Justin Huhn: Exploring the Generational Bull Case for Uranium
What this covers
Uranium expert Justin Huhn, Founder & Publisher of Uranium Insider, joins Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick on the show to discuss the unfolding generational bull case for uranium and the entire uranium and nuclear power generation sector. We explore the cyclical nature of the uranium market, current supply and demand dynamics, and the impact of geopolitical tensions. Justin provides valuable insights on the increasing interest in nuclear energy as a clean power source, driven by rising global electricity demand and technological advancements. He sheds light on the potential for significant market developments by 2029-2030, the importance of long-term contracts, and the investment opportunities emerging from the ongoing and increasingly robust supply-demand imbalance.
00:00 Introduction and Greetings 00:16 Hurricane Experience and Weather Patterns 01:08 Introducing Guest: Justin Huhn 02:50 Justin Huhn's Background and Entry into Uranium Market 04:57 Understanding the Uranium Market Dynamics 07:24 Impact of Fukushima and Market Recovery 20:16 Technological Advancements in Nuclear Energy 26:29 Growing Demand for Electricity and Nuclear Energy's Role 35:18 Uranium Processing and Conversion 35:50 Enrichment and Fabrication 36:59 Global Market Dynamics 37:58 US Nuclear Industry Challenges 38:46 Geopolitical Impacts on Uranium Supply 48:32 Investment Opportunities in Uranium 54:51 Market Volatility and Investment Strategies 01:01:05 Future Outlook and Conclusion
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Justin Hune argues that uranium is entering a multi-year bull market driven by AI-powered electricity demand growth, supply constraints from geopolitical bifurcation, and a paradigm shift toward nuclear as essential baseload clean energy, creating asymmetric investment opportunity for patient, diversified investors willing to tolerate volatility.
- Electricity demand is accelerating 2-3x faster than historical projections due to AI data centers, EVs, and electrification in developing nations, while uranium supply responds on 5-10 year cycles, creating persistent undersupply
- Western supply chain bifurcation from Russia following Ukraine invasion forces domestic fuel cycle development (enrichment, conversion) that structurally supports higher uranium prices for years
- Nuclear is transitioning from climate policy afterthought to geopolitical energy security imperative and grid necessity, with bipartisan support and reactor life extensions creating 3-4% compound annual demand growth vs. historical 1-2%
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Nuclear energy is responsible for approximately 10% of global electricity generation and nearly 20% of US electricity generation, making it one of the world's largest and most important electricity sources, yet public awareness is dominated by fear-based pop culture references like The Simpsons rather than scientific understanding.
“nuclear energy and this was was and is you know almost 10% or possibly even a little bit more at this point of global electricity is produced by nuclear energy it's almost 20% in the United States and I had no idea”
When measured by lives lost per kilowatt hour produced, nuclear is the safest electricity generation method ever conceived, significantly safer than solar, wind, coal, or natural gas, with nuclear waste volume vastly overstated and zero historical accidents involving civilian nuclear waste storage.
“nuclear energy if you if you measure safety based on let's say lives lost per however you want to measure it kilowatt hour produced it's the safest electricity that's ever been conceived period the waste is drastically overstated in terms of the problematic nature of it it's very very small amount of waste that's produced by nuclear and it's highly regulated there's never been an accident with nuclear nuclear waste in the history of of Civilian nuclear energy”
The United States, despite being the world's largest nuclear market with 25% of global uranium demand, produces less than 1 million pounds of uranium annually (projected 500,000-1,000,000 lbs for 2024) while consuming approximately 45 million pounds, creating a structural supply gap that incentivizes domestic fuel cycle development.
“the United States is the largest nuclear Market in the world with about 25% of annual uh Global demand for Uranium we produce basically nothing and that's starting to recover the gears are turning on Supply in the United States but 2024 we'll see less than a million pounds probably half a million pounds uh between half million million pounds produced in a single year in the United States this year and will consume about 45 million pounds of uranium”
Nuclear energy is now recognized by the environmental left as a zero-carbon electricity source essential for the 'energy transition,' representing a fundamental paradigm shift from nuclear as environmental liability to nuclear as environmental necessity.
