Trump is About to Change Everything For Tech Startups
What this covers
In this special post-election episode, a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz reflect on Trump's dramatic political victory and its potential impact for startups—particularly in AI, crypto, and defense.
They also discuss their new engagement in politics, the importance of bipartisan support and the rightful role of regulation, and how the new Trump administration offers a fresh outlook for innovation and entrepreneurship. It’s time to build!
Enjoy!
Topics covered: 00:01:05 - Two disclaimers 00:01:42 - Recap of the last four years 00:07:15 - Debanking & impact on founders 00:13:38 - Biden admin's crypto crackdown 00:14:25 - Anarcho-tyranny 00:14:58 - Amish vote for Trump 00:16:20 - Marc & Ben's contribution to Trump candidacy 00:23:50 - Why Tech matters 00:28:26 - What to expect for crypto 00:32:50 - FIT21 Bill 00:36:14 - Crypto markets are egalitarian 00:37:21 - AI policy prospects in D.C. 00:40:17 - AI + Energy 00:45:35 - Opportunity for a nuclear renaissance 00:47:16 - U.S. chips production 00:50:58 - What to expect for Defense Tech 00:57:15 - If China wins the global drone market
#trump #donaldtrump #technology #tech #startup #vc #politics #business #blockchain #crypto #artificialintelligence #ai #fintech #innovation #politics #dc
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*Read Marc and Ben's “The Little Tech Agenda”: https://a16z.com/the-little-tech-agenda/
Article mentioned on this episode: “The Problem With Everything-Bagel Liberalism” by Ezra Klein https://nyti.ms/4etBFfl
Resources:
Marc on X: https://twitter.com/pmarca Marc’s Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/
Ben on X: https://twitter.com/bhorowitz
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The views expressed here are those of the individual personnel quoted and are not the views of a16z or its affiliates. This content is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. Furthermore, this content is not directed at nor intended for use by any investors or prospective investors and may not under any circumstances be relied upon when making a decision to invest in any a16z funds. PLEASE SEE MORE HERE: https://a16z.com/disclosures/
Source description (no synthesized summary yet).
The Biden Administration's repressive tech and crypto policies created a severe competitive disadvantage for the US across critical technologies; Trump's election and commitment to letting builders build offers the opportunity to reverse course and reclaim American technological leadership across AI, crypto, energy, chips, and defense.
- Biden-era debanking and regulatory harassment of crypto and fintech companies was extra-legal and authoritarian, deliberately destroying emerging US industries while China and other countries advanced
- Technology dominance is inseparable from economic and military superpower status; the US won the Cold War through technological superiority and faces the same competition dynamic with China in the 21st century
- Trump administration's stated posture of 'we have to win' on tech creates policy space for innovation in crypto, AI, energy, semiconductors, and defense that Biden's precautionary approach blocked
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Debanking is more destructive to technology companies than to other industries like marijuana or guns because tech companies require ongoing external investment and cannot function without bank accounts for wire transfers, payroll, and daily operations.
“it's much harder on a technology company actually than a weed company it's hard on a weed company because you know you have to store your money in cash uh and then you can get robbed and you know you create a lot of criminal activity you know you have this big Honeypot that you can go you know after um but it's worse for a tech company because tech companies require inve new investment uh you know from outside investors and it's really hard to have somebody you know wire you $20 million if you don't have a bank account or be able to do business on a day-to-day basis”
FIT 21 establishes 'market structure' definitions for crypto, distinguishing between securities and commodities, which is necessary because the same technological asset (token, NFT) can represent different things (Pokemon card, stock certificate, digital property) requiring different regulatory treatment.
“it is a new technology and um despite what the SEC had been arguing which is ridiculous which is we didn't need any new regulation for it because it's not new and it's like well yes it is new because an nft for example or a uh you know a token can be a Pokemon card it could be a stock certificate you know and how do you know which one it is and because does should it be regulated as a security or should it be reg regulated as a commodity and those are very different”
The Biden Administration only dispersed 0.4% of the CHIPS Act funding despite allocating $40+ billion to build US semiconductor fab capacity, with money withheld due to repeated renegotiation of political requirements.
“as of today they they have only literally dispersed 0.4% of the chip sacks money um to any of these companies so did is gilsinger in debt then like so did he like so he went to do the buildout and never got the money Intel's financial plan assumed $10 million in money that hasn't shown up”
Drone technology, both offensive and defensive, represents the most significant military advancement since the stirrup, fundamentally changing warfare and requiring counter-drone and AI-based defensive systems.
“he said that the um he said he thinks drone uh both both offensive and defensive weapons drones technology is the most significant advanced in military technology since the sturup um and he said that the reason for that is the sturup was the thing that let people let you ride on horses it didn't let you ride on horses it it let you stand up on horses and fire bow and arrow”
Counter-drone defense requires AI-based systems; you cannot defend against 10,000 drones with $20 million Tomahawk missiles that can only address one drone each.
“you can't defend against drones with like $20 million you you can defend against one drone with a $20 million tomw missile yeah you can't defend against 10,000 drones and so you need you need counter drones right counter drones and hacking Tech and all that kind yeah exactly and so this is like you know sort of autonomy AI drones”
US military field units are currently carrying Chinese drones (likely DJI) in their backpacks for operational necessity because US drone capability is insufficient.
“one of the perverse things happening in the American Military right now is there's a lot of field field people carrying around Chinese drones in their backpacks because they need them for field operations um and they you know they just like because China was allowed far on drones what could possibly go wrong exact well so for for people who don't track this what can go wrong is it could mean that basically in the limit like if the Chinese win the global drone Market it means that basically every American military unit has a Chinese device with them that can be turned into either a surveillance platform or a weapon to be used against them in the event of conflict”
China has placed sanctions on supplying components to Skydio, the leading US drone company, yet the US has not addressed this as a strategic vulnerability.
“and I also think and and not um you know China just uh you know put a sanction on getting kind of supplies to skyio which is the leading us drone company y um and we have not uh addressed that”
Within 24 hours of Trump's election, the stock market posted its fifth-largest day in history with no new economic data, GDP growth expectations, or interest rate changes, driven by anticipatory policy shift away from Biden Administration restrictions.
“within literally 24 hours of him getting elected the stock market had its biggest its fifth biggest day in history no economic news like no the economy's going well no like you know we expect GDP to increase no cut in interest rates no nothing fifth biggest day ever in the stock market”
Defense procurement is hampered by cost-plus contracts that incentivize cost overruns and delays because the contractor profits more from high costs and longer timelines than from delivering good technology cheaply and quickly.
“one one is um kind of procurement and the process and so you know one of the things that happened in the US uh and it you know there were all kinds of incidents that that caused it but um there the rules around what you can procure to basically prevent corruption um have gotten basically illogical and and wild uh so one of them is uh they purchased via this Cost Plus model um which basically says okay whatever it costs you to build then we'll pay you 10 or 20% more than that or whatever it is and uh the problem with that is well like let me just spend as much money as I can building this thing and pay everybody a really fat salary and take our time and have it be long because there's no penalty for it being like three years late in the technology sucking the penalty is for not doing that um and so you have these super high-tech companies with this great technology um and they're like well well you know we're investing all this in R&D so we can get a higher margin than Cost Plus um and we'll deliver it much faster and it will be much better and'll be half the price well you still can't do it because of that”
France is energy independent and not dependent on Russia or external powers, which is possible because France developed nuclear power heavily using technology less safe than what is available today.
“France you know look to their credit France you know is totally clean they have no energy dependency on anybody they're not paying Russia nothing yeah um and you know and they're doing it with much much older less safe technology than we have today”
Genghis Khan was able to dominate because he employed only cavalry forces, which was possible due to stirrup technology enabling mobile warfare without infantry—the first historical figure to do so successfully.
“um and he said the the stups and the bow and arrow on on war horses that was like overwhelming you know genas Khan K is KH that's the first guy who came to mine I was like oh yeah because he was only Cavalry he was no infantry yeah and that was probably because of the sterup yeah”
Government regulators can pressure companies into consent decrees—agreements that appear voluntary but are made under coercion—without legal authority, where companies agree to terms they would never agree to if not threatened.
