The Coming Global Depopulation | Nicholas Eberstadt | John Bonython Lecture
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What could plunging birth rates mean for Australia?
For the first time since the bubonic plague decimated Europe, the world’s population is decreasing. As a result of plummeting birth rates, more and more societies fall into an era of ongoing and unending depopulation.
East Asia, for instance, will have more people over 80 than children under 15 by 2050. As their work aged populations decline, China, Japan and South Korea will undoubtedly find it harder to generate economic growth. People will struggle to build wealth. There won’t be enough workers to fund their safety nets and our young people to fight in wars. Consequently, the long-heralded China-led “Asian Century” may never arrive.
Thus, we have entered world of shrinking and aging societies. How worried should we be? Should governments encourage higher birth rates? Moreover, can our leaders and policymakers respond effectively? Also, should they?
Nicholas Eberstadt will answers these questions and more at our Annual Gala Dinner. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ CIS promotes free choice and individual liberty and the open exchange of ideas. CIS encourages debate among leading academics, politicians, media and the public. We aim to make sure good policy ideas are heard and seriously considered so that Australia can prosper. Follow CIS on our Socials;
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Nicholas Eberstadt argues that global depopulation driven by sub-replacement fertility is imminent and will profoundly reshape economies, societies, and geopolitics, but depopulating societies can maintain prosperity if they embrace human capital development, immigration, and economic growth.
- Sub-replacement fertility is spreading globally across rich and poor countries regardless of development level, with no historical precedent for reversal once countries dip below very low fertility
- Depopulation will create aging societies with shrinking workforces, but technological progress and human ingenuity can sustain economic growth independent of population size
- Demographic differentials will reshape geopolitical power, favoring immigration-friendly nations like the US and Australia while undermining revisionist powers like China and Russia
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Economist Lant Pritchett identified that the most powerful predictor of national fertility is the number of children women say they want—establishing that human agency and volition, not structural factors, drive fertility outcomes.
“eventually Economist lant Pritchett identified the most powerful National fertility predictor of them all and guess what that decisive Factor turned out to be the number of children that women said they want who knew right human agency who would have guessed”
Paul Ehrlich's 1968 'Population Bomb' predictions of mass starvation in the 1970s, England disappearing by 2000, and US life expectancy dropping to 42 years by 1980 all failed to materialize because human ingenuity, economic growth, and technological progress prevented the predicted Malthusian collapse.
“in the late 9 1960s a Stanford University biologist named Paul Erick published an important book it was called the population bomb and it began with these words quote the battle to feed humanity is over in the 1970s the world will undergo famines hundreds of millions of people will starve to death”
George Wald warned in 1970 that 'Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken to reduce population growth,' and the 1972 Club of Rome's Limits to Growth report predicted the world would run out of gold, tin, mercury, silver, and oil within two decades.
“in 1970 the Harvard biologist George wal warned quote Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken to reduce population growth”
Life expectancy at birth in the world's longest-lived countries has been heading upward for nearly two centuries on an almost perfectly straight trajectory of about three months per year, and this trend has no known limit.
“remember the limits of human longevity are not yet known life expectancy at Birth in the world's longest lived countries has been heading upward for nearly two centuries on an almost perfectly straight trajectory about three months every year still is remarkable but true”
Despite the massive population growth of the past century, the planet is far richer and far better fed than ever before, and more people have lived longer and more prosperous lives with dramatic falls in global poverty, most notably in India and China.
“of course none of this came to pass all those doomsday scenarios did not happen simply because human Ingenuity economic growth and technological progress saved the day more people have lived longer and more prosperous lives poverty across the globe has fallen dramatically most notably in India and especially China”
Mary Midgley describes social learning loss as 'the cat stuck in the tree problem'—kittens rescued by fire departments become pets unable to climb because they did not learn from others of their kind, similarly humans may find it easier to choose low fertility regimens than to return to larger families.
“public intellectual Mary EAD I don't know if you've heard of her she's very good uh describes social learning loss as the cat stuck in the tree problem uh those kittens rescued by fire department seem variably to be pets who did not live around or learn to climb from others of Their Own Kind so too perhaps with humans and their fertility patterns it may prove very much easier for humans to choose to enter into prolonged low fertility regimens than to choose to return to larger families”
France tallied fewer births in the prior year than in 1806 when Napoleon won the Battle of Waterloo, indicating Europe's profound demographic decline.
“last year France tallied fewer births than in 1806 when Napoleon won the Battle of Y”
The dollar is still the reserve currency and the US still has room for fecklessness, though it has already used some, suggesting the US has fiscal space remaining but ultimately fiscal discipline will be required.
