Peter Schiff on Gold, Silver, Market Challenges + Arras Minerals & GFG Resources CEO Interviews
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Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 02:04 - What is the real valuation of gold? 13:34 - Do you stay in gold during a broad liquidity event? 17:14 - What's Peter's strategy behind the Euro Pacific Gold Fund? 22:09 - How does Peter manage stock dilution risk? 27:55 - Is a $20,000 gold price realistic? 31:26 - Where is the price of silver headed? 32:56 - What is Peter's silver exposure? 38:14 - Are rising interest rates negative for gold? 46:54 - Does the dollar need to crash for gold prices to rise further? 01:00:10 - How does Peter balance being a salesman and staying bullish on gold? 01:13:42 - Is it too late to invest in gold? 01:16:57 - Contact Details Peter Schiff 01:18:23 - Important Warning 01:23:40 - Arras Minerals (TSX-V: ARK) Company Overview 01:36:35 - Arras Minerals (TSX-V: ARK) CEO Interview 02:50:00 - GFG Resources (TSX-V: GFG) Company Overview 02:57:37 - GFG Resources (TSX-V: GFG) CEO Interview
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Peter Schiff argues that gold is entering a major bull market driven by currency debasement and monetary policy mistakes, and that gold mining stocks represent exceptional value relative to the broader market, while mainstream financial media and retail investors remain skeptical due to a decade-long consolidation period.
- Gold has gone from $270 in 2001 to $2,500 today, but mining stocks remain far below 2011 highs despite higher gold prices due to increased mining costs from inflation
- Central banks, particularly emerging market central banks, are accumulating gold while retail investors are selling into the rally, indicating smart money positioning ahead of currency collapse
- The US dollar's reserve currency status is unsustainable given $36 trillion debt with interest payments consuming 25% of tax revenue and growing, necessitating either hyperinflation or a return to gold-backed currency
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Gold mining companies have not discovered any major new deposits in the last 10-20 years, creating supply constraints that will force prices higher as demand increases, since new mining capacity cannot quickly respond to price appreciation.
“there been minimal there haven't been any major discoveries in the last 10 20 years uh that I know of uh and so there's just there's no ability for the market to really add to the supply of gold if there's a huge increase in the demand for gold”
Gold mining stocks are ironic victims of inflation because rising mining costs have consumed all productivity gains, making mining companies earn less per ounce at $2,500 gold than they did at $1,900 gold in 2011, despite the price increase of $600 per ounce
“the cost of mining gold has gone up dramatically so the gold mining companies aren't even making as much money at $2,500 gold as they did back then at $1,900 gold except that $1,900 gold didn't last very long right we we had a big drop but I think you're about to see a boom in in in uh earnings from the mining sector over the next several years”
Gold will eventually be used to back a digital currency, and this will be easier to implement in the modern era with smartphones and internet infrastructure than ever before in history
“you could issue a digital currency back by gold you could tokenize your gold and the either the government can do that right the government can issue a currency back by gold or private companies can issue their own currency back by gold and then that those tokens Can can easily uh be used in Commerce by everybody anybody with a smartphone uh can make payments in Gold uh so it's it's never been easier to go on a gold standard than it is right now”
Gold is not an investment but rather money, and should be compared to other forms of money (dollars, euros, yen) rather than to investments like stocks, bonds, or real estate; it is a store of value that has lost 99% of the dollar's purchasing power since 1913 when the Federal Reserve was created
“gold is not an investment I've never said it was investment right because it doesn't have a yield he's 100% right gold is money so you have to compare gold to dollars cash Euros cash Yen cash”
Central banks, particularly emerging market central banks, are the real buyers of gold while retail investors are net sellers through ETFs, indicating that central banks have superior knowledge and are positioning ahead of a currency crisis
“they know what's there they know what's coming right they're at grounds zero and and they're buying gold but also you've been seeing you know the Indians buy gold the Chinese buy gold so I I think they're smarter than the Americans and maybe some of the western Europeans who have been selling it”
We are in the early stages of a gold bull market as evidenced by lack of investor enthusiasm, skeptical retail traders, minimal attention from media and conferences, and gold ETF net outflows despite rising gold prices—all typical early bull market characteristics
