SOUTH KOREA IS OVER

Of all developed countries, South Korean men do the least share of housework and childcare within families, leaving women with disproportionate work if they want to keep careers after pregnancy.

“Out of all developed countries, South Korean men do just about the least share of housework and childcare within their families. This leaves women with a disproportionate amount of work if they want to keep their jobs after a pregnancy.”

Scientific, technological, and innovation advances typically emerge from young adults and middle-aged workers, so a dramatically aging workforce means significantly fewer contributions to society's wealth generation.

“Another factor in the economy is science, technology and innovation, areas in which big leaps are typically made by young adults and the middle aged. Young people have fresh ideas that contribute to the wealth of society. Significantly fewer people working also means way less tax for the government.”

If fertility remains at 0.72, then within four generations, 100 South Koreans will produce only 5 descendants: 100 → 36 → 13 → 5.

“If fertility stays as it is, then 100 South Koreans will have 36 kids. When they grow up, they will have 13 kids, who will then have 5. Within 4 generations 100 South Koreans will turn into 5.”

As societies grow richer, more educated, and experience declining child mortality, people choose to have fewer children—this is a global pattern that South Korea has supercharged.

“In general, as societies get richer, more educated, and child mortality plummets, people decide to have fewer kids. What makes South Korea special is that it's somehow supercharging all of these trends.”

Demographic collapse is happening now, not in the abstract future, and is not limited to South Korea but affects China (1.0 fertility), Italy (1.2), Spain (1.2), Germany (1.4), UK (1.6), and US (1.6).

“Demographic collapse is not an abstract thing in the future, it is happening right now. And it is not just South Korea. In 2023 China had a fertility rate of 1, Italy and Spain 1.2, Germany 1.4, the UK 1.6 and the US 1.6.”

In 2023, about 20% of Koreans live alone and 20% report having no close friends or relatives; by 2060, 50% of South Koreans aged 70 will have no siblings and 30% will have no children.

“Today already about 20% of Koreans live alone. Also 20% report having no close friends or relatives. By 2060, 50% of South Koreans aged 70 will have no siblings and 30% will have no children.”

UN medium fertility projections for South Korea have consistently been too optimistic historically; fertility dropped 8% between 2022 and 2023 alone, so the low fertility scenario is most predictive.

“But in the past, all medium UN projections for South Korea have consistently been too positive. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, fertility in South Korea dropped by another 8%. So we are going to use the latest low fertility scenario, which has been the most accurate in the last few years.”

South Korea's fertility rate in 2023 was 0.72 children per woman, the lowest ever recorded in history, with Seoul even lower at 0.55.

“In 2023 it was 0.72 kids per woman, the lowest ever recorded in history. In Seoul fertility is even lower, around 0.55.”

Young adults between 25 and 35 will only make up 5% of the population in 2060 and typically have no siblings, leaving them with little family and few potential friends, especially outside big cities.

“Young adults between 25 and 35 will only make up 5% of the population and typically have no siblings at all. This leaves the elderly with almost no close family, and young adults with little family and few potential friends, especially outside of big cities.”

South Korea was officially classified as a superaged society in 2024, yet less than 100 news sources covered this major development, indicating severe media attention failure.

“In a nutshell, the app and website gather the world's news in one place so you can compare coverage, see the bigger picture and make informed decisions. Using Ground News you can see that earlier this year, South Korea was officially classified as a superaged society, a term that basically summarizes the effects we described in this video. But less than 100 sources covered this development.”

Even if productivity per worker grows at the same rate or faster than in recent decades, South Korea's GDP could peak in the 2040s, entering permanent economic recession.

“Of course technological progress means that productivity will be higher and each individual will probably produce more than today. But even if productivity keeps growing at the same rate or more than we've seen in the last decades, South Korea's GDP could peak in the 2040s. In other words South Korea will enter a permanent economic recession.”

South and North Korea are technically at war; mandatory military service currently requires 5% of males of combat age, but by 2060 would need 15% to maintain current force size.

“Last but not least, South and North Korea are technically at war. And they could very well still be in 2060. Will South Korea still be able to afford to have its young men do 18 months of mandatory military service? Today 5% of men of combat age are enrolled in the military – in 2060 it would have to be 15% just to match today's numbers.”

Infrastructure only works at scale; as South Korea's population contracts, smaller communities will be abandoned and resources will concentrate in metropolitan areas.