“well so so specifically like if if a government chooses to especially if if an Administration chooses to they they don't have to do that they can they are free to they're free to threaten and and write letters and make Angry phone calls and and basically threat threaten all kinds of things such that they can pressure you into agreeing to things that are not covered under any law yeah but that you you quote unquote simply sort of like consent decrees is a classic example you voluntar to agree to it but but in an atmosphere of coercion right in an atmosphere of coercion and for a small company that can't fight the US government you know in court just doesn't have the resources to do it right it's extremely effective”
The Cold War between the US and USSR (1917-1989) was fundamentally a technological and economic competition; the Soviet Union surrendered around 1989 because it could not keep pace technologically and economically, preventing World War III and constituting the greatest victory without bloodshed in modern history.
“there was a you know gigantic geopolitical battle in the 20th century between the US and the USSR and that battle ran for you know basically right 1917 to 1989 um and you had you know two systems globally that wanted to take over and one was liberal democracy and the other was to itarian communism um and had the Soviets been Superior technologically they would have been Superior economically and militarily and we could be living today in a much harsher darker uh world than the one we're living in as it turned out we won uh technologically economically and militarily and and actually what happened was at the end the Soviet Union surrendered like in '89 they just they just quit and they just quit because they just couldn't keep up with us technologically and economically like they just they just their system just simply ran out of steam”
President Nixon declared Project Independence in 1971, committing to achieve US energy independence through 1,000 civilian nuclear power plants and a completely electrified grid by 2000, which was technologically feasible.
“president Richard Nixon in 1971 the year I was born declared uh something you call Project Independence was which was to and this was you know this was pre the energy crisis of the 1970s right he basically said 1971 he said we need to get to energy Independence for the us we need to do it we need to do it with nuclear power and so he he basically said we need a thousand nuclear civilian power plants by the year 2000 we need to go completely electric it would have involved cutting the entire electric grid of country energy production over to nuclear zero emission nuclear it would have involved cutting the entire country over electric cars um could have completely turned off fossil fuels with that level of energy generation it could Evol and then complete energy security for the country and like literally it was a completely possible thing to do”
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission, created in response to Project Independence, prevented new nuclear plant authorization for over 40 years, effectively killing nuclear expansion despite the technology's safety and environmental advantages.
“and then he created the nuclear Regulatory Commission which then spent 40 years preventing that from happening right well like just like totally killed it and the nuclear Regulatory Commission did not authorize a new nuclear plant developed uh for 40 years over 40 years um and so like it's this is this has been one of these just incredibly frustrating things to watch”
Modern nuclear plants would be 'light years more sophisticated' than those built in the 1970s that are still operating, offering significantly better safety and efficiency, making the decades-long moratorium on new nuclear builds particularly wasteful.
“the nuclear plants that would get designed and built today would be light years more sophisticated than the ones that are still running from the 1970s um and yet you've been prevented from doing it”
The USSR lost the Cold War because it couldn't keep up with the US technologically and economically; the Soviet Union surrendered in 1989 without armed conflict, constituting 'the greatest victory of a war with no shots fired that the world has ever seen.'
“they just quit and they just quit because they just couldn't keep up with us technologically and economically like they just they just their system just simply ran out of steam um and arguably that's like the greatest you know basically victory of a war with no shots fired that the world has ever seen which is like a very large number of people spent the 20th century expecting there was going to be World War III ultimately between the US and the USSR with hundreds of millions of people dead and it never happened um and it never happened because we were able to win the way the way that we did”
US military procurement uses a Cost-Plus model where contractors are paid actual costs plus 10-20% margin, which creates perverse incentives to maximize costs, extend timelines, and reduce technology quality.
“one of them is uh they purchased via this Cost Plus model um which basically says okay whatever it costs you to build then we'll pay you 10 or 20% more than that or whatever it is and uh the problem with that is well like let me just spend as much money as I can building this thing and pay everybody a really fat salary and take our time and have it be long because there's no penalty for it being like three years late in the technology sucking the penalty is for not doing that”
The stirrup was revolutionary because it allowed cavalry to stand and fire weapons while mounted, creating overwhelming military advantage that made Genghis Khan's cavalry-only forces able to dominate all opponents.
“and so it was the thing that turned the the the the the the Cavalry officer on Horseback uh into somebody who could who could move and fire um and he said the the stups and the bow and arrow on on war horses that was like overwhelming you know genas Khan K is KH that's the first guy who came to mine I was like oh yeah because he was only Cavalry he was no infantry yeah and that was probably because of the sterup yeah and so he could roll in anywhere and just completely Dominate and there was no def at the time there was no defense to it at all like that was just it was just like overwhelming Force”
Ezra Klein's New York Times column (18 months prior) titled 'The Problem with Everything Bagel Liberalism' warned that the Chips Act was failing because the Biden Administration was attaching unrelated political requirements to disbursement, and all of Klein's warnings have come true.
“Ezra Klein who's you know far from a right-winger um wrote a column in the New York Times 18 months ago and he was he was specifically about this and it had a great title he said it's it's the problem with everything bagel liberal liberalism yeah um and what what he meant and he goes through this in detail and he interviewed the Commerce Secretary J rundo in the piece and they talk about this in detail and this is again this is 18 months ago um and he basically says like look like if if if if if we're going to achieve this important National Security industrial policy move we have to like actually let these companies build their stuff and we have to get the money to them and we can't just attach every other political hobby horse issue we have to this thing yeah which it's like literally a bill through Congress yeah yes and so that basically what's happened is basically the money has not been dispersed because the the the deal keeps getting renegotiated to add new political requirements um and I won't go through the long you you can read his article if you want the the long list of them but basically everything he was warning about in his article has actually come true”
France achieved energy independence and clean energy through nuclear power using much older, less safe technology than is available today; the fact that France succeeded while the U.S. failed shows the issue is policy choice, not technical feasibility.
“France you know look to their credit France you know is totally clean they have no energy dependency on anybody they're not paying Russia nothing yeah um you know and you know and they're doing it with much much older less safe technology than we have today”
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission, created in response to Project Independence, spent over 40 years preventing new nuclear plant development, having not authorized a single new civilian nuclear plant for 40+ years.
“and then he created the nuclear Regulatory Commission which then spent 40 years preventing that from happening right well like just like totally killed it and the nuclear Regulatory Commission did not authorize a new nuclear plant developed uh for 40 years over 40 years”
Regulation is necessary for crypto and blockchain markets to build trust; unregulated markets cannot function, and the crypto industry supports sensible regulation that protects consumers.
“regulation you know is is important in these fields these are new things and there's things that are obviously could go wrong you know if you didn't regulate the stock market for example”
Europe's energy dependence on Russian gas creates financial support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine; this resulted from Europe stopping gas development and shutting down nuclear plants rather than building new energy capacity.
“Europe is effectively funding the Russian war machine um by purchasing Uh Russian gas and the reason they need to purchase Russian gas is because they stopped developing their own gas and they have been shutting down their own nuclear plants y um and refusing to implement um uhle yes exactly they they they put themselves in a box and and and they they literally can't stop fung Russia like it continues to this day”
In modern warfare and national security, military power is fundamentally based on technology—if a country has the best technology and most money, it will have the best military; otherwise it won't.
“and especially in in you know for modern you know National Security you know basically the military is based on technology right and so if you have you're going to have the best uh you know defense systems um and the best uh you know everything planes and tanks and subs and everything uh if you have the best tech and the most money and and not otherwise”
Project Independence, proposed by President Nixon in 1971, aimed to achieve US energy independence through 1,000 new civilian nuclear power plants by 2000, with complete conversion to electric grid and electric vehicles, eliminating fossil fuel dependence.
