Is Russia Actually Losing?
What this covers
Patrick Boyle walks through Russia's economic reckoning four years into its invasion of Ukraine. The video runs the numbers on war spending, reserve depletion, and resource dependence—using figures from the Kiel Institute's "Endgame" report alongside quarterly budget data and trade statistics—to argue that Russia has exhausted its strategic position rather than restored it. The central claim is straightforward: an energy superpower now rationing fuel at home, importing gasoline from India, and running a state budget that blew through its annual deficit target in ninety days. The framing is granular and materialist—not about morale or resolve, but about the arithmetic of a war economy hitting structural limits.
The video crosses several territories. It documents Ukraine's drone campaign as a specific pressure point: one-third of Russian refining capacity destroyed, air defense systems pulled from civilian coverage to defend Moscow, and a victory parade stripped of military hardware for the first time in decades because moving tanks through open squares has become unsafe. It examines how China has transformed partnership into subordination, now accounting for 35% of Russian foreign trade and controlling dual-use technology supplies at preferential terms. It surveys Europe's rearmament—Germany's 800-billion-euro commitment, Ukraine's own rapid innovation (cruise missiles built in nine months at one-fifth American cost)—alongside the puzzle that defense stocks underperformed the broader market in March 2026 despite the spending surge. The video also addresses claims about Russian traditionalism and spiritual unity, counterpoising these with survey data on religious affiliation and direct reporting from occupied zones. It ends on the observation of a tour guide in a Russian town: no grand ambitions, just the sun coming up and tourists returning in summer.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine was meant to restore Russian great power status, but four years later has instead exhausted Russia's economy, made it dependent on China, prompted Europe's largest rearmament since the Cold War, and positioned Russia as a subsidiary resource supplier rather than an independent empire.
- Ukraine's drone campaign has destroyed roughly one-third of Russia's refining capacity, creating fuel shortages in an energy-exporting nation and forcing emergency imports
- Russia's sovereign wealth fund has depleted from 6.5% to 1.8% of GDP, budget deficits are blowing through annual targets in quarterly periods, and the state is engaging in financial engineering to keep the war machine running
- China now accounts for 35% of Russia's foreign trade and controls supply of critical dual-use technology, reducing Russia from ally to captive supplier at discount terms
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The state keeps military firms afloat by letting them simply not pay their bills; the government is sitting on a mountain of uncollected taxes and fees from the corporate sector—this is 'debt by any other name just filed under a friendlier heading,' like 'a landlord letting a failing shop skip rent indefinitely while the shop owner uses the money he didn't pay in rent to declare a record year.'
“And the state keeps these firms afloat by letting them simply not pay their bills. The government is sitting on a mountain of uncollected taxes and fees from the corporate sector. Debt by any other name just filed under a friendlier heading. It's a bit like a landlord letting a failing shop skip rent indefinitely and the shop owner using the money he didn't pay in rent to declare a record year.”
Tucker Carlson visited Moscow in 2024, toured a supermarket next to the foreign ministry where he priced groceries at $104 for a week (vs ~$400 in America), and left 'radicalized against American leadership'; this is grocery store diplomacy, historically not unique—Boris Yeltsin visited Houston in 1989, saw abundant pudding cups and no bread lines, and went home to help dismantle the Soviet Union.
“The YouTuber Tucker Carlson took a pilgrimage to Moscow in 2024 to interview Vladimir Putin. In the video, Carlson rode the subway, admired the decor at a train station, and visited an upscale grocery store where he priced out a week shopping at $104 against the roughly $400 he and his crew guessed it would cost back home. He came away, in his own words, radicalized against American leadership. This grocery store diplomacy is not historically a new thing. In 1989, Boris Yelson visited a supermarket in Houston and was so stunned by the shelves of pudding cups and the total absence of a bread line that he went home and helped dismantle the Soviet Union. 35 years later, an American walked into a Russian supermarket and had the exact opposite reaction.”
Russia's nuclear arsenal has been useless against every single thing that's actually going wrong for it—it cannot nuke a drone shortage, a refinery destruction, or economic collapse.
“Russia's nuclear arsenal, for its part, has been useless against every single thing that's actually going wrong for it. You can't nuke a drone shortage.”
Russia's economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 2026 despite the government sharply ramping up spending, and Moscow cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4%—representing near-zero growth from a government that spent four years describing sanctions as basically decorative.