“Since infrastructure only works at scale, smaller communities may be abandoned as the country contracts into its metropolitan areas.”

Out of all developed countries, South Korean men do the least amount of housework and childcare within their families, leaving women with disproportionate unpaid work if they want to keep their jobs after pregnancy.

“Out of all developed countries, South Korean men do just about the least share of housework and childcare within their families. This leaves women with a disproportionate amount of work if they want to keep their jobs after a pregnancy.”

South Korean men are overwhelmed by societal expectation to be main breadwinner and have successful careers, creating a complementary barrier to family formation for men.

“While many men are overwhelmed by the societal expectation to be the main breadwinner and have successful careers.”

Even if productivity continues growing at historical rates, South Korea's GDP could peak in the 2040s and enter permanent economic recession by 2060 due to absolute workforce decline overwhelming productivity gains.

“Of course technological progress means that productivity will be higher and each individual will probably produce more than today. But even if productivity keeps growing at the same rate or more than we've seen in the last decades, South Korea's GDP could peak in the 2040s. In other words South Korea will enter a permanent economic recession.”

If fertility remains at 0.72, then 100 South Koreans will produce 36 children, who will produce 13, who will produce 5, meaning within four generations 100 South Koreans collapse to 5.

“If fertility stays as it is, then 100 South Koreans will have 36 kids. When they grow up, they will have 13 kids, who will then have 5. Within 4 generations 100 South Koreans will turn into 5.”

In 2023, 40% of South Koreans over 65 lived below the poverty line, and this proportion is expected to worsen significantly by 2060 given the pension system's inability to sustain elderly support.

“In 2023 a breathtaking 40% of South Koreans over 65 lived below the poverty line, but in 2060 this number may seem lovely in comparison.”

South Korea's pension fund, worth approximately $730 billion in 2023, is projected to stop growing in the 2040s and be completely depleted by the 2050s.

“Today South Korea has one of the largest pension funds in the world, worth about $730 billion. But it is projected to stop growing in the 2040s and be completely depleted by the 2050s.”

Old-fashioned cultural norms in South Korea make marriage effectively mandatory for couples wanting to start families, with only 4.7% of babies born to unmarried women in 2023.

“Old fashioned cultural norms make matters even worse. Marriage is all but mandatory if a couple wants to start a family – in 2023 only 4.7% of babies were born to unmarried women.”

In 2060, less than 1 in 10 South Koreans will be under 25, and only 1 in 100 will be small children.

“Less than 1 in 10 will be under 25. And only 1 in 100 will be small children.”

By 2060, South Korea's population will have shrunk by 30%, with 16 million South Koreans disappearing in 35 years and the country becoming the oldest in human history.

“The population will have shrunk by 30%, 16 million South Koreans will have disappeared in just 35 years. And it will be the oldest country in human history.”

South Korea spends less on family benefits (childcare, parental leave, housing support) than most other rich countries, leaving families to bear childcare costs privately.

“All of this while South Korea spends less on family benefits than most other rich countries.”

South Korea's fertility rate in 2023 was 0.72 children per woman, the lowest ever recorded in human history, with Seoul even lower at 0.55.

“And in 2023 it was 0.72 kids per woman, the lowest ever recorded in history. In Seoul fertility is even lower, around 0.55.”

South Korea's fertility rate fell from 6 children per woman in the 1950s to below 2 by the 1980s, accelerating the collapse over recent decades.

“In the 1950s South Koreans used to have 6 children on average. In the 1980s the rate fell below 2.”

Despite South Korea's legal 52-hour maximum workweek, unpaid overtime is normative for many workers and government proposed expanding legal work time to 69 hours per week.

“Although the work week is 40 hours and the legal maximum is 52 per week, unpaid overtime is normal for many and the government even proposed to raise legal work time to 69 hours per week.”

South Korea has relatively low wages combined with high cost of living, making real estate in major cities unaffordable for most people and forcing families to pay for expensive private lessons for college preparation.

“Despite this, South Korea has relatively low wages and a high cost of living. Real estate in big cities is out of reach for most people. The cost of education is extremely high, since families have to pay for private lessons if they want to send their kids to a high tier college.”

