Will the Future be Abundant? Peter Diamandis vs. Peter Zeihan

A new species of rice is being developed that can have multiple crops per planting season, and soy (a protein plant rather than starch plant) is going to be a real game changer. Growing an entire cow just to get meat will eventually be seen as insane when you can just grow the protein needed for a good burger through cultivated meat.

“I I agree 100% with you, Peter. You know, it is we're seeing incredible we're seeing a new species of rice that are able to have multiple crops per per planting and for those who are concerned about GMO, listen, GMOs never killed anybody, but I can guarantee you it saved hundreds of millions of lives. I'm less interested in rice. Soy, I think is the one that's going to be the real game changer because it's a protein plant instead of a starch plant. We also have vertical farming and cultivated meats coming online. The idea that we have to eat food the way it's always been produced, in other words, to grow an entire cow to get access to meat is going to be seen as insane in the future”

The speaker is far more concerned about powerful individuals without restrictions on their actions than about powerful countries getting desperate. This is a different sort of problem.

“I am far more concerned about powerful individuals that maybe don't have restrictions on their actions than I am about powerful countries that are getting desperate. And that's a different sort of problem”

AI will ultimately become the best education system and best healthcare system available to both the poorest and wealthiest children via AI platforms.

“AI is going to be ultimately the best educating system and the best health care system will be available to the poorest child and the wealthiest child delivered by AI platforms.”

As of December of last year, half of the world's baby boomers had already retired and liquidated their savings, causing capital costs to triple and threatening to triple again in the next few years.

“As of December of last year, half of the world's baby boomers had already retired and they'd liquidated their savings. And so, we've seen capital costs triple. They're going to triple again in the next few years”

Diamandis disagrees with the need for a system 'breather'; AI and quantum technologies will allow re-engineering of supply chains faster than industrial-age methods, creating shortcuts that avoid multi-decade rebuilding; linear extrapolation of old timelines is incorrect when new technologies accelerate the process.

“the only thing I would say is it's a linear extrapolation to believe that re-engineering the supply chain will take as long as it has because we've got we've got capabilities coming from AI that are going to help us much more rapidly re-engineer. We have we haven't talked about quantum technologies coming down the pike that are going to be impacting material science and biology in an extraordinary fashion. So, I think if we were going to try and re-replicate the old school system we we've developed over the industrial military complex of the last century, yeah, it will take many, many decades. But I think we have shortcuts to be had based upon technology”

Democracy has blossomed over the last century: in 1900, about 1% of countries had universal voting rights; today, it's 96%.

“even democracy uh has blossomed over the last century. In 1900, about 1% of countries had universal uh voting rights. Today, it's 96%”

Over the last 123 years, we have seen World War I, World War II, the Spanish flu, the Vietnam War where 150 million people died needlessly, yet the world has gotten extraordinarily better by almost every measure. This is not a straight and linear path but one with ups and downs.

“over that 123 years, we've also seen World War I, World War II, the Spanish flu, the Vietnam War, 150 million people died needlessly in those conflicts, and yet the world has gotten extraordinarily better. Um this is not a straight and linear path. It is got ups and downs, ups and downs”

Global life expectancy has more than doubled over the last 70 years, from roughly 40 years old to now hitting 75.

“global life expectancy has more than doubled over the last uh 70 years years, from roughly 40 years old to now uh hitting 75”

The Cold War ended in 1992, and since then the United States in a series of ever more nationalist political contests has elected leaders wanting to dismantle globalization faster—the road and direction away from globalization is a strongly bipartisan issue.

“But the Cold War ended in '92, and ever since then, the United States in a series of ever more nationalist political contest has elected the guy who wants to do away with it faster. And the biggest difference between Trump and Biden when it comes to international economics is that Biden was able to hire a grammar checker. The road hasn't changed and this is a very strongly bipartisan issue”

Major shifts in economic models take at least a couple of decades and are messy. The shift from imperialism to globalization took the better part of five decades and gave us two world wars and the Great Depression.

“Major shifts in economic models take at least a couple of decades and they are messy. The shift from imperialism to globalization for example took the better part of five decades and gave us two world wars and the Great Depression”

Climate change is definitely a big issue, but predicting it on a zip-code basis is unrealistic because our math isn't good enough yet. The real problem is not having the tools to deal with it yet. Making solar panels requires seven times more energy than making aluminum, and we're probably going to lose most polysilicon production capacity when China breaks down, creating an industrial production bottleneck.