“president Richard Nixon in 1971 the year I was born declared uh something you call Project Independence was which was to and this was you know this was pre the energy crisis of the 1970s right he basically said 1971 he said we need to get to energy Independence for the us we need to do it we need to do it with nuclear power and so he basically said we need a thousand nuclear civilian power plants by the year 2000”
America won the 20th century simultaneously on three interconnected fronts: technological leadership, economic power, and military dominance, with each enabling the others.
“what happened is America won and America won basically on on three fronts uh simultaneously that sort of feed it into each other uh one was America want and Technology we were the technology leader across many categories of Science and Technology number one uh number two we wanton economically we were the economic superpower of the century and then three we won militarily”
Inflation disproportionately hurt poor people because they hold their money in cash, while wealthy people hold assets (real estate, stocks, bonds) that appreciate with inflation.
“if you look at inflation um who did it hurt it really crushed poor people it was fine for you and me right like why was it fine for you and me because we don't hold our money in cash we hold our money in assets you know real estate stocks this that poor people do not have real estate and stock portfolio and a bond portfolio”
The Biden Administration's regulatory actions were so repressive that people experienced psychological relief comparable to removing physical oppression once the threat was lifted, a psychological pattern called 'learned helplessness' where prolonged repression becomes normalized.
“I felt like a boot off the throat like every morning I wake up happier than the day before because all of all of these forms of repression that I just had gotten used to you're under this level of repression for this long when it's relieved it takes you a little bit of time to realize you know my God I can actually I I and the founders we work with can actually do all the things that we that we are completely legitimate things to do that we're we're nevertheless being blocked”
Creative industries and artists have been waiting for a blockchain/crypto platform that enables them to get 90-98% of revenue instead of 2-10% from centralized distribution platforms.
“we have a lot of friends uh in the creative businesses in Hollywood and art in music and they have been you know kind of waiting for a technological platform that gets them past uh what they've been dealing with in these distribution monopolies and you know kind of very you know difficult uh take rates um from the people who are kind of in charge of Distributing the music around the world and now here we have this technology that lets the creatives basically instead of getting 2% or 10% you know depending what platform you're on or 20% of the money get you know 98% of the money”
Climate change solutions are primarily technological rather than policy-based; policy that blocks technological solutions is more dangerous than the climate problem it claims to address.
“the right solve is technological it's not uh it's not actually policy um but policy can destroy the technological answers so there there's many many many things that we can do on climate from you know elon's done a great job with battery walls and um solar and then you know we've seen great Pro progress in both nuclear fishing and you safe nuclear fusion um and then with AI helping us design these systems”
Crypto and blockchain are the one asset class that African-Americans are overrepresented in compared to other demographics, making the crypto crackdown a crackdown on economic equality and financial access.
“but they do have crypto portfolios and in fact if you look at the African-American population there's one asset class that they over index in and it's blockchain crypto Y and so this Crackdown was a Crackdown on equality access to the financial system fairness”
Consent decrees—voluntary agreements between government and private parties—are a form of coercive regulatory tool in which small companies lacking resources to fight the government in court are forced to agree to restrictions not covered by law.
“consent decrees is a classic example you voluntar to agree to it but but in an atmosphere of coercion right in an atmosphere of coercion and for a small company that can't fight the US government you know in court just doesn't have the resources to do it right it's extremely effective”
Being de-banked is more damaging to technology startups than to traditional businesses like marijuana producers because tech companies require ongoing capital raises and regular payment processing, making it impossible to function without a bank account.
“it's much harder on a technology company actually than a weed company it's hard on a weed company because you know you have to store your money in cash uh and then you can get robbed and you know you create a lot of criminal activity you know you have this big Honeypot that you can go you know after um but it's worse for a tech company because tech companies require inve new investment uh you know from outside investors and it's really hard to have somebody you know wire you $20 million if you don't have a bank account or be able to do business on a day-to-day basis absolutely collect revenue and be able to pay expenses be able to function be able to do get pay you know actually have a way to execute payroll right you can't right as a new technology company you can't ask everybody to pay you in cash”
Drone development extends beyond air: underwater drones, land drones, and drones in all environments are being developed, along with swarm autonomy and AI-powered coordination, representing a complete redefinition of warfare.
“it's not just drones in the air it's also drones in the water on the water under the water on land right everything right um and so it's all um you know that like that's all coming and it's it's a it's a both both the US Department of Defense and the Chinese military have identified this is like basically a complete redefinition of how Warfare happens Y”
Japan achieved chip manufacturing success despite being highly bureaucratic because it took a more aggressive execution approach without attaching unrelated political requirements to the funding.
“the shocking thing to me about or one of the most shocking things is there was this kind of ab test because Japan also kind of had this deal um to you know their chip sack version and they're Off to the Races they built the Fab and you know for those of you are familiar with Japan like they invented bureaucracy like these guys love rules they love paper um they love checks and balances they love consensus they're a collectivist culture and in many many ways um yet they were able to”
A pager being weaponized (reference to Hezbollah pager attacks) is an example of how devices in supply chains can become surveillance and weapon platforms if controlled by hostile actors.
“what can go wrong is it could mean that basically in the limit like if the Chinese win the global drone Market it means that basically every American military unit has a Chinese device with them that can be turned into either a surveillance platform or a weapon to be used against them in the event of conflict like a pager for example”
Intel's new CEO Pat Gelsinger committed to massive US fab buildout assuming $10 billion in CHIPS Act funding that never materialized, creating a major financial hole in Intel's plan.
“Intel you know which has its own has its own you know issues from from sort of from from historical issues um that that its new CEO Pat Ginger is dealing with um you know it did commit to a major build out of us chip FB capacity sort of consistent with what the B Administration said it wanted and what it would help pay for with the chips act and then you know I was startled to recently learn I mean even I didn't know that um uh you know as of today they they have only literally dispersed 0.4% of the chip sacks money”
The special forces, battlefield commanders, and military doctrine experts all strongly support adopting drone and autonomous technology, but procurement processes prevent weapons development from keeping pace.
“there's this there's this idea there's been this idea that we're going to do this it has not actually happened yet and one of the things the new Administration has the opportunity to look at and I'm sure they you know they actually they've already said they're going to look from scratch but you know they have a chance to look at this and basically decide if if they really want to do this but but if they do they could take a much more aggressive approach on this yeah I mean the shocking thing to me about or one of the most shocking things is there was this kind of ab test because Japan also kind of had this deal um to you know their chip sack version and they're Off to the Races”
FIT 21, a bipartisan crypto regulation bill, passed the House with all but three Republicans voting for it and 71 Democrats voting for it, despite the White House threatening to veto it.
“the fit 21 bill passed through the house with uh all but three Republicans voting for it and 71 Democrats 71 Democrats voting for it and so and and that was pre the election and those Democrats just to give you an idea how Brave they were went against the White House not only did they go against the White House they went against the White House threatened to veto the bill before it passed”
Elon Musk's litigation against government agencies exemplifies the power asymmetry: even the world's richest person had to 'fight extremely hard' across 'many Arenas' to defend against regulatory claims, while smaller founders cannot survive similar pressure.
“but that's Elon elon's SC you know he is the richest man in the world or whatever and he can fight those things um and he fought them as as we all know extremely hard uh in many Arenas um but for a new company like you know it's a wrap”
FairShake, a super PAC supported by Andreessen Horowitz, achieved a 52-6 record (52 wins, 6 losses) in Senate and House races supporting pro-crypto candidates, including many Democrats.
“well it's really shocking because you know you and I have been around kind of um other tech companies getting into politics and so forth and it's never gone well by the way for for technology industry um this time so fair Shake was 52 and six um which is 52 wins and six losses six losses in in the Senate and in the house in Congress”
Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Senator, was over 10 points ahead in polling when FairShake engagement began but lost to Bernie Moreno, indicating voter receptiveness to crypto-friendly candidates.
“and some of the Races by the way and that was not party line that wasn't 52 that wasn't 52 Republicans that was yeah we supported many many Democrats um Pro crypto Pro crypto Pro crypto candidates um and you know like some of the races were you know in Ohio uh shared Brown was you know over 10 points ahead when we started uh against Bernie Mareno um and Bernie was able to take him out”
Trump's stated policy lens for tech is 'we have to win'—meaning the US must develop the best technology, solve pressing problems, become exporters of technology, and ensure the military has best-available technology.
