Thomas Friedman on the Future of America and the World: The Post-Election Dissection (Part 1)
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With Donald Trump now declared winner of the 2024 presidential race, the United States stands on the brink of a new era, one that Trump has promised will be ‘a golden age of America’. Yet, as New York Times columnist and Pulitzer Prize-winning author Thomas Friedman has warned, the implications of Trump’s ambitious agenda may be far from harmonious.
Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine on his first day in office, impose tariffs on China, and pressure Israel to conclude the war in Gaza. But will these bold promises stabilise global tensions — or further stoke them?
In November 2024, Friedman returned to the Intelligence Squared stage in London for his first appearance since the pandemic. In conversation with broadcaster Ritula Shah he explored whether Trump’s policies will serve America’s interests or undermine its alliances and role in global affairs.
No one is better placed or more clear-sighted than Friedman to assess the implications of this new presidency. He shared his insights into the likely consequences of Trump’s vision for the US and the world for years to come.
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Friedman argues that Trump won by reading public anxiety about rapid technological and social change, but he lacks understanding of the deeper structural forces—dual supercycles in technology and climate—that will define his presidency, making him unprepared for a world of 'poly-actors' requiring 'poly-solutions' to 'poly-crises'.
- Trump succeeded by offering a metaphor (the wall) to stop change, but reading anxiety is different from understanding and managing the big trends reshaping the world
- The world has fundamentally changed from the post-Cold War era into a 'poly-scene' shaped by two supercycles: accelerating technology (including AI) and climate change, both running with feedback loops
- Current geopolitical complexity requires polymathic AI and coordinated solutions across 'poly-actors' (superpowers, super-empowered individuals, super-corporations, super-intelligence, super-storms), not the traditional bilateral diplomacy that worked in earlier eras
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Friedman's environmental tutor Johan Rockström and the Potsdam Institute concept of 'poly-crisis' refers to how climate change drives agricultural decline, which drives internal migration, which drives external migration, which drives state collapse—meaning we are not just in a climate crisis but in interconnected cascading crises.
“my environmental tutor calls Johan rockstrom who runs the potam institute in in Germany and says I got a new book out would you come to New York for un climate week um and um uh do an event with me and I said Yan for you anything what's the book called he said it's called poly crisis I thought well that's really interesting my AI teachers talking about polymathic artificial intelligence my climate teachers talking about poly crisis meaning that we're not just in a climate crisis anymore climate change drives agricultural decline drives internal migration drives external migration drives State collapse so you get poly crisis”
Henry Kissinger brokered the 1974 Egyptian-Israeli disengagement agreements in three months using three phone calls to clear state actors (Israeli PM Golda Meir, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad), producing what Friedman calls 'tic-tac-toe three across' (three disengagement agreements: Egypt-Israel-Syria).
“Henry Kissinger I'm going to date myself here needed three dimes um an [25:05] airplane three months and a little Kissinger magic to produce the 1974 disengagement agreements which were the really the precursor to Camp David um he needed a dime to call goldir the Israeli Prime Minister a dime to call Anar Sadat the Egyptian president and a dime to call ha zasad they all lived in real States and there was a phone and when it rang it didn't come off Off the Wall okay um three months three dimes Kissinger magic and he produced what I call TIC taac toe three across Egypt [25:37] Syria Israel disengagement agreements”
Putin described the fall of the Soviet Union as 'the worst humiliation of the 20th century,' illustrating how humiliation shapes geopolitical behavior.
“it can be Vladimir Putin who described the fall of the Soviet Union as the worst humiliation you know of the of the 20th century”
Nate Cohn, the New York Times pollster, was not saying Harris would win, meaning the Times' polling operation was not engaged in wishful thinking about the election outcome.
“our pollster Nate con was never saying that that she was going to win so we're kind of a punching bag for a lot of that stuff”
The Gaza War worked hard against Kamala Harris in certain communities and may have contributed to reduced turnout that benefited Trump.
“there's no question the Gaza War um in certain communities uh worked uh against KLA Harris hard to believe how it could have worked in Trump's favor um in a kind of positive way but a lot of people didn't vote I think that was part of it”
Putin described the fall of the Soviet Union as the worst humiliation of the 20th century, exemplifying how humiliation is a driving force in geopolitical behavior.
“it can be Vladimir Putin who described the fall of the Soviet Union as the worst humiliation you know of the of the 20th century”
Henry Kissinger in 1973-74, after the Egyptian surprise attack, needed only three dimes (to call Golda Meir, Anwar Sadat, and Hafez al-Assad) and three months to produce the 1974 disengagement agreements, the precursor to Camp David, because state leaders lived in real states with real phones.
“Henry Kissinger I'm going to date myself here needed three dimes um an airplane three months and a little Kissinger magic to produce the 1974 disengagement agreements which were the really the precursor to Camp David um he needed a dime to call goldir the Israeli Prime Minister a dime to call Anar Sadat the Egyptian president and a dime to call ha zasad they all lived in real States and there was a phone and when it rang it didn't come off Off the Wall okay um three months three dimes Kissinger magic and he produced what I call TIC taac toe three across Egypt Syria Israel disengagement agreements”
Tony Blinken faces a Rubik's Cube-like challenge because everywhere he goes he encounters multiple competing actors: in Gaza there is Hamas (military and political), in Lebanon there is Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, in Syria there are the Syrian government, Iranians, Russians, and Turks, in Iraq there are Shia militias and the Iraqi government, in Yemen there are Houthis and the Yemeni government—a situation fundamentally different from Kissinger's three-actor problem.
