YouTube38m· Jun 2020· cataloged

DON'T FIGHT THE FED - Danielle DiMartino Booth


What this covers

Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.

DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence is conceived and delivered with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers, but promoting financial literacy. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher.

To sign up for her daily newsletter , The Daily Feather, please go to quillintelligence.com.

The Fed has created a monster in the credit markets led by Jerome Powell.

And our national debt has become endemic. This means that debt is everywhere from small to medium, to massive businesses. Private debt, and pension debt. This has created a Systemic Risk that is uncontrollable by any monetary policy.

But the Feds have an obligation to uphold the financial stability of the country. This is why we saw such a dramatic turn of action from Powell. He couldn't let the 401ks and pension funds of millions of Americans dissolve.

And with new highs in the S&P as of June 2020, many of the equities markets are at all-time highs.

Here is the truth to why this has happened: * Retail Traders * Millennials with $600 a week in unemployment * Day Traders * Sports Gamblers * The Pandemic

There are more high-risk people in the market who are day trading options and using large amounts of leverage that are moving the markets alongside major institutions that are going along for the ride. There are estimates of 50 - 70 million people "micro trading" who are holding up the market.

And because bubbles don’t have logic or reasoning to them, this bubble can keep going up and up.

Because of this, on a fundamental level, the reopening of the American economy and the V shape recovery is a myth. Businesses by the day are declaring bankruptcy and even mega-companies like Nike have reported massive revenue declines.

In total, 18% of Americans are collecting unemployment that is not being reflected in the markets.

What has changed in our lives that won’t come back? * Small Businesses have grown using cheap labor - automation is going to change labor and how its viewed. Businesses are going to place a premium on not having human interaction. The coronavirus has propelled the automation movement forward quickly. * The average person has no savings. The people in the middle are going to get hit the hardest. They have taken a hit to their income

The 2nd wave of layoffs as the result of demand destruction is coming. And its going to hit Americans hard.

What are some new habits that Americans are going to start taking on? * People not going out as much * Not going to the movies * Not going out to eat * No excess spending * Buying precious metals

What are some ways to protect wealth? * Direct investments in startup companies * Seeding entrepreneurs (who are worthy) * Buying Municipal Bonds * Have a Money Manager who picks bonds * Have Precious Metal Holdings * Don't go anywhere near the stock market * Buy ETF on precious metals * Research Silver funds, invest

Every single indicator of earnings and valuations of the stock market is off the charts. Technicals don't make sense and companies can no longer predict earnings or forecast expected earnings. This makes investing in the current stock market a gambler's game.

Telemedicine will be huge in the coming years. Finding good companies to invest in will be worthwhile.

What to look for when working with startups: * How quickly can they grow the project * Lean company working 24/7 with conservative financials

- US Dollar relative to other currencies is stronger than the others.

- Bitcoin and digitized currencies is an inevitability for sovereign countries.

Group Think has enveloped central banks and everyone is doing the wrong things together. This is why every country keeps printing money instead of letting events play out as they should.

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#CreditMarkets #Investing #FederalReserve

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Sharpest takeaway

Federal Reserve policy and unconventional monetary measures have created systemic financial instability and distorted markets, causing a dangerous bubble in equities fueled by retail traders and index investing while masking fundamental economic weakness, particularly in employment and consumer spending.

  • Powell's pivot to unlimited QE in 2019 was driven by systemic risk in credit markets, not economic strength, creating moral hazard
  • Current equity rally is 'don't fight the Fed on steroids' with 50-70 million micro-traders and passive index investors creating artificial demand disconnected from fundamentals
  • V-shaped recovery is a myth; unemployment remains elevated at 18%, consumer spending is circumspect, and a second wave of white-collar job losses is coming

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0.80

The strategy of QE was put in place in 2008 and has become so entrenched with too much inertia to change course because debt has become endemic across the largest publicly traded companies, small and medium sized enterprises, private debt markets, and pension systems, creating systemic risk if unwound

causalhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 4/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

the strategy was put in place in 2008 there's too much inertia it's just too tough to change course what happens well it's dead has become endemic and it's not just in the biggest publicly publicly traded companies that the Fed is now buying if they've been downgraded for fallen angels it's in small and medium sized enterprises it's in the private debt market it's in the pension system

0.80

There were no junk bond issuances for 41 record days starting November 14, 2018, indicating a market seizure that forced the Fed to act because rising spreads, mass ETF redemptions, and illiquid collateral created a systemic financial stability crisis

