Gold Won't Save You From Historic Market Bubble Bursting: Henrik Zeberg
What this covers
Henrik Zeberg hates to break it to gold bugs and sound money advocates, but he doesn't see gold or silver holding up in what he believes will be one of the biggest market crashes in human history, where almost no asset will be spared. Henrik does see gold, silver, and commodities across the board, entering into a supercycle phase in the aftermath of the crash, and he discusses which metals he thinks will provide maximum gains once the dust has settled.
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00:00 Introduction 00:40 Final Phase of Blow-Off Top 06:04 Which Assets Will Survive the Crash? 07:23 I Would Not Be Holding Gold Now 11:54 Outlook on Silver 14:34 Do Low Oil Prices Herald a Recession? 16:34 When is it Time to Buy Commodities? 19:58 Where Should We Look For Yield? 21:33 Collapse of the German Government 23:20 State of the European Economy 26:47 Countries That Could Weather the Storm 30:01 Thoughts on Bitcoin
#gold #marketcrash #commodities
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Henrik Zberg argues that markets are in a final blowoff top phase across equities, crypto, and commodities that will crash sharply in 2025, followed by a deflationary bust where the US dollar rallies to 120 DXY, making dollar, US bonds, and German bonds the only safe assets during the crash—before a subsequent stagflationary environment creates exceptional opportunities in gold, commodities, and strategic entry points.
- Technical structures (Fibonacci extensions, RSI divergences) point to S&P targets of 6,300–6,400 and Bitcoin of 115,000–120,000, after which sharp reversals will occur, with first support levels representing ~50% declines
- Deflationary phase will drive demand for US dollars as debt restructuring accelerates; this will suppress gold, silver, oil, and crypto despite recent all-time highs, because asset prices reflect sentiment bubbles disconnected from underlying economic fundamentals
- Once the Fed stimulates aggressively (likely late 2025), the environment shifts to stagflation, creating the best entry points for commodities and precious metals at depressed prices, particularly gold miners which could rally 100–200x in the subsequent recovery
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The eurozone's founding fathers, including Jacques Delors, were aware that the single currency would create structural debt problems and asymmetric crises down the road, but political agenda overrode prudential concerns
“this is a problem that the the founding fathers of the Euro actually uh knew of Shak de la and so the the these uh founding fathers they actually knew that there would be these kind of problems down the road but the political agenda of all of this was so much more important that they just pushed it through nevertheless”
Falling oil prices are a classic signal of an incoming recession, as they reflect falling demand caused by consumer constrain from high interest rates, which dampens consumption and economic growth
“every since everybody was talking about this infl going to come...we saw inflation topping out we saw oil started to roll over...the demand for oil is is falling it's dropping right now why because the consumer around the world is feeling the pain of rates being so high interest rates being so high which is then causing a um a kind of a damper or putting a pressure on the on the consumption ability to consume and that is why we see a less demand in the world right now that's why also the economy will roll into a recession”
Gold has been abnormally outperforming other precious metals—it is up only 1.6x from 2014-2015 lows, while silver is down 40-50%, platinum is down 40-43%, and gold miners are down 43%, indicating gold has been artificially bid up by sentiment rather than fundamentals
“gold has been moving up quite strongly um but it's still up let's say 1 Point um six times from the bottom we saw back in was a 2014 or something...if you look at it from Silver from 2011 it's down like 50 40 40% I think if you look at Platinum somewhat the same 40 43% if you look at the gold miners I think it's 48 for platum if you look at the miners they're down 43% so why is it gold is up and everything around gold is uh down”
Crypto and blockchain technologies are in a speculative bubble similar to the dot-com bubble, railroads in the 1800s, and early automobile development, where speculation follows new technology adoption and creates massive valuations without fundamental justification.
“every time you've seen in history of man that you've had a new technology coming out here blockchain at allot times it was the cars in early 1900 it was the railways in the in the mid1 1800s 18 1800 sorry not 1980s 1800s um you actually saw that there was a speculation around that and we saw it also with the do com problem bubble it is the same all the time we think oh now a new technology come in comes in and we do not really know how to do with it and then just a lot of money start to focus on it and good stories come out everywhere”
The US will have to 'pay the bill for all the free lunches we have taken since 2008' as the largest bubble ever created through money printing is realized to have created illusory wealth that will crash when deflation unfolds.
