What this covers
The coalition the Democratic Party built in the Obama years has crumbled. But Democrats can choose how to respond.
Mentioned:
“Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/opinion/ezra-klein-biden-audio-essay.html) ”
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast (https://www.nytimes.com/column/ezra-klein-podcast) . Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs (https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html) .
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by our supervising editor, Claire Gordon. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Jack McCordick and Kristin Lin. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Rollin Hu and Elias Isquith. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.
Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts (http://nytimes.com/podcasts) or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Source description (no synthesized summary yet).
The 2024 Trump victory reflects not a historic landslide but post-pandemic anti-incumbent backlash, revealing that Democrats lost touch with core voters and failed to reckon with Biden's unpopularity; Democrats must abandon the exhausted Obama coalition and pursue genuine curiosity about disaffected voters rather than contempt, to discover what new politics might emerge.
- Trump's 1.5-point popular vote margin is smaller than recent Democratic victories and only a 5-point gain from 2020, suggesting conditional rather than transformative victory
- Biden's refusal to step aside until weeks before the convention prevented Democrats from running a real primary or addressing the core problem that voters fundamentally rejected his administration
- Democrats alienated disaffected voters like those on Joe Rogan's platform by rejecting them rather than engaging, losing ground with Black, Hispanic, and working-class voters
This asset isn't compiled yet
You're seeing its claims, ranked. Compile it to build the argument threads, weight them, and check each claim against your library — the full view.
Post-pandemic, post-inflation anti-incumbent backlash explains the 2024 Trump victory across multiple countries: in the UK the Conservative Party had their worst election ever, in Japan the Liberal Democratic Party had one of their worst elections ever, and left-of-center governments have fallen in Sweden, Finland, and Portugal, with Justin Trudeau hideously unpopular in Canada—suggesting that whoever was in power during 2021-2022 has been getting annihilated in elections regardless of political ideology.
“one theory is that this is the post pandemic po inflation anti-incumbent backlash that we've been seeing in country after country after country whoever was in power in 2021 and 2022 is getting annihilated ated in elections this is true for parties on the right and parties on the left in the UK the Tories had their worst election ever in Japan the liberal Democratic party which confusingly for us is a conservative party had one of their worst elections ever left of center governments have fallen in Sweden and Finland and Portugal look a little bit north and Canada's Justin Trudeau is hideously unpopular”
Trump won gains with Black and Hispanic voters in 2024—margins Democrats thought they had a lock on—and if Democrats had been told in 2016 what margins Trump would get with Black and Hispanic voters by 2024, they would have laughed in your face.
“he began doing something Democrats didn't expect winning over Black and Hispanic voters who Democrats thought they had a lock on...Trump is triggering a realignment of the parties which is a really remarkable thing to trigger in American politics...if you had told Democrats in 2016 the margins Donald Trump would be getting with Black and Hispanic voters in 2024 they would have laughed in your face”
In 2016, Democrats could view their loss to Trump as partly chance (Comey letter at campaign's end) and treat Trump as somewhat accidental or illegitimate, but by 2020 Trump gained more votes than in 2016 despite his chaotic administration and pandemic mismanagement, showing his appeal was resilient.
“In 2016 Democrats were shocked to lose to Trump but that loss had the consolation of chance Democrats won the popular vote and you can make a very good case that if the Comey letter hadn't hit right at the end of The Campaign Hillary Clinton would have won I believe that case and so the response was resistance treating Trump as accidental sometimes even illegitimate in 2020 Trump loses a popular vote decisively but more people voted for him than did in 2016”
Democrats have won elections including in the current cycle (Arizona has a Democratic governor and senator), so the idea that Democrats cannot win in certain states is false, but Harris faced structural constraints that made her specific task very difficult.
“Democrats have won too many elections including in this election cycle for me to believe Democrats cannot win in the states they need to win Arizona has a Democratic governor and it has a Democratic senator in Mar Kelly and now looks to have another Democratic senator in Ruben gyo and so the idea that Democrats cannot win in these places I just don't think it's true”
Obama's 2008 victory seemed unimaginable in 2004 because he was an anti-war Black man with a middle name Hussein whose politics were forged in Chicago, yet he won by understanding the political moment had changed rather than chasing 2004 voters who had rejected Democrats.