“the environmental left is recognizing nuclear as a low carbon or zero carbon electricity source and therefore vital for the quote unquote energy transition”
Germany's Energiewende (energy transition) policy involved investing roughly half a trillion dollars into wind and solar over 15 years but failed to produce expected electricity output, leading Germany to shut down its last 3 nuclear reactors approximately 18 months ago (from July 2024) and subsequently increase coal production substantially following the Nord Stream pipeline destruction.
“Germany basically decided to um engage in an enery energy policy that was driven by ideals rather than by physics and they invested half of a trillion dollars into wind and solar over the past 15 years a program called Energy vend and that did not produce the electricity that they had hoped it would...they shut off their last reactors the last three reactors I believe about 18 months ago and since then they've had to drastically increase their coal production and they traed they traded the environment”
Japan imports approximately 90%+ of its energy needs in the form of natural gas, coal, and uranium, but can store decades worth of potential energy in the form of nuclear fuel rods in a small warehouse, making uranium vastly more efficient than fuel imports from a supply security perspective.
“a country like Japan that has very little energy resources and imports what 90 something percent I believe of of their energy needs in terms of natural gas and coal uh uranium things like that um um they can store decades worth of energy let's call it potential in the form of nuclear fuel rods in a small Warehouse right and that is so much more secure than having to rely on a ship full of coal arriving every single day at the port to keep the lights on”
Uranium developers require long-term supply contracts to de-risk project financing for large capital projects ($600M-$700M+), meaning they will not voluntarily reduce prices and will only sign contracts at levels that support development economics, creating a structural price floor for uranium.
“the development projects they have to have a certain amount of their forward production secured to long-term contracts to drisk the financing and they're not going to do that at low prices okay so it's a sellers market right now the current producers and the developing projects have the upper hand...the producers are not going to voluntarily drop their pricing because they just went through a decade and a half of Hell to arrive at this moment in time where finally the tables have turned and they can make some money”
The West's over-reliance on globalized supply chains (including Russian uranium conversion and enrichment) combined with optimistic assumptions about post-Cold War stability has left the US and Europe vulnerable to energy supply shocks when geopolitical relationships deteriorate.
“we've been able to rely on on Russia uh and we've been able to rely in Canada and Kazakhstan and Australia and Namibia and all of our uh all of our Global Partners...but of course seeing geopolitical tensions arise seeing supply chain interruptions from covid from from war whatever it might be puts the Grid at risk it literally can put the Grid at risk...the world is De globalizing a little bit bit but it's been a global market...how did we allow that to happen...Germany uh was caught on the back foot...all the and and oil from Russia...we really let this thing go for too long and really had too much faith in in Gorbachev's policy”
Global electricity demand growth expectations have doubled from 7-8% over 10 years (Dominion Energy's forecast 2 years ago) to 15%+ (more than doubling in next 10 years in Dominion's recent revision), driven primarily by AI data center build-out and AI compute requirements.
“if you look at the most recent uh quarterly conference call for Dominion energy that is an opera in the United States they operate a number of nuclear reactors and have also other sources of electricity just two years ago Dominion's 10-year plan saw electricity demand for their utility growing I think it was seven or 8% was what they put out two years ago they revised that recently and in the most recent quarterly call they're expecting electricity demand for Dominion themselves to more than double in the next 10 years”
There are currently 56-57 nuclear reactors under construction globally, with approximately half in China, but the most significant market shift is occurring in the OECD (which contains 70% of world's reactor fleet) where countries have previously avoided reactor construction for 20-25 years and are now restarting reactor builds and pursuing life extensions to 80+ years, with discussion of 100-year lifespans.
“there's 56 or 57 reactors under construction right now almost half of those are being built currently in China but the market that's most interesting to me is really in the Western World the oecd because they have about 70% of the of the world's reactors and they also have not been building D reactors over the last 20 25 years that market is starting to shift where we're not only seeing Life Extensions for existing plants that most plants and most places in the world get an initial 40-year license to operate but they can safely operate for 80 plus years uh there's even talk of potentially having reactors in United States go out to 100 years”
Russia is the largest global provider of both uranium conversion and enrichment services, and following the Ukraine invasion, Western utilities have largely (though not entirely) voluntarily stopped engaging in new contracts with Russian suppliers, despite still receiving deliveries from long-term contracts signed before the conflict.
