CIA DIRECTOR GETS CANDID ABOUT TODAYS GLOBAL CHALLENGES | THE CIPHER BRIEF
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CIA Director William J. Burns speaks with CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly at the 2024 Cipher Brief Threat Conference.
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CIA Director William Burns argues that the United States must maintain strategic focus on long-term geopolitical competition with China while managing acute crises in Ukraine and the Middle East through intelligence-backed diplomacy, military support, and alliance coordination.
- The CIA has successfully provided early warning intelligence on Russian invasion plans and used declassified intelligence to counter Putin's narratives while supporting Ukrainian resistance
- China represents the primary long-term geopolitical challenge, strengthening strategic partnerships with Russia and rebuilding its defense industrial base, requiring sustained U.S. focus despite current Middle East crises
- Intelligence diplomacy—leveraging intelligence partnerships with allies to support broader U.S. national security objectives—is essential in an era where the U.S. is no longer the sole geopolitical power and must rely on networks of allies rather than acting alone
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CIA was sent by the President to communicate with Putin in early November 2021 about graphic details of the planned Russian invasion that U.S. intelligence could see coming, and Putin responded with being utterly unapologetic about these warnings
“I remember being sent by the president to talk to President Putin in early November of 21 so several months before The Invasion and finding him utterly Unapologetic about the sort of Fairly graphic details that you know I laid out at the president's Direction about what we could see coming”
China has been more helpful to Russia than anyone else in rebuilding Russia's defense industrial base over the past 18 months, providing microelectronics and dual-use items crucial to Putin's success, though not crossing the line into direct provision of weapons and munitions
“China has done more than anyone else to help Putin rebuild his defense industrial base over the last 18 months not as as far as we can assess now crossing a line with the direct provision of weapons and Munitions to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine but everything short of that in terms of micro Electronics in terms of dual use items as well which have been crucial to Putin's success so far”
The great danger regarding Iran's nuclear program is that the compressed timeframe for producing weapons-grade material creates huge challenges for detection and response
“the great risk now the great danger in a way is that that time frame has been compressed um in ways which you know create huge challenges for us”
Putin believes Ukraine is not a real country, a conviction Burns heard Putin express multiple times including during early November 2021 visit to Moscow
“Ukraine is not a real country um and I think he was convinced that the Ukrainian leadership would just kind of roll over”
Only the U.S. and UK intelligence services (CIA and SIS) were initially convinced that Russian invasion of Ukraine was coming; most other European allies mainly thought it was a bluff
“it was pretty lonely for a while because it was really only us and and you know and sis our UK counterparts who were convinced that innovasion was coming most of the rest of our European allies for whom I also have great respect you know mainly thought it was a bluff”
CIA's initial role in countering information operations involves working with foreign partners to understand and map Russian operations, as disruption requires first understanding what is unfolding
“our initial role is to work with foreign Partners to understand them and to be able to map them and see um you know the ways in which the Russian services are unfolding those kind of operations because that's the only way in which you can disrupt them is to First understand you know what's unfolding in front of you”
Putin has created false narratives and false flag operations that try to blame Ukrainians for provoking conflict, requiring the U.S. to counter his narrative control with truth
“I had watched Putin too many times over the years create false narratives you know false flag operations that try to blame the ukrainians for provoking conflict which we had a very hard time catching up with”
Big countries should not be able to swap or dominate smaller countries just because they think they can, representing a basic proposition about international order.
