The Treasury volatility index (MOVE index) is a leading indicator of potential Fed loss of control over interest rate stability; when MOVE starts moving upward, it signals the Fed is losing control of treasury volatility, which is why the Fed deployed 75 billion per day before seeing MOVE spike too high.
factualpending
Speaker
DanielleEvidence Quote
“the leading indicator for that is the move index or the Treasury bond vol in X and that's started to move and then that's when the Fed jumped in [36:23]”
Source
Danielle DiMartino Booth: "Recession Coming? The Fed’s Endgame" (Hedgeye Investing Summit)— HedgeyeCreated: 8/11/2026, 12:48:35 AM
My Notes
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