232 - Mapping the Collapse of the Global Order | Peter Zeihan | Velina's Talk
What this covers
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist who has immersed himself in the world of international affairs throughout his career. He is also an author and has published multiple books including his latest one "The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization". He has also featured in some of the world's top podcasts such as The Joe Rogan Experience.
In this episode Velina and Peter discuss: 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Demographic Point of no return 02:54 Will India rise geopolitically? 05:42 China's story ahead 08:17 Will China Attack taiwan? 11:49 Cold War 2.0 16:33 EU's survival 20:00 Will Russia survive this war with Ukraine? 25:24 Will China provide arms to Russia? 28:12 Energy transition trends across the globe 30:56 Role of International Institutions 34:07 What region is Peter bullish on? 36:00 BRICS' Currency vs US Dollar
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Peter Zeihan argues that demographic collapse in advanced economies, combined with the end of American-subsidized globalization, will fragment the world into regional blocs with only five countries (US, France, Turkey, Japan, Argentina) capable of projecting power, while most others face permanent recession or stagnation.
- Urbanization caused fertility collapse 20-40 years ago; the 2020s are when major economies shift from too many workers to too many retirees, eliminating consumption-led growth
- China and Russia are economically and militarily incapable of replacing US security guarantees; their demographic and financial crises are terminal
- The US Navy can no longer patrol global commons and the US consumer base is shrinking, so the post-WWII trade system cannot persist; only regional economic blocs can function
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Urbanization and industrialization caused global fertility collapse because children shifted from being free agricultural labor to expensive city dependents; this process began in the 1940s in Germany, the 1990s in Mexico and Brazil, and happens everywhere on the same demographic pathway, with countries starting later urbanizing faster and seeing birth rates drop faster.
“when the world started to globalize we started to industrialize and urbanize and so as we move from the farm and into the city we changed our attitude towards children and on the farm kids are free labor you have as many as you can put up with plus one because that's how you find out it's too many but when you're in the city they're an expense so we went from having seven kids to less than two pretty much everywhere”
The world's demographic structure passed the point of no return 20 to 40 years ago; the 2020s are the decade when demographic collapse breaks apart most major economies as they flip from having too many working-age adults to too many retirees.
“the world's demographic structure passed the point of no return 20 to 40 years ago the 2020s are the decade when it all breaks apart”
The post-WWII global economic system is no longer sustainable because the US no longer has a Navy built to patrol global commons and provide universal security; the US also no longer has sufficient consumption-driving Millennial/young population to subsidize global commerce; therefore only regional trade blocs (Southeast Asia and North America) can survive; everywhere else must restructure or face permanent recession.
“what made the global system work is the United States subsidized everybody's security systems and then provided Global coverage navally so that anyone could ship anything to anywhere we no longer have a Navy that is built for that...the United States does we do have a substantial number of Millennials and young people to provide that consumption of system Europe no longer does so there just aren't enough people in wealthy countries that are in that consumption driven stage of their life to support Global Commerce”
China is completely dependent on the import of raw materials to support its agricultural and energy systems; with the Ukraine war, it now receives crude oil from Russia that must transit through the Baltic, around Europe, through Suez, and by India, Vietnam, and Taiwan—the most insecure energy supply line ever—and is also completely dependent on the US Navy to protect its global shipping.
“They are completely dependent on the import of raw materials to support their Agricultural and their energy system and with the Ukraine war they are now getting crude that is going west out of Russia to the Baltic goes around Europe goes through Suez goes by India goes by Vietnam goes by Taiwan on the way in so it's the most insecure energy supply line ever and they're completely dependent upon the U.S Navy to protect their global Shipping”
China's demographics are 'beyond terminal' and were already in collapse before admitting it miscounted by over 100 million people—all of whom would have been under 40 years old—meaning there is no way China can support its existing population or repopulate.