“we're going to see is the us paying the bill for all the free lunches we have taken since 2008 so we thought printing money was a free launch now we created the largest bubble ever and we gone to realize that you cannot Sprint wealth you can create something that is felt by like wealth for a certain amount of time but eventually it's going to come to crashing down”
The crash beginning in 2025 will be deflationary in nature, driven by falling demand as high interest rates suppress consumer consumption and economic activity globally, causing oil, gold, and other commodity prices to collapse.
“the consumer around the world is feeling the pain of rates being so high interest rates being so high which is then causing a um a kind of a damper or putting a pressure on the on the consumption ability to consume and that is why we see a less demand in the world right now that's why also the economy will roll into a recession”
Holding 100% cash may not be optimal; some positions in T-bills and short-term treasuries paying 5% can maintain capital while generating yield, but capital preservation should be prioritized over yield generation when markets drop by 25% or more.
“sometime it's good you know 0% is good with the market drops by 25% and this is where people say I need yield I need yield all the time well yes but sometimes it's the preservation of capital which is should be in focus when everything else drops”
US government bonds and German government bonds are excellent defensive positions during the deflationary bust because yields will decline sharply, causing bond prices to rally as inflation collapses.
“because what happens to to everything is the inflation comes down then the rat will come down yields will come down and that's where bonds go up so that's what you buy and you buy it into a a situ into a into a u an economy where where the finances are in in in order so to speak”
The European economy is not facing existential collapse as some fear, but German bonds will still be a safe haven because Germany's public finances are solid and it will stand strong even if other Eurozone countries struggle.
“the Germans are not is will be will be an an economy which uh will Thrive I'm sure of the next many many years but it's a and it's a safe haven so to speak in terms of it's not going to default on its debt”
The founding fathers of the Euro (including Jacques Delors) knew that structural problems like asymmetric crises would emerge, but prioritized the political agenda of European integration over these economic concerns.
“the founding fathers of the Euro actually uh knew of Shak de la and so the the these uh founding fathers they actually knew that there would be these kind of problems down the road but the political agenda of all of this was so much more important that they just pushed it through nevertheless”
Waiting for sentiment to reach absolute bottom (when analysts declare 'gold has lost its mojo' and 'oil is an obsolete energy source') is a tactical advantage for value investors, because contrarian positioning at peak pessimism offers the best risk-reward.
“you'll probably be in a moment there where everybody will be talking about saying okay gold lost its uh it's Mojo it's h it's not never going to come up again and you know uh things like that and oral is to stay low or whatever they will say oil is just you know an oldfashioned kind of energy source whatever all these things is what people need to say well okay when we start to hear that that's the kind of chitchat we want in the in the street because then probably you get some good deals”
Short-term Treasury bills and short-term bonds have provided exceptional returns at 5% in recent years but offer limited value going forward, and preservation of capital becomes more important than yield during deflationary phases
“sometime it's good you know 0% is good with the market drops by 25% and this is where people say I need yield I need yield all the time well yes but sometimes it's the preservation of capital which is should be in focus when everything else drops”
The blowoff phase will feature a notable rotation from large-cap stocks into cryptocurrency and altcoins, including meme coins, which are currently spiking but will eventually crash alongside the broader market
“we start to see the rotation from some of the large caps into into the uh into crypto into Bitcoin also and we have seen this after the election where we saw the the start of this blowoff move...the meme coins have already been been doing quite of a spike”
In deflationary crises, gold performs poorly because the US dollar becomes the dominant safe haven as debt must be repaid and restructured; during the 2008 crisis, gold declined 34% and silver declined 60% during the deflationary phase, and similar declines should be expected now
“when you see a deflationary bust you have the greatest bubble in the world in all asset classes...when you're going to see a deflationary in development what will then be needed dollar will be needed US dollars because there will be a lot of debt that will be imployed there will be a lot of you know restructuring and so on...In 2008 we saw it for six months we saw gold de declining by 34% we saw silver declining by 60%”
The eurozone's structural debt problem has not been solved since 2008-2012, and low yields have masked the issue; if yields rise significantly and create asymmetric crisis conditions (with Germany seeing yields fall while southern Europe sees yields spike due to default risk), the eurozone could break apart
“what I say about the the states of the the strug the situation in the Euro zone is still the same that we had in the financial crisis and this is where nobody has understood that nothing got solved in 2008 or in 2012...now for now it's not a problem but if yields are going to come up a lot and we're going to see these asymmetric crisis that we can see where Germany potentially could see yields declining and and you could see because of default risk in sit in places like in GRE in Greece and and elsewhere in Europe you will have an asymmetric uh problem situation in the in the Euro Zone again and I think that can become quite severe so a breakup of the of the Euros zone is not out of the question”
Gold's all-time highs should be viewed as a 'correction' rather than a final top because gold is still only 1.6x from the 2011-2015 lows, whereas historically in deflationary rallies (1978-1980) gold moved 5x in 2 years.