“climate change is definitely a big issue. Anyone who thinks they can predict it on a zip code by zip code basis, I think is a little crazy cuz our math just isn't that good yet. My concern isn't on this topic isn't so much that we don't have the tools. It's that we don't have the tools. Yeah, to deal with it yet. Uh I think the best example I can give you is what it takes to put up a solar panel. Uh aluminum is the most energy intensive of the primary industries that we have. If you look at steel and fertilizer and the rest. Taking raw silicon and turning it into a finished silicon panel requires seven times the energy that it takes to make the same volume of aluminum. And we're probably going to lose most of our capacity to produce polysilicon at scale when the Chinese break down”

Malevolent use of AI is the speaker's biggest concern over the next 1-5 years, with the 2024 election likely being patient zero. Loss of privacy is a countervailing force—it's hard to hide things more than ever. It will be a white hat versus black hat race with AI being used to detect malevolent AI usage. The question is whether human nature is ultimately good or bad; the speaker believes it's ultimately good, and entrepreneurs will solve problems because the world's largest problems are the world's biggest business opportunities.

“there's no question that we're going to see malevolent use of AI, and it's my biggest concern over the next 1 to 5 years. I think we're going to see the election be patient zero uh in this situation. I think, uh on the flip side, uh what's going on is uh what I would call loss of privacy uh is going to be a countervailing force. It's hard to hide things more than ever before. So, uh you know, it's going to be a white hat, black hat uh race in terms of AI being used to help determine uh malevolent AI's usage”

The oldest millennials turn 45 next year and are no longer 'the young bucks'; the next generation is small and 'kind of antisocial,' ending the environment that enabled rapid technological advancement.

“the oldest millennial, sorry millennials, turns 45 next year. They're no longer the young bucks. And the next generation down is small and to be perfectly blunt kind of antisocial. So, the environment that has allowed us to push the technological envelope so far, so fast, so consistently, it's already behind us”

GMOs have never killed anybody, but GMOs have saved hundreds of millions of lives. Genetic modification is both safe and essential for food security.

“GMOs never killed anybody, but I can guarantee you it saved hundreds of millions of lives”

For every healthy year added to human lifespan, it's worth 38 trillion dollars to the global economy according to a study from Harvard, London School of Business, and Oxford.

“The study done out of Harvard, London School of Business, and Oxford said that for every healthy year you add to the lifespan of humanity, it's worth 38 trillion dollars to the global economy”

Technology is a resource-liberating force that transforms scarcity into abundance over and over again—we used to kill whales for whale oil, then ravaged mountainsides, then drilled kilometers underground for oil, and now we have 8,000 times more energy hitting Earth's surface from the sun than we consume as a species in a year.

“Technology is a scarcity is a resource-liberating force. It transforms scarcity into abundance over and over again, right? We used to go kill whales to get whale oil to light our nights. Then we ravaged mountainsides. Then we drilled kilometers under the ground to get access to oil. And now we have 8,000 times more energy hitting the surface of this of the Earth from the sun than we consume as a species in a year”

Maternal mortality rates, women dying in pregnancy, over the last 20 years alone has dropped 34%.

“Maternal mortality rates, women dying in pregnancy, over the last 20 years alone has dropped 34%”

There is more time than most think for managing AI risks because chip production constraints will cause delays, and unlike previous technological revolutions, we are discussing AI ethics in real time (Congress held open sessions on AI ethics), which gives us better warning than before.

“I I think you can be a little bit more optimistic, Ms. Francis. Um We have a little bit more time than I think most people think. Uh if we have a problem with the chip production, which I think we're going to, that buys us a few more years right there. And the fact that we're already having these discussions, I mean, think about everything that is going on in the American Congress right now. What a mess it is. They still found a time over the last several weeks to have an open session about the ethics of artificial intelligence. So, unlike previous technological revolutions, where we come very late to the game, we're discussing this one as it unfolds”

In the 2040s, we will make it over the hump and double the size of the industrial plant; we will largely be immune to international shocks with local workers serving local markets using local resources; this will be the fastest economic growth in the history of Canada, Mexico, and the US, driven by breakdown of the old system.

“I think we're going to make it over the hump. I think we're going to succeed in doubling the size of the industrial plant. And I think we're going to make it through to when the millennials' kids enter the market and rebalance our demographics here. I don't think it's going to take till 2050. I think 2040 will be plenty of time and we will have a system where we are largely immune to international shocks and we have local workers serving local markets using local resources. And getting there is going to be the fastest economic growth in the history of Canada, Mexico, and the United States. It's not a good story, it's a great story. It's a story of growth.”

