Drones are Dominating the Battlefield, and America Should be Worried
What this covers
The era of drone warfare has officially begun, and it’s revolutionizing the battlefield. America no longer has a monopoly on drone technology, and the U.S. Military needs to take notice. Russia recently launched the world’s first fully autonomous land-air drone attack using technology available to all of America’s enemies, including terrorist groups. Meanwhile, Israel has discovered the drawbacks of drones, which make it difficult to fully prevent civilian casualties.
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#Drones #AI #Ukraine #Russia #Iran #Houthis #Terrorism #War #History #Technology
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Drone technology has democratized precision strike capability, shifting warfare from expensive military platforms to low-cost commercial systems adapted by state and non-state actors, while the US military procurement system remains unable to develop cost-effective countermeasures, leaving America vulnerable to adversaries who have mastered rapid drone innovation.
- Precision strike has diffused from exclusive military capability to hobbyists and tactical units globally, with a 12-year-old able to conduct strikes with commercial drones
- US counters cost $2 million per missile while adversary drones cost $20-50k, forcing double-taps and creating unsustainable economics
- Ukraine and Russia are field-testing autonomous drone warfare at scale, gaining insights that make them smarter faster than US procurement cycles allow
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The first drone strike in US history was executed in fall 2001 because the counterterrorism center in the late 1990s identified drones as a promising idea; they strapped a Hellfire anti-tank missile to a Predator drone at Nellis Air Force Base for testing, which created the foundation for armed drone programs.
“first drone strike was actually done uh the fall of 2001 solely because the counterterrorism center in the late '90s said ah this drone is kind of a nice idea let's try to arm it and so they strapped they literally bolted down a a predator drone on the ramp out in Nellis Air Force Base test fired a Hellfire missile an anti-tank missile”
The convergence of high-grade military attempts with very expensive drones down to hobbyists and smart people at the edge of battle adapting commercial drone technology focusing on low cost to deliver payloads in a very jammed environment means both Ukrainian versus Russian and Russian versus Ukrainian forces are developing effective drone warfare in contested battle spaces.
“the convergence of high-grade military attempts with very expensive drones down to um hobbyists and and smart people at the edge of battle adapting commercial drone technology focusing on low cost to deliver payloads in a very jammed environment both Ukrainian versus Russian and Russian versus Ukrainian”
The US had a first strategic offset against the Soviet Union with nuclear strike, followed by precision strike, but now everybody has precision strike capability because the convergence of military drone technology with affordable commercial drones means even a 12-year-old with a hobbyist drone can conduct precision strikes.
“the first strategic offset the US had against the Soviet Union was nuclear strike and then we went to Precision strike well now everybody has Precision strike and now you're down to a 12-year-old kid with a drone with a hobbyist drone can do his own Precision strike”
An asymmetric attack on America is going to use hobbyist non-standard materials carrying payload that could be flown into every aircraft the US has sitting along the flight line, representing a Pearl Harbor-level day of infamy kind of attack that could be launched from within the United States.
“an asymmetric attack on America is going to use hobbyist non-standard materials carrying payload that could be flown into every aircraft we have Sitting along the flight line a a a whole another Pearl Harbor day of INF infamy kind of attack that's launched from within the United States”
The Houthis have shot down a couple of Predator drones attempting operations over the Yemen theater, demonstrating that even non-state actors can defeat large military drone platforms.
“which is why the hooes have actually shot down a couple of predator drones trying to do that over the the Yemen theater”
Ukraine conducted a drone strike on an oil refinery almost 600 miles inside Russian territory, which is significant because the strike was deep inside Russian territory at a distance (600 miles, not 60 miles or 6 miles) previously constrained by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which attempted to keep cruise missiles or weapons capable of flying more than 300 km out of people's hands.
