Forget China, Trump’s Real Plan? Destroy the Eurodollar, Bankrupt Europe | Tom Luongo

In unprecedented volatility periods, investors with gains should sell winners when reaching 300% profit or target levels, lighten positions, move to cash, buy short-term T-bills, and wait out volatility rather than holding through uncertainty.

“If you're not sure what to do and you have winners, you got gold winners, you should probably lighten your gold position and go to cash. And if you have stuck it out with, you know, and again, you should always sell your winners when you have reached a certain level of profit. I don't care what it is, you know, never ask yourself the question, could it go higher? Go, are you happy having made 300%. you [53:03] should be and then you take the you take that money a lot of that money off the table and you go to cash.”

Markets move in both directions; all moves (up or down) end at some point with emotional climax; when you reach emotional climax (panic sell or euphoric buy), contrarian opportunity emerges—buy when terrified, sell when euphoric.

“all moves in every direction both up and down end. And when you get to an emotional climax on either side of the trade, you have to be a contrarian. That means you have to have the courage to buy when everybody else is selling and you have to have the courage to sell when everybody else is buying.”

The US dollar is not going into the dustbin of history but is on the verge of being strengthened in a way unseen since the Plaza Accord or the Reagan administration; the dollar bull market has only begun to permeate public consciousness.

“The dollar is not going into the dust bin of history, folks. The dollar is on the verge of being strengthened in a way and the Treasury market in a way that we have never seen in our lifetimes since probably the Plaza Accord or since the Reagan administration. And I don't, you know, and it's only just really begun to, you know, permeate, you know, all the noise in my head.”

During the March 2023 banking crisis (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank), SOFR moved but the market absorbed the stress; Jerome Powell raised interest rates in the middle of the crisis, demonstrating central banker confidence.

“Fast forward to 20 March of 2023. I watched the silver market during Silicon Valley Bank, during Signature Bank, during all that banking crisis. I saw some movement. I saw some attacks, but nothing that the market couldn't absorb. As a matter of fact, the market absorbed it so well. Jerome Powell raised interest rates in the middle of it. If that wasn't a flex from a central banker, I don't know that you could ever get a bigger flex from a central banker than raising rates during a banking crisis.”

Gold is reacting to geopolitical events and serves as a hedge against false flags and monetary system changes; in the short term, gold reacts to immediate threats, but the long-term bull market (from ~$1,800 to $3,400+) reflects structural monetary collapse and collateral scrambling.

“gold in the short term is is uh reacting to geopolitical events. I I agree with Martin Armstrong on that completely that gold is a hedge against, you know, the potential for a false flag and the changing of the monetary system. Look, everybody's in a in a collateral scramble right now. So, gold is the ultimate form of collateral.”

Gold is simultaneously responding to two forces: (1) short-term hedge against geopolitical false flag operations and monetary system change, (2) long-term collateral scarcity in a world transitioning from competitive currency devaluation to direct power competition.

“gold in the short term is is uh reacting to geopolitical events... but two, gold in the short term is is uh reacting to geopolitical events. I I agree with Martin Armstrong on that completely that gold is a hedge against, you know, the potential for a false flag and the changing of the monetary system. Look, everybody's in a in a collateral scramble right now. So, gold is the ultimate form of collateral.”

The dollar is not going into the 'dust bin of history' as widely claimed; instead, the dollar is on the verge of being strengthened in a way and magnitude not seen since the Plaza Accord (1985) or Reagan administration (1980s), driven by Trump's monetary system rebuilding.

“The dollar is not going into the dust bin of history, folks. The dollar is on the verge of being strengthened in a way and the Treasury market in a way that we have never seen in our lifetimes since probably the Plaza Accord or since the Reagan [43:49] administration.”

Trump will use blockchain and Tether stablecoins to tokenize US treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, bypassing City of London and forex markets, and banking 400 million emerging-market users who already use Tether as daily currency, while backing these assets with short-term T-bills.

“Because we're going to send the US treasuries through Tether to the entire freaking world and we're going to bypass City of London. We're going to bypass the forex markets. We're going to create a whole new paradigm.' [24:34] Paladino over Tether is literally this week saying, 'Oh, by the way, we're going to tokenize gold and we're going to put it on the Tether blockchain.'”