“Tony blinkin sees double wherever he goes he goes to Gaza there's inside Hamas and outside Hamas military Hamas and political Hamas he goes to Lebanon there's the hisbah and the Lebanese government goes to Syria there's the Syrian government the Iranians in Syria the Russians in Syria and the Turks in Syria not to mention the Kurds in Syria he goes to Iraq he's got the Shia militias and he's got the Iraqi government in Yemen he's got houti tribesmen and flipflops who operate cruise missiles and the yemeni government he sees double everywhere he goes his challenge is to take a Rubik's Cube and get all the colors on one side aligned ever try to do that it's really hard you do not want to be the US Secretary of State okay”
Ukraine's firing of long-range missiles authorized by Biden, which Russia characterized as a nuclear doctrine escalation, represents a new phase of the conflict that Trump will inherit at a much 'hotter' stage than in his first term.
“we've seen this authorization by Joe Biden of the use of long range missiles Ukraine's indeed fired them uh you know it's Russia's described it as an escalation change of this nuclear Doctrine it feels as if Donald Trump might inherit a conflict that is in a new phase a much hotter phase”
Inflation was the most important factor in Trump's election victory because when inflation is high it affects everybody, unlike unemployment which affects fewer people, and historically presidents have been toppled by inflation including Jimmy Carter and Lyndon Johnson.
“I think the most important thing was inflation um uh Larry Summers made a good point the other day and he he that when when unemployment goes from you know uh down or up 1% that affects a certain number of people when inflation's up it affects everybody and um uh and we've seen in our history uh Presidents toppled by inflation Jimmy Carter was one uh Lyndon Johnson was one”
People in minority communities and white American communities did not want policies like 'defund the police,' making this a consensus position across racial lines against a Democratic policy position.
“that was not something that um minority Americans or you know white Americans wanted to do in their communities”
Inflation was the most important factor in Trump's election victory; when inflation rises it affects everybody, and historically Presidents have been toppled by inflation—Jimmy Carter and Lyndon Johnson are examples.
“I think the most important thing was inflation um uh Larry Summers made a good point the other day and he he that when when unemployment goes from you know uh down or up 1% that affects a certain number of people when inflation's up it affects everybody and um uh and we've seen in our history uh Presidents toppled by inflation Jimmy Carter was one uh Lyndon Johnson was one and so I think that was that was a big crosscutting issue”
Elon Musk has a GDP larger than half the countries in the world, plus a space company and internet company that shape battlefields, making him a 'super-corporation' that modern diplomacy must account for.
“he's dealing with super corporations Elon Musk has a GDP bigger than half the countries in the world he also has a space company and internet company that shape battlefields”
AI will be extraordinarily disruptive not just to blue collar jobs but to white collar and intellectual work, including journalism and commentary.
“this stuff is coming and it's going to be so disruptive and and we're playing around it's really when you appoint someone like Matt Gates you're just playing around”
The transition from the post-Cold War world to the post-post-Cold War world reflects fundamental change: Trump is resuming the same office, same U.S. military, same allies, but entering into a completely different world than his first term.
“the world has actually changed remarkably in just the four years that Trump was President I would argue we we went we ended the postc Cold War World and we entered into the post post Cold War World and um and so Trump now is resuming same office same you know US Army same allies but a different world”
Trump is 78 years old and has led a chaotic life, and at a complicated historical moment, the country needs the very best people around him, but instead he has Elon Musk using Twitter and his platform of 200 million people to influence cabinet selections.
“this is what worries me about Trump and like I not a doctor um I I I I all I know is he's 78 years old and I'm 71 and and I you know I I confuse a few things every once in a while uh and he's led a crazy life and um uh I'm just very worried we're at an incredibly complicated moment you need the very best people around you and and he's got Elon Musk jumping up and down you know tweeting you should using Twitter and and his platform of 200 million people saying you should appointed this guy and not that guy”
Friedman's environmental tutor Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute in Germany) published a book titled 'Poly Crisis' describing the current state as no longer simply a climate crisis but rather a 'poly crisis' where climate change drives agricultural decline, which drives internal migration, external migration, and state collapse—multiple interconnected crises.
“couple weeks later my environmental tutor calls Johan rockstrom who runs the potam institute in in Germany and says I got a new book out would you come to New York for un climate week um and um uh do an event [28:13] with me and I said Yan for you anything what's the book called he said it's called poly crisis I thought well that's really interesting my AI teachers talking about polymathic artificial intelligence my climate teachers talking about poly crisis meaning that we're not just in a climate crisis anymore climate change drives agricultural decline drives internal migration drives external migration drives State collapse so you get poly crisis um”
Donald Trump won 76 million votes and Kamala Harris won 74 million votes, making the notion that this was a giant landslide incorrect and meaning we should keep our feet on the ground that this wasn't some overwhelming mandate for the MAGA agenda.
“Donald Trump won basically 76 million votes and Comm Harris won 74 million so um the notion that like this was a giant Landslide you know um uh uh I I think we have to keep you know our feet on the ground in terms of this wasn't like some overwhelming mandate”
Biden enacted significant legislation aimed at responding to rapid change and accelerating trends, contrary to the suggestion that Democrats were ignoring these issues.
“certainly didn't miss it he he enacted a lot of legislation um that was aimed at responding to it”
Artificial General Intelligence will arrive within the next 3-5 years and will be the greatest and most disruptive scientific discovery in human history.
“we are on the eve of the greatest and most disruptive scientific discovery of mankind artificial official general intelligence it's going to be with us sometime in the next 3 to 5 years”
Google demonstrated a beta version of Gemini that created a debate about 'The World is Flat' featuring realistic AI-generated male and female voices debating Friedman's book, suggesting that within five years AI will be capable of replacing human presenters and commentators.
“I was out at Google a few months ago and they um uh showed me a a beta version they they asked Gemini create it's so appropriate they said create a debate about the World is Flat and in one second a woman's voice and a man's voice we debating my book and I suspect when I'm here in five years Hannah won't need either of us okay um so it will this stuff is coming and it's going to be so disruptive”
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is expected to arrive within 3 to 5 years and will be the greatest and most disruptive scientific discovery of mankind, yet neither Trump nor Harris mentioned it during the 2024 election campaign or in any debate.
