Rory Stewart Attempts to Explain the History of Israel-Palestine in 10 Minutes

Hamas emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood tradition and functions as an Islamist organization with conservative social codes, though it does not legally impose them entirely on the Gaza population; Hamas's brand was built on being cleaner and less corrupt than the previous Fatah government.

“hamus is is a something that emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood and different to the pl and fat it was from its beginning an islamist organization very much sort of I'm not I mean it's a misleading way to put it but it's in the broad tradition of the Muslim Brotherhood and even the Taliban it's a group that very much Prides itself on religion it's has very conservative social codes but it's not imposing them entirely I mean there's been some examples of it but it's not legally imposing them on the population there their brand was being cleaner less corrupt than the previous government”

Hamas now talks about a right of return rather than elimination of Israel, though deep anti-Semitic rhetoric and hate speech continue to emanate from Hamas.

“I mean it's changed it now talks about a right of return but there is deep deep anti itic rhetoric hate speech coming out of Hamas and all sort of thing um”

Iran is very closely associated with the Hamas attack and is boasting about its role, with Ayatollah meeting with Hamas leaders, and Iranian funding flowing into Hamas, so there is risk of Israeli government and others taking retaliatory action against Iran.

“Iran is very closely associated with this Hamas attack and is boasting about the fact that Ayah met with the leader of Hamas um that Iranian funding is going in so you can expect a risk of the Israeli government and others taking retary action against Iran”

The terrorist attack on the music festival where approximately 250-260 civilians were killed represents the most violent attacks Hamas has ever conducted and the deadliest attack Israelis have endured, which is why Israelis are calling it '9/11 plus Pearl Harbor in one.'

“the latest attacks by Hamas which have been bigger and more violent and more deadly than anything we've seen from them before and the anything the Israelis have endured before which is why they're calling it 911 plus Pearl Harbor in one”

Qatar is criticized by Israeli politicians for providing support to Gaza but is often secretly encouraged by factions within the Israeli government to continue providing humanitarian support because those factions do not want a humanitarian crisis, creating an internal Israeli contradiction.

“Qatar is a very odd example of this Qatar is criticized Often by Israeli politicians for by providing support to Gaza but then often says that behind closed doors they're encouraged to continue to provide support to Gaza by factions within Israeli government because they don't want a humanitarian crisis there”

As Israel has become economically more powerful and Saudi Arabia and the UAE have developed greater confidence in Israel, with Trump driving through the Abraham Accords that normalized relations between Israel and key Gulf States, the Palestinians have become very much marginalized, and the two-state solution has become increasingly implausible.

“but it's also that as you say as Israel's become economically more and more powerful and Saudi and UAE and others have developed confidence Trump drove through the Abraham Accords which effectively normalized relations between Israel and some of the key Gulf States meaning that the Palestinians had very much been marginalized and definitely as alist Bert says you know when I was in Jordan there was a palpable sense that people felt it no longer was anything that anyone was concentrating on and the two-state solution felt increasingly implausible”

Before the recent attacks, the main focus in Israel was internal political conflict between liberals and conservatives regarding the Israeli government's populist direction, judicial reforms, and the far-right positions of finance minister Smotrich, rather than Palestinian security threats.

“and most of the focus in Israel as we picked up on the Pod over the last few months has actually been not about palestin it's been an internal Israeli fight between liberals and conservatives to do with challenging the way in which the Israeli government is moving in a populist Direction has brought in far-right people like a man called smotrich the finance minister pushing to overturn the independent Judiciary in Israel”

Palestinians from the Palestinian Authority point of view acknowledge there has been a terrorist attack and do not condone the killing of civilians; however, they argue that Gaza is experienced as a prison camp with no ability for people to go in and out, a humanitarian disaster lacking basic supplies, and that the root of the violence is Israeli occupation involving breaking Palestinian territory into tiny enclaves with checkpoints and walls that Palestinians describe as an apartheid state denying them full civil and democratic rights.

“if you want to see the view of I suppose a pretty middleof the road Palestinian politician uh there is a great interview which you'll will share in the links which has just been done on CNN 9 Minute interview uh in which a fata politician gives his views on the situation but broadly speaking from the Palestinian point of view they would say yes there's been a terrorist attack and most of them would say they would not in any way condone the killing of civilians and then the what would then happen is they would then say you need to understand that Gaza is from their point of view a prison camp with really no ability from people to go in and out it's a humanitarian disaster where people lack basic supplies and that at the root of this violence is an Israeli occup ation which Palestinians will then explain and you'll see it better if you're interested in this interview on CNN explains involve breaking tan territory into tiny enclaves checkpoints and what they experience as an aparte State and they call it an aparte State because they feel that they are not being given full civil and Democratic rights and if they were given full civil and Democratic rights the situation would be very different”

The Israeli perspective includes claims that Hamas had a founding charter dedicated to the complete elimination of the state of Israel, that Iran is committed to Israel's elimination, that the 1967 and Yom Kippur Wars were designed to wipe Israel off the map, and that Israel feels marginalized and attacked at UN forums while other countries like China, Zimbabwe, and Cuba face less criticism, leading Israelis to view their security threats as existential.

