The Attack on Iran — Why Now? | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

Trump promised he was going to America First, including in wars, and while there are no troops on the ground, it is now clear that unilateral American military power is being used to project outcomes that Trump wants but that much of MAGA is uncomfortable with, especially in the Middle East.

“But he also promised that he was going to America first and these wars. And while there are no troops on the ground, it is now clear that unilateral American military power is being used to project outcomes that he wants that a lot of MAGA's clearly uncomfortable with, especially in the Middle East.”

The most significant market impact of Iran strikes is likely to be disruption to tanker traffic and military ships through the Straits of Hormuz and Red Sea from Houthi strikes, with high likelihood the Straits will be impassable for at least a period of time.

“Yeah, that's the most significant market impact and and it might be the most significant vulnerability that that American servicemen and women have is is to the ships both tanker traffic directly and military ships going through the Straits of Hormuz in the Red Sea and more broadly and the Houthis have shown that they have a capacity to make strikes against these boats including like off the Horn of Africa in the Indian Ocean even more broadly. So, I mean I do think that there is a pretty high likelihood that for at least a period of time that the Straits of Hormuz will be impassable”

Unlike situations where the US can simply fly in friendlies and expect them to be welcomed at the airport, in Iran you cannot right now fly in friendlies at Tehran International Airport—that is not a thing.

“It's not as if you're able to right now, um, fly in friendlies, um, and you're going to be welcomed at the Tehran International Airport. Like, that that's not a thing.”

Trump has made good on several campaign promises: he used tariffs and cut deals with Japan, South Korea, UK, Europe, and Saudis to spend more in the US; he closed the border and fought fentanyl with Mexican partnership.

“Now, Trump has made good on a number of his promises. He promised that he was going to use tariffs and he was going to work to bring manufacturing back to the US and force other countries to spend money in the US and he's cut a bunch of deals with promises from the Japanese and the South Koreans and the UK and the Europeans and the Saudis and others to start spending a lot more money in the US. So he's whether you like the policy or not, whether you think tariffs are good idea or not and certainly doesn't affordability problem on the back of it. He's made good on that. He promised he was going to close the border and he has done a lot of work in closing the border. He promised he was going to you know, fight fentanyl. He's done a lot of work in fighting fentanyl. The Mexicans have been very very significant partners of the US on that.”

Oil prices have already spiked on the strikes and in anticipation; with lots of oil on market and relatively low demand, prices are going up; natural gas prices are also rising; getting gas to Europe will become more difficult.

“and that means that oil prices which have already spiked on these strikes and in anticipation of these strikes with with lots of oil on the market right now and with relatively low demand for oil. Those prices are going up. Natural gas, same thing. You're going to have difficulty in getting that gas to Europe and that means that those prices are going up.”

Elon Musk was the only major blowup in Trump's first year plus of the second administration; he came out against the Epstein files, talked about creating a third party, grabbed the third rail, but backed away with J.D. Vance facilitating rapprochement and now working with Trump again.

“The only major blowup we've seen in the first year now of the administration, year plus, was Elon Musk, who came out in spectacular fashion, and, you know, dished on the Epstein files, and said he was going to create a third party, and all of that. Basically, grabbed onto the third rail, but backed away from it. J.D. Vance facilitated a rapprochement, and now he's working with Trump again.”

Trump is not following through on promises that matter deeply to MAGA, which is why he is hemorrhaging support and is overwhelmingly likely to lose the House by a substantial margin in November.

“I do think that the fact that Trump now, on a number of issues, has absolutely not uh followed through on promises that matter deeply to MAGA, are are why he is hemorrhaging support, and why he is very likely, overwhelmingly likely, to lose the house, probably by a substantial margin, in November.”

Trump's inner circle is 100% aligned with him with not even an inch of space between Trump and his direct reports and cabinet, willing to facilitate his decisions even when they fail (like failed lawsuits against Democrats, Comey, and Letitia James) and willingly executing unprecedented acts like election investigation and ballot box seizure in Georgia.

“they all recognize that they're going to do exactly what Trump wants, or else...his direct reports and his cabinet are 100% support not even not not a an inch of space between Trump and those people...they are willing to do whatever he says in all of these instances whether it's about military strikes or economic terrorists or about taking efforts to ensure that the next election is not quote-unquote rigged like the FBI investigation and the seizing of the ballot boxes in Fulton County in Georgia all of these are unprecedented acts”

The Iranian regime is incredibly brutal; Khamenei has been personally responsible for regime brutality and has been a hardliner refusing effective negotiations with Americans; tens of thousands of Iranian civilians were killed under Khamenei's orders in January during demonstrations, most of them unarmed and not posing direct security threats.