“we are on the eve of the greatest and most disruptive scientific discovery of mankind artificial official general intelligence it's going to be with us sometime in the next 3 to 5 years and it is going to disrupt everything and on the eve of this discovery it was not mentioned in a single debate and neither candidate ran on it spoke about it”
The backlash against the 'woke agenda' was a definite factor in Trump's victory, played out in different states and localities, and was very important, with Democrats adopting positions far away from the median American voter on cultural issues.
“I think the a cultural agenda uh the um uh backlash against the woke agenda um was uh was definitely uh a factor um it's it played out in different states and in different localities but uh I think it was very very important um Democrats had adopted certain positions that were really far away from the median American voter”
The phrase 'defund the police' was one of the three dumbest words in the English language and was not something that minority Americans or white Americans wanted to do in their communities, representing a huge Democratic mistake.
“I think the three dumbest words in the English language were defund the police um and uh uh that was not something that um minority Americans or you know white Americans wanted to do in their communities um I think that was a that was a huge mistake”
Tulsi Gabbard operated as a Putin troll, making her selection as Director of National Intelligence absurd.
“tulsy gabbard you know I mean literally I mean the idea that someone basically um operated as a Putin troll will be the Director of National Intelligence um uh and there's just something just so nuts about the whole thing”
Polymathic artificial intelligence—AI that has mastered multiple domains including biology, chemistry, material science, Shakespeare, and Mozart—is the 'Holy Grail' of AI development and represents where technology is heading.
“the Holy Grail where we are heading is for polyic artificial intelligence so not single domain artificial intelligence say like Alpha fold I can do protein folding or Alpha go I can beat you at go or um or deep blue I can beat you at chest that's single domain this is polymathic artificial intelligence where I've mastered biology chemistry Material Science Shakespeare and Mozart okay and and produces really high dimensional thinking”
Putin described Trump as the 'American Gorbachev'—a leader who might bring the system down from within—with a tone of glee.
“staying with this idea of disruption I think it's Putin that's described Trump as the American gorbachov the leader who bring the system him down from within and he might be on to something there yeah he might I mean um I'm sure he says it with Glee”
Friedman is worried about Trump's appointments because they are outrageous and represent a lack of discipline; appointing people like Matt Gates as attorney general and Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence suggests Trump is not assembling the best people needed at a complicated moment.
“I'm incredibly worried um uh because it's one thing to say I can read the room's anxiety it's another thing to say I actually understand the big trends in the world and I have a plan for fixing them those are two very different things and um he got elected by reading the room I think really well I'm ready to to watch and see what he's going to do um uh I'm not happy about this I I endorsed publicly and voted for KLA Harris um for my own reasons and um who I've never spoken to or you know once bumped into by the way um so uh but I'm I'm very worried because um I don't I look at the initial appointments um and these aren't just these are outrageous um to appoint someone like Matt Gates as our attorney general”
Trump can be extremely entertaining in person and outrageous but also represents a concerning lack of preparation for the world he is inheriting.
“he can be extremely entertaining um in person um uh outrageous but entertaining”
Gaza War was a factor in Harris's loss; though it's counterintuitive, dissatisfaction with Harris's handling of Gaza caused some voters not to vote, which worked against her while potentially benefiting Trump.
“there's no question the Gaza War um in certain communities uh worked uh against KLA Harris hard to believe how it could have worked in Trump's favor um in a kind of positive way but a lot of people didn't vote I think that was part of it”
Biden should have resigned after his poor debate performance; he should never have run again, and instead there should have been a proper primary with a competitive field where all issues could have been laid out.
“I wished Biden would have resigned earlier as soon as I saw the debate I wrote a column immediately saying you need to go um uh I I I don't know what to say yes they [16:45] got it wrong um uh the Democrats it was a bad campaign but I think they were behind the eighth ball the whole time inflation put them behind mball and Biden should have resigned never should have run again there should have been a proper primary uh there should have been a comp ative field where all these issues could have been laid out they didn't do that”
Trump's promise to 'end the Ukraine war in a day' is a specific claim that sounds attractive to some voters, but Trump has not articulated a coherent plan for what that would entail.
“um you know when people say you know his policies um uh you know were preferred by people which policies I will end the the [17:16] Ukraine war in a day um uh I will slay inflation um uh I will um you know uh call women um which which of those yeah yeah they did resonate with some people but um uh”
People felt unable to express certain opinions without fear of cancellation, and the restriction of free speech (or perceived restriction) was a factor in Trump's appeal.
“I think a lot of people were just fed up with feeling that there were certain things that you couldn't say and you would be canceled for um I think that was part of it”
Liberal media outlets (and liberal America more broadly) failed to take seriously the prospect of Trump's victory and underestimated the forces driving support for him, and they will need to do a 'deep rethink' as a result.
“if you're saying did sort of liberal America um you know not take seriously the prospect [15:12] of his winning or understand you know some of the forces that were driving that absolutely they're and they're they're going to have to do a deep rethink”
People became increasingly concerned about cultural changes feeling out of their control, including visible changes in retail, gender norms, and workplace automation, all occurring simultaneously in the past 10 years.
“sometime in the last uh 10 years um people went to the grocery store and the the person at the cash register wasn't wearing a baseball hat um uh they went into the men's room and they saw someone of a different gender um and then they went to the office and their boss rolled a robot up and it seemed to be studying their job and it all happened at the same time”
A broader sense of loss of control over one's life due to accelerated social, technological, and cultural change was a significant driver of support for Trump, who offered metaphorically to stop the winds of change and restore an earlier simpler time.
