The Fed's rate-hiking campaign was justified publicly as fighting inflation, but Gromen has upgraded his estimate from a 5% to a 50-70% probability that the Fed is actually weaponizing the dollar against Russia and OPEC to break oil demand, based on the pattern of the Fed not responding to market dysfunction in treasuries, gilts, and mortgage markets the way it did post-2008.
causalpending
Speaker
Luke GromenEvidence Quote
“if you would've asked me in April, Luke, what are the odds that what the Fed is doing is not purely about fighting inflation... I would've assigned a 5% chance to that maybe... And I think now we're really at this level where it is my base case. I think it's 50, 60, 70% shot.”
Created: 8/11/2026, 1:30:01 AM
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