MacroVoices #386 Lyn Alden: Energy, Inflation & much more
What this covers
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Lyn Alden to the show to take a deep dive on energy, everything from crude oil to natural gas to shale depletion rates. And finally, uranium before moving on to talk in depth about inflation. https://bit.ly/3OyuKaI
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00:00 Intro 00:36 Macro Scoreboard 03:23 Feature Interview with Lyn Alden 45:40 Postgame – Post FOMC Trends 46:10 Crude Oil 48:40 S&P500 51:27 QQQ 53:06 VIX 54:03 DXY 55:27 Gold 57:04 Uranium
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Check out Nick's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/Optionfinity Join OptionFinity discord: https://discord.gg/Rvnsv6Y
Lyn Alden's background is a blend of engineering and finance. She began her career in the field of electronics engineering in the aviation industry, and eventually moved into engineering finance and management. In 2016, she founded Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, which provides financial research for retail and institutional investors with an emphasis on value investing with a global macro overlay. Her specialities include equity analysis, precious metals, and international macro comparisons including long-term currency fundamentals.
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Lynn Alden argues that energy and commodity assets are structurally underowned because supply constraints are tightening (shale depletion, lack of capex) while secular demand pressures (fiscal deficits, energy transition) persist, creating multi-year inflation risks and portfolio opportunities.
- U.S. shale oil production is peaking due to lack of capex investment and exhaustion of low-hanging fruit, while conventional production globally continues declining
- Energy companies treated recent price spikes as transitory rather than sustainable, preventing the capex cycle needed to offset supply depletion
- Structural fiscal deficits combined with energy supply tightness will drive waves of inflation even if rate hikes slow bank lending
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The late 1990s dot-com bubble and current AI rally share the same dynamic: the actual transformative technology may be real and impactful, but valuations are frontloaded and the market does an inconsistent job sorting which companies will actually capture market share—some will crash and never recover while others like Amazon will have long growth stories
“back in the.com bubble kind of the the you know looking back on it decades later what ended up being the case was that you know the the big vision for how a lot of the internet companies would would change our life ended up being true uh but of course the problem was that a lot of it was front loaded in terms of evaluation and the market did you know had a very inconsistent job of sorting out which companies were ultimately going to take the market share so ones that kind of you know blew up and crashed and never came back and other ones like Amazon that blew up crash and then of course had a very long growth story ahead of them so I I'm kind of viewing AI through a similar template”
Peak oil theory was not disproven; rather, the prediction that global conventional oil production would decline came true, but the peak oil crowd did not anticipate the US shale revolution, which offset decline elsewhere by raising US production from 5 to 13 million barrels per day
“the peak Oilers predicted was going to happen oil production went down and it went down substantially and it's going down exactly the way the peak Oilers predicted it was going to go down in the sense that it cannot be increased within those oil fields without finding new productive resources someplace what happened that the peak oil crowd didn't anticipate was the U.S Shale Revolution which made up for that we went from 5 million barrels a day to 13 million barrels A Day in the United States as the rest of the world went down by the same amount”
AI will lower the floor of skill required to use professional creator tools like Adobe Photoshop and engineering design software by handling details, making these tools accessible to 5x more people in the long run, unlocking long-term economic value even as current valuations are blown out of proportion
“basically the cost of certain types of business overhead the cost of certain types of legal overhead the cost of production I think basically you know right now we have all these different software packages like different Creator tools they could be things like Adobe Photoshop but they also could be various engineering design software and as we incorporate AI into more and more of those things it lowers the floor of skill to to you know get a workable usage out of it right so there's always going to be a case where more experienced operators of that software can can make more of it but by like uh obvious getting away a lot of the details of those tools it makes is Creator tools something that you know 5x people more will be used in the long run”
Most of the low-hanging fruit has been drawn from shale oil, making it no longer a big new source of energy production for the world; the easy growth and offsets to conventional oil decline are tapped out and won't be available going forward without significant capex cycles
