General David Petraeus: Dispatches from Munich
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General David Petraeus served more than 37 years in the U.S. military with six consecutive commands, five of which were combat, including command of the Multi-National Force-Iraq during the Surge, U.S. Central Command, and Coalition and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan. He is a partner in the KKR global investment firm and chairs the firm’s global institute
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Petraeus argues that while the Munich Security Conference revealed diplomatic drama and European anxiety, the emerging security architecture for Ukraine—centered on security guarantees without US boots on the ground, potential NATO membership triggers, and seizure of Russian assets—offers a path to viable ceasefire and positions Ukraine as Europe's military-industrial powerhouse in drone manufacturing and defense technology.
- Security guarantees, not US ground forces, can credibly deter Russian violations using NATO-based intelligence and long-range assets
- Ukraine's drone innovation ecosystem produces tomorrow's technology far more rapidly than US procurement, with 1.5M drones annually and fiber-optic command links solving Russian jamming
- European rearmament (moving toward 3% GDP on defense) and Ukrainian territorial occupation of Kursk create new leverage points in negotiations
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Ukraine has adapted to Russian electronic warfare and jamming by rolling out fiber optic cable (very thin and light) from drones to maintain communications, command, control, and visual picture as they operate.
“they're avoiding the jamming they're literally rolling out fiber optic cable very very thin very light and so forth from the Drone as it goes out so that they can maintain Communications command and control uh the visual uh picture and so forth uh that's how they're getting around the increasingly effective Russian electronic warfare posture jamming air defense and so on”
The vested interests of the military-industrial-Congressional complex, as Senator McCain described it, want to continue existing platforms, basing arrangements, manufacturing, and maintenance, creating structural resistance to learning from Ukraine's technological innovations.
“we absolutely have to overhaul our system noting that there are vested interests in the military industrial Congressional complex as Senator McCain used to describe it that that are want to continue to have existing platforms existing basing Arrangements existing manufacturing and maintenance and all the rest of that”
There has to be a security guarantee for Ukraine as part of any negotiated outcome; the question is what form it will take and whether it will be led by a US Commander or Europeans.
“I think there will be a security guarantee I think there has to be a security guarantee the question is what it will look like um whether a US Commander might be dual hated uh in leading it or if it will be led by Europeans it's that kind of question”
Ukraine has demonstrated the first-ever complete unmanned systems attack in December (uncrewed aerial, ground robotic systems and vehicles all remotely operated), representing a historic military innovation.
“back in December the ukrainians conducted the first ever complete unmanned systems attack it's never been done in history that we know of uh all remotely operated uh aerial and various ground robotic systems and vehicles”
Ukraine's latest drone adaptation uses fiber optic cable deployed from drones to maintain command, control, and visual communication while avoiding increasingly effective Russian electronic warfare and jamming.
“they're avoiding the jamming they're literally rolling out fiber optic cable very very thin very light and so forth from the Drone as it goes out so that they can maintain Communications command and control uh the visual uh picture and so forth uh that's how they're getting around the increasingly effective Russian electronic warfare posture jamming air defense”
A security guarantee must be at the center of any negotiated settlement for Ukraine, and the question is not whether one exists but what form it takes—including potential NATO membership triggers, automatic seizure of $300 billion in Russian assets, and military response architecture.
“I can't imagine that you Ukraine could agree to anything that did not include a robust security guarantee the question is what could be in it uh be just beyond a military response uh could it include for example automatic seizure of the $300 billion dollar of Russian assets sitting in European Banks could it include an automatic path to Nato membership for Ukraine all of this in addition to whatever the military action might be taken by a probably a coalition of the willing”
A security guarantee for Ukraine does not require US boots on the ground in Ukraine; instead, it could be structured as NATO architecture with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets tied into Ukrainian intelligence systems, establishing trigger mechanisms for response if Russians violate a demilitarized zone.
“the ukrainians have a very substantial force on the ground they can prevent any rapid Uh Russian uh offensive from achieving much just as they have been for many many months...could you have an architecture it's essentially a NATO or again us or Coalition of the Willing kill chain could you have lots of intelligence surveillance reconnaissance assets over Ukraine uh tied into the Ukrainian intelligence system a close length there so that you absolutely know uh without question if the Russians come across whatever the militarized Zone might be established or shoot across it”
A contact group model similar to previous versions could include the US, EU High Representative, UK, Germany, France, and possibly Italy, as an alternative to having all NATO members at the negotiating table.
