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China Update has been publishing daily news breifings on Chinese political, economic and geopolitical developments for five years now. To celebrate 100,000 subscribers, today is a special livestreaming Q&A event. Send in your questions as we chill together and reflex on the channel. To support China Update: Patreon Link: https://www.patreon.com/chinaupdate One-off Tips Here: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/chinaupdate
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Tony Mavin celebrates the China Update channel reaching 100,000 subscribers by providing behind-the-scenes perspective on his background, motivation, process, and vision for future expansion while addressing community questions.
- Five years of daily coverage driven by commitment to informed China discourse rather than audience size
- Plans to leave full-time employment and China to expand into interviews, podcasts, and international travel
- Community support is primary motivation and funding model to maintain editorial independence from corporate sponsors
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Foreigners in China can interact with regular Chinese people through language apps or by traveling to the country, though speaking English will bias the sample toward more cosmopolitan, educated, and internationally exposed Chinese rather than average citizens.
“I will say though on that point if you're talking to China who speak English because I assume that you that you don't speak Mandarin if you don't speak Mandarin and you're speaking English then you're already got a bit of a biased sample if someone speaks English they're probably a bit more International they're probably travelled um they're probably more Cosmopolitan and so you're not really kidding the sort of quote unquote average Chinese um if they're speaking English they could well be from the urban Elite they're more Highly Educated they more Co cosmopol”
China has not pursued structural economic transformation toward consumer-driven growth because one, it is very difficult, and two, it requires powerful vested interests (local governments, state enterprises) to surrender economic and political power, which these entities are unwilling to do.
“as we've seen they have not made that transformation and part of it I think is one it's very difficult and two there's a lot of power that has to be given up it's um and maybe more powerful when you have a robust Dynamic consumer Market that may be more powerful like in general but if that means that local governments for example have to give up some of their economic influence or their power and your vested interests then this is structurally very difficult to achieve”
An alternative to China's current strategy of directing state capital into export-oriented manufacturing and strategic industries would be a structural transformation where households have a much larger share of economic production, leading to greater consumer-driven demand and growth like in more mature economies such as the United States.
“the alternative of course is to transform their system a structural transformation where um households have enjoy a much larger share of the economic production within the economy and thus you have greater demand and you have greater consumer-driven growth like you have more mature systems like the United States which has a very robust cons like consumer Market”
Language barriers between Western analysts and China contribute to misunderstanding between the Anglosphere and China, but even within English-speaking countries understanding complex systems like the US is difficult, making good-faith information gathering and openness to being wrong essential for any complex policy analysis.
“trying to get an understanding of a large complex place like China or the United States or the EU or India um trying to get an understanding of these places even if it's in your own language is difficult like even if it's if it's all in English we obviously the United States had an election last year and there was a lot of debate around which candidate was going to win so even with this sort of what you think is a relatively simple question you've got two candidates um which is going to win uh in a system where everyone speaks the same language in the United States in Eng speaking world this was a great debate”
During the zero-COVID period in China (2020-2023), approximately 90% of European and over 90% of American expatriates left China, causing the foreign community and expatriate-serving businesses to be largely decimated.
“I I think in I think in I saw one statistic that 90% of Europeans and over 90% of Americans um which are the two biggest Western communities the Europeans and the Americans 90% left during zero Co the zero Co years when the country was locked down so the these communities were decimated the businesses that supported these communities were decimated like popular expat bars for example went out of business”
English-speaking Chinese tourists represent a biased sample of the general population because English speakers tend to be more internationally oriented, cosmopolitan, and highly educated than the general mainland population
“if you're talking to China who [33:58] speak English because I assume that you that you don't speak Mandarin if you don't speak Mandarin and you're speaking English then you're already got a bit of a biased sample if someone speaks English they're probably a bit more International they're probably travelled um they're probably more Cosmopolitan and so you're not really kidding the sort of quote unquote average Chinese um if they're speaking English they could well be from the urban Elite they're more Highly Educated they more Co cosmopol”
Tier one Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai) have experienced substantial development over the past nine years with world-class infrastructure, improved quality of dining and services, while lower-tier cities have accumulated massive debt from infrastructure spending that has crippled local government fiscal capacity.
“in the tier one cities I will also say though in the last 10 years the tier one cities have be have definitely become more developed the T1 cities uh uh have become more developed places the infrastructure is in the in the T1 cities is World Class of course you go to poorer regions they have great infrastructure but they have tremendous debt in the infrastructure in some poor regions has crippled the local government's ability to function from a fiscal perspective”
China has become more closed, more nationalistic, more xenophobic, and more inward-facing under Xi Jinping compared to 9 years ago when the speaker first arrived, representing a concerning cultural and political shift
“since then under Xi Jinping the country has become more closed it's become a little bit more nationalistic I mean it was it's always there's always always be nationalism but it's more nationalistic I think sadly it's more xenophobic it's more confident in good and bad ways”
Some nationalist voices in China view themselves as rational actors while viewing all other states as puppets of the US, which the host describes as an almost comical caricature but which reflects real ideological blindness among nationalist intellectuals
“you have a assertive relationship with Japan Japan pushes back against something and [1:38:49] then you see look Japan is is a puppet of the United States and it's that's done this because the world is trying to keep us down that will sort of be the narrative as opposed to well we're acting provocatively maybe the Japanese are acting provocatively as well and this is how States act there's this blindness with nationalists especially where where they will see China as operating like a a sensible International actor and everyone else is just a puppet of the US uh which is for [1:39:19] me it seems like almost a comical caricature”
When assertiveness by China triggers international reactions from Japan and other neighbors, Chinese nationalists interpret this as evidence that the world is conspiring against China rather than recognizing that their own provocative behavior warranted the response, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of escalation.
“if you're assertive and then if you want to change the status quo and then your neighbors or other powers around the world respond to that then Hawks that you have in policymaking circles and Hawks that you have in media for example um will take that as evidence that that assertiveness was correct because you feel like you're under threat or under siege”
China has become more closed, more nationalistic, more xenophobic, and more inward-facing under Xi Jinping over the past 9 years, representing a shift from the more open and cosmopolitan intellectual environment that existed when Mavin first arrived.
