
Capital, Politics and Power: Ken Griffin on the 2024 Election and What’s Next for the U.S. Economy
What this covers
Influential investor Ken Griffin sits down with Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss the intersection of capital, politics, and how financial markets and political dynamics are shaping the future of the U.S. economy, in this live interview from the 2024 New York Times DealBook Summit.
Interviewer: Andrew Ross Sorkin, the founder and editor at large of DealBook
Guest: Ken Griffin, the founder and C.E.O. of Citadel
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Griffin argues that regulatory relief and business-friendly policy under the Trump administration represent the primary economic opportunity for the United States, while secondary policy concerns like tariffs, cryptocurrency, and DOGE are less important than restoring American entrepreneurial dynamism and capital formation.
- Biden administration regulatory and litigation paralysis caused profound productivity losses that are now reversible
- The big picture of returning America to business as first-order principle outweighs second-order uncertainties about tariffs and policy specifics
- American exceptional wealth creation derives from flexible capital markets and labor markets that enable entrepreneurs to reach global markets instantly, which the Trump administration will enable
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Young entrepreneurs possess a key advantage: the belief that they can succeed against larger, more established competitors despite apparent odds.
“here's the power of the naess of Youth right like when I started I I got to go compete with solman brothers and Goldman Sachs and they look gigantic and so today if if you were going to start a fund today or do something today what would you do look look here's here's what entrepreneurs have okay they have this belief that although on any set of metrics do you have no chance I'm just going to go for it”
Making any cuts whatsoever will be politically very unpopular, a hard reality that budget-reduction efforts will have to face.
“he's going to have to hit the hard reality the hard truth that making cuts of any form whatsoever will be politically very unpopular”
The Biden Administration's regulatory regime caused businesses to suffer loss, not merely uncertainty, paralyzing American executives across industries and preventing them from focusing on creating value for customers and growing their businesses.
“it's not uncertainty it's loss okay loss... there's uncertainty and there's just flat out loss”
The bond market should get rattled if the federal government does not get its fiscal house in order, as bond markets serve as a disciplinary mechanism for fiscal responsibility.
“the bond market should get rattled if we don't get our get our house in order I mean that's what the bond market should do”
Modern technology enables brilliant ideas to reach billions of consumers globally instantaneously, a capability impossible 50 years ago, allowing great entrepreneurs to create fortunes by bringing innovations to market at planetary scale.
“we're in an interesting point in our economy where a brilliant idea can be brought to Market and overnight reach billions of consumers... the instantaneous reach that we have today from this conference like you reached the world today with this conference which is which is a a thought that 50 years ago was impossible”
The big macro trend in the world is movement of resources toward America because it is the most attractive investment destination, but identifying specific overvalued or undervalued companies and industries depends on comparative valuation analysis rather than macro trend-following.
“the big macro Trend in the world is more resources towards America that's the big Trend in the world because this is the most but there's not an industry or um a company or anything that you're saying this is where this is the direction of travel folks yeah there's here's the challenge with with investing versus the economy okay the direction of travel the economy is Clear healthc Care is going to continue to be ever more important technology is going to continue to draw in resources and continue to revolutionize our our lives but the question is the valuation of these companies right as Investments have we fully reflected in a bright future or over reflected in a bright future”
Warren Buffett wrote that billions has become the new millions and that he didn't believe such fortunes would be attainable even to him when he was young
“Warren Buffett just wrote a letter I don't know if you saw it um he was talking about giving away more of his money and having his children do it for him and he wrote The Following and and it fascinated me um he said that um very early on in life I had confidence that I would become rich but in no way did I or anyone else dream of the fortunes that have become attainable in America during the last few decades he didn't believe it was going to happen even to him he said it's been mind-blowing beyond the imaginations of Ford Carnegie Morgan or even Rockefeller billions has become the new Millions”
The investment business has changed fundamentally over the last 30 years, with nearly 50% of assets now in passive vehicles at virtually no cost, but passive investing's efficiency premise depends on active management by firms like Citadel, Millennium, and Point72 to make markets efficient.
“has the investment business changed over the course of the last 30 years absolutely we have the enormous rise of passive investing almost almost 50% of all assets are now in passive vehicles at virtually no cost to investors but the premise of those Vehicles is that markets are efficient markets are efficient because of the active management of firms like Citadel and Millennium and 72 and and to be clear hundreds and hundreds of other very well-managed very capable hedge funds”
Over the last ~125 years, America has undergone a stunning economic transformation from roughly half the population involved in agriculture to a knowledge/service economy, enabling unprecedented wealth creation and concentration.
“here's here's here's the amazing part of American History roughly 125 years ago almost half of all America was involved in agriculture like the the transformation of our economy over over 12 decades has been stunning”
Griffin acknowledges FOMO (fear of missing out) as a universal aspect of human psychology that makes people regret not buying appreciating assets.
“I own mutual funds I'm not allowed so I I missed out too that's unfortunate it is unfortunate so I mean of course I wish I'd bought something that trades at a 100 times the price it traded at a few years ago right we all we all have fomo it's just Universal it's part of human psychology”
Every president is politically pressured to push back against the Federal Reserve when it makes tough decisions like raising rates, but the Fed's role requires making difficult decisions that the body politic is often afraid to make.