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 4/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

there was no junk bond issuance for 41 record days beginning November the 14th 2018 the world authorities they they started raising the the red flag saying wait a minute we've got we've got spreads blowing out in the high-yield market and there's mass redemptions in these exchange-traded funds and the collateral backing them is trading by appointment only so you've got a potential systemic situation on your hands

0.75

Jerome Powell initially called quantitative easing 'inflating an asset bubble across the entire credit spectrum' and said it was 'habit-forming', demonstrating he understood how it worked through the financial system before becoming Fed chair

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

he initially called out quantitative easing he said that it was inflating a credit bubble across excuse me and he said that was inflating Adoration bubble across the entire credit spectrum he called quantitative easing habit-forming he understood how it was working its way through the financial system

0.75

Richard Fisher (Dallas Fed president) told Danielle in fall 2015 that Powell 'has his eyes focused on shrinking that balance sheet, he wants to get out of the reinvestment business' and return to conventional monetary policy, which influenced her view of him as a reformer

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

Richard Fisher retired in 2015 I followed him right out I just had my five year anniversary whoop of leaving the Fed in June of 2015 I ran into him in the fall and he said look I want you to pay attention to one guy and that's Jay pal he's got his eyes focused on shrinking that balance sheet he wants to get out of the reinvestment business he wants for the Fed to go back to just the the simp the simplicity of raising and lowering interest rates and getting out of this whole unconventional monetary policy

0.75

Current market dynamics reflect 'don't fight the Fed on steroids': an entire generation of index investors has been told active management adds no value and should rely on passive investing while the Fed backstops markets, creating a two-tier system of retail traders and institutions riding a liquidity wave

causalhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

what we're witnessing in the markets today is it's don't fight the Fed on steroids you have an entire generation of index investors who've been told that it is not economical to pursue active management that there's nothing that a human being can add in terms of value just let the machines take it take over and and step aside because don't fight the Fed that that's always going to have your back

0.75

Hong Kong's grassroots compliance with masks (despite government advice against them) and one-time leaders' poor initial guidance resulted in only 1-4 deaths and continued economic functioning without shutdowns, demonstrating that voluntary coordination can work better than mandates or mixed signals

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

Kerry lamb famously came out right when the pandemic news hit hit the headlines she came out and told the people of Hong Kong don't wear masks don't bother people of Hong Kong came together and said well we know she's not our friend so they it was a pure grassroots effort in Hong Kong that everybody got together they got the masks they knew to protect themselves and they've had one two three four deaths that's it

0.75

Automation and digitization are expanding beyond enterprise software to consumer-facing physical processes—apps that allow customers to visualize home renovations and order materials online, replacing human interaction in even routine household management

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

it's being able to to conceive what a house blueprint looks like and put it on an app on your phone so that you know what to do one year from you know five years from now I need to go there's a hole in the wall and I need to get the the paint will you just go this room this paint color reorder boom done end of story

0.75

On Powell's first day as Fed chair, the Dow Jones closed down more than 1,000 points, but Powell did nothing and said nothing in response, unlike predecessors Yellen, Bernanke, and Greenspan who would have declared emergency measures

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

his first day in office literally the Dow Jones closed down more than a thousand points Janet Yellen would have put out in emergency SOS nine-one-one DEFCON 1 whatever Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan they all would have reacted he did nothing he said nothing

0.74

The only scenario where the US dollar could lose reserve currency status is through a literal hot war (shooting war with major power), which historically is how reserve currencies have been displaced (Portugal, Spain, British Pound Sterling)

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 4/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

if for some reason there's a hot war one day because I don't think a cold war would do it because there's not enough acceptance of the yuan for it to take over the US dollar in terms of its reserve currency status but if there was a hot war one day there's a possibility that the dollar could lose its reserve currency status... all reserve currencies debt reserve currencies historically going back to Portugal Spain that's how they lose their status it was that's how British Pound Sterling lost its status

0.74

'The Lords of Finance' by Liaquat Ahamed is essential reading because it documents how groupthink in central banking (particularly during 1913-Great Depression period) established patterns now repeating globally, showing how all major central banks are 'doing the wrong thing together'

normativehigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 4/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

read the Lords of Finance... it goes through the establishment in 1913 of the Federal Reserve and kind of the downfall of major central banks in Europe and kind of the groupthink that enveloped central banking which it has now it's a global phenomenon everybody's doing the wrong thing together they're the parallels with with 1913 on through World War one and then the massive amount of debt that was created in the aftermath of the wars and then the then the Great Depression that eventually followed