“I think a lot of the low hanging fruit has already been drawn from Shale and now it's it's it's no longer this kind of big new source of energy production for the world that's where the majority of of growth was and now that's kind of tapped out and so you know a lot of this goes back to the point where I said before that a lot of these energy companies were conservative instead of uh you know aggressively taking their incoming cash flows”
Wholesale electrification of transportation requires not just more electric cars but a complete replacement of the gasoline energy distribution system with electrical wires—massive grid infrastructure buildout beyond what's typically discussed in EV transition narratives
“people Miss is how much grid updates you need if you want to Electrify things more right so they they kind of assume that if you just buy more electric cars that's what solved the problem but basically if we talk about a a wholesale shift towards more and more you know battery storage and electric cars and things like that you're basically saying this whole you know like gasoline transportation system we have built up all that energy distribution has to basically go over uh electrical wires now basically we would add that on to what we're already doing”
Historical inflation in developed markets comes in waves rather than straight lines; periods of central bank or government pushback (wage/price controls) create this multi-wave pattern, so deflation after one spike doesn't mean inflation is defeated
“if you look back at prior periods of uh inflation in developed markets normally it does come in waves so normally you don't just get one inflation Spike normally you get multiple inflation spikes because you have you know periods time where central banks are fighting back or some cases government officials are fighting fighting back with like uh you know pricing wage controls depending on the era and so this never really goes up in a straight line”
The natural gas convergence trade between U.S. and European/Japanese prices is a long-term trend requiring years for LNG export facilities to build, and its timing depends on weather patterns and political obstacles; it's less a six-month trade and more a structural trend to incorporate into long-term portfolio models
“I think that's a long-term position to be aware of uh you know a lot of these LNG export facilities take years to build and of course natural gas compared to oil and many other Commodities uh that transportation is a much larger and more complex part of it so natural gas is is less geographically fungible than you get with with oil... I I view that less as like a six-month trade and more as like a trend to be aware of”
A potential nuclear renaissance driven by energy security needs and slow oil production growth from developing nations like India could drive sustained uranium demand growth; even without a full renaissance, necessity and energy crises will likely lead to increased adoption of nuclear as energy source
“if we have increasingly a tougher time increasing our Global oil output while we still have ongoing growth from you know low oil you know Capital consumption places like India and other highly populated countries that are you know they just just like the rest of us they want to consume more energy per capita they want to develop more they want to have more material Comforts and as that demand continues um I think there's going to be a constant lookout for all types of different energy sources... necessity becomes the mother of you know either invention or in this case adoption which is that you know people get sick of having energy crises and they look around and say well here's an energy source”
Nvidia has no competitive moat in AI because it invented nothing related to artificial intelligence—it makes graphics cards that happen to be fast at running AI workloads due to the architecture of GPUs, but this is a technological accident that any competitor could replicate, yet the market has convinced itself Nvidia is driving AI innovation
“Nvidia has absolutely nothing to do with AI they make graphics cards and it just happens to be a detail of Technology an oddity of technology that just like cryptocurrency mining the computers inside the graphics card are better for these generative AI applications to run on and they work faster there and so that's why they're using them it's not like Nvidia was the one to invent any of this artificial intelligence technology I don't see any reason if you think about Warren Buffett's idea of a moat around a company I don't see anything Nvidia is doing to you know protect its market share and AI”
Without fixed energy supply and underlying capex cycle to address tight markets, the next time economic acceleration occurs (rising PMI) it will likely come with above-target inflation because the fundamental supply-side constraints haven't been resolved
“because the fundamental drivers have not been fixed the next time we have a rising PMI or you know basically broadly some degree of economic acceleration I do think it's uh pretty likelihood of coming with a side of inflation again because you know the underlying problems aren't there”
Global energy usage has only declined five times in the past 50-60 years—three times in the early 1980s, once in 2009, and once in 2020—meaning that many recessions do not result in energy consumption declines, and the assumption that any recession must cause oil to crash is based on recency bias from the unusual Great Recession and COVID lockdown.