“of course every president wants to push back on the FED when they're making tough decisions and they'll have to push back not only like like just as a political matter you can't look at the FED raising rates destroying jobs we need to deal with inflation and go like Kudos I'm so excited about that as the President right like no one expects you to take on that role the part of the FED chairman role is to make the really tough decisions that the body politics often afraid to make”
The investment business is fundamentally a research job: gathering information, drawing conclusions, understanding business models and products, and identifying which elements are not reflected in stock prices.
“my job is fundamentally it's a research job it's like you said it's gathered information it's dra conclusions it's understanding business models it's understanding products and it's understanding which elements of those are not reflected in the price of stocks”
Making cuts to the baseline budget and government spending will be politically very unpopular, creating challenges for Elon Musk and the Trump administration's ability to achieve deficit reduction
“he's going to have to hit the hard reality the hard truth that making cuts of any form whatsoever will be politically very unpopular”
The independence of the Federal Reserve is extraordinarily important to the sanctity of the dollar, and Griffin has been publicly defending Fed Chair Jay Powell from Trump over the years because Fed independence is crucial to preservation and strength of the economy
“the independence of the Federal Reserve is extraordinarily important to the sanctity of the dollar all right all right I've been publicly on the record defending Paul Visa Trump over the years not just in recent months but over the years because I truly believe that the independence of the FED whether it's from president Trump or any former president is incredibly important to the preservation and strength of our economy”
Every president wants to push back on the Fed when making tough decisions, but the political reality is that a president cannot publicly embrace Fed rate hikes that destroy jobs, even though the Fed Chair's role includes making tough decisions the body politic fears
“of course every president wants to push back on the FED when they're making tough decisions and they'll have to push back not only like like just as a political matter you can't look at the FED raising rates destroying jobs we need to deal with inflation and go like Kudos I'm so excited about that as the President right like no one expects you to take on that role the part of the FED chairman role is to make the really tough decisions that the body politics often afraid to make”
Crony capitalism is unfair to the American taxpayer, American consumer, and future generations when government picks winners and losers using taxpayer dollars
“it is truly unfair to the American taxpayer and the American Consumer and future Generations when we start playing favorites in Washington which taxpayer dollars picking winners and losers”
Young entrepreneurs with belief that they can succeed despite having no competitive advantages on paper can find ways to win against larger competitors through outthinking and outworking them
“entrepreneurs have okay they have this belief that although on any set of metrics do you have no chance I'm just going to go for it do you think Elon mus thought he could beat the big car companies just like as a matter of first order principles no but I'm going to outthink at work put better people together I'm going to find a way like your entrepreneurs find a way to make it happen”
Roughly 125 years ago, almost half of all Americans were involved in agriculture, and the transformation of the economy over 12 decades has been stunning
“roughly 125 years ago almost half of all America was involved in agriculture like the the transformation of our economy over over 12 decades has been stunning”
A brilliant idea can now be brought to market and overnight reach billions of consumers globally, enabling instantaneous reach that was impossible 50 years ago
“a brilliant idea can be brought to Market and overnight reach billions of consumers in fact think about the instantaneous reach that we have today from this conference like you reached the world today with this conference which is which is a a thought that 50 years ago was impossible”
Uncertainty erodes capital formation, and tariff policy creates genuine uncertainty that hasn't been resolved
“I think that we are we are literally months or years away from knowing where that lands and to be clear that uncertainty does erode Capital formation it does there's no doubt about it”
Crony capitalism—picking winners and losers with taxpayer dollars—is a profound worry both under the Biden and Trump administrations, and the country needs the president, House, Senate, and Judiciary to push back against it.
“one of the great great worries that I do have whether it's about this Administration or the prior Administration has been the increase in crony capitalism in the United States it is truly unfair to the American taxpayer and the American Consumer and future Generations when we start playing favorites in Washington which taxpayer dollars picking winners and losers”
If billionaires should not exist, the logical alternative is that everyone becomes poor, which Griffin rejects, arguing instead that he prefers a capitalist economy where people prosper rather than a system like Venezuela's.
“but we can't we we can just all be poor but that's that's the fundament I don't know if that's what he's suggesting either I'm just wondering what you think of the disparity this is sort of the problem with with with where he is a many issues is he doesn't understand the consequences of his actions we can just all be poor I'd rather not be poor and everyone in this room I'd rather not be poor and our country rather not be Venezuela”
The flexibility of the American capital system and labor markets are a big part of why Americans have such high average standard of living and why American children have such opportunity, compared to lethargic, disappearing Europe.
“I can't emphasize enough and you want to move away from this the flexibility of the American Capital system and the American labor markets is a big part of the story of the standard of living in our country there's no there is no country to speak of where people have both on average such a high standard of living and children on average have such opportunity”
Markets are efficient because of active management by firms like Citadel, Millennium, 72, and hundreds of other well-managed hedge funds that do rigorous research
“the premise of those Vehicles is that markets are efficient markets are efficient because of the active management of firms like Citadel and Millennium and 72 and and to be clear hundreds and hundreds of other very well-managed very capable hedge funds D1 so on so forth like these are really well-run firms that do really good research”
The Federal Reserve's independence from political pressure is extraordinarily important to the sanctity of the dollar and the strength of the American economy.