“ukrainians struck at an oil refinery almost 600 miles inside Russia now why is that significant what what is that an advancement we haven't seen before that is deep inside Russian territory that's not six that's not six miles inside Russia or 60 it's 600 miles and there's this feel-good position that the US has been pushing for years called the mctr the missile control technology regime sorry mtcr missile technology control regime trying to keep um any cruise missile or weapon that could fly more than than uh 300 km out of people's hands”
The battle is the ultimate laboratory of innovation because you have to innovate or you're dead, and therefore innovation is happening in both Ukrainian and Russian forces really quickly, suggesting that the Russians have taken elements of their old industry and are out-matching Ukraine with 6-to-1 advantage in artillery while also developing autonomous drone warfare capabilities.
“the battle is the ultimate uh laboratory of of innovation right because you have to innovate or you're or you're dead and so that is happening in both those countries really quickly and uh apparently the the Russians have have taken a lot of elements of their old industry because they're still out out matching they're out shooting Ukraine like six to1 in artillery but the fact that they've even developed a a AirLand a economus drone Warfare capability is is significant”
ISIS was using small quadcopter drones heavily in Iraq and Syria to drop grenades, including through the hatch of armored vehicle turrets from 1000 feet altitude, killing occupants, demonstrating the tactical effectiveness of armed commercial drones at the lowest tactical level.
“Isis was using it heavily in Iraq and in Syria as well to the point of of taking a quad a small quadcopter using it to drop grenades there's I mean there's sadly a lot of videos of them dropping him through the uh the hatch of a hve vehicle from uh from a th000 ft killing the occupants”
The precision strike capability has diffused down to the smallest lowest tactical level, and the US procurement system cannot keep up because the US uses $2 million missiles while adversaries have $20-50,000 drones that have been fired hundreds of times by the Houthis and Iranian-friendly militias in Iraq against US forces, forcing the US to fire two missiles per target to ensure a kill (double-tap), creating unsustainable cost-exchange ratios.
“everybody has Precision strike now and now the Precision strike has diffused down to the smallest lowest tactical level and and and My worry is the US procurement system can't in any way keep up with that and and which is why we have $2 million missiles and they have to double tap it so they fire two missiles to fire to take down a 20 to $50,000 drone which has been fired hundreds of times by the hooes uh or by Iranian friendly militias in Iraq against US forces”
Large military drones like the Predator or Predator B, which are big turboprop aircraft that can stay aloft for 24 hours at 25,000 feet or higher with satellite communications and large 20-inch gimbal ball cameras capable of reading license plates or identifying faces from that altitude, have very limited effectiveness in contested battle spaces like Ukraine because they are in high danger of being shot down by missiles.
“the large drones like the predator or the um uh the Predator B uh a big turboprop aircraft is is up there for 24 hours at 25,000 ft or higher with all kinds of satcom a huge 20-in gimbal ball camera can read a license plate or identifies a man face from that altitude um those are of very limited Effectiveness uh or they're there those are in high danger if you try flying that over a battle space like Ukraine because there's a lot of missiles going to take it out”
Ukraine is using sea drones as well as air drones and has had great success driving the Russian Navy largely off the Black Sea to the point that even cargo ships are now able to reach from Bosphorus by hugging the Romanian coast and make it to the port of Odessa to offload and export products.
“and ukrainians are using sea drones as well tell me about that yes and they've had great success in driving the Russian Navy largely off of the the Black Sea uh to the point now that even ships are able to reach from the bosis you know pass turkey hugging along the Romanian coast and making it to the port of adessa to even offload and and Export products”
Small, expendable drones are the way forward for current warfare, especially in contested battle spaces, because drones made from cardboard or wood materials that don't show up well on radar will make it very difficult for traditional radars and air defenses to detect them, creating asymmetric advantages.
“small and Expendable um is the the way it is today uh especially when you have a contested battle space and and the size matter for for stealthiness is well the the the predator drones show up about like a 737 it's not stealthy um but again adapting to small drones where people are using cardboard or wood uh things that don't show up well on radar uh will make it very very um difficult for traditional Radars and air defenses to detect”
Israel conducted a drone strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria and killed seven Iranian military advisers including three generals, which was a devastating hit targeting the IRGC figure who ran Hezbollah and aimed to degrade Hezbollah's ability to conduct operations against Israel and protect Israel's northern front.