“when you look at the past you know say 50 60 years of of total energy usage uh it's only gone down worldwide five years and three of them were in the early 80s one of them was 2009 and one of them was 2020. many recessions Global energy usage still goes up”
A classic 60/40 equity-bond portfolio is structured for disinflation as it benefits from bond yields declining, allowing equity valuations to expand; this structure is vulnerable if inflation returns in waves, making commodity exposure crucial protection
“if you if you think of a classic 60 40 portfolio it's very much geared towards disinflation so it benefits from bond yields going down that allows Equity valuations to structurally go higher and if we do enter a period of you know waves of inflation or on average above Target inflation especially if it's if it's more energy driven one of the ways to hedge all of your other otherwise disinflationary positions is to have some of that direct exposure”
The market is not very interest rate sensitive because most American homeowners have 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and many blue-chip corporations locked in low rates during the recent low-rate period, insulating them from ongoing rate hikes; pressure concentrates in commercial real estate, unprofitable tech, and constantly-issuing equity financed firms
“the market is not very interest rate sensitive so when you look at say the U.S market um you know homeowners mostly have 30 or fixed rate mortgages uh that's not the case for many other countries in the world so when you look at a spectrum of how much uh household debt the GDP different countries have and then what percentage that is fixed rate American households are relatively protected uh against that ongoing you know kind of rate hikes the same thing is true for a lot of um say Blue Chip corporations a lot of them use this opportunity to lower their lower their interest rates and extend their duration”
Because current inflation is primarily fiscal-driven rather than bank-lending driven, rate hikes targeting bank lending may not effectively combat inflation and can create recessions by attacking the wrong inflation mechanism
“basically what they're doing then is they're offsetting the real source of inflation which was fiscal driven inflation and certain supply side limits citations by saying well because that all was too high we're going to try to slow down Bank lending the problem is if that background fiscal ongoing deficit is still there”
Apple trades at over 30 times earnings with analyst consensus earnings estimates similar to CVS, yet Apple has experienced the same two-year earnings stagnation and slow forward growth as CVS, illustrating a massive valuation divergence driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental differences
“Apple versus CVS and these are just kind of two examples of of large cap stocks out there the funny thing is that analysts consent is for earnings estimates are actually not that different between the two companies they both had like a period of kind of two-year earning stagnation here they both have kind of slow forward growth basically they're both at the end of the day kind of value stocks if they're not exactly fast Growers but we see Apple trading at well over 30 times earnings”
Most market consensus on Fed policy holds that the Fed will deliver at most one more 25 basis point rate hike in 2023 before stopping, but this consensus underestimates recession risk and the potential for the Fed to continue hiking at a slower pace if it avoids the banking system stress that occurred in spring 2023
“what I'm seeing just in Twitter traffic and other notes emails and so forth coming across my desk is this continuing belief that okay what this means what it's all about is there could maybe be one more 25 basis point hike this year but it's impossible for any more than that and I don't understand Lynn why everybody there's this consensus idea that the FED has to stop hiking just because they almost completely collapsed the banking system as a result of their hiking I'm not sure that that's going to stop them”
Current fiscal deficits create a slow-burning stimulatory or stagflationary effect that isn't as immediate as stimulus checks or child tax credits but still maintains inflationary bias as structural background condition
“we have this larger backdrop of of just larger structural fiscal deficits and it's not as stimulative as things like you know stimulus checks or child care tax credits because it's it's it's not kind of filtering in from the from the bottom up but it still is this bad background kind of slower slower burning stimulatory effect or potentially stagflationary effect”
Lynn takes the 'under' on AI's ability to heavily impact the physical world—robotics and energy usage—in the investable time horizon, expecting software to surprise upside but physical-world impacts to be limited until new physics breakthroughs occur
“I I generally take the under on its ability to to heavily impact Us in the physical world so the impact on robotics the impact on energy usage at least until there's certain kind of you know new physics breakthroughs or things like that you know kind of this in this more investable time Horizon I don't really see it as super impactful for those more real world types of areas”
Post-pandemic recovery in U.S. rig count has tapped into drilled but uncompleted wells like drawing down inventory, and now that drilling has peaked (eight months ago) an 8-15 month lead time suggests U.S. oil production will peak at similar levels as before without a turnaround in drilling activity
“about seven months ago it shows that U.S recount peaked and it's been a little while since I made this chart so it's actually about eight months now I believe uh and when we look back at the prior to generally there's an 8 to 15 month lead time between drilling activity and between you know the top in overall U.S production uh and so you know if this is for kind of watching activity we should expect that in the months to follow unless we were to see some sort of turnaround that U.S oil production is probably going to Peak at a similar level as it did before”
