This is America: Confronting Trump’s ‘red romp‘ with facts over fear
What this covers
Donald Trump will return to The White House. In this special report, MSNBC’s Ari Melber breaks down what comes next. (The Beat's YouTube playlist: https://msnbc.com/ari Ari: www.youtube.com/arimelber Beat merch: www.msnbc.com/Beat5)
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Trump won the 2024 election primarily because voters were economically distressed from inflation and high prices, a pattern replicated globally; understanding this reality is crucial for democratic accountability and preventing erosion of civic institutions through apathy or abandonment of voting and press scrutiny.
- 68% of voters agreed the economy was poor, and Trump won those who experienced severe inflation hardship by 50 points
- This outcome reflects a global pattern of incumbents losing to economic pain, not unique to Trump's rhetoric or style
- Democratic institutions remain viable checks on executive power through courts, voting, and independent press, but require active civic engagement to function
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Trump improved his support among women voters by 3 percentage points despite running against a female candidate, which is notable given the salience of abortion restrictions in this election cycle.
“DONALD TRUMP'S COALITION ACTUALLY IMPROVED A BIT AMONG WOMEN, GOING UP 3%, EVEN AS HE RAN, FAMOUSLY, AGAINST THIS WOMAN CANDIDATE.”
Trump exploited well-known loopholes in the legal system where the rich and powerful can evade laws that bind others and receive special treatment, but he was also repeatedly blocked from abusing power through court interventions, such as courts stopping his travel ban.
“DONALD TRUMP DID EXPLOIT LOOPHOLES WELL KNOWN TO MANY ABOUT OUR LEGAL SYSTEMS, THAT THE RICH AND POWERFUL CAN EVADE LAWS THAT STILL BIND OTHERS, THAT THEY GET ALL KINDS OF SPECIAL TREATMENT, AND THEN HIS SUPREME COURT ALSO GRANTED HIM A NEW SET OF POWERS HE MAY NOW TEST. BUT THAT'S ONLY PART OF THE STORY. HE ALSO WAS REPEATEDLY BLOCKED FROM ABUSING POWER. COURTS STOPPING HIS TRAVEL BAN IN ITS TRACKS, AS YOU MAY REMEMBER”
Trump increased his support among Latino voters from approximately 32% to 45%, a 13-point jump that represents a major shift in a traditionally Democratic voting bloc.
“ME MADE INROADS IN GROUPS THAT HAVE BEEN DEMOCRATIC VOTERS GOING FROM ABOUT 32% OF THE LATINO VOTE TO 45%. THAT'S A 13-POINT JUMP.”
Trump won 50% of the Latino vote in North Carolina and 58% in Michigan, representing historically high performance in these key states.
“HE WON 50% OF THE LATINO VOTE IN NORTH CAROLINA, 58% OF IT IN MICHIGAN.”
The geographic pattern of the 2024 election shows most of the country moved toward the Republican Party, including in traditionally Democratic states like New York and New Jersey, with very few counties swinging Democratic.
“MUCH OF THE COUNTRY MOVED TOWARDS THE GOP, INCLUDING IN STATES LIKE NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY. YOU'RE LOOKING AT THOSE ARROWS THAT SHOW COUNTIES GOING TOWARDS REPUBLICANS, AND YOU'LL NOTICE VERY LITTLE BLUE IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.”
In just the last year (not going back to COVID or two years prior), a majority of voters said inflation caused them hardship, with 22% saying they experienced severe hardship from inflation.
“IN JUST THE LAST YEAR, SO, NOT GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO COVID OR TWO YEARS AGO, IN THE LAST YEAR ALONE, A MAJORITY SAID INFLATION CAUSED THEM HARDSHIP. 22% SAYING SEVERE.”
75% of voters feel recent hardship from inflation, and Trump won those voters who said they faced severe hardship by 50 points.
“IF YOU PUT THAT TOGETHER IN THE NUMBERS, AS WE DISCUSSED IN OUR BREAKING ELECTION COVERAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, 75% OF VOTERS FEEL THAT RECENT HARDSHIP FROM INFLATION, AND TRUMP WON THOSE VOTERS. HE WON THOSE WHO SAID THEY FACED SEVERE HARDSHIP BY 50 POINTS.”