“the basic proposition that big countries don't get to swap follow up smaller countries just because they think they can”
Resolution of Gaza and Middle East conflicts requires political will: leaders must recognize that enough is enough and perfect is rarely on the menu, requiring hard choices and compromises in the interests of longer-term strategic stability
“it's shaped by political will um in the end it's not just about brackets and texts or creative formulas when you're trying to negotiate a hostage and ceasefire deal it's about leaders you know who ultimately have to recognize that enough is enough that perfect is rarely on the menu especially in the Middle East and then you got to bake some heart choices and some compromises um in the interests of a longer term strategic stability as well”
Hamas is both a military organization and a movement/idea, and the only way to kill an idea is with a better idea—not only security for Israelis but a sense of hope for Palestinians—making the 'day after' question crucial to long-term regional stability
“Hamas is that you know it's it has military capabilities which have been severely degraded by Israel over the course of the last year but it's also a movement and an idea and in my experience the only way you kill an idea is with a better idea um with not only security for Israelis but a sense of hope for Palestinians as well”
Emerging technologies will shape CIA's future as an intelligence service more than anything else, functioning as both a tool for CIA operations and a target for adversary attacks
“nothing is going to shape our future at CIA as an intelligence service more than how well or how poorly we Master uh emerging Technologies um you know for CIA uh emerging Technologies are both a tool and a target”
Russian military and intelligence services are conducting information operations and sabotage operations in Eastern Europe to undermine support for Ukraine in Europe and potentially in the United States
“there have been a series of sabotage operations as well um aimed by the Russian Services largely to try to undermine support for Ukraine uh in Europe and potentially even in the United States as well”
CIA has maintained focus on long-range challenges including China as the biggest geopolitical challenge facing the United States and the biggest intelligence priority for CIA, despite the past year being dominated by two major conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine
“we've managed to stay focused on long range challenges China being the biggest geopolitical challenge I think as all of you know as well as I do that the United States faces and the biggest intelligence priority for CIA”
CIA provided early accurate warning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine before the war began, demonstrating the value of good intelligence service function
“I'm really proud of the record of the agency going back to the period before the War Began um when I think we did what a good intelligence service has to do which is provide early accurate warning of the invasion that was to come”
Putin was convinced he had modernized the Russian military to the point where it could easily overcome Ukrainian forces and had sanctions-proofed the Russian economy, but he was wrong on both counts
“he was convinced that the Ukrainian leadership would just kind of roll over in the path of a Russian military which he believed he had modernized to the point where it could take on that challenge easily he thought he had sanctions proofed the Russian economy by that point um and he was wrong on all of those things”
Putin has a healthy regard for the consequences of using a nuclear weapon and taking on a NATO country, suggesting nuclear use and NATO confrontation are less likely than rhetoric suggests, though the U.S. must carefully assess this risk without being unnecessarily intimidated
“I think Putin has a very healthy regard for what it would mean not just to use a nule nuclear weapon and the consequences of that not just from the United States but more widely across the International Community but also the consequences of taking on a NATO country as well too”
Artificial intelligence and large language models are increasingly important to help human analysts digest vast amounts of open-source and clandestinely acquired information, enabling analysts to focus on questions only the best human analysts can judge, though AI will not replace human analysts
“artificial intelligence large language models are increasingly important to help human analysts digest the vast amount of open- source information and clandestinely acquired information that's out there that's not going to replace human analysts but it's going to enable them so they can focus on the questions that I think only the best human analysts can judge”
North Korean missile improvements through Ukraine testing create real threats for U.S. treaty allies Japan and South Korea as well as U.S. forces in the region.
“that's a way to improve you know problems in their systems which ultimately uh creates real threats and challenges for our treaty allies in Japan and in South Korea as well as for our own forces too”
Translating Israeli tactical military successes into effective strategy requires combining the use of force with good intelligence and smart diplomacy to produce ceasefires in both Gaza and Israel's northern border with Lebanon
“the bigger challenge I think is going to be to translate those tactical successes into an effective strategy that marries the use of force which is really important important especially in dealing with Despicable terrorist groups like Kamas and hisbah but marrying it with good intelligence and ultimately smart diplomacy to try to produce a ceasefire to Israel's North as well as uh what has been a very elusive ceasefire in Gaza”
Putin has a singular fixation on controlling Ukraine and controlling its choices, driven by his inability to see Russia as a great power unless it controls Ukraine
“I would not underestimate Putin's singular fixation on controlling Ukraine and controlling its choices”
The Iranian nuclear program has three legs: means of delivery (ballistic missile systems where Iran has made great progress), enriched material production capability, and weapons grade uranium production capacity
“there are three legs to the Iranian nuclear program's stool in a sense I mean one is you know means of delivery ballistic missile systems and here the the Iranians clearly have made a great deal of progress um in recent years”
North Korea has strengthened its defense partnership with Russia by supplying significant quantities of artillery munitions and short-range ballistic missiles that Russia desperately needs on the battlefield in Ukraine
“strengthening of the defense partnership between North Korea and Russia with the North Koreans supplying significant quantities of artillery Munitions for Russia desperately needed by the Russians on the battlefield short range ballistic missiles as well”
No evidence shows that Iran's Supreme Leader has reversed the decision made at the end of 2003 to suspend weaponization of the nuclear program
“no we do not see evidence today that the supreme leader has reversed the decision that he took at the end of 2003 to suspend the weaponization program”
Iran's regime is singularly committed to taking on Israel and the United States in different ways using proxies throughout the region for decades, and currently faces the reality that Israel has done enormous damage to Iran's leading and most potent proxy (Hezbollah)
“I think it's a regime that is singularly committed uh to you know taking on Israel and taking on the United un States in different ways I don't mean in purely military terms and has used you know proxies throughout the region for you know decades now um but what they face is you know what is the reality that over the last couple of weeks um the Israelis have done enormous damage to their leading proxy the most potent proxy that you know that Iran has been able to field”
New Iranian President Pezeshkian may be interested in stability compared to his predecessor, is preoccupied with economic issues, and understands risks Iran runs if the Middle East conflict expands
“I think president pesan the newly elected president you know is obviously preoccupied with the economy as well and um you know can understand the risks that Iran runs uh if this conflict expands”
The risk of further regional escalation of conflict between Israel and Lebanon remains real, though neither Israeli nor Lebanese leaderships are assessed as currently seeking an all-out conflict
“we Face the very real danger of a further Regional escalation of conflict um you know the challenge that um you know that we see in Lebanon today after two weeks in which Israel has had some very significant tactical successes um the risk of a further escalation between and Israel even though we don't assess at least that either of those two leaderships right now is looking for an allout conflict but there remains that risk”
Misjudgments and inadvertent collisions are the biggest risks for Middle East escalation—'stuff happens' where leaders' intended precise military actions produce unintended casualties.