Copper is the cleanest risk-reward among battery and transition metals because it's universal to all energy transition technologies regardless of which specific tech wins, whereas battery metals are subject to evolving efficiency improvements that reduce per-unit requirements
“I so I I've generally for that whole space I view copper as the cleanest risk reward um that's kind of like the one where it's no matter what technology ends up uh you know because things change over time they always they're getting more and more efficient at using less and less battery Metals for you know a given amount of energy storage and things like that but copper is the universal that's that's there in all of these different things”
1970s inflation was lending-driven with Baby Boomers entering home-buying years and Vietnam War spending, while 1940s inflation was virtually all fiscal-driven with banks not lending; current 2020s inflation combines large structural fiscal deficits with supply constraints, creating a stickier inflationary backdrop
“when people think of inflation they often think of the 70s and that was very much lending driven inflation so we had demographics the Baby Boomers were entering their home buying years uh year after year after year so they were taking out a lot of credit you had a lot of Bank lending inflation then of course you add to it you know the Vietnam War and the oil and bar goes was a very inflationary time whereas the 1940s virtually all the inflation was fiscal driven so Banks were not lending almost at all and most of the inflation was driven by a very large fiscal deficits”
Battery metals face gridlock: environmental advocates want green energy transition but also oppose mining, creating competing pressures that make it costly, time-consuming, and uncertain whether new battery metal projects will come online in workable timeframes, unlike copper which has universal demand.
“there's all sorts of environmental restrictions like you know for example people will say we don't want oil and gas we want battery metals and then they also will say oh but you you know mining is uh bad for the environment so you can't mine them and so we we kind of get into this gridlock position where it's it's very costly time consuming and you know always uncertain whether or not new projects are going to come on in a workable time frame”
Energy is underowned across the spectrum of commodities and equities because during the big oil price spike of last year, neither equity prices soared nor did management teams treat the spike as sustained; instead both investors and managers were conservative, using windfall profits for debt reduction and dividends rather than aggressive capital expenditure
“Energy's kind of been left for dead and that kind of Falls in line with what I was talking about before... even during the big price spike of oil last year a lot of the equities never really got over like um you know excited about it neither their stock prices really soared nor did their management teams kind of take those prices as though they were going to stay and so you saw very conservative Behavior both by investors and by management so investors were careful not to bid the prices up too high in management use a lot of the you know kind of the windfall profits they got from that period to pay down debt pay dividends do BuyBacks maintain their drilling rather than put it all back into the ground”
Lynn accurately called the peak in energy prices after the Ukraine invasion, predicting a decline to around $70 per barrel and then a subsequent rebound as supply constraints became apparent, and that call has played out successfully
“she was really prescient her call when Energy prices it just started to come off of their highs after the Ukraine Invasion she said look I think we're headed down to 70 dollars it's going to bottom around there someplace then we're headed straight back up well that's all played out”
With the VIX at 13 and expected daily moves at 0.7%, low volatility creates conditions where selling premium on the put side is risky; asymmetry of risk gets worse as markets go higher and volatility drops lower
“right now with the vix at around 13 the expected moves each day are about point seven percent roughly in Broad markets and as we've seen the past these lower levels often are met with violent Rises due to some Catalyst event that Catalyst event remains to be seen what it actually is but again selling premium right now especially on the put side is more risky I would say and it's probably smart to be cautious”
Lynn has been long uranium since autumn 2020 as a background structural trade because global consumption exceeds production and secondary stockpiles are constantly drawn down, with opaque supply that makes long-term fundamentals bullish especially versus other assets available to own
“I've been long uranium since Autumn of 2020 and it's something that I I've not tried to time it to specifically but it's something that I just keep as a background structural trade until the conditions uh forward are done and they're not yet uh and so basically we have a similar problem there as we have the oil in the sense that right now there's just not a lot of new Supply coming to Market if you look at the market now basically we consume more than we reproduce on a global basis and so we're constantly tapping into older secondary stockpiles”
Energy is valued as another market laggard alongside healthcare and other defensive sectors that have been left for dead, and together with technology representing extreme concentration risk, energy should be viewed as a 3-5 year structural opportunity given supply fundamentals.
