Bruno Maçães - The geopolitics of 2024 and beyond: US Election, Middle East, and the future of AI

September 2024 marks a potential historical inflection point where warfare fundamentally changed with Israel's pager attacks on Hezbollah and subsequent assassinations, possibly marking the first military use of advanced AI for targeting and operational execution.

“we'll maybe look back uh you know in September 2024 as uh when Warfare fundamentally changed forever um so specifically uh Israel's pagor attack with with Hezbollah”

Bruno Maçães sees strong signs that the West is moving toward the third reaction—defensive lashing out—as evidenced by rising resentment, decreased rationality, and unwillingness to think in universal terms, with increasing support for clamping down on challengers to Western power.

“I see a lot of signs that probably is going to be number three um people are are are becoming more resentful less rational less able to think in Universal terms uh much more willing to to to say we have to clamp down on on these Challengers to our power”

US semiconductor restrictions on China actually accelerated China's development by forcing Chinese tech companies to buy from local semiconductor manufacturers, creating mobilization around national self-sufficiency that would have been harder to achieve through pure government command due to China's vibrant private sector.

“I'm I'm pretty sure of that that seems to be what's happening um because you know um the problem was always to get the whole ecosystem in China together behind the idea of of national production um and that's not that easy to do um you know Central authorities in China can command certain things but first of all China is not the kind of place where they can command everything it's not North Korea it's a has a a vibrant private sector... and what US did very generously was to do that for for China um to make sure that uh the big Chinese tech companies had to buy Bu from local uh semiconductor manufacturers because they couldn't Buy in the US or Taiwan uh Advanced semiconductors uh and so the national mobilization around this goal”

Closing markets to foreign competition through tariffs makes local producers lazier, less competitive, and addicted to tariff protection rather than innovation, causing them to lobby government to maintain or increase tariffs rather than improve products.

“if you close yourself off to competition from the outside we know for sure that what will happen is first that you're going to fall further behind uh that your local producers are going to become lazier um less competitive they're going to become adct did to to to tariffs instead of trying to improve their product they're going to be uh spending their time loving the government to either keep the tariffs or increase the tariffs”

A solar panel cannot manufacture another solar panel, and solar energy cannot currently build transmission lines, meaning renewable energy infrastructure must be built using fossil fuel energy.

“a solar panel cannot make a solar panel right a solar panel cannot build transmission lines uh at least with existing Technologies it's a long way away”

Human-machine interaction (with humans in the loop) works better than fully autonomous AI systems, as demonstrated by examples like 'Palantir' where machines handle certain tasks while humans provide intuition and context.

“no it works better when it's um it's a human machine interaction um banteer platform is a good example of this you don't try to to get the human out of the loop because there are some elements that the machines can't do uh sort of intuition um and context um and they work well together”

It is difficult to determine China's current semiconductor capabilities with certainty because there is misdirection and propaganda from both US and Chinese sides, but Bruno has always believed and currently sees evidence that China can overcome US-imposed semiconductor restrictions.

“of course it's difficult to know absolutely for sure there's a lot of um misdirection there's a lot of uh PR there's a lot of propaganda by the US itself so it's a full-time job to try to see through all this fog coming from both sides uh but you know I've I've always convinced and I think so far it seems to be the wiser opinion I was always convinced that China would be able to um to overcome these restrictions that were imposed on on on semiconductors by the US”

China is transitioning from 'fast follower' in technology to an innovator, as evidenced by its EV capabilities where China is doing things neither US nor Europe can match—not just doing it cheaper or at scale, but things they fundamentally cannot replicate.

“with EVS it's clear that China is doing things that the US and Europe doesn't know don't know how to do so it's not just that they're doing at a scale or they doing cheaper is that uh neither the us nor Europe can do these U batteries that China is doing and even some of the other elements of of EVS uh even the digital elements um I think I think China is doing in a way that that is beyond our current capacities”

Chinese EVs will dominate the Southeast Asian, Latin American, and African markets despite Western tariffs, with enough financial resources to sustain growth through trade difficulties.

“they will dominate the South East Asian market they will dominate the Latin American market and some of the growing Market in africah mhm they will be absolutely uh dominating there uh in Europe I think they'll continue to have access in in some forms even the tariffs that were approved I think are manageable particularly for buid”

Israeli officials Netanyahu and Jared Kushner have publicly or semi-publicly referenced the use of 'fantastic new technology' in the 2024 operations, with intelligence community sources suggesting this refers to AI capabilities for processing big data to map supply chains and insert operational capabilities into them.