Demographic collapse is not limited to South Korea; in 2023, China had a fertility rate of 1, Italy and Spain 1.2, Germany 1.4, and the UK and US both 1.6, with fertility rates still falling globally with no sign of stabilization or recovery.

“And it is not just South Korea. In 2023 China had a fertility rate of 1, Italy and Spain 1.2, Germany 1.4, the UK 1.6 and the US 1.6 – which sounds so much better, doesn't it? Well, after four generations, a fertility rate of 1.6 means 60% fewer new people. A fertility rate of 1.2 means 87% fewer people. And fertility rates are still falling, with no sign of stabilization or recovery.”

In South Korea's current population pyramid, there is only one 1-year-old for every four 50-year-olds.

“There's only one 1-year-old for four 50-year-olds.”

The demographic freight train stops for nobody and is hurtling down the tracks at societies, requiring urgent realization and action to prevent catastrophe.

“The demographic freight train stops for nobody – we finally need to realize that it's hurtling down the tracks right at us.”

Low birthrates are mostly discussed in the context of worker shortages rather than as the existential threat they represent to societies, cultures, wealth, and ways of life.

“So low birthrates are mostly discussed in the context of worker shortages – not the existential threat to our societies, cultures, wealth and our way of life that they are.”

Starting a family or not is a personal decision, and most South Koreans are rationally deciding against it given the systemic barriers.

“Starting a family or not is a personal decision. And most South Koreans are deciding against it.”

South Korea has created a culture that leads to very few kids—a summary of all the systemic barriers identified: work pressure, low wages, high costs, gender inequality, weak family support, marriage requirements.

“The bottom line is that South Korea has created a culture that leads to very few kids.”

Many South Korean cultural traditions are already struggling because older generations cannot find young people to pass them on to; as young people disappear, these traditions will die out.

“Many cultural traditions are already struggling because the older generations are having trouble finding young people to pass them on to. As young people disappear, many traditions will die out.”

If societies do not change the 'DNA of modern societies' by making them encourage young people to have children again very soon, the rest of the century will be grim for those living through it.

“If we don't take it seriously very soon and change the DNA of our modern societies in a way that encourages young people to start having children again, then the rest of the century will be pretty grim – for those of us who will live through it.”

Young adults aged 25-35 will comprise only 5% of South Korea's 2060 population and typically have no siblings at all, while the elderly have no family network, guaranteeing a loneliness epidemic.

“Young adults between 25 and 35 will only make up 5% of the population and typically have no siblings at all. This leaves the elderly with almost no close family, and young adults with little family and few potential friends, especially outside of big cities. A loneliness epidemic of epic proportions is all but guaranteed.”

The future of low-fertility societies seems too insane to be true mathematically, making it hard for people to believe despite clear data, because demographic collapse of this magnitude has never happened before in human history.

“And if you do the maths, the future just seems to be too insane to be true, like it's hard to believe. None of this has ever happened before.”

Growing up in 2060 South Korea will mean experiencing a country of seniors with abandoned universities, schools, and kindergartens; young people will face poor job prospects and may be forced to concentrate in Seoul or emigrate.

“What will youth culture be like in a country of seniors? Where many universities, schools and Kindergartens are abandoned as there are no longer children to fill them with life? What kind of job prospects will they face and what will politics look like? If young people don't want to remain alone, they will concentrate in Seoul or a few other big cities – or worse for South Korea, emigrate to other countries.”

South Korea lifted itself out of poverty in record time but in doing so developed extreme workaholism and competitiveness, with unpaid overtime normal and government proposing to raise legal work weeks to 69 hours.

“South Korea lifted itself out of poverty in record time, but in doing so it developed a unique kind of workaholism and extreme competitiveness. Although the work week is 40 hours and the legal maximum is 52 per week, unpaid overtime is normal for many and the government even proposed to raise legal work time to 69 hours per week.”

Almost nobody in public discourse has truly grasped the gravity of demographic collapse because the last century was dominated by overpopulation narratives, making those advocating for more children seem strange.

“The weirdest thing about all of this is that almost nobody involved in the public discourse has truly grasped the gravity of the situation. The last century was utterly dominated by overpopulation narratives and people who say that we need more kids seem weird.”

Low birthrates are mostly discussed in context of worker shortages rather than as existential threats to societies, cultures, wealth, and ways of life—a catastrophic misframing of the crisis.

