What this covers
The world is rapidly turning to nuclear power. But can uranium mining keep up?
This week, Mining Memo’s James Cooper wrote about changes that are afoot in the uranium mining industry and whether they signal an opportunity for investors: https://daily.fattail.com.au/ending-mining-bans-will-wa-uranium-stocks-surge/20250226/
Governments are set to reverse uranium mining bans as nuclear power becomes ever more popular. But what if they overdo it?
In this interview, we dig into the threat of a uranium glut as politically motivated uranium mining threatens to oversupply the market.
To watch James’ presentation on the stocks that could have the opportunity to benefit the most from the fracking-like technological revolution playing out in the gold sector, click here: https://pro.fattail.com.au/m/2417263
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Nuclear energy demand is driving policy reversals on uranium mining bans in Western countries (Nova Scotia, Australia), creating investment opportunities in junior uranium explorers and gold developers that hold deposits in previously restricted areas, while supply-side risks from oversupply and geopolitical concentration in Kazakhstan/Russia require careful evaluation.
- Nova Scotia lifted its uranium mining ban after 40+ years due to rising uranium prices and recognition that nuclear energy requires domestic uranium supply
- Australia holds world's largest uranium reserves but mining is banned in key states; upcoming elections may reverse these bans similar to Nova Scotia
- Western uranium supply is geopolitically vulnerable (Kazakhstan/Russia/Niger), making Canadian and Australian production strategically important but subject to policy reversal risk
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Nova Scotia imposed a blanket ban on uranium mining in the early 1980s and lifted that ban last week, signaling a policy shift toward allowing uranium extraction.
“this area put in uranium bans in the early 1980 so a blanket ban on uranium Mining and just I think it was last week the um government or the provincial authorities they decided to lift lift that ban”
The world relies heavily on Kazakhstan and Russia for uranium supplies and uranium processing, with Kazakhstan as the world's largest uranium producer and Russia providing nuclear fuel processing, creating Western geopolitical exposure.
“the world is fairly Reliant for its uranium supplies on on Kazakhstan and Russia and processing also in Russia of nuclear fuel um to what extent is geopolitics Behind these moves by Canada and potentially coming to Australia as well”
The biggest risk for the uranium market is oversupply if uranium mining approvals surge while demand (nuclear reactor construction) develops slowly, mirroring the 'megatons to megawatts' crisis in the early 1990s.
“I think that's the biggest risk for the Uranian Market um if you just look back to the early 1990s so the post Cold Cold War era um we had the mega megatons to megawatts um process”
Kazakhstan is the world's largest uranium producer and is heavily invested in by China, with China holding major offtake agreements to purchase uranium from Kazakhstani mining companies.
“Kazakhstan which is the world's largest producer um is really heavily um pegged to China so China's invested a lot in Kazakhstan I think it's invested a lot in the Uranian mining companies in Kazakhstan so there's a lot of big off take agreements um selling um uranium to uh Chinese firms”
Australia holds the world's largest reserves of uranium, making it strategically important for global uranium supply if mining bans are lifted.
“Australia is uh the world does hold the world's largest reserves of uranium”
The 'megatons to megawatts' program in the early 1990s involved converting enriched uranium from Russian nuclear warheads into low-enriched uranium for U.S. nuclear power generation, which flooded the uranium market and caused closure of many uranium operators in the U.S. and Canada.
“the denuclearization so taking all the all the enrich uranium and sort of converting that into low enriched um uranium from nuclear warheads from Russia and then sending that over to um to America for its um for its nuclear power generation so this sent down the uranium price and um for a number of years is and and cause the closure of a lot of uranium operators in the states and in Canada”
Australia has uranium mining bans similar to Canada's, specifically in Victoria, Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia.
“as some listeners may know that Australia also has um similar bands in place for Uranium so that's across Victoria Queensland New South Wales and Western Australia”
Nova Scotia lifted its uranium mining ban, which has been in place since the early 1980s, as of last week from the time of this recording.
“um what happened there this is a little Province off uh Canada's East Coast um this area put in uranium bans in the early 1980 so a blanket ban on uranium Mining and just I think it was last week the um government or the provincial authorities they decided to lift lift that ban”
There is hidden uranium supply in the world from byproduct mining: deposits like Olympic Dam in South Australia, the ISGC deposit, and other mines globally are mining uranium as a byproduct while primarily extracting copper or other metals, creating potential supply surge if prices rise.