“the thing at dinner that he said that I remember kind of most vividly is you know because we talked about the issues and look and there are there are various issues on on all these things and we need you know in some places the right kind of Regulation and so on um but he said look we have to win uh and I think he's going through that lens be it fintech crypto AI bio uh you know defense Tech we have to win as a country we have to build the best technology we have to solve uh the most pressing problems you know we need to be exporters of this”
Worldcoin has achieved significant adoption outside the US, with half the population of Buenos Aires using their proof of human service.
“they have great success around the world half the people in Buenos series use them they're outlawed in the US or have been”
A special forces expert said drone technology is the most significant military advancement since the stirrup, which enabled cavalry to stand and fire arrows—drones similarly enable small forces with modern weapons to dominate terrain.
“somebody is legendary in the Special Forces community um and he said that the um he said he thinks drone uh both both offensive and defensive weapons drones technology is the most significant advanced in military technology since the sturup um and he said that the reason for that is the sturup was the thing that let people let you ride on horses it didn't let you ride on horses it it let you stand up on horses and fire bow and arrow oh okay and so it was the thing that turned the the the the the the Cavalry officer on Horseback uh into somebody who could who could move and fire”
Immediately after Trump's election victory, before any policy implementation or economic news, the stock market had its fifth-largest single day in history and crypto markets surged dramatically, indicating the market was pricing in relief from Biden-era regulatory hostility.
“the election happens and you know Trump's not in office he didn't he hasn't really Define you know comprehensively what he's going to do he's given a lot of indication you know he he certainly put out a lot of kind of policy statements and so forth um but within literally 24 hours of him getting elected the stock market had its biggest its fifth biggest day in history no economic news like no the economy's going well no like you know we expect GDP to increase no cut in interest rates no nothing fifth biggest day ever in the stock market um and then the crypto markets went way beyond that uh you know like they just went absolutely berserk all of the fintech it went you know straight through the roof”
Japan administered its equivalent chip subsidy program with far fewer political requirements despite Japan's reputation for bureaucracy, suggesting the US failure was a political choice rather than a structural constraint.
“there was this kind of ab test because Japan also kind of had this deal um to you know their chip sack version and they're Off to the Races they built the Fab and you know for those of you are familiar with Japan like they invented bureaucracy like these guys love rules they love paper um they love checks and balances they love consensus they're a collectivist culture and in many many ways um yet they were able to do it so like we're we're way worse than that at this point”
Trump received a sweeping electoral mandate—winning both the Electoral College and popular vote with the most decisive victory in probably 30-40 years (comparable to Reagan in 1980 or 1984).
“he's now won and and you know not only won won the Electoral College also won the popular vote and sort of a you know probably the most sweeping mandate in American politics in probably 30 or 40 probably 40 years probably back to like 1980 or 1984 probably to Reagan”
Nuclear power plants built today would be dramatically more sophisticated, safer, and capable than 1970s-era plants still operating, but have been prevented from deployment by regulatory obstruction; there is now a real opportunity for a nuclear renaissance under the Trump Administration.
“the nuclear plants that would get designed and built today would be light years more sophisticated than the ones that are still running from the 1970s um and yet you've been prevented from doing it and so there there's a real opportunity with this Administration for a nuclear Renaissance that that at least we would be we're already investing into but we would be super excited to invest into”
AI policy should prioritize 'winning' (maintaining U.S. technological leadership) rather than applying the precautionary principle (regulating hypothetical future harms before they occur), because AI is currently math-based automation with no sentience, self-improvement, or emergent intelligence, and over-restricting it would cede dominance to China.
“and the way the Trump Administration has articulated to us which is you know we have to win we we got to keep an eye on it we have to be careful we have to make sure that you know it doesn't break existing laws um but we have to win and you know hamstring in it in a way that will prevent us from winning is probably worse than anything that we're going to prevent right uh and I think that's you know like that's generally the right posture which is look um right now it's a lot of math um it's doing some neat automation stuff it is absolutely not sentient it's not self-improving um it's not you know these things that whatever a lot of things could happen in the future um we could learn how to do time travel uh you know there there's many things that we could regulate against we do need time travel regulation now right like these kind that's the precautionary principle uh and then you know and the people pushing that are often going for regulatory capture because we're at this place where the companies are very big but the uh Moes aren't very wide”
The Biden Administration went far outside the law by debanking companies, issuing Wells notices to companies for no reason, and threatening companies, mainly focused on fintech and crypto industries, with the apparent goal of destroying those industries.
“they did things that you know no White House has done which is they went far outside the law um and they did things you know like de banking companies um issuing Wells notices to companies for no reason threatening companies and so forth all with kind of the goal and it was you know mainly focused on the areas of fintech and crypto and they did it you know to basically try to destroy those Industries”
The Amish community mobilized to vote for Trump after the Biden Administration's FDA raided Amish farms for selling unpasteurized milk, illustrating narco-tyranny principles applied beyond crypto.
“the Amish decided to come out and vote for Trump because the Biden Administration and this is so wild like raided their Farms because they were selling unpasturized milk right like so that's the big crime”
The 21st century is shaping up as another bipolar geopolitical conflict between the US (with its vision of liberal democracy) and the Communist Party of China (which represents a 'much darker more totalitarian authoritarian view'), with technology determining the winner.
“we're back in a bipolar world and we have the US and and the Communist Party of China um which is sort of you know USSR 2.0 and they have a much darker more totalitarian authoritarian view of how of how world affairs should work um and we're we're basically we're basically we're in a new Cold War like we're we're we're rep laying it”
In the 20th century, America won simultaneously on three interconnected fronts—technology, economic output, and military capability—because these dimensions reinforce each other: tech leadership enables economic dominance which enables military superiority.
“what happened in the 20th century which was this amazing you know Century for for America and for the world uh what happened is America won and America won basically on on three fronts uh simultaneously that sort of feed it into each other uh one was America want and Technology we were the technology leader across many categories of Science and Technology number one uh number two we wanton economically we were the economic superpower of the century and then three we won militarily um and and it turns out these are all interconnected because if you're the top Tech economy if you're if if you're the top Tech country you're likely to be the top economy if you're the top Tech country and you're the top economy you're likely to be the best military right”
A market structure bill for crypto is necessary because tokens and NFTs can represent different asset types (Pokemon cards, stocks, commodities) without clear legal classification, requiring regulatory guidance on which regulatory regime (securities vs commodities) applies to different tokens.
“it turns out that right like it is a new technology and um despite what the SEC had been arguing which is ridiculous which is we didn't need any new regulation for it because it's not new and it's like well yes it is new because an nft for example or a uh you know a token can be a Pokemon card it could be a stock certificate you know and how do you know which one it is and because does should it be regulated as a security or should it be reg regulated as a commodity and those are very different and because they represent kind of digital property rights for you know everything in cyberspace it could be any of the above and so we needed some kind of guidance for entrepreneurs for consumers for you know Traders on like what these things were and that's what the market structure Bill basically defines and you this is a commodity this is a security”
Defense budgeting is complicated by entrenched vendor relationships and complex budgeting processes, making it difficult for new technology companies to break in even with superior capabilities.
“and then there's you know there's another thing that we bump into you know we uh spend a lot of time trying to help um you know help our friends in defense and intelligence and so forth and you know the budgeting process for them is difficult uh you know they they've spent whatever they spent they have the vendors whoever they have and so to get new things in is complicated”
The Biden Administration's chip funding (CHIPS Act) committed 40+ billion dollars but dispersed only 0.4% of the money due to continuous renegotiation of political requirements, leaving companies like Intel unable to proceed with planned buildouts.