The April 2025 market attack was not caused by Chinese treasury dumping, Japanese hedge fund blowup, or basis trade explosion as claimed in media; it was a coordinated European attack on SOFR via the long-treasury/short-SOFR strip 6-month-3-year, the 'tail that wags the dog,' to delegitimize SOFR as the pricing mechanism for global dollars.

“None of that is true. Simple long treasury short the sofur strip 6 months out to three years. That's what was blowing out because that market is the ultimate tail that wags [36:07] the dog.”

Halford Mackinder's 1904 paper 'The Geographical Pivot of History' outlined geopolitical thinking in geographic terms, and European powers use geographic access to resources to undergird the collateral chains of the global financial system.

“not only Mckinder and the geographical pivot of history the art the the paper that Halford Mckinder wrote in 1904 that's one part of it but it's a good part it tells you that they think in geographic terms, but it's really to get now the strategic access to the resources necessary to um to undergard the collateral chains of the global financial system”

The common denominator across all of Trump's actions—tariffs, trade war with China, Ukraine peace push, Iran diplomacy—is a single objective: kill the eurodollar system, which undergirds European financial power and allows Europe to maintain a colonialist empire by controlling offshore dollar pricing.

“if you distill all of the noise out, if you distill out that weekly cadence of moving from place to place to issue to issue to issue to issue, what's the what's the common denominator? Kill the Euro dollar. Kill the Euro dollar.”

When you strip away all the noise and weekly issue-switching by Trump, the common denominator across tariffs, trade war with China, Ukraine peace talks, and energy policy is a single objective: kill the eurodollar system.

“what's the what's the common denominator? Kill the Euro dollar. Kill the Euro dollar.”

Europe's 1000-year history has been about colonizing North America and destroying Russia; if Europe can accomplish both, it maintains power and can form an antidote to China.

“Europe's history is a thousand years old of them doing this doing this right well and the last most you know recent say 300 years have been about colonizing the United colonizing North America and um destroying Russia and if they can do that then the the power center stays in Europe and then they can form an anthropode to China”

If Trump turns off access to US satellites that Ukraine depends on for drone operations, the Ukraine war ends immediately; Europe cannot sustain the war without US satellite support, and Trump holds absolute leverage.

“Trump turns off the satellites, the Ukraine war is over. And Ukraine doesn't just lose the four Oblasts. Zaparisia, um, Donets, Lugansk, and what was the other one? Her son. No, I can't remember the other one. Take the whole freaking thing”

The ECB's balance sheet is now €20 trillion with 95% of assets carrying rate risk; Europe will face 9% interest rates in Germany and default-like conditions once the ECB runs out of balance sheet room to intervene.

“You're going to be looking at 9% interest rates in Germany once the ECB runs out of balance sheet room. And everybody looks at the ECB's balance sheet and goes, 'So it's now 20 trillion euros and [25:37] um 95% of it is in is rate is has got rate risk associated with it.'”

Trump is courting Italy away from the EU with military reinvestment at levels not seen since the 1950s, supporting Erdogan in Turkey to control the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, and working with Putin to lift Russia sanctions and coordinate energy policy, isolating Europe.

“Donald Trump is smoozing Italy to get them off the board. Reinvest reinvesting militarily in Greece in a way that we've ne that we haven't seen since 1950s. blessing Erdigan and Turkey taking over Syria to control the Bosphorus and the Dardells and wants to cut a peace deal [26:09] with Russia that lifts all the damn sanctions and coordinates energy policy between Russia and the United States.”

The cartel controlling gold (LBMA) has been broken by US forces seeking to repatriate gold and allow the price to rise; the old system of competitive devaluations (race to the bottom) is over.

“the LBMA is clearly under under siege here um by US forces to repatriate and uh allow the price of gold to rise. That's one. Um but two, gold in the short term is is uh reacting to geopolitical events... The old system based on, you know, competitive devaluations and a and a race to the bottom are over.”

The old system of competitive currency devaluations and races to the bottom is over; Trump has announced a shift to 'bench clearing brawls' (direct power competition with fixed rules) followed by hockey shift changes, implying periodic negotiation and reset rather than continuous devaluation competition.

“we're not doing [49:27] that anymore. We're not racing to the bottom anymore, folks. We're going back to our we're going back to we're going to fight it out in a bench clearing brawl and then we're going to go back to our benches and then it's going to be the next shift and we're going to try to score goals.”