“perhaps at some point there could be a thought about a contact group such as we have seen before where the US has at the table say the EU High rep uh the UK Germany France maybe Italy something like that uh but again we'll see how this how this aspect of this plays out”
The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, following the 2014 occupation, has been the primary real catalyst for European nations increasing defense spending rather than US political pressure from various presidents.
“the big threat the real reason the real Catalyst for additional spending in recent years has not just been that President Obama or Biden or Trump one or bush even was pushing them to spend more it's the uh Russian fullscale invasion of Ukraine first the occupation of territory in 2014 then the full scale invasion of course now almost three years ago”
Ukraine currently manufactures far more drones than it can afford to deploy, and could export them now if it had funding and orders, but President Zelenskyy wisely restricted exports early in the war to prioritize domestic battlefield use.
“Ukraine has the ability to manufacture far more drones than it is able to currently and potentially with the end of the war will then be able to export that drones”
Russia cannot replace lost hardware because they are already drawing from old stocks that have been refurbished and redeployed, forcing them to rely increasingly on infantry attacks, which raises questions about whether Russia can continue recruiting men willing to fight in a lethal battlefield.
“the Russians also can't replace the hard wear now that they're losing the armored systems and so on uh they've already well into the old stocks that they had that have been refurbished and brought back on the battlefield and they just can't they're actually now in many cases just using infantry for the attacks uh and of course probably reflecting their concern about whether they can continue to recruit Uh Russian men willing to go into this uh very lethal Battlefield”
Ukraine represents approximately 20% of global grain exports (not production), and clearing the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the western Black Sea has restored Ukraine's ability to export grain to countries like Egypt and North Africa that are heavily dependent on Ukrainian food security.
“they're somewhere in the order of 20 or more percent of grain exports not grain production but exports um and by the way the clearing out of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the Western Black Sea forced by this combination of aerial and Maritime Ukrainian drones uh has meant that they're once again able to export to countries like Egypt and North Africa other other North African countries that are so highly dependent uh on Ukraine for their very uh food security”
Maritime Ukrainian drones have sunk one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and forced the final Russian ship out of the centuries-occupied Port of Sebastopol in Crimea.
“Maritime drones that have sunk onethird of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and forc the final Russian ship out of the centuries occupied Port of Sebastopol in Prima”
During the Cold War, the US maintained small NATO forces (such as the rifle company in Vicenza, Italy mentioned by Petraeus) positioned to trigger US involvement by dying against Soviet invasion, but modern circumstances don't require this sacrifice mechanism.
“as a second Lieutenant I was a rifle pattil here an air War Battalion in Venza Italy we were actually going to jump in to parts of NATO where there were not large NATO forces say Eastern Turkey the Turkish thce but where the Soviet Union could come into NATO territory literally to make sure I guess that we were going to die and bring the us into the fight uh you don't need to do that”
European NATO members are facing unprecedented pressure to spend 3% or more of GDP on defense (up from the 2% Wales Summit commitment), with NATO Secretary General using 'north of 3%' language, driven primarily by Russian invasion of Ukraine and new members joining post-invasion.
“there have never been as many as right now that actually do meet the 2% of GDP on defense it was agreed way back you know couple decades ago at the Wales Summit um and but clearly enormous pressure on them to do more a recognition the Secretary General of NATO uh that it's probably going to have to be 3% north of 3% I think was the term that he used”
Ukraine throws thousands of suicide drones at Russian forces on the front lines every day, with hundreds more that are out and coming back after 12 or 15 missions, and dozens going into Russian airspace nightly to attack energy refineries, storage locations, and strategic airfields.
“they are throwing thousands of suicide drones at the Russians on the front lines every day there are hundreds more that are going out and coming back at least for 12 or 15 missions until they're shot down they're dozens going into Russian airspace every night going after the Russian uh energy refineries the storage locations sometimes strategic airfields and so on”
Never before have as many NATO nations met the 2% GDP defense spending benchmark as currently, though the NATO Secretary General is now calling for spending north of 3% of GDP due to the threat from Russia.