“Mark the E is still a reserved currency the dollars is still a reserved currency there there's a there's a lot of for fecklessness and we've used quite a bit of it but there's still more”
The world's fertility rate was only half as high in 2015 as it was 50 years earlier (in 1965), and every country in the world experienced fertility declines during this 50-year period according to UN Population Division data.
“according to the UN population division the world's fertility rate the average number of births per woman per lifetime was only half as high in 2015 as 50 years earlier by unpd Reckoning every country saw birth rate drops over that period every country”
Japan, the longest-standing depopulator, has remained one of the world's largest economies despite demographic decline, offering hope that the same might apply to Taiwan, South Korea, and Northeast Asian tigers.
“we've seen this story a bit before though with Japan in the 1970s uh there was a lot of Doom and Gloom about Japan's uh demographic death spiral in the 1970s and Ja Japan remains one of the world's largest economies uh so it's not been the disaster that many people imagined”
What we've seen over the last decade in China is a retrogression in business climate, particularly because the Communist Party established central committees in every Western business, which is not conducive to unlocking the value of human resources.
“certainly what we've seen over the last decade in China has been a sort of a retrogression in business climate I don't want to get too much into the Weeds on that but I I don't think it's really great for business climate to establish uh you know a uh Communist party uh Central in every Western business um so uh it's not it's not clear to me that the that the CCP at the moment is more interested in economic flourishing than political control”
An empathy gap has developed in the US where it's exceedingly difficult for people in one political party to describe in recognizable form what people in the other party actually believe.
“there is um there's a great lack of trust in the United States part of this has to do with an empathy Gap that has developed with in my country where seems to be for some reason exceedingly taxing for people in one political party to describe in a recognizable form what people in the other political party actually believe and so there's there's less trust and um too little respect uh in the contending uh in the contending factors a for the body politic”
Betting markets are better predictors than public opinion polls because they ask people who they think will win rather than who they want to win, containing more information.
“I follow the betting markets because I think that they're better predictors than the public opinion polls it does look as if at the why is that um because the betting markets ask people who they think is going to win rather than who they want to win and there's I think there's more information in it”
Robert McNamara, as World Bank president in the early-to-mid 1970s, likened rampant population growth to thermonuclear holocaust, which justified throwing tens of millions of dollars in tax money into state-mandated population control.
“Robert mcnamar who of course was the defense secretary in the Kennedy and the Johnson administrations he was in the World Bank president in the early to mid 1970s and he likened quote rampant population growth to thermonuclear Holocaust which Justified throwing tens of millions of dollars tax dollars into state-mandated population control”
The world has never been as widely and deeply schooled as it is today, with remarkable improvements in health and education globally resulting from application of science and social knowledge, and there is no reason to expect this rise in training to stop.
“the world has never been as widely and deeply schooled as it is today and there's no reason to expect the rise and training to stop given the immen gains that ACR from education to both societies and the trainees themselves remarkable improvements in health and education around the world speak to the application of science and social knowledge the stock of which has been relentlessly advancing thanks to human inquiry and Innovation that drive will not stop now”
Trump's key advantage was judicial appointments, particularly Supreme Court nominees, where he satisfied and surprised many backers through constitutionalist approach to the Constitution with long-term benefits.
“the one area when he was president where he uh kind of um satisfied and in some way surprised his backers was in his support for the Supreme Court with putting nominees on the Supreme Court there's a long-term uh there's a long-term benefit from having a kind of a constitutionalist approach to the Constitution”
Pay-as-you-go social programs for pensions and old-age health care will eventually fail in depopulating societies as working populations shrink and elderly claimants balloon, creating misaligned incentives that require policy reform.
“pay as you go social programs for National pension and old age Health Care will eventually fail as the working populations shrink and elderly claimants balloon current incentives are seriously misaligned for the Advent of depopulation but policy reforms and private sector responses can hasten necessary realignments”
There is a school of thought called 'geriatric peace' claiming countries become more risk-averse as they age, but this theory may not apply well to authoritarian regimes like Putin's Russia or Xi's China.
“mean there is a school of thought in the academy about what's called geriatric peace it means that there countryes become grayer they become more risk averse and I think if the country you're studying is Belgium that's probably true but I don't think that works quite as well with Putin's Russia or with xiin Ping's China for for autocracies you can see a lot of reasons that they might become more skittish U more uh more uh aware of vulnerabilities including domestic vulnerabilities uh with aging and shrinking”
Over the last generation or more, people have had incentives to avoid finding consensus, suggesting institutional design has been undermined by modern incentives.