“I actually think you're going to see a rather strong decline in gold to the very reasons that I just said talked about here I think you're going to see that first reason...if you looked at this deflationary period in 1978 to to 1980 uh you would actually see how glal was up five times in two years time gold has been struggling to go 160% in what is for eight years”
Holding 100% cash during the deflationary crash phase is defensible, but more importantly investors should focus on capital preservation and not chase yield, as preservation is superior to yield when risk assets decline 25% or more.
“sometime it's good you know 0% is good with the market drops by 25% and this is where people say I need yield I need yield all the time well yes but sometimes it's the preservation of capital which is should be in focus when everything else drops”
The Eurozone has an unresolved structural problem from the 2008 crisis: debt in southern European countries is much higher now than in 2012, and if yields rise sharply, an asymmetric crisis could emerge where northern countries (Germany) see falling yields while southern countries (Greece, Italy) see sharply rising yields due to default risk.
“what we did to the to in the Greece uh Greek situation was that we uh we gave them some better rates some better payment terms and everything was fine the problem is now that the debt is now much much higher than it was 2012 where debt was a problem”
After the Fed stimulates in response to the deflationary bust, a stagflationary environment will emerge where unemployment stays high while inflation begins to rise again, creating exceptional opportunities for commodities and gold miners.
“I think they can on um they can set in motion a a stagflationary kind of environment so we will see a deflation first and then in stationary Devon environment developing which means that you will see unemployment staying uh stubbornly high and you will see inflation starting to move up again”
Corporate bonds should be avoided into a deflationary crisis because they will not perform well and carry default risk, unlike government bonds which have negligible default risk.
“I will find it difficult to say certain corporate bonds will be interesting I don't think they will into a crisis”
Bitcoin will crash significantly (not perform well) during the dollar strength phase when the dollar reaches 120 DXY, despite the narrative that it is uncorrelated to traditional finance.
“when people are going to see the do the dollar going to 120 I don't think a lot of the crypto crypto will do fantastically well and I don't think Bitcoin will do fantastically well there either actually on the contrary I think they will crash”
After the initial deflationary crash, the Federal Reserve will be forced to implement aggressive stimulus to prevent systemic collapse, likely in 2025, which will trigger a stagflationary environment with simultaneous high unemployment and rising inflation
“at some point the FED is obviously going to come out especially if you see the bus that I'm talking about the FED is going to come out with their guns blazing and I think probably that could be the uh the point where you'll see that that uh due to what they that they set in motion here with their you know stimulus and whatever I think they can on um they can set in motion a a stagflationary kind of environment so we will see a deflation first and then in stationary Devon environment developing which means that you will see unemployment staying uh stubbornly high and you will see inflation starting to move up again”
The commodity cycle will be 'absolutely fantastic' beginning in late 2025 and extending into early 2026 and beyond, with explosive rallies as the stagflationary stimulus environment drives commodity prices upward
“I think the Commodities cycle is going to be absolutely fantastic going into late 25 and early 26 and even on beyond that”
Central banks and governments will likely not tolerate Bitcoin and decentralized cryptocurrencies persisting during a monetary reset, as they will want to develop their own digital currencies and prevent alternative monetary systems from competing
“when the fed and the rest of the world needs to get sound money back in again they will not just allow thousands of cryptos are circulating out there could they allow Bitcoin sure maybe let's see and this is the point in time where we'll have to say whether Bitcoin will be you know one of the um you know one of the winners here at that point or it could be one of the real casualties because if we see that the central banks of the world starts to develop their own digital occurrences and they have to create a new monetary reset where you kind of Base it on that I cannot see how they will say but it's fine if you put your money in Bitcoin”
Inflation is 'about to fall over a cliff' alongside oil prices, contradicting market narratives that inflation remains a structural problem.