Global child mortality has precipitously dropped from 43% in 1800s down to under 4% today.

“global child mortality has precipitously dropped from 43% in 1800s down to under 4% today”

The 2011 Pew Research Center study showed for the first time that more Americans thought their children would be worse off than themselves, and that trend has continued.

“In 2011, the Pew Research Center conducted a study that showed for the first time that more Americans thought that their children were going to be worse off than themselves than thought otherwise. That trend has continued”

5 billion people are now internet-connected, and access to electricity has exploded, providing more safety and more access to food alongside all other abundance indicators.

“Uh you know, we have 5 billion internet-connected individuals. Access to electricity has exploded. You know, uh we are have more safety. Uh we have more access to food”

Peter D and Peter Z fundamentally agree on what technology can do and what its pace can achieve; their big disagreement is whether the system is sustainable in the near term or if we must go through a drop before starting back up. Demographics clearly means we're going to have to take a breather, and supply chains cannot continue this decade without massive reorganization.

“Well, you know, we actually don't disagree on what technology can do. We don't disagree really on what the pace of technology can exchange or can achieve. Our big disagreement is whether the system we're in today is sustainable in the near term future or not or if we have to go through a bit of a drop before we start back up. I would argue that demographics very clearly means that we're going to have to take a breather here. I don't see a way around that. I don't see how manufacturing supply chains that allow technology to apply at scale can continue this decade without a massive reorganization”

The six Ds of exponential technology: when you digitize anything, in early days it's deceptive (progress invisible); 30 doublings later it's a billionfold bigger and becomes disruptive, then dematerializing, demonetizing, and democratizing.

“I talk about the six Ds of exponential. When you digitize anything in the early days of its growth it's deceptive. 30 doublings later it's a billionfold bigger and it's disruptive and it's dematerializing, demonetizing, and democratizing”

Textiles are an unsexy technology but were the root of industrialization over a century ago. Supply chains have historically followed cost: from Appalachia (women with sewing machines) to Mexico (NAFTA) to India/China (WTO). During COVID we ran out of clothes. Some facilities in North Carolina have now been built that are 2 acres under one roof, processing raw cotton to finished clothes with a staff of two, producing cheaper end products than Bangladesh. This shows what re-industrialization will look like when incentives shift.

“Um textiles, you know, very unsexy technology. It was the root of industrialization over a century ago. The model has always been the same and up until the '90s in the United States, it was women in Appalachia with sewing machines. Well, then we got NAFTA and the model moved to Mexico where the women with the sewing machines were cheaper. And then we had the WTO where it moved to India and China where the women with the sewing sewing machines were cheaper. Then we had COVID and suddenly we didn't have clothes. So, some enterprising folks in North Carolina built some facilities that are 2 acres under one roof that take raw cotton, clean it, turn it into thread and then yarn and then cloth and then clothes and the end product is cheaper than what you get out of Bangladesh per per unit and these places have a staff of two”

Russia and China are two major powers that will vanish from the world over the next generation or two; the question is whether it happens fast or slow. When countries feel cornered with nothing to lose, chances of them doing something they normally wouldn't rises. However, China doesn't command top technology—it imports all server time and chips needed for AI—and the U.S. is already building walls in that space. Russia's KGB leadership considered spreading nuclear weapons to salt the earth in 1987 but decided not to. Even in the darkest hour, the desire to end the human condition doesn't exist.

“we've got two major powers, the Russians and the Chinese, who are going to vanish from the world over the course of the next generation or two. The question is whether it happens fast or slow. And when countries feel they're in a corner and they have nothing to lose, the chances of them doing something that they normally wouldn't consider, of course, rises very high. Uh but let me give you two examples of why I don't think that their decline is going to be catastrophic for the rest of us. In the case of China, they don't command the top technology. They import all the server time, they import all the chips that are necessary for them to access AI at scale. And we're already in the early stages of the Biden administration and whoever follows Biden probably working to build a wall in that space. That limits the damage that can be done from a strategic point of view. The Russians. Back in 1987, when the KGB realized that the end was nigh... they basically had a meeting where they decided whether or not they wanted to spread nuclear weapons around the world and salt the earth... And they decided the answer was no”

We're seeing a boom in multiple sectors: healthspan/healthcare/biotech for adding 20+ healthy years; AI as the most transformative technology; semiconductor supply chain diversification (currently fragile); agriculture innovation including digital gardening and genetic hacking to increase yield with less fertilizer; vertical farming and cultivated meat to replace traditional animal agriculture.

