The Comeback: The NYT’s Bret Stephens and the GoodFellows Recap the ’24 Election

Mainstream media's worldview is so distorted by the bubble inhabited by journalists and commentators that they report on an America that exists only in elite coastal urban corridors (the 'Acela Corridor') while treating regular Americans like anthropologists studying a recently discovered Amazonian tribe's taboos and shamans.

“they were reporting on an America that uh exists uh in a uh uh in an aella Corridor but nowhere uh nowhere else everyone else in their view as I as I was reading accounts sounded like uh or was treated as a like a a a person in an Amazonian tribe that had recently been discovered by the anthropologists of the mainstream media who you know were studying them for clues about their their system of you know uh taboos and shamans and and and so forth and so on whereas you know the rest of America understands that as as as regular America”

Inflation of 9-10% cumulatively over the Biden-Harris period, representing about 20% total, spoke of complete incompetence in economic policy to everyday Americans, regardless of technical economic debates about its cause.

“inflation of course I'm an economist inflation is big but that really rang in America everyday Americans who maybe don't read uh all the stories about various lawfare escapades but setting off a a 9 to 10% inflation cumulative about 20% over the over the period that just speaks of complete incompetence of your econom IC policy whether it is or not I'll leave to my fellow monetary economists a debate but in the eyes of everyday Americans uh what started in the financial crisis goes on to the retreat from Afghanistan goes on to one catastrophe after obviously not knowing what they're doing with the covid protections and then 10% inflation they're they're voting against incompetence”

The most significant shift in U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War was the China policy reorientation of the first Trump Administration, achieved through integration of defense, diplomatic, and economic teams with people who understood the interconnection of competition with China.

“on the China shift I think it was the most significant shift in US foreign policy since the end end of the Cold War so I do think they are getting deled as you mentioned Neil but I guess you know hopefully they're Adept at at separating the wheat from the chaff and and getting the most important ideas in front of the in front of the president elect you know uh before you know before he uh he gets sworn in in January”

Voters rejected the 2024 Democratic campaign because of lawfare (use of the justice system against political opponents), regulatory state weaponization, and censorship as tools of government; the obvious political prosecution of Trump kept him in public consciousness and paradoxically revived his candidacy rather than ending it.

“a big vote against lawfare uh maybe I'm I'm guilty of um projecting my own annoyances but um the use of the justice system the regulatory State uh censorship to go after political opponents I found appalling and I think many of my fellow Americans did too Donald Trump should have been retired to maral Lago about February uh after the last election and the Democrats brought him back because when you go after him with such obviously trumped up charges Americans go my country is not Pakistan my country is not Tunisia it is uh you don't when you lose an election you don't lose your job your business your life uh your your freedom uh so such transparent misuse of the justice system for political aims”

Trump's first-term median household income growth (adjusted for inflation) was 2.09% compound annual growth, compared to Biden at -0.44%, Obama at 0.45%, and George W. Bush at -0.22%, making Trump's first term by far the best presidential economic run since Richard Nixon.

“very simple Point very simple Point Let's Get aam's razor right here if you look at uh median household income adjusted for inflation for every president since Richard Nixon Donald Trump's first term was by far the best presidential run 2.09% compound annual growth Biden 44% Obama 045 Bush Jr minus .22”

The Democratic Party under the Biden-Harris administration has become a party of incessant moralizing, dismissal of everyday American concerns including working-class issues, adherence to bizarre cultural norms, insistence on new language and terminology that sounds Orwellian to many, and division of the country into identity groups rather than unity or overcoming separate identities.

“this election was uh an extraordinary personal Vindication for uh president Trump but it was also a stinging stunning decisive repudiation of what the Democratic party uh under uh this Administration and really since since Barack Obama Obama's time has has become uh which is which is a party of a kind of incessant moralizing a dismissal of the everyday concerns of uh the American people including or particularly workingclass uh Americans a a party that uh increasingly bends or adheres to a bizarre set of cultural norms that strike Americans wrong a party that insists on uh a new kind of language terminology in everyday life that uh to many of us just sounds uh uh orwellian a party that is more interested in dividing uh the country into different identity groups rather than uh uh rather than uniting it or overcoming those those separate identities”

Kamala Harris conceded the election, explicitly rejected unfounded claims about Russian interference or voter suppression, and called for a peaceful transfer of power—a return to normal democratic procedure that stands in contrast to concerns about potential post-election chaos.