“According to a June 2026 report from the Keel Institute, the Russian economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter despite the government sharply ramping up spending. Moscow has cut its own 2026 growth forecast to 0.4%. That is not a typo. 4/10en of 1% from a government that spent the last four years describing sanctions as basically decorative.”
A drone alert three regions away in Russia can cause mobile networks and cash machines to shut off, which also switches off card readers—so a drone alert far from you can leave you unable to buy a coffee, creating cascading collateral damage in civilian infrastructure.
“To blunt the drones, Russian regions now routinely shut off mobile networks and mobile internet, which also, as it happens, switches off the card readers and the cash machines. So, a drone alert three regions away can leave you unable to buy a coffee.”
German defense firm Diehl is now in talks to build the Flamingo cruise missile on German soil rather than wait years for a more expensive American equivalent that Washington hasn't yet agreed to sell.
“German defense firm deal is now in talks to build the thing on German soil rather than wait years for a more expensive American equivalent that Washington hasn't yet agreed to sell.”
Surveys show that religion plays an important role in the lives of about 15% of the Russian population, significantly lower than the equivalent US number, contradicting the argument that Russia represents traditional Christian values.
“Surveys show that religion plays an important role in the lives of about 15% of the Russian population. Significantly lower than the equivalent US number, not higher.”
For a growing number of large Russian firms, the annual interest bill is bigger than their entire annual EBITDA, meaning these businesses are losing money at the raw operating level before taxes or asset depreciation—they are no longer functioning companies but 'org charts standing on top of an invoice someone else is going to have to pay.'
“For a growing number of large Russian firms, the annual interest bill is bigger than their entire annual EBIDA, which means that the businesses are losing money at the raw operating level before you even get to the tax man or asset depreciation. At that point, company is a generous word for what you're looking at. It's an org chart standing on top of an invoice someone else is going to have to pay.”
Russia has held no military hardware in its Victory Day parade for the first time in nearly two decades, running only soldiers and a flyover, because rolling strategic hardware through an open square is unsafe when Ukraine has drones that can reach Moscow.
“This year, for the first time in nearly two decades, there was no military hardware in it. No tanks, no missile launchers, just soldiers and a flyover. Because rolling your strategic hardware slowly through an open square is unwise when the other side has drones that reach Moscow.”
Ukraine went from napkin sketch to combat-tested Flamingo cruise missiles in under nine months and now builds them for roughly half a million dollars each, about one-fifth the price of an American Tomahawk with double the range.
“Ukraine went from a napkin sketch to combat tested flamingo cruise missiles in under nine months and now builds them for roughly half a million dollars a piece which is about a fifth the price of an American Tomahawk with double the range.”
Modern defense manufacturing runs on very long production cycles, so increasing spending cannot immediately increase output; you cannot 'flip a switch and double your output of Patriot missiles by next quarter.'
“And modern defense manufacturing runs on very long production cycles. You can't just flip a switch and double your output of Patriot missiles by next quarter.”
Military spending in Russia is up while oil and gas revenue is down, and the shortfall is being covered by higher taxes, spending cuts on civilian sector, more borrowing, steady sale of reserve assets including national gold, and ballooning corporate debt driven by state-controlled banks ordered to flood military-related companies with cheap credit.
“Military spending is up and oil and gas revenue is down. And the shortfall has to come from somewhere. So, it's coming from everywhere. Higher taxes, spending cuts, more borrowing, and the steady sale of reserve assets, including the national gold. An energy superpower is selling its gold to cover the fuel bill. On top of that, corporate debt has ballooned since the war began, driven largely by state controlled banks being ordered to flood military related companies with cheap credit.”
In March 2026, despite Europe announcing its biggest rearmament since the Cold War, the NY Arca defense index fell nearly 8% while the S&P 500 fell about 5%, with the defense sector underperforming the broad market.
“Instead, in March 2026, the NY Arca defense index fell nearly 8% while the S&P 500 fell about 5%. The defense sector underperformed the broad market in the same month Europe announced the biggest rearmment since the Cold War.”
Certain foreign policy commentators believe the Ukraine-Russia conflict can be wrapped up with one neat executive deal based on the 'cornered Putin theory'—the idea that cornering Russia or a nuclear superpower might cause it to do something drastic.
“There's a persistent optimism among certain foreign policy commentators that this whole thing can be wrapped up with one need executive deal. The logic usually rests on a psychological framework known as the cornered Putin theory. Diplomats who like this theory lean on that rat, the one from Putin's hallway, the one we filed away earlier. The lesson we're told is that you must never corner Russia or the cornered rat, a nuclear superpower, might do something drastic.”
