In response to an Iran conflict supply shock, the market is exhibiting the same denial pattern it did with COVID: people won't believe that an inevitable outcome is actually happening until it has already manifested, and by that point the lag effect of supply disruption will already be felt through refineries and fuel rationing.
forecastpending
Speaker
Erik TownsendEvidence Quote
“just like the pandemic, what's going on here is people are going to stay in denial...they're just not going to believe that what is clearly inevitable is actually happening until it has already happened...refineries don't have enough crude oil...as we start to feel those real impacts and we are rationing fuel all around the world, I think reality is finally going to set in”
Source
MacroVoices #530 Daniel Lacalle: China and The Us Will Decide The Outcome of The Iran War— Macro VoicesCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:10:01 PM
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