“So low birthrates are mostly discussed in the context of worker shortages – not the existential threat to our societies, cultures, wealth and our way of life that they are.”

South Korea and North Korea are technically at war; in 2060, South Korea may not be able to afford 18 months of mandatory military service for young men, requiring 15% of combat-age men to enlist just to match today's numbers.

“Last but not least, South and North Korea are technically at war. And they could very well still be in 2060. Will South Korea still be able to afford to have its young men do 18 months of mandatory military service? Today 5% of men of combat age are enrolled in the military – in 2060 it would have to be 15% just to match today's numbers.”

For fertility recovery to continue beyond 2024, South Korea must confront how it reached this crisis point—examining the systemic barriers to childbearing.

“But for that to continue, South Korea needs to face the music and ask how they got to this point.”

In South Korea's current population pyramid there is only one 1-year-old for every four 50-year-olds, indicating severe age inversion already underway.

“There's only one 1-year-old for four 50-year-olds.”

In 2024, South Korean births rose for the first time in 9 years, with 3% more births than 2023, providing a first sign that fertility decline may be reversible.

“In 2024 births rose for the first time in 9 years – 3% more than in 2023.”

By 2060, South Korea's population will shrink by 30%, with 16 million people disappearing in 35 years, making it the oldest country in human history where one in two people will be over 65.

“The population will have shrunk by 30%, 16 million South Koreans will have disappeared in just 35 years. And it will be the oldest country in human history. One in two South Koreans will be over the age of 65.”

In 2024, births in South Korea rose for the first time in 9 years—3% more than in 2023—suggesting a possible beginning of fertility recovery.

“In 2024 births rose for the first time in 9 years – 3% more than in 2023.”

If societies do not take fertility crisis seriously and change their societal DNA to encourage young people to have children again, the rest of the century will be grim for those who live through it.

“If we don't take it seriously very soon and change the DNA of our modern societies in a way that encourages young people to start having children again, then the rest of the century will be pretty grim – for those of us who will live through it.”

By 2060, one in two South Koreans will be over 65, less than one in ten will be under 25, and only one in 100 will be small children.

“One in two South Koreans will be over the age of 65. Less than 1 in 10 will be under 25. And only 1 in 100 will be small children.”

More optimistic economic projections place recession onset as late as 2050, but these are based on medium UN demographic scenarios for which there are no signs of occurrence.

“There are more optimistic projections that see the recession begin as late as 2050, but they are based on the medium UN demographic scenario – and there are no signs that we are heading there.”

In 2000, there were 17.5 million South Koreans aged 25-45 comprising 37% of the population; this generation created K-pop, K-drama, and K-food trends. By 2060, only 5.6 million will be in this age group, comprising 16% of the population.

“In 2000 there were 17.5 million South Koreans between 25-45, and they made up 37% of the population. This was the generation that brought us K–pop, K-drama, K-food, and many other trends that spread around the world. In 2060 there will be just 5.6 million people in that age group, and they will only be 16% of the population.”

Many South Korean men are overwhelmed by societal expectations to be primary breadwinners and have successful careers, creating psychological pressure that complicates family formation.

“While many men are overwhelmed by the societal expectation to be the main breadwinner and have successful careers.”

South Korea has created a culture that leads to very few children because of the combination of extreme work hours, high costs, gender inequality, and limited public support.

“The bottom line is that South Korea has created a culture that leads to very few kids.”

Long-term recovery from demographic collapse is possible if South Korea makes rapid and fundamental societal changes that make young people want to have children again.

“But there is also a kernel of hope here. Yes, the situation is grim. But at least in the long term, recovery is possible if South Korea enacts rapid and societal changes that make its population want to have kids again.”

Japan currently has almost 10 million abandoned houses in rural areas; South Korea will likely experience similar ghost-town creation as demographic collapse causes large parts of the country to be abandoned and reclaimed by nature.

“we're already seeing this in Japan, which has almost 10 million abandoned houses in rural areas. Large parts of South Korea will simply vanish and be reclaimed by nature.”

Europe is considering immigration as part of a solution to demographic challenges, while Korea, Japan, and China are avoiding that policy option.

“a government-funded source out of Slovenia for example mentioned Europe is considering immigration as part of a solution while Korea, Japan and China are avoiding that aspect.”

Universities, schools, and kindergartens will be abandoned as there are no longer children to fill them; young people will concentrate in Seoul or a few large cities, or emigrate, causing rural areas and smaller cities to become ghost towns.