Russian GDP per capita sits somewhere around $13,000 to $15,000 while the US number is north of $80,000, making Russia on a per capita basis about one-fifth as wealthy as the United States and America's poorest regions significantly wealthier than Russia.
“Russia on a per capita basis is about a fifth as wealthy as the United States and that America's poorest regions are significantly wealthier than Russia. Russian GDP per capita sits somewhere around 13 to$15,000 while the US number is north of 80,000.”
NATO planning was built around the 1990s Gulf War model of overwhelming expensive conventional force, but in Ukraine, Russia's hundred million dollar weapon systems are being destroyed by disposable drones costing far less.
“NATO planning was built around the 1990s Gulf War model, overwhelming expensive conventional force. In Ukraine, Russia's hundred million dollar weapon systems are being turned into scrap by disposable drones flown by people holding a tablet in a treeine.”
A tour guide in Fedosa asked by the Economist what she wanted put it simply: 'No grand ambitions, no one trying to make things better, just the sun coming up in the morning and the tourists coming back in summer'—the spreadsheet and the beach have reached the same conclusion about Russia's future.
“A tour guide in Fedosa asked by the economist what she wanted put it slightly differently. No grand ambitions, no one trying to make things better, just the sun coming up in the morning and the tourists coming back in summer. The spreadsheet and the beach have reached the same conclusion.”
Certain Western commentators look at modern Russia and see a highly cohesive traditionalist paradise, managing to look past military draft, collapsing infrastructure, and rampant corruption to see a spiritually unified nation bravely standing up to Western decadence.
“It's not just Russian citizens who are expected to buy into the televised alternate reality. For the last few years, a strange pattern has emerged where certain Western commentators look at modern Russia and see a highly cohesive traditionalist paradise. They managed to look past the military draft, the collapsing infrastructure, and the rampant corruption and see instead a spiritually unified nation bravely standing up to Western decadence.”
Moscow has had to pull air defense systems off other sites and lower them by helicopter onto Moscow apartment roofs, indicating the state is unable to defend both its capital and its oil refineries simultaneously, forcing impossible choices about resource allocation.
“And because there aren't enough air defense systems to cover everything at once, Moscow has to choose what to protect. It's been photographed lowering pancer missile systems by helicopter onto the roofs of Moscow apartment blocks, pulling cover off other sites to do it.”
Western appliance brands like Electrolux and Indiset have all but disappeared from Russian shelves, replaced entirely by Chinese-made equivalents, with China taking the consumer goods market rather than using middleman arrangements.
“With ordinary consumer goods, China isn't bothering with the middleman act. It's just taking the market. Western appliance brands like Electrolux and Indiset have all but disappeared from Russian shelves, replaced almost entirely by Chinese-made equivalents.”
In early July 2026, Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak announced an immediate ban on diesel exports running through July 31st and that Russia would start importing refined fuel from abroad, including emergency gasoline shipments from India.
“Despite the Kremlin's public insistence that everything in Russia is running with a substantial margin of resilience, Novak had to announce an immediate ban on diesel exports running through July 31st... Novak went on to say that Russia would start importing refined fuel from abroad, including emergency gasoline shipments from India.”
Russia's national wealth fund liquid assets have depleted from 6.5% of GDP at the start of invasion to 1.8% as of April 2026, meaning the rainy day buffer is mostly gone.
“Russia went into this war with a serious rainy day account. For years, the Kremlin had been funneling excess oil and gas revenue into its national wealth fund, a buffer built for exactly this kind of shock. At the start of the invasion, that fund's liquid assets sat at 6 and a half% of GDP. As of this April, they're down to 1.8%. The cushion is mostly gone.”
Crimea, annexed in 2014, experienced weeks of drone strikes on power substations, oil terminals, and ferries, leading Russian authorities to declare a state of emergency indefinitely, halt civilian petrol sales, and plunge cities into darkness.
“After weeks of drone strikes on power substations, oil terminals, and the feries that supply the peninsula, Russian installed authorities declared a state of emergency indefinitely. Civilian petrol sales were halted outright and cities went dark.”
China now accounts for roughly 35% of Russia's total foreign trade, up from 16% before the war, making Russia a captive supplier with vast quantities of raw materials but only one buyer able to take them at scale.