“when I first got to China which would have been about N9 years ago it was still at the tail end of a period where China was a bit more open a bit more the mainstream thinking was a bit more Cosmopolitan the intellectual um environment was more Dynamic since then under Xi Jinping the country has become more closed it's become a little bit more nationalistic”
China's property meltdown since 2021 has destroyed around $8 trillion of Chinese household wealth according to an estimate by Barclays, equivalent to around 60,000 per household, eclipsing the losses suffered by Americans in the financial crash of 2008 through 2009
“China's property meltdown has since 2021 destroyed around $8 trillion of Chinese household wealth according to an estimate by Barclays equivalent to around 60 ,000 per household eclipsing the losses suffered by Americans in the financial crash of 2008 through 2009”
Teslas are very popular in China and consumers see them as the gold standard for EVs, while Chinese EV engineers and workers in the sector acknowledge Tesla's technological leadership, but China has many trained engineers, significant government capital, and strategic sector selection that enables many domestic competitors.
“Teslas are very popular in China I see them everywhere they're very popular in China people who work in the EV sector if you talk to Chinese who work in the EV sector they will admit that Teslas are the gold standard and they they will admit they go this is an American Technology Company and they're the best but they also will say a lot of other brands American brands like Ford European Brands like um viab Japanese brands like Toyota relate to the party when it comes to EVS”
Among Chinese mainlanders, the vast majority want to see Taiwan brought under Beijing's control, with diversity in views only regarding whether this should happen peacefully or through military force, and some Chinese are nationalistic enough to prefer military resolution.
“the vast majority of Chinese and I've spoken to many um the vast majority of Chinese uh want to see Taiwan brought into the fold that is brought under beijing's control I think many I think a lot don't want a war they don't want a war they want it to be quote unquote peaceful I think some I think some don't mind a war and I think some would like a war”
Beijing has identified EV production as a critical strategic industry that must be supported and subsidized, meaning big EV players will continue to innovate and will be less constrained by bankruptcy risk due to state backing.
“Beijing has identified EV production as a critical strategic industry that must be supported and subsidized um and so it will continue to be subsidized um and supported um and so I think you will see big players um uh that will continue to innovate um and of course it's it's it's easier to innovate if you've got more space because you've been financially supported by the state you can make more risks because you know you're not going to go bankrupt”
The US is the most important country in the world today and will likely remain so for decades unless catastrophic events occur, and will continue to be one of the most consequential and influential countries, which is why US-China relations receive disproportionate coverage on the channel.
“the US of course is the most important country in the world today and will likely continue to be the most important country um for probably decades unless something catastroph happens I I expect that the US will continue to be the most one of the most if not the most consequential important influential country in the world at least for decades to come”
The Chinese EV market will see massive consolidation this year with dozens of EV companies collapsing, being restructured, or taken over by local governments, while established players like BYD will aggressively pursue international markets despite facing tariff barriers from the US, Europe, and Japan.
“I think a lot of Chinese EV companies are just going to be wiped out this year um but I think they're going to be some big players that are going to do do quite well players like byd for example and that are going to aggressively go after inter International Market um they may be hindered by tariffs”
When the speaker left China (temporarily), the foreign expat community in major cities has not fully recovered to pre-zero-COVID levels, with approximately 90%+ of Americans and Europeans departing during the lockdowns and many not returning despite reopening
“the foreign population just was decimated I I think in I think in I saw one statistic that 90% of Europeans and over 90% of Americans um which are the two biggest Western communities the Europeans and the Americans 90% left during zero Co the zero Co years when the country was locked down so the these communities were decimated”
Other major Asian cities like Taipei, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Bangkok, and Southeast Asian cities offer more robust expat social environments and Cosmopolitan communities compared to mainland China's current state
“there's not much to do if you wanted to go to Asia to have um like a social experience you want that sort of expert lifestyle where you're going out you're going to cafes and restaurants and bars and talking to people from around the world um I would recommend somewhere else in Asia Taipei is wonderful if you want a Chinese speaking Place Hong Kong is [45:22] still pretty good it's expensive though Tokyo is obviously very popular popular many places in Japan of course you're not going to get the Mandarin experience but um that's also but it's in Asia southeast Asia is cheaper Bok for example”
China's property meltdown has since 2021 destroyed around $8 trillion of Chinese household wealth according to an estimate by Barclays, equivalent to around 60,000 per household, eclipsing the losses suffered by Americans in the financial crash of 2008-2009
“China's property meltdown has since 2021 destroyed around $8 trillion of Chinese household wealth according to an estimate by Barclays equivalent to around 60 ,000 per household eclipsing the losses suffered by Americans in the [2:05] financial crash of 2008 through 2009”
The vast majority of mainland Chinese citizens want to see Taiwan brought under Beijing's control, though many prefer this happen peacefully rather than through military force, with some viewing military unification positively
“the vast majority of Chinese and I've spoken to many um the vast majority of Chinese uh want to see Taiwan brought into the fold that is brought under beijing's control I think many I think a lot don't want a war they don't want a war they want it to be quote unquote peaceful I think some I think some don't mind a war and I think some would like a war and I think some are quite nationalistic”
Both Tesla and many Chinese EV manufacturers are producing electric vehicles, with Tesla representing the technological gold standard but Chinese competitors receiving heavy state subsidies, resulting in many low-quality competitors that will collapse while strong players like BYD expand globally
“Teslas are very popular in China I see them everywhere they're very popular in China people who work in the EV sector if you talk to Chinese who work in the EV sector they will admit that Teslas are the gold standard... they also will say a lot of other brands American brands like Ford European Brands like um viab Japanese brands like Toyota relate to the party when it comes to EVS Tesla was at the front... I think a lot of Chinese EV companies are just going to be wiped out this year um but I think they're going to be some big players that are going to do do quite well players like byd for example”
Consumer media consumption in China is heavily skewed toward short-form content on smartphones, with Tiktok's success internationally due to refined algorithms developed in China's massive domestic market
“a lot of Chinese they they get they consume their media on their phones they don't have computers or big TVs Smart TVs they they will um they will consume almost all their media on their phones and so app um games platforms social media platforms on the phone and short um like Tik Tok YouTube shorts sort of short form content uh is probably the most popular form of of media consumption which is probably why Tik Tok was was created and was successful because they had this huge Market within China where [2:18:10] they were able to develop a particularly powerful algorithm for short video consumption and then they were able to take that and launch it around the world”
Mavin has encountered Chinese authorities on more than one occasion who warned him to be careful, indicating implicit understanding that his activities are monitored and carry consequences, though he does not disclose details for safety reasons.
