The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US
What this covers
Technology is rapidly changing how modern wars are being fought, and the United States needs to reevaluate its national security priorities to adapt. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to discuss the transformation of war, China’s calculus in Taiwan, and the biggest threats facing the US, both inside the border and abroad. Stavridis warns China is still intent on pursuing its expansionist goals and territorial claims in the South China Sea. He also thinks President Xi Jinping may be looking at Russia’s stalled Ukraine invasion, as well as the global reaction to it, and wondering whether military action in Taiwan is in China’s best interest. Stavridis predicts a “new triad” of warfare–unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and cyber special forces–will lead to armies around the world will shift their focus from personnel and artillery to unmanned systems and AI. While it will lead to reduced costs for traditional militaries, it’s also empowering terrorist groups and malefactors in an increasingly high-stakes game of asymmetrical warfare. Stavridis’ newest book, The Restless Wave, is out October 8.
Host: Ian Bremmer
Guest: James Stavridis
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Retired Admiral Jim Stavridis argues that US national security threats are increasingly internal (domestic terrorism, border security, cyber threats) alongside external threats, and that future warfare will shift from expensive conventional platforms toward a new triad of unmanned systems, cyber/AI, and special forces, fundamentally reshaping military strategy.
- Domestic terrorism, porous borders with malicious actors, and sophisticated cyber threats from China and Russia represent the most immediate US security challenges
- China's economic weakness and uncertain military capability make near-term Taiwan conflict unlikely despite strategic ambitions
- Ukraine demonstrates warfare is already shifting toward unmanned systems and AI-enabled operations rather than mass conventional forces
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Three primary domestic threat vectors face the United States: domestic terrorism (exemplified by recent assassination attempt on former president), threat actors crossing a porous southern border from Middle East, Latin America, and China, and sophisticated cyber activity from China and Russia.
“three things one domestic terrorism we just uh recently had an assassination attempt on the former president of the United States I think we're going to find that's an act of domestic terrorism... threat actors uh clearly we've seen Christopher Ray the head of the FBI back in uh July talking about all systems blinking red and he's talking about for example a very poorest Southern border with indications that Mal actors are moving people across from all over the world”
The Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan all have mutual defense treaties with the United States, but most Americans are unaware of these commitments while Chinese leadership is acutely aware of their implications.
“I think a lot of Americans think of the obligations we have to our NATO partners and they could most Americans can tell you that we have a mutual defense treaty with Japan or Australia I think very few Americans also South Korea also however Thailand and the Philippines not a lot of Americans are aware those are Rock Solid Mutual defense treaties so we may not know it here in the populace of the United States but I assure you the Chinese are well aware of it”
Ian Bremmer notes that of all potential conflicts, China is the one where the Harris and Trump administrations have been most aligned, making it the easiest one to get Congressional consensus on and potentially allowing some temperature reduction.
“I mean I would argue that of all the places out there China's the one that they've been most aligned on it's the easiest one to get like you know consensus in Congress on and you know maybe we can dial down the temperature a little bit”
Ukraine demonstrates that future warfare is combining two competing battlefield realities: World War I-style trench warfare with static lines, mass artillery, and waves of infantry, alongside artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, and advanced intelligence—a hybrid of old and new forms of warfare.
“we're watching Warfare shape shift in front of our eyes um on the one hand you have World War I you have trenches blood guts hand toand fighting waves of troops Mass static everything it's World War I and what's the coin of the realm artillery shells thousands of them so that's the World War I piece but on that same battle field as we know is artificial intelligence unmanned systems”
There will be very dramatic differences in how Trump and Harris administrations approach climate, with Trump pulling out of climate agreements and deregulating, while Harris continues aggressive climate action, creating policy whiplash that makes the US appear erratic in foreign policy.
“I think very dramatic fork in the road on certain international issues I think the most obvious is climate so you've had a trump Administration that pulls out of the Paris uh climate Accord um and and deregulates significantly then we have now had four years of aide Administration doing the opposite and so I think Ian we're going to see very dramatic fork in the road between a trump presidency and a Harris presidency in climate”
While great powers' symmetric warfare capability may be declining, asymmetrical warfare from non-state actors is 'going way up', creating new threats from terrorism, weapons of mass disruption, and cyber attacks.
“asymmetrical Warfare from Rand is going way up correct that's what you need to worry about back where we started this conversation in particular it's small group acts of terrorism it's the ability to use Weapons of Mass disruption as well of weapons of mass destruction and here cyber continues to be very dangerous”
Current defensive operations against Houthi drones involve shooting down $300 drones with $1 million standard missiles, an extremely cost-inefficient approach that will eventually result in a USS Cole-like event when a drone hits a Navy warship.