“I'm still in in wondering why with the fed and people are talking about inflation as a problem here I think inflation is about to fall over a cliff together with oil”
The Federal Reserve's massive post-2008 stimulus and quantitative easing created the appearance of wealth for an extended period but ultimately created what will be revealed as a unsustainable bubble built on printed money, with the US now 'paying the bill for free lunches' since 2008
“we thought printing money was a free launch now we created the largest bubble ever and we gone to realize that you cannot Sprint wealth you can create something that is felt by like wealth for a certain amount of time but eventually it's going to come to crashing down and I think that is part of what we're going to see...we're going to see is the us paying the bill for all the free lunches we have taken since 2008”
Bitcoin and crypto represent the textbook definition of a technological bubble, similar to the railroad bubble of the 1800s, the auto bubble of the early 1900s, and the dot-com bubble, where speculation floods a new technology before fundamentals catch up.
“every time you've seen in history of man that you've had a new technology coming out here blockchain at allot times it was the cars in early 1900 it was the railways in the in the mid1 1880s sorry 1800s 18 1800 sorry not 1980s 1800s um you actually saw that there was a speculation around that and we saw it also with the do com problem bubble it is the same all the time”
Corporate bonds and emerging market debt are risky during a deflationary crisis and should be avoided in favor of high-quality government bonds from creditworthy nations.
“I will find it difficult to say certain corporate bonds will be interesting I don't think they will into a crisis”
The S&P 500 will reach 6,300 to 6,400 before entering a crash phase that will retrace to October 2022 lows around 3,600-3,700, representing a 50-55% decline from the prospective top
“I have a target of around 6,300 maybe all the way to 6,400...the first stop on the way for the S&P will be around the the bottom we had in October 22...that's like 50 55% down”
There is currently no safe place globally to be invested; emerging markets will suffer from a strong dollar, China faces real estate deflation, Japan has been trapped in stagnation, and few regions offer protection except through dollar cash or government bonds
“I mean I don't want to be in Emerging Markets when you'll see the Dixie is going to move up with uh to 120 uh if I get that right into 25 um that is going to be a terrible place I don't think China or anywhere else there is going to have a a fun time either I think we starting to see the deflation of the deflation of development there actually because they have a big problem in their whole real estate sector I don't think the that Japan looks great at this point here”
There is currently no evidence of a soft landing; consumer sentiment is deteriorating as evidenced by rising credit card delinquencies, and the economy is rolling over into recession that will persist through much of 2025
“you have a lot of talk about a soft Landing which there is no evidence for whatsoever soft Landing would mean that the consumers were now feeling better they do not they if you look at delinquencies and so on and credit card delinquencies you'll just see that that is you know skyrocketing”
99% of cryptocurrencies will crash to near-zero and never recover, as the current capitalization of the crypto market is 'outrageous' and only a small fraction of projects will survive the bust and the subsequent regulatory consolidation
“99% of the the cryptos will crash and they will never ever see you know uh the values that they have now it's it's outrageous the kind of money the kind of the capitalization that you have now”
The US dollar will rally sharply to 120 on the DXY (dollar index) during the deflationary bust as demand for dollars surges for debt restructuring and deleveraging globally.