“the authorities know I exist and I've been spoken to are more than one occasion and the speaking to is basically that you need to be careful um or there'll be consequences um so there is there is risk there”
Understanding complex systems like large nations requires good-faith engagement with information, critical thinking about evidence, and openness to revising positions based on new information, regardless of language barriers
“I think the best way is to just try to act in good faith and just have have people and this is what I try to do that are in good faith just trying to understand what's going on presenting what we think is the most accurate representation of the of the truth or [49:29] what the facts or whatever however you want to articulate that take that on board take on as much information as you can and then think about it and just be open to the the possibility that parts of it are inaccurate and then just always go back and review that and I I think for for all sort of understanding of any sort of complex system just have to be operating in good faith”
Mavin speaks fluent Mandarin with an accent due to learning as an adult, can read Chinese at near-native speed, and conducts approximately 60% of his weekly reading in Chinese to stay current on developments.
“I speak Chinese I have an accent obviously because I learned as an adult my reading is very strong I did a master's degree uh at peing University which was taught some courses were taught in English some courses were taught in Mandarin but I did entire courses in Mandarin um about 60% of the uh text that I read every week is uh in Chinese”
Mavin has lived in China for approximately nine years, with about 4.5 years in Beijing and the remainder near Shanghai, and has traveled to approximately 30 Chinese cities but has not visited Tibet or Xinjiang due to safety and access restrictions.
“I've lived lived there I think 9 years now almost 10 years I think about 9 years and about 4 and 1/2 years was in Beijing Beijing the capital and then the other half is near Shanghai”
The US-China relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world today because the US is the most consequential country maintaining the global order, and China is the most important Asian country seeking to challenge that status quo
“the US of course is the most important country in the world today and will likely continue to be the most important country um for probably decades unless something catastroph happens I I expect that the US will continue to be the most one of the most if not the most consequential important influential [25:37] country in the world at least for decades to come and China is in Asia it's the most important Asian country and it's an incredibly consequential country in the world and so the relationship between the US which main maintains the global order which is being built first um around the British Empire and then later the American system it's it's anglo-american it's Western um and it it is the status quo power and China is seeking to challenge that status quo and so that relationship [26:08] I think is the most important relationship today”
The host believes that a mature audience prefers good-faith coverage even when they disagree with it, and that audience capture is avoidable through maintaining integrity rather than chasing engagement metrics
“you could argue that this could lead to I think what some in the industry call audience capture but I think you can you can avoid that and I think that a mature audience which is what we have here and I'm very I very much appreciate this it [1:06:10] is a mature audience here I think that mature audience um wants good faith coverage even if they disagree with some of that coverage and for those who um don't appreciate that we just simply not be part of the community they just won't follow”
The speaker came to China motivated by both intellectual curiosity and a sense that New Zealand needed people with deeper understanding of China, since New Zealand had recently shifted to China as its largest market while maintaining the US as its security partner
“I was being curious about Asia and it became very clear to me that traditionally New Zealand our security patrons and our largest markets have [24:34] been the same and they've been from our same civilizational tradition... in the 20th century that [25:06] switched to um an American World Order... but for the first time we now have major Asian markets like Japan first for example and then now China and our security Patron [25:38] is the United States and the United States LED world order but our largest market is China and I thought that this was a very um this was a very interesting development um and I thought that we weren't really ready for it”
Chinese nationalism and triumphalism creates a self-reinforcing cycle: assertive Chinese foreign policy provokes international pushback, which is then interpreted as evidence of external siege, which further justifies and reinforces nationalist policy positions
“if you become more inward facing and assertive then there's a reaction to that internationally and then that reaction [1:37:47] reinforces that that assertiveness because you have a sense that you're Siege if you're assertive and then if you want to change the status quo and then your neighbors or other powers around the world respond to that then Hawks that you have in policymaking circles and Hawks that you have in media for example um will take that as evidence that that assertiveness was correct because you feel like you're under threat or under siege um and so [1:38:19] that just reinforces that”
Language barriers between Chinese and English-speaking media create misunderstanding in both directions, where Chinese leaders sometimes use language barriers as cover for unflattering actions, and Western journalists lack training in Mandarin to access original sources
“I think any sort of language uh barrier does um contribute to misunder standing or at least it contributes to the difficulty in [46:53] communication... there are a lot of journalists who are not trained in Mandarin um um although also sometimes I think um Beijing will sometimes use that to its Advantage if it does something that's unflattering or perhaps a little bit embarrassing it will it will say oh it's so sort of hide behind the language”
The creator maintains editorial independence by keeping the channel primarily subscriber-supported rather than relying on corporate sponsorships, which would create pressure to avoid topics that alienate potential sponsors.
“I wanted my the the financial support to the channel to primarily come from the community that watches it so that my incentive is always to produce the highest quality um analysis for you and that if I didn't do that then I wouldn't get that support”
Mavin believes the economy-focused narrative he presents about China is accurate based on convergence between macroeconomic data (both international and Chinese official data), and anecdotal evidence from conversations with Chinese households, small business owners, and government officials across different regions.
“I spoke to I was in Beijing about a couple of months ago and I have a a mutual friend who's from um he is from what is the province kunan in the South and he's a sort of a midsize developer who works with the local government and he people say that I'm pessimistic about the economy he was uh much more he was pessimistic on steroids”
A more hawkish policy team around Xi Jinping that prioritizes national security means more of the government's capital 'hose' is directed toward industries with military applications compared to if the policymaking group was more focused on civilian economy development.
“because you have a much more hawkish Administration maybe Administration is the wrong word um the team around shei the leader the ultimate decision maker is more hawkish and more focused on National Security PR prorities I think you definitely seeing more injection of that state-backed Capital into industries that have military application uh or just straight up military I think you're definitely seeing that for sure more so than you would see if say you had a more civilian economy focused senior decision-making group”
Mavin came to China to understand the country out of intellectual curiosity and belief that New Zealand (and Western countries more broadly) lacked expertise and understanding of China despite China becoming their largest market and primary geopolitical challenge.
“I thought that this was a very um this was a very interesting development um and I thought that we weren't really ready for it because we didn't really have many new zealanders that were studying China and going to China to train and I remember thinking at that time I was like I don't think I could name more than a few cities in China let alone have some sort of comprehensive understanding of of the system”
Mavin maintains subscriber meetups when traveling to major cities to interact directly with community members, get feedback on the channel, and network, which was his primary way of engaging with viewers before this live stream.