“it's it's made naturally defined uh defined consensus and unfortunately uh in over the last generation or more uh people have had a lot of incentive to kind of avoid finding consensus”
The assumption that humans are hardwired by sociobiology to replace themselves should be questioned, while memetic theory—which emphasizes volition and social learning—may better explain fertility patterns and the difficulty of reversing low fertility once established.
“today's population Trends should raise serious questions about all the old nostrums from sociobiology that humans are somehow hardwired to replace themselves to continue the species of conversely so-called memetic Theory which stresses the role of volition and social learning might Merit closer scrutiny”
The real issue explaining fertility decline is not affordability but priorities: despite having more income, housing, cars, and vacations than ever before, people have fewer children, suggesting a shift in preferences rather than economic constraint.
“if you look at the United States if you look at Europe I suspect if you look at Australia uh people have never had as much income as they have today they've never had as much housing space as they have today they've never had as many cars as they have today they've never had as many vacations as they have today uh there's just one thing that they have fewer of yeah as children and that doesn't tell me but just by looking at those facts that this is a question of affordability it looks like a question of priorities”
To adapt successfully to depopulation, states, businesses, and individuals must place premium on responsibility and savings as people live longer and healthier into advanced years, retire later, and engage in voluntary economic activity at ever older ages, making lifelong learning imperative.
“to adapt successfully to a depopulating world States businesses and individuals will have to place a premium on responsibility and savings as people live longer and are healthier into their Advanced years they will retire later voluntary economic activity at ever older ages will make lifelong learning imperative”
Fertility levels have a much more powerful impact on social aging than longevity; the march to low fertility and super-low birth rates is generating worldwide wave of top-heavy population pyramids where the old outnumber the young.
“perhaps counterintuitively fertility levels have much more powerful impact on social aging than longevity so the march to low fertility and now to super low birth rates is generating a worldwide wave of topheavy population pyramids where the old beginning to outnumber the young”
India's urban fertility levels are now as low as Europe's, exemplified by Kolkata's fertility at one birth per woman per lifetime, lower than any major European city.
“India's Urban fertility levels are just about as low as Europe's Kolkata vast Kolkata its fertility is now down to an amazing one birth per woman per lifetime that's lower than any major European city”
By 2050, two-thirds of the planet's population could live in countries with dwindling workforces due to the spread of sub-replacement fertility.
“labor forces will shrink due to the spread of sub repacement by 2050 2/3 of the planet's population could live in countries with dwindling workforces”
A stunning 94% of youth in sub-Saharan Africa lack even basic skills according to standardized testing, undermining the region's human capital despite population growth.
“the outlook for human capital in subsaharan Africa remains disappointing according to standardized testing in fact a stunning 94% of Youth in the region lack even basic skills”
The US faces a major problem on its Southern border with 2 million migrants crossing; uncontrolled migration is poisoning American public sentiment against immigration, which is critical because immigration is America's ace card.
“we have um we have a big problem in the United States on our Southern border uh at the moment that I don't think is exactly a secret and what concerns me the most about that honestly is I think that if I were trying to design a uh an event or a policy that would poison American settlement against continuing positive immigration I don't think you could do much better than what's going on there”
The distribution of years of schooling worldwide is also shrinking pervasively and systematically with improvements in mean years of schooling, showing inequality is diminishing in things that matter to human beings, not increasing.
“by the same token the distribution of years of schooling all around the world is also shrinking pervasively and systematically with the improvements in mean years of schooling around the world uh I think we're seeing a lot of evidence that by things that matter to human beings inequality is diminishing not increasing”
The essence of modern economic development is the unchaining of human potential; human capital plus a clement business climate are the keys to boundless wealth generation over time, independent of population size.
“the essence of modern economic development is the unchaining of human potential something that you at C CIS know quite a bit about i' would say uh human capital plus Clement business climate are the keys to boundless wealth generation over time”
Prosperity in a depopulating world depends on open economies, free trade in goods, services, and finances to counter the constraints that shrinking populations would otherwise create.
“prosperity in a depopulating world will also depend upon open economies free trade in Goods services and finances to counter the constraints that shrinking populations otherwise engender”
Studies on consumption by age and year of life in the United States show that consumption by the old is consistently and significantly higher than consumption by the young, contradicting Quiggin's arithmetic.