“and then you know I was startled to recently learn I mean even I didn't know that um uh you know as of today they they have only literally dispersed 0.4% of the chip sacks money um to any of these companies so did is gilsinger in debt then like so did he like so he went to do the buildout and never got the money Intel's financial plan assumed $10 million in money that hasn't shown up that's hard that's a big hole and it's been a process of Perpetual renegotiation”
China imposed sanctions on Skydio, the leading US drone company, and the US has not addressed this, showing asymmetric competition where the US is not responding adequately to Chinese moves.
“and I also think and and not um you know China just uh you know put a sanction on getting kind of supplies to skyio which is the leading us drone company y um and we have not uh addressed that”
Trump has won with what appears to be the most sweeping electoral mandate in American politics in 30-40 years, comparable to Reagan in 1980 or 1984, with both Electoral College and popular vote victory.
“we spent time with President Trump this summer supported him for for his uh you know for his Tech and business agenda um you know throughout throughout this fall and and through the election and obviously he you know he's now won and and you know not only won won the Electoral College also won the popular vote and sort of a you know probably the most sweeping mandate in American politics in probably 30 or 40 probably 40 years probably back to like 1980 or 1984 probably to Reagan”
The country that wins the drone war and AI technology war will have the best military, making this a critical competition that the US is currently losing to China.
“the country that wins the Drone War and the technology War underneath that is going to have the best military or if we can just tie yes that would be nice we'll be so much better off I mean you know maybe a tie is better than a win in this scenario uh but yeah we got to get we got to get to Stepping because we are behind behind”
Climate change solutions are primarily technological rather than policy-based; policy can destroy technological solutions but cannot effectively enforce behavior change; examples include nuclear fusion, battery walls, solar, and AI-designed systems.
“the right solve is technological it's not uh it's not actually policy um but policy can destroy the technological answers so there there's many many things that we can do on climate from you know elon's done a great job with battery walls and um solar and then you know we've seen great Pro progress in both nuclear fishing and you safe nuclear fusion um and then with AI helping us design these systems”
Europe is funding the Russian war machine by purchasing Russian gas because it stopped developing its own gas resources, shut down nuclear plants, and refused to implement nuclear expansion, putting itself in a strategic chokehold.
“well this is why this is people watching geopolitics will know this this is a big factor in German in uh in Europe now and relative to the war the uh well they're dependent on Russia the Russian invasion of Ukraine so Europe is effectively funding the Russian war machine um by purchasing Uh Russian gas and the reason they need to purchase Russian gas is because they stopped developing their own gas and they have been shutting down their own nuclear plants y um and refusing to implement um uhle yes exactly they they they put themselves in a box and and and they they literally can't stop fing Russia like it continues to this day”
The 21st century is shaping up as another bipolar geopolitical conflict between the US (representing liberal democracy) and China (Communist Party of China, representing totalitarian authoritarianism), and the outcome will depend heavily on technological dominance.
“I at least believe the 21st century is basically going to be another version of that and it so happens that we're back in a bipolar world and we have the US and and the Communist Party of China um which is sort of you know USSR 2.0 and they have a much darker more totalitarian authoritarian view of how of how world affairs should work um and we're we're basically we're basically we're in a new Cold War like we're we're we're rep playing it and and either we and our vision of the world is going to win or or their they them and their vision of the world is going to win and I think it's critically important that it's us”
The SEC fought FIT 21 to the death, proving they opposed sensible regulation and preferred their arbitrary approach.
“and I think it's really interesting you know if you don't believe what we're saying why did the SEC fight this bill to the death but I think regulation you know is is important in these fields these are new things and there's things that are obviously could go wrong you know if you didn't regulate the stock market for example”
Defense procurement rules designed to prevent corruption have become illogical and wild, preventing modern tech companies from selling superior products to the military.
“well there's two big ones one one is um kind of procurement and the process and so you know one of the things that happened in the US uh and it you know there were all kinds of incidents that that caused it but um there the rules around what you can procure to basically prevent corruption um have gotten basically illogical and and wild”
Korea, a significantly smaller country by comparison to the US, has double the cryptocurrency usage as the United States, illustrating the damage of US crypto policy.
“Korea which is a very small country by comparison has double the crypto usage as us so like just you know like as a very very small example”
Nas released an NFT of a previously-released Grammy-winning album song that generated more revenue than the original album despite coming out later, demonstrating the creator economy potential of blockchain technology.
“my friend Nas put out a an nft of a song that you know had been out that the album won the Grammy and the song nft You Know made more money than the album uh even though it came out late”
Most carbon emissions come from China and India; US policy mandates like banning gas stoves have minimal effect on global emissions while undermining US domestic builders, making them counterproductive from a climate perspective.
“because you know most of it's coming from places where we can't control their you know lack of use of gas stoves in China or in India uh but they actually undermine uh people trying to build stuff”
Crypto founders report they can now build products and services they had wanted to build but were blocked from building not by law or SEC guidance but by extralegal repressive government action.
“and you know and it just got me thinking well what was stopping you from building the products because it wasn't a law you know it wasn't guidance from the SEC right it it was like just literally this crazy totality Arian repressive um we want to kill industry in the United States for a reason that we're not stating and you know like one of the really remarkable things about the whole crypto Crackdown was you know the claim the lie and it and it was clearly a lie and I'll explain why was that oh we have to protect consumers but as they were you know basically terrorizing every compliant legal company they let all the you know crazy Fly by Night you know Meme coins they they didn't do anything about that yeah um they just let those run”
Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Senator from Ohio, was over 10 points ahead of Republican opponent Bernie Moreno when Fairshake's pro-crypto campaign began, but Moreno defeated him, indicating voter passion on crypto issues crossed party lines.
“the races we were doing and some of the Races by the way and that was not party line that wasn't 52 that wasn't 52 Republicans that was yeah we supported many many Democrats um Pro crypto Pro crypto Pro crypto candidates um and you know like some of the races were you know in Ohio uh shared Brown was you know over 10 points ahead when we started uh against Bernie Mareno um and Bernie was able to take him out”
Drone defense is difficult because you cannot defend against 10,000 drones with a single $20 million missile; you need counter-drone technology and hacking capabilities.
“you can't defend against one drone with a $20 million tomw missile yeah you can't defend against 10,000 drones and so you need you need counter drones right counter drones and hacking Tech and all that kind yeah exactly”
AI is currently just sophisticated mathematics and linear algebra in high-dimensional spaces; it is not sentient, not self-improving, and not an existential threat today, though it could develop concerning capabilities in the future.
“right now it's a lot of math um it's doing some neat automation stuff it is absolutely not sentient it's not self-improving um it's not you know these things that whatever a lot of things could happen in the future um we could learn how to do time travel uh you know there there's many things that we could regulate against”
The speakers and their firm (Andreessen Horowitz) were major backers of the Fairshake super PAC supporting pro-crypto political candidates, which achieved a 52-6 record (52 wins, 6 losses) in congressional races.
“we were we were of course involved directly uh in in number number of situations number of races and then we were a major backer of a super Pat called fairshake yeah uh which was working on behalf of the of the American crypto industry and sort of you know good good crypto policy”
Nas's song NFT made more money than the album that won a Grammy, proving that blockchain enables direct artist monetization that outperforms traditional distribution.
“my friend Nas put out a an nft of a song that you know had been out that the album won the Grammy and the song nft You Know made more money than the album uh even though it came out late”
Anarcho-tyranny is a political theory principle in which lawless actors are allowed complete freedom while compliant, law-abiding citizens are subjected to severe state repression—a dynamic that characterized Biden Administration policy toward crypto versus other sectors.
“there's a there's a thing in political Theory the term called aarco tyranny um and Narco tyranny is the principle that basically says for the Lawless they can do whatever they want and then for the compliant the government is going to torture them to death and and that was crypto yeah that was crypto by the way that's also been for example the city of San Francisco right um and other major cities in the US which is if you're a violent you know drug addict you have free rain on the streets and if you're gonna open up an ice cream parlor like God help you they're you know they're going to regulate”
Andreessen and Horowitz initially (from 2009 to 2021) assumed startups and entrepreneurship were nonpolitical topics and did not engage in politics; they believed companies succeed or fail on their merits without political interference, but the Biden Administration's hostility forced them to revise this assumption and commit to permanent political engagement.