“this in the past was the best way for me to interact with with uh you guys the community the audience get a sense of what you do um Network a little bit um get feedback on the channel and also chat um so what I want to do here is basically that uh it's like a subscriber Meetup it's very casual it's very relaxed”
The speaker emphasizes that informed conversations about China can occur across the entire ideological spectrum—from pro-engagement to anti-China positions—as long as the underlying discourse is grounded and evidence-based, regardless of where individuals land on the spectrum.
“I wanted I found like it was very important that we had informed conversations about China whether you were pro-engagement whether you were like a big fan of China and China's rise or whether you were concerned about China's rise and the West's engagement with China or you concerned about the system or if you're very anti-china wherever you are on that Spectrum whether you're Pro or anti or in the middle or curious I think we can all agree that you need to have informed conversations about the country”
Mavin began the China Update channel because he believed informed conversations about China were critically important but lacking on YouTube, and this belief has remained constant despite the channel reaching 120,000 subscribers.
“the point of me starting the channel um and we'll maybe talk about this more later was that I wanted I found like it was very important that we had informed conversations about China whether you were pro- engagement whether you were like a big fan of China and China's rise or whether you were concerned about China's rise and the West's engagement with China”
Mavin listens to favorite podcasts and YouTube channels as part of his morning routine with coffee before beginning work, and views his channel being part of others' morning routines as one of his greatest professional achievements.
“for the longest time I'd wake up in the morning I'd have my morning run and then I typically have a coffee and listen to my favorite podcasts or watch my favorite YouTube channels but especially podcasts go for a little walk have a coffee”
Foreign visitors to China who are not politically outspoken and who stay in major cities at international hotels for short periods (1-2 weeks) will likely have positive experiences without major difficulty
“and now if you've not been politically outspoken and if you're only going for like a week or two weeks and you're staying at a a hotel an international hotel and you're in one of the major cities you'll probably be fine you'll probably enjoy it you you'll there's some some difficulties in living there which you'll see but you're only there for a week and so you'll be on that honeymoon period so it'll probably be okay”
The speaker claims he has never avoided covering a story due to safety concerns, instead modulating how he communicates sensitive information through selective quoting and presenting diverse viewpoints, allowing him to convey necessary information while managing personal risk.
“there's never been a case there's never been a time where I think we need to discuss something and I haven't because I've worried for my safety I cover the story I just am careful with how I cover it”
The speaker believes that 2024 will be a consequential year for China geopolitically and economically, with years ahead potentially being very dangerous due to tensions and economic stress
“I think it will be one of the highlights of my life and I think this year is going to be a big year for China in the world China us relations China Europe relations China's neighborhood relations within China itself especially with the economy um could well be a very [2:22:30] dangerous year the years ahead could be very dangerous but um we will be following it every day”
When interviewing taxi drivers, small business owners, and other ordinary Chinese citizens about economic conditions, the speaker finds consistent pessimism that aligns with both official macro data and international data, validating the 'narrative' that the Chinese economy is struggling and households/businesses lack confidence
“when I talk to people when I talk to small business owners when I talk to young families when I talk to taxi drivers or people who drive people you can it doesn't necessarily have to be a taxi driver you go to the airport there are people that will just drive you to their hotel and their and their own car maybe they drive a Tesla last time I flew into pong International Airport a woman drove me in her Tesla all these different people small business owners whatever people who own larger businesses manufacturing I asked them what is your feeling about the economy and still it is very pessimistic very pessimistic this is what I'm hearing so you can see this there is this um match between the macro [36:32] data the official data and the anecdotal data points”
Using more provocative thumbnails and titles resulted in a 900% increase in impressions, especially to new viewers, which is critical for YouTube algorithm growth despite the creator's personal discomfort with the approach.
“I experimented with using the more provocative thumbnails and there was a huge I think of memory I think it was 900% increase um in uh Impressions especially and this is critical Impressions to new viewers which is very very important”
The motivation for starting the China Update channel was the need for sober, grounded, and informed analysis about China that was accessible to general audiences regardless of their background in economics, international relations, or language knowledge
“the point of me starting the channel um and we'll maybe talk about this more later was that I wanted I found like it was very important that we had informed conversations about China... I felt that um what was on YouTube especially there was a lot of great stuff if you're interested in social commentary political commentary punditry um but I I felt that it was lacking sort of sober grounded exploration of the country”
The speaker communicates carefully about sensitive topics to protect himself while still covering necessary stories, using quoting and presenting diverse perspectives rather than avoiding topics due to safety concerns
“there's never been a time where I think we need to discuss something and I haven't because I've worried for my safety I always discuss [29:16] what I think needs to be discussed sometimes when it is something that is a little bit close to the line I'm a little nervous or anxious but I still discuss it and I'm just careful with how I communicate it... the concern by from the authorities is more that I'm talking to people that are giving me privileged or confidential State secrets and what I've always communicated is to them is no I have networks but I never never ask for anything that is not in the public domain everything that I cover is in the public domain”
The speaker would not accept permanent residency in China because he believes that permanent residence in a country should come with genuine commitment to being part of that society, which he does not feel toward China
“I would never accept permanent residency I have no plans on staying in China permanently uh and also uh some people may laugh at this or roll their eyes but [2:24:35] you may call me old-fashioned but uh I believe that um I believe um that if you become a permanent resident of a country you should actually try and become part of that country and I'm very proud and happy to be in New Zealand and it's China is not assist that I want to really be part of or support so I've would never accept permanent residency”
Malay's approach to source protection involves never requesting confidential or classified state information, restricting his network to information in the public domain, and explicitly communicating this boundary to Chinese authorities to distinguish his analytical work from espionage.
“I can't really go into details because as you're going to the deals would probably make things worse what I will say is the concern by from the authorities is more that I'm talking to people that are giving me privileged or confidential State secrets and what I've always communicated is to them is no I have networks but I never never ask for anything that is not in the public domain everything that I cover is in the public domain”
The speaker's New Zealand background has instilled in him a cultural norm against complaining about risks he knowingly assumes, and therefore has never publicly discussed the safety and security challenges of operating from China before this livestream.