“I think the dollar the dicks may go to 120 from whatever level where we see a bottom here within the the coming weeks and months here um then I think the dollar can move up very very strongly”
There are few safe places globally to be during a deflationary crisis; Emerging Markets will be hit hard by a strong dollar (DXY to 120), China is experiencing real estate deflation, and Japan has already exhausted monetary stimulus capacity.
“I mean I don't want to be in Emerging Markets when you'll see the Dixie is going to move up with uh to 120 uh if I get that right into 25 um that is going to be a terrible place I don't think China or anywhere else there is going to have a a fun time either I think we starting to see the deflation of the deflation of development there actually because they have a big problem in their whole real estate sector I don't think the that Japan looks great at this point here”
The narrative that Bitcoin will become money and governments cannot do anything about it is 'BS' because central banks will prioritize sound money and won't allow competing systems.
“so the whole narrative about this becoming money and there's nothing the FED can do about it or anybody else I think it's BS honestly and I will say that out out I I think it's you know if for you know when when the fed and the rest of the world needs to get sound money back in again they will not just allow thousands of cryptos are circulating out there”
Denmark could face a 'luxury problem' of such large capital inflows (from investors seeking safety in non-Eurozone European currency) that upward pressure on the Danish krone becomes economically harmful despite being preferable to the crisis elsewhere.
“we could have a capital inflow which could be so great that our our the pressure on the Danish croner could be to the upside which would be another kind of problem but a kind of a luxury problem in the world where where things could on you know could could could come Crashing Down”
Most crypto investors are currently chasing momentum rather than identifying genuine long-term winners, and they should be cautious about being 'soaked into that sentiment.'
“it's you know that's why I stand out and say it I say it loudly I say I Rite it because I don't want to be called out and say well Henri you can't see that it's you know value now and then you know but I also say I know that there is time when you need to get out because when the real business cycle starts to take over here you're not going to see this doing trem tremendously well and and that's it so I write it and I don't see it becoming real money I see see it as could it become digital gold at some point Bitcoin there's a chance for that I'll give it that”
China faces significant deflationary pressures from its real estate sector problems, and will not have a good time during the coming global crisis despite its size and resources.
“I don't think China or anywhere else there is going to have a a fun time either I think we starting to see the deflation of the deflation of development there actually because they have a big problem in their whole real estate sector”
Japan faces a perfect crisis setup because its very low interest rates over many years have created valuation extremes, and it has limited room to stimulate further without destabilizing markets.
“I think Japan looks great at this point here I think we have had a the most the the the the perfect crisis be becoming because you can actually have a point where it's unable to stimulate uh even further because I mean it's uh you have the perfect valuation with when when the interest rates have been so low for so many years”
Central banks will likely not tolerate the creation of another speculative bubble (via 99% of alternative cryptos) after they reset the monetary system to address the current one; most crypto projects will crash to zero and never recover their current valuations.
“they have to react to that they're not going to allow another bubble to arise from that so let's see what happens to bitcoin especially I think you know 99% of the the cryptos will crash and they will never ever see you know uh the values that they have now it's it's outrageous the kind of money the kind of the capitalization that you have now”
Bitcoin could be outlawed if central banks see it as a way to circumvent monetary control, particularly in a stagflationary environment where they need to reassert control over the money supply and prevent alternative stores of value.
“there's going to be a um a point in time where we're going to see potentially stack flation unfolding if I get that right then something has to be done by the governments and by by the central banks and they most likely will not like that money can just circumvent you know the whole system and go into Bitcoin into something else so I think you're G to see that Bitcoin could be um outlawed”
The markets are currently still moving higher in equities and risk assets in the US despite economic deterioration, and Zberg does not believe the crash will begin immediately, allowing for further upside before the reversal
“I still think there will be some time let me just you know point that out and say I don't think we are seeing the market starting to decline just right here and uh I think we're going to see um equities and risk asset moving higher from here in the US that is”
The optimal time to buy commodities will be when media sentiment is most negative—when everyone is saying gold has lost its mojo and oil is an old-fashioned energy source—mirroring the market psychology that preceded the 2008 stimulus and the subsequent commodity rally
“at that point I say okay now things the environment will shift but you'll probably be in a moment there where everybody will be talking about saying okay gold lost its uh it's Mojo it's h it's not never going to come up again and you know uh things like that and oral is to stay low or whatever they will say oil is just you know an oldfashioned kind of energy source whatever all these things is what people need to say well okay when we start to hear that that's the kind of chitchat we want in the in the street because then probably you get some good deals”
Gold's outperformance relative to silver, platinum, and gold miners (gold +60% vs. miners/silver -40–50% since 2011) indicates a sentiment-driven bubble in gold rather than fundamental strength, and this divergence will mean-revert sharply during the deflationary bust.