“the Israeli point of view there are many Israeli points of view but they would start by saying listen understand that these are very serious enemies out there that Hamas back in the 1990s had a founding Charter dedicated to the complete elimination of the state of Israel that states like Iran were committed to the elimination state of Israel that the 67 War and the Yum kipor War were designed basically to wipe them off the face of the map that they feel that they have been uh marginalized and um attacked unfairly at United Nations forums for decades while other countries like China and Zimbabwe and Cuba haven't been attacked in the same way they feel it's an existential threat”

Hamas and elements of the Palestinian movement contain both extreme terrorists with murderous intent and people trying to imagine political settlement with return to 1967 borders, making it a horrifying mixture that requires understanding.

“and the truth is of course that like all these groups there all those things there are appear to be or have been in the past citing more moderate factions of Hamas and you know negotiators have dealt with them and talked to them and that's of the reasons why Norway for example I think has refused to condemn hamus as a terrorist organization and then there are Hamas Deputy ministers on record spreading blood lials about Jews and claiming they sort of mashed up you know Christian babies into mats of biscuits and I mean it's um so it's a a horrifying mixture of extreme terrorists with murderous intent and people who are trying to imagine some kind of political settlement and return to 1967 borders and all this kind of”

The Good Friday Agreement felt unattainable for a long time, but it happened; therefore even if a two-state solution and peace between Israelis and Palestinians seems unattainable today, political hope and engagement must be maintained because such transformations are possible.

“the Good Friday agreement felt unattainable for a long long time I mentioned to you earlier recently watching Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland listening to the people telling their stories they felt it was unattainable but it happened so right now today in the middle of October 2023 a two-state solution and I I saw David Lamy this morning at the conference labor Party Conference he made his speech and absolutely unequivocal support for Israel but also saying that we have to keep having hope that there can one day be a two-state solution where Israelis and Palestinians can live side by side in peace in the current contest that's sounds almost an absurd thing to say but you have to hang on to that hope”

Unlike the fighting in Mosul where the Iraqi Army attempted to retake the city from the Islamic State over a multi-year operation that destroyed most of the city, Israel cannot and should not be expected to attempt house-to-house fighting in a place of 2.2 million people, but Israel will face massive pressure to cut off all forms of support to Gaza, creating a knife-edge between preventing humanitarian catastrophe and sustaining the Hamas government.

“it's not going to be possible for Israel as it were to reoccupy Gaza if you think about the fighting mosul where the Iraqi Army tried to retake mosul from the Islamic State that was a multi-year operation that involved destroying most of the city and I don't think we should be expecting Israel to be attempting to try to do house toh house fighting in a place of 2.2 million people but there's going to be a lot of pressure now being put by Israel on countries to cease all forms of support for Gaza but that of course will also mean that you're on this knife Edge between providing support development support which keeps the hamus government alive but also preventing a humanitarian catastrophe so”

The IRA judged that while bombing in Northern Ireland alone would not force the British out, taking bombs to the British mainland might inject themselves into the peace process, suggesting Hamas may be attempting a similar strategic calculation to force themselves onto the negotiation table.

“when the IRA sort of had the Judgment they they said to themselves that we can bomb away all we want in Northern Ireland uh but unless we actually take these bombs to the the British Mainland we're not going to inject ourselves into this process uh now so I'm I guess I'm throwing this one back to you do you think that part of what's going on is that Hamas are trying to get into the bigger picture start to be considered one of the players in finding some sort of resolution to this or are they so Hardline militant Terror organization that there is no way that this is going to end other than with a bloody long battle between them and the Israelis”

At some point, there must be a return to a serious grown-up political process involving major world powers engaged in putting in hours and effort to try to get people to coexist, otherwise the conflict goes in circles indefinitely.

“ultimately we've got to get to a place where there's a the reestablishment of a a serious grownup political process where major world powers are engaged and involved and put in the hours and the effort to try to get people to coexist otherwise we've had it”

Israelis emphasize that the Israeli Army warns civilians before attacking buildings, and that some argue the territory taken in 1967 is essential for protecting the state of Israel, citing the Golan Heights as artillery positions from which Syrians fired rockets, justifying Israel's need to control territory for realistic defense against Palestinian threats.

“they would emphasize that the isra Army warns civilians before it attacks buildings uh they will emphasize and again there are many different views on this 1967 territory but some Israelis would say the territory they took is essenti for protection of the state of Israel that the Goan Heights for example were artillery positions from which the syrians reigned Rockets down on them and that Israel's right to defend itself involves being very realistic about the significant threat that Palestinians pose”

For the militant end of the Palestinian population, there appears to be no way out, and unless what has happened leads to a political process reengagement, the situation will continue in cycles of war and violence, repeating every few years with different names and escalations.