The Fed did not need to intervene during the April 2025 SOFR market turmoil; the market stabilized after Trump announced rescission of reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries at 1:30 PM, which was Trump 'drawing enemies out' and setting up a narrative counter for the next attack.

“The point here is the system didn't break. The Fed didn't have to step in and do anything. All that had to [37:38] happen was for Donald Trump to walk out at around 1:30 that afternoon and go, 'Yeah, I'm I'm rescinding the reciprocal tariffs on everybody who's called us,'”

The gold price at $3,400/ounce is signaling that the cartel controlling gold prices (LBMA) has been broken; Europe is attacking the London Bullion Market Association as part of US forces supporting gold price repatriation upward.

“I think the I think there's part of that like the LBMA is clearly under under siege here um by US forces to repatriate [48:56] and uh allow the price of gold to rise.”

The demonetization of gold in 1971 occurred because there were more eurodollars in circulation than dollars, and the US was cheating the Bretton Woods $35/ounce standard, causing France (de Gaulle) to trigger a bank run by exchanging dollars for gold, forcing Nixon to close the gold window.

“the Euro dollar system itself, how those Euro dollars were priced was never under the United States's control. The United States did not control its monetary policy once the Euro dollar system was more powerful and larger than the domestic dollar markets. And that's ultimately what led to the demonetization of gold. Okay, because now there were more euro dollars than there were dollars.”

The United States has never defaulted on its debt, which is why people want the dollar as the cheapest and most stable trade currency in the world and unit of account.

“Because the United States has never defaulted on its debt. And it's the cheapest and most stable trade currency in the world. It's the unit of account.”

Trump, Putin, and Xi are natural fellow travelers in attacking the eurodollar system at its root and branch because all three benefit from dismantling European-controlled collateral chains and redistributing geopolitical power away from the City of London.

“Trump's attacking all of those like root and branch and so is Putin and so is Xi and so there's a natural um I say alliance but there's a natural you know I being natural. They're all fellow travelers at a certain level on this particular front, right?”

When emergency market moves happen (extreme volatility in normally stable assets), the pattern of timing (London open, NY open, NY close, European close) reveals which jurisdiction's central bank or financial institutions executed the move, making it possible to identify attackers through timestamps alone.

“You could see at the times that it it happened, it happened here on the London open or it happened on the New York close or it happened on the European close. It was always the it was I once I dug into the the the the sofur data trading data about a week later and looked at it all I'm like oh my god it's like st you know after a while I was like ah it's staring you right in the face you know and I only learned those skills from watching the you in times past manipulating the gold and silver markets right because they would used to do the same thing in the gold and silver markets”

The United States was never truly in control of its domestic, foreign, or monetary policy; these were gradually ceded starting with Woodrow Wilson in 1912 through a system that allowed City of London to control eurodollar pricing and hollow out US domestic manufacturing and capital.

“we were never really in control of our domestic policy. We're never really in control of our foreign policy. We were never really in control of our monetary policy. We abandoned all those things whether willingly or unwillingly starting with Woodro Wilson in 1912.”

The US is the only empire that rebuilt the world with its store of capital rather than running a colonialist empire and bringing resources home; instead it sent dollars out and received cheap Chinese goods in return, squandering its accumulated capital rather than using its industrial might to colonize.

“We're the only empire that rebuilt the world with our store of capital. We're the only empire that sent all of our blood and treasure overseas as opposed to running a colonialist empire and bringing it all home. We sent dollars out, we got cheap Chinese goods in return as opposed to taking the industrial might that we had and using it to truly colonize the rest of the world.”

The April 2025 attack was specifically on the SOFR strip 6 months to 3 years out (long Treasury short SOFR basis trade), not on other factors like Chinese treasury dumping, Japanese pension fund hedge blowups, or Treasury basis trades—contrary to media narratives.

“Simple long treasury short the sofur strip 6 months out to three years. That's what was blowing out because that market is the ultimate tail that wags the dog... Blah blah blah blah blah. None of that is true. Simple long treasury short the sofur strip 6 months out to three years.”

Mckinderism and Halford Mackinder's 1904 'Geographical Pivot of History' framework shows European geopolitical thinking is fundamentally structured around geographic control, but the real competition is over strategic access to resources necessary for collateral chains.