“Russia is the largest provider of both conversion and enrichment globally and there has been somewhat of a bifurcation of this Market since the invasion of Ukraine the Western utilities have largely not entirely but largely voluntarily stopped doing business with Russia so that's not to say that they're not still receiving deliveries of contracts they signed years ago but engaging in new business signing new contracts with with Russia”
Amazon acquired Talon's data center facility adjacent to the Susquehanna nuclear plant in Pennsylvania earlier in 2024, and there is discussion that one of the plant's two reactors may be disconnected from the grid and dedicated entirely to powering the Amazon data center.
“the the direct link between you know data centers and nuclear was the Amazon deal with Talon right where you know they they took over Talon's data center right adjacent to the nuclear plant that Talon operates...one of the two reactors at that power plant is literally going to be disconnected from the grid and serving only this data center right”
When large institutional investors (billion-dollar plus funds) enter the uranium sector, they typically bypass fundamental analysis and instead place money in the top 3 most liquid stocks because of limited sector liquidity, causing downstream smaller-cap and mid-cap uranium stocks (100-300 stocks with market caps from a few million to $500M) to move violently when ETFs holding them receive inflows.
“if funds that are you know billion dollars and larger they have a hard time doing anything in the sector now as the liquidity improves...somebody's like okay I get the thesis I'd like to make an allocation to the sector all they do is they pull up their Bloomberg and put a little bit of money into the top three most liquid stocks they don't do they're not going to do some forward cash flow analysis...most of the smaller cap mid cap stocks you know anywhere from a couple million dollars up to let's say 500 million right and there's about hundred of those stocks in the uranium space...most of those are held by ETFs and when the money flows into the ETFs ETFs buy those underlying Holdings and they can move very very violently”
PG&E announced extended operation of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant in California, triggering an RFP (request for proposal) that demonstrated how tight the uranium physical market is by showing how long it took to fill, while Korea's utility came in with its own large RFP following the new administration's 180-degree reversal of nuclear phaseout policy.
“we had a couple of things that in my opinion really set the sector up to run pretty hard in the last 3 four months of the year and that was two pretty large rfps that came into the market one was from pg& that had just uh officially been announced they were going to be able to extend Diablo Canyon in California for five years...they came into the market and said hey we need a lot of uranium we need it now...it showed how tight the market was because of how long it took...then about two three months later the Koreans came in with a with a large RFP as well and Korea has done a 180 uh their their recent their newest Administration has completely done a 180 they canceled their nuclear phaseout project they restarted a construction of two reactors”
Nuclear industry has done a poor job advocating for itself over the past 20 years, allowing misconceptions to persist despite strong safety and environmental records; this poor PR enabled anti-nuclear sentiment despite strong empirical evidence, contributing to the policy paralysis that lasted from 2011-2020.
“I think the nuclear industry has also not done a great job of of of working its own PR in in the last 20 years it's it's pretty astounding how how wrong some of the takes on nuclear are”
Uranium demand is relatively easy to model compared to other commodity sectors because there is no OPEC-like cartel that can unilaterally shift supply (Kazakhstan comes closest but cannot meet production targets), and demand is derived from a fixed, predictable base (number of operating reactors × fuel requirements) that cannot be easily substituted or deferred.
“the demand is is relatively easy to model out compared to some other sectors right like oil you always have this this unforeseen situation with OPC what is OPEC going to do and that can move the market substantially just just from an OPEC meeting saying they're going to increase or they're going to decrease right you don't really have that type of influence in this sector Kazakhstan might be the might be the closest thing to OPEC for Uranium but they've got all sorts of supply issues”
The Fukushima Daiichi accident, while causing a meltdown and temporary negative sentiment, resulted in no loss of human life and triggered a positive systemic response: every country reassessed its nuclear fleet and implemented new safety protocols facilitated by the International Atomic Energy Agency, functioning as a beneficial 'gut check' for the industry.
“not a single person lost their life in that accident um it was bad it was a meltdown of course I'm not going to celebrate it but the Silver Lining is the entire world's nuclear reactor Fleet every single country reassessed their own fleets and implemented new safety protocols that largely was facilitated by the iae the international atomic energy agency so it was a it was kind of a gut check moment for the industry and it's turned into an incredible positive for the industry”
Hydroelectric power, though classified as 'clean' due to zero carbon emissions, destroys thousands of hectares of ecosystems and ecosystems through dam construction, whereas a nuclear facility occupies a vastly smaller physical footprint to generate equivalent 80+ years of electricity.