“the independence of the Federal Reserve is extraordinarily important to the sanctity of the dollar all right”
Scott Bessent and Trump have discussed potentially eroding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with Bessent proposing a 'shadow Fed chair' who would be nominated to advise on Fed policy to influence market expectations about future Fed leadership
“Scott Besson and and uh president-elect Trump have talked about potentially eroding the independence of the Federal Reserve we're going to have drone Powell here a little bit later this afternoon and one of the things that Scott Bon has talked about openly is this idea of creating what he calls a shadow Fed chair somebody who would be nominated to the FED even though they wouldn't be on the the fed and that somehow the the markets therefore would would undermine whatever the FED is doing in the moment because uh the the markets and investors would look past it to whoever they think the next fed share is going to be”
The shareholder vote on Elon Musk's Tesla compensation package passed twice, but the Delaware Supreme Court overturned it, exemplifying judicial overreach that contradicts shareholder democracy.
“the shareholders voted effectively that they twice to give him the pay package and the state of Delaware um where that company was incorporated said no not acceptable”
Griffin once bid $8 million at a Robin Hood event for a Blue Origin flight to space, and donated the seat to a schoolteacher rather than using it himself.
“a couple of years ago I don't know if you uh remember this uh you bid at a Robin Hood event on uh a seat on a blue origin flight to space you paid $8 million for it do you remember this I do and you gave the seat up to a school teacher”
Citadel Securities handles nearly a quarter of all US stock market trading volume every single day, making Ken Griffin potentially the most consequential single individual in financial markets.
“Citadel Securities business now handles nearly a quarter a quarter of all trading volume in the US Stock markets every single day”
Citadel Securities handles nearly a quarter of all trading volume in the US stock markets every single day
“Citadel Securities business now handles nearly a quarter a quarter of all trading volume in the US Stock markets every single day”
Griffin paid $8 million at a Robin Hood event to bid on a Blue Origin flight to space and gave the seat to a school teacher, demonstrating philanthropic values around space access
“you bid at a Robin Hood event on uh a seat on a blue origin flight to space you paid $8 million for it do you remember this I do and you gave the seat up to a school teacher”
The Trump administration will have to clean up the fiscal mess left by Biden, and as the federal fiscal house is put in order, that will create other complications in the economy that both the legislative branch and Fed will have to navigate
“this administration's going to have to clean up that mess so he's had a really tough no- win job over the last few years and therefore I mean some people people think he he's landed either landed the plane or it's a soft Landing or we're hovering above the ground you can look at the stock market now the the the short run feels good but as Scott has said and I and I plot him for this we have to put our fiscal house in order and as we put the federal fiscal house in order that's going to have other complications in terms of our economy that both the legislative branch and the fed's going to have to navigate through”
The investment business has changed enormously over the last 30 years with the rise of passive investing, which now comprises almost 50% of all assets at virtually no cost to investors
“has the investment business changed over the course of the last 30 years absolutely we have the enormous rise of passive investing almost almost 50% of all assets are now in passive vehicles at virtually no cost to investors”
The investing business is increasingly bifurcated between large firms like Citadel, Millennium, 72, and Jane Street with scale advantages, versus individual founders starting new firms, with a genuine question about whether small founders can compete against the big players
“there's really um sort of two models rolling right now there's yours uh and I'd put you and maybe Millennium and uh maybe you put a 72 and maybe a Jane Street in this kind of category I don't know where youd put and then there's individuals who are having who have their own own firms and there's a big question mark about whether we can all play effectively against the bigger guys right”
Tariffs and other policy uncertainties are secondary concerns compared to the primary benefit of regulatory relief; deregulation is first-order policy while tariff policy is second-order.
“you're missing the big picture that's not even close to the biggest issue... the biggest issue in the United States is that America's open for business again”
The Biden Administration's regulatory and litigation-induced paralysis is over, and this represents the most important first-order issue for the Trump administration, more significant than second-order policy questions like tariffs
“the biggest issue in the United States is that America's open for business again the endless amount of regulatory and uh litigation induced paralysis from the buy Administration is over it's over”
The President, House, Senate, and Judiciary must play their role in pushing back against crony capitalism, which Griffin identifies as one of his great worries in both the Trump and Biden administrations
“what we have to have what we have to hope for is the president the house the Senate the Judiciary all play their role in pushing back against crony capitalism and one of the great great worries that I do have whether it's about this Administration or the prior Administration has been the increase in crony capitalism in the United States”
Union leader Sean Fain's position that billionaires should not exist reflects misunderstanding of consequences; the alternative is that everyone is poor, which Fain likely doesn't intend but which follows from the logic
“Sean Fain who unfortunately as we mentioned earlier is ill and was going to be here he says billionaires should not exist but they just it just shouldn't even exist now I you're a capitalist by the way I'm a capitalist what do you think do think that we can just all be poor no but we can't we we can just all be poor but that's that's the fundament I don't know if that's what he's suggesting either I'm just wondering what you think of the disparity this is sort of the problem with with with where he is a many issues is he doesn't understand the consequences of his actions we can just all be poor I'd rather not be poor”
The flexibility of the American capital system and American labor markets is a big part of the story of the standard of living in the country, with no other country offering both high average standard of living and such opportunity for children
“the flexibility of the American Capital system and the American labor markets is a big part of the story of the standard of living in our country there's no there is no country to speak of where people have both on average such a high standard of living and children on average have such opportunity”
Massive funds have access to information that allows them to spread information costs across investors, creating a business model advantage that small funds don't have
“there's these sort of massive funds that have access to all sorts of uh information I'm not suggesting uh illegally having access to information I'm just suggesting that there's these sort of huge teams that can pass off uh their costs of getting a lot of this information uh to their investors it's just a different business than it was 10 or 20 years ago”
Without thoughtful change to the trajectory of entitlements, it will be very difficult to squeeze numbers in the trillions of dollars out of the baseline budget, particularly because interest expense has increased so profoundly over the last eight years.