“the biggest surprise that's going to be happening to most this decade is the collapse of China's and as a functional nation state their demographics are Beyond terminal and that was before they admitted that they miscounted by 100 million and all the 100 million would have been people under age 40. so there's no point that they can support their existing population there's no way that they can repopulate anymore”
Meeting Net Zero by 2030 requires doubling or more of multiple industrial materials: 2-3x copper, 10x nickel, 18x lithium, and more for other materials; humanity has never doubled the volume of any industrial material in a 10-year period, and now must do so for 11+ different materials simultaneously—this is physically impossible without a technological breakthrough in material science.
“if we really do want to decarbonize and hit Net Zero then by the year 2030 we need two to three times as much copper and ten times as much nickel and 18 times as much lithium and on and on and on and on Humanity has never doubled the volume of any industrial material that was already in use in a 10-year period and now we have to do this for 11 different materials and a lot more than doubling no can't be done now there's enough out there for the United States but that would require the United States conquering Congo and taking a big bite out of Northern Russia and parts of northern China and South Africa you know that's probably not going to happen we just need a new technological breakthrough in Material Science before we do this at scale”
Germany already dedicates one-third of its GDP to welfare spending; 15-20 million Germans will retire in the next decade, representing one-quarter of the total population; this makes the European Union unsustainable because Germany is the primary funder and is becoming a net beneficiary rather than net contributor.
“Germany already has to cover one-third of its GDP for the welfare system and that is you know as of today...15 to 20 million Germans will get retired in the next...decade altogether I mean this is already one quarter of the whole population”
In the Ukraine war, approximately $60 billion in foreign direct investment into the Russian system was abandoned because countries did not want to be associated with a 'dictatorial genocidal government at War,' demonstrating that corporate withdrawal is more damaging than formal sanctions.
“there was something like 60 billion dollars in foreign direct investment into the Russian system that was just abandoned because countries didn't want to be associated with the dictatorial genocidal government at War”
Europe's current political-economic system (socialist-democratic model) was built while capitalizing on the security dividends from the American relationship, which enabled high welfare spending without military expenses.
“we have practically built a socialist Democratic model while actually capitalizing on the security dividends from the American rella”
Due to urbanization trends, Europe's welfare model has been a 'one-off'—it was built on a demographic window that is now closing and cannot be replicated or sustained without the demographic conditions that created it.
“because of the urbanization Trend it's it's been a one-off what we're going to see over the next decade maybe two decades is as the United States pulls away from maintaining the economic coherence of the broader system the EU I think is going to go away as the Germans hit Mass retirement this decade”
Europe receives 98% of critical raw materials and rare earth elements for green transition from a single supplier: China.
“98 of all of the critical raw materials rare arts for you know this exact green transition are coming from one single supplier and that is China”
Mexico is the youngest country by cohort in terms of demographics; it started urbanization and fertility decline later than other countries, had a smaller drop in birth rates, and its partnership with the United States gives it significant advantages.
“the youngest country in India's cohort is Mexico they started the process a little bit later the birth rate didn't drop quite as much and the fact that they're partnered with the United States really helps”
Globalization created a system where geography supposedly doesn't matter; if that breaks down, geography matters again because countries must do most things themselves and cannot rely on global supply chains.
“one of the big things about globalization is the United States basically declared that geography doesn't matter that we'll take care of security you can access our market and everyone else's Market as long as you side with us against the Soviets and that created the global system you break that down and geography matters again because you have to do a lot of it yourselves”
Much of what the West is currently doing for green energy is 'wasting capital and increasing our carbon footprint in the name of reducing our carbon footprint'—the policy is counterproductive
“I'm I'm concerned that a lot of what we're doing right now is wasting capital and increasing our carbon footprint in the name of reducing our carbon footprint”
China's cult of personality system means that information is not flowing within the Chinese government and they can no longer make competent decisions; this ossification, combined with propaganda that distorts reality, prevents China from adapting to strategic facts.
“then you throw in the cult of personality which means that the Chinese are now so ossified that information is not even flowing within their own government and they can't make competent decisions anymore”
In environments with young populations, consumption-led economic growth predominates because of high labor supply and demand for goods; in environments with large 40-50 year-old populations, growth can be high-octane and technology-based because they are wealthier and more productive but no longer have children; but once populations hit their 60s, economic growth ends entirely.