“there have never been as many as right now that actually do meet the 2% of GDP on defense it was agreed way back you know couple decades ago at the Wales Summit um and but clearly enormous pressure on them to do more a recognition the Secretary General of NATO uh that it's probably going to have to be 3% north of 3% I think was the term that he used”
North Korea has deployed 10,000 troops to support Russian operations; Ukraine attacked into the area where these North Korean forces were concentrated and still holds half of the territory seized, with North Korean forces experiencing catastrophic casualties.
“they actually have had 10,000 North Koreans on the battlefield and cursed that area in Russia uh that Ukraine attacked into and still holds half of what it was They seized and those North Koreans have been absolutely slaughtered”
President Trump floated an idea that Ukraine would sign over $500 billion worth of strategic minerals to the US in return for several hundred billion dollars in US aid, with much of the aid already spent to replenish US ammunition stocks.
“president Trump floated an idea that uh Ukraine would sign over $500 billion worth of strategic minerals and so forth to the US in return for the whatever it is couple hundred uh billion that they've actually gotten from the US keep in mind that much of these Aid packages has actually been spent in the US uh to replenish our own stocks with more modern Munitions”
Russia cannot replace military hardware it is losing on the battlefield and has exhausted modern stocks, now deploying refurbished older equipment and increasingly relying on infantry-only attacks, reflecting recruitment constraints for new combat personnel.
“the Russians also can't replace the hard wear now that they're losing the armored systems and so on uh they've already well into the old stocks that they had that have been refurbished and brought back on the battlefield and they just can't they're actually now in many cases just using infantry for the attacks uh and of course probably reflecting their concern about whether they can continue to recruit Uh Russian men willing to go into this uh very lethal Battlefield”
Petraeus wears his 'KKR hat' as investor and is evaluating Ukraine defense technology and manufacturing investment opportunities in capacity as financial decision-maker.
“of course they've added members as well since the full scale invasion of Ukraine um let me ask you for a moment uh we were in Ukraine with you last September and people already were starting to understand they were going to have to give up things they didn't want to give up in order to end this war there was this reality kind of sinking in but Ukraine has made incredible advances on the technology front on the Innovation front you also wear your KKR hat and you think about the future of investment in defense technology”
The US military-industrial-Congressional complex has vested interests in continuing existing platforms, basing arrangements, and manufacturing/maintenance contracts that resist innovation, and the defense establishment absolutely must overhaul this system.
“in fact we absolutely have to overhaul our system noting that there are vested interests in the military industrial Congressional complex as Senator McCain used to describe it that that are want to continue to have existing platforms existing basing Arrangements existing manufacturing and maintenance and all the rest of that”
Ukrainian maritime and aerial drones have sunk one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and forced the final Russian ship out of the centuries-occupied Port of Sebastopol in Crimea.
“Maritime drones that have sunk onethird of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and forc the final Russian ship out of the centuries occupied Port of Sebastopol in Prima”
Ukraine controls approximately 20% or more of global grain exports (not production), making it critical to food security for countries like Egypt and North African nations.
“let's not forget the agriculture uh they're somewhere in the order of 20 or more percent of grain exports not grain production but exports um and by the way the clearing out of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the Western Black Sea forced by this combination of aerial and Maritime Ukrainian drones uh has meant that they're once again able to export to countries like Egypt and North Africa other other North African countries that are so highly dependent uh on Ukraine for their very uh food security”
Trump administration officials, particularly General Kellogg, are operating on 'Trump time'—accelerated timelines driven by Trump's impatience—which is substantially speeding up the pace of Ukraine negotiations.
“General Kellogg said this is on Trump time meaning that it's all uh being uh the catalist of Trump's impatience uh is very much at play here”
Ukrainian forces can prevent rapid Russian offensive advancement from achieving significant territorial gains, just as they have for 'many many months,' albeit while 'giving up incremental elements of ground.'
“the ukrainians have a very substantial force on the ground they can prevent any rapid Uh Russian uh offensive from achieving much just as they have been for many many months albeit giving up incremental elements of ground”
Russia deployed 10,000 North Korean troops on the battlefield, which Ukraine attacked in Kursk region where Ukraine still holds half of captured territory, and these North Korean forces have been 'absolutely slaughtered' in combat.