“I think that's very bullish uh because it really is another indication to me that we're we're going up right because there's not a lot of people that are in the trade yet and they will go eventually”
In scenarios with price controls, silver will become the preferred medium of exchange in black markets over gold because of its divisibility, making physical silver demand surge in an underground economy
“I think what they are most going to want is silver right it's it's easily negotiable you pay somebody with a a silver dime or maybe a 1o silver round you know you can get the food items that are not available legally and so there could be a lot of demand for physical silver as you have an underground economy uh conducting Commerce in Contraband”
Gold has risen from approximately $270 in 2001 to $2,500 in 2024, representing more than an eightfold increase over 23 years, while the Dow Jones has only quadrupled in the same period
“people forget that before gold went sideways for a decade it went from under 300 in 2001 I think we started this Century go was about 270 and during the first decade it went from 270 to 1900 by 2011”
Arc Resources founder and CEO Tim Barry has spent 20+ years in global mineral exploration including work in Africa, Mongolia, North and South America, and has previously built companies to acquisition or production stage, giving him significant credibility
“I'm a a New Zealand geologist and and we like barbecues down there so I'm I'm happy to get those kind of questions um so I'm a New Zealand geologist much like most new zealanders we we would head off to to Australia to se Cal Fame and Fortune I uh I chose to to head up to Canada instead and very quickly got involved in the mineral exploration business there uh and spent the 20 years years essentially traveling the world”
If the US loses its reserve currency status and can no longer run trillion-dollar annual trade deficits by exporting newly printed dollars, Americans will experience a massive collapse in living standards because the country lacks the factories, supply chains, and workforce to produce the goods it currently imports
“when the world decides that they don't want to do that anymore that they don't want to stockpile dollars that they'd rather stockpile gold and hold gold as a reserve instead of dollars which they use to buy us treasuries which are going to get decimated with inflation then that's it the part's over in America because now we can't run a trillion dollar uh a year trade deficit but we our economy depends on all those goods coming in we can't produce the goods we don't have the the factories that the the supply chains the the trained workers”
The Federal Reserve should raise rates rather than cut them to properly address inflation and prevent hyperinflation, but will not do so because it would cause a market crash and political opposition, instead repeating the mistake of extending artificially low rates
“not only should they not cut rates that they should raise them um of course you know the markets would react horribly to that stocks would tank um you know it would be horrible for the economy but you know that has to happen because the economy is a big bubble and artificially low interest rates are a big part of the problem and so normalizing rates are part of the Cure”
It was a strategic mistake for Biden to weaponize the dollar's reserve currency status through sanctions on Russia because it sent a signal to other countries to get out of dollars and accelerated the loss of the dollar's reserve currency status
“it was exceptionally dumb of Biden to sanction Russia the way he did to weaponize the Dollar's Reserve currency status in a way that was like a wakeup call for the world get out of the dollar you know you know you guys are you know you're taking a huge risk because we could just turn turn that against you”
Arc is conducting a 5,000 meter, 100-hole KGK drilling program at the Teelai target with the goal of testing mineralization through overburden and determining if diamond drilling is warranted, at a cost of $100 per meter plus $25 per meter for assay ($125 total)
“our drill contract uh we're drilling $100 a meter uh with another $25 uh on top of that for for assay um so you know if you take uh that cost $125 uh dollar a meter um you know a 5,000 meter drill program is is a million dollars”
Precious metals mining stocks trade at historic discounts to both the price of physical metals and to producer valuations, indicating substantial upside if the valuation gap closes through either appreciation or M&A activity
“you might think well if the public the retail public was selling gold and they are I mean sales that shift gold are down this year I mean everybody's are down I mean we we might be down a little bit less the wholesalers are telling us that we're you know gaining our market share but we're not selling historically a lot of gold right now”
Unlike crypto promoters who must constantly recruit new buyers to maintain prices, gold is too large a market for any individual's promotion to move prices, so Schiff has no ability to manipulate gold prices for personal gain