“in an environment where you have a lot of young people you know your consumption-led economic growth a lot of Labor you can get a lot of more organic growth that way when you have a lot of people in their 40s and 50s they're wealthier they're more productive but they don't have kids anymore so you get a lot of high octane growth because it can be more technologically based but once they get into their 60s it's over”
Zeihan does not think a direct military attack on Taiwan will happen: China lacks sufficient command and control to execute an amphibious invasion today; learning from Ukraine (where Russia underestimated Ukranian resistance after 8 years of prep), China sees that Taiwan would be even more difficult as a naval assault; and the post-Ukraine precedent of companies abandoning operations in sanctioned countries means China would face immediate de-industrialization and famine within a year if it attacked.
“I don't think anyone thinks it's imminent the Chinese don't think they have sufficient command and control in order to manage an operation today they're thinking that maybe they can do it in a few years...when you look at Ukraine they're like you have to walk from Moscow to Kiev and the ukrainians have only been preparing for eight years and this war suddenly has gotten a lot more complicated than we thought”
Current Western decarbonization/green transition goals are 'a horrible idea' because the technology is not ready; solar panels and wind turbines work only in consistently sunny or windy regions, but 85% of world population lives elsewhere; in places like Moscow, Berlin, Paris, New York, or Toronto, solar panels will never generate enough electricity to pay down the carbon debt of manufacturing them.
“I'm afraid that the green transition in its current form is a horrible idea the technology really just isn't ready solar panels and wind turbines are great if you're in places that are so it's sunny or windy but that's not where 85 percent of the world's population lives and in most places especially places like Moscow or Berlin or Paris or New York or Toronto if you put up solar panels you're never going to generate enough electricity to pay down the carbon debt that it took to build them in the first place”
Russia will continue to push the Ukraine war until it cannot, and Ukraine must eventually cross into Russian territory to break Russian logistical capacity; this introduces nuclear risks but is necessary because Russia cannot back down without facing revolution (the historical pattern when Russia is defeated in war), so the conflict will expand and escalate.
“the Russians will keep pushing until they can't now that they've paid the price for a war but got none of the benefits yeah they can't back down now it would lead to National decision at least government disintegration Russia usually faces revolutions when it's defeat defeated in a war which means that Ukraine has to cross the border into Russia to break up the logistical capacity of the Russians to launch the war in the first place and at a minimum that means neutralizing belgarad and rustavondan and now if you've got Ukrainian forces crossing the border all of a sudden the nuclear question comes back into play from a defensive point of view”
Creating a new reserve currency requires: (1) a massive currency supply to lubricate global trade (eliminating international partnerships); (2) a country not dependent on international trade (eliminates China, Japan); (3) a political system that won't manipulate the currency for advantage (China and Russia fail this test; China manipulates daily); (4) a monetary system that won't monetize excessively (China has monetized 5x more than the US despite not being a trade currency).
“if you want to have a new Reserve currency there's a few things you need in an absolutely massive amount of currency to lubricate the trade that eliminates any sort of international partnership and now you're only talking about the Yen the Yuan the US dollar and the euro you need a country that is not involved in international trade from its own point of view it can't be important to it so in the case of china where you're talking 40 of GDP is directly or indirectly linked to trade they would manipulate the currency day in day out to get what they want like they're doing now like they always have done the Europeans confiscated insured Bank deposits so no one trusts the euro to be a currency of exchange and the end tried this back in the 1980s and got bird and I'll never do it again uh you also have to have a system that isn't going to monetize like mad and yes the United States has monetized but China has done it so to a factor of five more”
China, despite being a massive exporter, cannot form stable partnerships because it needs markets to dump its products on and becomes a dumpload ground for other countries; the dream scenario of US security + Chinese economic access was never viable politically or structurally, and China's demographic moment is ending anyway.
