The market is currently pricing in an aggressive Fed cutting cycle (100% probability of at least one 25bp cut in September, 50% probability of 50bp cut, and further cuts through 2025) primarily because of anticipated economic deterioration rather than successful disinflation, representing a shift from benign to adverse economic scenarios.
factualpending
Speaker
David (Host)Evidence Quote
“the CMA fa Watch 2 was pricing in a 48 or 49% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September”
Source
Matter Of Time Bubble Implodes; What The Next Financial Crisis Looks Like | Diego Parrilla— David LinCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:46:15 PM
My Notes
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