“we're shooting down $300 drones with million dooll standard missiles... sooner or later one of those drones is going to hit a Navy warship we're going to have a USS coal like event and then We're Off to the Races anyway”
Taiwan is strategically critical not only for semiconductor production and democratic values but also geographically because it guards the northern entrance to the South China Sea.
“what guards the northern entrance to the South China Sea oh it's this island called Taiwan so it it UPS the stakes we think correctly about Taiwan and its critic ity and the world of microchips and its vibrant democracy it's also geographically the door into the South China Sea”
China's approach to the South China Sea will differ strategically versus tactically: tactically China wants to lower tensions (especially with Philippines) because Xi needs to get his economy moving, but strategically China will not back away from its Nine-Dash Line territorial claims.
“I think it's the Tactical versus the Strategic... president XI above all wants to get his economy moving and he knows that a real confrontation particularly in the Philippines is going to be an impediment to doing that... and then secondly she is very Weare very much aware that the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States so something bad happens the Americans are obliged to defend... and strategically however China is not going to back away from their Preposterous claims of territoriality all around this fast body of water”
The emerging 'new Triad' of warfare consists of: (1) unmanned systems (drones, satellites, surveillance, submarines); (2) cyber and artificial intelligence; (3) special forces (elite trained humans doing difficult tasks, including cyber experts, drone pilots, AI engineers—not just Navy SEALs).
“a new Triad that's emerging we think of Triad as theic Triad the nuclear this is the new Triad of warfare it's unmanned systems and people think oh drones no it's much bigger than that it's unmanned that's satellites that's long dwell surveillance it's Reaper Predator attack drones submarines it all the way to the bottom of the ocean that tranch of unmanned is one leg of this new Triad the next leg is cyber and artificial intelligence we can dive in deeper on that and the Third Leg of the Triad are special forces and I want to make a point Special Forces we tend to think of as U Rambo and Navy Seals putting red dots on people's foreheads that's part of it but Special Forces to me are Elite exquisitly trained humans doing very difficult oneoff tasks so that can be a seal it can be a marine Raider it can also be a cyber expert it can be a drone pilot it can be an artificial intelligence engineer”
Taiwan's island geography—wooded mountains with decades of tunneling infrastructure—makes it ideal for resistance warfare, and Taiwan is surrounded by 100 miles of rough sea that makes invasion extremely difficult, functioning like 'the biggest baddest moat on Earth'.
“I think they'll fight and fight hard and that island is a resistance fighter Dream It's wooded Mountain the Taiwanese have been tunneling it for decades I think they'll fight and fight also Island so it's anib as I always say you know there's a reason people built moats around castles in the Middle Ages Taiwan is surrounded by the biggest baddest moat on Earth it's a 100 miles of really rough sea that I've sailed”
The US has invested enormously in forward basing infrastructure (bases around the world tracing to Alfred Thayer Mahan's coaling stations concept), while China today has only one base (in Djibouti), giving the US an enormous advantage in power projection.
“we've invested in it enormously even if you look at China which would be the other nation that is consciously developing the ability including major nuclear capabilities nuclear capability Satellite Systems building bases China today has you probably know this one base it's in jib there are are hundreds of us bases all around the world those bases go back to Alfred the Mahan over a hundred years ago the forward coling stations of Mahan are these bases today”
China's territorial claim to the South China Sea using the Nine-Dash Line is analogous to the US claiming ownership of the entire Gulf of Mexico because American warships have passed through it—both are preposterous and unjustifiable under international law.
“what China is doing Ian is effectively saying it would be as though the United States said we own the Gulf of Mexico we own everything around it we own that entire body of water and we own it because um American warships have passed through it um over the years it's a Preposterous claim”
Putin likely did not anticipate losing the Black Sea Fleet because he viewed it as an 'ace card' to strangle Ukrainian economy, but instead the fleet is now cowering in the Eastern Black Sea and the Ukrainian economy continues flowing with exports unimpeded.
“what were the chances that Putin thought he was going to lose the Black Sea Fleet when of the war zero zero right I thought that was one of his ace cards that he would use to strangle the Ukrainian economy guess what hasn't happened the Black Sea Fleet is now cowering in the Eastern Black Sea they're scared to get anywhere near Ukraine and the Ukrainian economy is Flowing just fine uh all of its exports”
The Chinese military has not been in serious combat since the Korean War (70+ years ago), creating uncertainty about general competence, whereas the American military is 'highly blooded' with extensive recent combat experience.
