The US dollar appreciated throughout 2022 despite high inflation, which is unusual—currencies typically depreciate during inflation—reflecting that other major currencies (Yen, Yuan, Euro) were in worse condition, making the dollar relatively strong on a comparative basis rather than absolutely.

The market is currently pricing in an aggressive Fed cutting cycle (100% probability of at least one 25bp cut in September, 50% probability of 50bp cut, and further cuts through 2025) primarily because of anticipated economic deterioration rather than successful disinflation, representing a shift from benign to adverse economic scenarios.

US fourth quarter GDP was revised downward from 1.4% to 0.7% annualized; Canada posted worst job losses in 4+ years with unemployment at 6.7% and youth joblessness at 14%; record share of Americans (6% in 2025 vs 5% in 2024) making hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s.

The Congressional Budget Office is projecting that debt held by the government will reach $50 trillion by 2034, which equates to roughly 122% of GDP over the next 10 years, representing a 25 percentage point increase over 2023 levels.

Philip Swagel has served as the director of the Congressional Budget Office since 2019, the 10th director in its history.

Swagel served as assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Department of Treasury from 2006 to 2009 under the George W. Bush Administration and worked on policies to address the global financial crisis, including the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Unrealized losses on investment securities held by U.S. banks far exceed the losses from 2008, indicating potential asset-side fragility in the financial sector despite banks holding more capital than in 2007-2008.

Net interest revenues will constitute almost 40% of individual income taxes by 2034, representing a significant constraint on federal fiscal capacity.

Michael Saylor's convertible bond structures using Bitcoin as an incentive component inspired the Bitcoin bond concept—the idea of using scarce assets as yield kickers or upsides is not new, but applying it to government debt is innovative.

Canada has similar fiscal problems to the US (housing affordability crisis, inflation, cost of living pressures) and the Canadian government faces similar political pressure as a result

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reversed her decision to withdraw from China's Belt and Road initiative by pledging to relaunch Italy-China bilateral cooperation during an official visit, signaling countries are pursuing geopolitical diversification and hedging between US and Chinese spheres.

As societies move from Dalio's stage 5 (populism, polarization, class warfare) toward stage 6, moderates become extinct, and during times of increased hardship people increasingly view others through stereotypical class-based categories rather than as individuals.

City Group and US Bank are forecasting gold demand to rise in coming months, pushing prices toward $2,700 to $3,000 per ounce by 2025.