“we've spent um a year or two here on Good Fellows worrying about what was going to happen after a close election and how it would tear the country apart to the point that to say something nice about camela Harris I heard her speech and and she conceded the election no Russia stole it no voter suppression no it was all racist no we lost uh and said a little toop pointedly peaceful transfer of power”

Mainstream media exhibited transparent partisan bias by failing to cover potential Harris campaign vulnerabilities while running essentially continuous endorsement coverage of her candidacy; the Washington Post's hand-wringing over its lack of endorsement revealed institutional partisan capture by left-wing staff masquerading as journalists.

“mainstream media did not acquit itself uh particularly uh well I mean I thought it was hilarious that at the Washington Post they were nashing their teeth at the lack of an endorsement which number one just uh exhibited if there was any doubt that the paper was stuffed with left-wing partisans masquerading as uh uh as as journalist but also because it was impossible to read The Washington Post without noticing that every uh you know every article was essentially an advertisement for for kamla Harris they were they were reporting on an America that uh exists uh in a uh uh in an aella Corridor but nowhere uh nowhere else”

Every major pollster massively understated Trump's margin of victory in 2024; only the prediction market (Poly Market) got it right, yet despite this pattern repeating from 2016 and 2020, pundits continued to rely on polling rather than prediction markets.

“and it's hard to think of any pundit who saw this coming only the poly Market prediction Market got it right every poster massively understated the margin of Victory and it's weird that we we were taken in by that since they understated his performance in the last two elections so I don't know why we didn't expect them to do it again”

Trump has a current of darkness and personal paranoia that could undermine his administration; he has an irrepressible tendency toward retribution and vengeance; his inner circle has described how shambolic his administration was run; and septuagenarian men 'are who they are,' suggesting limited capacity for character change.

“I think the lesson of the first Trump Administration is Trump has one enemy that's even bigger than the Deep State or the Democratic media complex that enemy is himself right um you know this is a man who just can't help but Step On His own dick to use an old expression and um uh and and so the the instincts for Retribution Vengeance for the the kind of personal paranoia that he seems to display uh that's just an irrepressible side of his character which is why you know one of the reasons I had deep misgivings about him uh even in this even in this second run uh because he there there there's there there's a current of Darkness there I mean there's just no getting around it and that was I think that came out when you saw so many of the people who had been in his inner circle describe you know the sort of shambolic ways in which he ran his shop”

Three Stoic disciplines determine presidential effectiveness: (1) 'discipline of perception'—ability to 'understand the complex challenges we're facing take in a broad range of views and multiple options and make effective decisions'; (2) 'discipline of action'—'organizational leadership capabilities' to 'drive the effect of change' and ensure people understand their roles; (3) 'discipline of will'—ability to 'ignore the noise' and 'focus on what he can control' to avoid becoming 'the antagonist in his own story.'

“what we've been talking about is the effectiveness of a second Trump Administration and I think that will depend in large measure on what epicus observed which is you know this is what is most important to understand well the role assigned you will the president and the people he hires understand what their roles are under the Constitution and it will also depend I think on on the three disciplines that the sto philosophers identified will president Trump have the discipline of perception will he be able to understand the complex challenges we're facing take in a broad range of views and multiple options and make effective decisions I write in my book that he's capable of doing that but of course that depends on people around him understanding their roles and serving him well uh the second is does he have discipline of action will he have the organizational leadership capabilities uh to be able to drive the effect of change in in the organization he's not one really to get into the details of who's responsible for what and so forth but will the chief of staff will the National Security advisor will the National Economic uh head the NEC will will you will these people help him be effective in in in in the discipline of action getting things done and then the third and Brett mentioned this in particular will he have the discipline of will will he be able to ignore the noise will he be able to take you Aristotle's advice you know and focus on what he can control so that he can get as much done as he can and and stop you know becoming the antagonist in his own story”

The first Trump Administration rhetoric was wild but the policy was strong; Trump was not 'Putin's poodle' despite claims, as the administration opposed Russia more than Obama or Biden did at least until the Ukraine invasion; this positive policy outcome depended heavily on advisers like HR McMaster and Mike Pompeo, and the new Trump circle is more isolationist.

