As crude oil prices increase, it sends a macro signal that makes it impossible for the Fed to do anything other than consider a rate-hiking rather than rate-cutting cycle in order to counter inflation; this is the reason gold has been selling off and will continue to sell off.

The uranium market is consolidating similarly to gold; while the Iran crisis is fundamentally bullish for nuclear and uranium (accelerating nuclear renaissance to reduce energy dependency), a broader market selloff in a global energy crisis could cause everything including uranium stocks to decline together.

Time spread positions in crude oil (buying near contracts, selling forward contracts) are performing extremely well, providing leverage and positive carry as the market remains in backwardation.

The UAE pulling out of OPEC signals that the UAE will produce at maximum capacity going forward rather than respecting quotas, and this will likely force Saudi Arabia to increase production as well, suggesting that spare capacity in global oil markets will become a thing of the past and OPEC will no longer be able to manage prices or contain future upside spikes.

Front-month WTI crude oil rallied over 40% from a $79 low two weeks ago to over $110 by Wednesday evening at recording time, following Erik's prediction two weeks prior that a dip was coming and should be bought, with time spreads also performing extremely well.

Iran could use a nuclear equivalent environmental option by opening a pipeline and pumping millions of barrels of oil into the ocean if storage runs out, which would be an environmental disaster and a threat to desalination assets of neighboring countries, giving Iran an extreme leverage point beyond simple storage constraints.

You cannot print energy; unlike the COVID crisis where supply chains continued to function and energy was available despite lockdowns, the current Iran conflict creates a genuine supply constraint that cannot be overcome through monetary expansion, creating a qualitatively different crisis.

There is still an unfilled gap on the DXY chart up to 99.38 from just after the first ceasefire announcement; if Trump orders kinetic military action against Iran (bombs actually drop), this will likely close that gap and spike the dollar to 99.38 or higher depending on the magnitude of the military barrage.

Erik de-risked his gold position significantly on Sunday night above $4,730 by selling more than half his holdings, for the first time in years taking tactical profit, because he expects markets will eventually panic about oil scarcity and cause a pullback in gold before the long-term bull market resumes.

In response to an Iran conflict supply shock, the market is exhibiting the same denial pattern it did with COVID: people won't believe that an inevitable outcome is actually happening until it has already manifested, and by that point the lag effect of supply disruption will already be felt through refineries and fuel rationing.

The S&P 500 has been in a corrective mode after hitting highs near 7200 following the initial ceasefire announcement; Erik took S&P hedges at 7200 and was quickly rewarded, with the market bouncing back just above 7150 early Thursday morning.