“there is a sense of a lot of people of a loss of control um and uh you know we've gone through just such accelerated change in America um you know sometime in the last uh 10 years um people went to the grocery store and the the person at the cash register wasn't wearing a baseball hat um uh they went into the men's room and they saw someone of a different gender um and then they went to the office and their boss rolled a robot up and it seemed to be studying their job and it all happened at the same time people's sense of home of social norms and of work all got disrupted at the same time and Along came a guy named Donald Trump who came up with a brilliant metaphor which was a wall the wall was supposed to stop immigrants from illegal immigrants from Mexico but it was a metaphor for I can stop the Winds of Change make America a great again the most important word in that sentence is again it's to hearken back to something uh to a simpler time”
Trump exudes a sense of strength at a time when people feel things are out of control, which despite his shamelessness, crudeness, dishonesty, and criminality, attracted certain people to him.
“if you're making a movie about it it would be called there's just something about Donald um uh I don't know what it is how um uh someone can be this Shameless at times this crude this nasty um this dishonest um this criminal and yet um uh exude a sense of strength at a time when people feel things are out of control that really uh attracted certain people uh to him”
We are no longer in the 'post-Cold War World' but rather in the 'poly scene'—a world shaped by two super-cycles (technology and climate) with poly-crises requiring poly-solutions, poly-actors, and polymathic AI.
“where we are right now I think globally is our great challenge is will we be able to leverage polymathic artificial intelligence to give the poly actors the poly Solutions we're going to need for the poly crisis which is why I call the new er we're in not the post post Cold War World I call it the poly scene”
The greatest global challenge is whether we can leverage polymathic artificial intelligence to give poly-actors the poly-solutions needed to address poly-crises, making the core question of the 'poly-era' about alignment between AI capability, diverse stakeholders, and complex problems.
“where we are right now I think globally is our great challenge is will we be able to leverage polymathic artificial intelligence to give the poly actors the poly Solutions we're going to need for the poly crisis”
Kamala Harris ran the best campaign she could in the time she had, but faced structural disadvantages as she was always 'sailing into the wind' due to inflation and other factors outside her control.
“I thought Comm Harris really ran the best campaign she could in the time she had um but uh it was a difficult she was always sailing into the wind”
Trump says he will end the Ukraine war in a day, will slay inflation, and will call women names—these statements resonated with some people but are not coherent policy positions.
“when people say you know his policies um uh you know were preferred by people which policies I will end the the Ukraine war in a day um uh I will slay inflation um uh I will um you know uh call women um which which of those yeah yeah they did resonate with some people but um uh the only column I actually wrote about the campaign”
Biden should have resigned immediately after the debate he performed poorly in, and the Democrats should have held a proper primary rather than anointing Harris, which would have allowed all issues to be laid out competitively.
“I wished Biden would have resigned earlier as soon as I saw the debate I wrote a column immediately saying you need to go um uh I I I don't know what to say yes they got it wrong um uh the Democrats it was a bad campaign but I think they were behind the eighth ball the whole time inflation put them behind mball and Biden should have resigned never should have run again there should have been a proper primary uh there should have been a comp ative field where all these issues could have been laid out they didn't do that”
Trump's early appointments (Matt Gaetz as attorney general, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, others) are outrageous and not reflective of actual governing competence; they raise serious concerns about Trump's judgment and his ability to attract and retain the best people during a complicated global moment.
“it's one thing to say I can read the room's anxiety it's another thing to say I actually understand the big trends in the world and I have a plan for fixing them those are two very different things and um he got elected by reading the [13:06] room I think really well I'm ready to to watch and see what he's going to do um uh you I'm not happy about this I I endorsed publicly and voted for KLA Harris um for my own reasons and um who I've never spoken to or you know once bumped into by the way um so uh but I'm I'm very worried because um I don't I look at the initial appointments um and these aren't just these are outrageous [13:38] um to appoint someone like Matt Gates as our attorney general you know I want to talk about that but just to talk about the media and the media's role in all of this um the political scientist Yasha monk wrote recently if you were a faithful reader of the New York Times or a frequent listener of NPR National Public Radio in the states you're less likely than the average American citizen to believe that Biden was suffering from serious mental line or that Harris was an unpopular politician”
Putin has described Trump as 'the American Gorbachev'—the leader who might bring the system down from within—and Putin likely sees this with glee.
“staying with this idea of disruption I think it's Putin that's described Trump as the American gorbachov the leader who bring the system him down from within and he might [22:31] be on to something yeah he might I mean um I'm sure he says it with Glee you know but um and that's why to me it's not funny none of it's funny”
Friedman conducted a deep dive on AI with Craig Mundy (former Chief Technology Officer of Microsoft) and concluded that the 'Holy Grail' of AI development is polymathic artificial intelligence—not single-domain AI (like AlphaFold for protein folding or AlphaGo for chess) but AI that masters multiple domains (biology, chemistry, materials science, Shakespeare, Mozart) and produces high-dimensional thinking.
“this summer I decided to do a deep dive on AI you'll see how this all connects in a second [27:11] and I got my tutor Craig Mundy who is the former Chief technology officer of Microsoft and Greg's been my tutor on technology since the World is Flat and we sat down and we did a really deep dive on AI and um uh and it was really interesting and it concluded with him explaining to me that the Holy Grail where we are heading is for polyic artificial intelligence so not single domain artificial intelligence say like Alpha fold I can do protein folding or Alpha go I can beat you at go or um or deep blue I can beat you at chest that's [27:42] single domain this is polymathic artificial intelligence where I've mastered biology chemistry Material Science Shakespeare and Mozart okay and and produces really high dimensional thinking”
It is important to keep in mind that who you read and when you read them matters more than making generalizations about 'the media' or 'the New York Times' as monolithic entities.
“I always bristle when people say the media or the New York Times or whatever um it's who you're reading when and and so I think we actually offered a”
A 'Promethean moment' in history is when the introduction of a new technology or set of ideas forces comprehensive change not in just one domain but across multiple domains: how we work, govern, learn, conduct commerce, fight wars, defend ourselves, commit crimes, and prevent crimes.