“the strike uh on this supposed Iranian Consulate in Damascus Syria where uh the Israelis were able to uh kill seven Iranian military advisers including three generals uh that was a rather devastating hit interestingly uh Iran although it's supposedly a consulate right so if it's a consulate that's the same thing as hitting Iranian territory although this was in Damascus Syria uh the Iranians are showing a little bit of caution saying oh we'll retaliate at a time and and yeah look it was they they killed the irgc guy which ran Hezbollah um so very much a military Target very much significant it's a significant Target the Israelis were trying to degrade hezbollah's ability to to get after Israel to try to you know protect their Northern front”
The Iranians ignored the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) by using Shahed 136 loitering munitions to provide to the Houthis, demonstrating that long-range precision strike is now pervasive globally.
“obviously uh the Iranians ignored that one because they're using the Sha head 136s giving it to the hoodis smacking ships all over the Indian Ocean”
The Russians initially invaded with ships right up on the Ukrainian coast, but Ukraine developed, fielded, and deployed sea drones continuously to this day, and while not every suicide drone hits, if one out of three or one out of five hits, that's still really good attrition mathematics for forcing the Russian Navy to retreat.
“when they invaded the Russian ships were right up on the Ukrainian Coast but the fact that the the ukrainians have developed and fielded and deployed up until just you know still to this day smacking any Russian ship that comes around there and that you know not every sh not every suicide drone um that's launched hits but if if one out of three or one out of five hits that's still really good math”
Developing better hard-kill low-cost capability for drone defense is essential, but the US Pentagon is far from achieving this, and because these lessons are not being learned, the next foe that figures out how to exploit US drone vulnerabilities will teach it painfully.
“coming up with better hard kill lowcost capability is essenti uh and again our Pentagon can't uh we're long ways from there and and we're not learning those lessons and so sadly the the next foe that uh that figures that out is going to teach it to us in a most uh painful manner”
The pervasive use of long-range precision strike is everywhere now and America is not ready for any foe that comes against it because the US will try to counter that with 1-2 million dollar per shot missiles which are quickly expended when clearly people can drive the cost of those long-range missiles down to a few tens of thousands of dollars not millions of dollars.
“the pervasive use of long range Precision strike is everywhere now and and again America is not ready for any kind of foe that comes against it because we're going to we're going to try to counter that with1 and2 million shots per missile which is quickly expended uh when clearly people can drive the cost of those long-range missiles down to a few tens of thousands of dollars not millions of dollars”
Drone technology should save more lives of US troops by removing troops from direct combat, but if the US is at a disadvantage to the enemy in drone technology, then the US won't have that advantage of protecting its own troops.
“by its nature drone technology should be saving more lives from our own trip troops I I assume that's got to be one of the major benefits and yet if we're at a disadvantage to the enemy we won't have that Advantage is is that a good reading”
Ragtag radical Islamic organizations including Hamas, the Houthis, and Hamas (likely Hezbollah intended), which are getting funding from Iran, plus ISIS, all now have drone technology and are using it against Israel and the United States.
“ragtag radical Islamic uh organizations um Hamas the hoodies hesah obviously they're getting funding from Iran but Isis so they all now have this technology and are using it against us and Israel”
Contrary to neoconservative arguments that the US is degrading the Russian army, the Russian army is actually getting smarter and smarter by applying drone technologies learned in combat, and therefore the neocon argument is wrong.
“for the neocon argument to say ah we're we're degrading the Russian army Russian army is getting smarter and smarter and smarter and applying those Technologies”
The left's focus on diversity, equity, inclusion, and ESG in the military is nonsense that distracts from what matters: lethality—specifically how lethal you can be for as low cost as possible—and the idea that you don't need strong soldiers but just diverse soldiers because the war will be all push-button electronic is completely wrong.