“hydroelectricity to scen as clean because it's non-carbon emitting it's unbelievably environmentally negatively impacting unbelievably so not too many people know how many thousands of hectares get flooded um and um uh ecosystems destroyed by the creation of dams that that build out um and um uh the hydroelectric power and it's something that is kind of a dirty little secret whereas on a footprint that is much much much smaller uh you can create the same 80 years of of energy coming from a nuclear facility”
TerraPower's Natrium molten salt reactor design, founded by Bill Gates, uses molten salt coolant instead of water, enabling reactor placement independent of water sources and incorporating thermal energy storage capability that allows the reactor to cycle up and down in output more easily, making it suitable as a complement to intermittent renewable sources.
“this reactor is a molten salt reactor and so it's actually the reactor core is cooled with molten salt rather than with water so you can place it in a you don't have to put it next to the ocean or next to a river or next to a reservoir you can you can site these independent of a water source which is a huge advantage and this reactor can actually store excess energy in the store in the form of heat within molten salt and then pull that heat back and cycle up and down more easily”
The S&P 500 currently allocates only 4% weight to energy stocks, historically low relative to the 12-16% typical allocation and peaks of 20%, while simultaneously allocating historically high weight to tech/AI stocks (Magnificent 7), creating an imbalance where the very electricity-consuming companies driving energy demand are crowding out energy supply companies from portfolio allocation.
“4% of that um um index is now dedicated to energy it it in 20089 it gets up to 16 to 20% but those people who have you know just an S&P position have 4% exposure to energy stocks...the imbalance is being caused by the Magnificent 7 which are driving you know the the hype and getting the valuations in lie of their you know um inroads into AI so the very thing that is driving up that overvalued...highly valued portion of the market that's crowding out the energy weight”
Three US nuclear reactors (Dwayne Arnold in Iowa, Palisades in Michigan, and Three Mile Island Unit 1 in Pennsylvania) are currently being evaluated for potential restart, representing a sentiment signal about how seriously the US is taking nuclear fleet preservation in response to electricity demand growth.
“we're already seeing that in the US we're seeing talk of restarting reactors in the United States there's three reactors that are currently um in the process of potentially restarting it's Dwayne Arnold in Iowa it's Palisades in Michigan and it's the unit one at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania”
The uranium commodity bottomed at $18 per pound in late 2016, marking the start of a potential long-term contrarian investment opportunity in a deeply hated, oversupplied sector where the cheapest global producers faced sustaining costs higher than the commodity price itself.
“the commodity u308 spot uranium come bottomed at like $18 a pound late 2016”
Large uranium producers including Paladin, Cameco, and Kazakh state producer voluntarily took production offline in 2017-2018 (with examples including Langer Heinrich at 5-6M lbs/yr and MacArthur River at 18M lbs/yr) as deliberate supply-side discipline to reduce inventory glut and improve pricing power.
“you had large producers decide to take their projects offline Paladin took Langer Heinrich offline this is 5 to6 million pounds a year out of Namibia cico took MacArthur River offline which is 18 million pounds a year that's in Saskatchewan Canada uh camoo also took rabbit Lake offline”
Physical uranium (via Sprott Physical Uranium Trust or Yellowcake) provides unleveraged commodity exposure with the advantage that Sprott can issue new shares when trading at premiums to net asset value to raise cash for purchases, and holds 63 million pounds where uranium cannot be sold back into the market without 2/3 investor approval.
“the easiest and safest way if there is a safe way to invest in this sector would be to invest in the spra physical uranium trust or yellow cake...sprot if you just are bullish on the theme and you think uranium price is going up sprot physical trust is a great way to play it has great liquidity um and it's it's an an an unleveraged way to just bet on a rising commodity you can buy it when it's at a steep discount to nav...they're holding 63 million pounds of uranium right now that uranium can't be sold back into the market without uh I think it's a 2/3 investor approval which would never happen so effectively that's uranium heaven”
Kazakh uranium producer Kazatomprom produces more uranium than any other country in the world by a substantial margin, with rapid production ramps in the early 2000s to peak in 2016 (coinciding with commodity bottom), and subsequent production target misses that have been cited as market-moving events.