“Barack Obama's convention speech that year was startlingly good but he was still an anti-war black man with a middle name Hussein whose politics were forged in Chicago that wasn't what Democrats thought would win them Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Indiana in 2008 but it was”
Democrats did not just lose the 2024 election—they lost it because Joe Biden, at 80 years old and hovering beneath 40% favorability in most polls, should never have run for re-election, yet for months the Democratic party with very few exceptions refused to say this as poll after poll showed super majorities of voters thought Biden too old for the job, and the party suppressed any serious challenge to him, suppressed its own doubts, and ignored its own voters.
“Joe Biden at 80 years old and hovering beneath 40% favorability in most polls should never have run for re-election but for months and months and months the Democratic party with very few exceptions shout out here I guess to Dean Phillips refused to say that as poll after poll showed super majorities of Voters thought Biden too old for this job the party continued to suppress any serious challenge to him or even really dissent about him it suppressed its own doubts it ignored its own voters”
While Ezra faults the Harris campaign for not developing a connected policy critique and vision defining what her candidacy was about, he does not fault her highly because the constraints were severe and she did work well given them.
“the place where I do fault her and where I faulted that campaign is I don't think they came up with a message of connected policy critique and vision... I think that's always been a weakness of hers... you would have needed a really really really strong candidate to do that at that speed and she wasn't able to do that”
Democrats have seen contempt emerging as a response, with the sentiment that if Americans are willing to vote for Trump given all he has said and done, then that's on them and there's nothing Democrats could have done to dissuade them.
“I've seen plenty of contempt already the sentiment that if Americans are willing to vote for Donald Trump given all that he has said and all that he has done then that's on them there's nothing Democrats or Harris could have done to dissuade them”
The time between Harris taking command of the campaign and picking a vice president and having the entire convention completed was a matter of weeks, when that process is supposed to happen over months.
“the time between taking the Reigns of the campaign and picking the vice president and having the entire convention is a matter of weeks that's supposed to happen over months”
After the 2004 Bush victory, Democrats became obsessed with winning back the Heartland, believing that cultural distance (particularly around gay marriage) had cost them the election, leading to a belief they needed tougher, more masculine candidates and needed to become more like what had defeated them—but this was a misreading because Bush's 2004 victory was not the beginning of a Republican realignment but the end of the Republican party as Democrats knew it.
“immediately after that election Democrats became obsessed with winning back the Heartland with their cultural distance from the voters they needed there was this belief that gay marriage ballot initiatives had cost Democrats the election there was a Vogue for tough masculine politicians like Brian schwitzer than the Democratic governor of Montana...George W Bush's win in 2004 was not the beginning of a republican realignment it was the end of the Republican party as we knew it”
Trump's 2024 victory margin of approximately 1.5 percentage points in the popular vote is smaller than Barack Obama's wins in 2012 and 2008, smaller than George W. Bush's 2004 win, and smaller than Bill Clinton's 1992 and 1996 victories, potentially smaller than Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin of 2.1 percentage points.
“the estimate suggest he is on track for a one and a half Point margin in the popular vote if that holds and and it may not it may change as California is fully counted it is smaller than Barack Obama's win in 2012 or 2008 it is smaller than George W Bush's win in 2004 or Bill Clinton's wins in 1996 and 1992 it may prove even smaller than Hillary Clinton's 2.1% popular vote margin in 2016”
Down-ballot results in 2024 do not show a red wave; Republicans will win the Senate and House, but many endangered Democrats in swing states are holding on, and looking at Senate and House races, many incumbents who are not Biden/Harris did just fine, showing the anger was specific to the Biden Administration's record rather than broad anti-incumbent or anti-Democratic sentiment.