When asked whether voters were better off than four years ago, 46% said worse, 24% said better, and 30% said about the same, with these numbers mirroring a broader pattern of most Americans thinking the country is on the wrong track.
“THAT ECHOS NUMBERS WE'VE REPORTED ON BEFORE THE ELECTION ABOUT HOW MOST AMERICANS THINK WE ARE ON THE WRONG TRACK.”
The trend of voters booting incumbent politicians due to economic pain after COVID is not unique to the United States or Trump, but has occurred globally in democracies ranging from the UK, Poland, Argentina, India, South Korea, and South Africa—these have been called 'inflation elections.'
“THIS TREND GOES WELL BEYOND THE UNITED STATES OR DONALD TRUMP. VOTERS HAVE BEEN BOOTING INCUMBENTS, INCUMBENT POLITICIANS, OVER EXACTLY THIS ISSUE, ECONOMIC PAIN AFTER COVID, AROUND THE WORLD. THIS WENT ON IN WHAT YOU COULD CALL INFLATION ELECTIONS IN DEMOCRACIES RANGING FROM UK TO POLAND TO ARGENTINA TO INDIA TO SOUTH KOREA TO SOUTH AFRICA. THIS HAS BEEN A THING AZAHARA BEEN WELL KNOWN IN MANY PLACES THAT HAVE NO TRUMP.”
There is an 'iron law of politics' that incumbents are most likely to lose when the economy is bad, as expressed in the famous American political saying 'It's the economy, stupid.'
“IF YOU LISTEN TO PAST ELECTIONS, IT'S AN IRON LAW OF POLITICS THAT INCUMBENTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO LOSE WHEN THE ECONOMY IS BAD. THERE'S A REASON THE MOST FAMOUS POLITICAL SAYING IN AMERICAN POLITICS STILL REMAINS, 'IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID.'”
Trump improved his support among voters under 30 by approximately 6 points by targeting young men intensely through digital media and podcasts, despite being the oldest candidate to win the White House.
“TRUMP IS NOW THE OLDEST CANDIDATE TO WIN THE WHITE HOUSE, YET HE INTENSELY AND REPEATEDLY TARGETED YOUNG MEN AND NEWER, YOUNGER MEDIUMS LIKE DIGITAL MEDIA AND PODCASTS, AND HE CUT INTO THE TYPICAL YOUTH SUPPORT THAT DEMOCRATS ENJOY, IMPROVING ABOUT SIX POINTS WITH VOTERS UNDER 30.”
Federal judges have life tenure and can serve as a check on presidential power, with a president having no control over them, and Trump's second-term hires may be more extreme, but judges appointed in the first term remain.
“FEDERAL JUDGES HAVE LIFE TENURE. THEY CAN BE A CHECK. A PRESIDENT HAS NO CONTROL OVER LOCAL AND STATE COURTS, OUR GOVERNMENT AND OUR FEDERAL SYSTEM.”
Democrats spent a year shouting down legitimate questions about President Biden before holding primaries, then pushed him out in a rushed top-down process after voters picked him in the primaries, handing Kamala Harris the shortest runway ever for a new candidate against significant headwinds.
“THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BASICALLY SPENT A YEAR SHOUTING DOWN LEGITIMATE QUESTIONS ABOUT PRESIDENT BIDEN, HELD SOME PRIMARIES, PICKED THE RESULTS THERE, THE VOTERS PICKED BIDEN, AND THEN THE PARTY PUSHED HIM OUT IN A RUSHED TOP-DOWN PROCESS. THAT PROCESS HANDED KAMALA HARRIS THE SHORTEST RUNWAY EVER FOR A NEW CANDIDATE AGAINST THE HEADWINDS I JUST MENTIONED. IT SKIPPED THE VOTING PROCESS THAT ALL PRIOR CANDIDATES TEND TO GO THROUGH.”