“we spent um you know from 2009 when we started the firm to like 2021 I guess we basically we're not engaged in politics not engag in policy and we just assume startups are a nonpolitical topic and you just like right you build new yep people either like them or you don't and then I I always quote there's an old Soviet quote which is you may not be interested in politics but politics is interested in you um and so yeah so my my conclusion is this has to be a permanent this has to be a permanent role that we play like we we we have we have to stay president there will be some phases of the moon in which the sort of you know the tides are on our side and there will be some phases of the moon where we really have to fight but we have to stay involved every step of the way”
Founders describe experiencing 'learned helplessness' under four years of regulatory repression; once the threat is lifted, they recognize they can now build products they were previously blocked from building despite their legality.
“there's a psychological term of learned helplessness and like you're under this level of repression for this long when it's relieved it takes you a little bit of time to realize you know my God I can actually I I and the founders we work with can actually do all the things that we that we are completely legitimate things to do that we're we nevertheless being blocked”
Technology is a tier-one policy issue equal in importance or greater importance than every other political issue because technology dominance drives economic power, which drives military power.
“Tech is a tier one issue it's it's an issue that is as important or more important than every other issue that people are worried about politically and the reason for that is tech tech goes right to the heart of whether America is a strong country or not”
Andreessen and Horowitz as VC leaders have a responsibility to advocate for startups and innovation because they see more new technology companies than anyone else and understand the implications better than most.
“the last thing we want to do is get like public on politics it's it's you know no good has come from it at least for me um but you know we do have a responsibility because we see literally more new technology companies than anybody else in the world um and being in that position we do have some kind of I think responsibility to our fellow citizens to report out you know what's going on you know what are we building”
It is critical to be non-partisan in tech policy advocacy, supporting pro-tech and pro-crypto candidates from both parties rather than aligning with one political party.
“I think I mean the other big lesson for me was like it's so important to be nonpartisan and to be you know prot Tech uh and there are candidates who are great on that from both parties um and it just so happened that you know in the presidential race this time the the good candidate was a republican on Tech”
Some AI companies are pushing for regulatory capture by advocating precautionary AI regulation to lock out competitors, similar to how search companies would have tried to prevent Google's emergence if they could have regulated the internet in 1997.
“there are factions um it's really complicated I think there are factions you know within Tech that are going for regulatory capture you know some people that you know we know like so it's Tech on Tech crime in this case which you know wasn't case in crypto or fintech um so the the kind of question is what lens do you look at it through”
De-banking—the practice of using regulatory pressure on banks to deny financial services to entire industries—is functionally equivalent to economic sanctions like those imposed on Iran or Russia, but applied to American citizens without legal authority, due process, or appeal.
“it's a it's it's an sort of an extra legal unconstitutional um you know completely outside the bounds of any law um or Constitution provision it's the government effective applying pressure uh the government Regulators applying pressure on banks to basically sanction American citizens in American businesses it's sort of the equivalent of like sanctioning the Iranians or the Russians”
Inflation disproportionately harmed poor people who hold cash instead of assets; they lack real estate, stocks, and bond portfolios that benefit from inflation; however, they do have crypto portfolios, making the crypto crackdown a crackdown on economic equality.
“so um you know one of the if you look at inflation um who did it hurt it really crushed poor people it was fine for you and me right like why was it fine for you and me because we don't hold our money in cash we hold our money in assets you know real estate stocks this that poor people do not have real estate and stock portfolio and a bond portfolio and all this stuff um but they do have crypto portfolios and in fact if you look at the African-American population there's one asset class that they over index in and it's blockchain crypto Y and so this Crackdown was a Crackdown on equality access to the financial system fairness uh and these kinds of things so it was much more diabolical than even you know what we've talked about”
The fundamental orientation difference is: do we prioritize winning first then worry about fairness and safety, or do we prioritize fairness/safety first and accept losing if that's the cost?
“you know somebody who again it really is just an orientation is like are do we win first and then do we worry about like okay like let's make things as safe and fair and possible or do we go we're gonna make things as safe and fair and the way we want them as possible and if we lose fine”
The SEC opposed the FIT21 bill (market structure legislation for crypto) 'to the death,' but once the bill passed the House with bipartisan support (all but 3 Republicans + 71 Democrats), the White House couldn't veto it, showing the power of bipartisan legislative action.
“but I think regulation you know is is important in these fields these are new things and there's things that are obviously could go wrong you you know if you didn't regulate the stock market for example”
Safe AI infrastructure development requires proof-of-human technology to prevent bot-based attacks, deep fakes, and election interference; AI safety for cryptocurrency and machine payments requires Providence technology to verify authenticity—both of which were illegal in the US under Biden but available in other countries.
“the foundation for um safe AI in terms of one you know not getting being vulnerable as a consumer to AI cyber attacks two to dealing with deep fakes three to dealing with Bots um you know four to dealing or you know enabling uh new services with machino machine payments all of none of those things were we going to be able to do as a country so we were very very likely to fall behind in Ai and very very likely to fall behind in the technological race”
The Chokepoint program, originally created during the Obama Administration to prevent banks from serving marijuana and firearms businesses, was rerun as Chokepoint 2.0 under Biden targeting crypto and fintech companies despite those industries being legal and compliant.
“The de banking um was you know kind of one of the more nefarious things it was actually created the idea um was started during the Obama Administration through a a program called chokepoint 1.0 and what choke chokepoint 1.0 was designed to do was you know there were these laws that were coming out like uh marijuana was legal and then of course there was the Second Amendment laws and so forth um and so how do you stop people from you know selling weed or selling guns um and the answer that the administration came up with is well we won't allow businesses who do that to have bank accounts like that we're just going to kick them out of the US Financial system and we'll do that by putting pressure through the FDIC on the banks that if they Bank these things you know we won't let them borrow out the FED window we you know we'll uh put pressure on them we'll find them we'll do these things uh and um so then they reran that play for choke point 2.0 but rather than um kind of you know weed and guns which you know you you might have your issues with weed and guns they actually did it on emerging Industries like crypto and uh and fintech and we had you know dozens of companies kicked out of the banking system simply for in a very legally compliant um way trying to build a company”
Narco-tyranny is a political system principle where lawless actors (criminals) have free rein while compliant citizens face severe punishment, exemplified by the Biden Administration's crypto policy and by conditions in cities like San Francisco.
“there's a thing in political Theory the term called aarco tyranny um and Narco tyranny is the principle that basically says for the Lawless they can do whatever they want and then for the compliant the government is going to torture them to death and and that was crypto yeah that was crypto by the way that's also been for example the city of San Francisco right um and other major cities in the US which is if you're a violent you know drug addict you have free rain on the streets and if you're gonna open up an ice cream parlor like God help you they're you know they're going to regulate well”
President Trump's core orientation on technology is that 'we have to win'—meaning America must develop the best technology, solve pressing problems, export technology, and ensure the military has superior technology—and this lens drives all his policy decisions.
“because we talked about the issues and look and there are there are various issues on on all these things and we need you know in some places the right kind of Regulation and so on um but he said look we have to win uh and I think he's going through that lens be it fintech crypto AI bio uh you know defense Tech we have to win as a country we have to build the best technology we have to solve uh the most pressing problems you know we need to be exporters of this we need to uh have the you know our military needs the best technology our uh kind of we need the best technology for Public Safety we need the best technology in Academia we just need the best technology”
AI and energy are deeply intertwined topics; chip bottlenecks have been replaced by data bottlenecks, which will be replaced by energy bottlenecks, followed by cooling bottlenecks—and energy is likely the toughest constraint because the power grid is already taxed.