“the Chinese they're a massive exporter which means that they need markets to dump all their product on and so there is no sort of partnership with the in with with the Chinese that allows another country to do well they just become a Dumping Ground or a source of raw materials so people might want the dream situation for a lot of countries as the Americans provide the security and the Chinese provide the economic access but that wasn't ever going to work even if politics in the United States supported it which it does not”
International institutions (UN, WTO, IMF, etc.) only have as much power as member states grant them; they are 'talk shops' and do not exercise meaningful governance; the most important institution moving forward will be the US Federal Reserve, not international organizations.
“when it comes to International institutions they only have as much power as their member states give them and that makes them fairly truncated they're talk shops that's useful but they're not into governance in any meaningful way the institution that's going to be most important moving forward is the U.S federal reserve”
As international trade links collapse, the dollar becomes even more important as a singular store of value; countries need access to dollars regardless of daily fluctuations, making the dollar indispensable in a fragmented world.
“in the world we're moving to where International Trade links break it is even more important to have a singular store of value that doesn't care about the day-to-day value so ironically the less trade there is in the world the more important it's going to be for everyone to have access to the US dollar”
China's rise to its current power was enabled by two factors: globalization and urbanization. Americans are no longer maintaining globalization, and China has already moved all available people from countryside to city (a one-time process), so without sustained birth rates it will collapse this decade.
“China has had a great moment but most of what has allowed China to become the China we know today is globalization and the Americans aren't maintaining that anymore and the other part of it is urbanization which gives you growth but you can only move people from the countryside to the city once and if you can't keep that birth rate up then they collapse and that's exactly what we're facing this decade”
India's birth rate halved in the 1990s and has not bounced back, creating a demographic pyramid where older cohorts are larger than younger ones, with birth rates dropping sharply when examining the 30-something age group.
“their demographic moment is now not in the past they have a basically the pyramid starts with older people comes down to people in their 50s and then their 40s and when you hit the 30s in India it then go goes almost straight down the birth rate halved back in the 90s and it has not bounced back”
China's financial system expanded by a factor of 34 since 2000 while its economy barely quadrupled, representing the largest debt buildup in human history; payback for new debt is minimal and growth has collapsed from 9-10% to 1-3%, and Zeihan does not trust Chinese statistics.
“their financial system is expanded by a factor of 34 since the year 2000 but their economy is barely quadrupled so that's the biggest debt built we have seen in any country in human history and now their payback for the new debt is minimal so we've seen growth basically collapse from the nine and ten percent to like the one to three percent and that's assuming you buy Chinese statistics which I do not”
Russia is utterly incapable of providing an alternative pole to the US because its economy is small, infrastructure is inadequate, its technological system has failed, and its demographics are terminal; it has not fully mobilized for the Ukraine war despite the stakes, suggesting further limits on capability.
“the Russians are utterly incapable of providing an alternative poll and that's one of the reasons why no one has really sided with them in any meaningful way in the Ukraine war their economy just can't support it their infrastructure can't support it their technological system has apparently failed and their demographics are Terminals and none of these things are likely to get much better”
The US has made a credible threat to Vladimir Putin that any nuclear strikes on the Western Hemisphere (or implicitly anywhere) will result in immediate retaliation against Putin personally, with full surveillance and transparency: the US has demonstrated it reads Putin's emails and listens to his phone calls since the war began and will publish everything immediately.
“any direct strike on the United States will be met with immediate retaliation and the United States has made it very clear to Vladimir Putin personally that if you think you can fling a nuke into the Western Hemisphere the first few that come back are coming for you personally and we know exactly where you are because we've been listening to your phone calls and reading your emails since the beginning of this and publishing everything immediately so don't think that you're insulated from this if you decide to go down that route”
The US Navy's shift from destroyer-heavy to supercarrier-heavy force structure means it can no longer patrol sea lanes for global commerce; the example of Iranian seizure of ~6 tankers in the Persian Gulf, met only with US press releases and no military response, demonstrates this incapacity compared to 1970s-80s behavior when the US would have sunk Iranian naval assets.