“I think that without a thoughtful change in the trajectory of entitlements it'll be very hard to squeeze numbers and the trillions of dollars out of the Baseline budget and in particular because we've increased interest expense in such a profound way over the last over like the last eight years”
Europe is lethargic compared to the United States, with declining birth rates, poor economic growth, horrific per capita performance, and a pervasive lack of optimism about the future.
“go to Europe it's lethargic compared to the United States and it's a continent that's that's in every sense the word disappearing their birth rates are a challenge their econom is not growing their per capita numbers are horrific the sense of optimis in the future is not there”
The Trump administration will have to clean up the fiscal mess left by Biden, and in putting the federal fiscal house in order, complications will emerge that both the legislative branch and the Fed will have to navigate.
“this administration's going to have to clean up that mess so he's had a really tough no- win job over the last few years and therefore I mean some people people think he he's landed either landed the plane or it's a soft Landing or we're hovering above the ground you can look at the stock market now the the the short run feels good but as Scott has said and I and I plot him for this we have to put our fiscal house in order and as we put the federal fiscal house in order that's going to have other complications in terms of our economy that both the legislative branch and the fed's going to have to navigate through”
The bond market should get rattled if the Trump administration doesn't get the fiscal house in order, as this is what the bond market should do as a mechanism for enforcing fiscal discipline
“the bond market should get rattled if we don't get our get our house in order I mean that's what the bond market should do”
Griffin's business is fundamentally a research job involving gathering information, drawing conclusions, understanding business models and products, and identifying which elements are not reflected in stock prices
“my job is fundamentally it's a research job it's like you said it's gathered information it's dra conclusions it's understanding business models it's understanding products and it's understanding which elements of those are not reflected in the price of stocks”
Lena Khan, as FTC chair under Biden, played a profound role in reducing and eroding American productivity through regulatory overreach.
“Lena Khan seems to have like missed the entire economic section in her college experience because the ex the the role that she played in in really reducing and eroding American productivity was profound was profound”
Jay Powell has had one of the worst Fed chair jobs possible because the Biden Administration's reckless fiscal spending put the country on an unprecedented inflationary path that Powell then had to clean up.
“Paul's had one of the worst jobs you could have because the the Biden Administration in their Reckless fiscal spending put this country on an inflationary path that was unprecedented In Our Lifetime and he's had to deal with cleaning up the mess of that fiscal Large Ass”
Scott Bessent being selected as Treasury Secretary may erode Federal Reserve independence through proposals for a shadow Fed chair who would undermine current Fed decisions.
“Scott Besson and and uh president-elect Trump have talked about potentially eroding the independence of the Federal Reserve... Scott Bon has talked about openly is this idea of creating what he calls a shadow Fed chair somebody who would be nominated to the FED even though they wouldn't be on the the fed and that somehow the the markets therefore would would undermine whatever the FED is doing in the moment”
The stock market is flying because corporate America faces a better economic outlook post-election due to regulatory relief and business confidence recovery, but the bond market has not clearly signaled alarm and may be conveying different information about future growth and inflation.
“there's no doubt like let's just go back to the opening set of commentary for Corporate America it's a better world today than it was before the election”
Griffin was one of the five largest Republican donors in the most recent election cycle, just behind Elon Musk, despite expressing reservations about Trump during the campaign.
“he is also a force in American politics he was one of the five largest donors in the Republican party this last cycle just behind Elon Musk”
Ken Griffin was one of the five largest donors to the Republican party in the 2024 cycle, positioned just behind Elon Musk, but did not donate to Trump himself, stating in October he was uncertain and would not vote 'with a smile on my face.'
“he was one of the five largest donors in the Republican party this last cycle just behind Elon Musk”
Trump's background in real estate creates a different negotiating dynamic than other fields—real estate transactions are one-off deals unlikely to involve repeat interactions, whereas trading stocks or bonds involves ongoing counterparty relationships, making Trump's negotiating style more transactional.
“the president comes from a a field real estate where the the Norms of negotiation are often different that we see for example in in trading stocks or bonds right right in real estate you buy a building every couple of years every couple months you'll probably never deal with the seller again mhm it creates a different negotiating Dynamic and tension than with somebody that you do business with each and every day”
Jay Powell has had one of the worst jobs possible because the Biden Administration's reckless fiscal spending put the country on an unprecedented inflationary path that Powell has had to clean up
“Paul's had one of the worst jobs you could have because the the Biden Administration in their Reckless fiscal spending put this country on an inflationary path that was unprecedented In Our Lifetime and he's had to deal with cleaning up the mess of that fiscal Large Ass”
FTC Chair Lena Khan's regulatory approach profoundly reduced and eroded American productivity by her role in the Biden Administration
“Lena Khan seems to have like missed the entire economic section in her college experience because the ex the the role that she played in in really reducing and eroding American productivity was profound was profound”
Europe is lethargic compared to the United States and is disappearing in every sense, with challenges in birth rates, non-growing economy, horrific per capita numbers, and lack of optimism in the future
“go to Europe it's lethargic compared to the United States and it's a continent that's that's in every sense the word disappearing their birth rates are a challenge their econom is not growing their per capita numbers are horrific the sense of optimis in the future is not there”
Griffin prefers America to Venezuela, using Venezuela as shorthand for the consequences of anti-capitalist policies
“I'd rather not be poor and everyone in this room I'd rather not be poor and our country rather not be Venezuela”
Crypto's value, despite Griffin's skepticism, may derive from intangible factors: people take joy in opposing state power, and the 2024 election demonstrated Americans want agency in their lives, which crypto represents as an alternative to government control.
