Prediction markets are currently of limited use to clients mainly because of low liquidity, and they are more useful to the analyst than to the end user because their rigidity — fixing predictions to specific falsifiable dates — narrows their value when the truly relevant cutoff (e.g., a Trump visit) differs from the market's stated date.

causalpending

Speaker

Andrew Bishop

Evidence Quote

the prediction markets will tell you where the tariff level is going to end up on July 31st, right? But what if the cutoff that's relevant is not July 31st?

Source

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War | Odd LotsBloomberg Podcasts
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM

My Notes

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