“The first is that let us remember that this is an incredibly brutal regime. And that Khamenei has uh not only been personally responsible uh for the brutality of the regime, but also has been a hardliner in terms of refusing effective negotiations with the Americans uh over the past months. Um I mean certainly many thousands of Iranian civilians and and believed tens of thousands of Iranian civilians were killed uh under the order of Khamenei um in January when they were demonstrating. And most of these were unarmed and not posing a direct security threat um to the troops that they were facing off against.”

Since October 7, Israel and the United States have engaged in repeated military strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, and Iran, with no effective response from Iran's proxies or friends, establishing a pattern of unchallenged military dominance.

“we've seen since October 7th that Israel and the United States have been able to target whether it's the Houthis in Yemen or whether it's Hezbollah or whether it's Iran last year or just now or whether it's Hamas in Gaza in all of these cases the Israelis and the Americans on occasion have engaged in military strikes and there's been really no effective response whatsoever either by Iran and its proxies the so-called axis of resistance”

The Supreme Court, including Trump's own three nominees, voted against him on the AIPA ruling, constraining his future use of this tool and showing that even his appointed justices will not unconditionally support his legal arguments.

“And then a year later, less than a year later, the Supreme Court, including his own nominees, vote against him. And now it's going to be harder for him. Now he's going to be more constrained.”

Iran may not be acting rationally and may not be thinking long-term because Iranian decision-makers recognize there is an active attempt to assassinate every top-level decision-maker still alive, which is a staggering reality.

“I I think Iran, if you are a leader in Iran today, you recognize that you may not belong for this world. There is an active attempt to assassinate every decision-maker, active top-level decision-maker that is still alive in Iran today, which is a staggering thing to say. And so, um they may not be acting quite as rationally. They may not be thinking quite as long-term.”

Khamenei's death will make him appear more of a martyr in the eyes of regime supporters, of whom there are a minimum of 15-20% of the population that are hardened regime supporters and will become more so after his assassination.

“The fact that he has been killed will make him seem to be more of a martyr in the eyes certainly of those that support the regime inside Iran, of whom there are many, a minimum of probably 15 and 20% of the population that are hardened regime supporters and will become more so on the back of this assassination.”

Trump claimed the operation is meant to be one of regime change and called on the Iranian people to seize a 'once-in-a-generation opportunity' to take their government, but taking the government requires overthrowing the IRGC, military, Basij paramilitaries, police, and others willing and capable of lethal force against Iranian civilians, and there is no evidence this is about to change.

“But he also said this is meant to be an operation of regime change. He said, "Now that we're taking out the leadership, it is your once-in-a-generation opportunity, the Iranian people, to take your government." But taking the government requires overthrowing those members of the IRGC, the military, the Basij, the paramilitary groups, um, the the police officers on the streets, um, and others that have been very willing and capable of using lethal force against the Iranian civilians. And there's no reason to believe that that's about to change.”

Within a week, Iran will likely no longer have the direct capacity to threaten other regimes in the region through conventional military activities, though they may retain asymmetric capabilities through proxies, terrorist funding, espionage, and other non-conventional means.

“I think it is it is plausible that in very short order Iran will no longer have direct capacity to threaten other regimes in the region. They may have asymmetric capabilities through proxies. They could certainly fund terrorist activities, that sort of thing. They could engage in espionage. But but conventional military activities, we are nearing the end of Iran's capacity to project power.”

The only logic Bremmer can identify for Iran's attacks on civilian areas in neutral countries is a desperate demonstration that Iran will respond with costs and consequences despite knowing that hardened military targets will likely be destroyed, making civilian targeting the only way to show strength and defiance.

“If you know that anything you do against hardened facilities, like bases or like critical energy infrastructure, is likely to be shot down, and you want to show that you can do something, that you're not going to just sit and take it, that there will be costs and consequences, that that is, you know, perhaps the logic that leads you to engage in those strikes against civilian targets um among countries that are presently non-combatants.”

In the early hours after strikes, the Iranian leadership has made very little statement; we've seen some fog of war and the foreign minister make statements, but that's about it, suggesting unclear succession and communication disruption.

