What this covers
Dan Ariely, a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University, joins Scott to discuss what makes rational people believe seemingly irrational things. He also shares how we avoid certain facts when we don’t like the solution, as well as how a lack of trust in one area can spiral into others. Follow Professor Ariely on X, @danariely.
Timestamps: 00:00 In this episode 02:56 What does it mean to be “irrational”? 08:53 Is this the most stressed generation in US history? 14:48 What are your thoughts on the lack of trust in institutions? 23:57 The importance of acknowledging points on the other side 25:14 What gets us to care about things and then act on them? 31:48 What global/societal issues have occurred as a result of our own irrational behavior?
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Ariely argues that irrational behavior stems from stress-driven psychological mechanisms rather than stupidity, and that combating misinformation requires empathy-based dialogue and understanding the psychological needs misbeliefs fulfill, rather than confrontational argument.
- Stress activates a psychological machinery that leads people to seek stories with villains, providing false sense of control and understanding
- Misbelief is not corrected by evidence alone because cognitive systems employ motivated reasoning to discount unwanted information
- Building resilience through secure relationships and institutional trust, combined with empathetic listening that acknowledges other perspectives, offers better pathways than confrontational debate
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Stress creates a universal psychological vulnerability across all educational and socioeconomic backgrounds; intelligence and education do not provide immunity to stress-driven misbelief because the mechanism operates at the level of emotional need and psychological safety, not at the level of logical reasoning.
“when we're stressed... the kind of stress that says I don't understand the world... when people are living in an environment and say I just don't understand the world they want a story”
In the last five years, very few people have been deeply convinced they were wrong through direct argument, because coming on strongly in debate usually ends up cementing the other person's beliefs rather than changing them.
“when we try to convince people we usually go head to-head but let me ask you in the last 5 years how many people have you convinced deeply that they were wrong uh let's agree that not many I I worry that sometimes I come on so strong that I just end up cementing their position”
Superstition arises from the human need for a sense of control in unpredictable environments; fishermen working in unpredictable deep seas develop more superstitions than those fishing in predictable lakes because superstitions provide a psychological sense of control even when objectively they don't affect outcomes.
“think about two tribes of fishermen One Tribe of fishermen fishes in the deep sea one of them fishes in the lake those in the deep sea have a much more unpredictable environment those that fish in the lake much more predictable which one of them develops more superstitions the ones in the deep sea why because a Superstition gives people a sense of control I'll clap my hands I'll pray to a God I'll do this and this thing and it will give me some sense of control”
Solution aversion is a cognitive mechanism where people reject evidence not because they disagree with the facts, but because they reject the proposed solution to the problem—even highly intelligent people can successfully discount evidence when the solution troubles them.
“solution verion is part of another component which says even when I get exposed to the all the information I'm able cognitively to Discount the information I don't like and focus on the things that I like so this is what is called motivated reasoning”
There is a fork in the road between extrinsic motivation (salary, bonuses, benefits, retirement) and intrinsic motivation, and the empirical evidence shows intrinsic motivation matters much more for company performance and employee wellbeing.
“the reality is that there this fork in the road between extrinsic motivation and intrinsic motivation an intrinsic motivation is salary and bonuses and chairs and tables and health benefits and retirement benefits and all of those things that are called extrinsic motivation don't end up mattering so much this is research that we had data from 2006 ongoing so you know for this for this period and hundreds of company the things that do matter end up being about intrinsic motivation”
When people experience belief change, they often don't understand how they previously held different beliefs than they do now; they look at people they previously agreed with and can no longer understand how anyone could hold those positions.
“we see these people and we say to ourselves five years ago we thought that we had the same beliefs and now we look at the same people and say we don't understand how are how are they and US looking at the world in in the same way and and coming to such different conclusions”
Asking people detailed questions about their understanding of complex issues (through the illusion of explanatory depth mechanism) is a more effective persuasion strategy than asserting counter-arguments or presenting evidence, because it activates their own recognition of knowledge gaps.
