The 'Switcheroo' scenario resembles Byron Wien's 'surprise list' concept: a prediction that doesn't need to have 50%+ probability to be worth hedging against, only higher probability than consensus expects. Wien looked for ideas with ~30% actual probability that consensus thought had 5-10% probability, and was right about 3-4 out of 10 predictions.
definitionpending
Evidence Quote
“I think this is a Byron wean surprise thing there kind Nam Byron we who was a legend in the investment business at the end of every year who put Byron we's 10 surprises for the new year and he used to explain it by saying I don't believe these are 50% plus chances I just believe that the chances of these things happening is higher than what the consensus believes”
Created: 8/10/2026, 10:50:41 PM
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