“they actually have had 10,000 North Koreans on the battlefield and cursed that area in Russia uh that Ukraine attacked into and still holds half of what it was They seized and those North Koreans have been absolutely slaughtered”
Ukraine has developed and deployed an extraordinary system of unmanned aerial and maritime drones integrated with ground robotic systems that produce tomorrow's technology for today's wars, in contrast to US procurement systems that produce yesterday's technology for tomorrow's wars.
“this is a system now of course nothing concentrates the mind like the prospect of losing your Independence fighting for your very survival but this is a system that they have that now produces tomorrow's technology for today's Wars and I don't think it's overly too hyperbolic to say that our procurement system especially from major items tends to produce yesterday's technology for tomorrow's Wars”
Ukraine's partnership between drone designers and combat forces has created a unique ecosystem producing tomorrow's technology for today's warfare, standing in contrast to US military procurement which produces yesterday's technology for tomorrow's wars due to vested interests in the military-industrial complex.
“it is ground systems now uh you know of course back in December the ukrainians conducted the first ever complete unmanned systems attack it's never been done in history that we know of uh all remotely operated uh aerial and various ground robotic systems and vehicles uh so again this is a system now of course nothing concentrates the mind like the prospect of losing your Independence fighting for your very survival but this is a system that they have that now produces tomorrow's technology for today's Wars”
First-round Ukraine negotiations will be held in Saudi Arabia and will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walt, and Special Envoy Witkoff, with General Kellogg interfacing with Ukrainians and Witkoff with Russians, but without Europeans at the initial table.
“the first negotiations will be in Saudi Arabia uh the negotiators will actually not include General Kellogg uh they'll be the Secretary of State Marco Rubio National Security adviser Mike Walt and then special en boy witkoff uh and then again we'll see where it goes from there but there was a bit of uh the question was asked several times so you mean the Europeans will not be”
The Munich Security Conference experienced unusual diplomatic drama, including Vice President Vance's 27-minute meeting with far-right German candidate (AfD) and only 3-minute meeting with leading candidate Friedrich Merz, contrasting sharply with his non-meeting with German Chancellor who pushed back in subsequent speech.
“the vice president's speech um about the state of democracy in Europe and then his meeting with the far right German candidate for I don't know 27 minutes supposedly and then the leading candidate who's not in power freedrick Merz with three minutes and not at all with the German chancellor who pushed back in his speech the subsequent day”
President Trump floated the idea that Ukraine would transfer $500 billion worth of strategic minerals to the US in return for military aid (couple hundred billion already received), representing a proposed resource extraction component to settlement.
“after after president Trump floated an idea that uh Ukraine would sign over $500 billion worth of strategic minerals and so forth to the US in return for the whatever it is couple hundred uh billion that they've actually gotten from the US keep in mind that much of these Aid packages has actually been spent in the US uh to replenish our own stocks with more modern Munitions uh after we have given Ukraine what we had on hand”
Ukraine has the manufacturing capacity to produce far more drones than it currently deploys in combat, and with money and orders could export drones profitably to generate revenue for purchasing additional inventory.
“Ukraine has the ability to manufacture far more drones than it is able to currently and potentially with the end of the war will then be able to export that drones can you kind of connect that for me to to the fact you see them becom Powerhouse they could do that now if they had the money in the orders”
Ukraine will require cessation of hostilities ('guns falling silent') before foreign venture capital and growth investors will meaningfully invest in manufacturing and technology companies, though lower-end venture capital and growth tech investors may participate first before large-scale investors.
“it's going to require the guns to fall silent I think but by the way many other attractive opportunities the minerals are in uh bold relief right now after after president Trump floated an idea that uh Ukraine would sign over $500 billion worth of strategic minerals and so forth to the US in return for the whatever it is couple hundred uh billion that they've actually gotten from the US”
In the Cold War era, as a second lieutenant, Petraeus was stationed with a rifle platoon in an airborne battalion in Vicenza, Italy, specifically positioned to jump into NATO territory that lacked large NATO forces (such as Eastern Turkey/Turkish Thrace) to fight Soviet incursion and ensure U.S. involvement in potential conflict—a force posture that differs fundamentally from current NATO arrangements.
