Iran is now making twice as much oil money since war began | Fareed's Take
What this covers
CNN’s Fareed Zakaria examines the state of play in the Iran war and discusses which countries are benefitting from the conflict right now.
Former State Department official Richard Haass and journalist Zanny Minton Beddoes discuss the latest news from Iran, including the rescue of an injured US airman and President Trump’s profane social media threat to Iran.
0:00 Fareed says Iran’s military was in very bad shape at the start of the current war 3:20 Is Trump misreading the situation at the Strait of Hormuz? 4:59 Which countries are benefiting from the Iran conflict? 5:52 Is bombing Iranian infrastructure a good idea? 9:08 British journalist says Trump’s latest Iran threat is “unhinged”
Watch more CNN here: https://cnn.it/4kh5RPe
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The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, though operationally successful in degrading Iranian military capabilities, has strategically backfired by strengthening Iran's economic position, destabilizing the Middle East, and creating a situation where Trump has no viable options without escalating costs.
- Iran's military was already weakened and posed no imminent threat; the war was opportunistic regime change, not defensive necessity
- Iran now earns twice its pre-war oil revenue and additional strait-closure tolls, funding military rebuilding
- Threatened escalation against energy infrastructure will only increase Iranian resolve and oil prices, trapping Trump in a strategic corner
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Going after Iran's energy infrastructure raises fundamental legal questions because what Iran has shown is its willingness and ability to respond in kind against the water plants and energy infrastructure of all of its neighbors.
“What you raise is the idea of going after infrastructure. I think it does raise fundamental legal questions, also raises real policy questions, because what Iran has shown is its willingness and ability to respond in kind against the water plants, the energy infrastructure of of all of its neighbors, whether individual soldiers would balk.”
The Strait of Hormuz is not closed to all traffic; it is open to Iranian oil, which is flowing freely, especially to China.
“The strait is not closed. It is open to Iranian oil, which is flowing freely, especially to China.”
Donald Trump effectively admitted that the U.S. does not need to be in the Middle East for its own defense, but is there to help its allies, and notably, none of America's European or Asian allies were consulted, and many have spoken out against the war.
“Donald Trump effectively admitted this on Wednesday. We don't have to be there, but we're there to help our allies. It's worth noting that none of America's European or Asian allies were consulted, and many have spoken out against the war.”
Europe loses as it faces crushing energy costs due to oil price increases and Trump demands that NATO fight his war and threatens to pull out of the organization if it doesn't.
“Europe loses as it faces crushing energy costs, and Trump demands that NATO fight his war and threatens to pull out of the organization if it doesn't.”
Trump has no good options regarding Iran: if he escalates with more bombing runs, Iran will likely respond by damaging more oil installations, raising oil prices; if he declares victory and withdraws, the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain closed.
“President Trump, if he tries to escalate, it is likely that Iran, which has already shown that it will escalate itself, will damage more oil installations. The price of oil will go higher. If he somehow declares victory and moves away, then the straits are likely to stay closed.”
Iran now makes about twice as much on its daily oil sales compared to before the conflict due to higher prices and the war's disruption.
“The net result of the war is that Iran now makes about twice as much on its daily oil sales, compared to before the conflict.”
Reports suggest that Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu sold Trump on the war not because Iran was an imminent threat, but because its unprecedented weakness provided an opportunity to strike hard to affect regime change.
“In fact, reports suggest that Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu sold Trump on this war, not because Iran was an imminent threat, but because its unprecedented weakness provided an opportunity to strike hard to affect regime change.”
The Strait of Hormuz, which was free and open despite many threats through 47 years of US-Iran tensions, is now blocked by the new Iranian leadership.
“The Strait of Hormuz, which was free and open despite many threats through 47 years of Us-Iran tensions, is now blocked by the new leadership, whom Trump terms much more reasonable.”
Before the war began in late February, in June 2025, Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities had been completely and totally obliterated by a 12-day bombing campaign by U.S. and Israeli forces using American stealth bombers and 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs.
“Before the war began in late February. In June 2025, Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities had been, in President Trump's words, complete and totally obliterated by 12 day bombing campaign by U.S. and Israeli forces using American stealth bombers and 30,000 pound bunker busting bombs.”
America's Gulf allies now face a far more unstable and tense environment than they did before the war, as their business models require peace, stability, and economic integration.
“America's Gulf allies now face a far more unstable and tense environment than they did before the war. Their business models require peace, stability, and economic integration.”
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had mended ties with Iran in 2023 to calm geopolitical waters to pursue his ambitious modernization program, but this progress is now in jeopardy as oil exports are crippled and the region has shifted from a path toward stability to a cauldron of conflict.
“Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had mended ties with Iran in 2023 because he wanted to calm geopolitical waters to pursue his ambitious program of modernization. Today, all that progress is in jeopardy as oil exports are crippled and the region has gone from having a path to be an oasis of stability rather than a cauldron of conflict.”
Infrastructure targeting raises policy questions beyond legality, and Trump's social media post urging these attacks does the opposite of reassuring partners and allies and does not intimidate Iran.
“I would think, this does the opposite of reassuring our partners and allies. And I don't think it intimidates Iran. Let me just, read for those who, who have missed it. This is a Trump tweet that Richard is referencing.”
The 86-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei, who famously banned the development of nuclear weapons, was killed and replaced by his son, who is said to be more hardline than his father.
“The regime has not fallen. Key leaders have changed for the worse. The 86 year old Ayatollah Khamenei, who famously banned the development of nuclear weapons, was killed and replaced by his son, who is said to be more hardline than his father.”
Russia is the obvious winner from the conflict, as it will make billions of extra dollars every month as the price of oil rises and America waives sanctions against it.