When asked if they were better off than four years ago, only 24% of voters said yes, 46% said they were worse off, and 30% said about the same, reflecting long-standing concerns about being on the wrong track.
“46% SAY WORSE OFF. ONLY 24% SAY BETTER. 30%, ABOUT THE SAME.”
The primary reason Trump won, based on voter statements and behavior, was that many voters cited the economy as their top issue, which came second only to democracy as a voter concern and handily beat abortion as a voting priority.
“MANY, MANY VOTERS SAID THEIR TOP ISSUE WAS THE ECONOMY. IT CAME SECOND ONLY TO DEMOCRACY, WHICH, OF COURSE, WAS HARRIS'S CLOSING MESSAGE, AND IT HANDILY BEAT ABORTION, AS YOU SEE HERE, IN THE NEW NUMBERS.”
Abortion was a vital issue for many voters, but it did not eclipse high prices and economic disruptions as a voting driver, according to polling data.
“ABORTION WAS A VITAL ISSUE FOR MANY, BUT IT DID NOT ECLIPSE HIGH PRICES AND ECONOMIC DISRUPTIONS.”
In a race that was approximately 50-47 divided, 68% of voters agreed that the economy was poor or not so good, demonstrating broad consensus on economic conditions that transcended partisan divides.
“IN A RACE THAT RAN ABOUT 50-47, SO PRETTY DIVIDED, TAKE A LOOK AT THIS. 68% OF VOTERS CAME TOGETHER ON THE VIEW THAT THIS ECONOMY IS POOR OR NOT SO GOOD.”
Trump's top aides, including those convicted of crimes in criminal plots, were held accountable and some imprisoned in the first Trump administration, demonstrating that there were consequences even for Trump's closest associates.
“WHEN TRUMP DID PLUNGE INTO NOW PROVEN CONVICTED CRIMINAL PLOTS, EVEN THOUGH, YES, HE WAS ABLE TO EVADE MUCH FOR HIMSELF, HIS TOP AIDES WERE DEFINITELY HELD ACCOUNTABLE, PROSECUTED. SOME IMPRISONED AS YOU SEE HERE THIS VERY YEAR.”
Why candidates are believed to have won matters significantly because the explanations people embrace shape political power and how others respond for years to come—if politicians believe a candidate won through denigration or bizarre behavior, they may mimic that strategy.
“THE ANSWER MATTERS FOR UNDERSTANDING REALITY, AS REALITY REALLY IS, AND IN POLITICS, THE ANSWERS THAT PEOPLE EMBRACE MATTER A LOT BECAUSE THEY SHAPE POWER, AND HOW OTHERS RESPOND FOR EVEN YEARS TO COME. IF EVERYONE THINKS A CANDIDATE WON BECAUSE HIS CLOSING MESSAGE DENIGRATED PUERTO RICO OR BECAUSE HE ACTED BIZARRE ON STAGE, THEN OTHER CANDIDATES -- NOTICE THE COMPARISON HERE -- WILL MIMIC THAT AS A WINNING STRATEGY”
Trump's eight-year period in politics has brought a more divided, vulgar, cynical, and dishonest discourse in public life partly because of him and his apparent resilience and success.
“THESE EIGHT YEARS OF TRUMPISM HAVE BROUGHT US A MORE DIVIDED, VULGAR, CYNICAL, AND DISHONEST DISCOURSE IN PUBLIC LIFE BECAUSE OF HIM AND HIS APPARENT RESILIENCE AND SUCCESS.”
Trump has a playbook against journalists, and politicians across the world often try to abuse power against journalists, dissidents, and artists with independence and followings because they matter to democratic accountability.
“HE HAS A PLAYBOOK AGAINST JOURNALISTS. WE KNOW ACROSS THE WORLD POLITICIANS OFTEN TRY TO ABUSE POWER AGAINST JOURNALISTS, DISSIDENTS, ARTISTS WITH INDEPENDENCE AND WITH FOLLOWINGS BECAUSE THEY MATTER.”