“I can tell you that in the United States there have been a lot of studies on uh consumption by age by year of life and uh consumption by the old is consistently significantly higher than consumption by the young uh so I don't know that that arithmetic Works particularly in the United States”
A government ministry trying to change people's minds about how many children to have might achieve some results but would sound scary, suggesting that changing preferences through persuasion is problematic.
“if you had a uh if you had a government Ministry that tried to change people's minds about uh how many children they wanted to have you might end up with some us but that sounds a little scary to me”
The US Constitution is designed to force people to negotiate with each other; success depends on finding consensus, which requires grown-up leadership rather than grandstanding before limited constituencies.
“so so it you have to go back to the Constitution the Constitution is a Doctrine which more or Les which is designed to force people to negotiate with each other uh it's not a Doctrine by by which you're going to uh lead to enduring success by grandstanding uh in front of a limited constituency it's it's made naturally defined uh defined consensus and unfortunately uh in over the last generation or more uh people have had a lot of incentive to kind of avoid finding consensus uh but the the framework is there and uh if we had I guess a little bit more grown-up leadership in the United States I think we'd we'd see the benefit”
If China redefines working age and improves labor market participation rates, it could address demographic crisis; current workforce participation by age in China is about the same as Japan and the US, suggesting limited scope for increasing it.
“if the CCP redefines working age to include older people and improve the participation rate in the labor market won't China be better able to address the demographic crisis it it sounds like it should...uh if you look at the workforce participation in China uh by age it's about the same as in Japan it's about the same as in the USA which is to say that even at older ages uh quite a few people in China are working more than in Europe for example I don't think there's that much scope for increasing that”
Even in an aging, shrinking world, steadily improving living standards and material and technological advances will still be possible, countering demographic pessimism.
“even in an aging shrinking World steadily improving living standards and material and technological advances will still be possible this crucial Point must be underscored if only to counter unwarranted demographic pessimism”
Immigration will matter even more in depopulating societies than it does today, and the movement of people will become a scarce resource as the hunger for talent intensifies.
“and as the hunger for scarce Talent becomes more acute the movement of people will take on new saliens in the shadow of depopulation immigration will matter even more than it does today”
China's youth skills profile is decades or generations ahead of India's today, so India is unlikely to surpass a depopulating China economically for a long time.
“the Skills profile for China's youth is decades maybe Generations ahead of India's today so India is unlikely to surpass a depopulating China economically for a long time”
The record of pro-natalist policies worldwide is well-meaning but shows very modest long-term demographic gains relative to cost, because the real determinant of family size is what people want to have.
“the record of pratal policies around the world as I read it is uh well well-meaning perhaps but very expensive for very modest long-term demographic gains for reason that I mentioned of L pritchett's uh observation that the real the real most important determinant of family size is the number of children that people uh want to have”
If China's demographic death spiral continues, we can expect Xi Jinping or future CCP leaders to be more desperate and therefore more dangerous, potentially seeking military solutions to demographic problems similar to Putin's Russia approach.
“if you're right if this demographic death SPO continues in China could we expect to see China's Xi Jinping or whoever is leading the CCP a bit like Putin's Russia could we expect uh these countries to seek military solutions to their demographic problems in other words could their awareness of the demographic Doom Loop make them more desperate and therefore more dangerous oh I think very definitely so”
The 'reductio ad Hitlerum' comparisons to Trump seem historically hysterical and overblown; the US does have political problems and lack of trust, but they're manageable within the constitutional framework.
“the whole reducio ad hitlerum thing that we've heard for the better part of the past decade it it seems to me is kind of hysterical and overblown we have plenty of political problems in the United States and there is um there's a great lack of trust in the United States...but...the framework is there”
If Australia adopts skills-based immigration policy, it will be able to decide who are skilled people that should be contributing to its future rather than expecting large influxes of migrants from Muslim-majority regions based on demographic differences.
“I said to the extent you're right that means we shouldn't expect a huge influx of Muslim immigrants uh with with immigration well comp to African at least there there may there may be uh there may be people who want to come to Australia but I think if you have a skills-based policy as I read your uh read your documents you'll be able to decide who's going to be uh who are going to be the skilled people that should be contributing to your future”
The concern that fewer people mean fewer demands on resources (fish, farmland, fossil fuels) and thus less climate change provides an ecological argument for depopulation, but human ingenuity—not depopulation—is the key to saving the planet.