“I think one of the reasons why people when they think about the first Trump Administration feel fairly good about it is that the rhetoric was often wild but the policy was pretty good you know I mean the the people said oh he was Trump's poodle but but or excuse me Trump was Putin's poodle but in fact uh the administration did more to oppose Russia than either Obama had before it or uh certainly Biden did at least until the invasion of of Ukraine but that I think had a lot to do with the fact that he was surrounded by advisers like HR or uh his uh his uh secret his Mike Pompeo and so on what you hear from the new kind of trump dispensation are people who are much more isolationist in their leadings”

The Democratic Party has learned nothing from three consecutive losses (presumably 2016, 2020 contested outcome, and 2024) and needs a figure like Bill Clinton or a centrist Southern governor like Andy Beshear to restore electoral viability, as the party did in the 1980s-1990s with the Democratic Leadership Council.

“I think of the democratic party between 1980 and 1992 I mean they were so convinced they were right and it took the Democratic Leadership Council it took a figure like Bill Clinton and it took three uh stinging stinging Landslide defeats before they started to think that they needed to uh reorder their priorities uh the the the salvation for the Democratic party I think in the end is going to come from someone like Andy Basher some Centrist Southern governor who talks the language of normal Americans and uh uh and understands just how toxic the current culture of of liberal life is to democratic fortunes”

There is a fundamental divide in American governance between the 'economy of words' (lawyers, academics, rule-makers, bureaucrats, publishers) and the 'economy of things' (real estate, trucking, manufacturers); the governing class increasingly inhabits only the economy of words and has no understanding of regulatory burden on business, making Trump's business background valuable.

“a a an Administration that fundamentally understands what it is like to uh conduct business in America uh is is something the country sorely needs you I've been saying for a long time that there are essentially two economies in America there's an economy of Words which I inhabit that's the economy of uh lawyers academics uh rules makers in the in the bureaucracies uh Publishers and so on and there's an economy of things uh uh real estate guys truckers you know uh uh big big manufacturers and so on and you know the economy of Words which increasingly is the governing class in America has no clue what it's like to be in the economy of things because you know when I decide where a semicolon should go there isn't a government bureaucrat asking me to justify the semicolon in a in a seven-page uh uh uh document so that it can meet with with his approval in Washington but if you're running even a midsize company in America you know not even a midsize company in America the land of Regulation that you inhabit is is fearsome and I like the fact that a Trump trump knows in his bones from having live this in New York you know what it means to build a hotel in and and get the permitting that you need”

American politics has become pathologically obsessive and the country now suffers from 'the first addiction to politics ever seen in history,' with excessive campaign length, doom-scrolling through election results, and media consumption of political news at levels that are not normal.

“I I think America suffers from too much politics I've come to the conclusion that it's actually got out of control and you've developed what might be the first addiction to politics that has yet uh been seen in in the annals of History because politics shouldn't be this compelling it shouldn't be this engaging when they invented the internet I don't think anybody foresaw that its principal use after of course pornography would be the consumption of news that Dooms scrolling through election results I wonder what happened in Pennsylvania I mean it's just not normal”

It is 'bad practice' to have military and retired national security officials publicly endorse candidates in their official capacity, and doing so endangers military institutions by dragging them into partisan politics at a time when the military needs to maintain confidence across the political spectrum to recruit the best young Americans.

“it's one of the reasons why I wrote the book the way I did is because I wanted to tell the story but nobody needs like washed up generals telling them how to vote and and I think that this effort to drag the military into partisan politics with like the lists of remember you all the National Security officials it really was who was signed on to that letter uh or to get you know to get you retired generals and so forth to to endorse really in the capacity of of a retired General it's not a new practice but I think it's particularly dangerous these days because of how you know polarized we've been and and the need for the military to transcend the partisan politics to to maintain the the confidence of the American people across the political spectrum because depending on what the politics of particular households are we need the best Young Americans to serve in our Armed Forces”

Kamala Harris was a spectacularly incompetent candidate, which should not have surprised anyone given her record as a terrible manager with a dreadful office during her vice presidency, her hilariously incompetent 2019 presidential campaign, her communication of unearned entitlement, and her instant anointing by Democrats despite this track record.