Many supporters of democratic institutions and human rights across ideologies have come together on backing the goal of maintaining in the United States the type of society that Trump has defiantly opposed: democracy, human rights, and basic respect for fellow citizens, plus not having a leader whose speech patterns would get them fired or worse.
“THERE ARE PEOPLE ACROSS IDEOLOGIES WHO HAVE COME TOGETHER ON BACKING THE TENETS OF JUST TRYING TO MAINTAIN IN THE UNITED STATES THE NONPARTISAN GOAL OF THE TYPE OF SOCIETY THAT TRUMP HAS DEFIANTLY OPPOSED, DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND SOME BASIC RESPECT FOR FELLOW CITIZENS. NOT HAVING A LEADER WHO TALKS IN A WAY THAT WOULD GET YOU FIRED FROM YOUR JOB OR BOOTED FROM A BAR OR WORSE.”
Trump attacks elections and facts, and he and his party attack voting rights—a core aspect of democratic participation—which many voters may want to disengage from, but that disengagement is exactly what antidemocratic forces want because it is called voter suppression for a reason.
“HE ATTACKS ELECTIONS AND FACTS. HE AND HIS PARTY ATTACK VOTING RIGHTS. YOUR VERY ROLE IN YOUR DEMOCRACY. AND MANY MAY RECOIL FROM THESE ELECTION RESULTS OR WANT TO JUST DITCH CIVIC ENGAGEMENT. THAT'S A CHOICE. BUT THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THEY WANT. REMEMBER, IT'S CALLED VOTER SUPPRESSION FOR A REASON.”
Abandoning civic engagement, like the 1960s counterculture idea of 'turning on, tuning in, and dropping out,' may save an individual but won't save democratic institutions, so a better course is taking a break for perspective and then re-engaging.
“ABANDONING SHIP MAY SAVE YOU, BUT IT PROBABLY WON'T SAVE THE SHIP. HISTORY'S ALSO INSTRUCTIVE HERE. IN PAST TIMES OF UNREST AND TALK OF AMERICAN FASCISTS, REMEMBER, SOME OF OUR COUNTERCULTURE LEADERS HAVE TALKED ABOUT TURNING ON, TUNING IN, AND DROPPING OUT, AND THAT IS, OF COURSE, YOUR CHOICE, BUT MAYBE A BETTER COURSE IS JUST TAKING A BREAK, GETTING PERSPECTIVE, AND LOCKING BACK IN.”
Many key tasks and areas of civic engagement are at the local level in school districts, libraries, and local officials, which are less overwhelming and more tangible areas for civic participation than national politics.
“MANY KEY TASKS AHEAD ARE STILL AT THE LOCAL LEVEL, YOUR OWN SCHOOL DISTRICTS, YOUR OWN LIBRARIES, YOUR OWN LOCAL OFFICIALS WHO ARE DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN YOUR LIFE THAT YOU MIGHT MEET AND SPEND TIME WITH REGULARLY. THAT'S NOT ONLY A RIPE AREA FOR CIVIC ENGAGEMENT, COULD BE MORE TANGIBLE AND EVEN LESS OVERWHELMING FOR MANY PEOPLE.”
Biden and Democrats tried to talk people out of their view that the economy was bad by pitching data on inflation fading, but the reality voters felt they were living was more persuasive than the data.
“WHILE BIDEN AND DEMOCRATS DID TRY TO TALK PEOPLE OUT OF THAT VIEW, THE REALITY THEY FELT THEY WERE LIVING AND PITCHED DATA ON INFLATION FADING A BIT, WHICH IT WAS”
Democrats could benefit from the same hard factual conversations they often demanded Republicans have about their side, especially regarding how the Democratic Party is losing ground with working people, young people, and some minorities.
“DEMOCRATS COULD HAVE THE SAME HARD FACTUAL CONVERSATIONS THEY SO OFTEN DEMANDED REPUBLICANS HAVE ABOUT THEIR SIDE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LAST EIGHT YEARS, AND EVEN WITH THE BIG TRENDS JUST MENTIONED, IT IS RELEVANT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RESULTS AND THE REACTION OF THE COUNTRY THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BASICALLY SPENT A YEAR SHOUTING DOWN LEGITIMATE QUESTIONS ABOUT PRESIDENT BIDEN...DEMOCRATS MAY FIND SOME VALUE IN EXPLORING HOW THEY'RE LOSING GROUND WITH WORKING PEOPLE, YOUNG PEOPLE, AND SOME MINORITIES.”