“if you look at it in the big perspective of things and you look at also AC Ross with with other assets all the all other um precious metals you'll see that gold actually has outperformed uh silver so if you look at from Silver from 2011 it's down like 50 40 40% I think if you look at Platinum somewhat the same 40 43% if you look at the gold miners I think it's 48 for platum if you look at the miners they're down 43% so why is it gold is up and everything around gold is uh down why is it that we see that discrepancy”
WTI crude oil will decline to $43 as its next major support level during the deflationary phase, as demand continues to collapse
“you see the next support level for WTI Crude at $43”
There is no evidence for a soft landing narrative—credit card delinquencies and consumer sentiment data show the consumer is not feeling better and the economy is rolling over.
“I I would say that first of all look at the mar the the the economy at this point I mean if you look I mean you have a lot of talk about a soft Landing which there is no evidence for whatsoever soft Landing would mean that the consumers were now feeling better they do not they if you look at delinquencies and so on and credit card delinquencies you'll just see that that is you know skyrocketing”
Denmark may be one of the few regions that will weather the deflationary crisis relatively well due to strong public finances, high tax acceptance, and not being part of the eurozone, though it will still face unemployment and other pressures
“I think maybe a place like Denmark could be a place uh because we have our our um our you um public finances in order we we you know we pay rather high taxes and people are okay with that but I think we will still be be hit by Massive unemployment and also by a lot of other things but I think we will stand out rather strong uh especially if the Euro Stone starts to wobble because we are not a part of the Euro”
Gold has been 'talked up' into a bubble by itself due to safe-haven sentiment, and people believe they need to hold it because it's spoken about as the safe thing to own.
“I think it's because gold has been talked up to becoming that you know that's the safe haven and actually more or less now is in a kind of a smaller bubble by itself now because you know it's been spoken up so much everybody needs to hold goal because that's the safe thing”
Henrik is making a public and vocal case against the current crypto and equity bubble narratives to avoid being discredited later when predictions prove accurate, and he understands that business cycles will eventually take over and end the blowoff
“that's why I stand out and say it I say it loudly I say I Rite it because I don't want to be called out and say well Henri you can't see that it's you know value now and then you know but I also say I know that there is time when you have to get out because when the real business cycle starts to take over here you're not going to see this doing trem tremendously well”
The moment to buy commodities and precious metals is when the Fed announces major stimulus packages and the economic sentiment becomes very pessimistic about these assets, not when everyone is bullish on them.
“I think that is a good time uh that that is probably when I say okay now things the environment will shift but you'll probably be in a moment there where everybody will be talking about saying okay gold lost its uh it's Mojo it's h it's not never going to come up again and you know uh things like that and oral is to stay low or whatever they will say oil is just you know an oldfashioned kind of energy source whatever all these things is what people need to say well okay when we start to hear that that's the kind of chitchat we want in the in the street because then probably you get some good deals”
The realistic entry point for crypto will be after the real business cycle takes over (post-crash), not during the final blowoff phase, which is why Henrik is vocal in warning against current sentiment despite knowing the rally will continue.
“when the real business cycle starts to take over here you're not going to see this doing trem tremendously well and and that's it so I write it and I don't see it becoming real money”
The proliferation of meme coins and altcoins with no intrinsic value, moving up as fast as they have, proves that crypto is in a ridiculous bubble.