“there will be uh sort of a threat to supplyer or sorry a threat to um increasing Supply so um there's Olympic Dam in in South Australia this is also has a huge uh uranium resources as well as gold and copper the iscg deposit um and there's also a number of deposits around the world which have sort of been mining uranium and just stockpiling it um as sort of a byproduct to their primary or which is often copper um so this is just another it's kind of a hidden um I guess hidden sort of supply of uranium which could hit the market if prices um start to elevate”
Niger, a key uranium supply source for France (Europe's major nuclear power source), recently experienced a government change to a new regime that is anti-Western and has a pro-China Russia agenda, creating Western supply risk.
“Niger so in neria how do I say neria um maybe just stop that um niga um this is a key um key supply chain for France which obviously we know is a major um source of of nuclear power in Europe so um the new government came in the Jun government which is very sort of anti-western and has a more pro-china Russia agenda”
Australia holds the world's largest reserves of uranium but has similar uranium mining bans in place across Victoria, Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia.
“Australia also has um similar bands in place for Uranium so that's across Victoria Queensland New South Wales and Western Australia”
Companies including Kamico and Arano own uranium deposits in Australia that are currently illegal to mine due to state-level uranium mining bans.
“um potentially look at some ASX plays that have um uranium ground and there's a lot there's there's big players there's kamico has has interest there's um arano there's big Uranian players which have sort of”
The world is significantly reliant on Kazakhstan and Russia for uranium supply, with uranium processing also occurring in Russia, creating geopolitical vulnerability for Western uranium demand.
“the world is fairly Reliant for its uranium supplies on on Kazakhstan and Russia and processing also in Russia of nuclear fuel”
Global acceptance of nuclear energy is emerging because renewable energy lacks the energy density to be competitive for industrial manufacturing, making cheap baseload power (from nuclear) strategically necessary.
“globally there is this acceptance that renewable um doesn't have the density to um sort of be competitive for industrial manufacturing so I think you need this cheap Basel load power”
The megatons to megawatts program in the post-Cold War era converted enriched uranium from decommissioned Russian nuclear warheads into low-enriched uranium for U.S. nuclear power generation, suppressing uranium prices for years and causing closure of many uranium operators in the U.S. and Canada.
“if you just look back to the early 1990s so the post Cold Cold War era um we had the mega megatons to megawatts um process and this is just the the denuclearization so taking all the all the enrich uranium and sort of converting that into low enriched um uranium from nuclear warheads from Russia and then sending that over to um to America for its um for its nuclear power generation so this sent down the uranium price and um for a number of years is and and cause the closure of a lot of uranium operators in the states and in Canada”
The Western Australian opposition Liberal party has made lifting uranium mining bans one of its election mandates ahead of next month's state election, signaling potential policy change if elected.
“in the state election in West Australia which is coming up next month um the liberal the opposition party has actually um use that as one of its mandates it'll lift uh the BS in Western Australia if it gets into power”
Western Australia's government has flip-flopped between approving and banning uranium mining, with both liberal and labor governments implementing blanket uranium mining bans, creating investor uncertainty.
“in Western Australia you've seen the government really flip-flop between approving um uranium mining in the state and then sort of back flipping and that's both liberal and labor of both put in um blanket uranium mining band”
Supply of uranium from mining takes approximately the same amount of time to build as nuclear reactor construction, creating a timing mismatch risk where approval of mining and demand from reactor construction don't align.
“It takes takes so long to get nuclear power built takes about the same amount of time to get a uranium mine up and running so there's this risk of us going from underinvestment to overinvestment”
Western Australian governments (both Liberal and Labor) have flip-flopped on uranium mining approval, implementing blanket bans and then reconsidering them, making it difficult for investors to plan.
“in Western Australia you've seen the government really flip-flop between approving um uranium mining in the state and then sort of back flipping and that's both liberal and labor of both put in um blanket uranium mining band”
Niger is a key uranium supply source for France, which relies heavily on nuclear power in Europe, but the new Junta government in Niger has an anti-Western, pro-China/Russia agenda, creating supply chain risk for France.