“we no longer have the Destroyer heavy force that is necessary to patrol the Seas for Global Commerce we're heavy on super carriers now...in the Persian Gulf of late is the Iranians have now grabbed I believe a half a dozen tankers and aside from issuing a press release the US Navy has done nothing had that happened in the 70s or the 80s we would have sunk quite a few Iranian Naval assets”
After the Battle of Kharkiv when Ukrainians captured large quantities of Russian equipment, the logic for Russian tactical nuclear strikes on Warsaw, Berlin, and Stockholm (to disrupt weapon flows) 'largely went away.'
“there was a moment last year when if they would have nuked say Warsaw Berlin and Stockholm they could have disrupted the weapon flows but in the aftermath of the battle of kharkiv when the ukrainians captured so much Russian equipment that logic largely went away”
Europeans have confiscated insured bank deposits, destroying trust in the euro as a currency of exchange; the yen was tried in the 1980s and failed, and will never be tried again.
“the Europeans confiscated insured Bank deposits so no one trusts the euro to be a currency of exchange and the end tried this back in the 1980s and got bird and I'll never do it again”
The US money supply has expanded significantly under quantitative easing, but China's total money supply has more than doubled that of the US despite the yuan not being a trade currency, making China a more aggressive monetizer.
“yes the United States has monetized but China has done it so to a factor of five more and the currency I'm sorry the total money supply in China is over doubled out of the United States despite the fact that it's not a trade currency”
China is providing non-lethal aid to Russia, and more importantly, semiconductors that help Russia complete weapons using off-the-shelf Western technology, which Zeihan considers 'really really really dumb' from a Western security perspective.
“there's non-lethal Aid that is already flowing and more importantly are the semiconductors that can come up and help the Russians finish some of the weapons that they used to rely on off-the-shelf technology from the West which I always thought was from a security point of view really really really dumb but you know globalization has done some strange things so the Chinese are now the primary vehicle for getting that sort of help in and that is really important if there was some way to lock that off it would really hurt the Russians in terms of missiles and especially Optics on things like tanks”
We are entering unknown territorial: simultaneous breakup and unification of the global economic system, with the Fed setting de facto global policy but regional trade links disappearing, creating a mismatch between monetary authority and trade structures never before experienced.
“we're seeing this breakup and this unification of the global economic system all at the same time with one Authority basically setting policy for everyone but the trade links that allowed that policy to percolate everywhere more or less going away we're entering unknown territory here”
Germany has 'bellied up to the bar' and is 'in it to win it' regarding Ukraine support over the last six months, reversing its previous neutrality stance.
“the Germans really have bellied up to the bar over the course of the last six months and they're they're in it to win it now”
India's cultural norms make it very difficult for it to see anyone else as an ally or even as a friend; unlike Mexico (partnered with the US), Indonesia (partnered with Vietnam, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan), India has no meaningful international partnerships and will have to rely entirely on indigenous manufacturing and factors for any development, which will challenge both cost and quality.
“India has no Partners at all so Mexico can partner with the United States Indonesia can partner with Vietnam and Singapore and Taiwan and Japan India is on its own just the cultural norms of the country make it very difficult for it to see anyone else as an ally or even as a friend and so any sort of manufacturing room in India which will happen will have to be based entirely on Indian factors and that's going to challenge the cost and the quality”
Even if countries pool resources to create a joint currency, governance is insoluble: either one country runs it (and runs it for itself) or an independent authority governs it (and becomes the most bribed entity on the planet); there is no stable middle ground.
“if countries tried to pool and do a joint currency who runs it because they're going to run it for themselves if you have an independent Authority that will be the most bribed person on the planet so there's there's nothing about this that is going anywhere”
As the EU dissolves, Europe will fragment into regional blocs: a Scandinavian Network (good demographics, tight ties with London and Washington, Sweden and Finland moving to NATO); a Francophone bloc; Iberia applying for NATO membership under Mexican sponsorship; and a large unsolved problem of Central Europe (extreme demographic decline, trapped between potential allies, too economically entrenched for easy realignment).