“it all goes back to you know not only Mckinder and the geographical pivot of history the art the the paper that Halford Mckinder wrote in 1904 that's one part of it but it's a good part it tells you that they think in geographic terms, but it's really to get now the strategic access to the resources necessary to um to undergard the collateral chains of the global financial system”

The techniques used to manipulate gold and silver markets in the past (selling on New York open, buying on New York close, reloading to attack on European open) are now reversed with gold and silver being bought on New York open and sold on London open, indicating market structure changes.

“when Craig was when first started TF Metals, I was a I was a I was a soldier over there...we would just go over the markets and and so that's that was me 15 years ago, right? And um but those skills translate now you start watching it and now gold and silver are being bought on the New York Open and sold on the London Open.”

Vladimir Zelenskyy will be given a choice: accept a payout and a condo in Miami, or stop breathing; he will be removed from the equation within a month as Trump settles the Ukraine war.

“Vladimir Zalinski is not going to be in our our our vocabulary within a month. Okay. He's going to be given a very simple choice. take the take the payout, the gold watch in the condo in Miami or stop breathing because it's that's what's on the table for this guy.”

Trump and Powell are in conflict, but their April 2025 dispute was kayfabe (professional wrestling scripting) designed to give Powell political cover to avoid rate cuts while preserving Federal Reserve independence—Elizabeth Warren's public criticism of Trump provided the cover.

“The whole pal Trump versus Powell thing that he ran last week clearly was [50:29] kayfabe um in order to get Powell to not cut give Powell the the the cover to not cut and to preserve Fed independence.”

On April 6-9, 2025, SOFR experienced intraday two-hour bars moving 25-40 basis points, which is unprecedented; normal SOFR volatility is 3-4 basis points per day, making this attack 8-13x normal volatility.

“on April 9th, there were twohour bars where the sofa market moved 40 basis points. Just trying to find the 40 basis points. Dude, if it moves more than three basis points in a day, yes, that's the that's the page. You're you're you're that's a that's like high volatility. Sofur is not supposed to move more than three or four basis points a day. to watch it watch bars trace 25 30 40 basis points at the height of the of the of the thing of the was insane.”

The US and Russia have more common interest and should be coordinating to divide access to capital and regional control in the northern hemisphere, as a matter of power politics, rather than being enemies; Europe is the force that wants US and Russia at each other's throats.

“they actually have more, we actually have more in common and more interest with Russia than we do any than we do anybody else because clearly it's Europe that wants us to be at each other's throats. And the Russians and the Americans should be getting together and coordinating and div basically diving up the the northern hemisphere and [9:55] deciding who gets access to capital and who doesn't.”

The United States abandoned control of its domestic, foreign, and monetary policy starting with Woodrow Wilson in 1912, regardless of whether willingly or unwillingly; therefore the US was never really an empire in control of its own destiny—it spent blood and treasure rebuilding the world instead of running a colonialist empire.

“But we were never really in control of our domestic policy. We're never really in control of our foreign policy. We were never really in control of our monetary policy. We abandoned all those things whether willingly or unwillingly starting with Woodro Wilson in 1912.”

Trump, Putin, and Xi are natural fellow travelers attacking the collateral chains that undergird the eurodollar system, and the US should align with Russia against Europe, not view Russia as an enemy.

“there's a natural um I say alliance but there's a natural you know I being natural. They're all fellow travelers at a certain level on this particular front, right? And that's why I'm not really worried about US and China trade war. It's why it's clear that Trump and Putin want reproachment between US and Russia. Not just because they're the two largest nuclear powers in the world”

On April 9th, Tom observed that US treasuries and UK gilts fell 20 basis points while EUR, CAD, and GBP rose 3-5 cents, with German bunds flat and yen/yuan flat, which is an impossible pattern unless European central banks are coordinating to dump dollars.

“I see US treasuries are off 20 basis points. UK guilts are off 20 basis points. The German Bund is flat. The euro is up 4 cents. The Canadian dollar is up 5 cents. The British pound's up three cents. And the yen is flat and the yuan is flat. Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. If that means that Europe is dumping in order to that meant Europe is dumping and they're trying to blame everybody else for it”

To read through media BS and identify truth: assume mainstream media (Financial Times, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal) is lying by default, and require they prove their story is true rather than assuming innocence; media analysis requires watching specific financial markets (10-year yields, SOFR, currency pairs, gold, oil, copper) as leading indicators of actual events.