“as a second Lieutenant I was a rifle pattil here an air War Battalion in Venza Italy we were actually going to jump in to parts of NATO where there were not large NATO forces say Eastern Turkey the Turkish thce but where the Soviet Union could come into NATO territory literally to make sure I guess that we were going to die and bring the us into the fight”
Ukraine is throwing thousands of suicide drones at Russian forces on the front lines every day, with hundreds more making multiple missions (12-15) before being shot down, plus dozens of drones entering Russian airspace nightly to target energy infrastructure, refineries, and strategic airfields.
“they are throwing thousands of suicide drones at the Russians on the front lines every day there are hundreds more that are going out and coming back at least for 12 or 15 missions until they're shot down they're dozens going into Russian airspace every night going after the Russian uh energy refineries the storage locations sometimes strategic airfields”
General Kellogg, named as envoy, stated that Europeans would not be at the negotiating table for the first round of Ukraine talks, with negotiations planned for Saudi Arabia and led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and special envoy Witkoff.
“I was at the lunch yesterday the Ukraine lunch uh at which general Kellogg retired three star who has been named the envoy uh but said that the Europeans would not be at the negotiating table and in fact as we have learned since then the first negotiations will be in Saudi Arabia uh the negotiators will actually not include General Kellogg uh they'll be the Secretary of State Marco Rubio National Security adviser Mike Walt and then special en boy witkoff”
Foreign investment in Ukrainian defense technology and drone manufacturing is not yet safe, and will require the guns to fall silent before significant capital deployment becomes viable.
“it's going to require the guns to fall silent I think but by the way many other attractive opportunities”
Initial foreign investment in Ukrainian tech companies will likely come from lower-end venture capital and growth tech investors before larger institutional investors seek major deals.
“I think it will probably be the more of the lower end of the uh Venture Capital Growth Tech that kind of investor initially uh and then over time you'll get the large investors who are looking for huge deals”
European leaders are experiencing a range of emotions at the Munich Security Conference—some stunned, some in disbelief—but upon reflection, they recognize that the diplomatic drama could lead to positive outcomes: greater European defense spending, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, and a feasible security guarantee without US boots on the ground.
“there's been sort of a wave of emotions here there's some stunned Europeans at various times a bit of disbelief about this and that and then but as you then think it through um and realize this and other realities could really lead the Europeans to being to doing more for their own defense which is a long time in coming um this could actually bring about a ceas fire uh in Ukraine uh you could fashion a security guarantee uh that doesn't require us boots on the on the ground in Ukraine on and on um I think you emerge with a bit more equinity perhaps”
European nations have been stunned and in disbelief about certain developments at Munich, but as they think through the implications, they may realize these events could lead to Europeans doing more for their own defense (which has been needed for a long time) and could actually bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine.
“there's been sort of a wave of emotions here there's some stunned Europeans at various times a bit of disbelief about this and that and then but as you then think it through um and realize this and other realities could really lead the Europeans to being to doing more for their own defense which is a long time in coming um this could actually bring about a ceas fire uh in Ukraine”
President Zelenskyy initially and wisely decided Ukraine would not export drones during the war, instead using all production for battlefield operations, but once the war ends, Ukraine's drone manufacturing capacity will be the most extraordinary in the world.
“president zalinski initially I think wisely said we're not going to export anything we're use it on our Battlefield...when the guns fall silent the capacity here is going to be the most extraordinary in the world if you look at the numbers of what we've provided usually it was hundreds or maybe small numbers of thousands of suicide drones in total and realize that they're throwing thousands of drones at the Russians every single day uh this is really quite stunning it is the future of warfare in many respects”
Ukraine can prevent rapid Russian offensives from achieving significant gains and has been doing so for many months, conceding only incremental ground despite being heavily outmanned and outgunned.
“the ukrainians have a very substantial force on the ground they can prevent any rapid Uh Russian uh offensive from achieving much just as they have been for many many months albeit giving up incremental elements of ground”
When visiting the Nemesis Battalion during a recent trip, Petraeus observed extraordinary and unique partnerships between unmanned systems designers and operators, with all systems being unclassified and openly displayed on the Battalion's website showing their operational achievements.