“we're going to get a regional breakup of the European system you'll probably get a Scandinavian Network where the demographics are pretty good and the partnership with London and Washington is tight we're seeing that already with the swedes and the fins moving towards NATO you're definitely going to get a francophone world that it's all its own Iberia will probably under Mexican sponsorship apply for NATO membership and then there's the big open question of what happens in Central Europe because that's where the demographic decline is most extreme”
There will not be a meaningful Cold War with China beyond a few years because the US strategy is to keep Ukraine independent and fighting so Russia cannot establish an outer cordon of defense; this ties Russia down on the strategic defensive for the medium term without requiring direct US-Russia conflict.
“the goal here of the West is to is support Ukraine as much as possible because as long as Ukraine is in the fight but so long as Ukraine is independent the Russians can't get that outer crustal defense and they will be constantly on the Strategic defensive until they disassociate”
China's war plan for Taiwan is fundamentally flawed: it assumes the US Navy will sink all American ships within range but then continue protecting Chinese corporate shipping everywhere else in the world—which is logically incoherent and the 'second dumbest thing' Zeihan has heard in 20 years (with the spy balloon being the dumbest).
“their War plan for Taiwan I love this the war plan for Taiwan is so dumb like we're going to sink all American ships within range and take the island but the US US Navy everywhere else in the world is going to continue to protect our corporate shipping that is literally their plan that is like the second dumbest thing I've heard in the last 20 years”
When the Russians become incompetent at warfare (as revealed in the Battle of Kyiv), this terrified Washington not because Russia would lose, but because it meant that if Russia came to Poland after Ukraine, NATO forces would face a slaughter with casualty ratios of 100-1000 to 1 in Russia's favor, forcing the Russians to use nukes
“when the Russians are done with Ukraine they're coming for Poland and Minato needed to get ready for that but when it became apparent that this was actually a fair fight in Ukraine you know an underarmed under-trained Force versus the world's second largest standing army and it was a fair fight somehow everyone got worried because if the Russians are able to subdue Ukraine when they come to Poland it's not going to be a fight it's going to be a Slaughter NATO Forces versus Russia you know you're talking about casualty ratios in excess of 100 to a thousand to one I mean it'll be a blowout and in that scenario the Russians will use nukes”
The world will not see zero growth; instead, it will be 'very split' with some regions doing 'very very well' (the five resilient powers, the secondary tier) and others facing stagnation or decline; this is not a collapse into uniform poverty but a fragmentation into winners and losers.
“we're it's not that we're going to see a world of no growth it's we're going to see a very split world with some parts of it doing very very well”
A secondary set of countries with good demographics and security (but not power-projection capability) will do well within their regions: all of Southeast Asia and much of Latin America (especially Mexico) fall into this category; they will be economically vibrant but not globally influential.
“there's kind of a secondary set where the demographics are pretty good the security is pretty good they won't be able to project power but they're going to be very good by themselves all of Southeast Asia falls into that bucket and a fair amount of Latin America especially Mexico does as well”
Central Europe faces the most severe demographic decline and lacks geographic advantages (unlike Italy, which can be a 'pocket power' backed by the US) and cannot independently sustain modern economies; the US may or may not choose to subsidize its continued existence, but the cost would be massive compared to Greece—Germany is 'a lot of water to carry'.
“there's the big open question of what happens in Central Europe because that's where the demographic decline is most extreme and unlike the Italians they're on the wrong side of the Alps they can't be a pocket Power by themselves that's easy for the us to pick up it's just too big of an area with two entrenched of economic issues and so the question in the United States will be are there countries in the future for Europe that we are willing to pay for them to continue to exist...remember we've done that for Israel and Armenia and Egypt and Jordan for a very long time so it you can't rule it out it's just that Germany is a lot of water to carry that's a big place with a big economy and supporting it will not be cheap this is not Greece”
Five countries have the 'magic mix' of geographic features that enable security and autonomous economic strength: France, Turkey, Japan, Argentina, and the United States; these five will be able to influence their own regions and maintain power.