“You see just assume they're lying to you. You assume that that's never this the story at the Financial Times or the Telegraph or the Wall Street Journal or whatever. It's all little crap. It's just all assume they're lying and then make them prove that they're telling you the truth.”

The line in the sand for Trump is when the Federal Reserve must intervene in markets; Powell will not intervene unless the credit market seizes, preserving Fed independence; Trump and Powell are coordinated through 'kayfabe' (theater) to preserve credibility while working toward the same goal.

“The line in the sand will always be the Federal the limit at which the Federal Reserve um is ready to intervene in the markets. Okay, Trump and Powell are going to be at odds because Powell is not going to intervene unless the bottom market seizes up. And so, and that's fine. That's that's his job. The whole pal Trump versus Powell thing that he ran last week clearly was kayfabe um in order to get Powell to not cut give Powell the the the cover to not cut and to preserve Fed independence.”

Europe attempted to delegitimize SOFR as the pricing mechanism for US dollars globally by attacking the SOFR futures curve, trying to replicate LIBOR's vulnerability to manipulation.

“if you're London and you're Brussels and you're Frankfurt and you're probably Zurich as well. What you're are trying to do is you're trying to delegitimize sofur as the pricing mechanism for US dollars globally.”

The historical pattern of gold/silver market manipulation by the Bank of England and other entities involved selling on the New York open and buying on the New York close to manipulate momentum, then reloading and attacking on the European open, a pattern that has inverted—now gold is bought on the NY open and sold on the London open.

“so once you saw that during the gold bull market where they would sell the the New York open and buy the New York close and then use that to reload and then you know to attack on the European open or whatever like they they had this whole shell game that they played over and over and over again. We watched it and we watched it happen like clockwork... today like and you know and so once you saw that during the gold bull market... but those skills translate now you start watching it and now gold and silver are being bought on the New York Open and sold on the London Open.”

Trump's apparent chaotic policy moves—tariffs, Ukraine negotiations, Iran diplomacy—follow a deliberate weekly cadence where he shifts between issues to control the narrative and opponent response time: opponents craft weekend talking points for Monday announcement, but Trump pivots by Wednesday, forcing them to react to new issues by Friday, giving him strategic initiative.

“he changed the game the nature of the rules of the game of domestic politics um constantly um uh using the media's and the the Democrats and Davos's typical we take the weekend to craft the talking point that he left us on Friday to counter him on Monday, publish everything on Emily's list, then go out into the world and create havoc in in the markets and in the media on Monday and Tuesday. By that point, Trump's already figured out what they were going to do because they always just do the opposite of whatever he told him that uh that he was going to do the week before.”

Tether has 400 million people using it as a day-to-day currency, and now offers tokenized gold backed by short-term Treasury bills, allowing third-world populations to hedge foreign exchange risk and protect wealth outside traditional banking.

“They have 400 million people using the damn using Tether as a day-to-day currency. And now they've got tokenized gold for people to protect their protect their wealth if there's, you know, to hedge their FX risk. And all of this is backed by short-term T bills.”

The ECB's balance sheet is now 20 trillion euros with 95% having rate risk associated with it; Europe will face 9% interest rates in Germany once the ECB runs out of balance sheet room, not the US.

“the ECB's balance sheet and goes, 'So it's now 20 trillion euros and um 95% of it is in is rate is has got rate risk associated with it.' Yeah, we're not investing in Europe and it's it's a clown show. The whole thing's a hyperinflant collapse”

The system did not break during the April 2025 attack and the Federal Reserve did not have to intervene; Trump's announcement rescinding reciprocal tariffs at 1:30 PM that day stopped the attack by removing the pretext and drawing out opponents' strategy.

“The Fed didn't have to step in and do anything. All that had to happen was for Donald Trump to walk out at around 1:30 that afternoon and go, 'Yeah, I'm I'm rescending the reciprocal tariffs on everybody who's called us,' which is like 75 countries.”

The United States, as a European settlement project built by people escaping European control, should not accept domination by European oligarchs; Trump as a 'mob boss from Queens' will not 'roll over and die' to European interests and will fight to recover U.S. sovereignty.

“We're the Europeans who left to get away from your and build something new in the last frontier on the freaking planet. And we did so and you want it back. No. And if you think that Donald Trump, a mob boss from Queens, is going to play that game, is going to roll over and die to a bunch of inbredad feckless European oligarchs. You're out of your mind.”