“Energy is another one of those areas this time it's more cyclical value rather than defensive value but it's an area where even during the big price spike of oil last year a lot of the equities never really got over like um you know excited about it neither their stock prices really soared nor did their management teams kind of take those prices as though they were going to stay”
Copper is being held up better than expected and is still range-bound given stalled purchasing manager indices; until leading economic indicators show renewed growth, copper will likely remain contained, but once growth resumes, copper is positioned for multi-year gains given underinvestment in supply and environmental mining restrictions.
“I've been a little bit less optimistic on it than I have with energy with energy I've been able to I've been willing to kind of just stick with even with a potential recession call whereas copper I've been a little bit more careful to try to kind of wait for the cyclical timing to be a little bit more attractive and so far the price has held up a little bit better than I would have guessed and so I don't really view it as a bad position here you know I think basically until we have another period of renewed growth so let's say for example the purchasing managers in indices uh for many of the markets around World until they start turning back up I think copper is going to continue to be probably range bound but then once you do start get that that upturn I think much like energy copper is like a multi-multi-year story”
EIA crude oil inventory showed 600k barrel drawdown with no SPR drawdowns for second week, Cushing down 2.6 million barrels, gasoline down 786k, distillates down 245k, and U.S. production down 100k to 12.22 million barrels per day
“eia printed a drawdown of 600 000 barrels on crude oil inventory didn't bill for anything more out of the spr that's two weeks in a row of no drawdowns out of the spr hopefully we'll continue on that streak Cushing Oklahoma drawing Downs 2.6 million barrels that's another big draw down there gasoline drawing down 786 000 barrels to still it's drawing down 245 000 barrels U.S production ticking down a hundred thousand barrels to 12.2 2 million barrels”
Nvidia after its massive run-up has no margin of safety priced in and relies on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to actually make the chips, making it an unattractive investment for heavy concentration despite the company selling tremendous numbers of graphics cards over the next 10 years
“and we have to remember that they they rely on uh companies like Taiwan semi to actually make uh the chips at the end of the day and so I I don't really view Nvidia especially after this massive run-up as the place you want to be heavily concentrated uh and instead it's really you know there's a couple ways of looking at it”
Despite the Fed meeting on the recording date suggesting limited recession risk, broader leading economic indicators still suggest caution and potential for recession within the next 6-12 months; therefore, maintaining disinflation protection (cash, T-bills) is prudent even while structurally positioned for inflation longer-term.
“I know the FED meeting today basically the the fed's now saying that they don't really see the recession risk that they saw before but I still think that you know when we look at it at a broader range of leading economic indicators I I still think that we're kind of you do want to basically be prepared for that that choppiness for the next 6 to 12 months that I I think that basically you want to have some disinflation protection in your portfolio even if you're otherwise structurally thinking inflation long term”
Lynn leaned into Adobe early in the AI cycle because it hadn't experienced the valuation surge of Nvidia and would likely absorb AI technologies into its offering rather than be disrupted by them, but Adobe has since also run up significantly making its valuation less attractive despite this favorable competitive position
“one of the things I did early on was uh I leaned into a stock like Adobe for example because Adobe hadn't really run yet it had already kind of corrected from the the sugar high that we had a couple years ago and some of the early thesis around that would that would be that this would kind of just might disrupt a company like Adobe whereas it become it started to become more and more clear that adobe would probably absorb a lot of these Technologies they were already incorporating generative AI into their offering and they weren't really at the kind of the very high evaluation that Nvidia was but since I got into that one I mean that that stock just just you know kind of gone straight up too and so I wouldn't really call that as having a ton of value left either”
The S&P 500 trend is up and strong despite not making fundamental sense; analyst John Hussman (who called 2000 and 2008 bubbles) says a 64-point full decline would be needed to return to historically normal valuations, suggesting an abrupt reversal is imminent
“the trend is up the trend is strong and the trend makes absolutely no sense to me personally John hussman who called the 2000 and 2008 bubbles also says this trend doesn't make sense to him he says it would take a full 64 down from here in order to set up a return to historically normal valuations of buy the dip opportunity so to speak so according to John husband Shirley an Abrupt change of direction is imminent”