“The obvious winner is Russia, which would make billions of extra dollars every month as the price of oil rises and America waives sanctions against it.”
Ukraine loses as weapons it needs are diverted to the Middle East due to the war.
“Ukraine loses as weapons it needs are diverted to the Middle East.”
The operational success of the U.S. military in conducting the rescue mission was extraordinary, but this does not necessarily mean the United States is winning the war strategically, and there is a strong argument that the U.S. is not.
“First of all, you're right. The rescue mission was operationally extraordinary, and it's consistent with this war, with the operational capabilities of the U.S. military have been have been phenomenal. But, all that said, it doesn't necessarily mean the United States is winning the war strategically. There's a strong argument. We are not.”
If threatened bombing runs against Iran's energy infrastructure were actually carried out, it would not deter Iran but would instead increase Iran's resolve to maintain the Strait of Hormuz closure.
“But if those threats were to be carried out, I don't for a second think that it would do anything other than increase Iran's resolve to maintain the straits being closed.”
China gains from the conflict as America gets mired in another Middle Eastern conflict and loses its focus on Asia, while Beijing's massive investments in green technology shield it from many of the war's costs, and China appears to the world as a more responsible, less disruptive superpower.
“China games as America gets mired in another Middle Eastern conflict and loses its focus on Asia. Meanwhile, Beijing's massive investments in green technology shielded from many of the costs of this war, and it appears to the world as a more responsible, less disruptive superpower.”
Iran was in very bad shape militarily and its economy was destroyed by the tightening of sanctions and its own corrupt regime, making it hardly arguable that Iran posed a threat to its neighbors, let alone to the United States, which sits roughly 6,000 miles away.
“In other words, Iran was in very bad shape militarily. In addition, its economy was a mess destroyed by the tightening of sanctions and its own corrupt regime. Hardly anyone could argue that Iran posed a threat to its neighbors, let alone to the United States, which sits roughly 6000 miles away.”
Trump's social media post states: 'Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Open the fucking street, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah.'
“Tuesday will be power Plant day and Bridge Day all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Open the fucking street, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah.”
President Trump stated that after a few more bombing runs, the strait will open naturally because Iran will want to export its own oil, but this misreads the situation.
“President Trump says that after a few more bombing runs, the strait will open naturally because Iran will want to export its own oil. This misreads the situation.”
Iran charges a reported $2 million per ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, generating hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue every month, enough to rebuild its military and more.
“In addition, if it continues to charge a reported $2 million per passing ship, Tehran will make hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue every month, enough to rebuild its military and more.”
The Trump post about bombing Iran's infrastructure sounds unhinged and is profoundly shocking, even by Trump's standards.
“And it is I mean, I use this word advisedly. It sounds unhinged that that is, the president of the United States is just profoundly shocking. And I think we've all become somewhat inured to statements by the president, the United States. But even by his standards, that was very shocking.”
In general, the Revolutionary Guards, who have always been more militant, seem to be ascendant in the new Iranian leadership, which makes sense in times of war.
“In general, the Revolutionary Guards, who have always been more militant, seem to be ascendant, which makes sense in times of war.”
Israel's Atomic Energy Commission concluded that Iran's nuclear project setback can continue indefinitely as long as Iran does not get access to nuclear materials, and that access was actively being denied.
“And the same goes for its missile program. That conclusion was reiterated by Israel's Atomic Energy Commission, which added that the achievement can continue indefinitely as long as Iran did not get access to nuclear materials, and that access was actively being denied.”
Trump closed his announcement at the start of the war by urging the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the regime, a call echoed by Netanyahu.
“Why else would Trump have closed his brief announcement at the start of the war? By urging the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the regime? A call echoed by Netanyahu in his own message”
NATO is a defensive alliance and did not fight in the wars in Korea, Vietnam, or Iraq, so Trump's demand that NATO fight in Iran represents a departure from the alliance's charter.
“It's worth noting that NATO is a defensive alliance and did not fight in the wars in Korea, Vietnam or Iraq.”
Individual U.S. soldiers are unlikely to balk at orders to target energy infrastructure because some argue energy contributes to military or leadership activities, placing the matter in a gray area of legal interpretation.
“Individual soldiers would balk. I think that's unlikely, simply because there are those making the argument that because energy, for example, somehow, contributes to military activities or leadership activities. My guess is it's in something of a gray area”
Israel's campaign against the Iran-backed militias that supported the Syrian government played a part in the collapse of that regime in December 2024.
“Finally, Israel's campaign against the Iran backed militias that supported the Syrian government played a part in the collapse of that regime in December 2024.”
Iran's military capabilities had been substantially weakened by separate Israeli air campaigns in 2024, which killed key Revolutionary Guard leaders, destroyed air defenses, and struck ballistic missile facilities.
“Iran's military capabilities had been substantially weakened by separate Israeli air campaigns in 2024, which killed key Revolutionary Guard leaders, destroyed air defenses and struck ballistic missile facilities.”
Israel heavily bombed Hezbollah, killing several layers of its top leadership and, by many analyses, crippling the military strength of the organization.
“Israel also heavily bombed Iran's most deadly militia ally, Hezbollah, killing several layers of its top leadership and by many analyzes, crippling the military strength of the organization.”
Israel's defense forces head stated that Iran's nuclear project was set back by years, and the same applies to its missile program.
“The head of Israel's defense forces agreed with Trump, saying, we have set Iran's nuclear project back by years. And the same goes for its missile program.”
Trump's frustration with the Iran situation is evident because he has no good options, and Iran clearly has the upper hand in strategic terms.
“I think this is a mark of his frustration and his frustration with a situation where Iran clearly has the upper hand in strategic terms because he has no good options.”