0.74

The worst career advice is becoming 'so right for so long' that you're rigid in your thinking and unable to update your worldview when big picture conditions change, as Harvey Rosenbloom (head of research, Dallas Fed) advised Danielle throughout her career

normativehigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 4/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

the best advice I ever received was from the head of research at the Dallas Fed who is my mentor gentleman by the name of Harvey rosenbloom and he said that the worst thing you can let happen to your career is that you're so right for so long that you're rigid in your thinking if something changes in the big picture that needs to to sway the way you're thinking

0.70

Retail traders have become day traders using options and leverage in such massive numbers (estimated 50-70 million small investors) that they can move the market alongside major institutions, fundamentally changing market structure and price discovery

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

they're doing it with options they're doing it with leverage and they're doing it in such massive numbers that they're able to move the mark and they're doing it alongside major institutions as well so that are going along for this ride so this is when you wake up in the morning and you hear that Hertz a bankrupt company is going to be issuing stock you stop and you say to yourself there's something really wrong here

0.69

Telemedicine and at-home healthcare will significantly increase because people are willing to see doctors more frequently if the friction of scheduling, travel, and waiting is eliminated, representing a structural change in health service consumption

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· J Martin (CEO of Cambridge House)

one one that I'm looking at specifically right now is telemedicine there's been some really exciting stories and not just for the up side but as a consumer I wouldn't I think I would probably get far more advice or I would see a doctor for more often if it were that easy right but when you have to call in book an appointment two weeks down the road and then it's massively you can be in their care oh it's a process

0.69

Sovereign cryptocurrencies are inevitable for all major nations for national security and surveillance purposes, with China, Russia, and Venezuela leading implementation, and the Fed investigating 'Fed coin', though quantum computing advances might reduce costs

forecasthigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

I think that there is an inevitability for national security purposes when it comes to sovereign crypto currencies I mean once you saw the first three countries jump in China Russia Venezuela I mean those were the first three entrants and they're doing it more so that they can monitor what people are buying and find yet another way of monitoring them but and it was years ago that the Bank of England said that they're investigating we know for a fact the Federal Reserve is investigating Fed coin

0.69

Bubbles don't have logic or reasoning to them, so it's possible for the current equity rally to continue despite fundamental weakness because sentiment and Fed support can override fundamentals for extended periods

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

there's you know I get a lot of pushback when I tell people that yes it can because bubbles don't have logic they don't have reasoning to them

0.69

Americans will shift from zero interest rate savings accounts to alternative asset classes like precious metals and gold because gold historically performs nearly as well during deflationary periods as inflationary ones, providing shelter from economic disruption when families want to retain the value of what they have.

causalhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

they're gonna look to alternatives in in the in the event that I'm right that this is not going to be a v-shaped recovery and it's going to be a long ugly slog and we're gonna be in recession for some time to come that people will start to look for the safety of precious metals it's simply human nature and there's a total fallacy we ran the correlations at quill last week there's a total fallacy that it's some great protector of the dollars buying power because gold is done almost as well in deflationary times as long as you've got enough of a disruption going through the economy it is the ultimate shelter from the storm

0.68

General Electric's downgrade in October 2018 (Halloween 2018) prompted Powell's policy pivot toward unlimited QE, signaling that he realized the credit market was bigger than him and could not be controlled through conventional policy tools

causalhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

the days that followed General Electric getting downgraded Halloween of 2018 and that prompted his pivot just a few months later at which point I had to disband the fan club now do you think anybody could have made a different choice because he was so vocally opposed to that strategy that he's now implementing

0.68

Small businesses have used cheap labor for years, but the pandemic will permanently change this because they've discovered the cost of human interaction and will accelerate automation, trickling down from large manufacturers to small enterprises and changing labor dynamics

causalhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

small businesses have grown for years using cheap labor it's been something that that's feasible because there's been a big enough pool of labor out there that will work for very little money in the United States small businesses are not going to do that anymore to the same extent at least they have now discovered that there's a cost to having too much human interaction and that if they can find a way to automate they will find a way to automate

0.65

Powell's January 2019 statement apologizing for his 'naivete' about QE and reversing his position fundamentally shifted from his original commitments, marking the point where Danielle saw he had capitulated to systemic pressure

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

in January 2019 he said I apologize basically for my naivete all those years ago when I denounced QE at which point I said that's it I'm calling the divorce attorney