“a school of thought um that says managed population decline is not only uh desirable but it's essential to our long-term survival and the argument goes like this that fewer humans mean fewer demands on everything from fish to Farmland to fossil fuels emissions that create climate change in other words shrink the economy to save the world how do you respond to that critique I mean if you uh if you don't like having people around you're in luck just wait around a little bit but I think that in uh uh of course it's true that with uh smaller population there'll be more land per person...it's not clear to me that uh that depopulation is uh is the key to saving the planet though I think that human Ingenuity is the key to saving the planet”
Rapid fertility decline in Muslim-majority countries wasn't because they underwent Taiwan-style socioeconomic modernization but because a change in mentality occurred despite the teachings of Islam.
“and it's not because they were having Taiwan style socioeconomic modernization it's because there's a change in mentality that was occurring despite the teachings I kind said to the extent you're right”
The worldwide march into sub-replacement fertility remains mysterious to demographers because economic development and material advance do not reliably predict fertility decline, as shown by impoverished countries like Myanmar and Nepal being sub-replacement despite low development.
“this most important of all modern social movements remains mysterious to those of us who study it nonsense you say Economic Development and material Advance explain the world's slide into super low birth rates and national population decline right not so fast Myanmar and Nepal are impoverished un designated least developed countries but they are also sub-replacement societies”
Despite all military innovations in battle, there is no substitute for warm and vulnerable bodies in warfare; defense cannot be undertaken without sacrifices including sometimes the ultimate sacrifice.
“despite all the Innovations changing the face of battle there is still no substitute in war for warm and vulnerable bodies defense of one's country cannot be undertaken without sacrifices including sometimes the ultimate sacrifice”
Sub-Saharan Africa remains the only major bastion against global sub-replacement fertility with approximately 1.2 billion people and a fertility rate over 4 babies per woman, though fertility has already fallen by a third since the population explosion days, and South Africa is fractionally above replacement with other Southern African countries following.
“the only major remaining Bastion against Global uh sub repacement fertility is subsaharan Africa with its roughly 1.2 billion people and a fertility rate of over four babies per woman the region is the planet's last consequential redout of population explosion style childbearing but even there things are changing fertility in subsaharan Africa is already fallen by a third since the population explosion days in South Africa birth levels are just fractionally above replacement”
Extreme poverty in India has dropped below 1%, representing profound improvement in human welfare that critics of growth tend to overlook.
“uh I didn't think I would live to see the day where extreme poverty in India is down below 1% um I think people in India would probably think that's pretty good”
Australia has paid maternity leave, family tax benefit allowances, and subsidized childcare, yet fertility continues to decline, raising questions about whether government spending on family support can reverse fertility trends.
“we've also had paid maternity leave uh we have various family tax benefit allowances uh subsidized child care now...we do a lot here uh to help uh address this issue”
Government spending on NDIS, Gonski schools funding, aged care, and childcare is going through the roof as percentages of GDP in Australia, creating fiscal pressures that compound depopulation challenges.
“Robert Carling is here this evening he talks about the um there about five or six areas of government spending as a percentage of GDP that are going through the roof we all know about ndis this is our national disability program um uh gonsky schools uh funding um Age Care Child Care is one of them as well”
There are pressing problems the US faces including human resource problems (life expectancy decline, stalled educational attainment, falling fertility, Southern border collapse) and budgetary problems that Eberhardt has written about.
“there are um negative Trends eating away at uh the foundations of us power...us life expectancy has been dropping for much of the past decade us progress in public health indicators have been painfully slow and very expensive improving and educational attainment have stalled in the US in recent decades us fertility rates have been falling recent decades failure to defend and secure America's Southern border...not to mention the problem with debt”
A decade ago, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the greatest national security threat to America wasn't China, Russia, or Sunni jihadists but toxic political polarization in Washington (the two square miles between the Capitol building and White House).
“one of the small s you know pleasant surprises in the United States in uh recent years has been uh the leadership that we've seen from the current uh speaker of the house from Mike Johnson somebody that very few in America had heard of before last year and I think very few people of abroad have it is still possible to find uh leadership in Washington and I think that Mike Johnson has shown no you know shown a way that would hope more would follow well on that optimistic note it's been a pleasure Nick thank you very much for decades CIS has been a fiercely independent voice...A decade ago you may remember Nick uh Robert Gates who was the defense secretary under both presidents Bush and Obama he said um a decade ago so before Trump even arrived on the scene that the greatest national security threat to the United States wasn't China or Russia or Sunni jihadist like Islamic State or Iran the greatest national security threat to the United States Gat said was the two square miles between the capital building and the White House in other words that toxic political polarization”
India's rise is compromised by human resource vulnerabilities: while it has world-class cohorts of scientists and elite graduates, education for ordinary Indians lags woefully behind, with seven out of eight young people lacking basic skills.