“China now accounts for roughly 35% of Russia's total foreign trade, up from 16% before the war. With European markets closed, Russia has become a captive supplier. Vast quantities of raw materials and one buyer able to take them at scale.”
In the first 3 months of 2026 alone, Russia's budget deficit hit 4.6 trillion rubles, exceeding the official target for the entire year of 3.8 trillion, meaning Russia blew through its 12-month credit limit in 90 days.
“In the first 3 months of 2026 alone, Russia's budget deficit hit 4.6 trillion rubles. The official target for the entire year was 3.8 trillion. So, they blew through their 12-month credit limit in 90 days.”
Putin flew to Beijing in May specifically hoping to close the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal but came home with more than 40 signed documents on trade and nuclear security and nothing on the pipeline, with China content to let Russia sit while squeezing the terms.
“You can watch that leverage play out in real time with the power of Siberia 2 pipeline. The project meant to redirect gas that used to flow to Europe straight into China. Putin flew to Beijing in May specifically hoping to close the deal. He came home with more than 40 signed documents on everything from trade to nuclear security and nothing at all on the pipeline. China is perfectly happy to let Russia sit there while it keeps squeezing the terms.”
Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Mertz committed to borrowing more than 800 billion euros by 2030 to rebuild military and infrastructure, with a target of defense spending at 3.5% of GDP by 2029, up from 1.5% as recently as 2023.
“Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Mertz took a match to decades of fiscal discipline and committed to borrowing more than 800 billion euros by 2030 to rebuild the military and the country's infrastructure. The target is defense spending of 3.5% of GDP by 2029 from a country that was spending about 1.5% as recently as 2023.”
Ukraine has taken out somewhere around one-third of Russia's oil refining capacity using drones that can fly 1,400 km into Russian territory, with Kiev's own general staff claiming the number is closer to 43% and independent energy analysts landing nearer to a third.
“Ukraine has moved the center of gravity of the war away from the trenches of the Dawnbass and into Russia's refineries. Using drones that can fly 1,400 km into Russian territory, Ukraine has taken out somewhere around a third of the country's oil refining capacity. Kiev's own general staff claims the number is closer to 43%. Independent energy analysts land nearer to a third, but either way, it's enough to get you rationed at your own gas stations in a country that exports oil for a living.”
The majority of chips entering Russia still come from Western brands like Intel and AMD, but the paperwork now routes the vast majority of them through China first, where Beijing charges a toll on Western technology rather than replacing it.
“Take microprocessors. In 2021, most of the chips entering Russia were made by American companies like Intel and AMD. Today, those same Western brands still make up the overwhelming majority of Russia's chip imports. The only thing that's changed is the paperwork, which now routes the vast majority of them through China first. Beijing isn't replacing Western technology. It's charging a toll on it.”
The NY Arca defense index climbed more than 150% between 2020 and 2025, meaning the conflict premium was already baked into valuations before Europe announced rearmament.
“A lot of conflict premium was already baked into the valuations. The index had climbed more than 150% between 2020 and 2025. So the stocks were priced for a war before anyone announced one.”
A $100,000 drone that destroys a $50 million jet on the ground is not a fair fight and it is not meant to be, raising the question whether Europe actually needs fleets of expensive American fighter jets or if that spending is more about sending tribute to Washington to keep the security relationship sweet.
“A $100,000 drone that destroys a $50 million jet on the ground is not a fair fight, and it isn't meant to be. So, does Europe actually need fleets of expensive American fighter jets? Or is a good part of that spending less about deterrence than about sending a tribute to Washington to keep the security relationship sweet?”
Russia advances at about 70 meters a day in Ukraine, which is slower than the Saudi Arabian military's advance rate.
“The country that was supposed to be capable of reaching the English Channel in a matter of weeks has spent four years failing to capture towns a 2-hour drive from its own border, advancing by one CSIS measure at about 70 m a day, which is slower than the SAM.”
The people falling for Tucker Carlson's supermarket tour of Moscow are making the same mistake as the people reading Russia's official GDP figures: they are looking at the display case and ignoring the foundations underneath it.
“the people falling for the Patank supermarket tour are making the same mistake as the people reading Russia's official GDP figures. They're looking at the display case and ignoring the foundations underneath it.”
CSIS reports Russian battlefield casualties (dead, wounded, and missing) at approximately 1.44 million people between February 2022 and June 2026, including up to 450,000 deaths, meaning Russia has lost more soldiers in Ukraine than the United States has lost in every war combined since 1945, four times over.
