Steven Pinker: Progress, Despite Everything

Every developed country increased social spending as a percentage of GDP over the 20th century, from about 1.5% baseline to a median of 22% for OECD countries, with all wealthy nations clustering between 20-30% redistribution, indicating a convergent commitment to social safety nets.

“in the 20th century Every developed country every rich country I went on a screen of social spending and so that from a baseline about 1.5 percent of GDP redistributed to children and the poor and the elderly and the sick now the Median oacd between redistributes about 22% of its prosperity And all which countries are in a band from about 20% of GDP to about 30% of GDP”

Journalism creates a systematically distorted worldview because it reports events that go wrong but not things that go right; if more things go right every year, there is no way to learn about it from newspapers, creating false perceived decline in world conditions.

“there's first of all just sheer incredulity because the you of the world that you get from Journalism is so different from the view of the world when you get from data because journalism reports everything that goes wrong It doesn't report things that go right, and so if they're more things that go right every year. There's just no way of Learning about it if you know the world from the papers”

Progress does not happen by itself as a force of the universe; rather, it requires deliberate application of policy and technology, as demonstrated by environmental improvements resulting from specific policies like the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act (1970) and technologies like catalytic converters and scrubbers.

“the fact that there was so much good both economic and ecological news... it doesn't mean that we can sit back and relax in the environment will clean itself up all by itself Quite the contrary we know why the environment got better combination of policy like the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act in the United States in 1970 and Technology, like catalytic converters and scrubbers and and clean energy so it doesn't happen by itself”

Inequality cannot be attributed to capitalism; it is a far more fundamental mechanism evident across all domains of human creativity, where Pareto distributions emerge (e.g., few athletes shoot most baskets, few artists produce most hits, small number of planets have most mass).

“it doesn't look like Inequality can be placed at the feet of capitalism. It seems to me to be a far more intractable problem than that... there seems to be this proclivity towards the unequal distribution of phenomena, not just monetary phenomena, but I mean if you look at virtually every domain of human Endeavor that's associated with creativity you get a preeto distribution of productivity, you know I mean a small number of masked ball players Shoot the my vast majority of the hoops and a small number of record recording artists record the majority of the hits a small number of planets have most of the mass”

Human beings have complex psychology with both good and bad motives (empathy, reason, self-control alongside tribalism, authoritarianism, greed); progress depends on institutional design that channels the better angels against the worse impulses.

“we have a number of ugly motives But we also have some modicum of empathy we have self-control We have cognitive Processes that allow us to reason we have language that allows us to share our ideas and if we manage to channel those with the right institutions with a commitment to free speech to democracy to science to empirical testing Then we can mobilize the better angels of our nature”

Different types of relationships (authority-subordinate, equal, exchange, community of interest) are coordination games with different payoff structures, and confusion about which game is being played leads to mild awkwardness or in extreme cases shock.

“we subdivide our relationships into different types a thority Subordinate Equal sharing and Community of interest Exchange when these can take place over different [1:25:26] resources over money over sex over aid and We don't know we are very attentive to which one holds between in a given dyad, you know particular time Each one is a different coordination game as the game theorist would put it where we both again We're on in the same cell if we're on the same page, but if we're yet discrepant understandings Then there can be in mild form, awkwardness embarrassment in the extreme case shock”

The 'dual relationship problem' in professional ethics arises because one cannot have a purely one-dimensional relationship with someone, and when multiple relationship types (e.g., professional and sexual, or clinical and friendly) are simultaneously played, the aims and values become blurry and confusion increases.

“the dual relationship problem also means that you end up playing at least two games with different outcomes and so the aims become blurry and the degree of Conceptual confusion also increases”

The world has objectively gotten better across multiple dimensions: poverty rates have fallen at $1.90, $3.80, and $7.60 daily thresholds between 2000 and 2012, child mortality in Africa now matches 1952 European rates, illiteracy and violent crime have declined, warfare deaths have decreased, and people have more leisure time and access to luxuries.

“the rate of poverty is diminishing at an amazing rate Right, we have poverty Considering it at a dollar ninety a day between 2000 and 2012”

Nations have become wealthy and more generous with social welfare partly because education and health are public goods from which hiring employers benefit, making investment in universal education and health insurance economically rational even from a purely self-interested perspective.

“There are a number of reasons why every wealthy country has a social safety net... partly It's because some of the investment in some of the redistribution is investment. It's a public good It's really good If the entire population is educated or everyone including the people who are hiring them”

The wars that occurred after the 18th century became shorter and less frequent, but the ones that did occur became deadlier due to improved weaponry and social organization allowing countries to conscript and deploy large armies, particularly driven by counter-Enlightenment ideologies of nationalism.