“do you think eventually then because you've said that a lot that what what problem does it solve that you problems to solve does it does therefore do you say this whole thing is some crazy speculative bubble that ends badly the way Warren Buffett says or do you say it could just live up live up in these these numbers and makes a lot of sense so the question is is how much has this has has this structurally captured the zit of the world just you know what do you think I don't know I don't know I think part of this is you know going back to why did people vote for Trump they want to get away from the yoka government when so therefore maybe it has a future it may have a future do you have to remember that that an asset like this an intangible asset like this its value derives from intangible aspects right part of being a community part of having the sense of like I I'm stand opposed to the power of the state right right people take take joy in that and I I think that that one of the things that we did see over the course of this election cycle is the American people saying I want to have agency in my life and crypto is part of that”
The Trump administration's core vision—an America of freedom, prosperity, strength, and respect—is the big picture that matters most, and this vision resonates across the entire country regardless of policy details.
“the big idea that he's portrayed which is that America can be a country that's exceptional that this is a country where you can have a better life this is a country where you can have agency over your decisions those values resonate with the entire country”
California's attempt to put EV subsidies in place for every company except Tesla is incomprehensibly appalling and represents crony capitalism.
“look at California trying to put in place EV subsidies for every company but Tesla I mean how incomprehensibly appalling is that”
Having extraordinarily competent, capable, and brilliant people advising the president is better than not having them in the White House, and this is preferable to prior eras when such figures weren't in government
“we have somebody who's extraordinarily competent capable and Brilliant helping advise the president of the United States we go back to the good old days when people like that weren't in the white house I'll take I'll take Elon in the White House now”
The Polymarket founder (Shane MacLaurin) is a product builder rather than a trader, and he believes it's inevitable that markets on everything will emerge, and this is exciting rather than problematic.
“I'm a product Builder I I can't say I'm much of a Trader but um I do think it's inevitable that there'll be markets on everything and uh it's it's exciting that you know that's flourishing and you know it's not it's not a bad thing in my opinion”
American world leadership involves managing relationships beyond tariff threats, such as directing Hamas to release hostages, which carries more significance than trade posturing.
“there is no doubt the world looks to America for leadership and although we may do things such as threaten Mexico or Canada with tariffs that's like small ball compared to the role that the world's looking to us for when we tell Hamas release the hostages by the start of the presidency that resonates with the world”
The Polymarket founder believes large finance firms' dismissiveness of prediction markets represents a missed opportunity, and that small markets can become very large—echoing Griffin's own startup philosophy.
“it's not it's not a bad thing in my opinion that the the biggest Finance people are uh are maybe a bit dismissive or think it's too small yet that that's continued opportunity for us I think like uh like Ken said where it's the naive of uh of Youth and Entrepreneurship it's the the opportunities that may seem small that can end up being really big tomorrow”
Paintings with material costs of ~$35 (canvas $15 + oil paint $20) trade for tens of millions of dollars, paralleling cryptocurrency's speculative nature and raising questions about asset valuation based on intangible factors.
“I own canvases covered with oil canvas probably cost 15 bucks the oil pain probably cost $20 that's $35 sort of net cost some of these paines trade for tens of millions of dollars who am I to judge crypto”
Markets on everything are inevitable and their flourishing is positive.
“I do think it's inevitable that there'll be markets on everything and uh it's it's exciting that you know that's flourishing and you know it's not it's not a bad thing in my opinion”
Griffin acknowledges that words matter and has concerns that Trump's precision in language and transparency of thought could be tighter, despite supporting the broader vision Trump is conveying about American exceptionalism, freedom, and prosperity.
“words matter I would think okay so that's why I'm curious if they matter to you though no of course they do right and that that goes part of you know why there's not a smile on my face I wish the Precision in words was tighter I wish the thoughts he was trying to convey were more transparent and clear and well understood”
Mark Rowan (Apollo Global Management) was Griffin's preferred choice for Treasury Secretary because leaders who can run large organizations are particularly important in advisory roles to the president
“Mark Rowan knows how to run a large organization and I think that you know from my perspective people around the president that have the ability to run large organizations that's a really important skill”
Trump's negotiation style comes from his real estate background, where one deals with sellers episodically and never again, creating a different negotiating dynamic than sectors like trading where relationships are ongoing and repeated
“the president comes from a a field real estate where the the Norms of negotiation are often different that we see for example in in trading stocks or bonds right right in real estate you buy a building every couple of years every couple months you'll probably never deal with the seller again mhm it creates a different negotiating Dynamic and tension than with somebody that you do business with each and every day”
An intangible asset like crypto derives its value from intangible aspects including community and sense of standing opposed to state power, which provides a basis for valuation beyond speculation
“do you have to remember that that an asset like this an intangible asset like this its value derives from intangible aspects right part of being a community part of having the sense of like I I'm stand opposed to the power of the state right right”
The relationship between Elon Musk and President Trump, including their frequent contact at Mar Lago and perceptions of co-presidency, presents a risk of crony capitalism—where government favors certain businesses over competitors based on personal relationships rather than policy merit.