0.64

Jeremy Stein, a Fed board member who joined with Powell in June 2012, has remained an outspoken detractor of Fed policy and has correctly identified how Fed policy has created monster credit market distortions.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 0/4durability 4/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

when he was on the board he started with one of my favorite board members ever that's saying something for me named Jeremy Stein Jeremy Stein has remained an outspoken detractor for a lot of what Fed policy has create it the monster that's created in the credit markets

0.64

McKinsey reported that 33% of all US employees would eventually lose their positions to automation, and the pandemic virus has 'effectively expedited that movement' forward significantly

causalhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

the McKinsey study that came out last year that said 33 percent of all US employees would eventually lose their positions to automation the current virus has effectively expedited that movement it's pushed it forward

0.62

A coordinated, thoughtful, and well-planned federal-state approach to reopening was necessary and achievable for US economic recovery, but political dysfunction prevented this despite the availability of clear guidelines

normativehigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

all I'm saying is there there there was no reason to not reopen the US economy but it had to have been done in a thoughtful well-planned coordinated fashion despite the fact that we have obviously a federal-state type system it for the greater good of the US economy if you want it for it to come roaring back you just needed to have a few simple guidelines right

0.61

Powell's first congressional testimony emphasized that 'it's not the Fed's job to back the stock market', showing initial resolve to avoid the precedent of Fed-enabled moral hazard

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

his first congressional testimony he was very resolute it's not the feds job to back the stock market I promptly found it the Jay Powell fan club on Twitter really quickly

0.61

Barry Ritholtz discussed how Sweden's laissez-faire pandemic approach (letting it run its course) resulted in economic damage equivalent to shutdown countries, while also having case count increases—proving that economic damage was unavoidable regardless of policy choice

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

I think it was I I believe a good friend of yours Barry Ritholtz was discussing I think was Sweden you know they essentially had the leis a fair attitude they let the pandemic run its course but the economy was still hit just as hard because men escaped a global economic shutdown Oh matter what you do independently and the end they've had their case counts come up in Sweden right so that adds the insult to the injury

0.61

Despite all central banks (Fed, Bank of Japan, ECB, Bank of England) printing money aggressively, the US dollar will likely retain reserve currency status in the near term because other currencies are equally or more problematic

forecasthigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

I you know I get that the Fed is printing all this money I get it but so is the Bank of Japan and so is the European Central Bank and so is the Bank of England... the dollar could lose its reserve currency status at which point I would want... it's not something that I'm not saying is impossible it's just going to remain as my boss Richard Fisher always said when when we were working together it was the most active horse in the glue factory

0.61

Germany reopened successfully by enforcing a 10,000 euro fine for maskless individuals, making mask compliance a matter of financial consequence rather than voluntary choice, proving that economic reopening is achievable with clear enforcement

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

Germany is reopening pretty successfully which it's easy enough to do if there's a ten thousand euro fine if you're caught not wearing a mask so either you comply or you don't but if you feel strongly that masks are not efficacious that's fine you get to pay a lot of money

0.59

American Airlines still has more debt on its balance sheet and has doubled its debt burden during pandemic despite questions about business traveler recovery, yet the company is able to issue equity, exemplifying market dysfunction.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 1/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

you know from living in Dallas Texas that even if even if American Airlines travel does come back to a certain extent the business travellers not coming back threatening anytime soon American Airlines still has more debt on their balance sheet and yet they've run it up they've doubled it

0.57

A V-shaped economic recovery is a myth because reopening hasn't actually happened for many Americans—consumers are more circumspect than ever, with consumption depressed despite reopening, preventing the rapid economic bounce-back that markets are pricing in

factualhigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

on a fundamental level this reopening v-shaped three is a myth it's not working we've gone from thirty 1.1 million Americans collecting some form of unemployment insurance... you've got quite a few Americans who are not consuming the way that they did

0.56

From 31.1 million Americans collecting unemployment insurance to 29.5 million represents only modest progress when 18% of Americans are still collecting unemployment insurance in some form, which is not being reflected in market valuations

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

we've gone from thirty 1.1 million Americans collecting some form of unemployment insurance plus what happened with the cares act emergency measures we've gone from 31 point 1 million to twenty nine point five million Wow I mean that's just great progress the fact is we still have a ton of Americans about 18% of Americans collecting unemployment insurance in some form that is not being reflected in the markets in any way right

