Housing is a major economic driver that acts as a late indicator; it has only just started to deteriorate and will force people into illiquid positions where they cannot sell homes because they are locked into low mortgage rates and would face significantly higher rates if selling.

causalpending

Speaker

Ted Oakley

Evidence Quote

one I think housing hasn't really started to hammer it yet but it will and people forget about housing being really a major driver in the in the economy and so when you look at that uh with housing being a driver it's just started to to show see housing comes in late it's a late indicator because it's slow uh same way with employment and so when housing comes in and gets weaker and weaker which we think it will we think it's just started and when that happens and gets you're going to get in a situation where people are locked in in other words they spent too much on a lot of different assets and particularly housing and real estate and they can't they can't be mobile with it

Source

The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted OakleyForward Guidance
Created: 8/10/2026, 11:14:48 PM

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