“the Chinese military hasn't been in combat in a serious way since the Korean War... he doesn't have a general who s a shot fired in anger For Better or For Worse the American Military is highly blooded”
The Houthis are not a ragtag militia but a sophisticated, well-equipped force trained and organized by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, possessing high-tech communications and Navy SEAL-level operational capability.
“the houthis have been trained equipped organized by the Iranian and particularly by the Iranian revolutionary guard thec Google uh houie takedown of Warship you'll see a Navy SEAL like operation fully kitted out high-tech communic rope line down incredibly incredibly capable so this is not Hamas with their go not at all no this is a very well equipped force on the maritime side”
Ukraine has destroyed or severely damaged nearly half of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (starting with 60 ships) using only unmanned vehicles, intelligence, and drones—not conventional naval warfare—including sinking the flagship Moskva with 400 sailors.
“the Russian Black Sea Fleet started with 60 ships of which almost half are sunk or badly Dam which is crazy because Ukraine doesn't have a Navy you stole my punch line yeah sure Ukraine doesn't even have a Navy they did it all with unmanned Vehicles Exquisite intelligence and what was the first ship they sank the flag the flag mosa took it down with 400 Sailors a remarkable feet of arms”
Stavridis proposes a five-phase escalation campaign against Houthis: (1) defensive operations; (2) strike Houthi maritime infrastructure (repair facilities, ammo dumps, docking stations); (3) strike Houthi command, control, and ground capability; (4) sever Iran-Houthi links via blockade; (5) strike Iranian warships providing support in Red Sea.
“I'll give you a five-step campaign plan we're one step into it... number one we defend... number two we haven't done this yet in a serious way you go ashore in that second phase and you go after the maritime capability the boat repair facility the ammunition dumps the docking stations the peer structure... third phase you go after houy targets but you don't confine it to the maritime you go after their command and control you go after their leadership you go after their ground capability... step four you sever the links between Iran and the houthis... Phase five most controversially if none of that works... you go after Iran... you start going after Iranian warships that are operating providing intelligence and support to the houthis in the Red Sea”
Xi Jinping is observing Ukraine and considering three major uncertainties before deciding on Taiwan: whether his generals are as incompetent as Russian generals (who failed to conquer Ukraine), whether Taiwanese will fight as hard as Ukrainians have, and whether he would face devastating sanctions like Russia.
“let's put ourselves in shiing Ping's shoes for a minute because there's another word here we talk about Taiwan what else is she looking at he's looking at Ukraine and he's asking himself three things... his best friend forever Vladimir Putin whispered in his ear you know she I'm going to take down that country I'm going to sweep across it in five days I'm going to grab that little knucklehead former comedian... what happened well they got stopped so point one president shei is watching what happened in UK Ukraine and he's asking himself H I wonder if my generals are as bad as those Russian generals appear to be... uncertainty number two she says to himself H I wonder if those Taiwanese will fight like hell the way that the ukrainians have... and number three would he incur big sanctions the way that Russia has”
Military strategic thinking should avoid treating warfare as an on/off switch between old and new forms; instead it's a dial/restat that should move progressively: less spending on expensive conventional platforms, more on cyber, unmanned systems, space, lightweight maritime systems, and modernized Marine Corps.
“so often in geopolitics and life we want to think of everything as an on and off switch everything's black and white it's very simple so one could say oh yeah the US military needs to absolutely do unmanned and uh Special Forces and cyber and get rid of all those expensive platforms that's not the right image it's not an on andof switch it's a re estat you dial it in and so over the next four years I think quite significantly using the less of Ukraine you're going to see the dial of that re estat move less spending on those big conventional platforms more spending and the good news is a lot of it's less expensive on Cyber on unand on space on lightweight Maritime systems on a US Marine Corp”
China's Nine-Dash Line territorial claims in the South China Sea were rejected by the International Court of Justice because they are based only on voyages by Admiral Zheng He 400 years ago, without any actual occupation, outposts, or sovereignty establishment.
“China bases all their claims on the Voyages of a Chinese Admiral shuni um 400 years ago but they never claimed the territory they never built outposts they did nothing to establish real sovereignity so their claims were rejected”
The US should follow international law of the sea principles (12 miles territorial sea, 12 miles contiguous zone, 200 mile exclusive economic zone) and does walk that walk, giving the US moral authority to criticize China's unsupported Nine-Dash Line claims.
“we do Walk The Walk of the International System our territory Seas as you well know are 12 miles there's another 12 miles of uh contiguous Zone and then there's a 200 mile exclusive economic zone we follow those precepts so I'm pretty confident in our moral Authority in pointing this out”
Elections amplify the tendency of bad actors to conduct operations because the spotlight is on the United States during election cycles.
