How War in Ukraine is Destabilizing North Korea
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Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, North Korea has been providing the Kremlin with weapons - particularly artillery shells and ballistic missiles. Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un have become good friends, and Russia has even implied a military partnership with North Korea where they would be willing to provide nuclear missiles on the Korean Peninsula.
However, there is more than meets the eye. Watch this documentary on North Korea to learn how the War in Ukraine could end up destabilizing the Kim regime.
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North Korea's weapons sales to Russia create an illusion of geopolitical strength while actually destabilizing the regime through food insecurity and economic hollowing, making internal collapse more likely than external military threat.
- North Korea has sacrificed food production for weapons manufacturing, exacerbating chronic food insecurity affecting 70% of the population
- Dictatorships collapse from internal pressure when elites extract too much from the population, not from external military pressure
- North Korea's dependence on Russian food imports in exchange for weapons creates a fragile arrangement vulnerable to sudden collapse if Russia withdraws support
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Historically, dictatorships have fallen not usually because of excessive pressure from the outside, but instead by consuming themselves when they become too confident and push their own people too far past the breaking point they are willing to tolerate.
“Historically, dictatorships have fallen not usually because of excessive pressure from the outside, since usually, most other nations aren't concerned enough to physically intervene against an isolated dictatorship, though a few dramatic examples from recent world history might tend to make us think otherwise. Instead, dictatorships more often than not end up consuming themselves by becoming too confident and pushing their own people too far, past the breaking point they are willing to tolerate.”
Wide-scale famines have happened within the past generation to the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire before them, due to similar underlying reasons of dictatorial regimes prioritizing production of strategic goods like steel, iron and coal over food security.
“Such scenarios should not be taken lightly, considering that such wide scale famines have really happened within the past generation, such as to the Soviet Union, and to the Russian Empire before them, for similar underlying reasons. While the Soviet Union was trumpeting the production of basic goods such as steel, iron and coal as measures of success to project strength to the outside world, they apparently forgot about the basic importance of things like food security and internal cohesion.”
No nation has ever put itself in a place of lasting power by hollowing out its own infrastructure and making itself more dependent on others for basic necessities.
“No nation has ever put itself in a place of lasting power by hollowing out its own infrastructure and making itself more dependent on others for basic necessities.”
North Korea has transferred massive quantities of weapons to Russia in recent years, particularly artillery shells and ballistic missiles, with more than 13,000 shipping containers full of munitions traveling between North Korea and Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine.
“In recent years, North Korea has been seen transferring massive quantities of weapons to Russia - particularly artillery shells and ballistic missiles. And since the start of the war in Ukraine, more than 13,000 shipping containers full of munitions have been seen traveling between North Korea and Russia”
Western weapons suppliers are currently willing to fill contracts up to the limits of existing infrastructure, but most of them are very hesitant to make further capital investment in building more factories or production capacity to scale things up, fearing they will not see a return on those investments.
“What we actually see are large weapons contracts being made available, but with regular suppliers hesitant to take them on or fulfill them quickly. Western weapons suppliers are currently willing to fill contracts up to the limits of existing infrastructure, but most of them are very hesitant to make further capital investment in building more factories or production capacity to scale things up, fearing that they will not see a return on those investments.”
North Korea has always struggled to produce enough food throughout almost its entire history since being split from South Korea.
“North Korea has always struggled to produce enough food throughout almost its entire history since being split from South Korea.”
The war in Ukraine is destabilizing North Korea from the inside out by tempting them with weapons sales profits, exacerbating severe economic problems and positioning the nation for a major food crisis.
“The war in Ukraine appears to be slowly destabilizing North Korea from the inside out. It's making North Korea look temporarily stronger on the surface, with fat coffers freshly laden with large profits from weapons sales. But down below, this temptation to pursue quick, easy money in a small, isolated economy, is exaggerating already severe economic problems, and positioning the North Korean nation for what could be one of its largest food crises, ever.”
We are seeing the crumbling of nuclear powers from the inside out, and they are being defeated in the only safe way they can be defeated without launching their doomsday weapons in retaliation.
“It seems that we are seeing the crumbling of nuclear powers from the inside out, and they are being defeated in the only safe way they can be defeated without launching their doomsday weapons in retaliation.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's International Food Security Assessment published in September 2022 estimated that close to 70% of North Korea's population was 'food insecure.'
“the U.S. Department of Agriculture's International Food Security Assessment published in September 2022 estimated that close to 70% of North Korea's population was 'food insecure,' a fairly normal stat for North Korea.”
When the center is hollow, it doesn't matter what material the surface is made out of—it might look intimidating and impenetrable from the outside, but just a little pressure and it will collapse in on itself.
“Always remember - when the center is hollow, it doesn't matter what material the surface is made out of. It might look intimidating and impenetrable from the outside - but just a little pressure, and it will collapse in on itself.”