“Wars actually got shorter and less frequent are the ones that did occur got deadlier. That is countries got more efficient at killing more people in a shorter amount of time partly because of [54:39] weaponry but also just because of social organization being able to can script large numbers of Young men and then send them to the battlefield as cannon fodder Until and a lot of that was driven actually by counter Enlightenment ideologies of nationalism which mention both both world wars”

The spectacular economic growth of India and China after liberalizing their economies, contrasted with the disaster of North Korea (and relative prosperity of South Korea), demonstrates that political systems—not geography, resources, culture, or language—differentiate economic outcomes.

“the other you mentioned that the existence of human progress is a blow to doctrinaire Marxist which is certainly true because he has seen the spectacular economic growth of India and China when they liberalized their economies and the disasters of say North Korea with a beautiful Control group South Korea same geography same resources. Same culture. Same language same history What differentiates them is their political system and South Korea is a much better place to live”

Poverty and civil war reinforce each other through a vicious cycle: poverty makes civil war more likely (by lowering opportunity cost of joining militias), and war destroys development by eliminating schools, institutions, and markets, creating a poverty-war trap.

“Poverty makes civil war more likely and vice versa because war is system called development in Reverse And that nothing is worse for an economy. Then if schools are being blown up and people pulled out of their offices and shot and Institutions destroyed”

Academics often make the mistake of talking down to popular audiences when crossing over from academia to popular writing, assuming audiences are stupid; instead, the key is to assume the audience is intellectually capable but lacks specific knowledge.

“the mistake that academics often make when they Try to reach a broad audience as they talk down. They assume that their audience is not as ladies They are so the key is assume that your audience is your intellectual here But they happen not to know some stuff that you know”

As people become wealthier, values shift hierarchically: short-term survival concerns (food, shelter, electricity) are replaced by longer-term concerns (environment, rights), enabling both environmental protection and social welfare expansion.

“when you get more prosperous, then you willing to spring for the cleaner energy and you can afford the clean your energy and as you mentioned your values tend to climb a hierarchy and more long term Future concerns loom larger in your value system”

Hierarchical/authoritarian systems have a bias toward taboo violations and puritanical enforcement; challenging authority is treated as inherent evil rather than as a legitimate form of speech, contrasting sharply with democratic values that treat criticism of leaders as morally obligatory.

“Puritanical Emphasis on the pure essence that anyone who contaminates the body politic must be expelled Well, you see that with taboo violations in absolutely tribal system wealth or terian ISM the challenging a Legitimate Authority is itself inherently evil”

The Enlightenment concept of a nation-state based on a social contract and agreement (rather than blood and soil nationalism) is opposed by 19th-century Romantic nationalism and 'blood and soil' ideology, creating a foundational divide in political thought.

“I consider this to be one of the key ideas of Coming out of the Enlightenment Opposed by the counter enlightenment of the 19th century by the romantics I mean the nationalists that be that a state a Group of people under the jurisdiction of a government but held together Basically by a social contract by agreement”

What constitutes an 'in-group' is highly elastic and culturally constructed; successful nations capitalize on the psychological tendency toward in-group favoritism by expanding the definition of the in-group to encompass all citizens, treating the nation as a single virtual tribe.

“We form coalition's that cut across skin color and a successful country is one that capitalizes on that elasticity form a virtual tribe which is simply every citizen of the country and that ultimately every citizen in larger units including the humanity including All the world”

The Enlightenment represents a key intellectual movement grounded in humanism—the idea that human well-being, life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness are intrinsic values regardless of theological commitments—rather than fundamentally dependent on Judeo-Christian tradition.

“here's the Question I have about that. Is that like it seemed to me so that the people who formulated the Declaration of Independence, for example accept it as self-evident that human beings were intrinsically valuable... and There's some recognition there as far as I'm concerned of Intrinsic value Outside of a rational argument”

Child mortality rates in Africa are now the same as they were in Europe in 1952, a statistic Peterson regards as absolutely miraculous.

“the child mortality rate in Africa is now the same as it was in Europe in 1952, which is a statistic that I just regard is absolutely miraculous”

Wealthy nations have the means and political will to both protect the environment and maintain economic growth; the wealthiest nations have done the most to clean up their environment in the last decade because they can afford it, and this gives hope to the environmental movement.

“the nations that have done the most to clean up their environment in the last ten years are the wealthiest nations because they can afford it”

Religious tribalism and sectarianism (European Wars of Religion, genocide commands in Hebrew Bible, slavery, rape, torture) show that appeal to scripture and religious doctrine does not reliably ground universal human rights; Enlightenment ethics emerged partly as a reaction to the failure of religion to prevent atrocities.