“the kazaks that at the time were 100% state-owned Kazam prom and Kazakhstan produces the most uranium out of any country in the world by a long shot they were ramping production very very quickly um the fastest uranium production ramp that we've ever seen right so that was going early 2000s into the peak of their production was also 2016...the KX came in and said we're not going to be able to reach our production targets and the market went crazy in January”
Data centers are growing rapidly in the United States, China, UK, and Japan, operating continuously at full load and requiring significant power for cooling and air conditioning, making them a persistent, non-intermittent load that requires base load electricity sources.
“data centers growing very very quickly not only in California but just to speak generally globally the United States has a lot of data centers China has a lot of data centers the UK and Japan have a lot of data centers and data centers just literally for storing data for doing what we're doing right now in this interview right that is has absolutely exploded and they use a lot of electricity they run very hot need a lot of Cooling and Air Conditioning and they're always on right so they need load power”
Energy can be weaponized through supply disruption, as demonstrated by Russia's use of energy supplies as leverage in Europe and more broadly, motivating nations to seek energy independence and security through domestic or allied supply sources.
“the war in Ukraine really put a highlight on the fact the energy can be weaponized and and that has led to an increased interest for Nations to protect their own energy security”
The US banned importation of Russian uranium starting in 2028 (becoming law in approximately 3 weeks from the July 22 recording date), but the Department of Energy is offering waivers until 2028, including awarding waivers to Centrus to purchase Russian HALEU feedstock because the US has no domestic HALEU supply and cannot source it elsewhere.
“we've just this year banned the importation of Russian uranium into the United States starting in 2028 and that actually becomes law in about three weeks but there are waivers being offered by the department of energy from between now and 2028 they just announced that they gave a waiver to centrus probably because centrus was awarded the RFP for Halo...they need their feed stock and their feed stock in the near term comes from a legacy contract with Russia”
There are hundreds of advanced reactor designs (Generation 4 reactors, small modular reactors) in development, with 80-100+ distinct SMR designs in various stages, representing significant R&D investment but uncertain commercialization timelines and material uncertainty about which designs will achieve commercial deployment.
“there are what are considered uh Generation 4 reactors or Advanced reactors and there's uh hundreds of designs of these and there are um especially 80 to 90 and possibly even more than 100 small modul reactors of the advanced nature”
From 2007 to 2008, the uranium commodity crashed from a peak of $134 per pound to the $40s within approximately 12 months, coinciding with the Global Financial Crisis, followed by a partial recovery into the 2010-2011 period before the Fukushima Daiichi accident triggered a sustained multi-year bear market.
“the peak which was 2007 the commodity fell from $134 a pound into the 40s over the course of about 12 months it was a basically a crash in the commodity it coincided with the GFC started to recover there was still kind of bullish for lack of better word news in the sector China was building a lot of reactors the price started to recover I think it got into the 70s and then we had the Fukushima daichi accident that was in March 2011”
Base load power is electricity that is always-on and weather-independent; only nuclear, hydroelectric, and geothermal can provide true baseload; wind and solar are intermittent and weather-dependent, requiring baseload sources to cycle up/down as backup.
“base load is always on electricity it's not intermittent it's not weather dependent so base load and clean is really the best electricity you can you can have”
Uranium mining stocks are extremely volatile and can experience 5-10% down days or 10%+ up days, requiring investors to maintain small position sizes, enter positions in tranches, never be 100% invested, and maintain patience through sentiment swings that cause some investors to capitulate after 20% portfolio declines.
“it's extremely volatile um it it's one of those sectors where you really have to hang on to your hat you really have to invest the start off small and make sure that you can stomach the volatility would be my my general recommendations for somebody just entering the sector enter into positions and tranches...you can have a 5 or 10% down day...never be out of cash...people literally just throw in the towel and capitulate after a 20% down move in the sector”
Most uranium mining companies will never produce anything; the universe of ~100-130 mining stocks primarily consists of development-stage and exploration-stage companies; only a handful are producing or near-production.
“most companies are never going to produce anything anyways so if you you can go on their Fe ibility study if they have one”
Justin's uranium sector focus portfolio (emphasizing developing and producing mining companies) has outperformed the URRA uranium ETF by approximately a factor of two (including dividends), demonstrating that fundamental analysis-driven stock selection can substantially outperform passive uranium sector exposure.