“this idea the the the focus of the left on diversity Equity inclusion and ESG and all the other nonsense pushing that in a mil into uh the military instead of focusing on lethality how many H how how lethal can you be for as low cost as possible that's what matters this idea that um uh we don't really need strong soldiers we just need diverse soldiers because the war it's all going to be push button electronic is complete”
The fact that Ukraine developed a weapon striking a target 600 miles inside Russia with all Russian air defenses still unable to stop it proves that anywhere on a battlefield is a front line and that the idea soldiers aren't needed because warfare is push-button electronic is diluting military capability.
“the fact that Ukraine develops a weapon which is striking Target 600 miles inside of Russia with all the Russian air defenses still getting through the idea that um anywhere in the battlefield is not the front lines is we're diluting ourselves”
Ukraine hit a refinery and caused huge damage inside Russia, missing a drone factory they were targeting by about two buildings, demonstrating that Ukraine has both long-range drone strike capability and significant targeting accuracy.
“the Ukrainian just did it in a concrete way um they hit a Refinery caused huge damage they missed a drone Factory that they were targeting themselves inside Russia they they they were like two buildings off”
Russians just this week launched the first fully autonomous drone attack, an unmanned attack both ground and air against Ukrainian lines with no people showing up and machines sent against enemies, marking a Rubicon moment in warfare.
“just um uh just this week I believe the Russians launched the first fully autonomous drone attack an unmanned attack both ground and air against um Ukrainian line so it's it's kind of a uh another Rubicon of warfare where you have no people showing up um and uh and the machines are sent against uh your enemy”
Ukraine developed its long-range drone capability themselves by taking a reliable motor and turbine engine (which were concentrated in Ukraine as part of Soviet industrial capacity) combined with any kind of guidance system available almost off the internet, and the drone doesn't really need a camera since it just drives itself to a specific coordinate using GPS, which cannot be jammed that far inside Russia because jamming would threaten their own aviation.
“where does Ukraine get that technology they develop that themselves really yes again a reliable motor a turbine engine Ukraine is made turban engines that the big concentration of science knowledge of the Soviet Union a huge part of that um was in Ukraine already and so you take a reliable turbine any kind of guidance system you can buy almost off the internet um and it doesn't really need a camera it's just going to it's just going to drive itself to a specific coordinate and they're not going to be jamming that far inside of Russia you'd be you'd be a threat to your own Aviation if you try to jam that far in”
The way in which the Biden Administration has opened the doors wide open to DEI policies has weakened the military, and it won't take long for Donald Trump to rid the military of all the absurd policy that's weakened it, with only the right people making those decisions.
“well in the way in which the Biden Administration has opened the doors wide open you know to their Dei policies I would think it won't take long for Donald Trump to rid the military of all this uh absurd policy that's weakened us only the right people will make those decisions”
Seven aid workers from a food charity were struck by Israeli drone strikes in Gaza after dropping off food; the vehicles were separated by a couple kilometers for their own protection but were hit almost simultaneously, and Prince's educated guess is that Israel depended on a bad source—a double agent who falsely reported the convoy was a Hamas convoy rather than humanitarian workers, possibly paid by the Iranians to provide false intelligence.
“the the the seven Aid workers from the uh the food charity uh were were hit that was uh they had dropped off food in Gaza they were on their way back out the vehicles were a couple kilometers separate and they were actually hit by almost simultaneously and that was for their own protection that that that distance right but they were hit by a drone strike my my educated semi-educated guess on that is that the isra the Israelis depended on a bad Source basically a double who instead of saying because he probably said that Convoy is a Hamas Convoy strike it someone probably paid them perhaps the Iranians paid them to do that”
It is a tragedy and dangerous to operate in a war zone, but if Israel was intentionally deceived about the aid convoy, then the strike worked very well for Hamas from a propaganda perspective because now international pressure shifts onto Israel to ceasefire and back off due to civilian casualties, meaning the disinformation campaign was an effective Hamas operation.
