The stock selection strategy is to identify companies serving inelastic demand that will continue to be used regardless of economic conditions, rather than discretionary or luxury goods

Oil is an outlier because Russia controls significant oil supply and can move prices materially through export decisions, creating additional geopolitical risk to energy prices independent of Fed or economic cycles.

Most market participants and advisors from the past 10-12 years have only experienced the 40-day bear market in March 2020 and lack the experiential framework to handle a slow-burning multi-year bear market; they default to 'keep buying' which will not work.

Earnings for FANG stocks as a group were down 10% year-over-year, with the declines driven primarily by falling advertising revenues and declining visitor traffic rather than cost increases.

Companies are lowering forward guidance and announcing miss expectations relative to old guidance, which masks the severity of actual earnings revisions because investors perceive 'beats' when companies are actually performing worse than six months prior.

Housing is a major economic driver that acts as a late indicator; it has only just started to deteriorate and will force people into illiquid positions where they cannot sell homes because they are locked into low mortgage rates and would face significantly higher rates if selling.

Oakley's conservative income strategy holds approximately 75% in securities maturing within 36 months to capture rising yields in short-term U.S. Treasuries, with a small position in longer-term bonds and exposure to dividend-paying cash flow investments, because he expected rising rates.

Last year valuations were so expensive that even with high assumed earnings growth rates, equity valuations could not be justified; every stock in the opportunity set was overpriced regardless of interest rates or inflation assumptions.

U.S. oil companies are not currently increasing production significantly despite high oil prices because the Biden administration has created regulatory headwinds and ESG concerns have made debt financing difficult; historically oil companies would have been aggressive in pursuing production growth.

Inflation will likely remain in the 5-6% range rather than reverting to 2%, because the Fed and fiscal government injected too much money into the economy over the prior decade; this represents a structural regime change from the prior 10 years.

Bear market recoveries typically begin gradually and accumulate gains over 1.5-2 years before investors realize they are in a bull market; early investors leave 25-30% on the table if they wait for obvious confirmation.

This market is a super-bubble comparable to 1929 and worse than or comparable to 2000 or 1973; everything—stocks, bonds, private equity, real estate, crypto—was simultaneously in a bubble, unlike 2008 which was primarily housing-focused.

The primary short-term headwind to stocks is Federal Reserve policy, but the long-term headwind will be the economy; real recession (with rising unemployment) is still ahead and will force companies to make significant earnings adjustments.

Speculative excesses will not be wrung out of the market until people are 'disgusted' and capitulate; market bottoms occur when investor sentiment hits extreme despair, not when technical levels are reached, and current conditions show investors are far from that psychological state.

Geopolitical and supply-side headwinds in Europe and Far East could create a difficult winter, potentially extending economic weakness; this is an additional tail risk beyond U.S. domestic factors.

The Federal Reserve has a very poor track record, making its guidance and communications unreliable; past Fed statements and predictions have repeatedly proven false, so investors should not base positioning on Fed guidance.

Natural gas prices in Europe are 10-20 times higher than normal cycle levels, putting European energy-intensive industries and consumers in severe stress; this represents an ongoing crisis distinct from the U.S. situation.

Europe's energy policy response, including capping Russian oil prices and reversing nuclear policy, may prove more damaging to Europe than to Russia long-term despite being well-intentioned.

In the 2009-2014 shale boom, natural gas companies and MLPs had too much debt despite producing at high volumes, causing bankruptcies and industry consolidation; today's producers are better positioned because they have deleveraged and maintained financial discipline.

Growth stocks that previously warranted 15-18% growth rate assumptions must now be purchased at lower prices because growth rate expectations have been reduced; Oakley will buy growth stocks again, but only at significantly lower valuations.