“our uh Focus list portfolio of uranium stocks is outperformed urra by almost a factor of two including the dividends for Ur”
Cameco owns 49% of Westinghouse Electric, which maintains relationships with 95% of the world's nuclear reactor fleet 'in some way or another,' creating potential for vertical integration across mining, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and reactor construction, though the valuation implications of this ownership are impossible to precisely model.
“you have companies like camoo that you could argue based on uh you know based on their PE Ratio or whatever it might be that it's overvalued but camoo owns 49% of Westinghouse Westinghouse has their hands in 95% of the of the world's nuclear reactor Fleet in some way or another it's it's impossible to gauge the potential valuation of that acquisition...they are going to have vertical integration across the fuel cycle with the exception of enrichment uh until Global laser enrichment is developed”
Uranium mining is inherently difficult and unattractive as a business (mining 'sucks'), requiring billions in capex for years of development before production, disincentivizing new entrants and creating structural barriers to supply expansion even at high prices.
“nobody wants to build a mine mining sucks it's really hard and no one wants to do it so nobody's going to do it to break even”
Uranium supply constraints are expected to persist for 3-5+ years even in 'optimistic' scenarios where all major development projects proceed on schedule, due to the 5-10 year mine development timelines and natural decline rates of existing producing mines.
“we have three four five years before Supply can even come close to meeting demand and during that period of time there's still a lot of buying utilities have to do we expect that's going to move the market pretty substantially...if all of that happens maybe 2029 2030 we see the market balance for a point in time...we've got decline rates of the existing mines as well with a demand Rising backdrop so it's a very very robust looking supply and demand situation going out into the f future”
Western electricity demand has been relatively stagnant for 20 years due to population stabilization and efficiency improvements in appliances and building, while Eastern demand (particularly India) continues growing rapidly as developing nations reach Western consumption levels.
“the Western demand for electricity has been relatively stagnant for about the past 20 years that has to do primarily with well the population leveling off a bit it has grown in the west but it hasn't grown to at the pace that it has in the East right so that's one aspect of it you also have just general efficiencies efficiencies in Home Building efficiencies in lighting uh just general smaller efficiencies within the electric devices”
Tech companies are 'buying up land like crazy in Northern Virginia' to establish data centers, with Northern Virginia having more data centers than any other US state, likely due to proximity to DC.
“the tech companies are buying up land like crazy in Northern Virginia to establish more data centers and there's the most in Virginia out of any other state in the United States probably due to its proximity to DC”
Western utilities are currently in a temporary stalemate, using tactical maneuvers ('pulling forward material', 'flexing up on old contracts') to avoid signing new long-term uranium contracts at current elevated prices, but these tactics have limited runway because old contracts eventually expire and deferred needs must be filled, making the system fragile and susceptible to sudden demand spikes.
“it's pulling forward material it's flexing up on old contracts I know we don't have the time to talk about that but the utilities have done what they've could they've pulled on every lever possible to avoid signing very large long-term contracts and there isn't a lot of flex in the system yet it's very fragile”
Uranium is currently in a consolidation phase following a rallying period (peaked at $106/lb in late January 2024), with Q3-Q4 historically showing strong seasonal patterns, and upcoming catalysts (Cameco/Kazakhstan production announcements in August, World Nuclear Association conference in September, utility budget cycles in October) that could trigger significant upside moves.
“following a long period of consolidation and poor sentiment which is where we're at right now usually there's a move to the upside during a secular long-term bull market...uranium is very cyclical there is news coming out of camoo and Kazakhstan next month in August and then you have the w conference in September a bunch of utilities get new budgets in October there's always a lot of activity in Q3 and Q4 for Uranium so...uranium as a chart 22 23 coming in to 24 nice piercing of that and a wonderful little pullback that we're in right now”
Large low-grade uranium projects in Namibia (referenced as examples) have feasibility studies showing breakeven costs around $65-70/pound, which are multiple-year-old studies requiring updating as mine costs and inputs inflation, meaning actual current economic thresholds for new supply are likely higher.
“some of the big like lower grade projects in Namibia let's say that their own feasibility studies you know two years ago were putting in $65 $70 a pound uranium um so as they update those feasibility studies that's going to look better for these companies obviously”
The word 'clean energy' in the energy industry typically refers to non-carbon or low-carbon electricity sources, including nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, and hydroelectric, though the term's definition doesn't necessarily encompass other environmental impacts beyond carbon.