“misjudgments that you know people often times leaders oftentimes make in the Middle East the stuff happens category you know where what people think is a you know a precise targeted um you know military action ends up producing um you know lots of casualties”
It would be a huge mistake for CIA and the U.S. government to underestimate the strength of the strategic partnership between China and Russia, despite historical mistrust between the two powers
“I think uh first it would be a huge mistake for us at CIA and the US government or you know anyone watching that relationship to underestimate the strength of the partnership right now”
CIA declassified some intelligence secrets to put Putin in an uncomfortable and unaccustomed position of being on his back foot, especially during the critical first year of the war in Ukraine
“to declassify some of our secrets um to put Putin in the uncomfortable and unaccustomed position of being on his back foot I think through especially through the critical first year of the war”
Intelligence diplomacy—using intelligence relationships to serve the wider U.S. national security interest—is especially important in the age of long-term competition with China because the U.S. can work with allies on intelligence issues in ways China and Russia cannot
“I think it's especially important in age in which we're engaged in long-term competition with the People's Republic of China so I spend a fair amount of my time you know when I travel in the Indo Pacific you know to try to work closely with not just intelligence Partners but leaderships as well”
There is risk of declassification overdoing it in Washington, and the best way to lose good intelligence sources is to overdo declassification.
“Washington in my experience is a town in which people think anything worth doing is worth overdoing so you you got to be careful because you know the shest way to lose good sources of intelligence um is to overdo it too but I I think right now the you know the president has gotten this exactly right”
Russians will eventually chafe at being China's junior partner, just as they chafed at being seen as junior partner to U.S. after Cold War, but this is not immediate concern.
“Russians chafed at being seen as the junior partner of the United States right after the end of the Cold War Russians in my experience and I spent six years of my life living there as a diplomat in my experience Russians are also eventually going to chafe at being China's Junior partner too but in the meantime I would not underestimate the bond”
The President has correctly managed declassification of intelligence by being careful and using the technique in rare instances, avoiding the problem of overuse which would compromise sources of intelligence
“the president was exactly right in the very careful declassification of some of our secrets”
Putin believes Americans have attention deficit disorder and repeatedly move on to the next challenge, making it critical to demonstrate sustained support for Ukraine.
“Putin in my experience dealing with him over many years always thinks Americans have attenion deficit disorder and you know sometimes we demonstrate that we move on to the next challenge this is one of those cases where we have to demonstrate um you know the strength of our support for Ukraine”
The window for invading Ukraine was strategic opportunity that did not necessarily have to unfold exactly as it did in February 2022, but reflected Putin's absolute and often ruthless determination.
“he saw that as his um window his strategic opportunity uh he thought that European leaders were distracted for a whole variety of reasons”
The prisoner swap freed not only American citizens but seven Russian political prisoners who otherwise would have died in Russian penal colonies, demonstrating the virtue of intelligence diplomacy
“it was incredibly satisfying um to be able to see not just you know the American citizens who were released but seven Russian political prisoners who otherwise I am convinced would have died in Russian penal colonies”
CIA is actively recruiting Russians to cooperate with the agency using social media, capitalizing on disaffection with Putin's conduct of the war, and this recruitment effort has produced results
“there has been a fair amount of disaffection with you know Putin's conduct of the war um and so we're taking full advantage of it we really are”
Burns is confident that CIA, as a human intelligence service at its core, will be able to sustain capability in navigating surveillance systems in ways that serve American security interests.
“I would never be complacent or overconfident about that I think today we're pointed in a good direction and I think we just need to continue to to move faster um certainly faster than our Rivals and adversaries do but I am confident that you know since as I said at our core we human intelligence service that we're going to be able to sustain that”
The DNI (Director of National Intelligence) system was created in the wake of 9/11 with a sharp focus on ensuring coordination across the intelligence community, and has largely succeeded in that mission
“the dni when odni was created as you well know it was you know in large part in the wake of 911 and you know with a very sharp focus on uring coordination across the intelligence community and I think in that it has largely succeeded”
Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 hostage in the October attack that began the Gaza conflict.