“there's gonna amp up the tendency of Bad actors to do things because they know the spotlight is here”
China's economy, while very large, could be significantly damaged by precision-guided secondary sanctions from the United States, which would crack the global economy if imposed.
“yeah it is pretty big economy but could we hurt it badly with Precision guided sanctions secondary sanction yeah it would crack the global economy let's hope we don't get there”
Over the next 5 years the US will continue to be the preeminent power at power projection globally, with China making attempts to compete but Russia's power projection capability will collapse due to Putin's 'folly in Ukraine'.
“I think we will continue to be the preeminent Nation at projecting power... I think the US will continue to be preeminent China will make a play to do it Russia the lights are going to go out I think because of Putin's Folly in Ukraine”
The Scarborough Shoal incident, where a ship is falling apart and the Philippines are trying to shore it up, has involved actual fighting between Chinese and Philippine soldiers with at least one Philippine soldier losing his thumb.
“so in other words this the Scarboro sh which has this ship that is falling apart which the Philippines are trying to shore up as it were and there have been there's been actual fighting between the Chinese and Philippine soldiers there's been I think one soldier lost his thumb yeah right I mean it's piracy kind of stuff right”
Putin has been provided a humbling lesson through Ukraine about the limits of military power, where his initial plan to conquer Ukraine in five days failed completely.
“Vladimir Putin whispered in his ear you know she I'm going to take down that country I'm going to sweep across it in five days I'm going to grab that little knucklehead former comedian and throw him in prison for the rest of his life or maybe I'll kill him what happened well they got stopped”
Biden administration has avoided phase two of Houthi campaign (striking maritime infrastructure) for months because of desire to avoid wider war with Iran, but Stavridis believes this caution is unnecessary and that the US can strike infrastructure without inevitably leading to major Iran conflict.
“I have no idea if you were in there would you be strongly Rec already absolutely months ago months ago so is this just incapability why I think it is a desire on the part of the at the time the Biden Administration to avoid a wider War they are concerned that when going after this proxy infrastructure will inexorably lead to a major conflict with Iran I reject that you can't be scared of your own shadow and we can't seed uh 20% of the global Shipping chains to the houthi”
Personnel costs are by far the most expensive component of US armed forces, making reduction in standing armies strategically advantageous
“Special Forces to me are Elite exquisitly trained humans doing very difficult oneoff tasks so that can be a seal it can be a marine Raider it can also be a cyber expert it can be a drone pilot it can be an artificial intelligence engineer those kind of special forces we are going to need less of these huge standing armies which are incredibly expensive the by far the most expensive thing in the US armed forces are Personnel”
Stavridis believes that if he were in the position of commanding forces in the region, he would have recommended going ashore to strike Houthi maritime infrastructure months ago.
“if you were in there would you be strongly Rec already absolutely months ago months ago”
Military spending reallocation from conventional platforms to unmanned/cyber systems is good news for US defense budget but not good news globally
“well that's good news for us defense spending that's not good news globally correct not at all no not at all”
The geopolitical backdrop to US domestic threats is more volatile and uncertain than any point Stavridis has observed in his career
“clearly the backdrop geopolitically to a challenging domestic us threat environment is much more volatile and uncertain than uh any time that I've been watching uh politics”
Stavridis spent four years fighting Somali pirates, giving him direct experience with maritime security operations and context for comparing Somali pirates (teenagers with rusty AK-47s) to highly trained Houthis.
“I spent four years fighting Somali pirates right the those were teenagers in flip-flops with Rusty AK-47s maybe you've seen Captain Phillips okay that's not the houthis”
Stavridis wrote his PhD on the law of the sea and was dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, giving him expert credentials in international maritime law.
“you you're tweaking me Dr Dr bremmer okay now you you tease Taiwan we haven't hit it yet uh does your view... you sound like you know a little something about the law of the Seas um I was the dean of the Fletcher School of Law and diplomacy and of course I wrote my PhD on the law of the sea”
Stavridis has spent time in Taiwan and believes Taiwanese population will fight hard for their independence, based on his personal observations.
“I don't know he's never been to Taiwan I've been to Taiwan a fair amount I think they'll fight I think they'll fight hard”
Stavridis's novel '2054' (set in the future US) depicts a dystopian picture of internal conditions on the ground in the United States, though he doesn't elaborate on specifics in this conversation.
“this one as opposed to the last one in Asia which was a lot of fun of course nukes were popping off in the last one Jim so I was worried about that this is a much more benign book it is more benign though it's a little dystopian in terms of a lot of things you see on the ground in the United States we're not going to go there”