“we have to stop and consider and and Marvel at what a spectacularly incompetent candidate kamla Harris was and this was should not have been a surprise to anyone I wrote a column back in July she's a terrible manager she had she had a a a dreadful office as vice president she ran one of the most hilariously incompetent campaigns in uh in 2019 she communicated a certain sense of unearned entitlement and this is the PE person that the Democrats instantly anointed as their preferred candidate and people are surprised she lost I don't know why”

Second terms in American history are structurally difficult and often disastrous; Nixon's second term ended in Watergate resignation, George W. Bush's second term ended in financial crisis; even Reagan had Iran-Contra; Trump's second term will likely follow this pattern of decline despite current optimism, as midterms typically mark the beginning of lame-duck phase.

“second terms are different from first terms uh and second terms are often quite disastrous uh of course Nixon was the supremely disastrous second term win a landslide and then descend into the melstrom of Watergate and resignation but it it's hard to think of a really terrific second term if you go through the list uh think back to George W Bush's second term which ended in the melstrom of the global financial crisis so I'm to offer Reagan had a very good second term even despite A Rang contract I'm was going to say Iran contate wasn't exactly great fun and so it feels to me as if the the base case is just that it's a second term and although there's glad confident morning in Trump land and I confess to uh in indulging in some of that myself because I just couldn't abide the idea of camela Harris as president I do not know how you could bring yourself to vote for camela Harris's president but I I I have enjoyed the defeat of the woke Progressive wing of the Democratic Party hugely but glad confident mourning in politics tends not to last terribly long and it'll be a second term and by the midterms it'll kind of feel like we're the lame we're in the lame duck phase”

The 2024 election was primarily a Vibes election, not a detailed policy plan election; voters were not evaluating specific policy platforms but rather responding to vague expectations about future direction and a feeling that the Trump campaign embodied belief in the country and forward-looking opportunity, including SpaceX and Mars ambitions, rather than a return to 1950s-style protectionism.

“it wasn't it was a Vibes election not a detailed policy plan election much as you know within the White Halls of Hoover we love to debate detailed policy plans there weren't any and I don't think anybody cared about them anyway there was sort of an expectation of what's going to come but not what the president said uh The Vibes were important what are we voting against and for uh I I think four is not so much the person of Donald Trump he he embodies a vision but uh but Vibes of we believe in our country and and we want spaceships to Mars uh bringing Elon Musk along was a very forward looking um sign it's not just tariffs to bring back the 1950s it's it's opportunity”

The 'big story' that's being missed is 'not Trump gets elected he's acknowledged the president he appoints people the Senate confirms them we Implement policy with inter agency memos'—rather, the question is whether 'the Democrats just going to sit back quietly or is this going to be the resistance uh Russia collusion' and whether inside agencies they will 'refuse to go along,' creating 'complete chaos.'

“I'm still a little worried that we're missing the big story which is not Trump gets elected he's acknowledged the president he appoints people the Senate confirms them we Implement policy with inter agency memos uh you know what and this is Brett has a bigger finger on the uh on the pulse you're in that bubble uh are the Democrats just going to sit back quietly or is this going to be the resistance uh Russia collusion uh if they get the house are they going to say no we're not certifying the election um and inside the agencies is it going to be um the same kind of if we refus to go along uh just how much complete chaos do you see coming out of the Democrats”

Elon Musk's entry into American politics is the single most significant thing that happened in the 2024 election because he is the owner of a major social media platform and the most important entrepreneur in America, giving him unprecedented leverage; he needed Trump to win to avoid government retaliation for his political views, creating mutual dependence.

“the entry of Elon Musk into American politics is the single most significant thing that happened in this election because it's a phenomenal game Cher when the owner of one of the major social media platforms and the single most important entrepreneur in America comes down unequivocally on one side politically and then campaigns with President Trump and spends election night sitting with Trump obviously talking about what they do next”

If Democrats follow Brett Stevens's advice to conduct normal opposition politics rather than resistance politics, they can improve their position; but if they continue to treat Trump as a mortal threat to democracy and engage in resistance tactics, they will continue losing because such tactics feed Trump's narrative of an entrenched, manipulative deep state.

“uh I have been urging as I did in my column yesterday that the Democrats understand how utterly counterproductive resistance politics uh is I mean this is this is actually the oxygen off of which a political figure like Donald Trump and his movement feed because after all you know what is their brand we are up against an entrenched secretive manipulative dishonest and disgusting deep state that is trying to stop us at every turn and that Democrats helpfully oblige them by behaving like a dishonest disgusting deceitful manipulative deep state right so uh uh you know Democrats need to find a way to conduct normal politics against Trump in the way that opposition parties do without attempting those kind of uh extra legal or dubious uh Maneuvers that have typified the way they've treated Trump since almost uh almost the very beginning”

The election was an 'extraordinary personal Vindication' for Trump but also 'a stinging stunning decisive repudiation' of the Democratic Party under the Biden-Harris Administration and since Obama's time.

