The risk in current markets is not just low annualized returns but the possibility of sharp multiple compression occurring over 1-2 years (like 1973-74) rather than gradually over 10 years, which would produce large capital losses despite earnings growth.

forecastpending

Speaker

Howard Marks

Evidence Quote

another possibility is that the multiple correction is compressed into a year or two implying a big decline in stock prices such as we saw in 1973 to 74 and 2002 the result in that case wouldn't be benign

Source

On Bubble WatchOaktree Capital
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:51:42 AM

My Notes

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