“So Andy, I'm investing my money, my venture fund money, my time in two areas. Healthspan, healthcare, biotech. I think you know, there's people would give an extraordinary amount of their wealth to add 20 plus healthy years and AI”

Data-driven optimism: there is huge consistent data showing upward trend over the past century, and technology is accelerating, not slowing down; exponential data-driven evidence supports abundance.

“I believe in data-driven optimism and the data has been consistent up into the right uh for the past century. And technology, which has made that transition, is not slowing down. It's accelerating”

The best way to make people peaceful is to give them access to prosperity. If your kids have access to food, water, energy, healthcare, and education, they won't want to kill themselves or put on suicide vests. Technology provides this access.

“the number one way to allow people to become more peaceful um is to give them access to prosperity. And technology does that. If you have access to all the you know, if your kids have access to the food, water, energy, health care, education, um they're not going to want to go kill themselves and put on a suicide vest”

The risk is not that we won't push the technological envelope forward; it's that we're going to lose too much of what we already have and backslide. Whether we retool fast enough will be determined in the next 5 years. North America needs to double the size of the industrial plant; if we fail, we lose a lot of what we already have.

“The risk here isn't that we're not going to push the envelope forward. I'd say that's almost impossible. The risk here is we're going to lose too much of what we have and we backslide a little bit. And we're going to find out the answer to that question in just the next 5 years about whether or not we can retool fast enough. North America basically needs to double the size of the industrial plant. And if we fail that, then we lose a lot of what we already have”

We're living through one of the most atypical periods in human history, and many have drawn linear forecasts from it, which has never been true and is not true now. We're entering a period of extreme change, and the goal is to help people understand the size of the icebergs ahead and where they are so we can navigate around them.

“We've been living through one of the most atypical periods in human history, and a lot of us have drawn linear for forecasts as to where that takes us. That's never been true, and it's not true now. We're entering a period of extreme change, and my goal is to get people to understand that the size of the icebergs ahead of us and where they are, so we can navigate around them”

There will be two kinds of companies at the end of this decade: those fully utilizing AI and those out of business. AI will have the most disruptive and reinventive impact, functioning as your partner, co-pilot, inspiration, and collaborator across everything, allowing you to fulfill dreams and giving access to knowledge.

“There going to be two kinds of companies at the end of this decade, those fully utilizing AI and those out of business. It's going to be that black and white. And so, we're going to see AI as you know, the closest analogy for me is Jarvis from Iron Man, where it's your partner, it's your co-pilot, it's your inspiration, it's your collaborator across everything. Allowing you to fulfill your dreams, giving you access to not information but knowledge”

An abundance mindset and optimistic mindset is probably the most important thing for delivering a future for our children that is better than our past, because an individual's mindset is the single most important tool they have for solving problems and creating a better world.

“an individual's mindset is probably the single most important tool they have uh to solving problems and creating a better world. And our uh our inherent mindset that we evolved over 100,000 years is one of uh fear and scarcity. Uh but that doesn't put you in a very good position to solve problems. Uh having an abundance mindset, an optimistic mindset is probably the most important thing for delivering a future for our children that is better than our past”

The first past the post electoral system produces two very big tent parties with shifting factions as technology, demographics, and geopolitics shift. The US has done this seven times before. During transition moments we get two things: personalities from outside who stir the pot, and civil society takes over governmental processes because government becomes unable to do it itself. This dynamic is loud and messy, but it's pushing in the right direction.

“We have a first past the post electoral system, which means we have two very big tent parties with lots of factions and the factions move around over time as technology and demographics and geopolitics shift. And if you think in the last 40 years, a lot's gone down. It would make sense for us to rearrange our system now. This is the seventh time we have done this. We will get through it... At moments of transition like this, we get two things. Personalities from the outside that just stir the pot... And civil society takes over the governmental process because the government becomes unable to do it itself”

Climate change is a solvable problem that we are better positioned to solve today with current technology than 20-30 years ago.

“our ability to bring the Earth back into balance is something fundamentally critical. And I think I would rather be fighting that battle today with the tech we have versus, you know, 20 or 30 years ago”

The environment that has allowed technology to advance so far, so fast, so consistently is already behind us; we are seeing adjustments throughout the tech space with layoffs, shutdowns, and focusing more on manufacturing rather than idea generation because we are losing China at the same time.

“the environment that has allowed us to push the technological envelope so far, so fast, so consistently, it's already behind us. And we're already seeing those adjustments throughout the tech space with layoffs, with shutdowns, with focusing more in manufacturing now rather than idea generation, because we're realizing we're losing China at the same time”