“illusion of explanatory depth basically don't fight people come from their side now these Hing at people's perspective in exploring that that process”
The illusion of explanatory depth is the gap between what people think they understand and what they actually understand; people believe they understand how things work (e.g., a flush toilet) but when asked to explain in detail, they realize they have only superficial understanding.
“the illusion of explanatory depth basically says that people think they understand many things in the world but we have only a very superficial understanding and when you push people they basically realize that there's a big gap between what they think they know and what they know”
Alignment with the company's mission and values is important for intrinsic motivation—employees need to care about what the organization is doing and feel connected to its purpose.
“alignment with the company is important right we work somewhere but but we need to know that that we're align with the company that we that we care about what it is that they are doing that we feel connected”
Psychological safety is the ability to express opinions without fear of attack or cancellation, and it is as important to intrinsic motivation as resilience is to resisting misinformation.
“psychological safety is basically people's ability to express their opinions and it's little like resilience and and they feel that nobody would attack them nobody would cancel them nobody would attack them that it's it's a safe environment to express thoughts and and feelings”
Young people today represent the most stressed generation in American history (possibly excepting those during World War II), driven by COVID, Instagram, social media, and 'bulldozer parenting' that has created widespread depression and anxiety.
“you have the most stressed generation in arguably American history I mean maybe young people during World War II but you see all the indicators are young people are depressed and anxious”
Social media has caused multiple self-inflicted wounds: it contributes to loneliness, depression, social polarization, fake news, vaccine hesitancy, and reduced vaccination rates, making class action lawsuit liability potentially much larger than tobacco ($200 billion).
“right now I think one of the big ones is is social media and it's it's multiple wounds the the class action lawsuit lawsuits in the US against tobacco about 200 billion I think something like that what would the number be if there were class action lawsuit against social media it'll be hard to quantify but but we talked about loneliness and depression and Social polarization and fake news and people are not getting vaccinated”
There is a psychological machinery that leads people from standard beliefs to misbelief, similar to how cookies are engineered with optimal combinations of sugar, fat, and salt to trigger repeated consumption—the misbelief machinery involves emotion, stress, cognition, personality, and social elements.
“as a metaphor you think you can think about the cookie and the cookie is a is a weaponized food that is designed to get us to want one and then another one and another one another one and somebody designed the cookie not intentionally to create the Obesity epidemic but somebody designed the cookie with an optimal combination of sugar fat and salt to to get this to get this behavior and we have this Machinery that gets us to believe very strange things”
Resilience is not primarily about bouncing back from tragedy, but rather about feeling throughout life that if something bad happens, someone will catch you—a social contract sense of security that functions like an umbrella policy for psychological wellbeing.
“resilience is not just about coming back from a tragedy it's also about the way we go about our life and do we feel that if something bad happen somebody will catch us you know I think of it like an umbrella policy for everything but but not with the insurance but it's as a social contract”
The real solutions to social media harms must be much broader and bigger than individual chapters can address, requiring: controlling social media platforms, creating new standards for truth, and reconsidering freedom of speech because it can be weaponized.
“I don't have a chapter on solution I have these little sections in the middle called hopefully helpful because I think that the real solutions have to be much broader and bigger we have to control social media we have to create new standards for truth I think the freedom of speech is a wonderful idea but when it can be weaponized in a way that it is now we have to reconsider it”
A study on climate change showed that when people don't like the proposed solution, they reject the evidence itself, suggesting that rather than presenting evidence, a better persuasion strategy is to start with solutions that the other side might agree on before addressing the underlying problem.
“maybe what we need to do is we need to start with solutions that we might agree on and only then try to convince people so maybe not maybe but a better approach would be to say to people no if climate change was real let's talk about Solutions what would be reasonable let's come up with some and then come up with some that would not upset them that they will be willing willing to do and then and then take it from there”
Stress that involves uncertainty about understanding the world (not time-management stress) triggers a psychological need for stories; people don't just want any story, they want stories with villains that allow them to feel they understand more than others do.