“I'm I'm very much uh of a culture and an upbringing in New Zealand where you don't complain about things I know that's it seems in the west at the moment that that's not very mainstream it seems that a lot of people like to complain of things complain about things but call me oldfashioned that's sort of how I was raised so I've never really I've never talked about this on the channel”
The speaker's definition of success on YouTube shifted from viewership metrics to the experience of viewers watching the channel during their morning coffee routine, which he considers a greater honor than subscriber counts or revenue
“when people would say they would listen to my um Channel over coffee in the morning for me this was one of the uh biggest honors this is when uh I knew I had made it as a YouTuber when people would say they would uh listen to the channel over coffee of all the things that people point to as different success on a channel whether it's subscribe count or the amount of views [13:06] in a month or revenue or whatever the fact that um so many of you said that you listened to my content while you were having your morning coffee for me was one of the greatest honors”
State-backed capital allocation in China is increasingly directed toward industries with military applications or direct military use, driven by more hawkish decision-making from Xi Jinping's team and heightened perceived geopolitical tension, rather than representing a deliberate weaponization of economic collapse.
“you definitely seeing more injection of that state-backed Capital into industries that have military application uh or just straight up military I think you're definitely seeing that for sure more so than you would see if say you had a more civilian economy focused senior decision-making group uh but again it's more they have this hose of capital they have this hose of funding and then they choose which plants to to water”
The speaker claims authorities' primary concern is that he is obtaining state secrets or confidential information from people in government positions, and he has consistently communicated that he only uses information from the public domain and never requests non-public information.
“their concern is more that I'm getting State secrets from people that are giving me privileged or confidential State secrets and what I've always communicated is to them is no I have networks but I never never ask for anything that is not in the public domain everything that I cover is in the public domain um and I with my context I always say do not tell me anything that is not in the public domain”
The speaker believes that after leaving China, his content approach will remain consistent and grounded rather than becoming more assertive or aggressive, though he anticipates feeling less anxious when discussing sensitive topics.
“people say like oh when you leave China your content is going to is going to change it's probably going to become more assertive or aggressive no uh when I leave China and I continue I will will still continue to do the style of um broadcast that I do on China update that won't change I may feel a little less anxious um talking about things because I'll feel much safer but the type of content won't change”
The speaker intentionally limits his English-language social interactions to once per week while living in China to maintain immersive pressure for language development, a deliberate sacrifice of comfort for functional fluency.
“I made myself only hang around with other English speakers once a week which was typically a Friday night so on a Friday night I would go out I'd use English for all the other days had to interact in Mandarin”
Mavin spent three years in China during zero-COVID lockdowns unable to leave the country and unable to see his family or return to New Zealand, which was emotionally difficult but important for continued China coverage during that period
“the three years in which I was in China for zero covid where I couldn't leave because if I left I would be out of the country um was very difficult but one of the reasons I stayed was because there was almost no coverage of China from within China and so that three years it was for me I felt it was so important to continue covering what was happening in China during zeroc covid... I didn't see my family or my country for 3 years um so that was very difficult very difficult time”
Mavin plans to leave his full-time job and leave China permanently this year to pursue China Update as his exclusive full-time occupation, which will enable him to travel internationally, meet community members, build networks with experts, and conduct interviews.
“the plan is this year to transition um I can't do it straight away but I am looking at leaving full-time job and leaving China and doing this is my full-time job”
The host uses more provocative thumbnails and titles to improve algorithm performance and reach new viewers, despite personal discomfort with this approach, achieving a 900% increase in impressions to new viewers when he adopted the practice
“for the longest time I just [1:45:02] wanted plain thumbnails um I didn't like using provocative thumbnails even though many were telling me that I should I experimented with using the more provocative thumbnails and there was a huge I think of memory I think it was 900% increase um in uh Impressions especially and this is critical Impressions to new viewers”
The speaker sometimes refuses to use thumbnails created by his contractor when he judges them to be too sensationalist, maintaining editorial standards on thumbnail-title combinations
“I will and they they do the titles as well and there are some that I just refuse to use because I just think they're too sensationalist I just won't use them so I do have a line maybe for other people the line's not close enough um but I always try to uh to get that balance [1:47:38] right”
Mavin met with a mid-size developer from a lower-tier Chinese city who expressed even more pessimism about the economy than the mainstream narrative, especially regarding local government fiscal situations and property prices in lower-tier cities
“I was in Beijing about a couple of months ago and I have a a mutual friend who's from um he is from what is the province kunan in the South and he's a sort of a midsize developer who works with the local government and he people say that I'm pessimistic about the economy he was uh much more he was pessimistic on steroids so he's deeply concerned now he's from a lower tier City where it really is quite bad especially the government finances the fiscal situation”
China's lower-tier cities face particularly severe fiscal and economic challenges, with local governments experiencing severe strain from debt and the inability to generate revenue, in addition to household price depreciation that extends beyond first-tier cities.
“the narrative that the economy is not doing well and there is pessimism and that there is a a particularly concerning state in the lower tier cities in the poor parts of the region both fiscally for the local government as well as in terms of growth in prices for households I believe based on both the macro data and the anecdotal evidence that this narrative is accurate”
The speaker spent three years in China during zero-covid lockdowns unable to leave the country (unable to exit because he would be locked out if he left), which he describes as one of the hardest extended periods of his life, though he continued producing daily coverage because China had almost no on-the-ground reporting during that time.