“nothing I say is going to impact the price of gold I mean the gold market is so big and so deep I can go on television all day long and say Go's going to a million and it's not going to impact the price but you go on there and talk about Bitcoin I mean you you know some people buy it and the price can really jump”
Gold hitting 2500 is still cheap compared to where it's going because investors need to view gold relative to the money supply, debt levels, and other asset prices rather than in absolute historical terms
“look at gold in relation to the Dow because if you look at the historic pricing of the Dow Jones the bottom of you know bare Market Cycles in terms of real money inflationary cycle has been around one to one or maybe not quite one but 2 O to 1 ooun”
Interest payments on US government debt are currently 25% of total tax revenue and will grow to consume all tax revenue within a few years, making the government entirely dependent on Federal Reserve money printing, as interest payments will soon exceed both Social Security and Medicare
“the national debt is 35 and a half or 30 36 35.2 trillion and we're spending about 25% of our tax revenue on interest on the debt which is now the third biggest government expense it passed uh this year at P defense so you got so Medicare Social Security interest on the debt but by the end of next year interest on the debt will be bigger than Social Security and by the end of the following year it'll probably be bigger than Medicare”
Gold is at $2,530 per ounce and has closed three consecutive days above $2,500, setting new record highs, indicating strong momentum in a bull market.
“we've now closed three days in a row above 2500 we set a new record high inad day today I think we got above 2530”
If the Fed were to hike rates in September instead of cut them, gold would decline but less than the stock market, allowing investors to subsequently buy stocks at lower prices with their gold, and this would actually be beneficial for gold holders despite the short-term pain
“I think it gold would tank but they're not going to do that but gold would go down less than the stock market so in that respect you know you'd be able to buy more stocks with your gold so if you know your gold gold is your liquidity and the FED hikes rates and the stock market crashes by 10% and your gold crashes by 3% you know you're still you're ahead of the game”
Bitcoin has lost more than 30% of its value when priced in gold over the last three years, representing a major bear market in Bitcoin that receives no media attention because journalists focus more on Bitcoin than gold despite gold's superior performance
“Bitcoin has lost more than 30% of its value priced in Gold over the last three years so this is a major bare Market in Bitcoin and you wouldn't know about that from all the media and all the hype uh Bitcoin is supposed to be digital gold well it's been underperforming digital gold for the last few years”
Silver will outperform gold during the bull market because silver typically outperforms during bull markets, but Schiff maintains more exposure to gold than silver in his portfolio
“there hasn't been a bull market where silver hasn't outperformed so maybe maybe this time is different I don't know but it's more likely that it's the same and so I'm I'm more bullish on Silver but I've got both and I have more you know more of my exposure is to S gold than silver”
Most of GFG's shareholders consist of institutional investors (Alamos Gold, Pathfinder, Delbrook Capital), a few large retail shareholders (10-15% of float combined), and limited pure retail participation, indicating quality shareholder base
“I'm super happy with our shareholders lundine family bamos bunch of institutional shareholders really strong us retailed guys that own 10% of this company maybe 15% combined between three of them”
In mature mining districts like Timmons, explorers can expect acquisition deals with producers at earlier stage of development than in greenfield jurisdictions because infrastructure and geological understanding are established, shortening the development timeline
“in camps like Timmons you you you compress the curve um so you acquire things sooner you projects can be more risk the geological models are more understood people's infrastructure is more well understood”
GFG Resources controls approximately 800 square kilometers in the Timmons gold camp, second only to Newmont in terms of land package size, positioning the company for district-scale discovery potential in a camp with multiple operating mills creating M&A incentives
“it's unusual for a junior to amass the amount of land we have in an a l t if that m&A that you're alluding to here is not happening at $2,500 gold though for you when is it happening like is a company specific do you need 3,000 it's not price it's its development stage of the project”
Previous operators on Timmons properties like Alo and Monclair missed opportunities because they lacked modern understanding of structural controls, failed to drill deeper holes to understand ore body orientation, avoided areas under swamps, or sold early before the camp had developed mill infrastructure that currently provides satellite feed demand