“niga um this is a key um key supply chain for France which obviously we know is a major um source of of nuclear power in Europe so um the new government came in the Jun government which is very sort of anti-western and has a more pro-china Russia agenda”
Namibia has flagged potential nationalization of uranium mining, creating supply risk for Western uranium sources even though it's an alternative to Kazakhstan/Russia/Niger.
“but even Namibia um has flagged um some M nationalization which um is is is a risk as well”
Australia mines and exports uranium but has not built nuclear power infrastructure, representing the reverse of Canada's situation.
“Australia is the reverse right we haven't got the nuclear power but we mine and Export uranium”
Canada uses significant nuclear power despite having had uranium mining bans in parts of the country, representing a logical inconsistency in policy.
“Canada uses a lot of of nuclear power but parts of Canada had these uranium bands um uranium mining bands”
The opposition (Liberal) party in Western Australia has made lifting uranium mining bans one of its campaign mandates for the upcoming state election (next month from time of recording), which could be a key catalyst for policy change.
“in the state election in West Australia which is coming up next month um the liberal the opposition party has actually um use that as one of its mandates it'll lift uh the BS in Western Australia if it gets into power”
There is cognitive dissonance in Canada's approach to nuclear energy: parts of Canada use nuclear power extensively but had uranium mining bans, while Australia mines and exports uranium but lacks nuclear power infrastructure.
“there's like a cognitive dissonance or or hypocrisy to point out here which is that Canada uses a lot of of nuclear power but parts of Canada had these uranium bands um uranium mining bands. Australia is the reverse right we haven't got the nuclear power but we mine and Export uranium”
Globally, there is growing acceptance that renewable energy lacks the energy density to be competitive for industrial manufacturing, making nuclear baseload power necessary.
“globally there is there is this acceptance that renewable um doesn't have the density to um sort of be competitive for industrial manufacturing so I think you need this cheap Basel load power”
Gold is currently a stronger performer than uranium over the last six months, trading near $3,000 per ounce at record highs, with gold producers also trading at record levels with strong cash flows.
“gold is um probably it's one of the strong performers obviously over the last six months whereas uranium um has been weakening so it's a it's a much different um arena for investors uranium looking more at Value now I think gold is more uh certainly more speculative now that it's um hitting almost $3,000 an ounce uh record highs and a lot of producers which are um which are also trading at highs and record cash flows”
There is cognitive dissonance in Canada's policy: Canada uses significant nuclear power but parts of Canada (including Nova Scotia historically) had uranium mining bans, whereas Australia does the opposite—mines and exports uranium but lacks domestic nuclear power generation.
“there's like a cognitive dissonance or or hypocrisy to point out here which is that Canada uses a lot of of nuclear power but parts of Canada had these uranium bands um uranium mining bands Australia is the reverse right we haven't got the nuclear power but we mine and Export uranium”
China has heavily invested in Kazakhstan and in Kazakhstani uranium mining companies, with significant offtake agreements selling uranium to Chinese firms, creating Asian dominance in global uranium supply.
“Kazakhstan which is the world's largest producer um is really heavily um pegged to China so China's invested a lot in Kazakhstan I think it's invested a lot in the Uranian mining companies in Kazakhstan so there's a lot of big off take agreements um selling um uranium to Chinese firms”
The gold mining technology revolution is analogous to the fracking revolution in natural gas—new technology makes previously uneconomic reserves (old wells in gas, marginal deposits in gold) suddenly viable, creating massive value for companies holding those assets.
“it's sort of like a a fracking Revolution but in the gold market so for gas we had fracking technology come along and make old Wells rapidly more um cost efficient and and effective and produce and higher volumes and of course we made some marginal gas Fields economic thanks to fracking there's a a similar technological Revolution on sort of playing out in the gold market technologically different but it could possibly have the same effect on the gold market”
Rising gold prices and new mining technology are starting to make small gold deposits economically viable for development, creating investment opportunities in junior developers that hold those deposits.
“and just why technology and high prices is starting to um starting to sort of um filter into um the opportunity for some of these small players”
Lifting uranium mining bans in states holding uranium reserves could benefit ASX stocks that are leveraged to uranium and hold tenements in restricted areas with prospective uranium targets.