“India has a world-class contr of scientists technicians and Elite graduates yet education for ordinary Indians lags woefully behind a shocking seven out of eight young people in India today lack basic skills”
China's legal retirement age has been unchanged for over 70 years: 60 for men, 55 for women (white-collar), and 50 for blue-collar workers; these guarantees apply only to state-owned enterprises and some municipalities.
“the legal retirement age for men in mainland China is 60 for women it's 55 for white collar workers and 50 for blue collar workers now those ages have been unchanged for more than 70 years...the problem is that the guarantees only apply to a very small portion of the Chinese labor market the state-owned Enterprises and to some of the municipalities a fifth maybe a quarter of the entire very very limited”
Ukraine's human resource situation is more Russian than Russia itself: very low fertility, big health problems, and a paradox of high education but low human capital with poor health and poor knowledge production.
“I've I've paid a little bit of attention to looking at you were there a few months ago I was there a few months ago I've been paying attention to what re Human Resources would uh would look like in an eventual reconstruction of the country and part of the part of the problem for Ukraine is that in some ways is their human resource situation is more Russian than Russia they've got uh uh they have very low fertility they've got big health problems they uh they have this Paradox just as Russia has of seemingly high education but low human capital with poor health and poor knowledge production”
Iran has been sub-replacement for about a quarter of a century, and fertility is now lower in Istanbul than in Berlin, contradicting the assumption that Islamic faith acts as a bulwark against fertility decline.
“Iran has been sub repacement for about a quarter of a century in sub repacement turkey birth levels are lower today in Istanbul than they are in Berlin”
The US Census Bureau projects that America's population could peak around 2080 and decline continuously thereafter, making depopulation no longer unthinkable for the United States.
“the US Census Bureau now projects that America's population could Peak around 2080 and decline continuously thereafter”
Casualty tolerance in depopulating countries may depend greatly on unforeseen contingent conditions and may turn out to surprise observers; Ukraine and Russia—both established depopulators—have absorbed grievous casualties in war for over two years.
“casualty tolerance in depopulating countries may depend greatly on unforeseen contingent condition and may turn out to surprise the Russian invasion of Ukraine provides a test both countries were already long-established depopulates on the eve of the invasion and both the authoritarian aggressor and the Democratic Defender have proved willing to absorve Grievous casualties in the war now grinding into its third year”
The most fundamental thing government can do to help populations in depopulation is help them become as rich as fast as they can, so people can decide what to do with their own money.
“the most fundamental thing that uh government policy can do is to help uh populations become as rich as fast as they can and people can decide what they're going to do with their own money”
Neil Ferguson argues that a great power that spends more servicing debt than on defense won't remain great for long, raising concerns about US fiscal sustainability.
“Neil Ferguson the distinguished Scottish historian...he makes the point uh that a great power that spends more on servicing its death then spending on defense won't remain great for long”
Depopulation will transform how governments deal with one another and alter the balance of power, but the ways it will scramble geopolitics are largely unpredictable.
“depopulation will not only transform how governments deal with their citizens it will also transform how they deal with one another Humanity shrinking ranks will inexorably alter the current government current balance of power and strain the existing World in some ways it will do with this are relatively easy to foresee but depopulation is also going to scramble geopolitics in the ways that we can't yet predict”
A coalescing partnership between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia is intent on challenging the US-led Western order, but demographic tides run against these revisionist countries.
“a coalescing partnership between between China Iran North Korea and Russia is intent on challenging the us-led Western order these revisionist countries have ambitious aggressive leadership seemingly confident in their International objectives but the demographic Tides run against them”
Western nations like Australia shouldn't expect a huge immigration intake from sub-Saharan Africa or Sunni and Shia Muslim parts of the Persian Gulf and Middle East because fertility is dropping rapidly in Muslim-majority regions.
“to the extent that's true should Western Nations like Australia uh in coming decades expect a huge immigration intake from not just subsaharan Africa that you highlighted in your lecture but also the Sunni and Shia Muslim parts of the Persian Gulf in the Middle East one of the things which I I found so surprising...so many things that are surprising about population Trends...one of the things things which I found surprising was how rapidly birth rates are dropping in the Oma...so to the extent you're right that means we shouldn't expect a huge influx of Muslim immigrants uh with with immigration well comp to African at least”
East Asia entered into depopulation in 2021 with fertility levels 40% below replacement in Japan, 50% below in China, almost 60% below in Taiwan, and 65% below replacement in South Korea.