Trump operates on a weekly tactical cadence where he leads the agenda Monday-Tuesday, his opponents coordinate over the weekend and counter Wednesday-Thursday with market attacks (equity or bond bombing), and he pivots to new issues by Friday, forcing them to perpetually react rather than set strategy.

“He changed the game the nature of the rules of the game of domestic politics um constantly um uh using the media's and the the Democrats [4:45] and Davos's typical we take the weekend to craft the talking point that he left us on Friday to counter him on Monday, publish everything on Emily's list, then go out into the world and create havoc in in the markets and in the media on Monday and Tuesday.”

Trump's strategy requires him to defeat European forces trying to destabilize financial markets (equity and bond crashes) without Fed intervention; the Fed will only intervene if actual market seizure occurs.

“And so, and that's fine. That's that's his job. The whole pal Trump versus Powell thing that he ran last week clearly was kayfabe um in order to get Powell to not cut give Powell the the the cover to not cut and to preserve Fed independence.”

The new world order is not about morality or libertarian principles but power politics; during wartime (which this period is), survival requires backing winners, not maintaining ideological purity that leads to the 'gas chamber.'

“It's not about morality whether you think it's right, wrong or indifferent. I don't give a about that. I haven't given a about that for a very long time. And I put I took my libert libertarian feifies and I stuck them in a box. I'm like I'll bring them back out when the when this period of history is over because you know we're fighting war here. And so at that point it's not about morality. I don't care about that. Now it's about this is, you know, mob bosses fighting it out and you know, do you want to, you know, do you want to be with the winners or the losers?”

Turn off the internet and TV for a while and go for a walk; anxiety generation is a deliberate tool being used to keep populations in heightened fight-or-flight, robbing them of reason and making them chase narratives.

“If there's one takeaway me from this conversation, turn off the internet and the TV for for a while and go out for a walk... so much of what we're dealing with is an anxiety um generation engine and um you know they're trying to keep you in a a heightened state of fight or flight all the time so that they can rob you of your reason and then push you into you know chasing narratives that don't matter”

France has historically hated the US and still does; the French never properly surrendered to the US in WWII (fought for months), the Italians (the actual enemy) surrendered first, and British-French resentment over losing North American colonies 250 years ago still drives EU policy.

“France always hated the US... These are the same people that refuse to to properly excuse me uh to properly um surrender to us during World War II. Like VC France didn't surrender to the United States. They fought us for months. The Italians who were the enemy in World War II surrendered before BC France did. Never forget that. Never forget that the British and the French are still buttth hurt 250 years later over losing control over their colonies in North America.”

Americans left Europe to escape European feudalism and build something new in 'the last frontier'; Europeans now want America back but 'a mob boss from Queens' (Trump) will not roll over and die to 'inbred feckless European oligarchs.'

“We're the Europeans who left to get away from your and build something new in the last frontier on the freaking planet. And we did so and you want it back. No. And if you think that Donald Trump, a mob boss from Queens, is going to play that game, is going to roll over and die to a bunch of inbredad feckless European oligarchs. You're out of your mind.”

If Trump turns off US satellites, the Ukraine war is over; Ukraine will lose not just the four contested oblasts but all territory east of the Dnieper River, and there is nothing European powers can do to stop it because they do not control satellite access.

“Trump turns off the satellites, the Ukraine war is over. And Ukraine doesn't just lose the four Oblasts. Zaparisia, um, Donets, Lugansk, and what was the other one? Her son. No, I can't remember the other one. Take the whole freaking thing, the entire All is put a quarter million troops on on one front in the middle of the and just blow the whole thing wide open and take everything east of uh east of the the Neeper.”

To understand global capital flows and power dynamics, one must monitor 40 specific assets: German 10-year, US 10-year, Japanese 10-year, Bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, copper, euro, yen, pound, USDX (US Dollar Index), and swap/spread rates; these markets form the 'ultimate snapshot' of structural forces.

“I've got a I got a watch list on investing.com, which is what I use for my data service because it's, you know, because it's $69 a year and it's a lot cheaper than a Bloomberg terminal. These are the things I watch on a day-to-day basis. And that watch list is, you know, 40 assets wide, right? And it's the assets that undergur and the swap rates and the and the spread rates and whatnot. It's what is indicative of of u what the parameters of this fight for global capital. These are the most important markets in the world.”