“When we visited the Nemesis Battalion on our last trip how extraordinary is the partnership and unique is the partnership between those who design the unmanned system... you recall when we were with the Nemesis Battalion this is all unclassified they actually have a website you can go to shows their greatest hits from the era”
Petraeus has been telling the interviewer 'not quite yet Suzanne, not quite yet' for the last two years regarding when it would be safe for foreign investment in Ukraine, suggesting timing has been shifting.
“I've been asking you for the last two years now uh what you think it will take once again with your KKR haton in in sort of determining when it's safe to have foreign investment come into Ukraine uh and really start investing heavily in their manufacturing capabilities and their ability to export some of these things to the rest of the world and essentially really grow and you kept saying not quite yet Suzanne not quite yet Suzanne”
Much of US military aid to Ukraine has been spent in the US to replenish American stocks with modern munitions after giving Ukraine items from on-hand inventory, making aid partially a domestic procurement mechanism.
“keep in mind that much of these Aid packages has actually been spent in the US uh to replenish our own stocks with more modern Munitions uh after we have given Ukraine what we had on hand”
Ukrainian drones are dramatically cheaper than US suicide drones or out-and-back drones, providing equivalent or superior capability at a fraction of the cost.
“they now the latest adaptation uh Suzanne which is really interesting is that they're avoiding the jamming they're literally rolling out fiber optic cable very very thin very light and so forth from the Drone as it goes out so that they can maintain Communications command and control uh the visual uh picture and so forth uh that's how they're getting around the increasingly effective Russian electronic warfare posture jamming air defense and so on and when we were there with you I I found it fascinating that Ukraine has the ability to manufacture far more drones than it is able to currently and potentially with the end of the war will then be able to export that drones can you kind of connect that for me to to the fact you see them becom Powerhouse they could do that now if they had the money in the orders uh president zalinski initially I think wisely said we're not going to export anything we're use it on our Battlefield and as you recall they are throwing thousands of suicide drones at the Russians on the front lines every day there are hundreds more that are going out and coming back at least for 12 or 15 missions until they're shot down they're dozens going into Russian airspace every night going after the Russian uh energy refineries the storage locations sometimes strategic airfields and so on So This Is How They are overcoming uh being very heavily outmanned and outgunned and also inflicting extraordinary casualties on the Russians and the Russians also can't replace the hard wear now that they're losing the armored systems and so on uh they've already well into the old stocks that they had that have been refurbished and brought back on the battlefield and they just can't they're actually now in many cases just using infantry for the attacks uh and of course probably reflecting their concern about whether they can continue to recruit Uh Russian men willing to go into this uh very lethal Battlefield they actually have had 10,000 North Koreans on the battlefield and cursed that area in Russia uh that Ukraine attacked into and still holds half of what it was They seized and those North Koreans have been absolutely slaughtered um so very very lethal Battlefield Ukraine on The Cutting Edge of this technology Way Beyond where we are frankly in its ability they produce 1.5 million drones in the first nine months of last year according to president zalinski and they could actually export now if they had the money in the orders and that would help them actually make money and then uh buy more drones uh but when the guns fall silent the capacity here is going to be the most extraordinary in the world if you look at the numbers of what we've provided usually it was hundreds or maybe small numbers of thousands of suicide drones in total and realize that they're throwing thousands of drones at the Russians every single day uh this is really quite stunning it is the future of warfare in many respects albeit a lot of differences to the potential scenarios in which we might be involved with our Coalition Partners I'm fascinated by that and I've been asking you for the last two years now uh what you think it will take once again with your KKR haton in in sort of determining when it's safe to have foreign investment come into Ukraine uh and really start investing heavily in their manufacturing capabilities and their ability to export some of these things to the rest of the world and essentially really grow and you kept saying not quite yet Suzanne not quite yet Suzanne I wonder if you think the time is is getting much closer now that we may see an end to this war well I think it is much closer and as you know since you're co-hosting albeit remotely with brave one this gathering in ke next week that I'll attend and which I'll speak uh of Ukrainian tech companies um they're ready to take investment and I think it will probably be the more of the lower end of the uh Venture Capital Growth Tech that kind of investor initially uh and then over time you'll get the large investors who are looking for huge deals uh but it's going to require the guns to fall silent I think but by the way many other attractive opportunities the minerals are in uh bold relief right now after after president Trump floated an idea that uh Ukraine would sign over $500 billion worth of strategic minerals and so forth to the US in return for the whatever it is couple hundred uh billion that they've actually gotten from the US keep in mind that much of these Aid packages has actually been spent in the US uh to replenish our own stocks with more modern Munitions uh after we have given Ukraine what we had on hand so uh again I think there are going to be incredible opportunities here let's not forget the agriculture uh they're somewhere in the order of 20 or more percent of grain exports not grain production but exports um and by the way the clearing out of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the Western Black Sea forced by this combination of aerial and Maritime Ukrainian drones uh has meant that they're once again able to export to countries like Egypt and North Africa other other North African countries that are so highly dependent uh on Ukraine for their very uh food security”
An ideal security architecture would be a NATO operation led by an American three-star general with core headquarters built into NATO coalition headquarters, with extensive European and US assets in place to provide responsive deterrent coverage.