“The numbers behind it are the kind that don't really compute. CSIS puts Russian battlefield casualties dead, wounded, and missing at approximately 1.4 4 million people between February 2022 and June 2026, including up to 450,000 deaths. Russia has lost more soldiers in Ukraine than the United States has lost in every war combined since 1945, four times over.”
Instead of trying to match Russia tank-for-tank, Europe plans a 'porcupine defense' that makes territory decentralized, prickly, and expensive to invade so that nobody bothers trying to swallow it.
“As a senior British official put it to the Financial Times, instead of trying to match Russia tank for tank, Europe will have to thwart, create dilemas, and put up a kind of porcupine defense. The idea isn't to meet Russia headon. It's to make territory so decentralized, prickly, and expensive to invade that nobody bothers trying to swallow it.”
Ukraine's reluctance to sign a peace deal is not because Ukrainians are uninterested in peace but because deals with Moscow tend not to survive contact with the next Russian offensive, as demonstrated by the Budapest Memorandum (1994) followed by Crimea annexation (2014) followed by full invasion (2022).
“Once you work out who's actually cornered, Ukraine's reluctance to sign a peace deal makes more sense. It's not that Ukrainians are uninterested in peace. It's that they've learned deals with Moscow tend not to survive contact with the next Russian offensive. In 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum, handing over the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world in exchange for explicit security guarantees from the United States, the UK, and Russia. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and started a war in the Dawnbas. There was a ceasefire, an 8-year pause to rearm, and then the rest of the invasion came in 2022.”
NATO is simultaneously in the best and worst shape of its life—expanding, rearming, and better funded than ever, while being hollowed out by the prospect of America walking away.
“NATO is simultaneously in the best and worst shape of its life, expanding, rearming, and better funded than ever. And at the same time, hollowed out by the prospect of America walking away.”
You can keep a wartime economy looking healthy for a surprisingly long time by cannibalizing the civilian sector to make tanks and shells, but when rainy day funds hit zero and the last remaining major customer is bleeding your margins, you are not an independent empire—you are a subsidiary.
“You can keep a wartime economy looking healthy for a surprisingly long time by cannibalizing the civilian sector to make tanks and shells, but when the rainy day funds hit zero and your last remaining major customer is bleeding your margins, you're not an independent empire, you're a subsidiary.”
Using Occam's Razor, given Russian municipal plumbing problems, absence of pest control, and Putin's childhood experience chasing large aggressive rats indoors, there's a non-zero chance the terrifying entity attacking Carlson in bed was in fact a rat.
“Between Russian municipal plumbing, the general absence of pest control, and a head of state with firsthand experience of large aggressive rats indoors, there's a nonzero chance that the terrifying entity that Claude Tucker Carlson was in fact a rat, a Okam's razor.”
The irony is that the US defense establishment spent decades lecturing Europe about spending more on its own military, and Europe has now started deliberately designing a force that runs without American weapons and is built in factories that aren't in America.
“The irony here is hard to miss. The US defense establishment spent decades lecturing Europe about spending more on its own military. Europe has finally started and is deliberately designing a force that runs without American weapons. built-in factories that aren't in America.”
European officials have begun openly discussing American 'kill switches'—the possibility that a US administration could restrict software updates or spare parts over foreign policy disagreement and turn an ally's air force into a collection of parked aircraft.
“European officials have begun talking openly about American kill switches. the possibility that a US administration, perhaps one currently threatening to annex Greenland from a NATO ally, could restrict software updates or spare parts over a foreign policy disagreement and turn your air force into a very expensive collection of parked aircraft.”
From Kiev's perspective, a settlement with Moscow is not a peace treaty but a 'half time'—a pause before the next Russian offensive.
“From Kiev's perspective, a settlement with Moscow isn't a peace treaty, it's a half time.”
Moscow is burning through men and money to fight a war of attrition and in the process is mortgaging its economy to Beijing, which is giving Russia not a no-limits friendship but a very patient landlord arrangement.
“Moscow is burning through men and money to fight a war of attrition and in the process it's mortgaged its economy to Beijing. China hasn't offered Russia a no limits friendship. It's giving them a very patient landlord.”
Russia spends enormous sums on its military and still could not take Ukraine; Europe collectively already outspends Russia on defense, is wealthier, more populous, and further up the technology ladder, yet Russia is presented as a threat that should cause panic.