“this election was uh an extraordinary personal Vindication for uh president Trump but it was also a stinging stunning decisive repudiation of what the Democratic party uh under uh this Administration and really since since Barack Obama Obama's time”

Even the Democratic left is recognizing that regulation is a problem because they discovered it takes 10 years to get permits to connect windmills and solar panels to the grid, and housing costs are driven by permitting delays, creating potential common ground on deregulation.

“the Democrats are also finding out that regulation is a problem they found it out when they wanted to connect uh windmills and solar panels to the grid and and figured out it's going to take 10 years to get the permit and you know that's when the climate catastrophe hits they've figured out finally that housing the problem with house prices is it takes too many too long to get the permits to build up housing so I think there is this will even from the left uh to to do something about that”

There is a fundamental tension in Trump's economic team between free-market/deregulation economists and protectionists; the deregulation agenda (cutting red tape, accelerating permits, removing regulatory burden) is where 'good stuff happens under the radar screen,' while tariff barriers are the visible protectionist position; the presence of Wall Street figures constrains protectionist excess because Trump cares about stock market performance.

“I think there is going to be a tension there's a lot of people in the wings and in the Trump orbit who are very good free market free trade deregulation economists and I think the vibe with Elon Musk is a Vibe not that what we need to do is erect huge protective barriers and bring back a museum of 1950s manufacturing but we need spaceships to Mars we need to we need to stop being a country where as musk says it takes longer to get the permits to launch a rocket than it does to design build and light the damn rocket uh and I think uh that that kind of thing happens under the radar screen that's where good stuff happens outside of RA rhetoric so there may be we'll see who wins there's of course the the protectionists throw up the the trade barriers view uh and there's going to be an interesting debate uh hr's book wonderful book uh brought some of the elements of that debate from the first time around”

Trump's political comeback is without parallel in American history because he was subjected to attempted impeachment destruction, assassination attempts (one of which nearly killed him), four criminal cases (one resulting in conviction), two impeachments, and numerous lawsuits—all of which far exceed what Richard Nixon faced during his downfall.

“they tried to destroy Donald Trump during and after his first term and they tried to destroy him every which way let's not forget the assassination attempts one of which very nearly killed him uh four criminal cases in one of which he was convicted two impeachments uh during his first term and so many different lawsuits that when I tried to count them up I I really lost count”

Gavin Newsom is 'at the top of the betting markets right now' as the likely Democratic presidential nominee for 2028, and while he 'led impeachment,' the expectation is that he 'would not be good' in managing the Democratic Party's future.

“I say it not uh uh because I think uh it would be uh I think it would be good it would be a mutually good thing for for for all of North America let let a socialist republic in California take root and the rest of us will live a slightly more contented life okay well I mentioned Nome because if you go to the betting markets right now he is at the top of the betting markets right now”

Trump's incoming cabinet and leadership team will likely include people like Tom Cotton (Defense), Bill Hagerty (State/Treasury), and Marco Rubio, who are aligned on countering Chinese economic aggression and integrating defense, diplomatic, and economic strategies; the most critical unconfirmed position is National Security Advisor, which requires someone who guards the president's independent judgment rather than advocating preferred policies.

“I just think it's it's the overall team and how well that team can work together and by the team I mean the defense diplomatic and economic teams because today's competitions are so intertwined and and and demand the integrated uh the you know the uh the integration of all elements of National Power with efforts of of like-minded Partners internationally and so you know I I think you know that he's got some great people to pick from you know if you think about Could It Be Tom Cotton in defense paired with Bill Hagerty in state or you know and and uh or or in Treasury and and um you know I think that leiser is like-minded with them in terms of the the of countering Chinese economic aggression for example”

Democratic administrations (Biden, Harris, Obama) lack understanding of negotiation leverage because their leaders have never had private-sector jobs and 'certainly haven't had jobs uh in in the things economy which is what makes America traditionally what made America great' and appeals to people about capitalism.