“and there's also um this sort of interesting thing which I think is very is very wise on the part of some of the people coming coming into office now um which is it it actually turns out that like Ai and energy are are intertwine topics very intertwined um so you know it's really interesting one of the reasons why you know there likely will be a Google of AI that we haven't heard of yet is um you know there are bottlenecks that are moving around so there's a data bottleneck now it's going to be F by an energy bottleneck uh you know it started with a chip bottleneck you know then we went to data bottleneck then there'll be an energy bottleneck probably followed by a cooling bottleneck and uh the energy one is probably the toughest because you know the grid is already taxed and this would if we put AI on the power grid it will not work”
Some large AI companies are pushing for regulatory capture through precautionary AI regulations that would lock in their current dominance by raising barriers to entry and preventing new competitors from emerging.
“there are factions um it's really complicated I think there are factions you know within Tech that are going for regulatory capture you know some people that you know we know like so it's Tech on Tech crime in this case”
Small units equipped with 40 men and drones can now accomplish almost anything militarily, and scaling to larger drone swarms (1,000 to 100,000 drones) multiplies this effect.
“he said basically if you take 40 men and drones you could basically do almost anything now yeah right and you have to imagine like not just like one drone or not even 40 drones but like a thousand or 10,000 or 100, right like you know yeah well the drones are getting much smarter exactly and they're able to operate in swarms”
The Biden Administration's AI policy was insular and non-competitive—focusing only on what was good for the U.S. domestically while ignoring global competitive dynamics—which would likely cause America to fall behind in the technological race and AI development.
“the administration um was looking like they were on a very dangerous PA with AI as well uh where they had took an incredible it wasn't the same kind of we want to wreck the industry but more we're going to take an extremely insular View and not look at it globally but just look at what it means for the US and all those things um you know kind of depressed everything from the crypto markets to the stock market to entrepreneurial activity”
In 1997, there were 37 search engine companies, none of them Google; if they had been able to lock Google out through regulation, they would have, preventing the emergence of the dominant search platform.
“we're at this place where the companies are very big but the uh Moes aren't very wide uh so the way to think about it it's like we're basically at search in the on the internet Circa 1997 when there were 37 search companies none of them called Google um and if they could have locked Google out they would have”
Worldcoin's 'proof of human' technology solves the problem of distinguishing humans from bots in a world where bots generate much of election interference, scams, harassment, and hate speech.
“Proof of human um because you know everything from election interference to scams to uh harassment hate speech all that kind of thing mostly comes from Bots like there there aren't actually people like running around sending text messages to every the these are these are AIS Bots um things like that uh but there's no way to tell that”
Doug Bergham, Governor of North Dakota and Microsoft executive, has witnessed the Biden Administration applying the same pattern of lawless regulatory repression to energy that they applied to crypto and fintech.
“Doug bergham is one of my best friends in in politics and and is Governor very you know by the way Tech and business Legend Microsoft longtime Microsoft executive great founder of a great software company called great plane software and then he's been the governor of North Dakota uh for the last two terms and you know North Dakota's been at the center of the US Energy boom yeah right with fracking and and and everything happening you know just you know the Renaissance American Energy that started whatever 15 years ago and it's just been explosive and and actually under under under you know in the in the 2010s B the US got to energy Independence for the first time and you know basically forever as a consequence of this energy boom yeah but Doug's been the governor in North Dakota trying to you know kind of help facilitate this the whole time and he when I I had a conversation with him the the summer and he basically he he described to me what the Biden Administration was doing to the US Energy sector and it was almost word for word what they were doing a tech”
The CFPB threatened a company that provides free loans to poor workers, using coercion to demand they waive attorney-client privilege, threatening to harass them out of business if they did not comply with unilateral consent decrees.
“we had a company who gives free loans to poor people um you know who work at uh you know minimum wage jobs and need to borrow a little money to pay for a birthday party before their paycheck comes um and the cfbb um terrorized them I mean you know BAS basically threatened them told them that if they didn't come under their consent if they didn't you know give up attorney client privilege uh they would you know harass them out of business”
Governor Wes Moore (D-MD) was completely unaware of the Biden Administration's crypto policy and regulatory harassment of compliant companies until they explained it to him directly.
“I'm really good friends with Wes Moore who's the governor of Maryland and he's a Democrat and I explained to him what was going on he just couldn't believe it yeah um and I was like this is it's your boy yes he's like I yeah really Ben like are you telling me the truth it's like I'm telling you man I I couldn't even possibly make this up”
AI and energy are deeply intertwined topics; there are multiple successive bottlenecks in AI scaling: chip bottleneck, then data bottleneck, then energy bottleneck (current), likely followed by cooling bottleneck.
“there are bottlenecks that are moving around so there's a data bottleneck now it's going to be F by an energy bottleneck uh you know it started with a chip bottleneck you know then we went to data bottleneck then there'll be an energy bottleneck probably followed by a cooling bottleneck”
Crypto-based technologies enable solutions for consumer AI protection including defense against AI cyberattacks, deepfakes, bots, and machine-payment services that were blocked during the Biden Administration.
“the kind of foundation for um safe AI in terms of one you know not getting being vulnerable as a consumer to AI cyber attacks two to dealing with deep fakes three to dealing with Bots um you know four to dealing or you know enabling uh new services with machino machine payments all of none of those things were we going to be able to do as a country”
Neither the SEC, CFPB, nor the Biden White House would meet with them to discuss their concerns about tech policy, making it impossible to understand what problems the administration was actually trying to solve.
“we never knew like what is it you're trying to solve for uh and I think there was literally no Americans on their side on the on on these issues like it's like all the people wanted one thing and they still went against it and they went against it with the fury of a thousand Sons I mean you know like it was it was I still it still seems like a weird fever dream you know like how did that really happen”
Worldcoin's 'Providence' technology detects deepfakes, such as identifying a fake video of President Obama, and has been illegal to use or develop in the US.
“the second thing that they provide is uh something called Providence um so oh there's a fake video of uh you know President Obama saying some speech um how do you know well they solve that um but again you know it's been illegal here”
There's likely to be a Google of AI that hasn't emerged yet because AI bottlenecks are still shifting, creating opportunities for new companies to overtake current leaders.
“one of the reasons why you know there likely will be a Google of AI that we haven't heard of yet is um you know there are bottlenecks that are moving around”
Grand Theft Auto (car theft) is no longer prosecuted as a crime in major US cities—if someone steals a car for joyride and crashes it, there are no legal consequences.
“it's a crime if it's you know some huge Auto ring but like if it's just stealing a car like if I steal a car and I just like ride it around smash it into the wall or whatever you know for fun for kicks that's it's not actually a crime it's like a Mamer”
The importance of being nonpartisan and pro-tech is critical; supporting good crypto and tech policy requires backing candidates from both parties, and it happened that in the 2024 presidential race the more pro-tech candidate was Republican.
“I think it I mean the other big lesson for me was like it's so important to be nonpartisan and to be you know prot Tech uh and there are candidates who are great on that from both parties um and it just so happened that you know in the presidential race this time the the good candidate was a republican on Tech yeah um and you know and it's proving out instantaneously uh which which I I did not expect”
As venture investors who see more new technology companies than anyone else in the world, the speakers feel responsibility to report what is being built and whether building is possible, which justifies their political engagement despite generally avoiding public political commentary.
“we really understand this probably as well as anybody and the the reason I mean the last thing we want to do is get like public on politics it's it's you know no good has come from it at least for me um but you know we do have a responsibility because we see literally more new technology companies than anybody else in the world um and being in that position we do have some kind of I think responsibility to our fellow citizens to report out you know what's going on you know what are we building can we build Etc”
The speakers have concluded that political engagement must now be a permanent, ongoing role for their firm, not just a temporary response to the Biden Administration, because politics will always affect startups and innovation requires constant advocacy.
“I mean we we spent um you know from 2009 when we started the firm to like 2021 I guess we basically we're not engaged in politics not engag in policy and we just assume startups are a nonpolitical topic and you just like right you build new yep people either like them or you don't and then I I always quote there's an old Soviet quote which is you may not be interested in politics but politics is interested in you um and so yeah so my my conclusion is this has to be a permanent this has to be a permanent role that we play like we we we have we have to stay president there will be some phases of the moon in which the sort of you know the tides are on our side and there will be some phases of the moon where we really have to fight but we have to stay involved every step of the way because we have to we have to advocate for the things and the people we believe in”
The Trump Administration is 'open for business' on tech policy, willing to have conversations with tech CEOs and founders, and signals willingness to explore policy changes; this willingness to engage is itself a major shift from the Biden Administration's refusal to meet with tech leadership.