“most of the drilling was done you know prospector type IEP good group um but but probably not going to take it all the way to the resource and and build things out and and that's who acquired it from you know our structural understanding would be very Superior we've drilled some much deeper holes we've had better results”
Tech Resources has entered a joint venture on 1,700 square kilometers of AIS ground where Tech will spend $5 million on exploration by end of 2025, then has the option to fund $190 million on 120 square kilometers covering four selected properties, earning a 75% interest with AIS retaining 25% as free carry
“Tech has selected about 1,700 square kilm of land on which they'll spend about $5 million worth of exploration dollars by the end of 2025 which will give Tech the option to choose four properties out of that 1700 square kilometer package and those four properties should be covering uh no more than 10 120 square kilometers so less than a tenth of that uh overall ground that they're going to look at where after that they are going to have to fund close to $50 million so 550 almost uh of exploration expenditures per project”
I established Schiff Gold not for profit motives but because people were being ripped off by other gold dealers, and specifically to ensure customers get fair dealing with minimal markups rather than the 50% markups charged by companies that advertise on Fox News
“what happened was a lot of people were getting ripped off I was hearing a lot of stories about people overpaying for gold a lot of these companies you know were bait and switch uh where they would advertise certain gold coins but then when you call up the salesman would push you into these overpriced you know you know fake numismatic coins and so I didn't like people you know buying gold because I told them to and then getting ripped off”
AIS Minerals has identified a significant opportunity in Kazakhstan where a 500-kilometer stretch of the porphyry belt has only 3 known deposits compared to 26+ in Arizona-Mexico, indicating 90% underdiscovered potential relative to other major porphyry belts
“when you compare the kazakstan pory belt to other famous po Frey belts like the one in Arizona or Chile or Peru or the Philippines the number of discovered por free on this belt to date is about 90% lower than those ones meaning on that 500 kilometer part of the boako belt that's the the py belt in in Kazakhstan there are only three pory deposits that are now discovered uh whereas within 500 kilometers of the other four ones that I mentioned there's an average of 26 deposits”
GFG management reprice warrant exercise prices downward from 18 cents to 13.5 cents to retain support of large shareholders who have participated in all recent financings, arguing this minor concession prevents larger shareholder defection that would more harm retail investors
“very important to keep your large supporters supportive and backing the company in this market so if you have a basket of large shareholders that have been very supportive over the long term in my view it's uh it's in the best interest of the company uh to keep them being supportive and participating and engaged in it and if it means an incremental reprice of a warrant from 18 cents to 13 cents so be it”
AIS Minerals controls over 3,300 square kilometers of land in Kazakhstan across multiple non-contiguous properties, representing a dominant land position in the region that was assembled through strategic staking and acquisition after Kazakhstan revised its mining law in June 2018
“they're not next to each other but there's a bunch of them by acquiring a lot of ground which has resulted in them now sitting on a combined surface of over 3,300 square kilometers of land that's square kilometers not square meters”
The Elm property at AIS Minerals hosts two major copper-gold anomalies (Breski at 8.8 km and Amai at 14 km) with historic Soviet drilling showing 127 meters of 0.66% copper, with mineralization remaining open at depth and never drill tested by AIS
“with historic drill results from the former showing highlight intercepts of 127 M of 66% um copper 33 met of 80 and 70 met of 0.5% of copper equivalent”
Boga deposit contains approximately 600,000 tons of copper across indicated and inferred categories with 0.32% and 0.24% grades respectively, plus 3.5 million ounces of gold and 8.2 million ounces of silver, and AIS has an option to acquire 100% of the project for $15 million USD by end of 2025
“almost 50,000 meters of drilling which has resulted in almost 600,000 tons of contained copper spread almost evenly between the indicated and inferred categories of the ni 43 101 um copper is not the only thing by the way oh grades of copper3 and 0.24% respectively uh with a nice half a gram gold credit as well as some silver and also want to say some across the two categories I'm talking about 8.2 million ounces of silver and almost three and a half million ounces of contained gold”
GFG Resources' share count of ~240 million fully diluted is a liability that reduces per-share value of any discovery, but the absolute size of a discovery (50-80 million dollar market cap unlocked) is independent of share count; successful discovery drives valuation regardless of capitalization.