“As well as we want to see what kind of statements are being made by the Iranian leadership and who's making them so far. I mean, early hours we've not we've seen very little. We've seen fog of war and the foreign minister make some statements, but that's about it.”

Trump is running out of time; the trajectory has been negative over recent months and becomes harder to turn around every day; he is likely to become more risk acceptant as a consequence, which may play out in other military episodes internationally.

“And and that's be- he's running out of time. It's it's getting harder for him to turn that around every day. And I don't think that unilateral strikes on Iran with Israel um are are going to change that. Uh I don't think the Supreme Court's ruling on AIPA is going to change that. I don't think that uh the Minneapolis um ICE efforts are going to change that. I I I think that um he's in more trouble uh over the last couple months. The trajectory has been negative for him, and he's likely to become much more risk acceptant as a consequence of that, which may well play out in other military episodes internationally.”

Trump has confidence stemming from his success in Venezuela removing Nicolas Maduro and bringing him to justice, with that operation having been popular with Americans and most Latin American countries despite some Venezuelan and Cuban deaths.

“Well, um there are a couple of reasons. First, there is a level of confidence that Trump has uh both on the back of his uh success in Venezuela having uh removed Nicolas Maduro, not assassinated him, actually bringing him to justice, though a lot of Venezuelans and Cubans were killed in the operation. No Americans were. It's gone over well. Uh the Americans find it popular. Uh most of the Latin American countries find it popular, and you know, he's like, well, I can do this in other places, too.”

The most important thing to watch closely is what happens internally in Iran: what demonstrations emerge, what instability develops, how much information gets out via Telegram and other sources given lack of open media, and whether demonstrations occur in towns farther from Tehran where ethnic minorities and Kurds live with lower Iranian government control.

“Most closely I'm watching internally Iran. I want to see what kind of demonstrations we see, what kind of instability and how much of that gets out vis-a-vis Telegram and other sources because not like there's an open media that can actually report on it. Do we see some towns that are farther away, you know, Tehran away from Tehran where you have ethnic minorities for example where you know, it's harder where there are Kurds Uh, there are others that it's much harder for the Iranian central government to actually have complete control.”

Trump ensured that adequate military capabilities were in place in the region only days before the strikes, involving both American strike capacity and America's ability to defend Israel and its allies across the region, and the strikes occurred at the first window of opportunity after those preparations were complete.

“Uh but he did want to ensure that there was adequate military capabilities in the region both in terms of the strikes that the Americans were going to engage in that we're now seeing the beginning of but also in terms of America's ability to help defend Israel and its own bases and its allies across the region. Um that final the final components of that only got into place days ago and then this was the first window of opportunity um after that when the Americans and Israelis had a clean shot at the supreme leader and the top military leadership um and they gave the order.”

If no American soldiers are getting killed, it is a much easier proposition for Trump to square military strikes with his MAGA supporters.

“I mean, if no American soldiers are getting killed, um then it's a much easier proposition for him to square with his MAGA supporters.”

Large numbers of Americans killed because of a war of choice in Iran will be unpopular with significant numbers of Trump's MAGA base.

“large numbers of Americans killed because of a war of choice in Iran will be unpopular with significant numbers of Trump's MAGA base.”

If Trump were listening to his top advisers on tariffs (Secretary of Treasury and US trade rep), he would not have used tariffs, as they warned him the policy wouldn't stand up; instead, Trump overrode them because he knows better as president.

“If he were listening to his top advisers, he would be acting very differently. I think the the Venezuelan issue he would have handled very similarly. But I mean, you know, the IEPA tariffs, he was told by his Secretary of Treasury and by his US trade rep, "Don't use this. It won't stand up." And he obviously knows better than they do because he's the president. He's the one that won. And so he went ahead and he did it. And then a year later, less than a year later, the Supreme Court, including his own nominees, vote against him.”

Hezbollah has been completely decapitated by Israeli strikes over the past year through Patriot attacks and other means, but has refilled its ranks and remains nowhere near as capable as before while still retaining capacity to govern on the ground in southern Lebanon, preventing Lebanese government and army from disarming them.

“We have seen that with Hezbollah with complete decapitation by Israel over the last year, the Patriot attacks and all of that, and they have refilled their ranks, right? And they are nowhere near as capable as they used to be. They don't pose a significant threat to Israel today, but they still have a lot of capacity to govern on the ground in southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese government and army has been incapable {slash} unwilling to disarm them, which is why the ceasefire is has been hard to maintain.”