“the entire region entered into depopulation in 2021 by 2022 every major country there was shrinking today fertility levels are 40% below replacement in Japan 50% Below in China almost 60% Below in Taiwan and an astonishing 65% below replacement in South Korea”
Australia's fertility rate was about 3.5 in the early 1960s and is now about 1.6-1.8, having temporarily increased to 2-2.5 in the 2000s, primarily due to the Howard government's baby bonus policy.
“if you go back to the early 60s the fertility rate here in this country uh was about 3.5 today it's about 1.6 maybe 1.8 did get up to 2 to 2 and a half I think in the 2000s uh primarily some would argue because of the Howard costell government's policy on the baby bonus”
China presents the biggest question mark regarding depopulation and willingness to fight because its military will be staffed largely by men raised as only children; a mass casualty event would have devastating consequences, bringing entire lineages to an end.
“China presents perhaps the biggest question mark when it comes to depopulation and willingness to fight today and tomorrow China's military will perforce be staffed in large part by men raised as only children a mass casualty event would have devastating consequences for families across the country bringing entire lineages to an end”
The Guardian's claim that economic growth enriches the already-rich while failing to deliver equality misses the crucial point: the most important measure of inequality is life expectancy, which has radically shrunk in distribution over the 20th century and continues shrinking.
“there are a lot of different ways of measuring inequality my favorite way is the inequality between being alive and being dead and one of the remarkable and unexamined phenomena with the explosion of Health around the world has been the change in the distribution of years of life on the planet if you did the same sort of Genie coefficient that you hear about on income for Genie coefficient on years of life you know age at death you'd find that the inequality in lifespans has radically shrunk over the course of the 20th century and is continuing to shrink that's why the Gap in life expectancy between rich and poor countries is shrinking”
There is a growing movement in Australia supporting slashing immigration to address housing affordability crisis, though economist Peter Tulip disagrees with this argument.
“there's a growing movement in this country uh that supports slashing immigration to among other things address our housing affordability crisis our chief Economist in this area Peter tulip agree disagrees with that argument”
It is possible but not certain that humanity as a whole has already dropped below the replacement level globally, though we lack current data for sub-Saharan Africa to confirm this.
“all in all taking all of this into account account it is possible it's not certain but it is possible that Humanity as a whole has already dropped that the planet has already dropped below the replacement level we can't tell yet owing to the lack of up-to-date data for sub Saharan Africa”
India is now the world's most populous country on track to grow further for at least another few decades, and its demographics virtually assure it will be a major power in 2050.
“India is now the world's most populous country on track to grow further for at least another few decades its demographics virtually assure the country will be a major power in 2050”
Russia and China are long-standing sub-replacement societies with shrinking manpower and declining populations, while Iran is far below replacement levels and North Korea's demographics remain state secrets but Kim Jong-un's public worries suggest demographic problems.
“Russia and China are long-standing sub-replacement societies now both with shrinking Manpower and declining populations Iran is likewise far below replacement levels population on North Korea remain State Secrets but Kim jong-un's very public worrying about national birth rates suggests he's not happy about the country's demographics”
US demographic fundamentals look fairly sound by comparison to competitors and demographic trends are on course to augment American power over the decades immediately ahead, supporting continued US global dominance.
“as for the United States demographic fundamentals look fairly sound at least by comparison to the comp competition demographic Trends are on course to augment American power over the decades immediately ahead lending support for continuing us Global dominance”
The United States has benefited immensely from immigration over its entire history, with the benefits exceeding costs, and this is likely true for Australia as well.
“the United States has benefited immensely from immigration over uh over the entirety of its history and you don't have to be uh you know kind of a Horatio aler about this there are always a lot of problems with assimilation there's always a lot of uh pains with it but the the benefits of immigration for the United States I think have clearly exceeded the costs at least to date and I'd be surprised if that isn't the case for Australia as well”
The flight from family underway in the rich world is manifestly also a flight from sacrifice, as children represent inconvenience and sacrifice; but young men with few familial bonds might be less risk-averse and more attracted to military service.
“the flight from family underw way throughout much of the rich world today is manifestly a flight from sacrifice too on the other hand it's possible that many people especially young men with few familial bonds or obligations might be less risk averse more hungry for the kind of community belonging and sense of purpose that military service might offer”
Human volition—the driver behind today's worldwide declines in childbearing—will be no less powerful a force tomorrow than it is today, and humanity will need all its signature inventiveness and adaptability to cope with the consequences of current fertility choices.