“Promethean moments are these moments in history where um uh we get the introduction of a new technology or set of ideas that don't just change one thing they actually force you to change everything how you work how you govern how you learn how you do Commerce um how you fight Wars how you defend yourself how you commit crimes how you prevent crimes”
The biggest lesson Friedman learned as a journalist from 1978 onward was that listening demonstrates respect, and people will allow you to say difficult things about them if they perceive you respect them through careful listening.
“I learned to be a really good listener because I discovered two things happen when you listen one is is what you learn when you listen and I can tell you all the stories I got wrong and there more than a few were because I was talking when I should have been listening but much more important is what you say when you listen because listening is a sign of respect and I discovered it was amazing what people would let me say to or about them if they thought I respected them”
Friedman's book 'What You Say When You Listen' explains that listening is a sign of respect, and when people perceive respect they allow difficult truths to be communicated to them; conversely, without perceived respect, even trivial statements ('it's dark outside') are rejected.
“two things happen when you listen one is is what you learn when you listen and I can tell you all the stories I got wrong and there more than a few were because I was talking when I should have been listening but much more important is what you say when you listen because listening is a sign of respect and I discovered it was amazing what people would let me say to or about them if they thought I respected them and if you didn't they didn't think you respected them you couldn't tell them it was dark outside”
Friedman experienced a Promethean moment—a historical moment where new technology or ideas force comprehensive change across all domains: work, governance, learning, commerce, warfare, and crime prevention—and has observed four such moments: the printing press, the Scientific Revolution, the Agricultural Revolution, and the Industrial Revolution.
“Promethean moments are these moments in history where um uh we get the introduction of a new technology or set of ideas that don't just change one thing they actually force you to change everything how you work how you govern how you learn how you do Commerce um how you fight Wars how you defend yourself how you commit crimes how you prevent crimes and I believe that my time in journalism our time here uh corresponded with a Promethean moment we know what they are they're the printing press the Scientific Revolution the a revolution the Industrial Revolution”
Friedman has shifted his focus from politics to physics, believing that 'the sheer weight of things changing' (Mother Nature's laws of chemistry, biology, and physics) is more consequential than anything humans can control or persuade, and Mother Nature 'always bats last and always bats a thousand.'
“I started I [20:55] despair about politics now I'm just into physics you know I mean I'm just into the sheer weight of things changing people I don't think I can change anyone's mind anymore and when you go back to my two super Cycles you know Mother Nature she is just chemistry biology and physics that's all she is you can't talk her up you can't talk her down you can't say mother nature we're having a little inflation could you take a year off she's going to do whatever chemistry biology and physics dictate and she always bats last and she always [21:27] bats a thousand do not mess with Mother Nature okay”
Liberal America and the Democratic establishment did not take seriously the prospect of Trump winning or understand the forces driving his potential victory, requiring a deep rethink.
“if you're saying did sort of liberal America um you know not take seriously the prospect of his winning or understand you know some of the forces that were driving that absolutely they're and they're they're going to have to do a deep rethink”
A Republican diplomat (not a Trump supporter but not a 'never Trumper') predicted Trump would win and said Harris was a 'terrible terrible candidate,' and criticized Democrats for failing to raise issues that 'connected the voters' (particularly inflation and economic bread-and-butter issues like the price of eggs).
“about three weeks before the election I spoke to a republican Diplomat who wasn't a trump supporter but wasn't a never Trumper either and was convinced that Trump would win and that Harris was a terrible terrible candidate um the Dems were failing according to this person to raise the issues that connected the voters now at the time I was struck by the sort of the certainty but also I wasn't sure if I was being spun but it turned out he was much writer than I could possibly have imagined again was there an element of illusion amongst those who who were desperate that Harris should win”
The backlash against the 'woke agenda' and cultural progressivism was a significant factor in Trump's victory; Democrats adopted positions far from the median American voter, such as the push to 'defund the police,' which was unpopular among both minority and white Americans.
“I think the a cultural agenda uh the um uh backlash against the woke agenda um was uh was definitely uh a factor um it's it played out in different states and in different localities but uh I think it was very very important um Democrats had adopted certain positions that were really far away from the median American voter um I think the three dumbest words in the English language were defund the police um and uh uh that was not something that um minority Americans or you know white Americans wanted to do in their communities um I think that was a that was a huge mistake”
AI disruption will affect not just blue-collar jobs but all forms of work, making it a comprehensive societal transformation rather than a sectoral impact.
“we're on the eve of the greatest technology invention that is going to be incredibly disruptive and not just of blue collar jobs”
The laws of physics (gravity, entropy) are inexorable and will affect everyone, which is why 'the Apple doesn't jump from the ground into the tree it falls actually down from the tree there is gravity and it will hit all of us, it'll hit him first.'
“and that's why you say why did people vote for him again it's a it's a multitude of things but um you know there's physics and the Apple doesn't jump from the ground into the tree it falls actually down from the tree there is gravity and it will hit all of us'll hit him first”
Friedman has despaired about politics and shifted focus to physics, the sheer weight of things changing, because he no longer believes he or anyone can change people's minds, particularly regarding the fundamental forces of climate change and technological disruption.
“I started I despair about politics now I'm just into physics you know I mean I'm just into the sheer weight of things changing people I don't think I can change anyone's mind anymore”
Trump's campaign used the metaphor of 'a wall' to appeal to voters seeking to stop rapid change and return to a simpler past; the most important word in 'Make America Great Again' is 'again,' which evokes a desire to return to an earlier era.
“Along came a guy named Donald Trump who came up with a brilliant metaphor which was a wall the wall was supposed to stop immigrants from illegal immigrants from Mexico but it was a metaphor for I can stop the Winds of Change make America a great again the most important word in that sentence is again it's to hearken back to something uh to a simpler time”
The current Promethean moment is unique in being driven not by a single technology but by two supercycles: a technology supercycle (ability to sense, digitize, connect, process, learn, share, and act, amplified by AI and embedded in everything from watches to toasters to F-35s to computers) and a climate supercycle (emissions, warming, ice melt, ocean current and wind pattern changes, and extreme weather).