“typically the word clean energy would would describe non-carbon emitting energy and so which I don't think in my personal opinion is not necessarily the overarching definition of clean there's plenty of other elements to Coal Power for example to uh biomass electricity which is considered green but is uh possibly one of the dirtiest in the overall environmental effects”
CANDU reactors (Canadian Deuterium Uranium reactors) are heavy water reactors developed in Canada that constitute approximately 10% of the world's nuclear fleet, operating almost entirely in Canada with a handful in India and Argentina, and represent an 'absolute success story for Canadian energy.'
“K do is a heavy Water Reactor Kos are are brilliant...about 10% of the world's Fleet of C do almost entirely in in Canada there's a handful of of these heavy water reactors in India I think in Argentina...they've it's been an absolute success story for Canadian energy”
Estimated excess uranium inventory from the 2000s-2010s oversupply period was approximately 150 million pounds, sitting in various conversion facilities and being traded among utilities and producers, chronically depressing primary mine demand.
“if you figure a very rough calculation of the over supply of the 201s you had probably from what China didn't buy an excess of maybe 150 million pounds of uranium just sitting in a can at one of the various conversion facilities being traded and sold to utilities and so the producers just didn't get a lot of business in the 201s because there was so much inventory around”
Uranium sector moves are driven by unexpected catalysts (RFPs, producer announcements, geopolitical events) that move the market 'in big big ways'; the current environment is 'fragile' and could be broken by any of several catalysts (large RFP, Kazakh production miss, sectoral news).
“you don't have to know what is going to break it just know that it's fragile enough that something anything can happen that can shake this up a big buyer stepping in the kazak again announcing potentially 10 days from now that they're not going to hit their 2025 production targets either that sort of thing can move this Market in a big big way”
The current US nuclear fleet operates at higher efficiency than it did 10-20 years ago, producing the same 94 reactors today what was previously generated by 110 reactors, through incremental technological improvements in light water and boiling water reactor designs.
“we're producing the same amount of electricity with 94 reactors as we did with 110 reactors right now with there's been that many that have come offline and they're continuing to increase efficiencies”
California has approximately 4-5% of all cars on the road as electric vehicles, the highest state percentage in the US, with most other states showing lower but incrementally growing EV penetration, all of which contributes to surging electricity demand that base load sources must satisfy.
“I'm in California I can't throw a stick in my town without hitting a Tesla uh so we've got you know four to 5% of the cars on the road in California are are electric and that's a lot it's the state with the most electric cars so most other states are not to that to that extent but it's incrementally growing and moving that direction”
The entire nuclear fuel cycle from mining to enrichment to fabrication takes approximately 1.5 to 2 years, and utilities purchase fuel at various stages of this cycle based on their supply chain preferences, often buying as close to the final fabrication stage as possible to minimize upstream procurement cost.
“the fuel Cycle takes a long time...this whole process takes about two years maybe a year and a half if if all of those services are located relatively near each other so um basically the fuel Cycle takes a long time and utilities can can purchase anywhere in that fuel cycle and the their end product is fabrication right so they need fabricated fuel rods”
Light-water and boiling-water reactors (the global fleet majority) use uranium enriched to 4-5% U-235; this is distinct from both natural uranium (0.7% U-235) and highly-enriched weapons-grade uranium (>90%), representing civilian standard fuel.
“the typical enrichment level for boiling water and light water reactors is between 45% of u235 don't won we don't have to get geeky with that it's the it's the fys isotope in uranium natural grain is 7 they enrich it up to four between four and 5%”
The uranium sector consists of approximately 120-130 mining stocks, compared to 50-60 stocks three to four years ago, showing the sector's recognized growth trajectory and attracting increasing number of development and exploratory companies.
“there's like I said there's 120 130 mining stocks in the space some somewhere around there there was about 50 or 60 like three to four years ago so it's been growing the trend has been recognized right”
Ontario's government has an 'incredibly robust' and 'Forward Thinking' nuclear plan for nuclear power development, suggesting regional policy support for nuclear expansion in Canada.
“Ontario the Ontario government has an incredibly robust uh nuclear plan for um those who use Ontario power not maybe well known but an incredibly Forward Thinking plan”