“human volition the driver behind today's worldwide declines in childbearing stands to be no less powerful of force tomorrow than it is today Humanity bestrides the Planet explores the cosmos and continues to reshape itself because we are the world's most inventive and adaptable of animals we will undoubtedly need all our species trademark inventiveness and adaptability to cope with the manifold unintended future consequences of the family and fertility choices we are making today”
A nightmare scenario would be a zone of important depopulating countries accounting for much of the world's output frozen by pessimism, anxiety, and resistance to reform into sclerosis or decline.
“the nightmare scenario would be a zone of important but depopulating countries accounting for much of the world's output Frozen by pessimism anxiety and resistance to reform into sclerosis or decline”
The biggest challenge for depopulating societies is not economic but the implosion of family structure: in Japan, a woman born in 1990 has about even odds of never seeing any biological grandchildren given current marriage and childbearing patterns.
“there's one thing I didn't mention though uh which I thought would get us down too much of a rabbit hole oh what we're seeing now in Japan we're going to see elsewhere is the implosion of the family structure uh in Japan today a woman born in 1990 uh has about even odds of living to see any any biological grandchildren given marriage and childbearing patterns”
Artificial intelligence, robotics, and information technology combined with ending the one-child policy could boost China's demographic levels in coming decades, according to CCP officials.
“they would say that they've got it under control because of artificial intelligence robotics information technology and taken together with the end of the one China policy that had been in place since the 1980s that means that China will actually boost its demographic levels uh in coming decades”
Robert Kagan argues that a reelected Donald Trump could create or bring about fascism in the United States; Ed Luce says America could be on the cusp of civil war.
“Robert Kagan uh a neoconservative scholar at the Brookings institution who actually gave the John benthan lecture here 20 years ago um he says that a reelected Donald Trump could create or bring about fascism in the United States he's not alone but he's in the oon and then it got you got someone like Ed loose from the financial times the prent British colonist in Washington he says that America could very well be on the cusp of a civil war”
John Quiggin claims that the fertility crisis is bogus because raising children costs more than caring for old people, making replacement-level fertility economically irrational.
“John quigan um was a professor at the University of Queensland for many years...he says that the fertility crisis is bogus...the cost of raising children is much higher than the cost of looking after old people...so raising a baby to look after an old person makes no sense”
Compared to competitors, not compared to an ideal, the United States has the immigration advantage, and Eberhardt would not want to trade the US hand for China's.
“compared to competitors not compared to the ideal or compared to the W way I would wish things to work in my country compared to real existing competitors uh the United States has the advantage and would uh would I or would Kure want to trade uh the US hand for the Chinese hand I don't think so”
Australia is well-positioned for the future in depopulation because it has the capacity and political will to attract talent from abroad competitively and has favorable geopolitical circumstances.
“Australia I may add looks to be well positioned for the future in this regard and in some others as well”
Trump has a very slight advantage in betting markets for 2024 election, but slight advantages are something he's sometimes quite good at losing.
“I would tend to think that Trump has a very slight Advantage here but as we know from seeing Donald Trump on the world stage uh for a decade uh slight Advantage is something that he's uh sometimes quite good at uh losing”
Eberhardt would like to see Trump win if he demonstrates more constitutionalist approach to the judiciary, specifically through Supreme Court appointments, though Trump's unpredictability and narcissism are concerning.
“there there are a few there are a few principled names that uh I mean in politics today uh well I mean it's obviously going to be Harris little Trump though he can't get it out of it like that I mean who well well C certainly uh you certainly the i' I'd like to say uh I'd like to say Trump the problem with Trump I think is not exactly uh secret to anybody um he's uh uh um he surprised uh he surprised a lot of his backers and disappointed a lot of his backers with this kind of unpredictability and maybe narcissism question is uh what would happen uh what would happen if he became president again the one area when he was president where he uh kind of um satisfied and in some way surprised his backers was in his support for the Supreme Court with putting nominees on the Supreme Court there's a long-term uh there's a long-term benefit from having a kind of a constitutionalist approach to the Constitution um it's uh but his unpredictability is very disturbing”
A key question about Trump's potential presidency is who he chooses as his executive team and how he gets along with Congress; Mike Johnson's leadership suggests good people can still be found in Washington.
“it's it's going to be a it's going to be a big question about uh who Trump uh if if he wins about who Trump chooses as his executive team and how he gets along with the uh with the Congress one of the small s you know pleasant surprises in the United States in uh recent years has been uh the leadership that we've seen from the current uh speaker of the house from Mike Johnson somebody that very few in America had heard of before last year and I think very few people of abroad have it is still possible to find uh leadership in Washington and I think that Mike Johnson has shown no you know shown a way that would hope more would follow”