“nanahu said we have fantastic new technology um and and uh Jared Kushner also tweeted something along those lines that he has been shown some new technology it seemed that he was he wanted to be quoted there's some public statements that go in this direction... the new technology if it's being used its AI um and it's a the ability to process big data in order for example to um untangle and map the Hezbollah supply chain and then be able to insert oneself into that supply chain”

Space-based solar energy (without intermittency limitations of ground-based systems) represents the future primary energy source, though technology for beaming it back to Earth is not yet efficient and is very expensive, but will likely be the main source 100 years forward.

“up in space that's where I becomes beautiful because um there no intermittency there's no night and day there are no clouds it's all the time um and I'm pretty sure that's the future we still don't quite we have the technology to beam so solar energy back to Earth uh it's expensive not too efficient a lot of energy would be lost it's probably very expensive to build a system so far but you know if you ask me 100 years from now I have no doubt that it's going to be our main source of energy solar energy beamed from space”

Reports from Israeli media (972 Magazine) show that AI is being used in Gaza to identify targets with no human making the final decision on whether to fire missiles, only humans feeding parameters into the system beforehand, which Bruno finds 'very disturbing.'

“these reports that came out 972 magazine it's a Israeli magazine clearly showed that there's no human making the final decision... the human only feeds the parameters but he not there at the moment of pressing the button and deciding a missile is going to be fired and I think that is very disturbing”

Trump's first term was characterized by contradictory foreign policy, evidenced by hiring classical neoconservative John Bolton while campaign messaging promised a break with neoconservatism.

“he sent so many contradictory messages his first term uh was also very contradictory on this you know he hired a a classical neocon figure like John Bolton uh to represent a policy that was supposed to be a break with neoconservatism this is the sort of things uh um Trump does”

If Western companies try to compete through protectionism and tariffs while producing lower-quality cars at higher prices, this strategy will never work long-term because customers will prefer superior and cheaper Chinese alternatives.

“what is the scenario that us uh is going to manufacture cars of lower quality much higher price and then it's going to go to Latin America and say uh you should buy this because this is a Western car and a western car represents freedom even though you know it's it's a a poor quality product uh this never works in the long term”

The Middle East conflict is now in a spiraling dynamic that is very difficult to control, with each escalation leading to retaliation in unpredictable directions (Israeli attacks on Iranian oil fields → Iranian retaliation → potential regional destabilization).

“I think we've now already fully into this spiral that is very difficult to keep under control”

Iran will likely witness the destruction of its own energy infrastructure (potential Israeli strikes on oil fields and refineries) without attempting retaliation against energy infrastructure in the broader Middle East region or attempting to raise oil prices as a counter-measure.

“I find it difficult to believe that Iran would not would would witness the destruction of their own energy infrastructure without uh trying to um uh impair energy infrastructure in the region more broadly mhm uh and perhaps to hit back at us at least through higher oil prices”

Energy must be conceptualized as 'flow' rather than 'stock,' with solar energy promising a transition from fossil fuel stocks to renewable energy flows with lower entropy.

“I'm very interested in the idea of um energy as flow um we we abandoned this the sense of energy as flow when we started to use um fossil fuels because fossil fuels are energy stocks not energy flows uh and the idea of an energy flow uh with much lower entropy um is attractive”

The electrical grid for renewable energy (solar + storage) should be conceptually redesigned as a vast computer where batteries function as buffer memory, analogous to how the internet works with information flows.

“the grd is going to have to be rebuilt from scratch it just doesn't work for um for Renewables as a whole and the authors that have written about this that I find more compelling are the ones that that think about the energy grid as essentially a digital grid very similar to to the internet where in fact batteries are the equivalent the strict equivalent of buffer memory right uh and that's how that's how we should think about the grade as a vast computer”

There is a 'revolutionary consciousness' emerging in American society, particularly visible in Republican circles rather than Democratic/left circles, where people identify as oppressed rather than as part of privileged classes.

“people who feel themselves as as being part of the oppressed and uh no longer see Trump as part of the of the privilege but by the way this consciousness of the oppressed and the privileged uh I don't know if this was always the case in America or if there's a kind of revolutionary Consciousness that is emerging but it's it's quite remarkable and it's in the Republican party it's not in the Democratic part it's not in the the left wing of the democratic party that you see this”

Residents of Michigan whom Bruno met at Trump and Kennedy rallies expressed opposition to continued warfare because they see their own economic suffering as directly caused by defense spending, citing lack of dental plans while companies like Lockheed Martin profit from wars.

“they're very conscious that they're suffering economically because a lot of money is going to finance this war so they will tell you you know I I don't have a dental plan because all these companies like cly Burton are are making fortunes out of these wars and there's no money for anything else”

David Graeber's work on inflation and commodity prices represents one of the more compelling analyses, particularly regarding the energy grid as a digital system with batteries functioning as buffer memory.