“how will this affect certain ASX stocks um which are leveraged to uranium but have Stakes so have tenaments in these areas uh in these states um with sort of prospective uranium targets”
Nova Scotia's policy shift toward uranium mining reflects broader government objectives to build economic resilience by capturing value from natural resources, driven partly by rising uranium prices and the Western shift toward nuclear energy.
“the economy it wants to build resilience and it wants to tap into the value um that it has of these resources um and I think the reason that's happening now is because Iranian prices are starting to spike higher”
The policy shift toward uranium mining in Nova Scotia is driven by rising uranium prices and a broader Western narrative that nuclear energy is essential for economic resilience and cheap baseload power, prompting governments to capture resource value rather than maintain restrictions.
“I think the reason that's happening now is because Iranian prices are starting to spike higher um well they they did and they obviously pull back now but I think there's the thesis on uranium and the need for um the West to sort of turn towards nuclear energy and I think that long storm longterm story for Uranium is really building to the minds of those citizens who are then thinking okay now maybe it's we start um capturing value from these resources and build up our economic resilience”
Olympic Dam in South Australia holds huge uranium resources alongside gold and copper, creating byproduct uranium supply that could hit the market if prices rise, adding to hidden uranium supply risks.
“there's Olympic Dam in in South Australia this is also has a huge uh uranium resources as well as gold and copper the iscg deposit um and there's also a number of deposits around the world which have sort of been mining uranium and just stockpiling it um as sort of a byproduct to their primary or which is often copper”
A fundamental advantage of gold over uranium is that the gold market doesn't face oversupply risk like uranium does, making it a safer long-term investment despite near-term price pullback potential.
“one of the great things about gold you're not going to be getting this over Supply like you you get with uranium so that's that's always a good um a good reason to be investing in a commodity”
Junior gold mining stocks have not participated in the recent gold bull market in the way major producers have, despite strong fundamentals, creating opportunity for developer companies holding deposits with capital constraints.
“I think even though prices we could see a pullback at sort of 3,000 and and maybe some profit taking uh over the short term I think over the long term there's still a good good um thesis for gold uh we haven't seen the junior mining stocks really benefit from this this big bull market in Gold it's really just been buling and the producers uh so I think there's there's still a lot of room and opportunity um for developers so companies which own um deposits but haven't been um haven't got access to the capital to actually push these through to development”
Current uranium prices are not high enough to unleash hidden uranium supply (byproducts and stockpiles from gold/copper mining), but this becomes a risk as prices rise.
“I think we're pretty safe at the moment I don't think the price is high enough to kind of unleash this um sort of hidden hidden um supply of uranium but I think um as prices do do get higher I think that that is potentially a risk”
Gold developers—companies that own deposits but lack capital to develop them into producing mines—have been holding assets through multiple market cycles, sitting on deposits that could become economically mineable with rising gold prices and technological improvements.
“so companies which own um deposits but haven't been um haven't got access to the capital to actually push these through to development so they've been sitting on these deposits for probably at least this cycle probably a previous cycle as well”
The world is pointing out the hypocrisy of nuclear-supporting countries banning uranium mining, and this is driving policy changes as nuclear power makes a comeback.
“the world is is pointing out that there's a hypocrisy here and so just as nuclear Powers coming back uranium will come with it”
Given geopolitical concentration of uranium supply (Kazakhstan/Russia/Niger/Namibia risks), the West must rely on Canada and Australia to develop domestic uranium production to ensure supply security.
“so um there's key supply issues but more so for the West um so where is that going to come from it has to be Canada and Australia perhaps nibia but even Namibia um has flagged um some M nationalization which um is is is a risk as well well so um it really does uh leave it up to Australia and Canada and this is where we probably probably need to step up to the plate and do and lift some of these um long-term bands and allow uranium mining to take place”
Technological innovation in gold mining could function similarly to fracking in natural gas—making marginal deposits economical and allowing dormant deposits to be developed economically.