“how do you feel about that relationship um and how do you think other business folks should think about it”
Griffin wants world leadership from America, particularly on hard issues like Hamas releasing hostages, which resonates globally more than tariff threats
“the world looks to America for leadership and although we may do things such as threaten Mexico or Canada with tariffs that's like small ball compared to the role that the world's looking to us for when we tell Hamas release the hostages by the start of the presidency that resonates with the world”
The fundamental difference between uncertainty and loss is that uncertainty is manageable but loss represents actual foregone value, and this distinction is crucial for understanding Biden-era regulatory impact
“it's not uncertainty it's loss okay there's there's there's uncertainty and there's just flat out loss”
Healthcare and technology will continue to attract resources and revolutionize lives, but the real question is whether valuations of these companies already reflect their bright futures or whether they are overvalued
“the direction of travel the economy is Clear healthc Care is going to continue to be ever more important technology is going to continue to draw in resources and continue to revolutionize our our lives but the question is the valuation of these companies right as Investments have we fully reflected in a bright future or over reflected in a bright future where do you land on”
Trump initially hesitated to support Trump in the 2024 election due to Trump's personal strain from legal attacks and assassination attempts, which sometimes brought out negative behaviors.
“I think the president-elect has gone through just a tremendous amount of personal strain over the last few months I mean can you imagine both the endless attacks in the American court system and then literally an assassination attempt that was one in Off the Mark and yet he persevered through an election and in that moment in time I think we saw somebody who who was paying the price for that stress right right there's no doubt about it and it did not always bring out the best in him”
The big macro trend in the world is resources flowing toward America because it is the most [developed/capable], but the challenge with investing versus understanding the economy is determining whether valuations of companies like healthcare and technology have fully reflected or over-reflected a bright future
“the big macro Trend in the world is more resources towards America that's the big Trend in the world because this is the most but there's not an industry or um a company or anything that you're saying guys this is where this is the direction of travel folks yeah there's here's the challenge with with investing versus the economy okay the direction of travel the economy is Clear healthc Care is going to continue to be ever more important technology is going to continue to draw in resources and continue to revolutionize our our lives but the question is the valuation of these companies right as Investments have we fully reflected in a bright future or over reflected in a bright future”
It is inevitable that there will be markets on everything as prediction markets flourish, and this is not a bad thing, with opportunity for platforms like Polymarket as larger finance players remain dismissive
“I do think it's inevitable that there'll be markets on everything and uh it's it's exciting that you know that's flourishing and you know it's not it's not a bad thing in my opinion that the the biggest Finance people are uh are maybe a bit dismissive or think it's too small yet that that's continued opportunity for us”
Regulatory uncertainty under Biden was not mere uncertainty but actual loss to businesses, meaningfully different in magnitude and nature from the newer uncertainty around Trump tariffs
“I think we'll all agree it's not uncertainty it's loss okay loss there's there's uncertainty and there's just flat out loss”
Crypto might have a future because people who voted for Trump want to get away from the yoke of government, and this political sentiment could provide structural support for crypto value
“so the question is is how much has this has has this structurally captured the zit of the world just you know what do you think I don't know I don't know I think part of this is you know going back to why did people vote for Trump they want to get away from the yoka government when so therefore maybe it has a future it may have a future”
Trillions will become the new billions as wealth continues to concentrate among successful entrepreneurs in a globalizing economy with instant distribution mechanisms
“I imagine trillions will get to trillions soon I think Warren is Warren's very clever with his choice of words there's there's not that many billionaires as compared to millionaires”
The distinction between understanding 'the big picture' and 'getting caught up in the trivia' is that the big picture is regulatory relief and business confidence, while tariff threats and policy details are trivia that may never materialize.
“it's it's it's a difference between understanding the big picture and getting caught up in the trivia all right it's it's the force and the trees problem”
Griffin does not plan to enter the crypto/Bitcoin market despite its explosive recent price appreciation, because he remains uncertain about what problem it solves for the economy.
“what I don't care for about crypto is what problem does it solve for our economy”
Griffin has been publicly on record defending Jay Powell's independence across multiple administrations and timeframes, not just recently.
“I've been publicly on the record defending Paul Visa Trump over the years not just in recent months but over the years because I truly believe that the independence of the FED whether it's from president Trump or any former president is incredibly important”
American executives across telecommunications and consumer sectors report being 'smiling from ear to ear' about the ability to focus on creating value for customers rather than dealing with litigation and regulation under the new administration.
“when I'm with a group of American Executives whether it's from telecommunications it's from the consumer space they are whether they voted for Trump or for Harris from a perspective of building their business they are smiling from ear to ear because they know they can now focus on creating value for customers I'm creating jobs and growing their business and I'm prospering rather than having to deal with just an endless onslaught of pointless litigation and pointless regulation”
BRICS countries will not move away from the dollar over the next four years, and Trump will not seek retribution on them for trading in other currencies despite his public statements threatening tariffs on BRICS if they create alternative currencies
“it's not going to do it it's not going to happen the bricks aren't going to move away from the dollar when it's all done over the next four years and nor is he going to seek retribution on them for for trading in other”
California's attempt to create EV subsidies for every company but Tesla is incomprehensibly appalling as an example of government favoritism
“look at California trying to put in place EV subsidies for every company but Tesla I mean how incomprehensibly appalling is that”
Elon Musk is extraordinarily competent, capable, and brilliant, and his willingness to advise the president in a public service role demonstrates commendable commitment of time, though his success in achieving cost reductions will be difficult due to political opposition.