“what's different about our Promethean moment is it isn't it isn't driven by simply one thing like a a new machine a printing press or a combustion engine or a new set of ideas about how the um solar system works it's actually driven by two super Cycles one is a super cycle in technology it's our ability to sense digitize connect process learn share act all now Amplified by Ai and we're putting that into everything from your watch to your toaster to your F35 to your computer at the same time what's unique about our Promethean era is that it's paralleled by a climate super cycle emissions warming ice melt change in ocean currents change in Wind patterns extreme weather it's also fed by feedback loops and so one is a vicious cycle one's a virtuous cycle and they are actually reshaping everything”
The post-post-Cold War world is better understood as the 'poly-era' because it is shaped by two super-cycles (technology and climate) rather than by two superpowers competing with each other, and this reframing moves analysis away from Cold War-era concepts.
“and then I said wait a minute that's really stupid this era has nothing to do with the Cold War anymore it's a world shaped by two super Cycles not by two superpowers”
Biden enacted substantial legislation aimed at responding to public anxiety about rapid change, but Trump's victory cannot be attributed to policy preferences; instead, Trump won by reading the room's anxiety while offering no coherent plan for managing the big structural trends reshaping the world.
“Biden certainly didn't miss it he he enacted a lot of legislation um that was aimed at responding to it um you you know I I as I say I go back to all the reasons I explained before and [11:33] and there's I think Donald Trump is a unique figure in history the political history have you met him what's he like um yeah so we know each other um uh and um uh he can be extremely entertaining um in person um uh outrageous but entertaining”
The post-Cold War era has ended; the world has fundamentally changed from the era Trump left office in 2020 to the world he now inherits, making it not merely a return to the same office but a completely different global context.
“the world has actually changed remarkably in just the four years that Trump was President I would argue we we went we ended the postc Cold War World and we entered into the post post Cold War World”
Trump exudes a sense of strength at a time when people feel things are out of control, which attracted people to him despite his shamelessness, crudeness, dishonesty, and criminal behavior—his persona projects control in an era of chaos.
“if you're making a movie about it it would be called there's just something about Donald um uh I don't know what it is how um uh someone can be this Shameless at times this crude this nasty um this dishonest um this criminal and yet um uh exude a sense of strength at a time when people feel things are out of control that really uh attracted certain people uh to him”
Friedman changed his business card from 'New York Times Foreign Affairs Columnist' to 'New York Times Humiliation and Dignity Columnist' because his career was spent covering people acting out their humiliation and questing for dignity.
“around 2015 I changed my business card I can give you one afterwards I changed it from New York Times Foreign Affairs columnist to New York Times humiliation and dignity columnist because I discovered or I came to terms with the fact that I was really spending my career covering people acting out on their humiliation and questing for dignity”
Within five years, AI will be so advanced that Hannah (the moderator) won't need either Friedman or anyone like him, suggesting AI will replace journalist and expert roles.
“I suspect when I'm here in five years Hannah won't need either of us okay um so it will this stuff is coming and it's going to be so disruptive”
The New York Times has five of the best conservative columnists in the business: David Brooks, Ross Douthat, Bret Stephens, David French, and John McEnroe, meaning the Times is not ideologically homogeneous in its opinion columns.
“if you read the New York Times um uh if you read the New York Times you'll discover we have I think the five best conservative columnists in the business right now um David Brooks rth doot Brett Stevens David French and John mcarter”
US Secretary of State is the worst job in the world, and parents should discourage their children from pursuing it, unlike other cabinet positions like agriculture, commerce, education, or health.
“when I give talks now in the states about foreign policy um this is how I like to start um and this is good audience I want to speak to all the parents in the audience um Mom Dad if if uh if your son or daughter come home from college and say Mom Dad I'd like to be the US Secretary of State one day tell them honey anything but that um secretary of agriculture Commerce um Education Health and Human Services but promise mommy and daddy you won't try to be US Secretary of State worst job in the world okay”
Trump called Friedman after Friedman endorsed Trump's Abraham Accords, saying 'Tom I can't believe the New York Times let you say that,' and Friedman replied that he writes what he believes is right or wrong, representing their last interaction.
“when the Abraham Accords were signed um these were Accords which normalized Israel and bahin and and UAE and um uh Morocco and Sudan um uh I I embraced them I thought this is really good and I I I strongly endorsed them and and he quoted that and then uh he called me and said uh Tom I can't believe the new yorktimes s let you say that he said Donald I can write whatever I want you know um when you do the right thing I will write it and when you do the wrong thing I'll write it um that was the last time we spoke”
Trump is not prepared at all for the world he is inheriting, which is being shaped by DeepMind and AI far more than by 'All-Star Wrestling,' meaning he lacks understanding of the actual forces reshaping the world.
“so whatever made Trump win all I know is the world he's going to have to manage is going to be one shape by Deep Mind where I SP all day today a lot more than Allstar wrestling so um uh and and so um let me you know I'll be very interested to see how it works out but um uh I I I don't think he's prepared at all for the world he's inheriting”
Friedman wrote one column during the campaign, which was after Jeff Bezos announced the Washington Post would not endorse Harris, making the point that AGI is more consequential to the world than any political issue.
“the only column I actually wrote about the campaign um was one um uh after Jeff Bezos announced that he wasn't going to um have an endorsement in the Washington Post and the column I wrote was simply to say um which is what I've been doing here all day at Deep Mind we are on the eve of the greatest and most disruptive scientific discovery of mankind artificial official general intelligence”
The job of US Secretary of State has become the worst job in the world due to geopolitical complexity; modern Secretaries of State (like Tony Blinken) face 'poly-actors' in every region—Hamas (military and political wings), Hezbollah (Lebanese political and militant wings), Syrian government, Iranians, Russians, and Turks—making diplomacy vastly more complicated than in the Cold War or post-Cold War eras.