“under Democratic administrations it's never visible because Joe Biden has literally except for when he was raking in money from speeches for for four years years during his uh his uh his sabatical from government has never had a job as far as I know in in the private sector KLA Harris has never had a job in in in the private sector most Democrats I know have never had one and they certainly haven't had jobs uh in in the things economy which is what makes America traditionally what made America great and it's what appeal to people about you know capitalism”

Trump's McDonald's campaign event—serving fries in a McDonald's uniform—was a brilliant political move that won the election, demonstrating superior campaign creativity and nimbleness compared to Kamala Harris's old-school Democratic campaign relying on celebrity endorsements and legacy media.

“I just want to add to that and and it's not just a carefully scripted word salad that came out of Kamala the I think he won the election when he went to McDonald's and served fries what a brilliant item”

JD Vance represents a view that Russia can be 'pryed away' from the Chinese orbit as a geopolitical chess piece, similar to Nixon's opening to China in the 1970s but in reverse; he will likely play a significant role in Trump's second term and whether he has fixed convictions beyond immediate political ambitions is unclear.

“I mean people who are much more isolationist in their leadings uh kind of see Russia as a potential future Ally in a chess board to contain uh to contain the Chinese see see Russia is in a sense like almost the opposite of of China in the 19 early 1970s as as a piece that can be Pride away from the Chinese orbit uh uh Bridge kby represents uh this View and I think he's going to play some significant role in in a second Trump term so we'll find out very quickly where Trump intends intends to go and just how much influence JD has in in those deliberations I also knowing JD slightly and at least watching his trajectory uh I wonder whether he has any fixed convictions at all in this respect Beyond his immediate political Ambitions”

On Ukraine, Trump will not repeat Biden's Afghanistan-style cut-and-run because he understands that appearing weak damages his personal brand; he is a negotiator who gets better deals when the other side feels under pressure rather than when he announces in advance that he wants to negotiate and get out, and the Powell Doctrine of either fighting to win or not fighting applies.

“so it's not obvious that when You Face Reality the right thing to do with Ukraine is sit down and say oh let's negotiate now while while Putin feels he has the other hand and I do think um you know even channeling JD Vance his his people fought these wars and and they were not very successful uh but the lesson I still like the Powell Doctrine you either fight it to win or you don't fight it at all um so um fight it to win especially in Israel might be uh what comes out we'll we'll see what comes out there”

The Democratic Party's overnight message shift supporting Harris (similar to the 1984 quote 'We have always been at war with Eastasia') revealed the 'instantly anointed' nature of her nomination and a party discipline that suggested partisan loyalty override coherent messaging.

“the party line switched overnight including your newspaper about how wonderful she was all of a sudden well it was it was like it was like that that scene in 1984 we've always been at war against East Asia I mean you're Asia whatever”

Musk's political voice brings 'a a voice and a Persona to a movement that was already uh quite well underway in the little technocratic bubbles of of of um you know Republican uh economic uh politics' but represents something new to mainstream politics.

“it's quite significant I think he just he brings a a voice and a Persona to a movement that was already uh quite well underway in the little technocratic bubbles of of of um you know Republican uh economic uh politics but um but it is that is something that's happening”

Trump's second term could avoid the disastrous second-term pattern if it has 'an unmistakable mandate' (which this 2024 election provides), is not exhausted (unlike most second terms), 'has a very clear idea of what it is that they want to accomplish,' and has 'the legislative uh wherewithal to accomplish those things'—conditions that 'seem very energetic' in this case.

“because he's coming in for the first time with an unmistakable mandate there's no question this is not a fluke of of you know which counties voted where that got him into the off into office the first term and because there's a certain kind of like there's a sense that this is like the age of trump in the way that we had the age of Reagan or the age of FDR um that there's there's going to be more uh energy and initiative this time around I mean one of the reasons second terms often fail is because the team is exhausted uh you know by the time they kind of slink into their fifth year uh this does not seem to me the case uh right now at all they seem very energetic uh they have a very clear idea of what it is that they want to accomplish they have it seems like the legislative uh wherewithal to accomplish those things”

There is uncertainty about how much of a real fiscal mandate Trump has for cutting federal spending: while Elon Musk's DOGE proposal to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget came late in the campaign and voters may not have paid much attention to it.