“Where many universities, schools and Kindergartens are abandoned as there are no longer children to fill them with life? If young people don't want to remain alone, they will concentrate in Seoul or a few other big cities – or worse for South Korea, emigrate to other countries. Rural areas will decline and most smaller cities will turn into ghost towns”

A loneliness epidemic of epic proportions is all but guaranteed in 2060 South Korea due to combined effects of population aging, family fragmentation, and extreme age imbalance.

“This leaves the elderly with almost no close family, and young adults with little family and few potential friends, especially outside of big cities. A loneliness epidemic of epic proportions is all but guaranteed.”

Without young people, the soul of South Korean culture will shrink and wither away, and the experience of growing up in 2060 will be fundamentally altered—youth culture will be unrecognizable in a country of seniors.

“Without young people, the soul of South Korean culture will shrink and wither away. And on a personal level, what kind of experience will it be growing up in 2060? What will youth culture be like in a country of seniors?”

Almost nobody involved in public discourse has truly grasped the gravity of the demographic situation because the last century was dominated by overpopulation narratives, making discussion of low birthrates seem weird.

“The weirdest thing about all of this is that almost nobody involved in the public discourse has truly grasped the gravity of the situation. The last century was utterly dominated by overpopulation narratives and people who say that we need more kids seem weird.”

The demographic freight train cannot be stopped; unless action is taken immediately, it will hit societies with inevitable force.

“The demographic freight train stops for nobody – we finally need to realize that it's hurtling down the tracks right at us.”

Without young people, the soul of South Korean culture will shrink and wither away as the population ages and fewer individuals drive cultural production and innovation.

“Without young people, the soul of South Korean culture will shrink and wither away.”

More optimistic projections base South Korea's economic peak as late as 2050, but these are built on UN medium demographic scenarios with no current evidence supporting them.

“There are more optimistic projections that see the recession begin as late as 2050, but they are based on the medium UN demographic scenario – and there are no signs that we are heading there.”

South Korea has an unavoidable bottleneck in the 2040s-2050s; however, in the long term, recovery is theoretically possible if South Korea enacts rapid societal changes that make reproduction attractive again.

“Even in the best made up scenario, South Korea has to pass through an unavoidable bottleneck before it will recover. But there is also a kernel of hope here. Yes, the situation is grim. But at least in the long term, recovery is possible if South Korea enacts rapid and societal changes that make its population want to have kids again.”

South Korea's pension fund, worth about $730 billion in 2023, is projected to stop growing in the 2040s and be completely depleted by the 2050s.

“Today South Korea has one of the largest pension funds in the world, worth about $730 billion. But it is projected to stop growing in the 2040s and be completely depleted by the 2050s.”

In 2023, 40% of South Koreans over 65 lived below the poverty line; as pensions are depleted, this poverty rate among the elderly will likely increase dramatically.

“In 2023 a breathtaking 40% of South Koreans over 65 lived below the poverty line, but in 2060 this number may seem lovely in comparison.”

Today about 20% of Koreans live alone and 20% report having no close friends or relatives; by 2060, 50% of South Koreans aged 70 will have no siblings and 30% will have no children.

“Today already about 20% of Koreans live alone. Also 20% report having no close friends or relatives. By 2060, 50% of South Koreans aged 70 will have no siblings and 30% will have no children.”

Past UN medium fertility projections for South Korea have consistently been too optimistic; fertility dropped 8% between 2022 and 2023 alone, so the most accurate model is the low fertility scenario, not the medium.

“But in the past, all medium UN projections for South Korea have consistently been too positive. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, fertility in South Korea dropped by another 8%. So we are going to use the latest low fertility scenario, which has been the most accurate in the last few years.”

Rural areas will decline and most smaller South Korean cities will turn into ghost towns like Japan's 10 million abandoned houses in rural areas, with large parts reclaimed by nature.

“Rural areas will decline and most smaller cities will turn into ghost towns – we're already seeing this in Japan, which has almost 10 million abandoned houses in rural areas. Large parts of South Korea will simply vanish and be reclaimed by nature.”

Demographic collapse is not abstract and future-oriented; it is happening right now in South Korea, not a distant threat.

“Demographic collapse is not an abstract thing in the future, it is happening right now.”