“there's not been a a down ballot Red Wave this year either I think they're going to win the Senate and the house but it looks like a lot of endangered Democrats in swing states are going to hold on...plenty of incumbent did just fine and it wasn't even broad anti-democratic sentiment if you look at a lot of these Senate races and house races plenty of Democrats did just fine there was specific anger at the Biden Administration”
In 2020, many online liberals were furious at Bernie Sanders for going on Joe Rogan's podcast, calling Rogan a transphobe, Islamophobe, and sexist, wanting to marginalize rather than engage with him, though Klein argues this was a strategic mistake because Sanders' ability to attract Rogan demonstrated he could beat someone like Trump.
“many liberals were furious at Bernie Sanders for going on Rogan in the first place I was still on Twitter back then and I wrote about how of course Bernie Sanders was right to be there that the fact that Sanders could attract people like Rogan was one of the very best Arguments for his campaign one of the reasons he might be able to beat someone like Donald Trump this was 2020 if you wanted to beat Trump of course you try to win over Rogan and his voters but online liberals got so pissed at me for that as briefly a trending topic on Twitter Rogan was a transphobe an islamophobe a sexist the kind of person you wanted to marginalize not the kind of person you wanted to talk to”
Much of the Democratic alienation from disaffected voters and figures like Joe Rogan stems from a 'woke unwoke divide'—Democrats have alienated themselves from the culture many people and particularly many men now consume, and losing Rogan by rejecting him rather than engaging was a terrible strategic mistake that will take a long time to undo.
“I'm not just talking here about a woke unwoke divide though I do think a lot of Democrats have alienated themselves from the culture that many people and particularly many men Now consume I don't think Rogan was close to them I think they lost people like Rogan by rejecting them and it was a terrible mistake and one that's going to take a long time to undo”
Harris immediately began to pivot and emphasize policies reflecting what people were upset about (bipartisan border bill, housing) when she took the reins, and while some of this reflected listening, people could tell which policies she genuinely cared about (reproductive rights) versus which ones she was adopting strategically, showing that voter perception of authentic commitment matters more than policy platform breadth.
“Harris when she took the Reigns immediately began to Pivot and try to emphasize things that that reflected a sense of what people are upset about right emphasizing the bipartisan border Bill housing...I do think Harris really felt when she talked about row when she talked about dos when she talked about Reproductive Rights you could feel this was her issue on others you couldn't”
If Nikki Haley had been the Republican nominee in 2024, she likely would have won in a landslide, suggesting Trump's victory relied more on anti-incumbent backlash than on a transformative realignment unique to Trump.
“if Nikki Haley had been running she probably would have there's a lot to that but it is incomplete”
Kamala Harris was dealt a bad hand—she had no time to set up her own campaign, no time to work out its themes and court policies, and she was running inevitably as the champion or inheritor of an administration people were angry at, unable to separate herself from Joe Biden without being accused of disloyalty.
“Harris was dealt a bad hand she had no time to set up her own campaign she had no time to work out its themes and Court policies and she was running inevitably as the champion or the inheritor or frankly just a member of an Administration people were angry at she could not separate herself out from Joe Biden without being accused of disloyalty”
A competitive primary process or open convention would have been valuable because competitive processes create information—they bring argument, dissension, conflict, and fracture, but through that process you discover what you do not yet know, seeing through debates, speeches, and interviews what candidates are made of and whether they can connect to the country's mood and moment.
“I was one of the people arguing since back in February for some kind of competitive process a mini primary or primary leading to an open convention those processes what they do is create information yes they can bring argument and dissension and conflict and Fracture but it is through argument and disension and conflict and Fracture that you discover what you do not yet know it is through the bruising process of primaries and debates and speeches and interviews that you see what candidates are made of you see how and whether they are able to connect to the mood and the moment of the country”
The theory that Biden's unpopularity was merely a communication problem—that he couldn't sell his achievements—is partially true, but insufficient: even in 2012, when unemployment was above 8%, far worse than in 2024, Obama won re-election by telling a story about economic recovery, but Biden and Harris faced an additional structural problem that a stronger incumbent could not solve: Harris had to choose between defending an unpopular administration or distancing herself, and could do neither credibly.