Ignoring what's happening in politics and bowing out puts one in a bubble, and bubbles are not only artificial but usually pop.
“BOWING OUT ON THAT, IGNORING WHAT'S HAPPENING PUTS YOU IN A BUBBLE, AND BUBBLES ARE NOT ONLY ARTIFICIAL, I CAN TELL YOU BUBBLES USUALLY POP.”
Independent fact-checking, accountability, and independent information rooted in facts is especially powerful compared to political opposition because it is different than competing political actors and cannot be dismissed as simply competing for power.
“IT'S ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN AN OPPOSITION, MEANING FACT-CHECKING, ACCOUNTABILITY, INDEPENDENT INFORMATION, WHEN IT'S ROOTED IN FACTS OR INDEPENDENCE, IT'S ESPECIALLY POWERFUL BECAUSE IT'S DIFFERENT THAN THE POLITICAL OPPONENTS WHO CAN OFTEN BE DISMISSED AS SIMPLY COMPETING FOR POWER OF THEIR OWN.”
The most striking finding in the 2024 electorate is not about Biden or Trump's policies specifically, but rather that the electorate was reeling from the hardship of high prices and inflation to a degree that many elites may not have experienced personally or treated as a top issue.
“ONE OF THE MOST STRIKING FINDINGS IN THE ELECTORATE TUESDAY IS NOT ABOUT BIDEN OR TRUMP'S POLICIES. IT'S NOT SOME EMBRACE OF EVERYTHING TRUMP EVER SAID OR PITCHED. IT'S AN ELECTORATE REELING FROM THE HARDSHIP OF HIGH PRICES AND INFLATION TO A DEGREE THAT MANY ELITES MAY NOT HAVE EXPERIENCED PERSONALLY OR ALWAYS TREATED AS A TOP ISSUE.”
A starting point for civic engagement in response to Trump's return could be making a personal vow to reject the temptation to drop out or prematurely surrender to the apathy that antidemocratic forces want.
“SO, MAYBE NO ONE NEEDS TO DO ANYTHING TODAY, BUT EVEN MAKING A PERSONAL VOW TO AT LEAST REJECT THAT TEMPTATION, WHICH IS REAL, TO DROP OUT OR PREMATURELY SURRENDER TO THE VERY APATHY THEY WANT, THAT MAY BE A START FOR YOU TODAY”
The saying 'It's the economy, stupid' originated with James Carville and has remained the most famous political saying in American politics.
“THERE'S A REASON THE MOST FAMOUS POLITICAL SAYING IN AMERICAN POLITICS STILL REMAINS, 'IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID.' FROM OUR FRIEND, JAMES HAT NOW?”
Viewers of the speaker's news program have been hearing from Trump's top aides including Bannon, Navarro, and Miller, and while pressed and fact-checked them according to journalistic mission, have also listened and followed their evolutions in political strategy.
“AS YOU CAN SEE HERE, WE HAVE BEEN HEARING FROM TRUMP'S TOP AIDES FROM BANNON TO NAVARRO TO MILLER. WE'VE PRESSED AND FACT-CHECKED THEM ACCORDING TO OUR JOURNALISTIC MISSION, BUT WE'VE ALSO, THROUGH THAT PROCESS, LISTENED AND FOLLOWED THEIR EVOLUTIONS.”
Politicians often claim any victory is a mandate for their entire agenda, but then find that some things are harder to enact than others when actual governing begins.
“POLITICIANS OFTEN CLAIM ANY VICTORY IS A MANDATE FOR THEIR ENTIRE AGENDA. THEN, THE ACTUAL GOVERNING BEGINS AND SOME THINGS ARE HARDER TO ENACT THAN OTHERS”