“it's a it's a tragedy it's dangerous operating in a war zone um but um uh well if they got intentionally Hood the Israelis are really taking a black eye on that right so if they got intentionally Hoodwinked then that worked very very well for Hamas because now the international pressure comes back on to Israel to say you need to ceasefire you need to back off civilians have been killed in the war zone because you struck them so the only reasonable explanation from your expert perspective is that they got snookered that basically they they got fooled uh and it was a propaganda uh campaign a perfect a perfect propaganda opportunity right”
Ukraine is sending a message with its deep strike into Russia that it can dive deep into Russian territory and is trying to up the transaction cost to make the Russian people and especially the Russian government bleed economically, even though there were no deaths from that particular strike.
“they're trying to up the transaction cost to to make the Russian people and especially the Russian government um bleed so even though there weren't any any deaths from that strike there were some some injured they were they were trying to Decap the oil industry”
The US military-industrial complex is bloated and has gotten the US way behind in drone technology, and if Donald Trump wins in November, he should fire all the acquisitions people in the Pentagon and replace them with people from the private sector to buy at the speed of private innovation rather than at the speed of government or Washington.
“the US let's exit on this uh it's our bloated military-industrial complex you say has got us way behind in that technology uh if you're Donald Trump and we win in November what does he do to address this deficiency um fire all the Acquisitions people in the Pentagon and replace them with people that are coming from the private sector because you need to buy at the speed of private Innovation not at the speed of government or Washington”
Force can address the deficiency in drone defense by spending less on defense while replacing people in procurement positions, because people is policy and the Trump Administration's failure last time was not securing or controlling its security apparatus by leaving the same wrong actors in place.
“force a a force the issue by spending Less on defense B replace people people is policy the failure of the Trump Administration not securing not really controlling its security apparatus last time was leaving a lot of the same wrong actors in place”
Right now the Russian forces are conducting ground attacks through autonomous vehicles and are learning and gaining insight from operating them; they are learning in a period of limited pushes before the spring season, and therefore during summer tank season in June, you will see major offensives as conditions improve for armored operations.
“so right now they're uh they're conducting ground attacks through these autonomous vehicles and they're going to gain a lot of insight Knowledge from just they're learning just exercising they're learning and smarter and now you're not going to see any huge offensives effective now in Ukraine for the next few months you have to wait until the fields dry it's now a period called the Great resuta the great slush um you know any any good farm field that's cover with snow and it melts is a big mudbog right so there'll be limited pushes but uh but come June yikes get out that's that is tank country and tank weather”
At the Saudi defense show in Riyadh, Russian vendors were displaying their weapons including loitering munitions, suicide drones, and ground combat vehicles with current video of them destroying NATO-origin systems, suggesting Russia is showcasing its drone warfare capabilities for export and international markets.
“I was at the Saudi defense show in rad and there was a lot of Russian vendors there showing all their wees from loitering Munitions suicide drones ground combat vehicles um with current video of them destroying NATO origin systems”
Both the Syria and Gaza strikes were drone strikes executed by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and demonstrate both the devastating successful impact you can have taking out enemy targets and the problem of civilian casualties, with one incident eliminating an attache that wipes out support structure.
“so both these instances uh in Syria and then in Gaza these were drone strikes executed by Israel by the IDF and shows the devastating and successful impact you can have if you're trying to take out your enemy but also the U you know civilian casualties and as I as I know one o wipes out a whole lot of attab boys”
The control rooms for autonomous vehicle operations are much closer to the edge of battle, approximately 3 to 5 kilometers away from the front lines, rather than in centralized command centers far from combat.
“I Envision this room uh in in Russia uh with a a like a bunch of Gamers with the headsets on controlling the autonomous vehicles is that is that what the control rooms are like in that case they're much closer to the edge of battle they might be 3 to 5 km away okay”
This was a significant week in the evolution of drone warfare due to the strikes in Syria, Gaza, and Ukraine, and there is a lot more drone warfare to study and examine in the future.
“as we move ahead with drone technology there is a lot for us to examine and study uh with the strikes in uh in Syria this week tragically the one in Gaza but also uh Ukraine striking Russia there's a lot for us to study remember this is this was a significant week in the evolution of drone Warfare”