When evaluating the strength of a dictatorship like North Korea, one must not look at its comparative strength to other nations on the outside where conflict is exceedingly unlikely, but instead should look to the internal strength and sustainability of the dictatorship itself.
“So when evaluating the strength of a dictatorship, like North Korea, one must not look at its comparative strength to other nations on the outside, where a conflict is exceedingly unlikely to ever take place. Instead, they should look to the internal strength and sustainability of the dictatorship itself.”
North Korea is no different from and no less short-sighted than the Soviet Union, and the regime has been lucky to avoid catastrophic harvest failures, but all it takes is for them to get unlucky once for the regime to potentially come crashing down.
“And North Korea is no different, and no less short sighted. For years North Korea has played these odds, and gotten lucky. But all it takes is for them to get unlucky once for the regime to potentially come crashing down.”
The arrangement where North Korea trades food production for weapons production in exchange for food shipments from Russia is inherently insecure because if Russia thought exchanging food production for weapons production was a good gamble, Russia would have done it themselves.
“But such an arrangement is inherently insecure. After all, if Russia thought exchanging food production for weapons production was a good gamble, they would have done it themselves.”
If the United States, the largest economy in the world, sees the cost of building further military infrastructure to supply the specific weapons needed for the war in Ukraine as more risky than its worth, how could North Korea, one of the world's smaller economies, possibly afford to take on such risks?
“And the question is, if the United States, the largest economy in the world, sees the cost of building further military infrastructure to supply the specific weapons needed for the war in Ukraine as more risky than its worth, how could North Korea, one of the world's smaller economies, possibly afford to take on such risks? Obviously, they can't.”
Most assessments of how Russia's invasion increases North Korea's geopolitical power are based on an extremely short term view of world history and geopolitics, and do not align with full reality once all factors are taken into account.
“Ever since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many people have been concerned about how Russia's actions are increasing North Korea's geopolitical power due to the ongoing weapons deals between the two nations. But most such assessments are based on an extremely short term view of world history and geopolitics. And our question to analyze today is, do these concerns actually align with the full reality, once all factors have been taken into account?”
Russia is relying on North Korea for weapons delivery precisely because Russia's own domestic capacity is not sufficient for Russia's needs, yet North Korea is a much smaller and much more limited nation than Russia by every measure.
“Russia is relying on North Korea for weapons delivery precisely because their own domestic capacity is not sufficient for their needs. And yet, North Korea is a nation that is much smaller and much more limited than Russia is, by every measure.”
Kim Jong Un is gambling on a future of warfare and only on that future, hindering his options if the dictators' worst nightmare comes to fruition and peace in Ukraine is actually achieved.
“Kim Jong Un is gambling on a future of warfare - and only on that future, hindering his options if the dictators' worst nightmare comes to fruition, and peace in Ukraine is actually achieved.”
A starvation crisis caused by food shortages cannot be reversed quickly because food can't be produced in an instant—you have to wait for it to grow.
“What makes this especially perilous for North Korea is that a starvation crisis caused by food shortages cannot be reversed quickly. Food can't be produced in an instant; you have to wait for it to grow.”
Artillery shells require resources and people to create them, and for every effort invested in creating military gear, something else is being set aside that could be created instead.
“Well, artillery shells don't appear out of thin air. They require resources and people to create them. And for every effort invested in creating military gear, you are setting something else aside that you could be creating instead.”
North Korea always was and always will be in a position where they are not militarily strong enough to stand up to the United States, let alone the combined west.
“North Korea already was, and always will be, in a position where they are not militarily strong enough to stand up to the United States, let alone the combined west.”
Soon, we could be watching the collapse of modern dictators in the same way the generations before us watched the collapse of their dictators in catastrophic and successive fashion.
“Soon, we could be watching the collapse of our modern dictators, in the same way the generations before us watched the collapse of their dictators in catastrophic and successive fashion.”
North Korea has received military protection agreements and potential access to Russia's nuclear missiles, which on the surface raise fears that North Korea is on the warpath.
“Certainly, North Korea has received some things of value from Russia, like military protection agreements, and potential access to Russia's nuclear missiles. And on the surface, those things raise fears that North Korea is potentially on the warpath.”
Data brokers sell personal information without people's knowledge to the highest bidder, making available full names, emails, home addresses, health records, and information about relatives.
“Many people see our data as valuable, particularly scammers and spammers, the last people we would want knowing all our personal details. They're often able to buy our information from data brokers, who sell our information, without our knowledge, to the highest bidder. Like a real life 1984 experience, your full name, email, home address, health records, your relatives … for most of us, it's all out there, just waiting to be purchased.”
North Korean weapons supplies prevent Russia from getting too close to total collapse too quickly, giving Russia a chance to stay in the fight long enough for western nations to hopefully eventually lose interest and allow Russia to win the war.
“From the Russian perspective, North Korean supplies are preventing Russia from getting too close to total collapse, too quickly, giving them a chance to stay in the fight long enough for western nations to hopefully eventually lose interest and allow Russia to win the war.”