“I was in China during zero Co the three years which was perhaps one of the hardest there have been difficult periods in my life that were very short like there's an event and then it's very a few weeks of being very emotionally difficult but in terms of an extended period of time the three years in which I was in China for zero covid where I couldn't leave because if I left I would be out of the country um was very difficult”
The fact that the creator is from New Zealand helps in his situation because New Zealand does not have a troubled relationship with China, but this does not provide complete security as someone could wake up one day and decide they don't want him operating in China, potentially resulting in imprisonment, deportation, or worse
“The fact of the matter is someone could wake up one day and decide you know this guy we don't want him doing what he's doing here and then that's it and it's that's a very nondesired that' be a very non-desirable outcome for me and it could be anything from a long imprisonment to deportation or Worse”
The channel is financially sustained primarily through subscriber support rather than corporate sponsorships, and the host limits sponsorships to approximately 2-5 per month to avoid dependency on advertisers that might influence editorial decisions
“for me it's important it was always important one that I was fully transparent with where the funding comes from for the channel um and it was also very important for me if possible and and I'm very fortunate that it has been possible that the channel is primarily subscriber [1:04:34] supported this is why sponsored features which can be quite lucrative are restricted to just a couple of month”
There are real security risks and concerns associated with operating a news/analysis channel from within mainland China, and the speaker has experienced being contacted by authorities with warnings about the activity
“there is a lot of risk doing what I do in China uh yes there have been times where I stay up at night there have been times where I've had knocks at the door that I didn't expect and um it was like a delivery person or it was the wrong door [2:10:16] and I've been I've thought okay this is it and I've Gra grabbed my grabbed my computer and hidden my computer and but then it's uh hasn't been a problem and um the authorities know I exist and I've been spoken to are more than one occasion and the speaking to is basically that you need to be careful”
When Mavin leaves China, his content style and analytical approach will not change, despite feeling less anxious—he will remain grounded and sober in presentation and will not become more aggressive or partisan just because he's no longer subject to safety constraints
“when I leave China and I continue I will will still continue to do the style of um broadcast that I do on China update that won't change I may feel a little less anxious um talking about things because I'll feel much safer but the type of content won't change”
The speaker is considering launching a special weekend 'China Update Interviews' series where he conducts longer-form interviews with China specialists, and also a weekly Sunday roundup episode reviewing the previous week's coverage
“look out this year for the launching of China update interviews which would be a special sort of weekend broadcast also one of the reasons uh I wanted to do this live broadcast is I wanted to see um I wanted to see uh how it went because I've never done one before and perhaps in the future I would like to do a weekly Roundup of the stories that we covered maybe on a Sunday like this where we talk about the major developments from [43:18] from the week and it's a a live broadcast sort of situation”
First-year subscriber retention on the channel is approximately 30% for new viewers who encounter content, suggesting that initial viewer interest from thumbnails converts meaningfully to ongoing engagement
“we've seen that in the in the analytics uh behind like uh behind the scenes it does it does seem that new VI ERS will go oh that's interesting and they'll they'll watch and the once they do watch the retention rate is quite high it's about 30% of new viewers will watch um more videos in the future”
The speaker plans to transition to full-time YouTube content creation as his sole employment once the financial threshold is reached, which should allow for more frequent international travel and expanded coverage beyond China
“my sort of my promise was that I would leave my full-time job and do China update fulltime as my full-time job once I hit 100,000 subscribers we're almost at [40:14] 120,000 we had 100,000 last month it's why we're doing this Q&A um and so yes the plan is this year to transition um I can't do it straight away but I am looking at leaving full-time job and leaving China and doing this is my full-time job”
The speaker believes the channel grew faster than he expected because while he thought it was very niche, people apparently wanted this type of sober, grounded China analysis even if the initial audience was very small
“I'm very much an amazing thing we've got another support um m line Lin 8 um be safe informed conversation with the folks in China um are few and far between and very important thank you $20... I I didn't think it would go to the size I thought it was super Niche but I thought even if a few hundred people watched um it also kept me uh on the game kept me having to continue my research every day um so that I had something to present um and it sort of grown from there”
The speaker specifically spoke with a mid-size developer from Yunnan province who works with local government, and found him to be 'pessimistic on steroids' and 'deeply concerned' about the economy, particularly regarding government fiscal situation and growth challenges in lower-tier cities.
“I was in Beijing about a couple of months ago and I have a a mutual friend who's from um he is from what is the province kunan in the South and he's a sort of a midsize developer who works with the local government and he people say that I'm pessimistic about the economy he was uh much more he was pessimistic on steroids so he's deeply concerned”
Malay is planning to leave China permanently this year and will relocate to base out of New Zealand while conducting international travel for research, interviews, and community engagement, but cannot publicly discuss specific security-related details until after physical departure.
“I will likely be leaving China this year permanently we maybe talk about that later um there are some things um as I've said I will likely be leaving China this year permanently we maybe talk about that later um there are some things for secur security purposes I can't actually talk about publicly but after I've left China um I will be able to um that's just a safety thing while I'm in the country”
The first two years of the China Update channel took two years to accumulate just 1,000 subscribers despite producing daily videos on top of a full-time job.
“the first two years uh it took two years to get a th000 subscribers so the first year I was getting 10 20 views and I was making these videos every day on top of a full-time job”
The speaker started the channel as a one-man operation producing all research, writing, presentation, and editing himself, only recently outsourcing thumbnail design to a third-party contractor who also creates titles
“I am a oneman band everything I [1:47:07] do on China update I do myself the the research the writing which takes up the majority of the work the presentation the editing the only thing I now do the only part that I don't do myself now are the thumbnail so I have a third party that does the thumbnails”
Mavin learned Mandarin Chinese primarily through self-study and immersion rather than formal classes, spending a year of evening study before enrollment, then forcing himself to live only with Chinese-speaking roommates who spoke no English to accelerate speaking ability.
“I've actually uh uh never really formally learned the language like through classes my my language was basically selftaught and then getting to China and trying to speak in these sort of environments”
The first two years of the channel saw extremely slow growth, with it taking two years to reach 1,000 subscribers while operating on top of a full-time job, but the commitment to understanding China accurately motivated continued production regardless of audience size.
“the first two years like I said before the first two years um I was literally only getting it it took two years to get a th000 subscribers so the first year I was getting 10 20 views and I was making these videos every day on top of a full-time job”
Archaeologists have uncovered remains of a 3,000-year-old city in Guangxi autonomous region in the southwest of the country, now confirmed as the earliest known urban settlement in southern China dating to the early Shang Dynasty circa 1600-1050 BC, spanning approximately 23,100 square meters
“archaeologists have uncovered the remains of a 3,000-year old city in Guang siang autonomous region in the southwest of the country now confirmed as the earliest known [0:31] Urban settlement in southern China dating to the early Shang Dynasty Circa 1600 through 1050 BC theong site in k ya autonomous County near Guin spans approximately 23,100 Square met”
The CIA has issued a new assessment suggesting that COVID-19 most likely originated from a laboratory in China, marking a shift from its earlier position that there was not enough evidence to determine the origin
“the CIA has issued a new assessment suggesting that covid-19 most likely originated from a laboratory in China marking a shift from its earlier position that there was not enough evidence to determine the origin”
Tier-one Chinese cities like Beijing and Shanghai have become significantly more developed over the past 9 years, with improved infrastructure, better international food options, and higher quality services, though development has now slowed
“in the last 10 years the tier one cities [1:39:51] have be have definitely become more developed the T1 cities uh uh have become more developed places the infrastructure is in the in the T1 cities is World Class... in the tier one cities the major cities very um I've just seen a lot of development now I think that's now slowing but I I I also [1:40:23] saw that development when I first got to Beijing for example it was very difficult to get good coffee now um even though the milk is not very good they do import good beans and they have BRS that know what they're doing and you have nice cafes”
Malay's New Zealand background includes growing up in a provincial working-class environment where mentorship from key people motivated university attendance, subsequent law degree at Victoria University of Wellington with finance focus, and work in public policy before private corporate litigation practice.