“the four countries that kind of have the magic mix of geographic features that give them security and an economic shot are France especially post EU turkey today although they have to get through a financial crisis first Japan which even though it has horrible demographics it's been grappling with this and addressing that issue now for 40 years and it's done a decent job in Argentina which I will never say as a country you should follow financially but they have the Assets in the physical location to persist and their current form for at least another century and compared to most countries that's that's just not on the cards those plus the United States those five are the ones they're going to be able to influence their own neighborhoods to their own liking”
The US strategy is to support any weapon system Ukraine can operate and maintain with intensive technical assistance, escalating steadily (with F-16s being the newest system), to keep the fight in Ukraine so as to prevent a general nuclear exchange over Poland, Romania, Latvia, or Finland
“the decision was made early that any weapon system that the ukrainians can prove that they can operate and maintain very important detail maintain they can have and so we've just been steadily ratcheting up the technical assistance in order to help them absorb as much as possible f-16s are the newest one and this will continue because as long as we keep the fight in Ukraine then we don't have to worry about a general nuclear exchange over Poland or Romania or Latvia or now Finland”
Any international organization that includes both China and India as members is functionally incapable of decision-making because they have different opinions on everything that matters; therefore, organizations like BRICS cannot produce binding outcomes.
“any international organization of which China and India are both members is one that doesn't do anything because they have different opinions on everything that matters that includes this currency talk”
Argentina is a country to follow not as a financial example but because it has the physical assets and geographic location to persist in its current form for at least another century, which is unusual.
“Argentina which I will never say as a country you should follow financially but they have the Assets in the physical location to persist and their current form for at least another century and compared to most countries that's that's just not on the cards”
The US will likely become 'a little bullying' on currency policy in the future; current coercive use of dollar access (sanctions on Russia) is mild compared to what will come when there is no global trade system to support—the US will 'really let rip' with currency coercion.
“if you think the United States has gotten a little bullying and with the Russians on currency policy of late just wait till there's no global trade system to support and the Americans can really let rip”
China will likely not provide lethal military aid to Russia because doing so would flip European opinion from neutral to hostile, and even Germany and France (who still favor constructive partnership with China) would turn against China
“I don't think so I think we'd have to have a pretty sharp change in circumstance for the Chinese to even consider getting involved they know that if they provide lethal Aid that that will flip the Europeans from being neutral to hostile and we're actually kind of edging in that direction already it's really only the Germans and the French who are still kind of Towing the line that we need to have a constructive partnership with the Chinese weapons would shift that completely”
France will be the first EU country to leave the union; France ironically has one of the best demographies in the advanced world and refuses to become the single largest payer for the EU to subsidize Germany.
“you will be countries leaving the left and right with probably the French the first out the door the French ironically had one of the best demographies in the advanced world and so the idea of France being the single largest payer in the EU in order to subsidize the existence of Germany oh my I don't see that happening the German or sorry the French plan since the beginning let's get the Germans to pay for everything it's not going to work once we get to that point”
India ranks in the secondary set of countries: it cannot project power globally and is on its own without partners, but aside from the Pakistan question it is 'pretty much going to get left alone' unless it decides to foray into the Persian Gulf, which could get 'really interesting really fast.'
“India makes that second list can't project power it's on its own and with the exception of the Pakistan question it's pretty much going to get left alone unless it decides to go on a little foray in the Persian Gulf which could get really interesting really fast”
Ukraine will be conducting combined-arms warfare for the first time in the counteroffensives, the Russians have underperformed by every measure, and their defensive fortifications may be just as poorly constructed as their overall military planning—so predictions about the war are highly uncertain
“for the ukrainians to doing everything for the first time so the repellent assault were the first time using irregular forces they launched an infantry heavy assault and carcass for the first time they're now getting ready to do a combined arms for the first time just we have no track record here to draw from as for the Russians they have underperformed by every possible measure and so yes they've built a lot of defensive fortifications but if their defensive fortifications were built like their military was planned well then they're probably not worth anything so we just don't know”
Zeihan is shocked at how well Ukraine has done and has never been so happy to be wrong about his initial conviction that the war would be wrapped up in under a year.
“I gotta admit I am shocked at how well the ukrainians have done I've never been so happy to be wrong I was convinced that this was all going to be wrapped up in under a year but the Russians can't back down and in the end of the day if the ukrainians are great they have to push forward”