“just a bare fact that you're looking at mem coins and the like just taking the lead here and moving up as fast as they have it's ridiculous it's I mean it's a ridiculous bubble”
Bitcoin miners represent a superior investment to Bitcoin itself during the blowoff phase due to their leverage to Bitcoin price movements, and Zberg began accumulating miners at the bottom of the cycle
“I know when to get in and get out I think I I kind of got in in the at the bottom of it I've been buying up Bitcoin miners ever since I think Bitcoin miners is going to be a fantastic um you know develop quite amazingly over the next few weeks and months here”
The economic rollover will extend 'a good distance into 2025' as the deflationary bust unfolds, meaning the hard bottom for equities and commodities will not occur until well into the year.
“it will continue into 25 a good you know p a good you know distance into 25”
The NASDAQ will likely reach approximately 23,400 to 24,000 before the end of the current bull market.
“the NASDAQ will probably be a little more 23,000 400 something like that maybe up to 24,000 but uh that probably be the end of it when it comes to equities”
Bitcoin miners are a better investment opportunity than Bitcoin itself because they benefit from Bitcoin price appreciation but also represent underlying productive assets and infrastructure, and Zberg has been accumulating them since identifying the bottom.
“I kind of got in in the at the bottom of it I've been buying up Bitcoin miners ever since I think Bitcoin miners is going to be a fantastic um you know develop quite amazingly over the next few weeks and months here”
The first 50-55% decline in the S&P from current levels tells us more about the unsustainability of the rise than about the severity of the crash itself—there will be additional declines after the first washout.
“when I say that the first stop on the way for the S&P will be where we were in October 22 people think oh my God that's like 50 55% down correct but that actually tells us more about the move up we have had than the sustainability of what we have”
It makes no sense to buy gold at current levels if you expect it to decline 30-60% into the deflationary bust; better to wait and buy miners for nothing after they've crashed.
“why would I sit and look at gold to declining by 30 40 50 60% into a deflationary bust before I can pick up the miners for nothing so I think it's about being a little more time you know full in in terms of how you get to the market”
Bitcoin will rally to 115,000 to 120,000 as part of the final blowoff phase in crypto, driven by rotation from large-cap equities into Bitcoin and altcoins, particularly after the 2024 election.
“I set 115,000 to 120,000 on bitcoin I still stand by that”
The S&P 500 is approaching a target range of 6,300 to 6,400 based on Fibonacci extension levels and technical structures, and this represents the final phase of a blowoff top before a sharp crash.
“if I'm going to get the 63 to 6,400 but it's still there's still some upside”
Monthly candlestick charts for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ show extraordinary upside moves compared to longer historical periods, indicating a blowoff top is forming and sustainability of these levels is improbable
“if you look at monthly candles for the for the S&P and for Nasdaq you can see how high they've been moving or how much and how fast they've been moving um so when I say that the first stop on the way for the S&P will be where we were in October 22 people think oh my God that's like 50 55% down correct but that actually tells us more about the move up we have had than the sustainability of what we have”
Silver is not a good buy at current levels due to negative momentum divergences and a technical wedge breakdown on the weekly chart, indicating further downside before a recovery.
“I see the structure if you look also the structure on a weekly basis you will actually see that there is a what I say in a momentum WI a negative Divergence and silvera's been going into a wedge and now dropped down out of Bel low out of that and that is not necessarily a good sign on a technical basis to to to buy silver on”
Oil prices are expected to find support around $43 per barrel during the deflationary bust.
“you mentioned falling Energy prices you've you see the next support level for WTI Crude at $43”
The commodity cycle will be 'absolutely fantastic' going into late 2025 and early 2026 and beyond.
“I think the Commodities cycle is going to be absolutely fantastic going into late 25 and early 26 and even on beyond that”
The probability of eurozone breakup is below 50% but remains a material risk that is 'absolutely on the table' as a possibility.
“but it's a more radical thing so it's not something I give a 50% uh you know um probability it's probably much lower than that but it's absolutely on the table”
Bitcoin could potentially become digital gold at some point, representing one possibility for Bitcoin's long-term future.