“the basic ingredient that starts this whole path is stress and and let let's take us for a second away from from politics and and and the world around us think about two tribes of fishermen One Tribe of fishermen fishes in the deep sea one of them fishes in the lake those in the deep sea have a much more unpredictable environment those that fish in the lake much more predictable which one of them develops more superstitions the ones in the deep sea why because a Superstition gives people a sense of control”
As economic inequality increases within neighborhoods, resilience goes down because people with high income inequality are less likely to ask their neighbors for help, reducing mutual social support.
“another interesting input is that as economic inequality increases resilience goes down why because even at the level of a neighborhood people with high income inequality in a neighborhood are less likely to ask their neighbors for help right so we are we are less together”
Misbelief serves real psychological needs for people: a phrase like 'from the river to the sea' functions as a community statement that fulfills the need for belonging and group identity, regardless of whether believers understand its specific meaning.
“think about about a young person who you know hasn't heard much about Israel or Hamas or the Palestinians but they heard the the phrase from The River To The Sea and they don't necessarily know what river it is or which sea it is but but that that statement is basically a community statement for them we have these people we're marching we we are a group we're together all of a sudden it it fulfills a need it fulfills a need they they belong to something they have they have a group”
Misbelief has two components: (1) belief in something false, and (2) that false belief becomes a deep lens that colors the way someone views the world in general, creating a cascade of additional mistrust in institutions.
“in my definition it has two components one component is the belief in something that is INS so okay that's the outside but the second thing is that it's a very deep belief that colors the way we view the world in general so imagine that I we'll just take the example of the the Earth is flat imagine I think that the Earth is flat it doesn't end there it says that NASA is lying and every airline pilot is lying and every government is deceiving us and every school system knows the best and the space program is a hoax and satellites and other just think about what it is and it's all of a sudden not just the belief that the Earth is flat it's a lens from which you view life and you say I don't trust any of the institutions”
Overconfidence and polarization are driven by people being 100% certain of their position; moving toward nuanced, multi-layered understanding of complex problems naturally reduces certainty and makes people more open to collaborative problem-solving rather than adversarial positioning.
“the moment you get to a higher Nuance understanding of this is a really complex situation there's lots of wrong ways to go forward it's very unclear I think it's a it's a better reflection of the situation and it's also much more likely that we as a public we are not decision makers in in the politic but it's a make it much more likely that we as a public with uh whatever our desires to pressure the political system they would be aimed at the right at the right direction well you talk about this you talk about a means of combating misbelief requires a strategy rooted in empathy”
The most important intrinsic motivation factor is feeling appreciated; people want to know that somebody is watching their work and that it is worthwhile, and there is an enormous waste in society from failing to provide sufficient appreciation.
“one of the things that is the most important is do you feel appreciated now now think about what does it mean to feel appreciated way I think I think that when I heard about this when when I when when we saw the results for this I thought about all the all the waste in the world in which we just don't get people to feel sufficiently appreciated”
Utility embracing means caring about outcomes beyond your formal job description and looking for ways to be helpful to the organization that aren't required, which organizations must encourage through culture rather than enforce through rules.
“when you think about it there are lots of cases in which we want people not to do their job description we want people to look around and say where else can I be helpful what can I do to be helpful for the organization that is not in my job description”
Effective dialogue requires moving away from head-to-head argument and instead coming from the other person's side, exploring their perspective while maintaining empathy, and focusing on understanding rather than winning the debate.
“the illusion of explanatory depth basically don't fight people come from their side now these Hing at people's perspective in exploring that that process”
Combating misbelief requires acknowledging that the other side experienced real suffering and wrongdoing, and explicitly validating that suffering before attempting to discuss moving forward.