“in an ideal world it would be a NATO operation led by an American three star let's say with a core headquarters that is then built into a a NATO Coalition headquarters with lots of European and US assets uh in place to provide the response”
A NATO operation led by a U.S. three-star commander with a core headquarters integrated into a NATO Coalition headquarters with European and U.S. assets would be an 'ideal' structure for security guarantees, contrasting with potential European-led alternatives.
“in an ideal world it would be a NATO operation led by an American three star let's say with a core headquarters that is then built into a a NATO Coalition headquarters with lots of European and US assets uh in place to provide the response”
Ukraine controls approximately 20% of its territory occupied by Russian forces, though Ukraine holds half of the territory it seized in the Kursk region of Russia, and any security agreement will likely involve demilitarized zones and ceasefire arrangements while the occupation persists.
“we know the other Contours probably will consist of Russia continuing to occupy 20% or so of the of Ukrainian territory uh but by the way what is what do they do about ukraini occupation of that part of kurur uh but again the broad Contours I think you can actually Envision U demilitarized zones ceasefire Etc”
Petraeus held a prior role as speech writer for the NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe when he was a Major during the Cold War, indicating extensive NATO experience spanning several decades.
“at the very first time as the speech writer for the NATO Supreme Al Commander Europe back when I was a major a number of decades ago when the Cold War was still uh quite threatening”
A contact group format (including US, EU High Representative, UK, Germany, France, possibly Italy) could be an alternative to having all 31+ NATO members at the negotiating table, though final structure remains uncertain.
“perhaps at some point there could be a thought about a contact group such as we have seen before where the US has at the table say the EU High rep uh the UK Germany France maybe Italy something like that uh but again we'll see how this how this aspect of this plays out”
The likely contours of a peace settlement will include Russia continuing to occupy approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, with ongoing disputes over Ukrainian occupation of parts of Kursk, demilitarized zones, ceasefires, and other territorial arrangements still unresolved.
“we know the other Contours probably will consist of Russia continuing to occupy 20% or so of the of Ukrainian territory uh but by the way what is what do they do about ukraini occupation of that part of kurur uh but again the broad Contours I think you can actually Envision U demilitarized zones ceasefire Etc”
Ukrainian tech companies' information about their drone capabilities is unclassified and publicly available, with websites documenting their greatest operational hits.
“this is all unclassified they actually have a website you can go to shows their greatest hits from the era and so forth”
Petraeus wears a 'KKR hat' (serves as an advisor/executive to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts investment firm), placing him in a position to advise on defense technology investment opportunities in Ukraine post-conflict.
“you also wear your KKR hat and you think about the future of investment in defense technology”
Petraeus was employed as a speech writer for the NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe when he was a major during the Cold War, earlier in his career than his later three-star and four-star command positions.
“but at the very first time as the speech writer for the NATO Supreme Al Commander Europe back when I was a major a number of decades ago when the Cold War was still uh quite threatening”
Petraeus has visited Ukraine with the interviewer Suzanne '7 or 8 times over the last couple of years' and has direct field experience with Ukrainian forces and defense technology.
“I know that Ukraine is a very important topic to you we have had the pleasure of traveling to Ukraine with you seven or eight times over the last couple of years”
Europeans meeting the 2% NATO defense spending target is a relatively recent achievement facilitated by the Wales Summit agreement from a couple of decades ago.