You can understand what is happening by assuming all mainstream financial media is lying and making it prove it is telling the truth, rather than assuming truth until proven false; this inverts the epistemic burden.

“You see just assume they're lying to you. You assume that that's never this the story at the Financial Times or the Telegraph or the Wall Street Journal or whatever. It's all little crap. It's just all assume they're lying and then make them prove that they're telling you the truth.”

Alaska alone is worth more in natural resources than all of Europe, but the US has written this asset value down to zero on its balance sheet; the abundance of American natural capital has been obscured and underutilized.

“The United States has an immense amount of capital that's been written down to zero on our balance sheet. The state of Alaska is worth all [22:59] is worth more than all of Europe in terms of um natural resources.”

Tom watches a curated watchlist of ~40 assets (German 10-year, US 10-year, Japanese 10-year, Bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, copper, EUR, JPY, GBP, USDX) on a daily basis as leading indicators of 'the fight for global capital' and uses this data to decode financial news that others cannot understand.

“I've got a I got a watch list on [40:44] investing.com, which is what I use for my data service because it's, you know, because it's $69 a year and it's a lot cheaper than a Bloomberg terminal. These are the things I watch on a day-to-day basis. And that watch list is, you know, 40 assets wide, right? And it's the assets that undergur and the swap rates and the and the spread rates and whatnot. It's what is indicative of of u what the parameters [41:15] of this fight for global capital.”

Gold is likely to correct hard if Trump gets a Ukraine peace deal, potentially from $3,500 down to $3,100, but this does not mean the bull market is over—it's a cyclical correction with new highs to follow 3-4 months later.

“If Trump gets a peace deal, gold's going to [53:34] correct and it's going to correct hard. It doesn't mean the bull market is over. It just means that it's going to correct and the froth is going to come off the gold market. We'll correct back to, you know, if we if we shoot the 35, we'll correct back to 31 and then we'll move we'll start moving higher again three or four months later.”

The Canadian elections will be 'very interesting' with tail risks on both sides; the globalists are likely to install Mark Carney (their preferred candidate), but there is tail risk of failure due to Trump's presence, which could alternatively empower Pierre Poilievre.

“I'd watch the eur I think the Canadian elections are going to be very interesting. I think there's tail risks on both sides and I think you should bet on the globalists installing Mark Carney because they've been successful everywhere else that they've wanted their their pet installed. But there's a tail risk that it doesn't [52:01] happen because Donald Trump's president so why can't Pierre Pv”

The market's resistance to the April 2025 attack proves the dollar's underlying strength and the resilience of SOFR-based pricing; anyone who witnessed this event should recognize the shift in global power dynamics.

“The point here is the system didn't break. The Fed didn't have to step in and do anything... The point here is that they're they're utilizing they're using up assets left and right to get minor scalps.”

Trump is the 'V' (from V for Vendetta)—the monster needed in this moment of history—whereas Evey represents the idealist who works to restore humanity afterward; the current era calls for ruthless consolidation of power, not idealism.

“Now it's the real world. in the real world is you need a you need a monster like V as opposed to, you know, effectively the idealist in Eevee. Like now is the time for people like V. Evey's time comes later to try and, you know, bring it back to metaphor. And Donald Trump is that figure.”

Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) also independently identified that the April bond market attack was a European operation based on the timing and price pattern.

“Scott Bessant looked at that went that was all Europe. And you could see at the times that it it happened, it happened here on the London open or it happened on the New York close or it happened on the European close.”

The Trump administration is burning through opposition assets (institutional credibility, media narratives, financial ammunition) to eliminate figures like Pete Hegseth from his cabinet, and every asset burned in failed removal attempts reduces opposition capacity for future campaigns.

“What's happening is that they're they're utilizing they're using up assets left and right to get minor scalps. And Trump is like, "Yeah, it's fine. Hex is still my SEC death." Like, how many how many assets did they burn in the last two weeks to try and get rid of Pete Hex? Is Pete Hex still secretary of defense? No matter how many times Politico or Axios or the Wall Street or or Wall Street Journal try to say, "Oh, we know through an unnamed source that Pete Hexath is the White House is trying to figure out how to get rid of Pete Hexath." Like, no, he's not.”

Elizabeth Warren criticized Trump's pressure on the Fed, but she had criticized Powell in the opposite direction (for not cutting rates) eight months earlier to help Biden's re-election campaign; this hypocrisy exposes her political corruption.