“there's not much there particularly on the fiscal side that I can find unless you believe the kind of last minute idea that Elon Musk is going to set up the do and cut $2 trillion from the federal budget now that came in pretty late in the day and I'm not sure how many voters paid attention to it but it's worth thinking about because up until this point in his career Donald Trump has not been notable for taking our fiscal problems seriously”

The Trump campaign was highly effective at rapid meme creation and dissemination, particularly after the Madison Square Garden event when a comedian made a Puerto Rico joke; within hours, Trump appeared in Wisconsin in a garbage truck vest delivering a speech, amplified by Biden's own accidental assist on the same topic.

“this is really a question for you Brad it strikes me what's interesting about the Trump campaign is is is that it combined the traditional I mean the hamburger stunt was old school politics uh the rallies are almost a 19th century style of of campaigning with the novel in particular the memes I was impressed at how fast the Trump campaign was able to get uh the memes out particularly towards the end when things were getting kind of funny after the Madison Square Garden uh event the rally uh when a comedian made a joke about Puerto Rico as a as a garbage uh Island uh within just hours Trump was in a garbage truck uh in Wisconsin and delivered an entire speech in the garbage man's vest and got he got an assist from uh President Biden with that though too who completely signicant”

If Trump goes after his enemies using lawfare tools, it will paradoxically turn Democrats into civil libertarians defending free speech and constitutional protections; alternatively, if Trump pardons Biden or stops prosecuting Hunter Biden, it could reset norms around using the justice system for political purposes.

“Trump will either go after his enemies uh using he'll say oh look at all these wonderful tools of lawfare uh handy for me to use them if that happens I am optimistic it will turn the Democrats into sudden come to Jesus civil Libertarians wait a minute the Supreme Court's protections that you can't uh you can't prosecute a former president for things he did in office that was a wonderful thing uh we need to yeah free speech all of a sudden y the First Amendment that's really important when Trump T tries to uh tries to use censorship alternatively Trump could as as you mentioned pardon uh Biden um stop Prosecuting the hunter Biden case although that one actually has some legal basis unlike the previous ones but uh you know when do we put the lawfare aside and say no we're not we're not going to bring guns to the next fist fight”

The 2024 election represents a potential turning point in the ideological trajectory that began in the French Revolution and continued through Marx and contemporary leftism, characterized by paternalistic authoritarianism and rule-by-propaganda in the name of the people; Europe (Georgia, Italy, Argentina's Javier Milei) is already recognizing that growth requires abandoning this trajectory.

“is it finally the Turning of the tide of this great movement that started maybe in the French Revolution picked up some steam with Marx the uh you know and currently is is paternalistic authoritarian aristocratic we must rule in in uh and it's quite authoritarian we we must rule in the name of the little people there's this word salad of um propaganda which I can't tell whether they cynically don't believe it anymore the first sign of uh uh failing or whether they actually believe the craziness that comes out of the party line uh every week um I I was very amused that HR told us that his predecessors called him to tell him that the number one strategic challenge of the United States was climate change”

A decisive Trump victory (rather than a contested election) was strategically beneficial for the United States because 'Russia in particular wanted' large numbers of Americans 'to doubt the legitimacy of the result'—and a decisive outcome prevented that.

“the best thing that could have happened was this kind of a decisive Victory because really what Russia in particular wanted is large numbers of Americans to doubt the legitimacy of the result and they're not going to get that at least so I think what's really important is how we behave”

The Trump Administration transition in 2016 was chaotic compared to the 2024 transition, but it still produced good work through Landing Teams that assessed agency conditions and made recommendations about priorities, with people like Matt Pottinger laying the foundation for significant shifts in policy toward North Korea and China.

“I came in after the initial transition which I heard was a very you know very uh chaotic but a lot of good work got done in that transition with with some people who had been working with uh the transition teams you know they they put together these Landing teams that go into each of the Departments and agencies who assess really based on what they believe that you know the president's priorities are the the current state of affairs and make recommendations about the transition that's going to be happening very soon I think the campaign is much more better much better organized than it was uh in 2016 which you know may have been a low bar but a lot of good work done got done because they brought in people like Matt pottinger you know who actually laid the foundation for a fundamental shift in in uh in Trump Administration uh policy and approach to North Korea as well as China”

Harris's campaign messaging of 'Joy' was 'the most sanctimonious Joy' and exemplified a kind of preachy moralism that alienated voters rather than energized them.

“hers was the campaign of Joy remember uh the most sanctimonious Joy I've ever seen”