrong sector, it can be retooled later; the priority is speed because the window while China is still manufacturing is limited.

“I look at things like the IRA which as an economist I'm like oh my God there's so much about this that is so wasteful and so stupid but I was in favor of it anyway because it's building industrial plant here now and even if we build the wrong thing in the wrong place we can always retool it the important thing is that it's built as soon as possible because we have a limited window that the ch are still with us and we need as much of that industrial plant as possible to help us build out ours”

If you're in Germany, you probably want to get a visa to the United States; if you can't go there, Canada seems to be a popular option, though immigration policies may close down; the last time the world went through evolution of economic orders and demographic/geopolitical degradation was the 1840s when a fifth of the German population (specifically the skilled fifth) emigrated.

“if you're in Germany you probably want to get a visa to go where I'd come to the United States personally but there's other options Canada seems to be really popular”

Spanish language and bilingualism between North America and Mexico is critical infrastructure; the biggest weakness in the North American industrial buildout story is not electricity but technical bilingualism, and there are many engineers in Mexico who don't speak English and many in the US who don't speak Spanish.

“Spanish the interface between North America is amazing and the interspace specifically between Texas and Northern Mexico is absolutely epic the biggest weakness in the North American story right now is a technology it's not electricity it's technical bilingualism we have a lot of engineer in Mexico who don't speak English and a lot of engineers in the United States that don't speak Spanish if we can bridge that then you can start talking about really taking full advantage of what we have on of the border”

Even if AI and automation are wildly successful on the production side of the equation, they do not solve the consumption side—the number of wealthy people aged 20 to 45 (the people who consume everything in the world) is now a permanently declining population, and increasing production without growing this demographic cannot address the fundamental mismatch.

“let's say we're wildly successful all of this okay maybe that solves the proection side of the equation it doesn't solve the consumption side and the number of wealthy people aged 20 to 45 the people who consume everything in the world that is a population that is now impermanent de coin and increasing production doesn't solve that issue at all”

Raoul Pal is more optimistic than Zeihan by 2030, believing technology will be kicking in and the global money printer will paper over cracks in the system without something major going wrong, whereas Zeihan is more concerned about timing and implementation challenges

“from every angle there seems no optimism give me the optimistic case we're not looking at civilizational collapse here yeah and my view is actually the opposite but even though I agree with all of your major points about the de globalization and the population collapse I'm more optimistic about the role of technology in a short enough time period not today not this year not next year but by 2030 that we have a lot of this kicking in and in the interim we just use the global money printer to paper over the cracks in the system and hope that holds together without something major going wrong”

Raoul Pal worries less about the US future because it leans into technology, but is more concerned about Europe because it is actively rejecting technology and only adopting renewable energy at scale—but most of Europe isn't sunny or windy, so this strategy has limited applicability.

“I worry less about the US for many of those reasons and because it does lean into technology I'm more worried about Europe sure because it's actively rejecting technology the only technology it's adopting at scale is reable energy which is great because over time it lowers the cost of electricity if you're in a place that's sunny or windy which most of Europe isn't”

The US President (whoever wins the 2024/2025 election) will have to decide by fiat where limited high-end chips get applied—genome cracking for agriculture, worker productivity for manufacturing, capital market efficiency, or national defense—and we probably only have enough chips to try one of them, much less all four.

“I'd actually argue that the most consequential outcome of this presidential election is whoever wins is going to be the one who's going to have to decide by Fiat where these chips get applied do we use it to crack the genome so we save Global agriculture from collapse save a billion people from starving do we use it for worker productivity so that the manufacturing labor force could be stretched further do we use it in the Capital Market so we get more efficient at apply in what few investment dollars we have left or do we use it for National Defense and cryptography I mean those are all good good choices we're probably only going to have enough chips to try one of them much less all four”

Countries not in one of the major regional clusters (North America, Southeast Asia, Western Europe/Mediterranean) must either induce one of the clusters to include them or find a way to strike out on their own; Argentina is the only country Zeihan sees as potentially capable of striking out independently.

“if you're not in one of those clusters uh you've got to figure out if you can a induce one of those clusters to include you or B if you have any hope of striking out on your own and the only country that I can see right now that might be able to strike out on his own is Argentina because it's got the population structure the food production the energy production the mineral production”

Spain is a special case where it undertook a Reconquista opening roles to former colonies and brought in a couple million migrants, which was probably the biggest deliberate intake of migrants in Europe in modern history, and because these people were Iberian-descended did not have the cultural problems other immigration waves created

“Spain is a special case but not because of Central or Southeast Europe because they did a Reconquista uh where they opened up the roles to former colonies they brought in a couple million people that way that was I would argue the biggest deliberate intake of migrants in Europe in modern history uh and because these people were all Iberian descended didn't have quite the cultural problems that some of these other waves have had”

Southeast Asia is the big wildcard that could either merge with North America or go its own way; both are viable because Chinese industrial pieces are already dropping and Southeast Asians are picking them up, and Australia and New Zealand are nearby for raw inputs and financial assistance.