0.56

Christopher Cole (Artemis Capital) argues that because of a massive shift in portfolio conception (first in 80 years), precious metals must constitute approximately 25% of a portfolio rather than the traditional 10% hedge, requiring bold conviction rather than minimal exposure

normativehigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

good friend of mine Christopher Cole who's at Artemis Capital he's kind of the king of volatility he understands it better than anybody on the planet he's written a seminal paper that was published a few months ago that basically says because we're coming into a massive shift in the way we conceive portfolios you know one of the first ones in 80 years he his advice is that you can't be you you can't be wimpy about precious metals you have to understand that it needs to be a big 25 percent of your portfolio

0.54

Warren Buffett and Stanley Druckenmiller recently said they massively misjudged the economic recovery and were underinvested, indicating even sophisticated investors failed to anticipate the market rally driven by monetary stimulus rather than fundamentals.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 0/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

you've got people like Warren Buffett and Stanley Druckenmiller saying you know we massively misjudged this recovery and we were under invested

0.52

Americans have been told to 'save for a rainy day' as a cliche, but the pandemic has tested this for the first time and hurt the middle class most severely—people making $75k-$100k who didn't qualify for stimulus are now viscerally aware of savings necessity, creating permanent behavioral change in this cohort

causalhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

most Americans most generations of Americans have been told that they need to save for a rainy day and it's kind of trite it's cliche you know okay right I got it I got it safer in it it's never been tested ever until now and now it's been tested and it's really hurt and it's not just hurt differently it's hurt the middle the core of the country at the lowest end you have people making six hundred additional dollars a week in unemployment insurance they're making in some cases one out of every five people who are unemployed are making double what they made before

0.51

High school seniors' outbreak parties and post-Memorial Day spikes in cases demonstrate that outdoor protest transmission risk is uncertain, but the precedent shows second wave risk is real and states with 7-day moving averages exceeding previous levels (Texas, Florida, Arizona, Utah) are seeing rapid case increases

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 1/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

we're already seeing it we're seeing it here in Texas there were a bunch of high school seniors who had major parties and so there's there's this outbreak among high school seniors because they were all in confined areas we're seeing it two weeks after the Memorial Day holiday so we're already seeing what the protests are gonna look like... in 22 states right now you've got a seven day moving average that's north of what it was prior and you've got states like Texas Florida Arizona Utah they're all coming up pretty fast

0.51

Current stock market valuations cannot be justified because 40% of the S&P 500 cannot forecast their own earnings 12 months out, resulting in undefined P/E ratios, so staying in cash rather than equities is prudent despite the 'don't fight the Fed' pressure

normativehigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

forty percent of the S&P 500 can't even tell us what their earnings are going to be like twelve months from now there's zero visibility the e and the p/e ratio is undefined so I'm like okay move on I'm not that smart and it's not that I'm against or at the market either

0.48

Despite Powell's aggressive policies, when facing potential systemic financial crisis and threat to retirees' lives and US public pension systems, 'clearly difficult choices that had to be made' because the Fed's obligation to uphold financial stability supersedes other policy goals

normativehigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

but in when you're in a position like that and you're being told that you're gonna blow up a bunch of retirees lives and blow up the US public pension system it's there they're clearly difficult choices that had to be made right

0.48

Danielle is preparing her children for a potential long-term scenario of US dollar decline by having three of four children take Mandarin Chinese as insurance against possible future yuan dominance, treating language acquisition as a hedge against geopolitical instability

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

three of my four kids take Mandarin and it's with good reason because it's my long long one-on-one long term insurance plan is that if for some reason there's a hot war one day... I would want all of my children... that they would possibly be able to live in a world that was more china centric

0.48

Harvey Rosenbloom initially dismissed Danielle's housing market warning research ('threw it in the garbage can') but later recognized its value and changed the Dallas Fed's policy approach, integrating her work into all FOMC materials before distribution

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

he hired me and couldn't stand me it's just the things that I was writing about the housing market blowing up and we originally did not have the best he said he would read what I would write and throw it in the garbage can years later he by the same token introduced my work and said that from now on Danielle's work will go into everything that we do before it's taken to an FOMC meeting we have to change the way we approach monetary policymaking and he was right

0.45

When evaluating startup entrepreneurs for investment, Danielle looks for conservative financial projections (avoiding aggressive pro forma growth assumptions), hard-working founders operating lean without excess overhead, and companies run by people who won't overestimate growth

normativehigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

I think the word pro forma is a dirty word so I I look very closely at financials from the get-go... if you're doing and everything do you're like wow you're gonna grow the company that quickly and by that much bye-bye... I like to see I like to see a company run by people who are not sleeping and who are extremely lean and they've got a good startup mentality