“Mom Dad if if uh if your son or daughter come home from college and say Mom Dad I'd like to be the US Secretary of State one day tell them honey anything but that um secretary of agriculture Commerce um [24:34] Education Health and Human Services but promise mommy and daddy you won't try to be US Secretary of State worst job in the world okay so and the way I can illustrate it and to make this point let's compare Henry Kissinger 1973-74 after the Egyptian surprise attack and Tony blinkin after October 7th and Hamas surprise attack and Israel in its retaliation Henry Kissinger I'm going to date myself here needed three dimes um an [25:05] airplane three months and a little Kissinger magic to produce the 1974 disengagement agreements which were the really the precursor to Camp David um he needed a dime to call goldir the Israeli Prime Minister a dime to call Anar Sadat the Egyptian president and a dime to call ha zasad they all lived in real States and there was a phone and when it rang it didn't come off Off the Wall okay um three months three dimes Kissinger magic and he produced what I call TIC taac toe three across Egypt [25:37] Syria Israel disengagement agreements Flash Forward to Tony blinkin Tony blinkin sees double wherever he goes he goes to Gaza there's inside Hamas and outside Hamas military Hamas and political Hamas he goes to Lebanon there's the hisbah and the Lebanese government goes to Syria there's the Syrian government the Iranians in Syria the Russians in Syria and the Turks in Syria not to mention the Kurds in Syria he goes to Iraq he's got the Shia militias and he's got the Iraqi government in Yemen he's got houti [26:08] tribesmen and flipflops who operate cruise missiles and the yemeni government he sees double everywhere he goes his challenge is to take a Rubik's Cube and get all the colors on one side aligned ever try to do that it's really hard you do not want to be the US Secretary of State okay”
Both the technology super-cycle and climate super-cycle are characterized by feedback loops that cause them to accelerate and reshape everything faster and faster.
“it's also fed by feedback loops and so one is a vicious cycle one's a virtuous cycle and they are actually reshaping everything and they both go faster and faster”
Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris ran on artificial general intelligence or mentioned it in any debate, despite it being the greatest and most disruptive scientific discovery about to arrive within 3-5 years and being more consequential than 'all-star wrestling.'
“it was not mentioned in a single debate and neither candidate ran on it spoke about it so whatever made Trump win all I know is the world he's going to have to manage is going to be one shape by Deep Mind where I SP all day today a lot more than Allstar wrestling”
People felt a loss of control due to accelerated change in America over the past 10 years: changes in retail (cashiers without baseball hats), bathroom/gender norms, workplace automation (robots being introduced into offices), and social norms all disrupted people's sense of home, work, and normalcy simultaneously.
“there is a sense of a lot of people of a loss of control um and uh you know we've gone through just such accelerated change in America um you know sometime in the last uh 10 years um people went to the grocery store and the the person at the cash register wasn't wearing a baseball hat um uh they went into the men's room and they saw someone of a different gender um and then they went to the office and their boss rolled a robot up and it seemed to be studying their job and it all happened at the same time people's sense of home of social norms and of work all got disrupted at the same time”
Friedman changed his New York Times business card around 2015 from 'Foreign Affairs Columnist' to 'Humiliation and Dignity Columnist' because he discovered his career was primarily about covering people acting out their humiliation and seeking dignity—from Putin to China to Palestinians to religious minorities.
“around 2015 I changed my business card I can give you one afterwards I changed it from New York Times Foreign Affairs columnist to New York Times humiliation and dignity columnist because I discovered or I came to terms with the fact that I was really spending my career covering people acting out on their humiliation and questing for dignity by the way it can be Vladimir Putin who described the fall of the Soviet Union as the worst humiliation you know of the of the 20th century it can be China after after what it called the Century of humiliation it can be Palestinians at an Israeli checkpoint it can be saric Jews versus asazi Jews can be Muslim youth in Europe wherever you you wherever I went I was encountering that phenomena”
Mother Nature operates according to chemistry, biology, and physics; you cannot persuade her to take a year off from inflation or climate change—she will do what these physical laws dictate and always 'bats last and always bats a thousand.'
“when you go back to my two super Cycles you know Mother Nature she is just chemistry biology and physics that's all she is you can't talk her up you can't talk her down you can't say mother nature we're having a little inflation could you take a year off she's going to do whatever chemistry biology and physics dictate and she always bats last and she always bats a thousand do not mess with Mother Nature okay”
Trump is not prepared for the world he's inheriting, which will be shaped primarily by AI development at organizations like DeepMind rather than by the kinds of political maneuvering and personnel decisions he's focused on.
“and so um let me you know I'll be very interested to see how it works out but um uh I I I don't think he's prepared at all for the world he's inheriting so AI is a particular Obsession of mine”
A Republican diplomat (not a Trump supporter but not a never-Trumper) spoke to Friedman three weeks before the election, was convinced Trump would win, and argued that Harris was a terrible candidate and that Democrats were failing to raise the issues connecting voters on bread-and-butter concerns.
“about three weeks before the election I spoke to a republican Diplomat who wasn't a trump supporter but wasn't a never Trumper either and was convinced that Trump would win and that Harris was a terrible terrible candidate um the Dems were failing according to this person to raise the issues that connected the voters”
Kamala Harris ran the best campaign she could given the limited time she had, but she was 'sailing into the wind' due to inflation and other structural disadvantages.
“I thought Comm Harris really ran the [5:49] best campaign she could in the time she had um but uh it was a difficult she was always sailing into the wind”
The secretary of state position is the worst job in the world and one should advise parents to ensure their children pursue any other cabinet position (agriculture, commerce, education, health) rather than state.