“I'm from New Zealand um I grew up in New Zealand provincial working class I was very fortunate that I had the right people in my life when I was a teenager that made me want something a little bit more that I should go to university so I went to law school in Wellington Victoria University of Wellington where I did my law degree um that was my first exposure to finance as well because it was a finance focused um legal sort of uh training that that I went under I graduated I worked in public policy so I had exposure to policy which I found very interesting and then I moved into private practice as a lawyer um which I enjoyed very much”
Mavin's New Zealand background in a small provincial working-class town shaped his values, and right people in his teenage years made him aspire to do more than his immediate circumstances would have suggested.
“I'm from New Zealand um I grew up in New Zealand provincial working class I was very fortunate that I had the right people in my life when I was a teenager that made me want something a little bit more that I should go to university”
Mavin is 6'4" tall and regularly gets surprised comments from viewers who meet him in person after watching his videos where only his head, shoulders and chest are visible, indicating they did not realize his height from the content.
“the most common thing I get at subscriber meet ups is people say they're very surprised by how tall I am which I always think is funny because in China update videos you only literally see my head maybe my shoulders and my chest but um you have no clue how tall I am how tall or short I am but strange strangely enough every subscriber meet up or if I meet a a viewer in um in public I've been recognized in public a few times the most common thing I get told is that I'm much taller than um than I thought”
Malay's plan includes potentially entering local government politics in New Zealand focusing on reducing local government bloat and scope, rather than national politics, believing local government significantly impacts daily life and requires reform.
“if I was evoc into New Zealand politics which like I do not have any uh intentions at this point I would probably actually like to work with local government because I think local government is underappreciated for how it local government really affects people's lives in a lot of ways and I think local government can really get in the way of business and get in the way of people's lives and I think that our current local government here um has been has interfered I think a lot and uh if I so if I gone into politics it would be local government and basically just trying to reduce the size of the local government government involvement um national government is a different uh different matter but the local government I think um really needs it's a little bit bloated at the moment”
The CIA issued a new assessment suggesting that COVID-19 most likely originated from a laboratory in China, marking a shift from its earlier position that there was not enough evidence to determine the origin
“the CIA has issued a new assessment suggesting that covid-19 most likely originated from a laboratory in China marking a shift from its earlier position that there was not enough evidence to determine the origin”
Malay's native New Zealand background emphasizes not complaining about assumed risks, preferring to accept calculated risks as part of undertaking meaningful work rather than publicly discussing the burden or seeking sympathy.
“I'm I'm very much uh of a culture and an upbringing in New Zealand where you don't complain about things I know that's it seems in the west at the moment that that's not very mainstream it seems that a lot of people like to complain of things complain about things but call me oldfashioned that's sort of how I was raised”
The creator intends to never accept permanent residency in China and does not plan to stay in the country permanently because while he has been and remains open to China as a subject of study, he wants to remain committed to New Zealand as his home country
“I would never accept permanent residency I have no plans on staying in China permanently uh and also uh some people may laugh at this or roll their eyes but um you may call me old-fashioned but uh I believe that um I believe um that if you become a permanent resident of a country you should actually try and become part of that country and I'm very proud and happy to be in New Zealand and it's China is not assist that I want to really be part of or support so I've would never accept permanent residency”
The speaker reads approximately 60% of his weekly material in Chinese and has developed reading speed in Chinese that is almost as fast as in English, partly because his English is getting rusty from extended residence in China
“my reading is very strong I did a master's degree uh at peing University which was taught some courses were taught in English some courses were taught in Mandarin but I did entire courses in Mandarin um about 60% of the uh text that I read every week is uh in Chinese [47:53] uh and so I've been reading Chinese for almost decade now I my reading speed in Chinese is almost if not as fast as my English”
Mavin is considering launching a weekly Sunday review/roundup of China Update stories covered during the week in a live broadcast format with Q&A, which would be conditional on leaving China due to internet limitations.
“one of the reasons uh I wanted to do this live broadcast is I wanted to see um I wanted to see uh how it went because I've never done one before and perhaps in the future I would like to do a weekly Roundup of the stories that we covered maybe on a Sunday like this where we talk about the major developments from from the week and it's a a live broadcast sort of situation uh in which we interact like this”
Channel viewership includes a substantial North American community that consumes China update content during morning coffee routines, and geographically the channel reaches audiences across North America (morning), Europe (evening), Asia (morning), and New Zealand/Australia (late night/early morning depending on daylight savings).
“half of the audience is in North America um we've got a wonderful uh Rich North American community that uh with China update and so uh many say that they listen to China update when they have their morning coffee”
The channel jumped from approximately 88,000 to 120,000 subscribers in January, representing a 36% monthly growth, after which the growth rate slowed but settled at a higher baseline than previous months.
“the channel jumped from I think it was about 880,000 to what is now 120,000 now that speed of growth is slowed back down but there is a new normal which is a little bit higher”
The speaker uses a business model where he is positioned as a consultancy analyst who provides analysis about China to clients with financial and policy interests, supplementing (but not replacing) his YouTube channel revenue.
“since um some a lot of my clients my consultancy are more interested in the financial side and so that the the episode are heavy on the financial side”
The China update community has grown rapidly in recent weeks and months with new regular viewers joining, and the live stream itself has achieved approximately 500-600 concurrent viewers, demonstrating strong engagement despite being the channel's first live broadcast.