Dollar weakness remaining below 102 with breakdown to key 2023 Q1-Q2 support lows signals potential downtrend continuation; if dollar weakness persists to 98 or lower, this would create bullish tailwind for commodity and cross assets
“whether or not the dollar remains down here below 102 all of those key lows at the through the first and second quarters of the Year established a support that was broken and if the dollar here remains in this downtrend and we see breakdowns maybe down to 98 or even lower that can spell obviously weakness for the dollar but it would certainly be a bullish Tailwind for a number of the different cross assets that tend to benefit from US dollar weakness”
Gold's correction bottom may already be in at $1900 but Fed could prove more hawkish than market expects with surprise rate hikes, which could push gold back into the $1800s; until hawkish surprises occur, the bullish chart pattern holds
“since I have a big long position on it's nice to see the market looking like the bottom may already be in for this correction at 1900 but the reason I'm still skeptical is I think the FED is likely to prove more hawkish on rates than the market is expecting just a couple more surprise hawkish rate hikes could shake the confidence out of this gold market and put us right back in the middle of the 1800s but that hasn't happened yet and until it does this chart's looking pretty bullish to me”
Gold has held near all-time highs across five years of data (2020, 2022, and 2023 peaks near $2000), establishing $2000 as clean round number resistance; a break above $2000 would draw money flows and create potential catalyst for testing all-time new highs
“I wanted to really capture almost five years of data on here and it really shows uh that 2020 and 2022 high of gold that was tested again this year just over two thousand so overall gold has held very close to its all-time highs and this 2000 level in my mind is is a nice clean round number to watch if for whatever reason gold is given that push above that 2 000 level it will draw some money flow and that's going to be a real interesting moment to see whether or not this is uh the period from which gold can make that press to all-time new highs”
Uranium stocks and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust continue to be well accumulated with good clean trend, having experienced a pullback from highs but now turning up; potential near-term targets are $17.50-$18 with longer-term $20 level to retest
“we see it upticked a little bit it obviously had a little bit of a deeper pullback than the u308 contract was trading at a bit of a discount but it's turning up in most uranium stocks actually continue to be well accumulated and in a good clean Trend it'll be interesting to see whether or not this uh sprot physical trust can get back toward the 17 half 18 level that were the highs of of this year and whether or not it sets up for a retest of that 20 level”
Crude oil futures broke above the 200-day moving average and faces resistance at the $80 round number and the 55-week moving average; a pullback to retest the breakout zone around $77 could be a healthy development if bulls defend the level
“the 55-week moving average at 79 spot 97 is co-located with round number resistance at eighty dollars so are we going to get above 80 that's what's holding us back right now I think probably so but I wouldn't be surprised if we go back and retest the breakout Zone that's the 200-day continuation moving average just around 77”
The agricultural commodity basket (DBA) with components like coffee, cocoa, and sugar outperforming while grains muddle suggests potential test of 52-week highs and potentially all-time highs if the entire basket breaks higher
“a lot of the grains like wheat and and corn remain muddled obviously off of their lows other key components of this uh like coffee and cocoa and sugar Futures continue to actually do very well and we see this pushing toward its 52-week high it'll be really interesting to see whether or not this entire commodity basket can actually push to all-time new highs it'll be certainly something that would start being talked about if it was underway”
The NASDAQ has not yet broken to a new all-time high like the S&P 500, which suggests divergence between large-cap and mega-cap index leadership; the NASDAQ call wall at 400 with all-time highs at 408-409 means modest resistance before potential all-time high break
“what's interesting though Nick is is that uh the NASDAQ has not broken yet to a higher high like the s p has from its previous week what are you watching before on the queues so interesting you mentioned that because right now the call wall is at 400 grid just above where we're at right now”
Lynn Alden investment strategy provides free material and low-cost paid subscriptions for retail and institutional investors; she is also authoring a book on monetary history called 'Broken Money' expected to release within a month.
“uh so yeah lynnal.com I provide investment research some of it's free material other other parts of it are low-cost paid subscriptions for for subscribers both retail and institutional investors and I'm also I've been working on a book on monetary history called broken money so people can check that out in a month or so as well and that will be on Amazon”