“this is how I like to start um and this is good audience I want to speak to all the parents in the audience um Mom Dad if if uh if your son or daughter come home from college and say Mom Dad I'd like to be the US Secretary of State one day tell them honey anything but that um secretary of agriculture Commerce um Education Health and Human Services but promise mommy and daddy you won't try to be US Secretary of State worst job in the world okay”
Friedman was at Google and witnessed a beta version of Gemini create a debate between a woman's voice and a man's voice about whether the world is flat (referencing Friedman's own book 'The World is Flat'), demonstrating the disruptive potential of AI to automate cognitive work including journalism.
“I was out at Google a few months ago and they um uh showed me a a beta version they they asked Gemini create it's so appropriate they said create a debate [21:59] about the World is Flat and in one second a woman's voice and a man's voice we debating my book and I suspect when I'm here in five years Hannah won't need either of us okay”
Nate Cohn (pollster) at the New York Times was never saying Harris was going to win, so the Times' polling operation did not contribute to media overconfidence about Harris's prospects.
“our pollster Nate con was never saying that that she was going to win so we're kind of a punching bag for a lot of that stuff”
Donald Trump won with 76 million votes while Kamala Harris won 74 million votes, so the notion that this was a giant landslide or overwhelming mandate for the MAGA agenda is misleading—about three-quarters of Americans are not behind this agenda.
“Donald Trump won basically 76 million votes and Kamala Harris won 74 million so um the notion that like this was a giant Landslide you know um uh uh I I think we have to keep you know our feet on the ground in terms of this wasn't like some overwhelming mandate uh for uh for the the Maga agenda”
Trump endorsed Abraham Accords which normalized Israeli relations with Gulf states, and Friedman publicly praised them in a column, suggesting they were a positive achievement that deserved recognition.
“when the Abraham Accords were signed um these these were Accords which normalized Israel and bahin and and UAE and um uh Morocco and Sudan um uh I I embraced them I thought this is really good and I I I strongly endorsed them”
Friedman endorsed publicly and voted for Kamala Harris, whom he has never spoken to and only once bumped into, based on his own reasons distinct from the campaign's messaging.
“I'm not happy about this I I endorsed publicly and voted for KLA Harris um for my own reasons and um who I've never spoken to or you know once bumped into by the way”
Ukraine is experiencing its thousandth day since Moscow's full-scale invasion, and Biden has authorized the use of long-range missiles, which Ukraine has now fired; Russia has described this as an escalation and a change in nuclear doctrine.
“talk about Ukraine first of all it's the thousandth day I think today uh since moscow's fullscale invasion of Ukraine Donald Trump as you said has boasted of solving it potentially in one day we've seen this authorization by Joe Biden of the use of long range missiles Ukraine's indeed fired them uh you know it's Russia's described it as an escalation change of this nuclear Doctrine”
Friedman visited Israel, the UAE, and the West Bank recently and came back feeling despair about politics.
“I just came from the Middle East I was in Israel in the UAE and the West Bank and and um my wife said God how do you feel and I I just said honey I started I despair about politics now I'm just into physics”
The New York Times employs five of the best conservative columnists in the business (David Brooks, Ross Douthat, Brett Stephens, David French, and John McArthur), and readers of their work would not have been subject to the claimed liberal bias in coverage.
“well again if you read the New York Times um uh if you read the New York Times you'll discover we have I think the five best conservative columnists in the business right now um David Brooks rth doot Brett Stevens David French and John mcarter [14:42]”
Donald Trump is a unique figure in political history—entertaining, outrageous, crude, dishonest, and criminal—yet Friedman has maintained a journalistic relationship with him and once was quoted favorably by Trump regarding the Abraham Accords, after which Trump called to compliment him.
“I think Donald Trump is a unique figure in history the political history have you met him what's he like um yeah so we know each other um uh and um uh he can be extremely entertaining um in person um uh outrageous but entertaining the last time I talked to him actually it's quite opposite for what's going on right now in fact for the column I just press send on a minute before I came out here um uh when the Abraham Accords were signed um these [12:05] these were Accords which normalized Israel and bahin and and UAE and um uh Morocco and Sudan um uh I I embraced them I thought this is really good and I I I strongly endorsed them and and he quoted that and then uh he called me and said uh Tom I can't believe the new yorktimes s let you say that he said Donald I can write whatever I want you know um when you do the right thing I will write it [12:35] and when you do the wrong thing I'll write it um that was the last time we spoke”
Friedman spent time recently in Israel, the UAE, and the West Bank and came away from these visits feeling despair about politics, but also a new focus on physics rather than persuasion.
“and it's why you know I will talk about it you know soon I just came from the Middle East I was in Israel in the UAE and the West Bank and and um my wife said God how do you feel and I I just said honey I started I despair about politics now I'm just into physics you know I mean I'm just into the sheer weight of things changing people I don't think I can change anyone's mind anymore”
Friedman just finished a column before arriving at the event discussing whether Joe Biden should have resigned earlier, implying this was a recent, urgent concern for him.
“the last time I talked to him actually it's quite opposite for what's going on right now in fact for the column I just press send on a minute before I came out here”
Friedman spent a full day at DeepMind before the event, learning about AI and artificial general intelligence capabilities.
“AI is a particular Obsession of mine but let's not get into that tonight...at Deep Mind where I SP all day today”
The moderator asks Friedman to discuss 'a couple of very big specific conflicts,' beginning with Ukraine, and notes that Trump 'might inherit a conflict that is in a new phase a much hotter phase.'
“you're clearly concerned about where [23:01] we've arrived let's talk about a couple of very big specific conflicts talk about Ukraine first of all... Donald Trump might inherit a conflict that is in a new phase a much [23:33] hotter phase how do you think how equipped is he to handle that”
Friedman endorsed Kamala Harris and voted for her publicly, though he has never spoken to her (only once bumped into her).
“I'm not happy about this I I endorsed publicly and voted for KLA Harris um for my own reasons and um who I've never spoken to or you know once bumped into by the way”