Once a society reaches crisis conditions, a branching point emerges with multiple possible outcomes: some societies experience outright collapse with >50% or even 90% population loss and complete political fragmentation; others see elites slaughtered in civil wars and persecutions; yet others see elites cooperate with populations to implement reforms and resolve crises without bloodshed, as in the US Progressive era, New Deal, and British Chartist period.
factualpending
Speaker
Peter TurchinEvidence Quote
“once you get to the crisis it's a CP and whole bunch of different Avenues opens up... sometimes you see outright collapse where more than half of population is gone or sometimes 90% of population uh is gone... but other there other cases where you see the elites pull together and cooperate with the population and get the right set of reforms and policies and resolve situation without um without Bloodshed”
Created: 8/10/2026, 3:59:51 PM
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