“the enlightened came about as a reaction to see what happens if you ground even worth in religious doctrines such as the European Wars of Religion Parker unprecedented carnage and together with the burning of heretics If you're going back to to have scriptures particularly in the in the Hebrew Bible God commands the Israelites to engage in one genocide after another There is no Prohibition against slavery, there's no prohibition against rape. There's no prohibition against grisly Forms of torture”

The formation of the United Nations in 1945, subsequent Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and Sustainable Development Goals represent a consolidation of Enlightenment ideals into global institutions that transcend national boundaries and religious/racial divides.

“occurred after 1945 with the formation of the United Nations with a kind of unprecedented Universalism the kind of global consciousness including all races all religions Still not of course universally accepted and even as an aspiration about that's something that's pretty new in human history”

Cold War proxy wars in Asia, Africa, and South America (1960s-1980s) killed far more people than recent wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria combined, but are forgotten when people assess current global violence, creating a false sense of unprecedented danger.

“how awful these 60 seventies and eighties were in terms of right? It was also the fact that well in Africa and in South America, I would say in particular Those proxy wars also being also ideological Wars”

The American founding document (Declaration of Independence) was an experiment in conceptual nation-building based on first principles (life, liberty, pursuit of happiness) rather than ethnicity, and this created ongoing tensions but ultimately succeeded better than other historical nation-building attempts.

“the American experiment was an experiment in conceptual Nation-building. It's like here's a creative principles that we can all agree on despite our differences and to the degree that we decide that we will agree on these principles then were the same enough we can cooperate”

The mathematical concept of the 'most important graph in the world' (hockey stick curve of GDP per capita) shows exponential acceleration of prosperity beginning around 1895, driven by industrialization and technological progress, representing a fundamental transformation of human material conditions.

“It's what they call the most miraculous most important graph in the world and shows this unbelievable Acceleration if you prosperity basically kicking in exponentially around 1895”

People in the top 10% or even top 1% of income distribution often experience substantial reversals of fortune, and very few people are not at economic risk of disadvantage at some point in their lives, creating a rational basis for supporting social safety nets even for the wealthy.

“it's not that uncommon for people who are in the top 10% say of the economic distribution Or even in the top 1% to suffer a substantial reversal of fortune at some point in their life and it's a very rare person a very very rare person who isn't at Economic danger of economic disadvantage at some point in their life”

Warfare has declined dramatically since 1945; great power wars no longer occur, and wars have become less frequent, shorter, and less deadly since 1945, constituting the first time in human history that systematic movement away from warfare has been documented.

“if you look at the percentage of years that the great powers they were at war with each other it actually goes goes down starting in the 7th 17th century Great power wars don't even occur anymore. We haven't had one for 65 years”

The United States is at the low end of OECD social spending at 20%, while Canada is actually lower, though this excludes employer-provided benefits (retirement, health insurance) that in the US are counted as private spending but in other countries are government spending.

“I have the United States is at the low end Actually Canada to my surprise our home and native land is actually a bit lower than the United States. I don't Even know Canada it would appear to have a more generous welfare state than the United States and in fact The United States would be even higher if you added all of the socialism that is done through employers”

An area twice the size of the United States has greened in the last 15 to 20 years partly because of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, which allows plants to keep their stomata closed and survive in more semi-arid areas.

“there is a paper published in Nature not so long ago Stating for example that an area twice the size of the US has greened in the last 15 or 20 years that actually happened to be as a consequence of increased carbon dioxide because Plants can keep their pores closed if there's more carbon dioxide and so they can live in more semi-arid areas”

Societies that are ethnically homogeneous have historically built more generous welfare states, while more ethnically diverse societies are comparatively stingy; the US is 'somewhat stingy' relative to Europe, partly because of ethnic diversity affecting in-group solidarity.

“It's been noted that some of the generous welfare states of europe have least historically occurred in countries that are ethnically more homogeneous I certainly racially more homogeneous than the United States which tends to be a somewhat stingy. ER”

In cultures with high rates of cousin marriage, people maintain stronger loyalty to blood relatives than to the nation-state, making nation-building difficult; conversely, societies that successfully form a 'virtual tribe' of all citizens (like the US) decouple kinship from political identity.

“It has been noted that in cultures that have a lot of cousin marriage where you're related to People in your clan. It's rather hard to do nation building there like in Lincoln High Rock For example people don't have a sense of superordinate Loyalty to a coalition about their blood relatives”

Mastery of science and technology has been a major contributor to human well-being and progress; the mastery is complementary with—not opposed to—ethical and religious values in the development of civilization.

“I certainly believe that the mastery of Science and technology has been a major contributor to the furtherance of Human wellbeing”

Tenure (academic job security) and independent means of support are crucial for intellectual independence; most members of the 'intellectual dark web' have either tenure or book sales providing financial independence from institutional pressure.

“a certain Fortunate independence is part of it. You know that almost everyone in that group has their own Means of support I mean, you're a university professor obviously and that could be taken from you but I mean you have nine books and many of them are bestsellers and like you you have the means to Keep yourself operating as an independent being”