“you know the 240 million share count yep nobody likes that me least of all as a shareholder relevant as well um you know and and but I do think you have to go back can still say look the win on any relevant Discovery is 50 million bucks on on a discovery hole”
Bitcoin will eventually collapse as ETF investors attempt to redeem and the underlying bitcoin can't be sold quickly enough for cash at desired prices, creating a cascading liquidation of Bitcoin ETF holdings
“this next crash is going to be you know a spectacular uh collapse and it can happen any day right I mean you're just you know playing with fire if if you own it”
GFG recently agreed to sell its Rattlesnake Hills property in Wyoming for $3.3 million in total consideration, consisting of $1.7 million upfront cash and stock, $1 million deferred payment 12 months post-closing, plus recovery of $220,000 reclamation bond
“we raising um back in q1 the uh 2.7 million 2.8 it was right in that range and uh that was a that was a good top up to the balance sheet you layer that in with the 3.3 million sale of rattlesnake that it's not all upfront but you can take half a million of that plus the 1.2 million so you get 1.7 million of cash coming in by the time we close this deal in Q4”
Brian Scander (GFG CEO) invested heavily in GFG shares at average cost base of ~24 cents USD at company founding, and continues to buy at opportunistic prices including recent purchases at 8.5 cents and 10 cents, demonstrating conviction in the company despite poor recent performance.
“my cost base is probably around 24 cents on the name of the company and uh much of that was bought earlier on uh history at at 25 cents us uh which is what we raised at when we set this company up”
GFG expects to allocate approximately 70% of its 4,000 meters of planned drilling to Alo and Monclair while dedicating 30% to earlier-stage targets like Mosco and Dory to balance resource development with pipeline building for future discoveries
“if I had to rank them in terms of how they sit within our priority Matrix you've got Alo at the top from a minor perspective um you would have M and Clair down there further um as you look at the other portfolio and this is where the 30% of the budget going to Dory and Pen becomes relevant”
GFG's most advanced target, Alamo (Alo), returned intercepts of 14 grams per tonne gold over 7 meters with visible gold and multiple high-grade zones, representing discovery-stage drilling in a historic gold mining area that was last drilled in the 1990s
“when it comes to something like alos which we published drill releases on this morning we can put two or three drel results um like press releases out that show that thing has scale continuity growth stack veins high grade”
The Fed is preparing to enter an easing cycle by cutting rates in September and returning to QE by early 2025, following a period where they stopped hiking and tapered quantitative tightening, which is itself a form of easing
“they've been easing for a while because they stopped hiking and they already tapered back the size of their QT program so that's already an easing that they've had but they're about to cut rates in September and I think by the end of the year early next year they'll be back at QE again”
The dollar index is about to decline dramatically, potentially falling from current levels around 101.5 to below 99, then to 90 within a year, and possibly to all-time record lows around 70 or even below 50 as the world loses confidence in dollar-denominated assets
“you know the dollar Index I said now it's about 101 and a half I think when it cracks you know through 99 I think it's going to go to 90 pretty quickly it could even do that before the end of the year we'll see but I think once it trades below there I think in one year it can it can get down to 70 and that's around the all-time record low for the dollar Index and if we take that out it could drop to 50 40 I mean just just get decimated”