“it was agreed way back you know couple decades ago at the Wales Summit”
Vice President met with far-right German candidate for 27 minutes, with leading candidate Friedrich Merz for 3 minutes, and did not meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel who pushed back in her speech the following day.
“the vice president's speech um about the state of democracy in Europe and then his meeting with the far right German candidate for I don't know 27 minutes supposedly and then the leading candidate who's not in power freedrick Merz with three minutes and not at all with the German chancellor who pushed back in his speech the subsequent day”
Ukraine's Nemesis Battalion operates an unclassified website showcasing their 'greatest hits' and represents the integration of Ukrainian tech companies into the drone design, manufacturing, and operational ecosystem.
“you'll recall when we were with the Nemesis Battalion this is all unclassified they actually have a website you can go to shows their greatest hits from the era”
The Munich Security Conference itself is not a huge venue, so diplomatic incidents and statements have significant amplified reverberation effect throughout the attendee community.
“the venue for the Munich security conference is not huge so I can imagine the reverberations from this have been rather significant”
General Kellogg will interface with Ukrainians while special envoy Witkoff will interface with Russians, operating on 'Trump time' driven by the catalyst of Trump's impatience.
“General Kellogg apparently is going to interface with the ukrainians witkoff with the Russians but it's all happening very very rapidly in fact General Kellogg said this is on Trump time meaning that it's all uh being uh the catalist of Trump's impatience uh is very much at play here”
Petraeus will spend the coming week in Ukraine starting from Warsaw tonight, approaching the three-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
“I'm going in again from here I go to Warsaw tonight and then overnight into Ukraine and spend the week there uh as they approach the three-year anniversary of the launching of the fullscale invasion 2022”
The host has been asking Petraeus for the past two years 'when is it safe to have foreign investment come into Ukraine,' with Petraeus consistently responding 'not quite yet' until more recently when he indicated the time was getting closer.
“I've been asking you for the last two years now uh what you think it will take once again with your KKR haton in in sort of determining when it's safe to have foreign investment come into Ukraine uh and really start investing heavily in their manufacturing capabilities and their ability to export some of these things to the rest of the world and essentially really grow and you kept saying not quite yet Suzanne not quite yet Suzanne I wonder if you think the time is is getting much closer now”
Petraeus will attend and speak at a Ukrainian tech investment conference in Kyiv next week regarding Ukrainian tech companies, as a co-host remotely with 'Brave One' organization.
“as you know since you're co-hosting albeit remotely with brave one this gathering in ke next week that I'll attend and which I'll speak uh of Ukrainian tech companies”
The Munich Security Conference venue is small enough that the diplomatic drama and discussions have had significant reverberations throughout the attendees.
“the venue for the Munich security conference is not huge so I can imagine the reverberations from this have been rather significant”
Petraeus and Brad (another expert) visited Ukraine seven or eight times over the last couple of years, establishing direct experiential knowledge of Ukrainian military capabilities and the conflict situation.
“I know that Ukraine is a very important topic to you we have had the pleasure of traveling to Ukraine with you seven or eight times over the last couple of years”
This Munich Security Conference has had an unusually high degree of diplomatic drama compared to Petraeus's nearly continuous attendance over the last 12 years, making it unique in his experience.
“there has been no shortage of drama here it's there's been a degree of excitement uh that isn't always present by any means here in Munich”
Brad Christian conducted an interview with Bill Browder at Munich regarding the seizure of Russian funds, which was relevant to discussions about security guarantees and their potential to include frozen Russian asset seizure mechanisms.
“Brad Christian did an excellent interview yesterday with Bill Browder about the seizing of that Russian fund of of Russian funds in general uh let me ask you sir closing thoughts for you from Munich”
Bill Browder recently discussed seizure of Russian assets with Petraeus at Munich, indicating coordination between Trump administration allies and financial/asset seizure advocacy.
“by the way first I just met with Bill Browder and we were discussing exactly what we've just been discussing here um”
Petraeus has attended the Munich Security Conference almost continuously for the last 12 years and has never experienced diplomatic drama of the scale and emotional intensity evident at the current conference.
“there's been a lot of again diplomatic drama uh played out here over the weekend that is a bit unique in my experience of coming here uh almost continuously for the last 12 years”