“the authors that have written about this that I find more compelling are the ones that that think about the energy grid as essentially a digital grid very similar to to the internet where in fact batteries are the equivalent the strict equivalent of buffer memory”

There is a strong, active, and loud constituency within Republican base advocating 'no more wars,' which is emerging as a significant political force despite America's historical preference for military intervention.

“in both rallies I could see there's now a very strong very active uh very loud constituency for no more Wars as they would they would point out”

Nuclear power has high capacity factors (predictable, reliable output), making it attractive for current AI data center demand, but parallel solar-battery-compute systems (all DC) could offer significant energy savings compared to nuclear-AC-compute conversion chains.

“comparing uh the AI data center demand currently and why nuclear is so attractive is the capacity factors are so high uh the production of nuclear is so predictable and that's really what data centers need at the moment uh but going forward you can imagine this parallel system uh evolving which again is all DC um so now you've got nuclear uh going to AC and then back to DC in in compute whereas a solar battery um compute system is all DC so there's opportunities for a lot of energy savings throughout um through that process”

The challenge for decision makers and public opinion is designing and maintaining discipline around a transition plan that both accepts continued (maybe intensified) fossil fuel use but carefully picks only the industries for which this is desirable for transition purposes.

“but to convince uh our decision makers and our public opinion to design a plan along these lines um and to have the self-discipline to both accept that we're going to have to use fossil fuels for a while longer and maybe intensify the use um but to be able to pick and choose the industries that it's actually desirable to do so right uh and for the right purposes this is going to be very difficult to do”

Visiting the West Bank for even 8 minutes (seeing the separation wall) would substantially change a person's understanding of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict compared to people who don't visit, though more time would be better.

“anyone who goes to the West Bank um has a different view from people who don't uh and we just saw now codes as a as a new book in the US and he went to the West been for8 days which is not a lot no I would recom it's not a year it's I would recommend more than eight days but still he argues that his views changed when he went there and you know in in some sense of course eight8 days not is not enough but in another sense even 8 minutes would have an impact uh if if you go to um to see some of separation wall for example take you8 minutes and already you have a different understanding”

Solar energy is not primitive or backward but rather requires cutting-edge physics (Einstein's 1905 photon paper) and enables entry into a world of super-abundant energy with dematerialized delivery.

“I think there's a mistake when people assume that solar mean means we are going back to the caveman era where we use the sun to warm up our bodies lying on the grass there an idea of solar as primitive but it's quite the opposite uh that it um allows us to move into a world of super abundant energy uh a world of energy flows a world where energy is De dematerialized because the the attraction of of of of solar energy is that there are no moving parts there's no turbin there's no waste”

Travel and field observation are indispensable for understanding major issues like Trump, China, and the Middle East because propaganda (official and unofficial) operates everywhere except on the ground in places where it hasn't yet reached or can't operate.

“it's absolutely indispensable on every issue why it's indispensable I'm not sure one of the reasons is obviously that we live whether we know it or not surrounded by Propaganda official and unofficial and the only way you can break through it is to go to the places where it doesn't operate yet or it can't uh or maybe in a new technological dystopia it operates even at a local level but not not yet”

The Gaza crisis will likely continue deepening with enormous destruction, with credible estimates from Western doctors suggesting approximately 192,000-200,000 Palestinians have already been killed, not Hamas's estimate of 40,000 which Bruno rejects as unreliable.

“I don't trust their estimate of 40,000 Deb this is a Hamas estimate it's a terrorist organization and I don't take their numbers seriously the numbers I take seriously are the numbers from this group of Western doctors and they say uh according to their analysis that something like 100,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza... and according to their analysis that something like 200,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza”

China's simultaneous investment in both solar/renewable energy and in coal/natural gas infrastructure makes sense when understood through Bruno's model: using fossil fuel resources from previous energy paradigm to build the future renewable energy system.

“and if we look at China and people are very puzzled why are they investing so much both in solar for example MH uh where they're head of everyone else but also in fossil fuels uh natural gas but even coal opening many coal plants I mean according to this model that I'm describing it would actually make sense um after all you're investing in solar with resources that come from the previous Energy System what you can do is to use the resources of the Future Energy system in order to build the Future Energy System because they're not available yet”

European countries are more divided on Chinese EV tariffs than North America, with genuine debate about pros and cons, suggesting European countries may try to find ways around tariffs to continue working with China despite Washington pressure.

“in Europe thankfully there's a debate on this with the pros and cons which is all I ask for... but um we'll know very soon but even if the tariffs are approved at a European level so many countries are unhappy with that de so unhappy with that decision that I think they will try to find ways around it uh to continue working with China but uh you really don't see the Same Spirit you see in the US of Canada of of cutting those connections off entirely”

The Canadian government imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs by simply mimicking American tariffs without even pretending to conduct an autonomous investigation of Chinese subsidies, which Bruno criticizes as ungracious governance.