“He got Elizabeth Warren to come out and like literally, you know, say you can't put pressure the Fed chairs in independence. That's wrong, you evil dictator. I'm like, 'Yeah, but you did the same thing eight months ago when you were pissed at him that he wouldn't cut rates to help Joe Biden get reelected.' Like, so shut up.”

Tom is abandoning libertarian principles ('putting them in a box') and supporting Trump as a necessary authoritarian figure ('V' or 'Dark Knight') to fight the current existential battle against globalist power structures, on the basis that morality is secondary to survival in war.

“I put I took my libert libertarian feifies and I stuck them in a box. I'm like I'll bring them back out when the when this period of history is over because you know we're fighting war here. And so at that point it's not about morality.”

Media narratives about the April crisis (China dumping Treasuries, Japanese pension blowup, basis trade collapse) were 90% false and consisted of established media outlets making up stories to distract from the SOFR attack, representing unprecedented desperation.

“90% of what was said during that week was complete and utter [false] in a way that I I've never seen before, which is the tell. That's how desperate they are.”

The anxiety generation engine of media and internet is deliberately designed to keep populations in fight-or-flight state and rob them of reason so they chase meaningless narratives rather than understand actual systemic dynamics.

“you know some of so much of what we're dealing with is an anxiety um generation engine and um you know they're trying to keep you in a a heightened state of fight or flight all the time so that they can rob you of your reason and then push you into you know chasing narratives that don't matter”

Media outlets like Financial Times, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal, Politico, Axios are engaged in information warfare, consistently generating false narratives to cover for geopolitical attacks by European forces.

“like no, he's not. No, you're not. You don't have anything. You've got nothing and and you're just throwing stuff out there to chum the waters. None of it's true.”

The eurodollar (offshore dollars) exists because the U.S. has never defaulted on its debt and the dollar is the cheapest and most stable trade currency in the world, serving as both unit of account and medium of exchange in global trade.

“The euro dollars are there. Nothing wrong with euro dollars. The euro dollars exist because people want them. Because people want the dollar. Why do they want the dollar? Because the United States has never defaulted on its debt. And it's the cheapest and most stable trade currency in the world. It's the unit of account.”

If the rot in the US defense department and CIA is so deep that they maintain satellite access for Ukraine even after Trump turns them off, those individuals will be identified, removed from office, and executed as traitors.

“unless unless the rot in the defense department is so deep and and the CIA is so deep that even if Trump turns off the satellites, they still get access to them. If that's the case, all those people get outed. They get hung as traders”

Emmanuel Macron's claim that the euro will replace the dollar long-term is absurd; the only thing the euro will buy at the end of this is a guillotine for European leadership, reflecting the desperation of failed leaders.

“Emanuel Macron has the I I I I get I give the guy props for having, you know, stones in the face of all this to say the euro is going to replace the dollar long long term. Like that's nice. The only thing the euro is going to buy when this is all over is a guillotine to get rid of you.”

The April 2025 media coverage was 90% complete fabrication; the articles lied about what actually happened in markets, which is the signal that desperation is at an unprecedented high.

“90% of what was said during that week was complete and utter in a way that I I've never seen before, which is the tell. That's how desperate they are.”

North Florida has been economically depressed and stagnant since 2008, despite the state of Florida nearly doubling in GDP; this demonstrates that prosperity has not reached regional level despite state-level statistics, suggesting massive capital misallocation.

“I live in rural North Florida. I traveled halfway to 3 hours east of the end of the world, Edmonton, to wind up going to Lake City, Florida, which by the way has been a depressed town, cow town, agricultural town, since CO, but not since CO, since the great financial crisis of 2008. Hasn't changed. I've been living here 22 years in a state that's literally nearly doubled in in GDP and yet it hasn't reached North Florida.”

Longo's community of patrons acts as a distributed intelligence network, scanning different information sources and feeding back signals into a private server, allowing him to integrate financial market data with broader geopolitical/political information he would otherwise miss.

“that's why it's I I just a quick sh last thing just a quick shout out to you know the strength of having built a community around you of people who are inspired to do work my patrons keep me up to date on everything else. And so that as I scan the headlines in our private server, our private chat server of the the information that they scour and the the places that they um look at every day, I can use that to integrate what I'm seeing in the financial markets.”