“I think the good news the best news on this Administration by far when it comes to All Things Tech uh is that they are open for business and open to the conversation and willing to talk about it they might not agree with anything we have to say they may tell us to you know pound sand whatever but we can at least have the conversation like the frustrating thing”
The tech and crypto crackdowns were important enough to justify public and political engagement despite their usual negative outcomes for the tech industry.
“and that was you know it was a very hardfought they were very good at it uh and um they did you know just to give you just like a rough idea how much they damaged the US uh industry um Korea which is a very small country by comparison has double the crypto usage as us”
The SEC fought FIT 21 'to the death,' which itself proves the bill addresses real regulatory gaps that needed solving.
“and I think it's really interesting you know if you don't believe what we're saying why did the SEC fight this bill to the death”
Ezra Klein wrote in the New York Times that the Biden Administration's issue was 'everything bagel liberalism'—the inability to pass focused industrial policy because every other political goal gets attached, preventing execution of strategic priorities.
“actually it's really interesting Ezra Klein who's you know far from a right-winger um wrote a column in the New York Times 18 months ago and he was he was specifically about this and it had a great title he said it's it's the problem with everything bagel liberal liberalism yeah um and what what he meant and he goes through this in detail and he interviewed the Commerce Secretary J rundo in the piece and they talk about this in detail and this is again this is 18 months ago um and he basically says like look like if if if if if we're going to achieve this important National Security industrial policy move we have to like actually let these companies build their stuff and we have to get the money to them and we can't just attach every other political hobby horse issue we have to this thing”
The right lens for defense innovation is 'we have to win' rather than 'we can't take headline risk' (avoiding costly failures), because headlining failures create public pressure that leads to the 'toilet seat for $10,000' procurement rules that now prevent all innovation.
“if you're going through the lens if we have to win as opposed to we can't take headline risk you know we can't be on 60 Minutes with a toilet seat that cost $10,000 or whatever it is that caused all this um then that's a better place to come from um but you know how that's done uh you know is TBD uh for sure”
The Biden Administration pursued the worst four years of White House technology policy in the speakers' careers, using extralegal tactics including de-banking, Wells notices, and threats against companies in fintech and crypto specifically designed to destroy these industries without clear justification.
“it was um probably the I think unarguably the worst uh four years in our career in terms of uh White House policy as it related to technology and you know probably to business more broadly um and you know I do want to separate the Biden White House from uh Congress and so forth there are a lot of uh Democrats who did good work in Congress who voted for the right things who uh you know have a good kind of set of policy ideas but the White House wasn't that way um and in particular uh they did things that you know no White House has done which is they went far outside the law um and they did things you know like de banking companies um issuing Wells notices to companies for no reason threatening companies and so forth all with kind of the goal and it was you know mainly focused on the areas of fintech and crypto and they did it you know to basically try to destroy those Industries”
The CFPB terrorized a company that provided free loans to minimum-wage workers for emergencies by threatening to harass them out of business unless they surrendered attorney-client privilege.
“we had a company who gives free loans to poor people um you know who work at uh you know minimum wage jobs and need to borrow a little money to pay for a birthday party before their paycheck comes um and the cfbb um terrorized them I mean you know BAS basically threatened them told them that if they didn't come under their consent if they didn't you know give up attorney client privilege uh they would you know harass them out of business um and you know like we had never heard anything like this it's just like absolutely crazy”
Korea, a much smaller country by population than the US, has double the per-capita crypto usage of the United States, indicating significant loss of American leadership in the crypto sector due to Biden Administration policies.
“Korea which is a very small country by comparison has double the crypto usage as us so like just you know like as a very very small example um”
The Biden Administration's FDA conducted raids on Amish farms for selling unpasteurized milk, while actual felonies like car theft go unprosecuted in major cities, illustrating inverted law enforcement priorities.
“the Amish are coming out to vote this time which you don't think of the Amish as you know they like to keep to themselves as their whole that's their whole Jam um but the Amish decided to come out and vote for Trump because the Biden Administration and this is so wild like raided their Farms because they were selling unpasturized milk right like so that's the big crime but like yeah FY Grand Theft”
Many Congressional representatives were unaware of or indifferent to crypto policy despite its importance, requiring them to explain the issue before representatives would understand the problems.
“we had we had that as we as we got more involved over the last two years and had lots of conversations with with with senators and Congress people and you know a lot of them weren't even following the issues you know these are not necessarily top of Mind issues for people who are worried about foreign policy so crypto's like the number 18 issue for like your average Congress person maybe half the time we I I I found myself lost conversations where I was explaining to them what was happening”
Crypto founders are immediately planning to rebuild and launch products that were shelved during the Biden Administration, including technology platforms for creative professionals seeking alternatives to monopolistic distribution systems.
“I've talked to so many crypto Founders who are just like we can build these products now yeah right and you know and it just got me thinking well what was stopping you from building the products because it wasn't a law you know it wasn't guidance from the SEC right it it was like just literally this crazy totality Arian repressive um we want to kill industry”
Andreessen Horowitz has invested in portable/safe nuclear energy as a climate solution technology.
“so one of the things you know we funded uh portable nuclear energy and those kinds of things um but you need you need to let the builders build”
Congress members often weren't even aware of or following crypto and fintech policy issues, making them difficult to convince of the harms; even informed leaders like Maryland Governor Wes Moore couldn't initially believe what was happening without detailed explanation.
“we had that as we as we got more involved over the last two years and had lots of conversations with with with senators and Congress people and you know a lot of them weren't even following the issues you know these are not necessarily top of Mind issues for people who are worried about foreign policy so crypto's like the number 18 issue for like your average Congress person maybe half the time we I I I found myself lost conversations where I was explaining to them what was happening and they they would they at first they would be completely perplexed”
Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota and former Microsoft executive, has described the Biden Administration's approach to the US energy sector as following the exact same pattern of lawless repression and threat used against the tech industry, indicating a broader governance failure.
“Doug bergham is one of my best friends in in politics and and is Governor very you know by the way Tech and business Legend Microsoft longtime Microsoft executive great founder of a great software company called great plane software and then he's been the governor of North Dakota uh for the last two terms...he basically he he described to me what the Biden Administration was doing to the US Energy sector and it was almost word for word what they were doing a tech it it was like the same pattern”
The Biden Administration refused to meet with the speakers and other tech leaders about their concerns regarding crypto and fintech policy, while agencies like the SEC would meet but others like the CFPB would not, making it impossible to understand the rationale for the crackdown.
“the people who care the people who these bad policies were affecting um were really affected and we willing to come out and and vote on it and uh stand behind these issues and the people on the there was nobody on the other side it was like literally just um I didn't even know what the agenda was like we could never get they would never meet with us um you know the SEC would meet with us uh the cfpb wouldn't meet with us the the Biden uh you know Biden wouldn't meet with us and so we never knew like what is it you're trying to solve for”
The key advantage of the Trump Administration for tech is that they are 'open for business' and open to conversation, in stark contrast to the Biden Administration's policy blackout where even major CEOs of largest companies couldn't get meetings.
“the good news the best news on this Administration by far when it comes to All Things Tech uh is that they are open for business and open to the conversation and willing to talk about it they might not agree with anything we have to say they may tell us to you know pound sand whatever but we can at least have the conversation like the frustrating thing and then by the way you know because I the last time we did this Dan Patrick was like oh you guys are so entitled you want to meet with Biden it was like well no we just want to meet with anybody and then by the way it's not just us it's like every major you talk to any major Tech CEO of the biggest companies in the world of the you know of the biggest Pharma companies in the world none of them could get meetings with this Administration”