“there are a lot of new community members that are watching every day and then of course there are those of you who have been with the channel for years”
The speaker has been producing videos for approximately 5 years with over 1,200 videos, releasing content daily, and the channel grew from a few dozen viewers in the first year to 100,000 subscribers
“I can see you uh here in the chats it's great to have many of you you here... I'll be making this channel now for about 5 years 1,200 videos and this is the first time I have done a uh live broadcast”
The speaker learned Mandarin Chinese primarily through self-study and immersion rather than formal classroom instruction, studying for a year before arriving in China and then forcing himself to live with Chinese roommates who spoke no English to accelerate speaking ability
“I speak no Chinese at this point... I had a year from when I applied to when I would start the course in Beijing and I was working full-time at that time and so I'd work during the day and then in the evening I would spend a couple of hours [27:44] trying to learn Chinese by myself I've actually uh uh never really formally learned the language like through classes my my language was basically selftaught”
The speaker has lived in China for approximately 9 years, with about 4.5 years in Beijing and the rest near Shanghai, and has visited approximately 30 different cities across mainland China but has not been to Tibet or Xinjiang due to security concerns and travel restrictions
“how long have I lived there I've lived lived there I think 9 [1:31:25] years now almost 10 years I think about 9 years and about 4 and 1/2 years was in Beijing Beijing the capital and then the other half is near Shanghai so I've been near the two in or near the two major cities this entire time”
The speaker is 6'4" tall (approximately 190cm), which often surprises viewers who only see his head and shoulders in video footage
“so let me just tell you all now so you're not surprised I'm 6'4 so I think that's about 109 90 CM approximately um I am quite tall”
The speaker does not dye his hair and does not wear a wig; the color variations (strawberry blonde in whiskers, lighter in hair) are natural and due to age-related greying happening first in facial hair
“no I don't wear a wig this is my hair this is my hair and I don't dye my hair either like um this is my natural hair color... the secret is I'm under 40 that's my secret to not having gray hair”
The speaker enjoys dogs more than cats, particularly large dog breeds like Labradors, Golden Retrievers, and Dobermans, and would like to own a big dog in New Zealand where there is space and infrastructure to support them
“I love dogs I like cats um you know cats are nice but I really love dogs I like um I like all dogs my mother has small dogs and they they're very cute and they're nice but I and I actually like pugs they are quite a [17:16] small breed but for me um I like big dogs personally in Asia I've lived in Asia for almost a decade it's difficult to have um big dogs”
The speaker had no interest in doing live streams for many years due to thinking he was not interesting enough as a person and preferring to focus viewer attention on China analysis rather than personality
“for the longest time um I never really thought to do a live stream and one of the reasons for that was I thought that I wasn't particularly interesting and um that the majority of viewers were really just there for the updates on China and I've always tried to produce content that was um sort of quite dense um very information focused very sober”
Mavin intends to do another Q&A special when the channel reaches 150,000 subscribers as a way to continue celebrating milestones and interacting with the community
“maybe in the future there'll be um special uh weekend review episodes on a Sunday which would also be a live stream so I'll give some thought uh into that but like I said fortunately I took the time to say my thank yous uh before uh very much from the heart and deeply appreciated um maybe I was told that at the end of these questions there was a quick fire round so I'll quickly perhaps go through some of these quick fire questions and then um perhaps we can um end it here I'm seeing I'm seeing make it monthly part two would be great um maybe 150k special”
The speaker reads all or most viewer comments on the YouTube channel daily and attempts to reply to some, though the YouTube comment interface makes this difficult and he misses many comments
“I do read all the comments by the way so I try every day and now the comments are getting there a thousand a day but I still try to read all the comments or at least most of the comments I try to reply to some comments um I'm I miss comments because actually the the system that YouTube uses for the for the creators to go through the comments is actually suboptimal I actually miss a lot of comments”
Mavin currently holds an H1 or similar business visa in China renewed every two years, and is working full-time on China Update while maintaining his full-time job
“I do not have permanent residency so I I I I work and I have this as a business so I have a special Visa which is renewed every two years um it was just recently renewed”
The speaker has produced over 1,200 videos over the course of 5 years, releasing new episodes at a consistent time (8:30 PM Beijing time) six days per week, with only two instances of taking a full weekend off in the past three years.
“five years 1,200 videos and this is the first time I have done a uh live broadcast”
The creator's brother is with him during the livestream and is helping with logistics
“my brother is actually sitting with me so I'm going to just talk to him for a moment”
The retention rate for new viewers who watch one China Update video is approximately 30%, meaning about 30% of first-time viewers go on to watch additional videos, which indicates strong content engagement beyond initial click-through.
“the retention rate is quite high it's about 30% of new viewers will watch um more videos in the future”
The speaker attended law school in Wellington at Victoria University of Wellington, where he received finance-focused legal training and developed exposure to policy and finance.
“I went to law school in Wellington Victoria University of Wellington where I did my law degree um that was my first exposure to finance as well because it was a finance focused um legal sort of uh training that that I went under”
The speaker worked as a lawyer in private practice in corporate litigation after law school, before deciding to pursue China expertise through graduate study.
“I graduated I worked in public policy so I had exposure to policy which I found very interesting and then I moved into private practice as a lawyer um which I enjoyed very much”
The speaker would prefer to have a large dog (like a Labrador, Golden Retriever, or Doberman) rather than a small dog, and this aspiration depends on future life circumstances including potential marriage and spouse preferences.
“I like um I like all dogs my mother has small dogs and they they're very cute and they're nice but I and I actually like pugs they are quite a small breed but for me um I like big dogs personally in Asia I've lived in Asia for almost a decade it's difficult to have um big dogs there especially because I'm traveling a lot but if I was to ever come back to New Zealand permanently which would eventually happen at some point in the future you can have you've got Parks it's very green you relatively large properties in the suburbs and so I would definitely have a big dog something like a a labrador um or a golden retriever Doberman”
The speaker is not currently married and hopes to be married in the future with the ability to raise children in New Zealand, which he describes as a wonderful place for raising children (though 'a little bit boring' for people in their 20s).
“I'm not married currently but I hope to be married one day and to start a family very much so um na'vi uh $20 donation thank you very much glad to hear you will be uh relocating your work is um uh crucial and I'm uh concerned about your safety their”
Mavin receives dozens of emails and comments per week asking whether he wears a wig or dyes his hair, which he attributes to the color difference between his strawberry-blonde hair (appearing lighter in natural light) and his darker facial hair with gray whiskers.
“I still I get this dozens of times a week people ask if I dye my hair or whether I have a wig uh which I I thought of all the stuff we discuss on the channel I I've always thought this a strange thing to be um concerned about so let me just once again say for the record um no I don't wear a wig this is my hair”