“both Sid just want somebody to say you were wronged this was terrible this shouldn't have been like this you were wrong now let's talk about what do we do in moving forward but hearing our pain uh having some sympathy because because the other way we we just think we're fighting right couldn't you hear me here's what I just said that why why can't you acknowledge anything”
People behave as if there is a limited supply of compliments that they must ration, fearing they will die if they give them all away, when in reality there is an endless amount of appreciation and thanks that can be given.
“think about all the people who work with us sometimes sometimes it feels to me that people behave as if we're born with a limited amount of compliments and if we gave all of our compliments away we would die but it's not true we can give there's an endless amount of appreciation endless amount of thanks”
Resilience in society is at an all-time low, measured by how many meaningful friendships people have (operationalized as: how many friends would travel 3,000 miles and spend $20,000 to bail you out of jail), indicating declining social cohesion.
“how how much time do people people uh spend with their buddies how much do people spend meaningful time uh with their buddies how many how many friends do we have that we think will travel 3,000 miles and spend $20,000 to bail us out of jail not that this is the the only test of friendship but the reality is that we're getting into a situation that we have less and less resilience in society”
Misinformation and polarization are now among the biggest problems facing humanity (not viewed this way 10 years ago), because meaningful progress on any issue requires unity—if half the population rejects any solution, progress becomes impossible.
“it's one of the biggest problem I think of modern society is is Miss misinformation and polarization like 10 years ago if you asked me what are the big problems facing human this wouldn't be one of them now I I think that for in order to go forward in anything we need to unite if if whatever decision we make the other half is going to say I'm not accepting it or I think this like we're not going to move forward in any meaningful way”
People have not yet recovered from the emotional aftermath of COVID, and this unresolved trauma makes them more vulnerable to conspiracy theory and misinformation, particularly among young people and college students who spent formative years isolated, worried, and experiencing loss.
“I don't know what your feeling is but my feeling is that we haven't finished even dealing with the emotional aftermath of Co um I think about kids who are now in college that spend the last two years of high school or the first two years in in in Co I think about people who are restricted worried concerned and um lost money lost faith in other people helping them like think about all of this it takes a long time to to recuperate and we haven't recuperated from covid and now we get these other Avalanches that are just making it very tough for us very tough psychologically very tough to cope”
Goodwill is the discretionary effort employees can offer beyond the minimum required to retain their job—the gap between the lowest acceptable effort and the maximum effort they could exert if truly excited—and this range is controlled entirely by the employee's intrinsic motivation.
“think about your current amount of efforts in quality 100 not you but you know somebody think about your your current level of effort at your job and call it the 100 now ask yourself how much lower you could get and still not lose your job many people it's quite a lot and then think about how much up you can go if you were truly excited about what you do that range between the minimum you have to do not to lose your job and the maap you could do if you could be very excited that's I call Goodwill cuz that's the part where the employee controls I decide if to sit here and drink coffee or to try very hard”
Companies that pay employees higher salaries do not have significantly higher stock returns compared to companies that don't, based on empirical data from 2006 to present across hundreds of companies.
“do you think uh the companies that pay their employees better have a higher return to their stocks I'd like to think yes so the empirical answer is no not much”
People treat discussions about divisive issues as battlefields rather than collaborative processes, preventing the formation of new joint understandings of shared problems.
“people people treat discussions as if it's a battlefield it's it's not a battlefield at the end of the day uh we should come up with a with a new joint understanding of what we are and people are just not not collaborative in this process”
When organizations foster goodwill and utility embracing through intrinsic motivation, employees who love going to work are healthier and more productive—creating a situation where everybody wins.
“the thing about it it's it's good for everybody people who go to a workplace where they love going to are healthier and more productive right everybody wins but nevertheless lots of organizations are not doing it the right way”
Bureaucracy kills motivation more than almost anything else because it sends the message 'we don't trust you, we don't care about your time, and we don't want you to do anything different'—when employees see an opportunity for improvement, bureaucracy tells them not to pursue it.