0.45

Masks have become so politicized in many US places that people refuse to wear them even when doing so would enable stronger economic reopening, choosing one step forward and one step back over faster U-shaped recovery

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

in many places masks have become so politicized that people won't wear them even if it means that the economic reopening is going to be stronger so it's completely counterintuitive you cannot wrap your head around it if you try it's like if everybody wears masks we can have something much more close much closer to a u-shape recovery right don't wear masks we're just gonna go one step forward one step back

0.45

Danielle uses Twitter as her primary information filter, deliberately limiting her follows to 500 people to maintain signal quality, allowing her to catch important financial news before it reaches traditional media like Financial Times or Barron's

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

I I limit myself to 500 follows I only follow 500 people so if I if I need to if I feel like wow I've discovered this great new personality if somebody I I know debuts on Twitter I have to go find somebody to delete but it is my filter so if I miss something in the financial times or if I miss something in Barron's or in any publication I'm not gonna miss it it's gonna be on my feet

0.45

The pandemic lockdown shut down 80% of businesses in the US deemed 'non-essential', suggesting that 80% of the economy is fundamentally not essential to basic societal function

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

I think 80% of businesses in the u.s. were deemed non-essential so they had to shut down which is a large percentage just to say eighty percent of the economy is not essential

0.44

A second wave of professional services, finance, and real estate job layoffs is building in upper-income white-collar positions due to demand destruction, which has not yet occurred and will further impact middle and upper-middle class savings behavior when realized

forecasthigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

we still have not seen the second wave of layoffs that we know is building in professional services finance real estate type positions that are gonna be a result of demand destruction we haven't even seen the true destruction that we will see in upper income white-collar paying jobs in America that's building that's coming

0.41

The coronavirus will likely infect approximately 60% of the population before becoming endemic, and with the population currently at 5% infection, the disease could become something people learn to live with rather than fear, changing economic behavior permanently

forecasthigh valuefringenovelty 1/4durability 1/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

I heard an epidemiologist being interviewed who said that your average coronavirus once it's infected sixty percent of the population it kind of vanishes into thin air and by the way we're at five percent and I went oh my gosh what if he's even half right about that so if this is going to be something we learn to live with

0.39

Powell has since pushed monetary policy so far that 'he would make Mario Draghi blush at a cocktail party', indicating he has gone beyond even the ECB's most permissive central banker in policy aggressiveness

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

he's pushed it so far he would make Mario Draghi blush at a cocktail party he's pushed it that far

0.35

Danielle owns precious metals through ETF investments (gold and silver funds) rather than physical bullion, relying on expert advice from Peter Boockvar to determine which funds to purchase

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

when you're talking about precious metals are you buying the bullion Danielle are you buying coins and bars or all the above actually just just ETF here I'm fairly novice I got in about nine months ago yeah and I'm just and I own a silver fund as well I've got a great friend in the industry who follows this very closely so rather than make my own choices I just said what are you in and he told me and that's how I got in

0.34

Danielle DiMartino Booth has a five-year anniversary of leaving the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in June 2015, after nine years of employment there.

factualestablishednovelty 0/4durability 4/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

when Richard Fisher retired in 2015 I followed him right out I just had my five year anniversary whoop of leaving the Fed in June of 2015

0.22

Danielle DiMartino Booth's mother (age 72) holds a Ginnie Mae ETF with very low fees that generates returns exceeding inflation and far exceeding savings account interest, providing reliable income for retirement without complexity.

factualspeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

my mother bless her heart she's 72 years old I've got her in a Ginnie Mae ETF with a fee that's so small you can barely see it she's pleased she makes more than inflation she makes way more than she can make in her savings account and it just takes care of her in her retirement years

0.17

The gold standard discussion in 'The Lords of Finance' is the 'most beautiful discussion of gold' in historical literature, making the book valuable beyond its policy analysis

normativespeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 2/4· Danielle DiMartino Booth

it's a beautiful discussion of gold that you'll ever that you'll ever see best history ever written

0.13

The internet host J Martin runs a weekly newsletter to about 35,000 subscribers about lessons, advice, and anecdotes from conversations with industry experts.

factualspeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 1/4· J Martin

if you want to hear from me more often I publish a weekly newsletter to about 35,000 subscribers and I would love to have you join us right beneath this video