“the big wild card in from my point of view is southeast Asia uh it's logical that it would partner up with North America but it doesn't necessarily have to because a lot of the pieces of the Chinese are already dropping the southeast Asians are picking up just fine and Australia and New Zealand are right there for a lot of the raw inputs and even some Financial assist distance so we could either see that Network merge with North America or go its own way both of those are viable options”

Turkey will likely incorporate parts of the Middle East it's interested in (possibly including Israel), absorb the Eastern Balkans, and possibly Iraq, depending on Sunni willingness to see Turkish control; Iran and Saudi Arabia will likely be on the edge of this network because Turkey can be a security guarantor for the Gulf without bordering it, but only if Turkey takes over Iraq first, which the Sunnis don't want.

“I can see the Turks um picking the parts of the Middle East they're interested in maybe Israel part of that so that's a political question for them to work out uh as the Europeans have problems I think that the west or excuse me the Eastern Balkans are a very likely addition to a Turkish Circle uh and based on what happens with Saudi Arabia and Iran you know maybe Iraq isn't in play as well but that's their network uh and I really doubt Iran and Saudi Arabia are going to be with in it they're probably going to be just on the other side of the edge”

China probably needs to destroy between one-third and one-half of its industrial capacity to address deflation, which is a system event.

“in the case of china they probably need to destroy somewhere between 1/3 and one a half of their industrial capacity to take care of the deflation issue that's that's a system em event”

The Biden approach of identifying specific subsectors to provide technological fences around them to block tech transfer may be more productive than Trump's tariff approach, but unless there's incentive to build out industrial capacity on the other side, it's almost as pointless.

“you can go with the Biden approach was which was to identify specific Subs sectors to like really dig in and provide techn technological fences around them uh to block Tech transfer which may be more productive but again unless you provide some sort of incentive to build out the industrial on the other side is almost as pointless as what team Trump was doing”

China's birth rate revisions suggest that India passed China as the world's most populous nation about 16-17 years ago, not 2 years ago as commonly reported, meaning data collection delays have obscured the magnitude of China's relative decline

“they're on the verge of admitting that they didn't India didn't pass them in terms of the world's most populist station two years ago it was probably 16 or 17 years ago”

Xi and Newsom have things to talk about because what they've been working on for the last generation (California's role in Chinese industrial development and distributing Chinese goods to the US) is now stopping, and they're trying to see what they can salvage.

“what they've basically been working on for the last generation is now stoping and they're trying to see what they can salvage”

For a mid-30s, late-30s average Millennial in North America, the future is not bad; doubling the industrial plant is a great story, creating investment opportunities in productive capacity where electricity meets industry.

“let's assume they're in their mid-30s late 30s they're average Millennial what do they do in this environment for their future sure because it sounds like their Future's pretty [ __ ] no no it's great we need to double the industrial plant that's a great story”

International capital flight to the US is going to be immense and is probably around $2 trillion per year, most of which is going into residential real estate and T-bills; if the US can find a better way to capture and apply that capital to industrial buildout, everyone will be better off.

“the international noise is going to be immense and as systems falter the capital flight that's coming to the United States is going to be absolutely gargant it's probably are around $2 trillion us a year most of that is going into residential real estate and T bills if we can find a better way to capture that and apply that to the buildout problems we're going to have we're all going to be better off”

The magic formula for GDP global trend is driven by three components: population growth, productivity growth, and debt growth (where debt growth is really just servicing of previous debts), but population growth is collapsing across the entire Western World plus Southeast Asia, and is only still positive in the Middle East and Africa where birth rates are falling fastest except for China.

“I call it the magic formula for GDP Global GDP Trend rate of GDP is driven by population growth productivity growth and debt growth debt growth equation finished and that's really just servicing of previous debts Now population growth is collapsing across the entire Western World Plus southeast Asia”

California Governor Gavin Newsom's visit to China to meet Xi Jinping (not attending the UN or DC) signals that Newsom is acting as a messenger and Xi understands this, because California's economy is roughly the size of France or the UK, and California operates as a quasi-independent geopolitical actor.

“keep in mind that he's the governor of a state that has an economy that's roughly the same size as France or the UK so the idea that he can have his own little quas foreign policy fits in perfectly”

The period from now until 2030-2035 is when the [ __ ] hits the fan as demographic majority-flips occur; between 2035-2040, assuming that is when AI can be applied at scale, the countries that figured out a way through deglobalization will be well-positioned.

“when does it finish demographically the majority of the countries that matter will be flipped over the side within 10 years so it's between now and call it2 between now and 20 2035 is when the [ __ ] lit the fan we figured out a way through it for the countries are going to do well uh by 2040 much a long way it is that's a long way for some [ __ ] time which is probably probably uh when we will finally be able to apply a i scale”