Trump has prior military experience with Iran from his first term after withdrawing from the JCPOA nuclear deal, and when he engaged in military strikes against Iran previously, the Iranians were not able or willing to hit him back, so he does not perceive a significant deterrent capability.

“Pa- part of it is that he's had experience with Iran before, military experience. Uh after withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal, the JCPOA, in his first term, he's put the Iranians on notice on a couple of occasions, and when he is engaged in military strikes against Iran, the Iranians have not been able or willing to hit him back. Uh and so, he he doesn't feel like he there's a deterrent capability here, so he's not taking a particularly big risk.”

The Iranian military leadership has taken substantial strikes over the 12-day war last year and reconstituted themselves quite quickly without affecting their ability and willingness to repress internally, and it appears a number of other military leaders may be dead along with Khamenei, possibly the head of the IRGC.

“Um, the Iranian military leadership has taken substantial strikes over the 12-day war last year and they reconstituted themselves quite quickly. It didn't affect their ability and willingness to repress internally. It It does appear that a number of other military leaders may well be dead. Um, probably not the president, um, but others. The president's not a very important figure, frankly, in the eyes of the Iranian people or in driving power, but the head of the IRGC may well be dead.”

It is hard to imagine major escalation; this is not going to become a regional war or World War III, but rather is primarily about what happens on the ground in Iran, similar to the question of what happens on the ground in Caracas and Venezuela after Maduro was captured.

“but again in an environment where it's hard to imagine major escalation. This is not going to become a regional war. This is certainly not going to become World War III. It's much more about what happens on the ground frankly in Iran. That is the biggest thing we're looking at. And in that regard very similar to right after Maduro was captured, what we were watching what was what was happening on the ground in Caracas and across Venezuela.”

Some IRGC members have provided intelligence to the Americans on the whereabouts of the supreme leader and other senior leaders, which has been helpful in achieving the success of the recent strikes, though the US does not have broader relationships with IRGC leadership to work with post-strike.

“They have gotten some support from some IRGC members who have given them information and intelligence on the whereabouts of the supreme leader and other senior leaders in Iran. That has been helpful in in getting them the success that they have just seen um in these strikes. So it's not like they haven't engaged in intelligence collection, but what they don't have is a group inside the government that they're prepared to work with”

The Europeans are functionally irrelevant to American military decision-making vis-à-vis Iran, did not join in the operation, and are not being asked to provide counsel.

“they are functionally irrelevant to American military decision-making vis-à-vis Iran. And that is an uncomfortable position for the Europeans to be in.”

China and Russia are irrelevant to this outcome; Iran has no external friends; neither Chinese critics nor Russian criticism nor Global South opposition have produced any response, and China will likely not even postpone Trump's April summit.

“the Chinese are irrelevant to this outcome the Russians Iran has no friends externally you know we've seen since October 7th that Israel and the United States have been able to target whether it's the Houthis in Yemen or whether it's Hezbollah or whether it's Iran last year or just now or whether it's Hamas in Gaza in all of these cases the Israelis and the Americans on occasion have engaged in military strikes and there's been really no effective response whatsoever either by Iran and its proxies the so-called axis of resistance or their friends and supporters around the world whether it's global South countries that really oppose the United States or it's the Russians who have been working with Iran closely to get more support for drones to help them fight against Ukraine in the war that they started four years ago the Russians or whether it's China that buys a lot of oil from Iran Um, I mean they've all expressed criticism. It is uh, you know, we've got right now we've got a secure, as you and I are talking, there is a Security Council emergency session that is going on and I am quite certain that the Chinese and Russians are expressing uh, their uh, disagreement uh, with what has been uh, ordered by the US and by Israel. But they're not prepared to do anything. In fact, I don't even believe that the Chinese will postpone the upcoming um, summit meeting of President Trump to visit Beijing in April on the back of these strikes.”

Trump said he would release the Epstein files and clean up corruption with two-tier justice, but has instead protected his own circle (excluding Howard Lutnick while including Bill and Hillary Clinton for testimony), demonstrating self-dealing.

“It's also clear that the Epstein files, where Trump said, "I'm going to clean this place up." And and we're going to release those files, um because there's a two-tier justice system. And and yet, you know, Bill and Hillary Clinton will be brought in to testify, but not Howard Lutnick. And so, he's protecting his own.”