“I think the way I think about this is that it's sort of like a a fracking Revolution but in the gold market so for gas we had fracking technology come along and make old Wells rapidly more um cost efficient and and effective and produce and higher volumes and of course we made some marginal gas Fields economic thanks to fracking there's a a similar technological Revolution on sort of playing out in the gold market technologically different but it could possibly have the same effect on the gold market”
Junior mining stocks and gold developers have not yet materially participated in the current gold bull market, which has been driven primarily by major producers, creating significant upside opportunity.
“we haven't seen the junior mining stocks really benefit from this this big bull market in Gold it's really just been buling and the producers uh so I think there's there's still a lot of room and opportunity um for developers”
Investors should be cautious about buying uranium stocks in states that still have uranium mining bans, regardless of how likely a ban lift appears, due to execution risk.
“would certainly be a really risky trade to just start buying these uranium stocks in a state which still has a a uranium ban”
Gold has been a stronger performer than uranium over the last six months prior to this recording, while uranium has been weakening, making gold currently more speculative while uranium offers better value.
“gold is um probably it's one of the strong performers obviously over the last six months whereas uranium um has been weakening so it's a it's a much different um arena for investors uranium looking more at Value now I think gold is more uh certainly more speculative”
Gold is currently trading near $3,000 per ounce at record highs, with many producers also trading at record highs and record cash flows.
“certainly more speculative now that it's um hitting almost $3,000 an ounce uh record highs and a lot of producers which are um which are also trading at highs and record cash flows”
Despite potential pullback to $3,000 gold due to profit-taking, the long-term thesis for gold remains strong over the medium to long term.
“I think even though prices we could see a pullback at sort of 3,000 and and maybe some profit taking uh over the short term I think over the long term there's still a good good um thesis for gold”
Developer gold mining companies have held deposits for multiple mining cycles without development capital access, sitting idle for at least a decade or more waiting for conditions to improve.
“so they've been sitting on these deposits for probably at least this cycle probably a previous cycle as well”
Companies like Cameco and Arano have uranium ground/tenements in Australian states where uranium mining is currently banned, creating potential upside if bans are lifted.
“I think you could um potentially look at some ASX plays that have um uranium ground and there's a lot there's there's big players there's kamico has has interest there's um arano there's big Uranian players which have sort of”
Namibia, another key uranium supplier, has flagged uranium mining nationalization as a policy possibility, creating additional supply risk for Western uranium sourcing.
“even Namibia um has flagged um some M nationalization which um is is is a risk as well”
Given Western geopolitical supply risks in Kazakhstan, Niger, and Namibia, Canada and Australia must step up and lift uranium mining bans to provide reliable Western supply sources.
“so um it really does uh leave it up to Australia and Canada and this is where we probably probably need to step up to the plate and do and lift some of these um long-term bands and allow uranium mining to take place”
Gold fundamentally avoids oversupply risks that constrain uranium investment, making it a structurally better commodity investment opportunity.
“I think fundamentally one of the great things about gold you're not going to be getting this over Supply like you you get with uranium so that's that's always a good um a good reason to be investing in a commodity”
Current uranium prices are not yet high enough to unleash hidden uranium supply from byproduct mining and other sources, so oversupply risk is currently limited, but prices rising further would trigger supply expansion.
“I think we're pretty safe at the moment I don't think the price is high enough to kind of unleash this um sort of hidden hidden um supply of uranium but I think um as prices do do get higher I think that that is potentially a risk”
Despite gold reaching nearly $3,000/oz and seeing potential short-term profit-taking pullback, there is still a strong long-term thesis for gold investment.
“even though prices we could see a pullback at sort of 3,000 and and maybe some profit taking uh over the short term I think over the long term there's still a good good um thesis for gold”
Mining technology in the gold space is different from natural gas fracking technology but produces a similar effect on economics of marginal deposits.
“there's a a similar technological Revolution on sort of playing out in the gold market technologically different but it could possibly have the same effect on the gold market”
The host lives in the electorate of the Shadow Minister of Energy, who is also on a nuclear power committee, and recently encountered this politician while canvassing/campaigning.
“I actually live in the electorate of the Shadow minister of energy and is also on some sort of committee for for nuclear power and uh a few days ago I was driving past and waving to people as they as they drove past the local bottle shop and uh shouted some abuse about nuclear energy little did I know he's one of the supporters”