“bureaucracy by the way is one of the things that kills motivation almost nothing kills motivation as much as bureaucracy because when we when we add bureaucracy we basically say to people we don't trust you we don't care about your time and we don't want you to do anything different you see a opportunity for improvement don't do it just do uh just do what's easy without uh tackling the bureaucracy”
In discussing Israel-Hamas conflict, avoiding arguments about history (1948, 1967) and moral superiority, and instead asking 'what do you want to happen next' and then following up with probing questions about implementation, reveals that most people have not thought through the consequences of their preferred solution.
“I basically say look I don't want to talk about history I don't want to talk about 194 48 and 67 and so on not now I also don't want to talk about who is more morally wrong it's just not a healthy discussion I want to talk what do we do from here forward what do we think that is the right thing to do from here for and they say fine and I said what what would you like to see happen and usually people say I want an immediate ceasefire and I want Israel to leave Gaza and I say okay I can't Grant it but let's say you got this let's say you got those two what's next”
Companies that provide better health benefits do not have higher stock returns, as exemplified by McDonald's which provides limited healthcare but has experienced 12x stock appreciation.
“what about health benefits the companies that give better health benefits have higher return to their stock well I I mean I'm cheating here I know the answer is no because MC McDonald's has gone up 12x and doesn't have healthc are”
The book Misbelief is structured not as a comprehensive solutions manual but with 'hopefully helpful' sections throughout, reflecting the author's view that adequate solutions to misbelief require changes much broader and bigger than psychological interventions—they require systemic and institutional reform.
“in the last seven years I have been tracking how companies treat their when I when I started writing this book in The Proposal I wrote it there'll be a chapter on Solutions and I don't have a chapter on solution I have these little sections in the middle called hopefully helpful because I think that the real solutions have to be much broader and bigger”
Ariely's professional focus is on promoting small improvements in human behavior and systems, with the view that while big improvements are difficult, small improvements are possible across many domains including sleep, savings, conflict, and other areas.
“I view my world my my job as um trying to promote small improvements big improvements are tough small improvements are possible I think that within the realm of social science there's lots of opportunities for small improvements we can get people to sleep slightly better we can get people to save a bit more to fight a little Le”
There is one way to be rational, but many ways to be irrational; this variety of paths to irrationality is central to understanding why people with similar evidence and backgrounds arrive at radically different beliefs.
“there's there's lots of ways to be there's one way to be rational and there many ways to be irrational”
Holocaust deniers and October 7th deniers are increasingly merging into a single community of people questioning whether these historical events ever happened, which is disturbing not primarily because of the denial itself but because these deniers appear to be normal, educated Americans rather than outsiders.
“Holocaust deniers are now merging with the October 7th deniers people who are saying are questioning whether these events ever really happened and when I and that in itself is disturbing but what I find more disturbing is when I hear these people and I see them interviewed other than the words that come out of their mouth their background their education it just doesn't fit you think these look like normal Americans”
Ariely's latest book is titled 'Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things'.
“my my latest book called misbelief exactly uh because of that”
The interviewer credits Dan Ariely's book 'Predictably Irrational' as inspiration for writing his own book, and Ariely's agent reached out to the interviewer suggesting he write because he 'reminds me of Professor Ariely'.
“your book uh predictably I think it was predictably irrational was motivation for me to write the book because your agent reached out to me and said you remind me of Professor arieli and you should write a book so thanks for that”
Ariely became more anxious as he aged, experiencing a 'productive anxiety' between ages 30 and 50, and now at his current age being 'anxious about everything', which he attributes partly to natural aging and partly to global conditions making these times especially anxiety-inducing.
“I was sort of sleepwalking through life from sort of 0 to 30 I think from 30 to 50 I had the right amount of anxiety I call it productive anxiety and now I'm anxious about everything but it feels these times feel especially uh anxious”