“There's a second quieter point buried underneath all the alarm about the Russian threat. Russia spends enormous sums on its military, and it still couldn't take Ukraine. Europe collectively already outspends Russia on defense and it's wealthier, more populace and further up the technology ladder. The country that was supposed to be capable of reaching the English Channel in a matter of weeks has spent four years failing to capture towns a 2-hour drive from its own border, advancing by one CSIS measure at about 70 m a day, which is slower than the SAM.”
In Putin's own autobiography story, the rat did not negotiate and Putin did not win—the rat attacked and Putin ran away, yet diplomats citing this story seem to have forgotten how it ends.
“The people citing it seem to have forgotten how it ends. In the story, the rat didn't negotiate and Putin didn't win. The rat attacked and Putin ran away.”
Kremlin officials declared that Zelinski's decree banning Ukrainian strikes on Red Square during the Victory Day parade as a formal exchange was a 'silly joke,' which was true though possibly not in the way they meant.
“The Kremlin called the decree a silly joke, which it was, though possibly not in the way that they meant.”
Air raid sirens in Crimea were switched off not because Crimea is safe but because a senior local official explained that if they left the sirens on, they'd be sounding 22 hours a day, with residents suspecting the real reason is concerns about the tourist season.
“The air raid sirens, meanwhile, have been switched off, not because Crimea is safe. A senior local official explained that if they left the sirens on, they'd be sounding 22 hours a day and nobody would get any sleep. Residents suspect that the real reason is simpler. A whailing siren is bad for the tourist season.”
By launching a full-scale invasion, Putin did the cornering—he backed Ukraine into a corner and waited for it to fold, but instead it turned around and lunged, leaving Putin backed against the wall running a war of attrition that is dismantling his own economy.
“And Putin of all people should have remembered that by launching a full-scale invasion. He did the cornering. He backed Ukraine into a corner and waited for it to fold. Instead, it turned around and lunged. And four years later, it's Putin backed against the wall, running a war of attrition that's steadily dismantling his own economy with no way out he'd care to explain on television.”
Russian billionaire Andre Melanchenko sketched five scenarios for Russia's future in an essay for the Economist, and the triumphant return to superpower status was not among them—the scenarios range from state collapse to absorption into China's orbit as a supplier of raw materials and strategic buffer.
“The Russian billionaire Andre Melanchenko, currently eighth on Russia's Forbes list, recently laid out the actual options in an essay for the Economist, and the triumphant return to superpower status wasn't among them. He sketched five scenarios, most of them bleak. State collapsed, a besieged North Korea style fortress economy, a slide back to the periphery of the West as a poor relation or absorption into China's orbit as a supplier of raw materials and a strategic buffer.”
The Keel Institute characterizes Russia's situation as 'structural exhaustion,' which means the economy is running on fumes.
“The Keel Institute's term for what's going on is structural exhaustion, which is a nice way of saying that the economy is running on fumes.”
Tucker Carlson claimed in late 2024 documentary that in 2023 he was physically attacked in his bed by a demon, waking with four bleeding claw marks across his ribs and shoulders left by something unseen.
“Sometime in 2023, by his own account, he was physically attacked in his bed by a demon... Something that he didn't make public until a documentary interview released in late 2024 in which he said that he woke with four bleeding claw marks across his ribs and shoulders left, in his words, by something unseen.”
Even if Putin wanted a diplomatic exit tomorrow, Europe has almost nothing to put on the table—it cannot hand over Ukrainian territory and the strongest inducement it can offer is the promise of somewhat lighter sanctions later on, which is not a triumph to bring home after four years, several hundred thousand casualties, and an emptied national wealth fund.
“Even if Putin wanted a diplomatic exit tomorrow, Europe has almost nothing to put on the table, it can't hand over Ukrainian territory, and The Economist notes that the strongest inducement it can realistically offer is the promise of somewhat lighter sanctions later on. That is not a triumph you bring home to a domestic audience after four years, several hundred,000 casualties, and an emptied national wealth fund.”
American bread is horrible, which is why judging countries by supermarket observations is flawed methodology; even if Carlson had visited Paris, he'd still be wearing a beret and string of onions.
“Now, it's not that unusual for Americans abroad to notice that the bread is better. And this is mostly because American bread is horrible. Had Carlson gone to Paris instead he'd still be wearing a beret and a string of onions around his neck to this day.”