“that unless what what has happened the reason why Hamas became as powerful as they did within the West Bank was because they felt that the Palestinian Authority Under the fataa party would were going nowhere were giving a lot recognition of Israel Etc without getting anything in return and that that having been done that there they saw no sense of progress at all not I'm not talking about progress towards a two-state solution I'm talking about progress in any shape or form in the reality of their daily lives and that is not going to be addressed between this government uh and the Palestinians it will for now be entirely seen I suspect as a security situation but at some point there has to be a return to a political process otherwise this thing just goes round and round and round and we'll be back in a few years talking about another war and giving another name”

Focus on the Middle East and Israel-Palestine question has been negligible from a time when it used to be one of the most dominant issues of global debate, representing a major shift in international attention and prioritization.

“the focus on the Middle East and the the Israel Palestine question has been negligible from a time when it used to be one of the most dominant issues of global debate”

After the Yom Kippur War, there was little rejoicing in Israel; the failure to foresee the attack was Israel's greatest intelligence failure, with one analyst blaming arrogance, lack of understanding of abundant intelligence, and disregard for the enemy, while military historian John Hughes Wilson described it as confusing political aspirations with hard facts, leading Israel to vow never to make the same mistakes again—yet the same pattern is repeating with the recent Hamas attacks.

“there was little rejoicing in Israel the failure to foresee the attack was the greatest failure in Israel is history one analyst analyst blamed arrogance lack of understanding of the Abundant intelligence and disregard for the enemy the military historian John Hughes Wilson described it as a classic example of confusing political aspirations with hard fact for good or ill Israel would never make the same mistakes again and here we are with and and here again”

A week before the recent Hamas attacks, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that the Middle East had never been so peaceful, because Israel had developed a missile protection shield (Iron Dome) that made it increasingly difficult for Palestinian groups and Hezbollah to fire rockets into Israel and cause damage.

“fast forward to where we were about a week ago and a week ago Jake Sullivan the US National Security adviser was on the record saying the Middle East had never been so peaceful and the reason I think he thought that is that Israel had developed a special missile protection shield which meant it was increasingly difficult for these Palestinian groups to fire either from hisbah Hammer's Rockets into Israel and do damage there hadn't been that number of uh attacks”

The attack will strengthen some people on the right who will say Israelis always needed to be tougher on Palestinians, proving Hamas is a terrorist organization dedicated to complete Israeli destruction, requiring a much harder Israeli response that will undermine voices pushing for peace and remaining voices on the Israeli left.

“there's going to be two opposing tensions one of them is it will strengthen some people on the right who will say we always told you you needed to be tougher on the Palestinians look at this Hamas is revealed as they always have been as terrorists dedicated to the complete extinction of the state of Israel we need to go much much harder and that will undermine some of the voices uh pushing for peace and some of the remaining voices on the Israeli left”

Twitter makes nuanced debate about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict nearly impossible because the platform forces binary positions and does not allow space for acknowledging legitimate grievances on both sides simultaneously.

“I've noticed that already I've been Twitter is the worst place in the world to debate this issue I've discovered that which is why I've stopped debating it on there it's virtually impossible to say anything that is nuanced that is not black and white about this situation”

The Jewish community that dominated the state of Israel 3,000 years ago was displaced by the Romans approximately 2,000 years ago, after which large Jewish communities formed in Iraq, Yemen, Europe (central and eastern Europe, Spain, and Portugal), and many other places.

“going back 3,000 years state of Israel was um dominated by a Jewish community and they were displaced just under 2,000 years ago basically by the Romans and uh large Jewish communities formed then in places like Iraq and Yemen but but also in in Europe central eastern Europe and in Spain and Portugal and in many other places too”

At the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century, the Zionist movement emerged pushing for a Jewish homeland, driven by appalling discrimination and brutal pogroms against Jews over many hundreds of years, mounting particularly in central and eastern Europe in the late 19th century.

“at the beginning of the 20th century end of the 19th beginning of 20th century there was the beginnings of a Zionist movement pushing for a Homeland for the Jewish people driven by the fact that Jews had experienced appalling discrimination and brutal pgms a murder murderous uh attacks on them over many many hundreds of years but mounting particularly in central eastern Europe in the late 19th century”

Gaza is a coastal strip adjoining Egypt and the edge of Israel; Palestinians are divided between the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority in the rest of the territories, with Israel and Hamas having engaged in periodic violent conflicts and reprisals.

“the Gaza Strip which is this bit that runs basically from Egypt along the coast along the edge of Israel and the Palestinians are then divided between this Hamas controlled area which is the Gaza Strip and the rest which is controlled by the former P the fata government uh then there were FAS there were Israeli attacks both uh fights in reprisal against attacks from Hamas AR Gaza reprisals about attacks from hisbah which is another group which is based in southern Lebanon”