Danielle
About
Financial analyst and former Federal Reserve official from Texas with expertise in monetary policy, credit markets, and systemic risk
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Claims by Danielle (20 of 23)
One in six US companies today does not have sufficient cash flow to cover one month of lost earnings before interest and taxes, indicating a massive population of 'zombie' companies that would be insolvent without Fed intervention, and these companies will remain insolvent regardless of whether the Fed purchases them because insolvency is a structural problem not a liquidity problem.
The Federal Reserve and Wall Street asset managers have coordinated to prop up asset prices and maintain the narrative that Fed intervention will create a V-shaped recovery, enabling these insiders to reposition their portfolios and talk their books while simultaneously the Fed enables this arrangement, creating a conflict of interest where the system is designed to benefit the top 1% and connected financial institutions.
Private equity firms including Apollo lobbied Congress to allow their portfolio companies with fewer than 500 employees to access the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) despite having loaded them with excessive debt through leveraged buyouts, which is fraudulent misrepresentation of these companies as 'small businesses' eligible for the program.
Baby boomers who have experienced two major stock market crashes (2000s and 2008-9) will attempt to sell their homes as soon as the housing market reopens for showings and open houses, seeking to obtain 'first mover advantage' to liquidate home equity before prices decline significantly due to supply shocks and generational demand mismatches.
A prolonged economic downturn and shift toward consumer frugality will change how Americans fundamentally perceive money itself, moving away from the consumption-dependent culture to one based on savings and cushions, with profound implications for a consumption-driven economy that are currently unappreciated by Wall Street and Washington.
The US dollar will remain strong against other currencies in the interim because global debt buildup in frontier markets, emerging markets, Asia, and Europe is so enormous that these regions are experiencing recession (India first recession in 40 years, Australia first in 30 years) and as long as US Treasury yields remain positive, the dollar will be perceived as a safe haven.
Negative interest rates pose an existential threat to the banking system because they undermine the fundamental business model of banks, which depend on net interest margins; a functional banking system is critical to capitalism, and the US still has one of the last truly functional banking systems in the developed world.
The COVID-19 virus was documented in mid-November in Wuhan, and the US intelligence community knew about it in mid-November, providing five months of data before current assessments, yet there is still no certainty about when the crisis will end, indicating complexity that cannot be predicted despite ample data.
The Fed started rescuing triple-B credit in January 2019 (specifically January 6, 2019), not in response to COVID-19, meaning the current crisis is a continuation of pre-existing policy rather than an emergency response, and the virus provided only the trigger for an already-building collapse.
The Treasury volatility index (MOVE index) is a leading indicator of potential Fed loss of control over interest rate stability; when MOVE starts moving upward, it signals the Fed is losing control of treasury volatility, which is why the Fed deployed 75 billion per day before seeing MOVE spike too high.
The communication speed and breadth via social media and online platforms means Fed actions can no longer be hidden from middle-class, educated investors who understand they are being disadvantaged, unlike the 2008 crisis where information spread more slowly, making this current situation different and less sustainable.
The Federal Reserve's current actions using special-purpose vehicles to purchase corporate bonds and fallen angels likely violate the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which explicitly stipulates the Fed can only own paper backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, specifically Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and this legal question will eventually be resolved in the courts.
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