“a horrific terrorist attack which slaughtered 1200 Israelis took another 250 hostage”
Early career CIA officers demonstrate both professional skill and teamwork during training, with some having military experience but others contributing substantially without military background.
“many of these officers had military experience so some of what they were doing in these exercises was you know not really novel for them but others didn't but they contributed just as substantially as anybody else did”
Burns' early career as a young diplomat in Jordan included a one-month immersion program with a Bedouin tribe (the Howeitat) in southern Jordan near the Saudi border to improve his Arabic language skills
“as a very young Diplomat but it was it was right at the beginning of my first tour in Jordan many years ago 40 years ago um I I took very seriously I studied Arabic before in graduate school so I figured it would be a really good idea to do kind of an immersion program my immersion program was a little unusual it was to spend a month with a bwin tribe the HT in southern Jordan right along the Saudi border”
The U.S. has increasing collaboration with the Emirates in the area of emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence, and there is potential to do even more together
“increasing collaboration with the Emirates for example in the area of of emerging Technologies especially in artificial intelligence as well and I think there's the potential to do even more together”
CIA doubled the number of medical practitioners in the foreign field to support officer welfare and family care.
“I've spent a lot of time in supporting families doubling the number of medical practitioners that we have in the foreign field”
Burns is concerned about CIA officers doing very hard jobs in very hard places around the world, recognizing that the agency cannot eliminate risk despite efforts to anticipate and mitigate it
“what keeps me up at night honestly is the fact that you know I I'm concerned you know about my officers about our officers you know doing very hard jobs in very hard places around the world um and that is not a reflection of any doubt about their professional skill their judgment none at all it's just a reflection of the fact that um we don't have a risk-free environment um in which to operate”
Richard Moore, head of MI6/SIS, is Burns' friend and someone he respects, and they discussed doing public appearances together to demystify intelligence and highlight the importance of intelligence partnerships.
“Richard Mo and I who's the head of MI6 of sis um is a friend and someone I respect a lot and we talked about this a good bit I think both of us feel a responsibility in democracies uh to be able to to within reason demystify a little bit of what you know intelligence is all about”
Burns had the experience of participating in an overnight Special Operations training exercise where a Delta team conducted a hostage rescue operation with him (as CIA director) tied to a chair as the scenario.
“I had volunteered thought it was a great idea at the time to join the last overnight segment of exercise of the Special Operations training course Sai that our operations officers run just before they do the rest of their operations training course too this runs from like 8:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. down in the deep dark Virginia woods and um seemed like a great idea till about 3:00 a.m. when I was wondering whether what I had signed up for but what was fascinating to me was to see this group of officers just at the very beginning of their careers learn not just the tools of the trade and the you know the basic elements of the profession but also learn teamwork”
Israeli leadership takes into account concerns expressed by the President and senior U.S. policy makers regarding how Israel responds to Iranian military attacks
“the Israeli leadership takes into account um the concerns that get expressed from the president and Senior policy makers on our on on our side as well”
CIA has personal relationships with intelligence partners in the Gulf region and spends considerable time working with these partners on issues like hostage and ceasefire negotiations
“spend a lot of time working with the garies with shik Muhammad the guty Prime Minister on the hostage ceasefire talks as well”
Gaza faces a humanitarian catastrophe with both hostages in hell-like conditions in tunnels and Gaza civilian suffering from conflict caught in crossfire
“it's about the hostages living in hellish conditions and tunnels beneath hunas and other parts of Gaza it's about their families um amongst the bravest people I've ever known it's about mothers and fathers in Gaza you know the gazin civilians who are caught in the crossfire and suffering enormously it's about the humanitarian catastrophe that they face”
President Zelenskyy provided inspiration to Ukrainians early in the war with remarkable courage and absolute determination to stay and fight, demonstrating leadership that few other leaders Burns has known in nearly 40 years of public service have provided
“he provided an inspiration to ukrainians at that point that few other leaders I've ever known in the course of the nearly 40 years I've been in public service have ever provided”
The largest number of applicants to join CIA in any moment since just after 9/11 joined during the past year, indicating strong public interest in intelligence service
“this past year we had the largest number of applicants to join CIA of any moment since just after 9911”
Burns initially did not expect to do as much overseas traveling as CIA director, but has logged over 80 trips overseas in his three and a half years as director, a surprise to him
“one of the reasons that I've you know done as much overseas traveling as I had which is one of the big surprises for me I did not expect that I would be doing that when I started this job nearly four years ago”
Burns learns something new every day as CIA director, driven by curiosity and the opportunity to work with remarkable officers
“I learn something new every day that's for sure but that's a large part of why I love the job so much it's it's my curiosity and learning new things um but it's also just the pride I take in working with such a remarkable group of women and men”