“I still think that's true actually if it's so hard because we're all a little too patterned on the elections we've lived through but I talked a lot about 2004 in the essay but but think about 2012 bar Obama is running for re-election Unemployment uh at least as of the middle of that election cycle was above 8% it was so high the economy was so much worse than it is now and Obama ends up winning...instead there's this late baton handoff to KL Harris who has to decide between trying to sell the Biden administration's record when it is quite unpopular and trying to create her own separated identity”
Bush administration lies, the Iraq War disaster, and the 2008 financial crisis were clear indicators of Republican party dysfunction, leaving Republican elites' reputation 'absolutely smashed' and setting the stage for Trump's eventual takeover of the Republican party—suggesting that exhaustion and dysfunction of the incumbent party, not the challenger's appeal, drives realignment.
“what liberals thought of bush then was true his administration was a disaster the Iraq War was a catastrophe built on lies and all of that would come clearer and come to be more widely believed within a few years...the bush administration's overreaches failur and Scandals left the reputation of the Republican party's Elites so absolutely smashed that the stage was set for Donald Trump's eventual and complete takeover of the party”
Joe Rogan's podcast went from having Bernie Sanders on for a friendly interview where Rogan indicated he would probably vote for Bernie ('I think I'll probably vote for Bernie') to becoming 'deeply weird and right-wing and conspiratorial' by 2024, reflecting a shift in the political ecosystem.
“I just went and I listened to some of the appearance Elon Musk made on Joe Rogan's podcast on Monday it's gotten really deeply weird and right-wing and conspiratorial...it wasn't always like that on Ran's podcast it wasn't that many years ago that Rogan had Bernie Sanders on for a friendly interview and then Rogan kind of sort of endorsed him I think I'll probably vote for Bernie”
Democrats must approach their loss with curiosity rather than contempt—curiosity about what disaffected voters are experiencing and why they see Trump differently than liberals do, requiring Democrats to go to new places and take seriously opinions and experiences they have not been taking seriously.
“there are two ways Democrats can respond right now contempt or curiosity and I've seen plenty of contempt already...there has to be curiosity here curiosity about what these people are experiencing and why they're seeing Trump so differently than liberals do Democrats have to be going to places they have not been going and taking seriously opinions and experiences they have not been taking seriously”
Claire Gordon reports being surprised that Harris lost despite the polls showing a 50-50 race, because she looked for signals of enthusiasm (rally size, money raised, small donors) that typically indicate which direction polling might be wrong, but this method failed because Trump's coalition consists of voters who do not behave like highly political actors.
“I looked at the election the polls were so 5050 you couldn't just say well I go with the polls and that shows Harris will win or or Trump will win they were you know right on the The Edge so the question was is there a Miss in One Direction or another and I looked around at things that looked like signals of enthusiasm to me how big the rallies were how much money was being raised...what led me and what has continuously been leading people astray is that the voters turning out for Trump are not highly political”
The Biden administration successfully managed the Democratic coalition internally and passed policies with broad support from both progressive and moderate Democrats, yet the party never answered voters' concrete complaints about how things felt and looked, which was a failure of political reckonning rather than policy.
“the Biden Administration has been extraordinary at managing the Democratic coal and passing things inside the Democratic Coalition that were thrilling to its Progressive wing and somewhere between acceptable and exciting to its moderate wing...at the same time the party never answered I think because it didn't really want to face up to the fact that voters disagreed they didn't like the way things felt looked they didn't think Joe Biden was up to it”
The Obama Coalition is over—it is defeated, exhausted, and has lost elections it should not have lost—and what comes next needs to be fundamentally new, not designed to win the last election or predictable from where Democrats stand now.
“Democrats need to admit that they are at the end of their own cycle of Politics the Obama Coalition is over it is defeated it is exhausted what comes next needs to be new that means going to new places and being open to new voices a politics right for the next era will not be a politics designed to win the last election it's not going to be predictable from where we stand right now”
The fundamental question is whether Trump's 2024 victory represents the beginning of a Trump realignment or whether it will end with Trump's name and reputation as tattered as that of the Bush Dynasty he destroyed.