“I thought I was pretty ridiculous when the Canadian government without even an investigation or at least to to so pretend that that you're investigating what are exactly the Chinese subsidies and what kind of level of tariffs we have to respond with which every government does MH they impose I believe 100% tariffs on Chinese EVS just mimicking the American tariffs without even pretending that there's an autonomous investigation I didn't think it was the most uh glorious moment for uh for Canadian uh governance”

A significant portion of Trump's Michigan rally attendees at a Kennedy rally self-identified as 'not Republican' when asked, despite voting for Trump, suggesting the coalition has transcended traditional party identity.

“in the Kennedy rally at some point uh Kennedy or someone else asked uh who here is not a Republican and half the people raised their hands but they're voting Trump I mean this is a thousand people in a in a theater”

Dearborn has become an Arab-American city with Arab-majority communities, electing Arab-American mayors, one of whom surprisingly supported Trump a week before Bruno's visit.

“you have now Arab majority communities there um uh even in Dearborn I think that's already the case electing uh Arab American Mayors um one of which uh supported Trump a week ago so that's caught my attention”

When talking to Trump supporters for hours in person, Bruno found much more economic grievance and oppression than overt racism, and he is more likely to be deceived by mainstream media than by direct conversation with supporters.

“I mean clearly talking to his supporters for 4 hours about everything there wasn't a lot about racism that I would classify as racism there was a lot about economic oppression and suffering economic oppression I didn't quite know that and it's difficult to know now am I being deceived or I think it's I'm not an idiot you know I talk to people for four hours I can sense what what they're thinking even if they're not telling me um it's more likely that I'll be deceived if the information I get is from the mainstream media”

Vaclav Smil's analysis is rigorous and comprehensive on historical energy transitions but appears conservative and pessimistic about future technological possibilities, missing connections between AI and energy that should be obvious from his historical research.

“I like him because of the of the very rigorous and very comprehensive analysis of the past um I I think he comes across to me at least as a bit a bit cranky about the future uh and really conservative... it really comes across almost like an Oxford Dawn you know one of those Oxford professors that thinks that uh even the automobile is a is a malefic Innovation”

Palestinian resistance organizations prioritize maintaining human decision-makers in targeting decisions as an ethical principle, in contrast to patterns observed in Israeli military targeting.

“when I visited palente here they said that in their own work they would never accept this that there would always have to be a human being making the decision”

The composition of Trump's base has shifted and become more diverse compared to 2020, including young African-American men who were not attracted to Trump in previous elections but are now drawn to him because he no longer appears to be part of the privileged classes after his legal indictments.

“I think certainly more diverse um and and and farther apart from traditional uh Republican ideas... I also talked to many young African-American uh men uh who told me they love Trump uh and that I think is a little different from four or eight years ago... Trump 8 years ago was a figure they couldn't relate to uh New York Playboy uh um and uh this time around paradoxically because of his court cases because he's a felon um because it no longer seems like part of the privileged classes um you got many people that seem to to find the to be attracted to him”

A 'gravity force' of structural economic conditions in Michigan pulls voter preferences back toward Trump despite temporary boosts for Harris from nomination and debate performance, suggesting Trump will likely win Michigan.

“there are structural forces there are independent of trump and all this stuff on social media which in the end is quite superficial uh and I think the gravity of those structural forces uh slowly reimposes itself so after Harris uh won the nomination uh if if you can call it that uh she got a boost of course and after the debate she got a little boost but there seems to be some gravity force that pulls it back again towards a slight Trump uh Edge um which kind of reasserts itself”

The large Arab-American population in Michigan, particularly in Dearborn (with Palestinian and Lebanese Americans numbering in the hundreds of thousands and above Biden's 2020 margin of victory), will likely be a decisive factor in the 2024 Michigan election due to Middle East crisis impacts on voting.

“you have this large uh Arab American Community uh particularly in deor which has become an Arab American city... one of which uh supported Trump a week ago so that's caught my attention uh hundreds of thousands for sure uh I checked some of the figures I think Palestinian Americans in Michigan maybe 30,000 and uh believe Lebanese Americans maybe 990,000 these is all numbers above the Biden's margin of Victory last time around”

Manufacturing and automotive industry concerns—particularly in Warren and Dearborn north of Detroit—were central to Trump's rally choice, as he sought to appeal to auto workers facing economic disruption.

“the question of manufacturing and Manufacturing Renaissance this is very important in the rally Trump picked Warren uh just north of downtown Detroit for his rally because he wanted to appeal to the auto uh workers uh Warren is Warren and also Dearborn mythical places for for the American Auto industry”