“here's here's what we have we have somebody who's extraordinarily competent capable and Brilliant helping advise the president of the United States... his willingness to to be in this role that involves such a commitment of his time in public service is something that I applaud and admire”
Griffin did not donate to Donald Trump in the 2024 election cycle but voted for him, and is happy with the outcome because Republicans took the House, Senate, and White House, enabling governance focused on American principles of strength and prosperity
“I do because the Republicans took the house the Senate and the White House and now we have a chance to govern we have a chance to govern an America that makes America work for the average American will return America back to a nation of princi principles of strength of prosperity and I'm excited about that possibility”
Trump's negotiation approach involves throwing out big bold positions to see what the other side does in response, as exemplified by his tariff threats to Canada and Mexico
“I'm willing to to throw out some big bold positions I'll see what the other side does in response to this so you'll see like the threat to the Canadian of the Mexicans about tariffs”
Words matter and Griffin wishes Trump's precision in words was tighter and thoughts more transparent and clear, but acknowledges the big idea Trump portrays—that America can be exceptional with better life and agency—resonates with the country
“words matter I would think okay so that's why I'm curious if they matter to you though no of course they do right and that that goes part of you know why there's not a smile on my face I wish the Precision in words was tighter I wish the thoughts he was trying to convey were more transparent and clear and well understood but the big idea that he's portrayed which is that America can be a country that's exceptional that this is a country where you can have a better life this is a country where you can have agency over your decisions those values resonate with the entire country”
Griffin preferred Mark Rowan for Treasury secretary because he knows how to run a large organization, which is an important skill from Griffin's perspective
“why did I like Mark Rowan Mark Rowan knows how to run a large organization and I think that you know from my perspective people around the president that have the ability to run large organizations that's a really important skill so it's it's easy to be excited about Mark”
Trump will not pursue tariffs against BRICS countries or seek retribution for trading in alternative currencies, despite his public statements, because such actions would not be economically feasible.
“it's not going to do it it's not going to happen the bricks aren't going to move away from the dollar when it's all done over the next four years and nor is he going to seek retribution on them for for trading in other”
Elon Musk is one of the great entrepreneurs of our lifetime, running Tesla and SpaceX at levels of excellence that very few companies can relate to.
“he is truly one of the great entrepreneurs of our lifetime I mean no ifs no ANS no butts he runs Tesla he runs SpaceX at a level of of Excellence that very few companies can even start to relate to”
Polymarket has successfully built an international brand in just a few weeks on the back of a large bullish position and bet on Trump.
“congratulations to P markets for having you know built such an international brand in just a few weeks in the back of of that very large position and bet they had on the prot Trump side”
When Griffin started Citadel, competitors like Salomon Brothers and Goldman Sachs looked gigantic, but he was able to compete, showing that scale advantages at founding are not determinative of success
“when I started I I got to go compete with solman brothers and Goldman Sachs and and they look gigantic and so today if if you were going to start a fund today or do something today what would you do”
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have appreciated dramatically (trading at 100x prior prices), making retrospective criticism about not buying them a matter of universal FOMO
“of course I wish I'd bought something that trades at a 100 times the price it traded at a few years ago right we all we all have fomo it's just Universal it's part of human psychology”
Griffin withheld support from Trump during the campaign, stating in October that he had not decided to support Trump and would vote for him without a smile on his face, but ultimately voted for Trump over Harris because Trump represented the better policy outcome for America.
“I have not support to Donald Trump I'm so torn on this one you said I know who I'm going to vote for but it's not with a smile on my face”
Griffin's hesitation about Trump stemmed from observing that Trump had gone through tremendous personal strain including endless attacks in the American court system and a near-assassination attempt, and that this stress did not always bring out the best in him
“I think the president-elect has gone through just a tremendous amount of personal strain over the last few months I mean can you imagine both the endless attacks in the American court system and then literally an assassination attempt that was one in Off the Mark and yet he persevered through an election and in that moment in time I think we saw somebody who who was paying the price for that stress right right there's no doubt about it and it did not always bring out the best in him”
Elon Musk is truly one of the great entrepreneurs of our lifetime, runs Tesla and SpaceX at a level of excellence very few companies can relate to, and Griffin applauds and admires his willingness to commit time to public service via the DOGE role despite uncertainty about success
“he is truly one of the great entrepreneurs of our lifetime I mean no ifs no ANS no butts he runs Tesla he runs SpaceX at a level of of Excellence that very few companies can even start to relate to and I think that his willingness to to be in this role that involves such a commitment of his time in public service is something that I applaud and admire”
Prediction markets like Polymarket have built an international brand in just a few weeks on the back of a large position bet on the Trump side of the 2024 election
“I congratulations to P markets for having you know built such an international brand in just a few weeks in the back of of that very large position and bet they had on the prot Trump side”
American executives across telecommunications and consumer sectors are now smiling because they can focus on creating value for customers, creating jobs, and growing businesses rather than dealing with endless litigation and regulation under the Biden Administration
“when I'm with a group of American Executives whether it's from telecommunications it's from the consumer space they are whether they voted for Trump or for Harris from a perspective of building their business they are smiling from ear to ear because they know they can now focus on creating value for customers I'm creating jobs and growing their business and I'm prospering rather than having to deal with just an endless onslaught of pointless litigation and pointless regulation”
From a policy perspective, Trump was clearly the better choice for America between the two candidates.
