Insider intelligence (like conversations with congressional officials or military strategists) is problematic for geopolitical prediction for two reasons: (1) it raises legal risks around MNPI (material non-public information), and (2) even insiders with privileged access don't reliably know future decisions—Scott Besson didn't know on April 8 whether Trump would back down the next day despite working directly on the issue, and Assad was uncertain whether he would be toppled.