“I see see it as could it become digital gold at some point Bitcoin there's a chance for that I'll give it that”
Zberg works with Fibonacci extension levels, RSI divergences, and momentum indicators to identify market tops and generate price targets, as opposed to fundamental analysis.
“this is where I work with structures I work with Fibonacci extension levels I work with um work with RSI divergences momentum and so on to understand where is it that I most likely could see a top”
There is a shoulder-head-shoulder pattern forming in oil prices after breaking out of a triangle, which signals an imminent and very large decline in oil prices.
“there is a very clear on a daily basis right now a shoulder head shoulder pattern after it has come out of a triangle which means to me that we are just in a phase of a lot a very big decline actually in Gold sorry in oil”
Silver has negative momentum divergence and is trapped in a wedge pattern on weekly timeframes, suggesting it is only bouncing temporarily rather than beginning a sustainable recovery toward gold
“if you look also the structure on a weekly basis you will actually see that there is a what I say in a momentum WI a negative Divergence and silvera's been going into a wedge and now dropped down out of Bel low out of that and that is not necessarily a good sign on a technical basis to to to buy silver on”
After the S&P reaches 6,300–6,400 and Bitcoin hits 115,000–120,000, the first support level for both will represent approximately a 50% decline, with first stops around the October 2022 lows for equities and the 60,000 level for Bitcoin.
“when I say that the first stop on the way for the S&P will be where we were in October 22 people think oh my God that's like 50 55% down correct”
Oil prices are in a shoulder-head-shoulder pattern on a daily basis after previously breaking out of a triangle, indicating a major decline ahead.
“there is a very clear on a daily basis right now a shoulder head shoulder pattern after it has come out of a triangle which means to me that we are just in a phase of a lot a very big decline actually in Gold sorry in oil”
The Zberg Report is a biweekly publication where Henrik discusses economic outlook and market direction, and has been running for four-and-a-half years.
“the seber report yeah that's a where we have a Bi weekly um where I also tell about the economy where where do I see the economy going also and uh yeah it's been going on for four years now four and a half years”
Technical structures like Fibonacci extensions and RSI divergences are Henrik's primary tools for identifying market turning points and establishing price targets across equities, crypto, and commodities.
“I work with structures I work with Fibonacci extension levels I work with um work with RSI divergences momentum and so on to understand where is it that I most likely could see a top”
Henrik's role at Swiss Block is to advise financial institutions, large high-net-worth individuals, and other clients on macro economic cycles and investment environments using a business cycle model framework.
“I work with macro So based on our business cycle model understanding the world and uh which direction is the the world really going are we going in a in a uh into a a new recovery in the in the economy or is it going the other way and uh and this I also use with um we we we advise our customers which are also financial institutions large uh and high net worth individuals with you know these kind of perspectives on so that they can better understand the invest investment environment”
Bitcoin could potentially become digital gold at some point in the future, which is the only scenario where Henrik sees a possible long-term value proposition
“could it become digital gold at some point Bitcoin there's a chance for that I'll give it that yeah”
People who are new to markets may find it hard to appreciate that the recent upside is 'quite extraordinary' because they have only experienced the bull market post-2020.
“that's why it's probably somewhat hard for some people that are just new to markets to see that this is actually quite extraordinary”
Swiss Block is Zberg's macroeconomic advisory firm that uses business cycle models to advise financial institutions and high net worth individuals on investment positioning and understanding the economic environment
“I'm the head macroeconomist at Swiss block and uh what we do there is that first of all I I work with macro So based on our business cycle model understanding the world and uh which direction is the the world really going...we we we advise our customers which are also financial institutions large uh and high net worth individuals with you know these kind of perspectives on so that they can better understand the invest investment environment”
The Zberg Report is a bi-weekly publication produced by Zberg that analyzes the direction of the economy and macroeconomic outlook, and has been published for approximately four and a half years
“the seber report yeah that's a where we have a Bi weekly um where I also tell about the economy where where do I see the economy going also and uh yeah it's been going on for four years now four and a half years”
The Dutch disease problem (where export growth from one sector causes currency appreciation that makes other sectors uncompetitive) is not a concern for Denmark because its overall economy has sound fundamentals.
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