“between the two candidates I think this was clearly from a policy perspective the best outcome from America”
Griffin has asked 'what problem does crypto solve for our economy?' as a test of whether it represents fundamental value or speculative excess, and this question shapes his skepticism.
“what I don't care for about crypto is what problem does it solve for our economy do you think eventually then because you've said that a lot that what what problem does it solve that you problems to solve does it does therefore do you say this whole thing is some crazy speculative bubble”
The Republican party won the White House, the Senate, and the House in the 2024 election, creating an opportunity to govern.
“because the Republicans took the house the Senate and the White House and now we have a chance to govern”
Sean Fain (UAW leader) argues billionaires should not exist, but this position does not address the consequences of redistribution or the alternative outcomes it would produce.
“Sean Fain who unfortunately as we mentioned earlier is ill and was going to be here he says billionaires should not exist but they just it just shouldn't even exist now”
The stock market has been performing well recently (flying), though the bond market may be sending a different signal.
“right now the the stock market is flying flying the bond market may be saying something else”
Between the two candidates, Trump was clearly the better policy outcome for America from a policy perspective
“you voted for him so you are happy that this was the outcome look I think that between the two candidates I think this was clearly from a policy perspective the best outcome from America”
FOMO (fear of missing out) is universal and part of human psychology, with everyone having regrets about what they missed or didn't buy
“we all we all have fomo it's just Universal it's part of human psychology like there's always what do we miss out on right”
Ken Griffin is the founder and CEO of Citadel
“Ken Griffin is here he is the CEO founder of Citadel”
Citadel hedge fund manages about $65 billion in assets under management
“his hedge fund manages about $65 billion in assets under management”
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are flying right now as investments, and Griffin acknowledges he does not own them despite their recent performance
“one of the other things that is flying right now I mean flying is Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies really”
Griffin is not interested in going to space tomorrow because he has three little kids and current family priorities
“I have three little kids I don't need to go tomorrow”
If billions is the new millions, then trillions will get there soon, suggesting continued wealth concentration and the emergence of new orders of magnitude in personal fortunes.
“the question is if if billions is the new Millions I imagine trillions will get to trillions soon”
Griffin has no interest in operating prediction markets like Polymarket and it is not on Citadel's to-do list.
“I don't you know it's not on our to-do list”
Griffin is not interested in Poly Market betting and it's not on his business to-do list, though he congratulates them on building a brand and executing a large Trump trade
“I I don't you know it's not on our to-do list but congratulations to P markets for having you know built such an international brand in just a few weeks in the back of of that very large position and bet they had on the prot Trump side”
Sorkin is a journalist who owns mutual funds and is not allowed to own individual securities, which prevented him from investing in crypto
“that is true but you but you've been asked to judge crypto for a very long time and you've judged it by not buying it yes and what a mistake that's been so do you wish you had I I still I okay and and do you no no no I'm a journalist I I honestly I own mutual funds I'm not allowed”
Griffin is a terrible better and loses pretty much all the time, so he avoids betting, unlike professional traders who might excel at prediction markets.
“I'm a terrible better I lose pretty much all the time so I really don't bet”
Citadel may or may not currently hold Tesla shares (Griffin notes Citadel's positions change, and a recent 13F filing showed holdings several weeks prior to the conversation).
“Citadel I have no idea if we are today I I saw it on the 13f so I think so yeah but that was like weeks ago”
It must be amazing to have $50 billion at risk and still be okay, highlighting Elon Musk's extraordinary personal wealth concentration and risk exposure.
“I mean here's the only thing I will say it must be amazing to have $50 billion at risk and still be okay I mean can you just imagine that”
Warren Buffett's observation that 'billions is the new millions' reflects a clever rhetorical choice but understates the distinction: there are far fewer billionaires relative to millionaires, so the comparison is not one-to-one.
“I think Warren is Warren's very clever with his choice of words there's there's not that many billionaires as compared to millionaires it's kind of a it's kind of a throwaway line”
Griffin has ambitions to eventually go to space, saying he prefers 'when' (he gets to 98 years old) rather than 'if', but he will not go in the near term as he has three young children.
“when I get to 98 when if you get to 98 I i' like to go with when oh when when I I prefer when rather than if so it's when it's when it's when it's when okay so we're go on to Rocket yes but I'm not I'm not you know I have three little kids I don't need to go tomorrow”
The bond market has not actually said much over the last couple weeks despite the equity rally.
“I I don't think the Bond Market has actually said all that much over the last couple weeks”
Griffin has not had personal experience working with Scott Bessent, but a friend who is one of the most successful money managers sings Bessent's praises
“I don't I don't have a personal um experience with Scott one of my good friends who's one of the most successful money managers of all time sings his Praises”
Griffin is a terrible bettor who loses pretty much all the time and therefore doesn't bet much, meaning he has not benefited from prediction markets or political betting
“I'm a terrible better I lose pretty much all the time so I really don't bet sadly”
Griffin says he would like to go to space when he gets to age 98 if he makes it to that age, rather than going when young
“when I get to 98 when if you get to 98 I i' like to go with when oh when when I I prefer when rather than if so it's when it's when it's when it's when okay so we're go on to Rocket yes but I'm not I'm not you know I have three little kids I don't need to go tomorrow”