“so is this the beginning of the Trump realignment or will this end with Trump's name and reputation as tattered as that of the Bush Dynasty he destroyed I don't know”
Ezra Klein attempted in recent months to have people from factions of the MAGA right on his show to try to understand what was happening before the election, finding this approach helpful for understanding, though he acknowledges the empathic gap—getting oneself to understand Trump support—requires tremendous effort but is necessary to understand his political dominance since 2016.
“I've tried in the last couple months to have a number of people on from at least some factions of the Maga right right that's been a project I've been trying to pursue on the show right to try to be curious about what's happening there before the election to try to understand it better and I do think that's helped me understand it better and with Trump the empathic gap...such that just takes a lot of work but I don't think you can watch the way he has dominated politics now since 2016 I mean that is an appeal that if you refuse to work on what is driving it I don't know how you think you're going to defeat it”
The Biden administration's eventual pivot to border enforcement was clearly too little and too late, though Harris emphasized it in her campaign.
“I think you see it in the Biden administration's eventual pivot to border enforcement which Harris very much emphasized in her campaign but it was clearly too little and too late”
Democrats endorse of Liz Cheney and the enthusiasm with which it was embraced can be read either as evidence of the party's big tent inclusivity OR as evidence of internal confusion about its core identity and values.
“was the endorsement of the chenies and the enthusiasm with which it was embraced a sign of the democrat's big tent or a sign of its internal confusion”
Democrats should have been going on Joe Rogan's podcast regularly in recent years and prioritizing it heavily, including Harris and Tim Walz, given Rogan's reach (his Trump interview was viewed approximately 46 million times) and the need to win over swing voters in competitive elections.
“democrats should have been going on Rogan regularly all these years they should have been prioritizing it this year yes Harris should have been there...on YouTube alone Rogan's interview with Trump was viewed some 46 million times you're just abandon that in an election where you think the other side winning means fascism”
Trump is triggering a realignment of the parties—a remarkable thing to accomplish in American politics—where the nature of the Republican coalition has genuinely changed, even though this realignment is not accompanied by historic success for the new Republican coalition, as neither a one-point popular vote win nor the maintenance of Congressional balance represents a landslide.
“Trump is triggering a realignment of the parties which is a really remarkable thing to trigger in American politics it's not an easy thing to do where the nature of the Republican Coalition really has changed...at the same time that realignment is not coming along with historic success for this new Republican Coalition it's not weird for the outof power party to win an election...this is a still fairly close election”
Trump is now surrounded by people more relentlessly focused on carrying out his will (with control of the Senate, Supreme Court, and likely the House), and while JD Vance, Elon Musk, and RFK Jr. might bring judiciousness to Trump's governing style, it is as likely or more likely they will egg him into ideological overreach and unprecedented corruption.
“Trump is surrounded Now by people who are much more relentlessly focused on carrying out his will and their own Republicans have the Senate and the Supreme Court and will likely win the house...sure maybe JD Vance and Elon Musk and RFK Jr will bring a judiciousness or coherence to Trump's governing style that he didn't have in his first term I think it is as or more likely that they egg Trump into ideological overreach and my God the corruption we're about to see”
Trump improved his margin sharply in New York City, and many people there don't identify as highly political, voted Democratic in the past, but are now angry about prices, immigration, and perceived disorder and fecklessness, representing a shift beyond traditional swing voters.
“Trump sharply improved his margin in New York city so many people I've met since moving here they just don't like Democrats anymore they're not that political they voted for Democrats in the past to the extent they voted but now they're mad about prices they're mad about immigration they're mad about a sense of disorder and failure and confusion and fecklessness”
Democrats had spent years kicking people out of their tent, so Harris's attempts to build a bigger tent were limited by this prior party behavior and perception.
“there were ways in which she wanted to build a bigger tent but the Democratic party had spent years kicking people out of its tent”
Rogan said 'I believe in him I like him I like him a lot he's been insanely consistent his entire life he's basically been saying the same thing been for the same thing his whole life' when discussing Bernie Sanders, indicating Rogan's prior willingness to support progressive candidates.
“I believe in him I like him I like him a lot he's been insanely consistent his entire life he's basically been saying the same thing been for the same thing his whole life”